Skip to main content

Endorsements

Got any good books to recommend?

Greatest Hits from Working the Net:

Harlow Salon - one of the very best hair salons in Nashville TN.

Jed Ortmeyer, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

Happy 30th Birthday wishes go out to Jed Ortmeyer, and in his honor, today's Forechecker's Forecast is devoted to the one-time University of Michigan Wolverine.

Jed signed a two-year deal with Nashville last summer, and the expectation has been that he'd provide basic checking and penalty killing work. He began the 2007-8 season playing the left wing alongside Radek Bonk in the middle and Jerred Smithson on the right side, on what was supposed to be a shutdown line. As it worked out, however, the only thing that got shut down was the Predators offense when those three hit the ice.

Nashville Predators 5-on-5 Advanced Statistics, 2007-8 Regular Season
NAMEPOSGPTOI/ 60RATINGQUAL COMPQUAL TEAMPTS/ 60GFON/ 60GAON/ 60+-ON/60GFOFF/ 60GAOFF/ 60+-OFF/ 60
JASON ARNOTTC7913.781.900.050.242.653.862.421.432.132.60-0.47
ALEXANDER RADULOVRW8112.940.890.010.222.863.612.800.802.232.32-0.09
JEAN-PIERRE DUMONTRW8013.810.740.030.452.883.532.930.602.202.35-0.15
SCOTT NICHOLC7310.390.59-0.05-0.211.192.691.980.712.662.540.12
BRANDON BOCHENSKIRW4010.250.42-0.06-0.021.462.051.170.882.512.050.46
DAVID LEGWANDC6512.070.410.01-0.032.293.062.680.382.672.70-0.03
MARTIN GELINASLW5711.640.360.02-0.141.722.442.080.362.702.700.00
JAN HLAVACLW8013.240.270.070.021.812.442.66-0.232.482.98-0.50
MARTIN ERATRW7613.440.230.070.132.412.882.640.232.472.470.00
DARCY HORDICHUKLW455.14-0.13-0.19-0.490.781.301.56-0.262.612.75-0.13
VERNON FIDDLERC7910.67-0.67-0.00-0.041.852.352.71-0.362.712.400.31
JORDIN TOOTOORW639.72-0.88-0.07-0.001.762.253.14-0.882.612.610.00
JED ORTMEYERRW519.96-1.520.01-0.620.711.302.48-1.183.172.830.34
JERRED SMITHSONC819.22-1.68-0.02-0.440.801.042.25-1.203.062.580.48
RADEK BONKC7912.26-2.240.05-0.220.931.433.04-1.612.972.340.63


This table, courtesy of Behind the Net, requires a bit of explanation. It isolates the Goals For and Goals Against performance for the Nashville forwards last season, in terms of Goals For and Against per 60 minutes of play while that player is on the ice, and also how the rest of the team performs when that player is on the bench, thus revealing the impact an individual has on the overall result.

The single column that points this out is Rating, which reflects, per 60 minutes of play, the shift in a team's GF/GA differential when a given player is on the ice. Jed's -1.52 showing there is pretty awful; as to whether or not he faced elite offensive opponents, and that had an effect on his results, the Qualcomp shows the quality of opposition he faced. At 0.01, he basically went against middle-of-the-road competition, so that's not an excuse. How about the performance of his linemates? Did that bring him down? An argument can possibly be made there, as Smithson and Bonk are the only two guys with worse 5-on-5 Ratings, and Jed's Qualteam (quality of teammates played with) mark of -0.62 is worst on the squad; that line just made for a horrible combination.

Offensively, when Ortmeyer/Bonk/Smithson went out there, the Goals For/60 Minutes for Nashville plumetted down to the 1.04-1.43 range, down from typical values of 2.5-3.5. Defensively, the Goals Against numbers didn't vary much from what the rest of the team did. In a nutshell they failed to shut down opponents, while contributing minimal offensive pressure at the same time. That's a losing combination, and I doubt we'll see this line brought back together this fall.

Jed's ice time may well be threatened by the prospect of rookies like Ryan Jones and Antti Pihlstrom cracking the Nashville lineup; Patric Hornqvist appears destined for Top Six duty, so that's not a direct threat to Ortmeyer. As to penalty killing, Smithson and Scott Nichol have dibs on the major duty there, along with David Legwand and Vern Fiddler. My guess is that Jed's going to be watching from the press box quite a bit this season, filling in as injuries strike one of the PK guys or when Barry Trotz is feeling too stressed out by rookie defensive gaffes.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
PlayerGPGAPtsShotsSht %
Jed Ortmeyer404610607

Popular posts from this blog

How I'm Trying To Make Money Sports Blogging

To kick off this series of articles general sports-blogging articles here at OTF Classic, I think it's best to start with a comment that Brad left here last week, after I shared my goals for 2012, which include specific revenue targets:
I considered diving into the world of internet marketing myself, but I felt that my friends would hate me for bugging them about stuff. I mean, it's pretty low-risk high-reward, so it's tempting. I wouldn't mind reading about tips on how to maximize impact of blogging in general to make it a legitimate income source. Trying to make money at sports blogging can be a very touchy subject - for the vast majority of us, this is an activity we pursue to both exercise our creativity and share our love of the game, whether it's hockey, football, badminton, whatever, with fellow fans. Mixing that personal conversation with a commercial message can turn people off, especially if it becomes too intrusive for the reader.

It's not unreasonabl…

Canadian Baloney, starring James Mirtle

A tireless refrain from the Canadian media is that Nashville is an absolute failure as a hockey market, and failing to move the team north of the border is an exercise in folly by the NHL.

Our latest exhibit comes from James Mirtle, usually one of the more thoughtful hockey bloggers extant:
But Nashville, quite simply, has proven it cannot sustain an NHL hockey team. Even with the lowest ticket prices in the entire league (I know: I've looked into flying there for a game or two) and a ridiculously forgiving arena lease, the team has had attendance issues despite having one of the best records in the league.

It's not a matter of Canadians not wanting teams in the southern U.S.; I've argued time and again in favour of teams like Dallas and Tampa Bay that have supported their teams and really brought something to the table in terms of bringing news fans and new energy to the game. That's a good thing.

The Predators, however, are not that, not in the beginning and certainly no…

Hooray for PythagenPuck

Back in November, around the quarter-mark of the NHL regular season, I wrote a piece looking at Expected Winning Percentages for each team, based on their Goals For/Goals Against ratio, using the PythagenPuck method as outlined in Alan Ryder's "Win Probabilities" article over at Hockey Analytics. Since we're approaching the end of the campaign, I thought it worth revisiting the two assertions I made back in November - that the Ottawa Senators were capable of getting back into the playoff race, and that the Boston Bruins were in danger of a freefall to the bottom of the standings.

Just to review, the basic idea behind win probability models like PythagenPuck is that over the course of a season, the Goals For and Goals Against numbers can be used to derive a team's winning percentage, within a a surprisingly narrow margin of error. For instance, if you only had GF/GA information, you could make a very good stab at projecting what the standings would look like. The w…