OTF Classic

Now that Buffalo and Ottawa have made it to the Eastern Conference Finals, I wanted to check in how my predictive modeling performed compared to actual results. Obviously, it wasn't too far off the mark, as I did pick both the Sabres and Senators to make it through. Just to recap, the basic idea behind this model is that I try to map out each team's offense against the opposing defense, projecting shots/game from various distances, shooting percentages, and thereby goals per game. The two key concepts are, first, an interaction between one team's offense and the other's defense (both in terms of shots allowed and goaltending), and secondly, trying to reflect recent performance by the use of exponential moving averages to represent the per-game values*. Bufallo/New York : I was hardly alone in picking the Sabres here, as they were the top team in the regular season, although the Rangers did put up a good fight, and if they had successfully handled the final minute of Gam...

It's not reasonable to expect that the Rangers have much hope of topping the President's Trophy -winning Buffalo Sabres tonight, let alone in the course of their seven-game series. Perhaps then, coach Tom Renney had better make sure that he's ultimately unreasonable in his pregame speech tonight... (more goofing around with News Room feeds)

The New York State NHL Finals begin tonight, as the Rangers head up to Buffalo, and it's time to focus our predictive powers on the likely outcome of this series. The Sabres have been the hot team all year and their rabid fan base has been waiting for this time ever since their playoff elimination last year, but the Rangers, while mediocre for much of the regular season, turned things on down the stretch and dispatched the Southeast division champs in an impressive first-round sweep. So what the numbers say about how this one will go? For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Sabres can score : It seems like Buffalo should get a good number of close-in chances against New York, and the onus will be on Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist to keep things from busting loose. Buffalo is the hottest playoff team remaining in terms of shooting percentage in the prime 10-19 and 20-29 foot ranges, whereas Lundqvist is the hottest goalie at stopping those same s...

Just before the Conference Quarterfinal series began, I posted some predictions that were based on an application of the Shot Quality metric, basically matching each team's offense with the opposing defense, in terms of shots taken and shooting percentage from various distances. Now it's time to see how well that process worked, and in the days to follow, I'll tweak the process slightly based on the findings here, and post projections for the 2nd round series due to start later this week. So first let's review the Eastern Conference series one-by-one... Buffalo/NY Islanders : While the overall numbers came in lower than expected, the difference between the two teams' Expected Goals values (4.37 - 2.91 = 1.46) came in quite close to the Actual Goals (3.25 - 2.00 = 1.25), resulting in an easy victory for the Sabres. My qualitative hunch was that the Islanders' goaltending wouldn't keep up the pace set late in the season, but they actually did acquit them...

It's a new team with some old faces that will square off against the New York Rangers tonight as the Atlanta Thrashers make their playoff debut. So how will the blue hairs do against the blueshirts? Let's see what my angle on the numbers has to say: For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Thrashers can score : For Atlanta, it's all about execution. Their shooting percentage from close range is excellent, and the Rangers defense is giving up the opportunities, but the goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist has been saving their bacon. The Thrashers have a number of excellent finishers in Hossa, Kovalchuk, Kozlov and Tkachuk, however, and they will push Lundqvist's abilities to the limit. How the Rangers can score : Hockey commentators love to talk about digging hard for the "tough goals" in the playoffs, and for the Rangers, that does indeed seem to be their formula for success. They are generating the most shots from 29 feet in amongst...