Moved

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Pretty Grand Larceny

Since we just looked at last year's Giveaway leaders, let's now turn our focus to those thieving Takeaway specialists. As reported previously, it appears that Takeaways are indeed correlated with team performance, so we have a relatively straightforward, clear-cut indicator as to how these players are helping their teams.

Results are from the 2005-6 NHL season.

**Top 10 in Total Takeaways (The Swiper Award)**
Rob BLAKE, COL	89
John MADDEN, N.J	84
Shelon SOURAY, MTL	83
Andrei MARKOV, MTL	81
Antii LAAKSONEN, COL	80
Mike MODANO, DAL	79
Marian HOSSA, ATL	75
Ian LAPERRIERE, COL	74
Daniel ALFREDSSON, OTT	74
Jason BLAKE, NYI	73
Stu BARNES, DAL	73
Saku KOIVU, MTL	73

**Top 5 in 3rd Period & OT Takeaways (The John Havlicek Trophy)**
Andrei MARKOV, MTL	31
Rob BLAKE, COL	31
Tony AMONTE, CGY	30
Brendan MORRISON, VAN	27
Craig RIVET, MTL	26
Henrik ZETTERBERG, DET	26
Karlis SKRASTINS, COL	26
Shawn HORCOFF, EDM	26

Give It Away, Give It Away, Give It Away Now...

Time for some silly stats today - let's look at the leaders from the NHL 2005-6 Regular Season in terms of Giveaways. Who coughed up the puck more often than a cat with bronchitis? Let's have the envelopes, please...

**Top 10 in Total Giveaways (The Roberto Duran Trophy)**
Ilya KOVALCHUK, ATL	127
Ales HEMSKY, EDM	123
Chris PRONGER, EDM	110
Jaromir JAGR, NYR	109
Sergei ZUBOV, DAL	103
Joe THORNTON, S.J	102
Brian RAFALSKI, N.J	97
Marc SAVARD, ATL	94
Mike MODANO, DAL	93
Jason SPEZZA, OTT	93

**Top 5 in 3rd Period & OT Giveaways (The Bill Buckner Award)**
Ales HEMSKY, EDM	42
Ilya KOVALCHUK, ATL	39
Bryan McCabe, TOR	36
Patrick Marleau, S.J	36
Marc SAVARD, ATL	35
Chris PRONGER, EDM	35

As a further refinement, I could add in Time On Ice to try and get a handle on who's logging more giveaways per minute of ice time. And in light of the finding last week that Giveaways actual seem to be correlated with positive results, the impression I get is more that Giveaways are indicative of having the puck more often, and trying to do more with it. As a result, some giveaways occur, but positive offensive plays occur as well, if not more often.

Later today I'll post similar numbers for Takeaways...

Thursday, October 26, 2006

What Makes NHL Teams Win?

As promised, here's a look at a few more extended statistics, and their relationship to the ultimate result - points in the standings for NHL teams*. Today's sheet combines the Hits information discussed yesterday with Giveaway and Takeaway data, along with a combination of the two that I am hereforth proclaiming to be Puck Possession Plus/Minus (don't worry, I don't think the term, or the stat, will last). I thought it might be interesting to subtract the number of Giveaways from a team's Takeaways total, to come up with a rough guide to their ability to seize control of the game. It turns out I was wrong, but I'll include it this one time, anyway.

So what do these numbers (again from the 2005-2006 Regular Season) tell us? Well, the most interesting result is that Giveaways seem to be positively (albeit very weakly) correlated to regular season points. That is, the more Giveaways a team had, the likelier they were to be high in the standings. Typically one would think of Giveaways as "bad" events, likely to cause a team to lose, and while that is certainly true, it is just as likely that a team that has possession of the puck more than the other team, will, over the course of time, also give it up more. After all, look at the Chicago Blackhawks - they had the least number of Giveaways in the NHL last year, but that's more likely a result of not having the puck in the first place very often. Unfortunately we don't have time-of-possession data to index this by, so we don't know the extent to which that argument holds.

