OTF Classic

Last night's 2-1 loss to San Jose was a classic tale of the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: The Good : Jason Arnott scored his 25th goal of the season from his favorite haunt on the power play, near the faceoff dot to the right of the opposing goaltender. Also, owner David Freeman has clearly been bitten by the hockey bug, as he was stewing over calls (and non-calls) by the officials; it's always good to see an owner get that worked up over what's happening on the ice. Dan Ellis turned in a solid effort as well. He gave his team a chance to win even when perhaps they didn't deserve it. The Bad : More dumb-dumb penalties for the Predators gave San Jose all the momentum in the 2nd period. In the 3rd, Radulov took a senseless tripping penalty after getting frustrated by the officials not calling Craig Rivet for interfering with him; the bottom line is that you have to fight through that stuff and keep working. It seemed like the refs were in the Predators' heads just as...

Tonight's game against San Jose (Free Food Night!) certainly isn't a "must win", but it will be important for the Nashville Predators to keep pace with the Northwest division teams that just keeping plugging away; last night Vancouver should have lost in L.A., but (shockingly!) the Kings blew a late 1-0 lead and let the Canucks escape town with an overtime victory. Dan Ellis gets yet another start in goal for the Predators, and Rich Peverley has been called up from Milwaukee to fill in for David Legwand, who's out for a week with a foot injury. While there hasn't been a formal coronation, it's apparent that Ellis has assumed #1 status, as tonight will mark his 5th start in the last 6 games. Coaches generally prefer to have a clear #1 goaltender heading into the playoffs, and it looks like Ellis is getting his chance to earn that role. Yesterday I took the opportunity to catch about half of San Jose's practice at the Centennial Sportsplex in Nashvil...

Last night's 3-0 loss in San Jose carried much the same stench as Wednesday's defeat in Anaheim. The Predators played forcefully enough in the early going, failed to cash in on scoring chances, and got bitten by critical miscues later on that allowed the Sharks to steal the win. Chris Mason, thank goodness, looked sharper than he has in a couple weeks, but the guys up front have left him no margin for error. Heading into the next game at Los Angeles, perhaps Barry Trotz needs to shuffle the deck, splitting up the usual duos of Jason Arnott/J.P. Dumont and David Legwand/Martin Erat (those four players combined for a mere 6 shots last night). Sometimes that forces players to take a fresh approach and focus on the basics. No matter the case, the Kings game looms terribly large in light of what is now a five-game losing streak. Here are some links I'd recommend for a leisurely Sunday stroll around the hockey world: Joe Pelletier's Legends of Hockey network is always w...

With Detroit and Anaheim pushing their way into the Western Conference Final, it's time to recap the predictions made here a couple weeks back, to see how well they performed: Detroit/San Jose : I picked Detroit (albeit in 7 games), based on an expected advantage of 6-7 shots per game, and strong goaltending from Dominik Hasek. That's pretty close to how things actually turned out, as the Red Wings outshot the Sharks by 7.7 shots per contest and Hasek (despite an exciting trip or two behind the net) generally outplayed Nabokov. All the highlights from Detroit's series clinching win Monday night. Anaheim/Vancouver : This was my lone miss of the second round, as I had called for a Canucks victory, since the Ducks weren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard as of late and faced the outstanding Roberto Luongo in net. While Luongo held up his end of the bargain, the Vancouver defense (ravaged by injury) gave up too many shots, particularly close-range shots, to consistently ...

My final Conference Semifinal preview looks at Detroit vs. San Jose, a clash between squads that have held Cup aspirations all year long. Here's what an interactive analysis of offense vs. defense seems to say about what will happen... For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Red Wings can score : Despite being Mike Babcock's team, these Red Wings still outshoot their opponents more often than not, a trend that goes back well over a decade. Looking at the mix of those shots, the expected shot-total margin comes almost entirely from 40 feet out, so look for Nick Lidstrom and Mathieu Schneider to fire early and often. Evgeni Nabokov has been solid for the Sharks so far, and he'll need to keep up that effort to hold the Detroit down. How the Sharks can score : The Sharks need to rattle Hasek if they're going to keep up with the potent Red Wing attack, as the Dominator is playing like, well, the Dominator right now. With Detroit also doing a g...

Now that the *yawn* thrilling Stars/Canucks series has concluded, it's time to see how well the Shot Quality-driven predictions made here a couple weeks ago held up. Detroit/Calgary : The expectation was that the Red Wings would outshoot the Flames significantly, but superior goaltending by Miikka Kiprusoff would keep the series close and I had Detroit winning in seven (having it end in the 2nd overtime of Game Six is pretty close, ain't it?). That turned out fairly close to the actual result, although Detroit shut down Calgary's offense (both in terms of shot totals and goals yielded) even more than anticipated. Anaheim/Minnesota : OK, here's the one for the dumpster - I picked the Wild in five games, based on the red-hot goaltending of Nicklas Backstrom . Backstrom pretty much kept up his end of the bargain, keeping the Ducks down to the tune of 2.20 goals per game, but it was the Wild offense that failed to show up. Overall shot totals were expected to be dead-even ...

