OTF Classic

"Defense Wins Championships." We've all heard this tired cliche countless times, but is there any way to quantify if, and to what extent, this is really the case? If we take a look at the Winning Percentage for each NHL team, and compare that with their Goals For/Game numbers, we find a relatively strong correlation, 0.626*, and if we exclude points earned by teams during shootouts (focusing only on regular play, which is when Goals For and Goals Against figures are determined), that correlation grows even stronger, coming in at 0.653. Clearly, teams that score tend to win. What about defense, however? That's where the difference really appears. Taking each team's Goals Against/Game and running a correlation against their winning percentage, we come up with a very strong -0.825 (meaning that as GA goes down, Win % goes up). Make the same adjustment to remove points from shootout wins, and the value becomes modestly stronger at -0.832. Thus, while goal-scoring brin...

Found on Kukla's Korner , there's an article by Michael Farber over at SI.com discussing the prevalence of blocked shots. Great shot-blocking is definitely an underappreciated art form , and while there are some nice anecdotes in Farber's piece, I was left wondering - other than his impressions, do we really have any evidence that shot-blocking is on the rise? I took a look through the play-by-play files for this year (up through Sunday night) and last, and found that at indeed, we've seen about a 5% increase in blocked shots per game since last season: Year EV PP SH Total 2005-06 18.47 0.67 6.80 25.94 2006-07 20.48 0.58 6.11 27.17 Blocked Shots per game (both teams), broken down by situation. Interestingly, we've seen a decline in the number of Shorthanded blocks, and a significant jump in the number at Even Strength. I'll have to dig through the pre-lockout files to see if a longer-term trend is in the works...

Last week I dug into the offensive end of NHL shootouts, so now we need to give the goaltenders their due. As we consider goaltender success during the shootout, a significant aspect to contend with is the quantity of Missed Shots (roughly one out of eight shootout attempts misses the net entirely). Within the table below, I'm including them in a "Stop Pct.", since by definition, Missed Shots aren't included in a goaltender's regular save percentage. When it comes to the shootout, however, I'm inclined to give the netminder some credit for forcing the shooter into an untenable option. So let's get to the results, including the 2005-06 season, and this year up through the games of February 4: Top 10 SO Goalies by Stop Pct. Goaltender SO Attempts SO Goals Saves Missed Stop Pct. Marc Denis, TBL 32 5 24 3 .844 Kari Lehtonen, ATL 39 7 28 4 .821 Henrik Lundqvist, NYR 63 12 40 11 .810 Rick DiPietro, NYI 67 16 48 3 .761 Tim Thomas, BOS 54 13 39 2 .759 Pascal LeCla...

There I was, idly clicking my way around the hockey blogosphere, when, like the Bat Signal cast against the cloudy skies of Gotham, I spied a call for help. At the end of a post covering the All-Star Game and how perhaps it might be improved, Ritch from American Hockey Fan had a question... Why not have the best Powerplay in the league face off against the best PK? Who would that be, I wonder? San Jose vs. Montreal, maybe? Perhaps the Forechecker will come to my aid again. Fear not, good netizen - I'm always in need of topical inspiration, so let's take a look... The NHL stat in this area merely covers percentage of opportunities converted. On that front, San Jose has the top power play (25.8%), and Vancouver the top penalty kill (88.4%). There, we have our answer, right? If we did, this would be an awfully short piece, that's for sure. A great source of special teams statistics can be found over at mc79hockey.com , where you can find a breakdown of teams on a 60-minute ba...

Last Friday I touched on the leaders in the NHL Central Division, Nashville and Detroit, but now let's catch up with the rest of the pack. Again, we're looking at trend lines reflecting Actual (red) vs. Expected (blue) Goals on the offensive and defensive side. In general I've tried to keep the preceding graphs relatively free of "visual commentary", but since each of these teams have changed their head coaches already this year, I've put indicators in reflecting those milestones. So let's meet our contestants... ST. LOUIS BLUES : The Blues have been on fire since Andy Murray took the helm, going 12-4-4 in eighteen games. Looking at the Expected Goals For trendline doesn't seem to indicate any huge change in offensive approach, but the steady increase in Actual Goals For seems to say that something is indeed in the works in terms of shot execution. We'll know the answer to that shortly after the All-Star break, in terms of whether that hot streak o...

Continuing our tour through the various NHL divisions, it's time to focus on the Central Division, which for the last several years has served as Detroit's personal happy place (five straight 1st-place finishes), but this year is in danger of going Country, as the Nashville Predators currently stand at the top of the overall NHL standings, with the Red Wings four points back. Both teams have flown under the hockey world's radar in light of Buffalo and Anaheim's hot starts, but are legitimate President's Trophy contenders. The rest of the division has generally played the role of the Washington Generals for Detroit and Nashville over the last couple years, but after recent coaching changes, there is at least hope for competitive balance to return to what was once the close-knit Norris Division of old. Unfortunately I don't have time today to post graphs for all five teams in the division, so I'll focus on Nashville & Detroit for now. NASHVILLE PREDATORS ...

The Southeast Division is home to the last two Stanley Cup champions (I know it's true, but it still seems wierd to write that), but this season we've seen a new power emerge in the Atlanta Thrashers. While Atlanta chases down their first division title and/or playoff berth, and Carolina has steadily lingered a few points back, the only real movement of late has seen the Tampa Bay Lightning pull ahead of the Washington Capitals for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The other model of consistency has been the Florida Panthers, slinking around the division basement due in part to a league-low five road victories. But underneath their positions in the standings, how have the overall offenses and defenses in the Southeast fared so far this year? Let's break them down team-by-team, focusing on the rolling 10-game averages for Actual (in red) and Expected Goals (in blue), both For and Against. As a guideline, NHL teams on the whole are averaging 2.97 goals...

Due to popular demand (OK, one email someone sent me), I thought I'd expand on my recent article covering the Atlanta and New Jersey offensive trends, and go through all 30 NHL teams, covering both offense and defense in terms of generating (and preventing) shots, measured by quantity and quality. By using Shots For, Shots Against, and Shot Quality to come up with Expected Goals For and Against, we are effectively isolating team play from the effects of stellar or subpar goaltending. Where there's a significantly wide and persistent gap between those two values, we start to consider whether it's the goalie's fault (in a defensive slide), or a run against a series of superior opposing goalies (for an offensive drought), etc. Today we'll begin with the Northwest Division, that morass of mediocrity that currently shows all five teams within a mere four points in the standings. Will things stay this close over the next few months, or will a team or two start to take the...