Skip to main content

Jed Ortmeyer, the 2008-9 Forechecker's Forecast

Happy 30th Birthday wishes go out to Jed Ortmeyer, and in his honor, today's Forechecker's Forecast is devoted to the one-time University of Michigan Wolverine.

Jed signed a two-year deal with Nashville last summer, and the expectation has been that he'd provide basic checking and penalty killing work. He began the 2007-8 season playing the left wing alongside Radek Bonk in the middle and Jerred Smithson on the right side, on what was supposed to be a shutdown line. As it worked out, however, the only thing that got shut down was the Predators offense when those three hit the ice.

Nashville Predators 5-on-5 Advanced Statistics, 2007-8 Regular Season
NAMEPOSGPTOI/ 60RATINGQUAL COMPQUAL TEAMPTS/ 60GFON/ 60GAON/ 60+-ON/60GFOFF/ 60GAOFF/ 60+-OFF/ 60
JASON ARNOTTC7913.781.900.050.242.653.862.421.432.132.60-0.47
ALEXANDER RADULOVRW8112.940.890.010.222.863.612.800.802.232.32-0.09
JEAN-PIERRE DUMONTRW8013.810.740.030.452.883.532.930.602.202.35-0.15
SCOTT NICHOLC7310.390.59-0.05-0.211.192.691.980.712.662.540.12
BRANDON BOCHENSKIRW4010.250.42-0.06-0.021.462.051.170.882.512.050.46
DAVID LEGWANDC6512.070.410.01-0.032.293.062.680.382.672.70-0.03
MARTIN GELINASLW5711.640.360.02-0.141.722.442.080.362.702.700.00
JAN HLAVACLW8013.240.270.070.021.812.442.66-0.232.482.98-0.50
MARTIN ERATRW7613.440.230.070.132.412.882.640.232.472.470.00
DARCY HORDICHUKLW455.14-0.13-0.19-0.490.781.301.56-0.262.612.75-0.13
VERNON FIDDLERC7910.67-0.67-0.00-0.041.852.352.71-0.362.712.400.31
JORDIN TOOTOORW639.72-0.88-0.07-0.001.762.253.14-0.882.612.610.00
JED ORTMEYERRW519.96-1.520.01-0.620.711.302.48-1.183.172.830.34
JERRED SMITHSONC819.22-1.68-0.02-0.440.801.042.25-1.203.062.580.48
RADEK BONKC7912.26-2.240.05-0.220.931.433.04-1.612.972.340.63


This table, courtesy of Behind the Net, requires a bit of explanation. It isolates the Goals For and Goals Against performance for the Nashville forwards last season, in terms of Goals For and Against per 60 minutes of play while that player is on the ice, and also how the rest of the team performs when that player is on the bench, thus revealing the impact an individual has on the overall result.

The single column that points this out is Rating, which reflects, per 60 minutes of play, the shift in a team's GF/GA differential when a given player is on the ice. Jed's -1.52 showing there is pretty awful; as to whether or not he faced elite offensive opponents, and that had an effect on his results, the Qualcomp shows the quality of opposition he faced. At 0.01, he basically went against middle-of-the-road competition, so that's not an excuse. How about the performance of his linemates? Did that bring him down? An argument can possibly be made there, as Smithson and Bonk are the only two guys with worse 5-on-5 Ratings, and Jed's Qualteam (quality of teammates played with) mark of -0.62 is worst on the squad; that line just made for a horrible combination.

Offensively, when Ortmeyer/Bonk/Smithson went out there, the Goals For/60 Minutes for Nashville plumetted down to the 1.04-1.43 range, down from typical values of 2.5-3.5. Defensively, the Goals Against numbers didn't vary much from what the rest of the team did. In a nutshell they failed to shut down opponents, while contributing minimal offensive pressure at the same time. That's a losing combination, and I doubt we'll see this line brought back together this fall.

Jed's ice time may well be threatened by the prospect of rookies like Ryan Jones and Antti Pihlstrom cracking the Nashville lineup; Patric Hornqvist appears destined for Top Six duty, so that's not a direct threat to Ortmeyer. As to penalty killing, Smithson and Scott Nichol have dibs on the major duty there, along with David Legwand and Vern Fiddler. My guess is that Jed's going to be watching from the press box quite a bit this season, filling in as injuries strike one of the PK guys or when Barry Trotz is feeling too stressed out by rookie defensive gaffes.

So, for the official Forechecker's Forecast...

Forechecker's Forecast, 2008-9 NHL Regular Season
PlayerGPGAPtsShotsSht %
Jed Ortmeyer404610607

Popular posts from this blog

Social Media, Internet Marketing, and Real, Paying Customers - it really works!

Applying the basic tenets of internet marketing (SEO best practices and social media network building) have helped me grow the readership and engagement over at On The Forecheck tremendously in recent years, but lately I've been wondering if those same techniques could be applied to small- or medium-sized local businesses, to help them drive real, tangible business results. I'm talking about not just drawing idle hockey fans looking to a blog so they can muse over line combinations, but helping businesses connect with potential customers in ways that otherwise wouldn't occur. Recently, I was able to help make just such a thing happen, and it shows just how great the opportunities are for small, local businesses which may not have the resources or skills available to extend their brand effectively on the internet.

Celebrating a milestone month

I've been remiss in providing regular updates on my quest to turn this whole sports-blogging hobby into at least something of a significant side income, if not a career, but good news has a way of prompting action. That, and I've been heads-down busy working on a few different fronts to push things forward...

My goals for 2011: Make sports blogging pay off

In my never-ending quest to figure out a model for making what is currently my hobby & passion into something bringing in at least a side income, I've decided to set a couple goals for myself to complete during the rest of 2011. Simply put, I plan to publish two products over the next few months, which I hope will provide real value to hockey fans, and that they'll be willing to pay for. Will it succeed? Will it fail? The only way to know is to put my nose to the grindstone and get these two things done (I'll keep the details under my hat for now). The important thing to note is that these efforts are in addition to anything I'm doing over at OTF . Taking away what we're doing over there and asking people to pay for it is a surefire lose-lose all the way around, because if there's anything we've learned over the last few years, it's that people love to read about sports, but only for free. I'm also optimistic about Hockey Gea...