Also of interest is the positive correlation between Takeaways and Regular Season Points, which is also positive and slightly stronger than the Giveaways relationship. This makes solid sense; taking the puck away from the other team should momentarily give that team an advantage, and in fact the three worst teams in the league last year (Chicago, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis) were all near the bottom of the Takeaway totals. By comparison, the top three Takeaway teams were Montreal, Colorado, and Atlanta, and all fought down to the wire to make the playoffs (Atlanta unsuccessfully), which perhaps is what fed their zeal to hound the puck.
And before you ask, no, there wasn't a significant correlation between Hits and Takeaways. There were plenty of teams that hit a lot but didn't take the puck (Toronto & Boston), some who took the puck without hitting (Colorado & Detroit), some who did both (Montreal & Dallas), and those who apparently just didn't go after their opponents' puck carriers (Buffalo and Florida).

*I realize it would be best to remove the effect of overtime losses and shootouts from this, and intend to do so in the near future. This is good enough for a start.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Goodbye to Broad Street

In the wake of Bobby Clarke's resignation in Philadelphia, I thought it would be interesting to dig up the total hits dished out by NHL teams last season, and throw that up against their regular season standings to see if there's any correlation between physicality and victory. By the looks of things, time has passed Mr. Clarke by, and hits don't bear any direct result on wins and losses.

The picture below (click to enlarge) outlines the total hits dished out by each team during the 2005-6 Regular Season, compared against their Regular Season point totals. As you can see, the distribution is pretty widespread, with physical leaders like Ottawa(!) and Dallas enjoying triple-digit totals in the standings, while being closely followed by Carolina and Buffalo, who were near the back of the pack in terms of hits. At the bottom end of the standings, you have a similar mix of hockey teams with various amounts of hits.

The correlation values are close enough to 0 to be basically irrelevant, with a result of -0.03 for Hits vs. Regular Season Points. A value of 1 means that the two statistics march up and down together perfectly, whereas a -1 means they move in completely opposite directions. Near 0, the value means there no specific relationship between the two. Edited for clarity 10/26/06.

Coming soon, a followup in this fashion looking at other portions of the game...

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Help Wanted in Philly

Congratulations, Trent Yawney - before the start of the season you were my pick as the first coach to get the Ziggy, as Dick Vitale would say, but instead that honor falls to Ken Hitchcock, who was fired by the Flyers as Bobby Clarke resigned from his GM post. I guess there will be a clearance sale on physical, slow-footed defensemen coming soon...

Friday, October 20, 2006

Stopping Those Shots Off the Draw

As a followup to a piece I wrote early last week regarding faceoff men who generate shots in the offensive zone, it occured to me that the flip side of that coin is just as interesting. On the opposite side of the dot, who are the faceoff men who best prevent shots in their own end? Even in losing a faceoff, there's a big difference between a clean draw back to the point and a puck that's tied up in the middle of a scrum. So who do you want out there protecting a late lead with a faceoff coming up in your own zone?

The screen is for a minimum of 100 defensive-zone faceoffs during the 2005-6 NHL Regular Season, where the opposing team took a shot within 5 seconds of the draw.

Top Lock-Down Specialists (fewest shots)
Mark SMITH, SJS 3.47%
Patrik STEFAN, ATL 3.56%
Matt STAJAN, TOR 4.27%
Niko KAPANEN, DAL 4.33%
Alyn MCCAULEY, SJS 4.60%
Rico FATA, PIT 5.36%
Shane ENDICOTT, PIT 5.41%
Vernon FIDDLER, NSH 5.67%
Jamal MAYERS, STL 5.73%
Bobby HOLIK, ATL 5.77%
Kris DRAPER, DET 5.93%
Todd MARCHANT, ANA 5.93%
Mike SILLINGER, NSH 5.98%
Patrice BERGERON, BOS 6.00%
Shawn BATES, NYI 6.05%

Top Coach-Killers (most shots)
Michael NYLANDER, NYR 19.49% Sidney CROSBY, PIT 17.21% Eric STAAL, CAR 15.56% Mike RIBEIRO, MTL 15.26% Ryan MALONE, PIT 14.60%
Brooks LAICH, WSH 14.58%
Daniel BRIERE, BUF 14.48%
Ryan GETZLAF, ANA 14.00%
Olli JOKINEN, FLA 13.93%
Miroslav SATAN, NIY 13.73%
Saku KOIVU, MTL 13.66%
Kevyn ADAMS, CAR 13.53%
Stephen WEISS, FLA 13.24%
Kyle WELLWOOD, TOR 13.21%
Jarome IGINLA, CGY 12.59%

