OTF Classic

After basking in the glow of the high-octane "New NHL" for a couple seasons, the grousing has begun once again, declaring that defense is regaining the upper hand, and another set of adjustments needs to be made to the NHL rulebook to keep fans entertained. James Mirtle recently posted a piece claiming that removing the two-line offside pass has somehow been a " contributing factor in the decline in scoring ", and there was some discussion recently about expanding the size of nets to produce more goals. Others want to see 4-on-4 play become the standard, just as it is in regular season overtime. But is it really true that we've already returned to the "clutch & grab" 1990's? While there seems to be a cottage industry of commentators putting forth their list of ways to improve the on-ice NHL product, all too often those suggestions are made based on subjective assumptions about how the game is playing out, rather than the cold hard facts. Sure e...

Last Friday I touched on the leaders in the NHL Central Division, Nashville and Detroit, but now let's catch up with the rest of the pack. Again, we're looking at trend lines reflecting Actual (red) vs. Expected (blue) Goals on the offensive and defensive side. In general I've tried to keep the preceding graphs relatively free of "visual commentary", but since each of these teams have changed their head coaches already this year, I've put indicators in reflecting those milestones. So let's meet our contestants... ST. LOUIS BLUES : The Blues have been on fire since Andy Murray took the helm, going 12-4-4 in eighteen games. Looking at the Expected Goals For trendline doesn't seem to indicate any huge change in offensive approach, but the steady increase in Actual Goals For seems to say that something is indeed in the works in terms of shot execution. We'll know the answer to that shortly after the All-Star break, in terms of whether that hot streak o...

Continuing our tour through the various NHL divisions, it's time to focus on the Central Division, which for the last several years has served as Detroit's personal happy place (five straight 1st-place finishes), but this year is in danger of going Country, as the Nashville Predators currently stand at the top of the overall NHL standings, with the Red Wings four points back. Both teams have flown under the hockey world's radar in light of Buffalo and Anaheim's hot starts, but are legitimate President's Trophy contenders. The rest of the division has generally played the role of the Washington Generals for Detroit and Nashville over the last couple years, but after recent coaching changes, there is at least hope for competitive balance to return to what was once the close-knit Norris Division of old. Unfortunately I don't have time today to post graphs for all five teams in the division, so I'll focus on Nashville & Detroit for now. NASHVILLE PREDATORS ...

The Southeast Division is home to the last two Stanley Cup champions (I know it's true, but it still seems wierd to write that), but this season we've seen a new power emerge in the Atlanta Thrashers. While Atlanta chases down their first division title and/or playoff berth, and Carolina has steadily lingered a few points back, the only real movement of late has seen the Tampa Bay Lightning pull ahead of the Washington Capitals for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The other model of consistency has been the Florida Panthers, slinking around the division basement due in part to a league-low five road victories. But underneath their positions in the standings, how have the overall offenses and defenses in the Southeast fared so far this year? Let's break them down team-by-team, focusing on the rolling 10-game averages for Actual (in red) and Expected Goals (in blue), both For and Against. As a guideline, NHL teams on the whole are averaging 2.97 goals...

Due to popular demand (OK, one email someone sent me), I thought I'd expand on my recent article covering the Atlanta and New Jersey offensive trends, and go through all 30 NHL teams, covering both offense and defense in terms of generating (and preventing) shots, measured by quantity and quality. By using Shots For, Shots Against, and Shot Quality to come up with Expected Goals For and Against, we are effectively isolating team play from the effects of stellar or subpar goaltending. Where there's a significantly wide and persistent gap between those two values, we start to consider whether it's the goalie's fault (in a defensive slide), or a run against a series of superior opposing goalies (for an offensive drought), etc. Today we'll begin with the Northwest Division, that morass of mediocrity that currently shows all five teams within a mere four points in the standings. Will things stay this close over the next few months, or will a team or two start to take the...

Having recently examined the hot and cold individual shooters in the NHL, it's time to look at some team-wide performances, focusing on the leaders in the Atlantic and Southeast divisions. Early in the season, the Atlanta Thrashers were one of the feel-good stories of the NHL. Still searching for their first playoff appearance, they charged out of the gate and by early December, after their first 29 games, looked ready to run away with the Southeast division. The offense was averaging 3.48 goals per game, but a little over a month later, they've failed to maintain that momentum, playing .500 hockey since then and averaging only 2.38 goals per game. Fortunately for the Thrashers, the competition chasing them is flailing around the .500 mark as well, but does this offensive swoon mean that another regular season will end in disappointment? Perhaps not... The graph below shows the overall offensive trend for the Thrashers so far this year. The red dotted line shows (non-empty net...

I just wanted to pass along a quick thought-provoker before heading down to the GEC for tonight's Ducks/Predators game. Just examining the offensive side of the game, it appears that Anaheim is going through a slow yet persistent offensive slide, whereas the nature of the Nashville offense is changing. Here's a snapshot of what the Ducks have been up to. The blue lines represent shots per game (dotted indicates the trend), and the red ones represent average Shot Quality. Anaheim's overall shot totals are pretty stable, but the SQ trend line is sharply negative. With .100 being a league-wide average, they've gone from the penthouse to the outhouse, including five straight subpar offensive showings. Besides the injuries in goal and on the blue line, that's a worrysome trend for Randy Carlyle and crew. As to Nashville, they've seen Shots Per Game decline slightly over the course of time, but an increase in average Shot Quality helps neutralize that effect. Their ov...