OTF Classic

Last season Jerred Smithson became an every-night regular at the NHL level, playing 81 games for the Nashville Predators after 64 and 66 in the previous two campaigns. His even-strength work on a line with Radek Bonk and Jed Ortmeyer was pretty awful; I've said before that this may have been the worst line in the NHL last year. Where Smithson provides some additional value to Barry Trotz is his penalty killing work and relative success winning faceoffs. As competition increases for 3rd- and 4th-line ice time in Nashville, those are two qualities that might benefit him. For the upcoming season, I would expect his 5-on-5 duty to be reduced somewhat, with a heavier emphasis on the PK and more of a specialized role as a lead-preservation guy. So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast... Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season Player GP G A Pts Shots Sht % Jerred Smithson 70 3 5 8 35 9

One of the questions that Nashville Predators fans worried over earlier this summer was whether the team would be able to retain both Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, the two high-profile restricted free agents due for major pay increases. Now that he's locked up for four more seasons at $3.5 million per, the focus shifts to how much of a step forward Suter will take as he shakes off the young rookie label and fills a key role on the Predators blue line. Suter enters his 4th NHL season as a potent offensive threat Photo courtesy of Paul Nicholson Over the course of three seasons, Suter has steadily progressed into a solid two-way performer, and a key cog on the power play. He became much more aggressive offensively last season, firing 138 shots (compared to 87 the year before), presumably due to an increased opportunity working the point with the man advantage: Ryan Suter Even Strength & Power Play Performance TOI = Time On Ice, Pts/60 = Points per 60 Mi...

Hockey training camps open later this month, so naturally the hockey poolies are starting to come out again, scooping up fantasy hockey guides at the bookstores and snooping their way around the internet to get the latest information on player transactions, depth charts, and projections for the upcoming NHL season. Last year I had the honor of participating in James Mirtle's Bloggers Invitational, and did quite well in the regular season before pulling up lame in the playoffs. I'm bound and determined to finish the deal this season, and along the way I thought I'd share some of the tools and techniques that have helped me over the years. The nice thing about these methods is that they apply to pretty much any fantasy sport, as they've served me successfully over the course of 15+ seasons of fantasy football as well. The basic concept that I utilize is to have the most effective draft possible; we all know that Draft Day is by far the biggest single event of a fant...

One of the interesting storylines to follow during training camp later this month will be the progress of Antti Pihlstrom, the Finnish agitator who has an outside shot at landing a roster spot with the Predators. After leading the AHL's Milwaukee Admirals in goal scoring (with 27 in 78 games), is Pihlstrom ready for the big stage in Music City? Pihlstrom is likely to make his biggest impact as a 3rd- or 4th-line banger, with enough scoring touch to provide an occasional boost to the Nashville attack. At 23 years old, we've probably got a decent picture of how he'll fare at the NHL level. Similar to the preview for Patric Hornqvist , let's use Gabriel Desjardin's League Equivalencies work to make a basic projection. In this case, we have a guy who posted 27 goals and 18 assists in 78 games for Milwaukee, a Points Per Game rate of 0.58. Desjardin's Equivalency value for a 23 year-old transitioning from the AHL to the NHL is 0.41, so multiplying it by Pihl...

Today's projection should be an easy one. Coming into training camp Pekka Rinne has 3 career games of NHL service, so normally one might wonder if there's much history to leverage in terms of predicting future performance. But with the Predators, we have a very clear guideline to follow. Each of the last two seasons have seen Nashville's backup goaltender steal the spotlight with a performance among the very best in the NHL. After all, Chris Mason's 2006-7 season was, by some measures , tops in the league that year, and Dan Ellis led all goaltenders in both regular season and playoff save percentage in 2007-8. What then, to expect of young Mr. Rinne, who, after salutary duty in Milwaukee the last three years (including an AHL All-Star appearance last season), has been anointed the #2 man in the Predators goal? First, expect a very different profile in net; Rinne stands 6'5", a fair bit taller than Ellis (6'0") or previous #1 Chris Mason (also 6...

