OTF Classic

Wow, I knew the natives were restless in Atlanta, where the Thrashers are drifting aimlessly , but this is special. Courtesy of Southeast Shootout , we have here one season ticket holder's brilliant response to the renewal package he recieved in the mail: They've definitely got a mess on their hands down there, and I don't think anything short of firing the general manager and the coach will get things headed in a new direction. Fortunately for the Thrashers, they can do that in one swell foop . We may not have the perfect situation here in Nashville, but at least there's no doubt about the ownership's commitment to doing their best to make things work here. UPDATE : It looks like the season ticket holders are breaking out the torches and pithcforks tonight!

So last night the Atlanta Thrashers came to town, and I took the Littlest Forechecker (age 4) to his first hockey game. Since a good deal of my time was spent making sure he wasn't climbing all over the arena, I wasn't able to bring the usual razor-like focus to bear on the festivities, but I'll share my impressions nonetheless: Little Guy during pre-game warmups, before the M&M's kicked in The Good 1. Getting to meet up with the Falconer from Thrasher's Talons and Southeast Shootout . He made the drive up from Atlanta to watch the game, and we sat together during the 2nd period, talking stats, hockey blogging, and the prospects for our teams. I look forward to meeting up again when the Thrashers come back to Nashville during the season. 2. The top line of Fiddler/Arnott/Dumont looked tremendous. Given the lack of depth on the wing compared to last season, I like the idea of Barry Trotz spreading out the talent a bit (rather than putting someone like Radulov o...

As the playoff action really starts to heat up here in the second round, potential Conn Smythe Trophy winners for playoff MVP are already being bandied about. Before we get too carried away with what the weeks ahead might hold, however, let's pause for a moment and consider the candidates for the Anti-Conn Smythe Trophy - dedicated to those prominent players who suited up for the bright lights of playoff action and promptly disappeared from significance. For those top-dollar superstars who are already rounding into mid-summer golfing form, this award is for you. The nominees are... Alexei Yashin, New York Islanders Regular Season : 18 goals, 32 assists +6 Plus/Minus, Salary $7.6 million Playoffs : 5 games, 0 points, 7 shots with 11:45 TOI/game Early in the season, it appeared that Islanders coach Ted Nolan had lit a fire inside the perrenially underperforming Russian center, but by the end of the series with Buffalo, New York fans were treated to the same old story, with Yashin sh...

Just before the Conference Quarterfinal series began, I posted some predictions that were based on an application of the Shot Quality metric, basically matching each team's offense with the opposing defense, in terms of shots taken and shooting percentage from various distances. Now it's time to see how well that process worked, and in the days to follow, I'll tweak the process slightly based on the findings here, and post projections for the 2nd round series due to start later this week. So first let's review the Eastern Conference series one-by-one... Buffalo/NY Islanders : While the overall numbers came in lower than expected, the difference between the two teams' Expected Goals values (4.37 - 2.91 = 1.46) came in quite close to the Actual Goals (3.25 - 2.00 = 1.25), resulting in an easy victory for the Sabres. My qualitative hunch was that the Islanders' goaltending wouldn't keep up the pace set late in the season, but they actually did acquit them...

It's a new team with some old faces that will square off against the New York Rangers tonight as the Atlanta Thrashers make their playoff debut. So how will the blue hairs do against the blueshirts? Let's see what my angle on the numbers has to say: For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Thrashers can score : For Atlanta, it's all about execution. Their shooting percentage from close range is excellent, and the Rangers defense is giving up the opportunities, but the goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist has been saving their bacon. The Thrashers have a number of excellent finishers in Hossa, Kovalchuk, Kozlov and Tkachuk, however, and they will push Lundqvist's abilities to the limit. How the Rangers can score : Hockey commentators love to talk about digging hard for the "tough goals" in the playoffs, and for the Rangers, that does indeed seem to be their formula for success. They are generating the most shots from 29 feet in amongst...

The Southeast Division is home to the last two Stanley Cup champions (I know it's true, but it still seems wierd to write that), but this season we've seen a new power emerge in the Atlanta Thrashers. While Atlanta chases down their first division title and/or playoff berth, and Carolina has steadily lingered a few points back, the only real movement of late has seen the Tampa Bay Lightning pull ahead of the Washington Capitals for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The other model of consistency has been the Florida Panthers, slinking around the division basement due in part to a league-low five road victories. But underneath their positions in the standings, how have the overall offenses and defenses in the Southeast fared so far this year? Let's break them down team-by-team, focusing on the rolling 10-game averages for Actual (in red) and Expected Goals (in blue), both For and Against. As a guideline, NHL teams on the whole are averaging 2.97 goals...

Having recently examined the hot and cold individual shooters in the NHL, it's time to look at some team-wide performances, focusing on the leaders in the Atlantic and Southeast divisions. Early in the season, the Atlanta Thrashers were one of the feel-good stories of the NHL. Still searching for their first playoff appearance, they charged out of the gate and by early December, after their first 29 games, looked ready to run away with the Southeast division. The offense was averaging 3.48 goals per game, but a little over a month later, they've failed to maintain that momentum, playing .500 hockey since then and averaging only 2.38 goals per game. Fortunately for the Thrashers, the competition chasing them is flailing around the .500 mark as well, but does this offensive swoon mean that another regular season will end in disappointment? Perhaps not... The graph below shows the overall offensive trend for the Thrashers so far this year. The red dotted line shows (non-empty net...