OTF Classic

One of the age-old debates around any hockey team is whether your favorite squad is big enough and tough enough not just to cope with the long struggle of the NHL season, but whether they can intimidate an opponent into defeat. Back in the 1990's, Philadelphia fans drooled over the gargantuan Legion of Doom, while the Ottawa Senators, to cite one example, were accused of being too small and soft as they flopped in the playoffs a few years ago. When we get right down to it, though, which are the biggest and smallest teams in the league today? To answer that question, I took the current player listing from NHL.com and linked it up to the player bio information , in order to get height and weight by team. For clarification, no goalies are included here, nor are players who didn't dress for at least one game in the 2007-8 NHL Regular Season. That said, we're left with a clear enough picture to follow the trends, so here are our contestants, sorted by average player weight: ...

As hockey fans all over North America giddily pour over their team's schedule for the 2008-9 NHL Regular Season, let's take a look at things from an overall perspective, using the NHL Super Schedule , which I recently made publicly available via Google Docs. 1. Crank Up The Bus : This season's most well-traveled team will be the San Jose Sharks, with 56,111 miles to be logged, followed by the Calgary Flames (52,941) and Dallas Stars (51,541). This is a marked departure from last season , which saw Vancouver and Edmonton lead the way in frequent flyer miles. On the opposite end, it's no surprise to see East-Coast teams like the New York Islanders (28,126), Washington Capitals (28,321) and New Jersey Devils (29,289) with the least travel. 2. Break Out the Smelling Salts : One of the more grueling aspects of NHL life is having to deal with back-to-back games, when a team has less than 24 hours to recover from one brutal match before taking on another opponent. ...

Click here for the 2009-10 NHL Super Schedule , at my new site, www.ontheforecheck.com ! The NHL announced the 2008-9 Regular Season schedule today, so of course, it's time right here to publish my very own NHL Super Schedule 2008-9 as well. For those unfamiliar with what I did last year, the NHL Super Schedule is a spreadsheet that I put together and make publicly available via Google Documents*. It includes an entry for each game in each team's 82-game regular season schedule, with additional information such as how far that team has had to travel since its last game, how many days have passed since that previous game, and various statistics relative to the opponent that evening, such as 2007-8 Winning Percentage, Goals Per Game, Goals Against Per Game, etc. For example, you can total the distance that each team will travel during the upcoming season, or find who plays the most back-to-back games. Check out which team faces the toughest opposing offenses, or which power ...

As promised, after having had time to digest Alan Ryder's epic 50-page 2008 NHL Review , I'm here to chime in with thoughts on the overall analysis, as well as a look at how the Nashville Predators fared in particular. First, a bit of an introduction to Ryder's work. Alan's research articles, found in full over at HockeyAnalytics.com , aim not just to apply statistical analysis to the study of NHL hockey, but also to properly balance the various factors within the game, giving appropriate emphasis to goaltending vs. power-play production, for example. His basic approach within this review is to start from the foundation of team accomplishment (measured as points in the standings), then to divide that up between members of that team according to their individual Player Contribution (PC). This PC value is calibrated such that 10 PC points are equivalent to one earned point in the NHL standings. Thus the Detroit Red Wings, who won the Presidents Trophy with 115 points...

The opening faceoff of the 2008 Stanley Cup Finals is mere hours away, so it's the right time to take a look at how the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins match up in the faceoff circle, and how that might shape the outcome of the series. In yesterday's Globe and Mail, uber-hockey statistician Alan Ryder made the case that the Red Wings will hold a critical advantage in this area, citing the fact that Detroit was #1 in the NHL with a 53% winning rate during the regular season, compared to Pittsburgh's league-worst 46%. Adjust those figures for how they might do specifically against each other, prorate that across 50-60 faceoffs per game, and that does indeed appear to give the Red Wings an extra minute or two of puck possession per game, which, when you're looking for difference-makers between two top teams, could be a decisive factor. What I decided to do was to take a peek inside those overall percentages, and focus on how each of the main faceoff men (Cr...

Sure, most folks these days are waxing poetic about the NHL's great fortune in hosting a Detroit vs. Pittsburgh Stanley Cup Final, and yes, I'm looking forward to a dynamic series as much as the next fan. Something over at NHL.com caught my eye today, however, and it makes me want to give the crew over there a standing ovation. Until now, if you were to comb through their online stats, say be sorting all players in 2007-8 based on goals scored, as you surfed from one page to the next (since each page presents 30 players) the columns would shift around, a deliberate attempt to prevent people from automatically scraping that data off the website. The work could still be done, but it had to be done so by hand (or especially clever scripting), and it was a brutally unnecessary pain in the butt. Going through all the skaters, for example, involved 29 pages that would have to be copied, pasted, and edited in Excel to come up with one coherent list. Today, while grabbing some info ...

