OTF Classic

The opening faceoff of the 2008 Stanley Cup Finals is mere hours away, so it's the right time to take a look at how the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins match up in the faceoff circle, and how that might shape the outcome of the series. In yesterday's Globe and Mail, uber-hockey statistician Alan Ryder made the case that the Red Wings will hold a critical advantage in this area, citing the fact that Detroit was #1 in the NHL with a 53% winning rate during the regular season, compared to Pittsburgh's league-worst 46%. Adjust those figures for how they might do specifically against each other, prorate that across 50-60 faceoffs per game, and that does indeed appear to give the Red Wings an extra minute or two of puck possession per game, which, when you're looking for difference-makers between two top teams, could be a decisive factor. What I decided to do was to take a peek inside those overall percentages, and focus on how each of the main faceoff men (Cr...

The Gang That Won't Give Up almost pulled off a storybook upset last night; playing without 3 of their top 4 starting centers (Jason Arnott sick, David Legwand hampered by his foot, Scott Nichol out with a broken thumb) on the road in Detroit, the Predators skaters were simply dominated by the Red Wings, getting outshot 53-20 in regulation. Dan Ellis single-handedly kept Nashville in the game, giving up only a 1st period goal to Valteri Filppula, in what was probably the best goaltending performance in the playoffs so far. Then, with Ellis on the bench in the final minute so Nashville could use an extra attacker, Radek Bonk slipped into the low slot and fired a one-timer past Chris Osgood to tie the game at 1 with 44 seconds left. It was reminiscent of Bonk's tying goal in Montreal back in December, when Nashville rallied from a 3-goal deficit late in the 3rd period to pull out a victory. This time, however, there was no happy ending for the Preds as J.P. Dumont threw the p...

This Predators/Red Wings series is shaping up to be a real struggle no matter which team ends up winning; Nashville can claim momentum heading into Game 5, but Detroit has two games at home in what has now become a best-of-three affair, so I don't think there's a significant advantage to either side right now. One area in which the Red Wings are dominating, however, is the faceoff circle, and that's where I'd like to provide more detail than what fans usually see. Overall, Detroit boasts a 130-112 advantage in Faceoff Wins in this series, gaining possession after 53.7% of draws. While that might not seem like a significant advantage, the difference is to be found almost entirely in Detroit's defensive zone: When face-offs take place in the neutral zone or the Predators' defensive zone, it has basically been a 50-50 proposition, but on draws in Detroit's end of the ice, the Red Wings are winning at a 68.4% rate. Establishing possession of the puck after a ...

Last night's 5-3 win over the Red Wings was a true classic, but for this morning, I wanted to focus on a few points which aren't getting addressed to much extent in the MSM coverage of the game. 1. Niklas Kronwall went head-hunting again, this time leaving his feet and leading with his elbow to nail Radek Bonk in the 2nd period. After all the noise the NHL made last fall about cracking down on head shots, it's amazing to me that Kronwall's been allowed to get away with this twice in three games. The guy's not generally a dirty player, but he's too amped up out there and he isn't going to stop until he gets suspended for it. Apparently, that requires a concussion or worse to be suffered by one of the Preds. It's good to see that Colin Campbell has time to make up rules to address a situation when players are making no contact at all , however. Great priorities, there, guy. 2. Shea Weber looked awful on the Nashville power play, but even worse were th...

The keys are pretty obvious for Nashville to make their stand tonight at the Sommet Center in Game 3 against Detroit: Stop taking dumb-dumb penalties, particularly the ones that wipe out power play opportunities. This was a factor in last year's loss to San Jose as well. Jason Arnott & J.P. Dumont need to dominate, period Jordin Tootoo needs to keep up the heavy hitting, any scoring chances are a bonus Quit discussing breaks that have gone against the team in the first two games. There isn't a single positive thing that will result from it. Games 1 & 2 have been competitive, and a victory tonight is the first step forward. This team has shown a great deal of determination when facing tough odds before, but this is the playoffs, and the pressure is certainly more intense. Other notes: It doesn't look like Legwand's foot is coming along well , after all. For Detroit, Kirk Maltby's not doing well either.

