OTF Classic

Just a few notes as the Predators head into Calgary this evening (8:30 Central start, only TV in Nashville is Center Ice coverage): 1. Dan Ellis gets the start in goal ; again, this looks like a clear indication of #1 status. No word about any other lineup changes. 2. There will be no suspensions for any of the parties involved in last night's nonsense at the end of the 6-2 beatdown by the Canucks. My take on the whole fracas can be found towards the end of my coverage of that game. 3. For a preview of the game from the Calgary perspective, check out Five Hole Fanatics, a Flaming great blog . There's also the boys at Battle of Alberta , with their pregame piece. Obviously, the Preds need to come out with a tighter defensive effort tonight. Chicago, Phoenix and Columbus haven't quite given up the fight yet, and there's no time to allow Colorado, Calgary, Minnesota or Vancouver to pull ahead of Nashville and catch up later. Perhap's it's time to dress Za...

Heading into Tuesday night's tilt at Calgary the Nashville Predators have seemingly righted their ship, having won twice at home over Atlanta and Florida before heading out for an extended five-game road trip. The Flames (5-3-3) have been playing mostly competitive hockey of late, balancing an amazing comeback win over Minnesota last week against a 4-1 loss to San Jose two nights before. In their previous meeting this season, the Flames toasted the Predators 7-4 in Nashville, breaking open a 4-4 tie with a dominating third period. For those of you out celebrating Devil's Night , here's the detailed recap.... Goaltenders: Chris Mason for Nashville vs. the newly-signed Miikka Kiprusoff for Calgary Period The First: Continuing a trend seen against Florida, Martin Erat starts on left wing next to Jason Arnott & J.P. Dumont. Whatever it takes to get him rolling... At the 18:12 mark David Legwand chases down a sloppily-played puck by Calgary that leads to a brea...

As the playoff action really starts to heat up here in the second round, potential Conn Smythe Trophy winners for playoff MVP are already being bandied about. Before we get too carried away with what the weeks ahead might hold, however, let's pause for a moment and consider the candidates for the Anti-Conn Smythe Trophy - dedicated to those prominent players who suited up for the bright lights of playoff action and promptly disappeared from significance. For those top-dollar superstars who are already rounding into mid-summer golfing form, this award is for you. The nominees are... Alexei Yashin, New York Islanders Regular Season : 18 goals, 32 assists +6 Plus/Minus, Salary $7.6 million Playoffs : 5 games, 0 points, 7 shots with 11:45 TOI/game Early in the season, it appeared that Islanders coach Ted Nolan had lit a fire inside the perrenially underperforming Russian center, but by the end of the series with Buffalo, New York fans were treated to the same old story, with Yashin sh...

Now that the *yawn* thrilling Stars/Canucks series has concluded, it's time to see how well the Shot Quality-driven predictions made here a couple weeks ago held up. Detroit/Calgary : The expectation was that the Red Wings would outshoot the Flames significantly, but superior goaltending by Miikka Kiprusoff would keep the series close and I had Detroit winning in seven (having it end in the 2nd overtime of Game Six is pretty close, ain't it?). That turned out fairly close to the actual result, although Detroit shut down Calgary's offense (both in terms of shot totals and goals yielded) even more than anticipated. Anaheim/Minnesota : OK, here's the one for the dumpster - I picked the Wild in five games, based on the red-hot goaltending of Nicklas Backstrom . Backstrom pretty much kept up his end of the bargain, keeping the Ducks down to the tune of 2.20 goals per game, but it was the Wild offense that failed to show up. Overall shot totals were expected to be dead-even ...

Two of the most balanced teams in the Western Conference meet up tonight in Game 1 between the Detroit Red Wings and Calgary Flames. Each team has top-notch scorers up front (Jarome Iginla/Pavel Datsyuk), elite defenders along the blue line (Dion Phaneuf/Nicklas Lidstrom) and potentially game-stealing goalies behind them (Miikka Kiprusoff/Dominik Hasek). Up front I'll tell you I think this is the most intriguing matchup in the NHL so far, but here's what my spin on the numbers says about who'll come out on top: For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post. How the Red Wings can score : Overall, the Red Wings (as has usually been the case for the last 15 years) put loads of shots on net, particularly from 40 feet out, which isn't surprising with the likes of Lidstrom and Mathieu Schneider back there. The Flames tend to give up more of those shots as well, so look for the Detroit D to fire away early and often, and bank on Tomas Holmstrom, Kyle Calder an...

So much for the thinking that the salary cap would prohibit teams from making trades during the season, eh? Yet again, NHL general managers have thrilled fans across the continent today with their Bacchanalian festival of talent-swapping that, for roughly half the league, provides a fresh optimism for the stretch drive not unlike when teams break training camp at the start of the season. Obviously, the volume of analysis and coverage is immense, and there are many spots along the blogroll at right where you can get in-depth, comprehensive breakdowns for all the trades (for starters, consult Spector , Mirtle , Kukla , and just click your way around). For the moment, I thought I'd take a look at things from the perspective of the Nashville Predators, and how the deadline deals affect their standing vis-a-vis their rivals in the Western Conference... DETROIT: While the acquisition of Todd Bertuzzi raised the most eyebrows, the Jason Williams-for-Kyle Calder trade is what should re...

As we consider possible player moves leading up to the trade deadline, I thought I'd take a look at how some of these prospective pickups have performed against likely playoff opponents. In other words, given a slate of veteran forwards who have been cited in various trade rumors, how many points per game are they racking up against top teams, as opposed to the rest of the league? Such results might provide some insight that makes them more or less attractive to the "buyers" who hope to contend for a Cup this spring. For this exercise, I'm focusing on the Western Conference. I took a sample of six forwards from teams currently out of the playoffs, who are going to be unrestricted free agents after the season. I then went through their current statistics, and game-by-game logs, to determine their points-per-game production against each of the current Western Conference playoff teams, leaving the remainder in an "Other" category, representing what they...

Due to popular demand (OK, one email someone sent me), I thought I'd expand on my recent article covering the Atlanta and New Jersey offensive trends, and go through all 30 NHL teams, covering both offense and defense in terms of generating (and preventing) shots, measured by quantity and quality. By using Shots For, Shots Against, and Shot Quality to come up with Expected Goals For and Against, we are effectively isolating team play from the effects of stellar or subpar goaltending. Where there's a significantly wide and persistent gap between those two values, we start to consider whether it's the goalie's fault (in a defensive slide), or a run against a series of superior opposing goalies (for an offensive drought), etc. Today we'll begin with the Northwest Division, that morass of mediocrity that currently shows all five teams within a mere four points in the standings. Will things stay this close over the next few months, or will a team or two start to take the...