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Wrist Shot Wonders

Now it's time to look at the top wrist shots from the NHL 2005-6 Regular Season, broken down by range. I've screened for the top 100 players in terms of wrist shots taken, ranked them by overall shooting percentage, and noted particular ranges with extreme high or low values. The graphic below details the first 30 players on that list. And the top sniper from last year turns out to be... (another drum roll, please)

Alex Tanguay, who has taken his game north from Colorado to Calgary, where hopes are high that he will lift a stagnant offense at least up to the level of mediocrity. Tanguay potted 22.2% of his wrist shots last year, nearly double the league-wide average of 11.3%. What's noteworthy with this chart is how many players have particular sweet spots. For instance, Tanguay and Daniel Briere were both very effective from 21-30 feet, but from the 11-20 foot range they actually scored at a below-average pace (18%). Marek Svatos of Colorado, on the other hand, was deadly from 11-20 feet (33%), but didn't score on a wrister from beyond 20 feet all season, on 40 shots.

For those of you who are wondering, Alexander Ovechkin came in 31st in this ranking, at 14.4% The noteworthy thing about his numbers were the high number of wrist shots (194), and his touch from the 31-40 foot range (8 goals on 48 shots).

Click the picture below to enlarge, and keep on commenting and emailing with your suggestions for other pieces of information or refinements to what I've already posted.

As usual, empty net goals are excluded.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

A look inside the NHL's Assists leaders

A post on Kukla's Korner pointed me towards this article at the Denver Post, which discusses how Minnesota Wild Director of Hockey Operations Chris Snow is forging ahead in the quest to take the use of NHL statistical analysis to another level. In particular, he notes wanting to track assists, monitoring how many of a players assists are "first assists" vs. "second assists", the presumption (which I find quite reasonable) being that first assists are a better measure of offensive contribution.

Well Chris, if that's what you need, drop me a line (or, for that matter, any other NHL front-office execs who might be interested). In the meantime, I'll provide a Top 10 listing that might help sort this question out.

Again, I'm looking at 2005-2006 regular season data, empty net goals excluded.

Click to enlarge

So what does this tell us? Well, one obvious point is the prevalence of defensemen getting a large share of 2nd assists, which isn't surprising, and is most likely the result of good breakout passes. I know when I'm playing D in the beer league, that's how I get most of my assists - find the one zoomer on our team, and get him the puck with speed out of our own end. Exceptions to that trend include Niklas Lidstrom, Sergei Zubov, and Tomas Kaberle, all defensemen ranking high in the prevalence of 1st Assists. Edit: Pardon the brain fart there, only Kaberle amongst those 3 shows a relatively high 1st Assist percentage, and he's not among the top 10 in that ranking.

One interesting contrast is between Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson in Ottawa; both are forwards in a highly productive offense, but Spezza benefitted from 2nd assists to a much greater extent than Alfredsson. As always, dig in and let me know what other slices and dices might be worth pursuing here...

Labels: offense, statistics

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Top NHL Slapshot Artists

So who's got the best slap shot in the game of hockey? Well, according to shooting percentage on slap shots only, the answer would appear to be (drum roll, please...) Jonathan Cheechoo of the San Jose Sharks. Last season, Cheechoo scored on 21% of his slapshots, well above the league average of 7.51% for all slapshots, as found in yesterday's article covering Scoring Percentage by Range and Shot Type. Particularly notable with Cheechoo is his 27% scoring rate from the 31-40 foot range, which means he didn't just load up with cheap goals in close to obtain his lofty results (although he did certainly load up within the 10-foot mark).

The interesting thing to note here is the validation that the top goal scorers don't just get their numbers due to taking lots of shots, but that they do appear to score more often when they do shoot. Guys like Jaromir Jagr, Ilya Kovalchuk and Alexander Ovechkin (who ranked 3rd, 5th, and 6th last year in total ice time for forwards) also rank highly in slap shot scroring, at #3, #11, and #12 respectively.

