OTF Classic

As we enjoy these calm few days before the frenzy of free-agent mania hits, I thought I'd provide an update on the hottest and coldest shooters of the season just passed. Our guide here is the concept of Shot Quality, pioneered by Alan Ryder and (as implemented here) used to express the probability that a given shot is going to result in a goal, based on distance from the net, shot type (slap, wrist, etc.) and situation (power play, even-strength, shorthanded). Basically, 200 shots from a defenseman firing from the point aren't going to produce as many goals as 200 shots from a winger who fires more often from the slot. It's important to remember that the accuracy of the information recorded during NHL games is often less than we'd desire, and while I'm not (in this post) going to the extreme of introducing rink-by-rink effects to try and somehow "correct" the data, Alan's latest piece regarding these problems is well worth a read. I'll utiliz...

There's a new piece over at Hockey Analytics which I heartily recommend to those interested in furthering the use of statistics related to NHL hockey. Alan Ryder pioneered the investigation of Shot Quality, which attempts to measure the characteristics of shots (distance, type, situation) to provide a more finely detailed view of offensive and defensive performance. I use a slightly simplified version of Alan's SQ techniques in my analysis here quite often, so when the article entitled " Product Recall Notice for Shot Quality " was posted, it definitely caught my eye. While it is obvious to anyone who has read through the NHL's play-by-play files that data quality problems exist, the presumption has been that these errors are basically random and cancel each other out over the course of 70,000+ shots in an NHL season. By looking at arena-by-arena details, however, Alan has raised some pretty serious issues with the data, basically demonstrating that scorers i...

The Buffalo vs. Ottawa pairing for the Eastern Conference Finals should result in a spectacular display of "new NHL" hockey, pitting two talented, offensively-oriented teams in a battle for the Prince of Wales Trophy . My predictive method of matching offense against defense and focusing on recent performance has proven pretty useful so far - so what does it say about this series? How the Sabres can score : Buffalo appears to be all about the execution - their shooting percentage from the prime scoring ranges (10-19 and 20-29 feet) is the best among the four remaining teams, and that ability to hit your spot under pressure (recall Chris Drury's 0:07 game-tying goal against the Rangers) will be critical to the Sabre's success in this series. They'll need that composure to beat Ray Emery in goal, who has been outstanding for Ottawa so far in the playoffs. How the Senators can score : Ottawa can be expected to pop off about four more shots per game than Buffalo, but...

With Detroit and Anaheim pushing their way into the Western Conference Final, it's time to recap the predictions made here a couple weeks back, to see how well they performed: Detroit/San Jose : I picked Detroit (albeit in 7 games), based on an expected advantage of 6-7 shots per game, and strong goaltending from Dominik Hasek. That's pretty close to how things actually turned out, as the Red Wings outshot the Sharks by 7.7 shots per contest and Hasek (despite an exciting trip or two behind the net) generally outplayed Nabokov. All the highlights from Detroit's series clinching win Monday night. Anaheim/Vancouver : This was my lone miss of the second round, as I had called for a Canucks victory, since the Ducks weren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard as of late and faced the outstanding Roberto Luongo in net. While Luongo held up his end of the bargain, the Vancouver defense (ravaged by injury) gave up too many shots, particularly close-range shots, to consistently ...

Now that Buffalo and Ottawa have made it to the Eastern Conference Finals, I wanted to check in how my predictive modeling performed compared to actual results. Obviously, it wasn't too far off the mark, as I did pick both the Sabres and Senators to make it through. Just to recap, the basic idea behind this model is that I try to map out each team's offense against the opposing defense, projecting shots/game from various distances, shooting percentages, and thereby goals per game. The two key concepts are, first, an interaction between one team's offense and the other's defense (both in terms of shots allowed and goaltending), and secondly, trying to reflect recent performance by the use of exponential moving averages to represent the per-game values*. Bufallo/New York : I was hardly alone in picking the Sabres here, as they were the top team in the regular season, although the Rangers did put up a good fight, and if they had successfully handled the final minute of Gam...

We have a classic clash of styles in the New Jersey/Ottawa Eastern Conference Semifinal, between the defense-first Devils and the dynamic Senators. In my humble opinion these matchups make for some of the more entertaining series, but let's see what the numbers tell us about how this will shake out. For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Devils can score : There's not much outstanding when it comes to the New Jersey offense - they take an average amount of shots, with a pretty typical distribution in terms of short vs. long range, and the execution in terms of scoring percentages is right around average as well. The Ottawa defense isn't likely to shut them down, but the goaltending has been fairly strong as of late posing a challenge to a Devils offense that doesn't want to get stuck playing from behind. How the Senators can score : The Senators will be expected to outshoot the Devils by 2-3 shots per game, which may not sound like much...