Short and simple, here are your keys to this afternoon's Game Two: Get the Arnott line away from Datsyuk's. Using Vic Ferrari's magnificent Time On Ice tool , we can see that Arnott spent more than two-thirds of his ice time matched up with the Datsyuk line, with predictably disastrous results. Through changes after the draw and other techniques, Barry Trotz has to get the top Nashville line away from not just Datsyuk & Zetterberg, but the defense duo of Lidstrom & Rafalski if possible. The corollary to this is that the Predators energy line has squared off against the wrong guys from Detroit; having Jordin Tootoo hit a Dallas Drake or Kris Draper isn't going to help; he's got to put the body on more important offensive players in order to disrupt the Red Wings flow. Losing Scott Nichol to a broken thumb is potentially devastating; besides being an elite penalty killer, Nichol was the top faceoff man in the NHL this year. Jason Arnott in particular has...

The Red Wings certainly dominated the scoring opportunities, but the Predators held strong and had every chance to win the game in the 3rd. I'll leave it to sharper eyes to determine whether the go-ahead goal for Detroit should have been whistled offsides, the crappy non-HD feed on FSN didn't give a clear view. Dan Ellis looked very sharp in net, and Jason Arnott in particular looked pretty quick on his skates. I'll follow up with detailed analysis tomorrow morning. More interesting will be to see if anything comes out of Niklas Kronwall's hit on Rich Peverley in the 3rd. As Peverley cleared the puck out the zone, Kronwall pinched in and committed the three sins which supposedly bring a suspension from the league office: 1) He left his feet 2) He nailed Peverley in the head 3) He used his elbow Now, since Peverley got right back up and joined the play, I'm guessing nothing's going to come out of this. The NHL head office has shown a horrible propensity t...

As the Red Wings and Predators prepare to drop the puck for Game One in Detroit tonight, virtually every pundit throughout the hockey world has called for a Red Wings victory, while giving nominal credit to Nashville's pluck and tenacity for simply making the playoffs. Those platitudes are nice, but are there genuine reasons to believe that the Predators can pull off an upset over this year's Presidents Trophy winner? There are indeed... This may well have been Nashville's motto this season... 1. The Red Wings have been in this position before and found themselves bounced out in the first round, most recently in 2006 against the Edmonton Oilers. As a #2 seed in 2003 they lost to Anaheim in the Western Conference quarterfinal, and in 2001 Los Angeles knocked them out in another #2 vs. #7 matchup. Detroit just doesn't play the favorite very well at times. 2. Across eight games between the Preds and Red Wings this year, Detroit outscored Nashville by just a 20-19 ma...

Detroit comes to Nashville night for another key game in the Predators drive for a playoff spot; this isn't a game that one would bank on the Predators winning, but after devastating losses to L.A. and Washington over the last week, there's precious little room for error left. Barry Trotz has challenged his top line of Radulov/Arnott/Dumont to carry the team on their collective backs again, but to be honest, that's difficult when offensive support is few and far between. The lackluster play of late only underscores David Legwand's importance to the team. The key to victory is to come out and simply outwork the Red Wings; no mean feat, to be sure, but desperate teams need to play like their season is on the line (because, duh, IT IS ) against more talented opponents. I don't have time to post a full-scale preview, so I'd recommend checking On the Wings and Pred Joe for their insight. I'll be at the game tonight, however, and should have some thoughts tom...

Some folks may have been checking their Nashville Predators tickets in the first period tonight to make sure they said "Detroit Red Wings" as the opponent, as in the early going Detroit looked like anything but the team that's sacked & pillaged their way through the NHL. On their first shift, Jason Arnott, J.P. Dumont and Alexander Radulov out-muscled and out-hustled the Wings to put Nashville up 1-0 just 2:25 in. Dumont fed the puck off the boards to Arnott, who, while being checked, threw a shot on net. Radulov, who had just crossed in front of the crease to sneak in behind Nick Lidstrom, caught the puck before it got to Chris Osgood and pulled it over to the other side of the net before firing it home. A catfish hit the ice during the stoppage in play, and the Sommet Center crowd was on their feet. They were barely done with their celebrating and "Osgood... Osgood... Osgood... You Suck!" chants when the Preds scored again to stretch the lead to 2-0. Aft...