For this study, I screened for the top 100 players from last season in terms of slap shots taken, broke down the results based on range, and summarized to obtain individual scoring percentages as shown in the picture below. Empty Net goals are not included in these figures, and I've highlighted some of the more interesting cells where percentages are high (green) and where they are abnormally low (red).

Just click the picture below to enlarge.

Labels: offense, statistics

Monday, October 16, 2006

Shooting Percentage presented in a brand new way

The latest entry in this series of 21st Century Hockey Analysis covers shooting percentage broken down by range and shot type. For instance, during the 2005-2006 regular season (again excluding empty net goals), over 73,000 shots were fired at an overall scoring rate of 9.88%. Wrist shots from 21 to 30 feet went in slightly less than 10% of the time, but closing that distance to the 11-20 foot range almost doubled the shooter's chances of scoring. Interestingly, slapshots from 10 feet or less don't score significantly more often than the 11-20 foot range, whereas snap shots do indeed jump from 20% to 25%. Perhaps the lesson there is that a quick shot when in close is preferable to winding up for a big blast.

Coming later this week, we'll break down the best and worst shooters in the league against these criteria, and after that, we'll see which goalies have particular strengths and weaknesses as well. Stay tuned!

Labels: offense, shot quality, statistics

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Coyotes get ugly in Nashville

Tonight, rather than crunching numbers, I took in the
Coyotes/Predators game in Nashville. The Preds apparently thought
their exhibition season lasted a week longer than everyone else's, as
they started off 0-3 with horrible goaltending, defense, and special
teams, while the Coyotes have looked awful in recent losses to Detroit and Columbus. Assorted notes below were compiled during the game on my Crackberry...

Start 1st: Decent crowd for the opening faceoff, with the upper and
lower bowls nearly filled, but the club level maybe 1/3rd-filled at
best.

13:11 1st: Incredible patience shown by Jason Arnott on a goal by
Paul Kariya. Scott Walker hit him with a pass as he came down the
slot, but Curtis Joseph had the angle covered and Arnott hits Kariya waiting for an easy back-door tap-in. That's the kind of goal that can get an offense clicking, with smart play getting everyone involved.

7:07 1st: Phoenix looks terrible as Martin Erat gets the puck down in
the corner and has all the time and space he needs to skate out, lose
the puck in his feet, recover it, and put it past a helpless CuJo. To
this point Phoenix has had very little pressure in the Nashville end.

5:45 1st: A good fight at center ice between the Coyotes Josh Gratton and Nashville's Darcy Hordichuk, with Gratton landing the best shots towards the end. And here I thought there wasn't any more fighting in the new NHL...

2:13 1st: A sloppy power play by Phoenix works out after all, as
Fredrik Sjostrom walks in from the boards and puts a wrister far-side
past Tomas Vokoun from near the left faceoff dot.

13:28 2nd: After some good pressure by the Predators, the refs make a pity call on Shea Weber, giving Phoenix a power play which they promptly squander.

10:43 2nd: After killing off Weber's penalty, the Predators get a PP
of their own, and finally cash in off a classic point shot with
traffic in front of Joseph, with Scott Hartnell getting the tip-in. This is turning into a loooong road trip for Gretzky's Coyotes.

7:32 2nd: Ryan Suter scores his first of the season, and the crowd is
starting to have some fun now. CuJo continues to scramble behind a
team that's getting outshot 18-9.

Last minute, 2nd: The Preds are buzzing, but there's also a sign of
why they've given up so many goals early on. During basic 5-on-5
pressure, defenseman Kimmo Timonen swoops down near the crease looking for a goal, but leaving his point unattended. In a 4-1 game, I can't imagine Barry Trotz being thrilled with that...

Intermission: A perfectly timed brat run on my part, as I get back to
my seat just as they are lining up to face off (no kraut, thanks, just
onions and ketchup).

Early 3rd: The crowd is chanting for tacos, which they get if
Nashville scores 5 in a game. Apparently the Predators D wants to
oblige, as Marek Zidlicky takes reckless chances in the Phoenix zone.
Trotz has got to rein those guys in before they play a team that
actually competes.

