Vancouver/Dallas: Goaltending dominated this series, even more so than expected, as Roberto Luongo clamped down on the Stars in the two primary scoring ranges, 10-19 and 20-29 feet. For the Stars, Marty Turco acquited himself admirably, posting three shutouts and topping Luongo's save percentage across the series, .952 against .950. This one was nice as I actually picked the Canucks in seven games, although it seemed like seven weeks.Nashville/San Jose: While I was pulling for the Preds, the numbers just didn't look good going in, and my pick of the Sharks in 6 looked generous when San Jose actually closed things out in Game Five. Once again, the shot total expectations seemed to be pretty accurate (28.73/26.60 for San Jose, 33.94/32.60 for Nashville), and it looked like Evgeni Nabokov basically shut the Preds down from long range, not allowing any scores from 40+ feet, where Nashville would have expected about 0.6 goals per game. While Tomas Vokoun put in a yeoman's effort in his net (equalling Nabokov's .902 save percentage), the overall goal-scoring margin came in very close to the predicted value (3.74-3.01=0.73 Expected, against 3.20-2.60=0.60 Actual), resulting in a clear-cut advantage for the Sharks.
Once again, the proper team was chosen in three out of four series, so while I may make some minor adjustments to the method, I'll generate something similar for Round Two and start posting those predictions soon.