Offensively Lame Ducks?

I just wanted to pass along a quick thought-provoker before heading down to the GEC for tonight's Ducks/Predators game. Just examining the offensive side of the game, it appears that Anaheim is going through a slow yet persistent offensive slide, whereas the nature of the Nashville offense is changing.

Here's a snapshot of what the Ducks have been up to. The blue lines represent shots per game (dotted indicates the trend), and the red ones represent average Shot Quality. Anaheim's overall shot totals are pretty stable, but the SQ trend line is sharply negative. With .100 being a league-wide average, they've gone from the penthouse to the outhouse, including five straight subpar offensive showings. Besides the injuries in goal and on the blue line, that's a worrysome trend for Randy Carlyle and crew.

As to Nashville, they've seen Shots Per Game decline slightly over the course of time, but an increase in average Shot Quality helps neutralize that effect. Their overall offense isn't surging or declining, but rather they seem to be taking slightly fewer, albeit more dangerous, shots.

Sorry for the rushed nature of this post, gotta head out the door. Come back in the days ahead for more thorough analysis of particular teams which may go shopping ahead of the trade deadline...

How I'm Trying To Make Money Sports Blogging

To kick off this series of articles general sports-blogging articles here at OTF Classic, I think it's best to start with a comment that Brad left here last week, after I shared my goals for 2012, which include specific revenue targets:
I considered diving into the world of internet marketing myself, but I felt that my friends would hate me for bugging them about stuff. I mean, it's pretty low-risk high-reward, so it's tempting. I wouldn't mind reading about tips on how to maximize impact of blogging in general to make it a legitimate income source. Trying to make money at sports blogging can be a very touchy subject - for the vast majority of us, this is an activity we pursue to both exercise our creativity and share our love of the game, whether it's hockey, football, badminton, whatever, with fellow fans. Mixing that personal conversation with a commercial message can turn people off, especially if it becomes too intrusive for the reader.

It's not unreasonabl…

Canadian Baloney, starring James Mirtle

A tireless refrain from the Canadian media is that Nashville is an absolute failure as a hockey market, and failing to move the team north of the border is an exercise in folly by the NHL.

Our latest exhibit comes from James Mirtle, usually one of the more thoughtful hockey bloggers extant:
But Nashville, quite simply, has proven it cannot sustain an NHL hockey team. Even with the lowest ticket prices in the entire league (I know: I've looked into flying there for a game or two) and a ridiculously forgiving arena lease, the team has had attendance issues despite having one of the best records in the league.

It's not a matter of Canadians not wanting teams in the southern U.S.; I've argued time and again in favour of teams like Dallas and Tampa Bay that have supported their teams and really brought something to the table in terms of bringing news fans and new energy to the game. That's a good thing.

The Predators, however, are not that, not in the beginning and certainly no…

Hooray for PythagenPuck

Back in November, around the quarter-mark of the NHL regular season, I wrote a piece looking at Expected Winning Percentages for each team, based on their Goals For/Goals Against ratio, using the PythagenPuck method as outlined in Alan Ryder's "Win Probabilities" article over at Hockey Analytics. Since we're approaching the end of the campaign, I thought it worth revisiting the two assertions I made back in November - that the Ottawa Senators were capable of getting back into the playoff race, and that the Boston Bruins were in danger of a freefall to the bottom of the standings.

Just to review, the basic idea behind win probability models like PythagenPuck is that over the course of a season, the Goals For and Goals Against numbers can be used to derive a team's winning percentage, within a a surprisingly narrow margin of error. For instance, if you only had GF/GA information, you could make a very good stab at projecting what the standings would look like. The w…

OTF Classic

Search This Blog

Endorsements