Mid 3rd: The Coyotes show some professional pride by sparking a few dust-ups including Derek Morris pounding Vernon Fiddler while everyone else was paired up. Sometimes you have to take the victories where you can get them...

Late 3rd: The Coyotes start to get a few shots, but mostly due to
Nashville players getting greedy and looking for another goal, in
particular J.P. Dumont, who looked for a few cherry-picking passes.

End 3rd: Final score 4-1, and I'm betting the Phoenix bus was ready
to roll as soon as the horn blew.

1st Star: Jason Arnott, who kept Nashville on the attack just about
whenever he was out there.
2nd Star: Paul Kariya - plenty of sniping available tonight.
3rd Star: Tomas Vokoun, for not breaking a sweat.

Odds and Ends:

Paul Kariya just doesn't seem to create anything on his own. He can get an accurate wrist shot off quickly given a good pass, but all too often he seems to wait for the action to come to him.
Martin Erat might be the Preds most dangerous offensive player, with a good combination of speed and soft hands.
Gretzky should ask if Jovanovski might be allowed to play with two sticks so he won't be tempted to play his other plodding blueliners.
Up front, Mike Comrie showed some blazing speed along with two-way hustle.
The fans in Nashville are definitely legit NHL fans - they know their players well, and have loads of energy (especially in section 303). Give them a taste of playoff success, and they could own this town, especially considering how the NFL's Titans are doing.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

A slapper, a snapper, or is it all in the wrist?

Here's your Thursday afternoon dose of interesting NHL information. The table below shows all 2005-2006 regular season goals (non-empty net), broken down by shot type and distance. No wonder wrap-arounds always make the highlights, they account for less than 1% of all goals! The highest frequency here is for wristers from 11-20 feet, of which 1,278 were scored accounting for 17.63% of the total.

The second table is a subset of the first, screening only for Power Play goals. The interesting fact here is that the portion of medium- to long-range goals goes up on the power play, as teams work the puck around for a clear shot from the point (also supported by the higher incidence of slapshot goals, at 32% vs. 24.5% overall). For the overall totals, about 12.6% of goals came from 40-60 feet, whereas on the power play, 17.5% of goals came from that range.
Look for most posts over the weekend, as we break down team-by-team performance in this area, including save percentage by distance and shot type...

Labels: offense, statistics

An early trip to the front office

Classic good news/bad news out Detroit this morning, where Greg Johnson has retired from the NHL.

Bad news, in that the Red Wings were hoping he would add depth as a 3rd or 4th line center, and that his career is ending while he still had a few years of productive play yet.

Good news, in that his heart ailment was diagnosed in training camp, before he had a collapse like Jiri Fischer did last season. Also good news in that the Wings are putting him to work in their player development department, rather than just cutting him loose.

Good luck, Greg.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Where are all the goals coming from?

Every parent thinks they are prepared for this question, but when your child brings it up for the first time, it never fails to catch you off your guard. Do I go for the old "stork" tale? Do I pull out diagrams, or use dolls? The mind shudders when you hear the words...

"Daddy, where do goals come from? "

Rest assured, dear readers, you now have your answer. To be precise, 58.4% came from within 20 feet last season, and only 6.76% came from beyond 50 feet. Drilled down on a team-by-team basis, we see standouts like the Atlanta Thrashers, who scored a league-low 48.4% of their goals from inside 20 feet, whereas the Phoenix Coyotes worked in close for a league-leading 69% of their tallies. If you look at the Buffalo Sabres, they scored less often than most within 20 feet (48.6%), but they scored a league-high 69 goals in the 21-30 foot range. Another interesting case is the Edmonton Oilers, who sniped almost 12% of their goals from beyond 50.

Take a look at the attached chart (click on it to enlarge), print it out, and chew over it for a bit with your friends during your next wine & cheese black-tie gala (err... beer & wings outing at the pub). For clarification purposes, this covers 99.8% of all goals scored last year (for some reason a couple games were left out of my data extracts), and I also excluded Empty Net goals from the figures. The percentages next to each value are the percent of each team's goals that came from that given distance.

Coming soon - similar data broken down by shot type, and then the real fun begins. We'll look at how the different goalies perform against these criteria...