It's all on the line tonight for Nashville, so here's some of my scattered thoughts as Game Five proceeds... 1st Period : The Preds come out hitting everything in sight, some of it pretty reckless, and eventually get whistled on a cheap Boarding call to Peter Forsberg (he was side-by-side with a Shark and hit him shoulder-to-shoulder). Apparently Nashville coach Barry Trotz has been reading my posts on the message boards , as he gets Paul Kariya out there for a bit of shorthanded duty. He craftily sneaks PK out there late in the penalty kill, where his speed could potentially catch a defenseman flat-footed and lead to an offensive chance. The Sharks take a 1-0 lead on a great effort by Clowe to tap in a rebound, but by and large things don't look so bad. Tomas Vokoun looks very sharp. During the intermission, Terry Crisp diagrams the exact play I had been thinking about earlier - Alexander Radulov dropped a pass to Shea Weber for a point shot, and Weber buried it straight i...

In my humble opinion, part of the business-related challenges that the Nashville Predators have faced this year have resulted from a decidedly lame marketing effort. Billboards around the city show drivers-license style photos of the players which such thrilling phrases as "I live for the save," or "I live for speed." *yawn* It's playoff time, and the Preds need a simpler, more straightforward message not just to energize the sports fans of Nashville, but as a response to their many critics around the hockey world: For the columnists who would rather see them run out of the league For the team officials who go into tirades over perceived slights For all the Canadian media who deride Jordin Tootoo , but celebrated Tie Domi when he played for the Maple Leafs For San Jose coach Ron Wilson, who moaned that " I don't know when he'll [Jonathan Cheechoo] play, hopefully he'll be able to come back this playoff," but started Cheechoo in Game Tw...

...scrambling at the last minute but still landing a babysitter so Mrs. Forechecker and I can attend tonight's Game Two between San Jose and Nashville. Will Cheechoo play? Will the Forsberg/Radulov duo continue to create havoc? Will Barry Trotz put Zidlicky on the ice if the game goes to overtime again? Who knows, but it should be a doozy tonight.

Our first playoff preview digs into the eagerly awaited #4 vs. #5 matchup in the West, between the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks. Last year, these two teams met in the first round and the Sharks dispatched the Preds in five games, largely attributed to two factors; the first being Nashville's inability to stay out the penalty box, and secondly, the advantage the Sharks had at the center position. Since that time, the Predators have upgraded significantly at the center spot (a couple guys named Arnott and Forsberg come to mind), and they've done a better job at staying on the positive side of the special-teams equation as well. Both teams have ranked among the NHL elite all season long, and are slotted 1st and 3rd in mc79hockey's Adjusted Goal Differential . But what does my analysis say about how these two teams match up? For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How Nashville can score : The Predators' strength seems to be in perimeter s...

Over at Kukla's Korner, Paul has put out the call for hockey website suggestions , and from the swelling list I've found a new addition for the blogroll: From Behind the Mask , an informed and amusing Sharks blog...

So much for the thinking that the salary cap would prohibit teams from making trades during the season, eh? Yet again, NHL general managers have thrilled fans across the continent today with their Bacchanalian festival of talent-swapping that, for roughly half the league, provides a fresh optimism for the stretch drive not unlike when teams break training camp at the start of the season. Obviously, the volume of analysis and coverage is immense, and there are many spots along the blogroll at right where you can get in-depth, comprehensive breakdowns for all the trades (for starters, consult Spector , Mirtle , Kukla , and just click your way around). For the moment, I thought I'd take a look at things from the perspective of the Nashville Predators, and how the deadline deals affect their standing vis-a-vis their rivals in the Western Conference... DETROIT: While the acquisition of Todd Bertuzzi raised the most eyebrows, the Jason Williams-for-Kyle Calder trade is what should re...

As we consider possible player moves leading up to the trade deadline, I thought I'd take a look at how some of these prospective pickups have performed against likely playoff opponents. In other words, given a slate of veteran forwards who have been cited in various trade rumors, how many points per game are they racking up against top teams, as opposed to the rest of the league? Such results might provide some insight that makes them more or less attractive to the "buyers" who hope to contend for a Cup this spring. For this exercise, I'm focusing on the Western Conference. I took a sample of six forwards from teams currently out of the playoffs, who are going to be unrestricted free agents after the season. I then went through their current statistics, and game-by-game logs, to determine their points-per-game production against each of the current Western Conference playoff teams, leaving the remainder in an "Other" category, representing what they...

There I was, idly clicking my way around the hockey blogosphere, when, like the Bat Signal cast against the cloudy skies of Gotham, I spied a call for help. At the end of a post covering the All-Star Game and how perhaps it might be improved, Ritch from American Hockey Fan had a question... Why not have the best Powerplay in the league face off against the best PK? Who would that be, I wonder? San Jose vs. Montreal, maybe? Perhaps the Forechecker will come to my aid again. Fear not, good netizen - I'm always in need of topical inspiration, so let's take a look... The NHL stat in this area merely covers percentage of opportunities converted. On that front, San Jose has the top power play (25.8%), and Vancouver the top penalty kill (88.4%). There, we have our answer, right? If we did, this would be an awfully short piece, that's for sure. A great source of special teams statistics can be found over at mc79hockey.com , where you can find a breakdown of teams on a 60-minute ba...