There's a very interesting article this morning over at the Vancouver Sun, discussing the analytical work of former NHL GM Mike Smith , and how Mike Gillis, who just took over as Canucks GM, might make use of advanced hockey statistics in his new role. Here's a quote from Smith that pretty much says it all: "Everybody will be doing some version of this in four, five or six years. Most owners are doing business analytics in their own businesses. It's here to stay." In a salary cap-driven NHL, payroll dollars are a constrained resource, so it only makes sense to apply whatever tools you can to ensure the maximum return on that investment. Particularly for a team like Nashville, which doesn't have the luxury of living at the high end of the salary cap range, this is even more true. One of the great frustrations I run into doing some of this work is that I have to spend too much time reassembling information into data; extracting play-by-play files, merging that...

UPDATE : The more I look at this piece, the more I wished I had just hit "Delete". I worked up some numbers, thought I had something interesting, started writing the piece, dug a little more, started to wonder whether it was worth it, and by the end, while becoming less enamoured of where I was headed, I figured I'd stitched enough together that I should just put it out there anyway. In retrospect, I really shouldn't have bothered. The following scene is sure to replayed throughout NHL telecasts this spring, whenever an important game is on tap: Polished announcer : "... yes, this is a big one tonight indeed. So tell me, [ color commentator], what do the [insert your favorite team] have to do tonight to pull out the victory?" Crusty Ex-player/coach : "well, if there's one thing all my years in the league have taught me, [polished announcer], it's that they really need to get that first goal of the game, and avoid playing from behind....

Back in February we looked at which NHL teams were generating those precious rebound shots , dangerous offensive opportunities wherin a player fires a close-in shot within two seconds of a previous shot on goal. When controlling for factors like shot distance, type, on-ice strength (power play, penalty kill, even strength) and other factors, rebounds still remain significantly more likely to score than other shots. As the playoffs approach, and the pressure builds on those teams battling for postseason berths, these high-percentage scoring chances become critically important. Since we've considered the offensive side of that situation, it's time to turn our attention to the defensive end of the ice. Which teams are standing strong in front of their goaltender, sweeping away loose pucks and denying position to crease-crashers like Detroit's Tomas Holmstrom, while others roll out the red carpet and leave their goaltender hanging? When looking at this statistic I prefer ...

While the web-surfing hockey fan can find reams of analysis as to which teams did or did not help themselves on the NHL's Trade Deadline Day this week, there's another question worth answering when one considers how tight the playoff races remain . To what extent has the remaining schedule for various teams gotten tougher or easier, depending on what their upcoming opponents have done to their rosters? Since the 5th-9th spots in the West are separated by a mere 4 points, and 6th-11th by just 6 in the East, strength of schedule will play a critical role in determining who makes the post-season and who's playing golf in early April. All season long I've used a custom spreadsheet made freely available on the web to provide some detail behind the NHL schedule; it includes information such as how many days have elapsed for each team between games, how far they had to travel, their opponents' vital competitive statistics, etc. In light of Tuesday's frenetic tradin...

Attention, NHL General Managers; just in time for all you last minute-shoppers, I've got your Penalty Plus/Minus* update through the games of February 24, 2008. With Sidney Crosby out of the lineup for so long, Dustin Brown of the Los Angeles Kings is now your league leader with a +35 rating, followed by Sid the Kid and Alexander Ovechkin at +31. UPDATE : I just saw that the Colorado Avalanche have acquired Ruslan Salei from Florida. Congratulations, you just snagged the very worst Penalty Plus/Minus player in the entire NHL, at -30! I wonder if they plan on playing Forsberg on the penalty kill... Remember to consult this list before making that final pitch for that player you're seeking to obtain, so as to adjust your offer accordingly. You can go with something like this: "Yeah, I can see why you're offering up Bobby Holik, but how's he going to help me defensively when he's got a -17 Penalty Plus/Minus? I'm going to have to pick up an extra penalty ki...

As we head into the final quarter of the NHL regular season, tension builds as playoff races intensify, and every goal seems to take on added importance. During these times, and the playoffs to follow, we often hear that the difference between winning and losing comes down to which team battles harder down close to the goal working for rebound opportunities after a shot has been stopped by an opposing goaltender. Rebound shots* are a relatively rare commodity in the NHL, averaging roughly three per game over the course of a season. That scarcity only adds to their importance, however, because the typical rebound shot stands a greater chance of scoring than other attempts , after taking shot distance, on-ice strength and shot type into account. So which teams are getting the job done down low, grabbing rebounds and getting off that second shot? And which ones are converting those dangerous chances into goals? Let's take a look at the following table to find out: Perhaps what is...

Today's feature comes via the prompting of David, a reader of this blog who noted to me in an email that "it seems that teams on the power play seem to win face-offs most of the time. I figured it was just one of those weird perception things... that really had no merit." David then showed some numbers from selected teams that seemed to indicate a trend, so I went ahead and pulled all the data for this season up through the games of February 13, and came up with the following results for teams depending on the situation (even strength, power play, shorthanded): Faceoff Percentages By Team & Situation Team EV % PP % SH % Tot % Anaheim Ducks 51.09% 50.97% 42.45% 49.68% Atlanta Thrashers 52.74% 58.81% 40.92% 51.87% Boston Bruins 49.14% 54.99% 38.19% 48.33% Buffalo Sabres 45.99% 61.76% 42.52% 47.71% Calgary Flames 50.33% 54.57% 41.96% 49.71% Carolina Hurricanes 50.08% 58.02% 46.97% 50.92% Chicago Blackhawks 51.74% 60.68% 46.41% 52.41% Colorado Avalanche 47.80% ...