The Central Division bloggers have wrapped up their previews of the Detroit Red Wings 2007-8 edition, with Able to Yzerman and Gloveside chipping in their $0.02. Finally, we have a bit of confidence expressed over at A-to-Y: "The Central? It’s done. It’s 24 September and the division’s been locked up already. By now you know that has less to do with the talent in Hockeytown than it does with the complete lack of it throughout the rest of The Division That Gary Built. The Central is garbage..." And this... "The West? That’s ours too, thanks. If not for a fluttering puck from hell last May the eleventh Cuppeth would have runneth overith. Zero chance Hasek would have lost to Ottawa. And the Wings have improved..." That's what we want to see, some moxie! Again, I'll chip in with the Nashville Predators preview next Monday.

Our Central Division bloggers roundtable of NHL previews continues today with the Detroit Red Wings, covered by the blogs mentioned below. I'll have the Nashville Predators preview in this space next Monday. Behind The Jersey : Christy takes a look at the changes in personnel from last season, with the Wings shedding "deadweights" Robert Lang and Kyle Calder up front, and of course Mathieu Schneider on the blue line. Those three are basically being replaced by Brian Rafalski, Dallas Drake, and a younger player who gets on opportunity, which should keep the Wings typically talented on defense, with a bit more grit up front. The biggest risk to team success is going to be the health of Dominik Hasek, and whether he can sustain Detroit through the long regular season and remain in condition for a playoff drive. Gorilla Crouch : Dave ponders some of the interesting questions heading into the new season, such as whether Johan Franzen can develop into...

This has got to be one of the funniest things I've seen all season. Tonight, the Red Wings burst out with a huge 5-0 win in Anaheim to take a 2-1 series lead. Dominik Hasek turned aside 29 shots (some very dangerous) for the shutout, and Tomas Holmstrom scored twice and added an assist after a nasty double-team hit from behind that should bring at least one suspension from the NHL office. Nick Lidstrom played half the game spectacularly and added two assists, and multiple other players chipped in for a landslide Detroit victory. But the three stars of the game, as chosen by the media? 1. Tomas Holmstrom, DET 2. Valterri Filppula (1goal, 1 assist), DET 3. Todd Marchant???, ANA Let's see, Marchant was a -1, and posted no shots in 16:36 of ice time. Maybe the fact that he didn't take a penalty made him stand out relative to his teammates. How anybody can look at that game and give the 3rd star to any Duck, especially one who had no impact on the game, is an absolute joke...

The battle for the Clarence Campbell Bowl has come down to the top two seeds in the West, Detroit and Anaheim. I've cranked out the numbers, so let's see who will make it to the Stanley Cup Finals... How the Red Wings can score : The story with Detroit, as always, is a reliable shooting advantage - the projection is for them to outshoot the Ducks by roughly seven shots per game. Unlike many other matchups, however, these extra shots are coming from close range, medium range, and long range; they're not just taking harmless tosses at the net and hoping for the best. They'll need every shot they get, as J.S. Giguere has been his usual solid self during these playoffs, with a .952 save percentage entering the series, alongside his net-mate Ilja Bryzgalov's .929 mark. How the Ducks can score : The projections here show that Anaheim's shooting percentage from various ranges is very close to Detroit's, and unless that changes, overcoming the gap in total number o...

With Detroit and Anaheim pushing their way into the Western Conference Final, it's time to recap the predictions made here a couple weeks back, to see how well they performed: Detroit/San Jose : I picked Detroit (albeit in 7 games), based on an expected advantage of 6-7 shots per game, and strong goaltending from Dominik Hasek. That's pretty close to how things actually turned out, as the Red Wings outshot the Sharks by 7.7 shots per contest and Hasek (despite an exciting trip or two behind the net) generally outplayed Nabokov. All the highlights from Detroit's series clinching win Monday night. Anaheim/Vancouver : This was my lone miss of the second round, as I had called for a Canucks victory, since the Ducks weren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard as of late and faced the outstanding Roberto Luongo in net. While Luongo held up his end of the bargain, the Vancouver defense (ravaged by injury) gave up too many shots, particularly close-range shots, to consistently ...