I'm guessing there won't be too many people in the Eastern time zone staying up to watch the Western Conference Semifinal between Anaheim and Vancouver all the way through - between the late start times and the dominant goaltending, this series could be an insomniac's salvation for the next couple weeks. Be that as it may, let's see what might happen when you throw these teams together... For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Ducks can score : The Ducks aren't exactly lighting the scoreboard up these days, and the prospect of facing Robert Luongo doesn't lead one to believe anything's going to change soon. Anaheim does generate a good deal of shots from the 10-19 foot range, where most scoring occurs, but their scoring percentage there is nothing to write home about (.148 vs. a league average of .183). How the Canucks can score : "Shoot it long, and shoot it strong," should be the Canucks motto - Ducks goaltendin...

The New York State NHL Finals begin tonight, as the Rangers head up to Buffalo, and it's time to focus our predictive powers on the likely outcome of this series. The Sabres have been the hot team all year and their rabid fan base has been waiting for this time ever since their playoff elimination last year, but the Rangers, while mediocre for much of the regular season, turned things on down the stretch and dispatched the Southeast division champs in an impressive first-round sweep. So what the numbers say about how this one will go? For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Sabres can score : It seems like Buffalo should get a good number of close-in chances against New York, and the onus will be on Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist to keep things from busting loose. Buffalo is the hottest playoff team remaining in terms of shooting percentage in the prime 10-19 and 20-29 foot ranges, whereas Lundqvist is the hottest goalie at stopping those same s...

Now that the *yawn* thrilling Stars/Canucks series has concluded, it's time to see how well the Shot Quality-driven predictions made here a couple weeks ago held up. Detroit/Calgary : The expectation was that the Red Wings would outshoot the Flames significantly, but superior goaltending by Miikka Kiprusoff would keep the series close and I had Detroit winning in seven (having it end in the 2nd overtime of Game Six is pretty close, ain't it?). That turned out fairly close to the actual result, although Detroit shut down Calgary's offense (both in terms of shot totals and goals yielded) even more than anticipated. Anaheim/Minnesota : OK, here's the one for the dumpster - I picked the Wild in five games, based on the red-hot goaltending of Nicklas Backstrom . Backstrom pretty much kept up his end of the bargain, keeping the Ducks down to the tune of 2.20 goals per game, but it was the Wild offense that failed to show up. Overall shot totals were expected to be dead-even ...

Just before the Conference Quarterfinal series began, I posted some predictions that were based on an application of the Shot Quality metric, basically matching each team's offense with the opposing defense, in terms of shots taken and shooting percentage from various distances. Now it's time to see how well that process worked, and in the days to follow, I'll tweak the process slightly based on the findings here, and post projections for the 2nd round series due to start later this week. So first let's review the Eastern Conference series one-by-one... Buffalo/NY Islanders : While the overall numbers came in lower than expected, the difference between the two teams' Expected Goals values (4.37 - 2.91 = 1.46) came in quite close to the Actual Goals (3.25 - 2.00 = 1.25), resulting in an easy victory for the Sabres. My qualitative hunch was that the Islanders' goaltending wouldn't keep up the pace set late in the season, but they actually did acquit them...

Two of the most balanced teams in the Western Conference meet up tonight in Game 1 between the Detroit Red Wings and Calgary Flames. Each team has top-notch scorers up front (Jarome Iginla/Pavel Datsyuk), elite defenders along the blue line (Dion Phaneuf/Nicklas Lidstrom) and potentially game-stealing goalies behind them (Miikka Kiprusoff/Dominik Hasek). Up front I'll tell you I think this is the most intriguing matchup in the NHL so far, but here's what my spin on the numbers says about who'll come out on top: For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Red Wings can score : Overall, the Red Wings (as has usually been the case for the last 15 years) put loads of shots on net, particularly from 40 feet out, which isn't surprising with the likes of Lidstrom and Mathieu Schneider back there. The Flames tend to give up more of those shots as well, so look for the Detroit D to fire away early and often, and bank on Tomas Holmstrom, Kyle Calder an...

It's a new team with some old faces that will square off against the New York Rangers tonight as the Atlanta Thrashers make their playoff debut. So how will the blue hairs do against the blueshirts? Let's see what my angle on the numbers has to say: For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Thrashers can score : For Atlanta, it's all about execution. Their shooting percentage from close range is excellent, and the Rangers defense is giving up the opportunities, but the goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist has been saving their bacon. The Thrashers have a number of excellent finishers in Hossa, Kovalchuk, Kozlov and Tkachuk, however, and they will push Lundqvist's abilities to the limit. How the Rangers can score : Hockey commentators love to talk about digging hard for the "tough goals" in the playoffs, and for the Rangers, that does indeed seem to be their formula for success. They are generating the most shots from 29 feet in amongst...