Happy 30th Birthday wishes go out to Jed Ortmeyer , and in his honor, today's Forechecker's Forecast is devoted to the one-time University of Michigan Wolverine. Jed signed a two-year deal with Nashville last summer, and the expectation has been that he'd provide basic checking and penalty killing work. He began the 2007-8 season playing the left wing alongside Radek Bonk in the middle and Jerred Smithson on the right side, on what was supposed to be a shutdown line. As it worked out, however, the only thing that got shut down was the Predators offense when those three hit the ice. Nashville Predators 5-on-5 Advanced Statistics, 2007-8 Regular Season NAME POS GP TOI/ 60 RATING QUAL COMP QUAL TEAM PTS/ 60 GFON/ 60 GAON/ 60 +-ON/60 GFOFF/ 60 GAOFF/ 60 +-OFF/ 60 JASON ARNOTT C 79 13.78 1.90 0.05 0.24 2.65 3.86 2.42 1.43 2.13 2.60 -0.47 ALEXANDER RADULOV RW 81 12.94 0.89 0.01 0.22 2.86 3.61 2.80 0.80 2.23 2.32 -0.09 JEAN-PIERRE DUMONT RW 80 13.81 0.74 0.03 0.45 2.88 3.53 2.93 0...

Amidst the Radulov drama and the Marek Zidlicky trade , one roster move that's been somewhat overlooked involves the enforcer role, fulfilled the last three seasons in Nashville by fan favorite Darcy Hordichuk . The heir apparent to that job is Josh Gratton, a dedicated knuckle-duster who played all of 1 NHL game last year, and 52 the year before for Phoenix. I'm guessing that this is a fan-created site and nothing that Gratton himself has created (although "Chin of Steel" is certainly a moniker worth promoting). Coming soon to a fist near you... Other than finishing 2nd in the league with 188 penalty minutes in the 2006-7 season, Gratton's NHL-level resume is pretty thin. Basically, there's not much there to suggest that Gratton will bring anything to the Predators' on-ice performance that any other goon (err... enforcer) would. As James Mirtle so ably pointed out earlier this summer, guys like that don't play a lot, and don't do much to hel...

This series of Forechecker's Forecasts heads into truly uncharted waters today as we consider the prospects for Patric Hornqvist, the Swedish winger who appears to be the organization's next-best option for goal-scoring depth after the departure of Alexander Radulov. Since he's labored over in the Swedish Elite League for the last few years, North American fans have precious little evidence to evaluate; the single most-noteworthy fact known about him is that he tied Peter Forsberg's record for goal-scoring by a junior player (with 23) for Djurgarden in 2006-7. He has also represented Sweden well during the World Championships both in 2007 and 2008, and his 6 goals this year led the team. Nashville fans are hoping for plenty of this... The big unknown, here, however, is how does Hornqvist's production in the SEL translate into what we can expect of him in the NHL? Besides the obvious difference in talent level and the international-size ice surface, there's al...

When the Buffalo Sabres walked away from an arbitration award in the summer of 2006, making J.P. Dumont an unrestricted free agent, many approved of David Poile's subsequent signing of him as a savvy addition that would bring secondary scoring behind the likes of Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan, who then led a deep Nashville attack. Two years on, Dumont is now wearing the "A", leading the charge up front along with Jason Arnott, and entering the first year of a new four-season contract paying him $4 million annually. Each of his two seasons with the Predators have seen progress in offensive production, so the main question with #71 is, has he reached his peak? J.P. Dumont, 5 Year Overview Season Age Team GP G A Pts Pts/Gm +/- Shots TOI/Gm 2003 24 BUF 76 14 21 35 0.46 -14 135 15:04 2004 25 BUF 77 22 31 53 0.69 -9 156 17:00 2006 27 BUF 54 20 20 40 0.74 -1 116 16:00 2007 28 NSH 82 21 45 66 0.80 14 143 16:12 2008 29 NSH 80 29 43 72 0.90 5 192 18:30 data from Hockey-Reference...

Have we ever seen a more fortuitously named athlete for his adopted city than Vern Fiddler of the Nashville Predators? Perhaps Terry Crisp when he coached in Calgary (Flames, Crispy, you get it), but not too many others come to mind. Sorry, I just couldn't resist... In 2007-8, Fiddler enjoyed another season of unheralded contributions as Barry Trotz's utility man; he played everywhere from the top line alongside Jason Arnott down to 4th-line checking duty, with his characteristic hustle bringing him a career-high 79 games played. Especially in a salary-cap era, Fiddler is the type of guy who provides quality depth and reliability. One metric that Lowetide likes to cite often is Even Strength Points per 60 minutes. Check out Fiddler's 2007-8 performance compared to his teammates: Even Strength TOI and Pts per 60 Minutes, 2007-8 NAME POS GP TOI/60 PTS/60 JEAN-PIERRE DUMONT RW 80 13.81 2.88 ALEXANDER RADULOV RW 81 12.94 2.86 JASON ARNOTT C 79 13.78 2.65 MARTIN ERAT RW 76 13...