I've tried to help you people think more analytically about the game of hockey, but sometimes I wonder if the message is ever going to get through. I've laid out that fact that there's a significant lefty/righty matchup advantage to be exploited in the shootout, that indicators like Goals For & Against are perhaps a better barometer of team success than standings points, and that penalties taken & drawn are hugely important, and under-appreciated. Yet I don't think that statistically-driven analysis has taken the NHL by storm. TV Analysts drone on with their bland, uninsightful comments and ignorant fans accept them on blind faith because they don't know any better. Perhaps it's time to take another tack, using video instruction to drive the point home: There, that oughta do it. I expect those job offers for Director of Quantitative Analysis will be landing on my doorstep shortly... Tip o' the Hat to the guys at On Frozen Blog for uploading th...

Today's analysis was inspired by a comment left here by Magicpie over at Nucksblog , who wondered whether some NHL goaltenders perform better when they face more shots. That's certainly part of the Common Wisdom of hockey, and when asked, just about every goaltender admits that facing frequent pressure helps them stay focused. But in the final analysis, does this really hold true? I went back through the game-by-game details for #1 goaltenders over the last two full seasons, to find out which guys fare better facing a ton of shots, and which ones wilt under the pressure. The measurements presented in the graphs below represent Save Percentage for each game, measured against the average Time Between Shots that the goalie faced, with a trendline in bold summarizing that relationship across an entire season. A line that slopes downward to the right shows that as the Time Between Shots becomes shorter, the Save Percentage tends to increase. An upward sloping line indicates a Save ...

It's time once again to review the NHL's Penalty Plus/Minus leaders, as I've refreshed the data up through the games of Sunday, December 3rd. Alex Ovechkin continues to lead with a +20 mark, followed by Sidney Crosby at +17 and Pavel Datsyuk with +14. Again, we see big-name talent leading the way here, as expected. All of these players give opposing defenses fits, so it's no surprise to see them getting hauled down more than other players. On the opposite end of things, we see the lower part of the rankings dominated by defensemen, whose job it is to prevent scoring chances, and thus are sometimes forced into taking penalties when beaten by an incoming forward. In fact, 11 out of the 12 spots at the bottom of this list are defensemen. The rarity here is to find defensemen who are drawing a significant number of penalties more than they commit; that list is led by Calgary's Dion Phaneuf, Nashville's Dan Hamhuis, and the Islanders' Chris Campoli, who are...

It's been a couple weeks, so the Penalty Plus/Minus numbers have been refreshed to capture the NHL games up through Sunday night, November 25. Alexander Ovechkin has taken the lead over Sidney Crosby, with a +18 to Sid's +15. We still see this list overwhelmingly dominated by big-name talent, as opposed to energetic grinders. Perhaps one way to use this new metric is to provide another factor for the Hart Trophy debate; after all, if you're focusing on the top players in the league in order to figure out who should be the MVP, you might start with the current scoring leaders: NHL Scoring leaders as of Nov. 26, 200 POS Player TM GP G A PTS +/- C Vincent Lecavalier TAM 23 16 22 38 10 C Sidney Crosby PIT 23 12 21 33 3 LW Ilya Kovalchuk ATL 23 19 14 33 4 LW Henrik Zetterberg DET 23 16 16 32 10 Convincing arguments could go in any number of directions from here. Lecavalier is our leading scorer, but Sid's close behind and the reigning MVP. Kovalchuk is leading a resurgent p...

It's time once again to take a look at how teams are performing around the NHL relative to what one would expect based on Goals For/Against ratios, and it's PythagenPuck to the rescue. For newbies, the basic idea here is that at this point in the season, perhaps a better description of team performance is to be found in their Goals For/Against ratios than in their Win/Loss totals. Last season, a similar analysis I performed at this point sagely predicted that Ottawa was still a beast despite their sub-.500 record, and that the Boston Bruins , who at that time were in line for a playoff berth, were ready for a steep fall into NHL oblivion. What I do here is look at Goals For and Against during regulation play (i.e. excluding shootouts and overtime), and look at how teams are earning points in the standings, compared to how many points the PythagenPuck formula would predict. For most teams, these numbers are quite close, but for the few outliers on each end of the spectru...

After a wild and wooly NHL weekend, there's much to cover, so I'll provide a number of items for you this morning. 1. I've updated the Penalty information over at the Google Spreadsheet , and in an effort to find the most useful and practical presentation, I've put the following columns out there: Player, Penalties Drawn, Penalties Committed, Penalty +/-, Position, and Team. This allows you to zero in on your favorite team, and also draw comparisons based on player position. My hunch is that defensemen will fare poorly here relative to forwards, due to the nature of their work; they're trying to prevent goals, and have to hook, hold or trip more often than the zoomers up front. For those not able to access the spreadsheet, I've included the best and worst players in this measure at the bottom of this post. 2. I took my oldest son (5) to his first NHL game on Saturday, as we watched the Predators defeat the Blue Jackets in a shootout. K...