The New Jersey Devils/Tampa Bay Lightning matchup would seem to be a very basic clash of styles. New Jersey is what they have been for more than ten years - a solidly deep team that stresses defense and goaltending above all else (only Philadelphia scored fewer goals in the Eastern Conference), whereas Tampa Bay relies on the sensational play from a core group of stars (Lecavalier/St. Louis/Richards) to make things happen. Without further ado, here's my take on how this series shapes up: For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Devils can score : During the regular season New Jersey didn't even average 2.7 goals per game, so the 3.81 expectation here says as much about the Lightning goaltending than anything else. The quantity of shots their teams won't be the concern (overall shots factor of 1.00 means shot totals should be average for New Jersey), but in the 10-19 and 20-29 foot ranges, the shooting percentage takes a big jump, meaning eith...

The New York Islanders made a storybook run just to qualify for the playoffs, but will that happy tale continue as they face off against the President's Trophy -winning Buffalo Sabres? My first-round previews continue with tonight's 1 vs. 8 Eastern Conference tilt... For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Sabres can score : Buffalo already boasts a top-notch offense, but when you factor in the amount of shots that the Islanders give up as well, that's just throwing gasoline on the fire. In particular, note the "Shots Factor" entries from 29 feet and in. The New York blueline might as well roll out the red carpet and escort opposing forwards into the slot. From 10-19 feet, for example, the Islanders are yielding 45% more shots than average. How the Islanders can score : New York can also take hope in the fact that the Sabres cough up scoring chances as well, particularly in mid-range shots from 20-49 feet. The Islanders are also d...

The Anaheim Ducks energized their fans last summer when they brought Chris Pronger in via trade, and charged out of the gate as the NHL's top team during the first two months of the regular season. Now that the playoffs are here, will they still be able to dominate against a Minnesota Wild team that lurked in the mediocre Northwest, only to make a strong charge down the stretch? Let's see what the numbers can tell us... For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How Anaheim can score : Take a good long look at that "Sht % Factor" line, and abandon all hope, Ducks fans. Minnesota's goaltending appears to be the story of this series, choking off scoring opportunities to the point that Anaheim is only expected to score 2.02 goals per game (+0.25 for home games ), easily the lowest mark amongst all of these first-round matchups. The key here will be on the close-in shots, of 19 feet or less. The Ducks should get their share of those shots, but if ...

The skinny on East vs. West in the NHL this year is that the Western Conference has had more defensive-oriented teams, and a perfect example of that trend is found in the Vancouver/Dallas series. Both teams have various strengths and weaknesses, but above all else they have been solid defensive performers all season, whereas few teams in the East can make the same claim. So how do these teams match up? Let's take a look inside the numbers ... For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How Vancouver can score : The Canucks don't exactly light things up offensively, and perhaps their best chance at increased offense lies in long-distance shooting. The Dallas goaltending is quite poor on shots outside of 30 feet (note the Sht % Factor well above 1.00 in each case), and when you combine that with relatively good shooting from 40-49 and 50-59 feet for the Canucks, point shots on the power play coupled with effective screening could result in about one goal per ga...

Perhaps the most anticipated series in the first round pits the perennial regular season powerhouse Ottawa Senators against the sensational Pittsburgh Penguins, the team that nearly moved out of town, only to wind up in the playoffs instead. The media focus on Sidney Crosby's first postseason will be intense, which perhaps takes some of the pressure off the Senators to finally make good on the promises they've made for the last several years. They've got plenty of star power on both sides, but how will the numbers shake out? For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How Ottawa can score : Shots, shots, and more shots seems to be the story here, as Ottawa takes a lot of shots, and the Pens give up a bunch as well, a dangerous combination. Much like the San Jose Sharks , expect the Sens to generate most of their goals from the 10-29 foot range. Although Marc-Andre Fleury's goaltending has been excellent leading into the playoffs (note how Sht % Factor...

Our first playoff preview digs into the eagerly awaited #4 vs. #5 matchup in the West, between the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks. Last year, these two teams met in the first round and the Sharks dispatched the Preds in five games, largely attributed to two factors; the first being Nashville's inability to stay out the penalty box, and secondly, the advantage the Sharks had at the center position. Since that time, the Predators have upgraded significantly at the center spot (a couple guys named Arnott and Forsberg come to mind), and they've done a better job at staying on the positive side of the special-teams equation as well. Both teams have ranked among the NHL elite all season long, and are slotted 1st and 3rd in mc79hockey's Adjusted Goal Differential . But what does my analysis say about how these two teams match up? For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How Nashville can score : The Predators' strength seems to be in perimeter s...