EDIT NOTE: I noticed that there were a disproportionate number of 10 ft. goals in the extract, which I suspect has been used in cases when the goal came within 10 feet. So I've changed the columns to 1-10, 11-20, etc. to correct for this.

Labels: statistics

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Team by Team numbers for offensive zone faceoffs

As a followup to yesterday's article on offensive-zone faceoffs, here's a look at the team-by-team numbers.

Again, the criteria here is an offensive zone faceoff that results in a shot within 5 seconds of the puck drop.

Montreal Canadiens - 12.59%
Edmonton Oilers - 12.45%
Ottawa Senators - 11.85%
St. Louis Blues - 11.23%
Carolina Hurricanes - 10.77%
New York Islanders - 10.35%
Columbus Blue Jackets - 10.28%
Boston Bruins - 10.10%
Minnesota Wild - 9.96%
Toronto Maple Leafs - 9.96%
Colorado Avalanche - 9.93%
Florida Panthers - 9.88%
Calgary Flames - 9.62%
Los Angeles Kings - 9.49%
Washington Capitals - 9.48%
Detroit Red Wings - 9.31%
LEAGUE AVERAGE - 9.09%
Dallas Stars - 8.79%
New York Rangers - 8.71%
Vancouver Canucks - 8.57%
Buffalo Sabres - 8.27%
Philadelphia Flyers - 8.23%
Nashville Predators - 7.52%
Tampa Bay Lightning - 7.31%
Pittsburgh Penguins - 7.22%
New Jersey Devils - 7.18%
San Jose Sharks - 7.02%
Phoenix Coyotes - 6.89%
Anaheim Ducks - 6.77%
Atlanta Thrashers - 6.44%
Chicago Blackhawks - 6.40%

Labels: faceoffs, statistics

Monday, October 09, 2006

21st Century Hockey Analysis Begins

It's late in the game, you need a goal, and there's a key faceoff coming up in the offensive zone. You need to get a shot on net right away, but who are you going to send out to take the draw? Common wisdom would suggest running down the player statistics by Face Off Win Percentage, and sending your best player out there, assuming he's not winded from a recent shift.

Chances are, however, that the common wisdom is wrong.

I've recently gathered detailed game information from the entire 2005-2006 regular season, and analysed the results of over 45,000 non-neutral zone faceoffs that took place across more than 1,200 games. Based on when a faceoff in either end of the ice resulted in the offensive team getting a shot within 5 seconds of the drop of the puck, I've ranked the players as to how often offensive zone faceoffs result in immediate shots (given a minimum of 100 such draws). On average, a shot (defined as either a goal, save, blocked shot, or missed shot) took place within 5 seconds of the puck drop 9.09% of the time last season. So who fares better or worse than expected when looking at this particularly important slice of game performance? The answers might surprise you.

Take Yanic Perrault, for example, often lauded as one of the best faceoff men in the game. In 358 offensive-zone draws, only 19 shots resulted, for a paltry 5.38%. If you look at the league leaders in FOWin% from last season, Anaheim's Andy McDonald and Atlanta's Bobby Holik ranked 6th and 8th respectively. Pretty strong faceoff guys, right? When it comes to creating shots they rank near the bottom, however, producing at only 6.5%, well below the league average. Anaheim would do better using Todd Marchant (13.33%), and Atlanta using Steve Rucchin (10.45%).

On the plus side, look at Chris Kelly, from Ottawa. He ranks 80th out of 85 players in the NHL's official faceoff numbers, but he produced shots in the offensive end 12.81% of the time, 20th on this list and second-best on his team behind Antoine Vermette. The leader in this category was Montreal's Tomas Plekanec, who produced shots at a 17.78% clip. Montreal would be wise to invest in some heavy-shooting defensemen, as Steve Begin came in 3rd at 16.00%.

Peruse the list below, and add some helpful commentary the next time you're yelling at the hometown coach during your next NHL game. And stay tuned for more of this kind of detailed analysis coming in the weeks ahead. I'm excited about the data I've assembled and am looking for promising areas to research, so if you have a suggestion, feel free to leave a comment...