My final Conference Semifinal preview looks at Detroit vs. San Jose, a clash between squads that have held Cup aspirations all year long. Here's what an interactive analysis of offense vs. defense seems to say about what will happen... For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Red Wings can score : Despite being Mike Babcock's team, these Red Wings still outshoot their opponents more often than not, a trend that goes back well over a decade. Looking at the mix of those shots, the expected shot-total margin comes almost entirely from 40 feet out, so look for Nick Lidstrom and Mathieu Schneider to fire early and often. Evgeni Nabokov has been solid for the Sharks so far, and he'll need to keep up that effort to hold the Detroit down. How the Sharks can score : The Sharks need to rattle Hasek if they're going to keep up with the potent Red Wing attack, as the Dominator is playing like, well, the Dominator right now. With Detroit also doing a g...

Now that the *yawn* thrilling Stars/Canucks series has concluded, it's time to see how well the Shot Quality-driven predictions made here a couple weeks ago held up. Detroit/Calgary : The expectation was that the Red Wings would outshoot the Flames significantly, but superior goaltending by Miikka Kiprusoff would keep the series close and I had Detroit winning in seven (having it end in the 2nd overtime of Game Six is pretty close, ain't it?). That turned out fairly close to the actual result, although Detroit shut down Calgary's offense (both in terms of shot totals and goals yielded) even more than anticipated. Anaheim/Minnesota : OK, here's the one for the dumpster - I picked the Wild in five games, based on the red-hot goaltending of Nicklas Backstrom . Backstrom pretty much kept up his end of the bargain, keeping the Ducks down to the tune of 2.20 goals per game, but it was the Wild offense that failed to show up. Overall shot totals were expected to be dead-even ...

Two of the most balanced teams in the Western Conference meet up tonight in Game 1 between the Detroit Red Wings and Calgary Flames. Each team has top-notch scorers up front (Jarome Iginla/Pavel Datsyuk), elite defenders along the blue line (Dion Phaneuf/Nicklas Lidstrom) and potentially game-stealing goalies behind them (Miikka Kiprusoff/Dominik Hasek). Up front I'll tell you I think this is the most intriguing matchup in the NHL so far, but here's what my spin on the numbers says about who'll come out on top: For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Red Wings can score : Overall, the Red Wings (as has usually been the case for the last 15 years) put loads of shots on net, particularly from 40 feet out, which isn't surprising with the likes of Lidstrom and Mathieu Schneider back there. The Flames tend to give up more of those shots as well, so look for the Detroit D to fire away early and often, and bank on Tomas Holmstrom, Kyle Calder an...

The Nashville/Detroit rivalry has gotten pretty competitive in recent years, but it may just have taken a turn that will escalate it to the level of Avs/Wings in the late 1990's. Just as Claude Lemieux's cheap shot on Kris Draper sparked a feud , it appears that the Wings have drawn first blood in a brand new war... Before tonight's game against the Blackhawks, Nashville center Scott Nichol (returning to the lineup after missing 11 games with a broken thumb suffered against Detroit) shared the following with Predators color man Terry Crisp: We've got a little guy at home, three-and-a-half years old, and he's a big hockey fan. I don't get a chance to take him skating too often, and when I had my broken thumb I'm like, "hey, do you wanna go skating with Daddy?" And he's like, "Daddy, I can't, I broke my thumb!" I'm like "who broke your thumb, who broke your thumb?" "Detroit Red Wings..."

While working on a piece about the 10th anniversary of the great Colorado/Detroit game at Joe Louis Arena, I caught myself reflecting on some of the great games I've had the fortune of seeing in Detroit during the 1990's, through a variety of means. Then another thing came to mind - when I'm in attendance, the Red Wings win. I'm on a huge personal winning streak here, so perhaps the Red Wings front office would want to bolster their chances during the upcoming playoffs and make sure I'm in the house for those critical games? I can make myself available... June 4, 1995 : Detroit takes Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals from Chicago, 3-2 (although the Hawks put one of the goalpost as the final horn sounds). Wow, has it been that long since the Blackhawks achieved anything? Ticket courtesy of a college buddy who had a spare. October 13, 1995 : The Wings pummel the Edmonton Oilers in their home opener, 9-0. After the painful Finals sweep against New Jersey...