OTF Classic

Just before the Conference Quarterfinal series began, I posted some predictions that were based on an application of the Shot Quality metric, basically matching each team's offense with the opposing defense, in terms of shots taken and shooting percentage from various distances. Now it's time to see how well that process worked, and in the days to follow, I'll tweak the process slightly based on the findings here, and post projections for the 2nd round series due to start later this week. So first let's review the Eastern Conference series one-by-one... Buffalo/NY Islanders : While the overall numbers came in lower than expected, the difference between the two teams' Expected Goals values (4.37 - 2.91 = 1.46) came in quite close to the Actual Goals (3.25 - 2.00 = 1.25), resulting in an easy victory for the Sabres. My qualitative hunch was that the Islanders' goaltending wouldn't keep up the pace set late in the season, but they actually did acquit them...

The New Jersey Devils/Tampa Bay Lightning matchup would seem to be a very basic clash of styles. New Jersey is what they have been for more than ten years - a solidly deep team that stresses defense and goaltending above all else (only Philadelphia scored fewer goals in the Eastern Conference), whereas Tampa Bay relies on the sensational play from a core group of stars (Lecavalier/St. Louis/Richards) to make things happen. Without further ado, here's my take on how this series shapes up: For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Devils can score : During the regular season New Jersey didn't even average 2.7 goals per game, so the 3.81 expectation here says as much about the Lightning goaltending than anything else. The quantity of shots their teams won't be the concern (overall shots factor of 1.00 means shot totals should be average for New Jersey), but in the 10-19 and 20-29 foot ranges, the shooting percentage takes a big jump, meaning eith...

The Southeast Division is home to the last two Stanley Cup champions (I know it's true, but it still seems wierd to write that), but this season we've seen a new power emerge in the Atlanta Thrashers. While Atlanta chases down their first division title and/or playoff berth, and Carolina has steadily lingered a few points back, the only real movement of late has seen the Tampa Bay Lightning pull ahead of the Washington Capitals for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The other model of consistency has been the Florida Panthers, slinking around the division basement due in part to a league-low five road victories. But underneath their positions in the standings, how have the overall offenses and defenses in the Southeast fared so far this year? Let's break them down team-by-team, focusing on the rolling 10-game averages for Actual (in red) and Expected Goals (in blue), both For and Against. As a guideline, NHL teams on the whole are averaging 2.97 goals...