After previewing some grizzled veterans in the first two installments of these Forechecker's Forecasts, it's time take a look at a hockey player with only a handful of NHL games on his resume, Kevin Klein. After years of preparation as a hot defensive prospect, Klein is set to join the Nashville lineup full-time this fall, based on his new two-year contract that will pay him an average of $650,000 per season. Is Klein ready to shine? Photo courtesy of mark6mauno Last year must have been frustrating for Klein, as he failed to make the big team coming out of training camp, and his early work in Milwaukee drew sharp criticism from Barry Trotz. Later on there was some experimentation with having him play wing in practice, in order to back up some banged-up Predators forwards, but that never panned out and Klein ended up dressing for only 13 games for Nashville, as Ville Koistinen jumped ahead of him on the depth chart. The time is definitely now for the 23 year-old, who, while...

For early birds, the time is coming to start preparing for Fantasy Hockey season, and studying the various guides that hit the magazine shelves and websites during August and September. Prompted by the post yesterday at Waiting for Stanley which examined the Hockey News' Fantasy Pool Guide from a Canucks perspective, I thought I'd try doing the same vis-a-vis the Nashville Predators. The bottom line? If you plan on only buying one Fantasy Hockey Guide for the upcoming season, don't go with the one from the Hockey News. Now don't get me wrong; it's a well-crafted, very slick publication, but by getting on the newstands nearly a month before hockey training camps open, it's not up to date on the summer happenings which are having a major effect on various players and teams. There are also some strange omissions which I can't explain. For instance, Alexander Radulov still shows up on the Nashville roster as a main producer, but Jordin Tootoo (who received...

Today's installment of the Forechecker's Forecast brings us to Radek Bonk , the veteran center who was acquired last summer to be " a big, experienced center that can play the shut-down defensive role and also fill in in more offensive situations," as GM David Poile said at the time. Since Bonk did a solid job in that role with the Montreal Canadiens for the first two years following the Great Lockout, there was reason for optimism that 1994's #3 overall draft pick would be the perfect fit to round out a center position that already boasted Jason Arnott, David Legwand, and Scott Nichol. Bonk began the season anchoring a line with Jed Ortmeyer on the left side and Jerred Smithson on the right, but the ice seemed to tilt uphill for them, and that line's impact on the team's Plus/Minus in 5-on-5 action was nothing short of disastrous . The "Rating" value from Behind the Net describes the difference between a team's Goals For and Against number...

In order to tide us all over until hockey training camp opens next month, I thought I'd take a cue from Lowetide and some others by taking an early peek ahead to the 2008-9 season for individual members of the Nashville Predators. Hey, it's the middle of August, and there's nothing else to write about, right? So what I've done is taken the current roster (minus the AWOL Radulov), added in a few others who are expected to make some contribution this year (Rich Peverley, Patric Hornqvist, Ryan Jones, Antti Pihlstrom) and tossed them into a virtual hat (OK, I used the Random function in Excel). This top-secret, classified ordering will dictate the sequence in which these previews will appear... So first up on the hit parade? None other than your captain, #19, Jason Arnott ... Photo Courtesy of Paul Nicholson In 2007-8 Arnott stepped into the role of team captain amidst a summer of franchise turmoil that has been documented ad nauseum. In the end, he delivered one of the...

Yes, I've heard all that nonsense about how the Presidents Trophy is somehow cursed , and that winning the regular season is a sure-fire ticket to postseason collapse. Well, I certainly hope that doesn't hold true for Fantasy Hockey. Remember, James, send this to Nashville, not Hamilton! Not to toot my own horn here ( ah, who am I kidding? That's exactly what I'm doing! ), but the Fab Forecheckers have just concluded a very successful regular season in James Mirtle's Blogger Invitational Fantasy Hockey League over on Yahoo Sports. Follow some of the links below to find a who's-who of the NHL blogging world: Mirtle's Blogger Invitational Final Regular Season Standings Rank Team W-L-T Pct Pts Moves *1. The Fab Forecheckers 188-86-25 0.671 401 9 *2. The blogless wonders 154-114-31 0.567 339 10 *3. The Alcoholic Army 149-110-40 0.565 338 17 *4. Mirtle's Merry Men 153-118-28 0.559 334 35 *5. Matt of the Battle 149-114-36 0.559 334 5 *6. Spector's Spudhe...