The Top Shot Producers (with last year's team):
Tomas PLEKANEC, MTL 17.78%
Antoine VERMETTE, OTT 17.42%
Steve BEGIN, MTL 16.00%
Marty REASONER, EDM 15.88%
Rod BRIND'AMOUR, CAR 15.44%
Jamaal MAYERS, STL 15.38%
Michael PECA, EDM 15.11%
Brett MCLEAN, COL 14.61%
Jarret STOLL, EDM 14.17%
Eric BELANGER, LA 14.16%
Travis GREEN, BOS 13.90%
Jan HRDINA, CBJ 13.87%
Clarke WILM, TOR 13.64%
Alexei ZHAMNOV, BOS 13.59%
Stephane YELLE, CGY 13.59%
Alyn MCCAULEY, SJ 13.50%
Todd MARCHANT, CBJ/ANA 13.33%
Petr CAJANEK, STL 12.91%
Jerred SMITHSON, NSH 12.87%
Chris KELLY, OTT 12.81%

The Rally Killers:
Mark BELL, CHI 3.30%
Marcel GOC, SJ 3.83%
Dave ANDREYCHUK, TB 3.96%
Keith TKACHUK, STL 4.20%
Serge PAYER, FLA 4.42%
Teemu SELANNE, ANA 4.64%
Rob NIEDERMAYER, ANA 4.91%
Vaclav PROSPAL, TB 5.07%
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Labels: faceoffs, statistics

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

"It's a great day for hockey"

The division winners have been forecast, the regular season awards have been foretold, so now the only remaining thread of credibility left to stretch beyond repair is to project your conference champions and the ultimate winner of the 2006-2007 Stanley Cup. And just for kicks, we'll toss in a few extra predictions on the side.

Prince of Wales Trophy: Buffalo and Ottawa are tempting, but I'll stick with the defending Eastern Conference champs, the Carolina Hurricanes.

Clarence Campbell Bowl: Coming out the Western Conference playoffs will be a feat itself, given the plethora of well-built teams. But assuming a healthy roster is available, I'm picking the Detroit Red Wings to make it through.

And in a hard-fought rematch of the 2002 Stanley Cup Finals, the Red Wings top the Hurricanes and win their first Cup of the post-Yzerman era.

In the meantime...

First Coach To Be Fired: Trent Yawney of the Chicago Blackhawks. Just look at the picture on his bio. It's a silent cry for help.

Most Improved Team: The St. Louis Blues in a landslide. The nightmare is over, although the long walk out of the darkness will take more than one season. They won't make the playoffs, but they'll be respectable once again.

Most Disappointing Team: The Tampa Bay Lightning will continue spiraling downwards into mediocrity from their 2004 Cup win.

Most Improved Player: Alex Tanguay, Calgary Flames. No pressure, kid - you're just supposed to take a pathetic offensive team and get them to the middle of the pack. 40 goals and 50 assists ought to do the trick.

Comeback Player: Sergei Fedorov, Columbus Blue Jackets. Injuries and an early trade limited his production last year, but a full season with Rick Nash and the addition of Anson Carter should help restore him to his typical point-per-game offensive pace that goes along with solid defensive play.

"Don't Come Back" Player: Why is Jeremy Roenick still playing? Has he got any bones left that he hasn't broken?

Enjoy Opening Night, folks...

NOTE: The title here is a famous quote from "Badger" Bob Johnson, the Hall of Fame hockey coach who passed away nearly 15 years ago shortly after leading the Pittsburgh Penguins to their first Stanley Cup. That quote was the byline for a hockey site I used to write for about 10 years ago called In the Crease, and I thought it particularly appropriate for the Opening Night of the 2006-2007 NHL Season.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

There's no crying in hockey!

General managers around the NHL are whining once again while one of their brethren outfoxes them. Everyone expected New Jersey Devils GM Lou Lamoriello to conduct a fire sale in order to get under the $44 million salary cap, but today he got clearance from the league to assign Alexander Mogilny (and his $3.5 million salary) to Long Term Injury status. In a nutshell, that means that while Mogilny is unable to play, the Devils can spend an additional amount over the normal cap, up to Mogilny's salary. Other GM's are up in arms over this, because it never occured to them that a player over 35 could land on the LTI list. Many assumed that if you had a geezer on a big contract, that you were stuck with him, as the new CBA says that even retired players can count against the cap. The Devils aren't gaming the system here - Mogilny has a degenerative hip condition and legitimately can't play.

