OTF Classic

After each playoff round I've provided summaries for how well the predictive tool I'm using is performing, but in order to get my Stanley Cup prediction out here in time for the puck to drop in Game One, I'm going to save my conference final summary for later. Suffice it to say I had picked Buffalo in what was basically a pick 'em type of series (one that the Senators surprisingly dominated), and the Red Wings to skate past the Ducks in seven, so obviously both of those went awry. Overall in these playoffs I'm 9-5 in picking series winners (or as Earl Sleek enjoys pointing out, 9-2 when the Ducks aren't involved). While the mainstream US media is basically ignoring this championship series, any hockey fan should be looking forward to it - we have two very strong squads that were among the dominant teams in their conference throughout the season. The Ducks got off to a roaring start before a bizarre injury stretch brought them back to the pack, and the Senators ...

Looking at these Eastern Conference Finals as an interested outsider, I'm left wondering if we're seeing the genesis of the greatest NHL rivalry since the Red Wings/Avalanche glory days of the 1990's. The recipe breaks down as follows: 1. You've got a playoff rematch, featuring teams with loads of young talent and great expectations. 2. There's bad blood aplenty, after the Chris Neil hit on Chris Drury, and the subsequent brawl. 3. Each team has a veteran coach who's not shy about using their public forum to badger the other team. 4. Rabid hockey fans in each city who want the Stanley Cup, but for the next two weeks only want to see their team defeat their hated rival. 5. The games themselves are a joy to watch, with plenty of up-and-down action, hitting, individual skill and tremendous goaltending. If only the NHL could get this on as many TV sets as possible - this series looks to be a classic. Techorati Tags: buffalo sabres , ottawa senators

The Buffalo vs. Ottawa pairing for the Eastern Conference Finals should result in a spectacular display of "new NHL" hockey, pitting two talented, offensively-oriented teams in a battle for the Prince of Wales Trophy . My predictive method of matching offense against defense and focusing on recent performance has proven pretty useful so far - so what does it say about this series? How the Sabres can score : Buffalo appears to be all about the execution - their shooting percentage from the prime scoring ranges (10-19 and 20-29 feet) is the best among the four remaining teams, and that ability to hit your spot under pressure (recall Chris Drury's 0:07 game-tying goal against the Rangers) will be critical to the Sabre's success in this series. They'll need that composure to beat Ray Emery in goal, who has been outstanding for Ottawa so far in the playoffs. How the Senators can score : Ottawa can be expected to pop off about four more shots per game than Buffalo, but...

Now that Buffalo and Ottawa have made it to the Eastern Conference Finals, I wanted to check in how my predictive modeling performed compared to actual results. Obviously, it wasn't too far off the mark, as I did pick both the Sabres and Senators to make it through. Just to recap, the basic idea behind this model is that I try to map out each team's offense against the opposing defense, projecting shots/game from various distances, shooting percentages, and thereby goals per game. The two key concepts are, first, an interaction between one team's offense and the other's defense (both in terms of shots allowed and goaltending), and secondly, trying to reflect recent performance by the use of exponential moving averages to represent the per-game values*. Bufallo/New York : I was hardly alone in picking the Sabres here, as they were the top team in the regular season, although the Rangers did put up a good fight, and if they had successfully handled the final minute of Gam...

We have a classic clash of styles in the New Jersey/Ottawa Eastern Conference Semifinal, between the defense-first Devils and the dynamic Senators. In my humble opinion these matchups make for some of the more entertaining series, but let's see what the numbers tell us about how this will shake out. For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Devils can score : There's not much outstanding when it comes to the New Jersey offense - they take an average amount of shots, with a pretty typical distribution in terms of short vs. long range, and the execution in terms of scoring percentages is right around average as well. The Ottawa defense isn't likely to shut them down, but the goaltending has been fairly strong as of late posing a challenge to a Devils offense that doesn't want to get stuck playing from behind. How the Senators can score : The Senators will be expected to outshoot the Devils by 2-3 shots per game, which may not sound like much...

Just before the Conference Quarterfinal series began, I posted some predictions that were based on an application of the Shot Quality metric, basically matching each team's offense with the opposing defense, in terms of shots taken and shooting percentage from various distances. Now it's time to see how well that process worked, and in the days to follow, I'll tweak the process slightly based on the findings here, and post projections for the 2nd round series due to start later this week. So first let's review the Eastern Conference series one-by-one... Buffalo/NY Islanders : While the overall numbers came in lower than expected, the difference between the two teams' Expected Goals values (4.37 - 2.91 = 1.46) came in quite close to the Actual Goals (3.25 - 2.00 = 1.25), resulting in an easy victory for the Sabres. My qualitative hunch was that the Islanders' goaltending wouldn't keep up the pace set late in the season, but they actually did acquit them...

Perhaps the most anticipated series in the first round pits the perennial regular season powerhouse Ottawa Senators against the sensational Pittsburgh Penguins, the team that nearly moved out of town, only to wind up in the playoffs instead. The media focus on Sidney Crosby's first postseason will be intense, which perhaps takes some of the pressure off the Senators to finally make good on the promises they've made for the last several years. They've got plenty of star power on both sides, but how will the numbers shake out? For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How Ottawa can score : Shots, shots, and more shots seems to be the story here, as Ottawa takes a lot of shots, and the Pens give up a bunch as well, a dangerous combination. Much like the San Jose Sharks , expect the Sens to generate most of their goals from the 10-29 foot range. Although Marc-Andre Fleury's goaltending has been excellent leading into the playoffs (note how Sht % Factor...

Back in November, around the quarter-mark of the NHL regular season, I wrote a piece looking at Expected Winning Percentages for each team, based on their Goals For/Goals Against ratio, using the PythagenPuck method as outlined in Alan Ryder's " Win Probabilities " article over at Hockey Analytics. Since we're approaching the end of the campaign, I thought it worth revisiting the two assertions I made back in November - that the Ottawa Senators were capable of getting back into the playoff race, and that the Boston Bruins were in danger of a freefall to the bottom of the standings. Just to review, the basic idea behind win probability models like PythagenPuck is that over the course of a season, the Goals For and Goals Against numbers can be used to derive a team's winning percentage, within a a surprisingly narrow margin of error. For instance, if you only had GF/GA information, you could make a very good stab at projecting what the standings would look like. Th...