Welcome to those of you coming over from Mirtle's blog , where he's posted the standings from this year's Blogger Invitational Hockey Pool. Yes, I've been fortunate enough to have a very successful season there so far, so I thought I'd point you to a piece I wrote last fall that pretty much laid out my Fantasy Hockey draft strategy . Basically, it's not about out-predicting your competitors as to who's going to have a great season, but rather doing a better job obtaining value with each particular draft pick. I've also been lucky not to have been stricken too badly by the injury bug, although Richard Zednik is certainly out for the year, and had been doing well for me. All in all, it's been a fun run so far, with only one week out of 20 in which I've been outscored by my opponent. You can expect a fully fleshed out, pay-per-view Fantasy Hockey guide next fall if somehow I manage to close the deal here...

Sure, now that the All-Star Weekend is behind us, there are plenty of features out today looking at how various NHL teams will fare the rest of the regular season. But instead, let's take a look at something really important: Fantasy Hockey Standings. There's still a lot of work to be done, as the playoffs don't begin until March 10, but I have to give some credit this morning to the 2007-8 Fab Forecheckers (current roster): Centers: Jason Arnott, Olli Jokinen, Vaclav Prospal, Bryan Smolinski Left Wings: Jason Blake, Richard Zednick, Cory Stillman, Vern Fiddler Right Wings: Markus Naslund, Dustin Penner, Fernando Pisani, Joordin Tootoo Defence: Marek Zidlicky, Zdeno Chara, Sergei Gonchar, Fedor Tyutin, Ville Koistinen, Mattias Ohlund Goaltenders: Tomas Vokoun, Rick DiPietro, Jose Theodore

So I checked the Fantasy Hockey standings in Mirtle's Blogger Invitational this morning, and it appears the romance is over... Recent Transactions Player Type From To By Samuel Pahlsson (Anh - C) Drop Earl Strikes Back Waivers Earl Sleek That's all I've got for today. I'm up in Indiana for the weekend, and it sounds like I'll miss a doozy tonight in Nashville. The Wild are coming to town, and they've picked up another goon off the waiver wire to cruise alongside Derek Boogaard. Will Barry Trotz counter by dressing Darcy Hordichuk? Personally, I'd rather see them not, and focus on winning the game, but you certainly don't want to see someone come in and rough up your talent.

Nashville Predators fans have much to be thankful for this Thanksgiving Day; A team on the ice that has rebounded convincingly from early season woes to go 8-2-2 over their last 12 games; A group of local investors who worked out a deal with city government and stand ready to take over the franchise in just a few weeks; An outgoing owner in Craig Leipold who patiently waited for the locals to get their deal, rather than taking the quick money that would have sent this team packing; A coach in Barry Trotz who, even after all these years, has this team playing hard every night; A GM who, despite having to slash payroll, made sure that the players brought in were able to fill specific roles; Players like Radek Bonk, David Legwand, and Alexander Radulov, who, among others, are providing offense through a genuine team effort. This team doesn't rely on a single star; A defense corps that has buckled down in the face of injury; A fan base that is rallying behind their team and their city...

This year I was fortunate enough to receive an invitation to James Mirtle's fantasy hockey league, with the opportunity to knock heads with James, Spector , David Johnson from HockeyAnalysis.com , Earl Sleek from Battle of California , and many more from around the online hockey world. In all, twenty managers drafted twenty players, making this a deep dive into the ranks of the NHL. Today I thought I'd not only introduce you to the 2007-8 Fab Forecheckers, but share my thoughts on Fantasy Hockey drafting strategy. First of all, my lineup. The starting positions on each team are C (3), LW (2), RW (2), F (2), D (4), G (2), and Utility, and the scoring categories are G, A, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPA, GWG, SOG, W, GAA, SV, SV%, and SHO. Thus, while goalies only take two spots on the active roster (12.5%), they determine five of the thirteen categories (38.5%), making them extremely important. The Fab Forecheckers Round Pick Player Position...