In a related move, Lamoriello traded Vladimir Malakhov and a first-round pick to the San Jose Sharks for Igor Korolyuk and Jim Fahey. Malakhov isn't going to play this year either, but unlike Mogilny, he's not going on the LTI list. Instead, the Devils basically unloaded his $3.6 million salary on the Sharks, who have the cap room to absorb it. In exchange for doing so, they're getting that first-round pick. That's an idea that I had mused about in message boards over the summer, but the notion got ripped at the time. Lamoriello and Bobby Clarke have clearly outperformed their peers this offseason in Salary Capology, leaving their lessers to do nothing but complain. You have to love some of the juicy GM quotes from that TSN piece:

'This opens up a real can of worms for the league,'
'This is going to get ugly.'
'It doesn't break any rules, but it still has a smell to it. It stinks.'

Boo-freaking-hoo, boys, get your game on and get to work. The guys one the ice aren't the only ones competing for that Stanley Cup.

Terrible Ted Should Be Proud

Chris Chelios has always been a pest. For the first 20-odd years of his career that meant roughing up opposing forwards, yapping at referees, and driving fans nuts as he carved out a Hall of Fame career and won two Stanley Cups. These days, while still a valuable player on the ice, he's stirring things up in a big way with a new lawsuit filed against the NHL Players Association in a bid to have Executive Director Ted Saskin removed from his post. Boring stuff, right? Maybe so, but what Chelios (along with Dwayne Roloson and Trent Klatt) is pursuing is the end of the old days wherein the players unknowingly let themselves get fleeced by representatives who should have had the players' best interest at heart, but instead took advantage of them. Not that such a thing would ever happen these days, right? Like the NHLPA sitting on a $140 million warchest held over from the lockout, and resisting calls to distribute the funds back to current and retired players? Naaahhhh... couldn't be - these guys are pros!

Harken back, if you will, to those dark days of summer 2005, when the CBA had just been negotiated and Bob Goodenow resigned in disgrace. Within a matter of days, Saskin was appointed interim head of the NHLPA, in a number of steps that bypassed the NHLPA's own rules. His permanent appointment a short time later was rushed through, and now he's working under a 5-year, $10 million contract. The bottom line here is that a professional organization with more than a billion dollars in revenue (NHL player salaries) should put more effort into hiring an executive director than the NHLPA showed that summer. Letting Saskin take the reins on an interim basis was understandable at the time, but if they had any semblance of professionalism at all, the NHLPA would have engaged a consulting firm to conduct a proper search for a permanent executive director. Saskin could have certainly been a candidate, but if you're looking for someone to lead this large of an enterprise, you don't just hand the keys to the guy who sat next to Bob Goodenow. You look for the best possible person for the job.

Trevor Linden and the rest of the player leadership who coronated Saskin may be "tired of talking about it," but Chelios is right not to let the issue drop. Linden and the other players showed no more sophistication than their predecessors in the 1950's who failed to follow the likes of Ted Lindsay and stand up for themselves in their professional careers. The appointment of Ted Saskin is yet another chapter in the sad history of hockey players getting taken for a ride, and Chris Chelios is one the few voices trying to speak out against it.

Moved

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Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Pretty Grand Larceny

Give It Away, Give It Away, Give It Away Now...

Thursday, October 26, 2006

What Makes NHL Teams Win?

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Goodbye to Broad Street

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Help Wanted in Philly

Friday, October 20, 2006

Stopping Those Shots Off the Draw

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Wrist Shot Wonders

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

A look inside the NHL's Assists leaders

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Top NHL Slapshot Artists

Monday, October 16, 2006

Shooting Percentage presented in a brand new way

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Coyotes get ugly in Nashville

Thursday, October 12, 2006

A slapper, a snapper, or is it all in the wrist?

An early trip to the front office

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Where are all the goals coming from?

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Team by Team numbers for offensive zone faceoffs

Monday, October 09, 2006

21st Century Hockey Analysis Begins

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

"It's a great day for hockey"

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

There's no crying in hockey!

Terrible Ted Should Be Proud