OTF Classic

The opening faceoff of the 2008 Stanley Cup Finals is mere hours away, so it's the right time to take a look at how the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins match up in the faceoff circle, and how that might shape the outcome of the series. In yesterday's Globe and Mail, uber-hockey statistician Alan Ryder made the case that the Red Wings will hold a critical advantage in this area, citing the fact that Detroit was #1 in the NHL with a 53% winning rate during the regular season, compared to Pittsburgh's league-worst 46%. Adjust those figures for how they might do specifically against each other, prorate that across 50-60 faceoffs per game, and that does indeed appear to give the Red Wings an extra minute or two of puck possession per game, which, when you're looking for difference-makers between two top teams, could be a decisive factor. What I decided to do was to take a peek inside those overall percentages, and focus on how each of the main faceoff men (Cr...

This Predators/Red Wings series is shaping up to be a real struggle no matter which team ends up winning; Nashville can claim momentum heading into Game 5, but Detroit has two games at home in what has now become a best-of-three affair, so I don't think there's a significant advantage to either side right now. One area in which the Red Wings are dominating, however, is the faceoff circle, and that's where I'd like to provide more detail than what fans usually see. Overall, Detroit boasts a 130-112 advantage in Faceoff Wins in this series, gaining possession after 53.7% of draws. While that might not seem like a significant advantage, the difference is to be found almost entirely in Detroit's defensive zone: When face-offs take place in the neutral zone or the Predators' defensive zone, it has basically been a 50-50 proposition, but on draws in Detroit's end of the ice, the Red Wings are winning at a 68.4% rate. Establishing possession of the puck after a ...

Today's feature comes via the prompting of David, a reader of this blog who noted to me in an email that "it seems that teams on the power play seem to win face-offs most of the time. I figured it was just one of those weird perception things... that really had no merit." David then showed some numbers from selected teams that seemed to indicate a trend, so I went ahead and pulled all the data for this season up through the games of February 13, and came up with the following results for teams depending on the situation (even strength, power play, shorthanded): Faceoff Percentages By Team & Situation Team EV % PP % SH % Tot % Anaheim Ducks 51.09% 50.97% 42.45% 49.68% Atlanta Thrashers 52.74% 58.81% 40.92% 51.87% Boston Bruins 49.14% 54.99% 38.19% 48.33% Buffalo Sabres 45.99% 61.76% 42.52% 47.71% Calgary Flames 50.33% 54.57% 41.96% 49.71% Carolina Hurricanes 50.08% 58.02% 46.97% 50.92% Chicago Blackhawks 51.74% 60.68% 46.41% 52.41% Colorado Avalanche 47.80% ...

There's nothing like the pivotal moments late in an NHL game, where each rush up ice is met with hope and dread, depending on the rooting interest of the fans watching. Sometimes, the deciding strike comes swiftly after a faceoff win, and what I'd like to look at today is which players help produce or prevent such chances. Buffalo's second goal in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals was a perfect example - a clean win in the offensive zone by Jason Pominville allowed Toni Lydman to pick up the puck and skate right in for a wrister that scored to tie the game. The winning goal in Game Two for the Senators also showed what can happen. Jason Spezza drew a puck right back to Joseph Corvo, whose quick shot put the Buffalo Sabres into an imposing 2-0 hole as the series heads to Ottawa. On average, a quick shot after the faceoff occured 10.2% of the time during the regular season (see criteria at bottom). Check out Joe Corvo's double-OT winner from Game Two of the ECF Wi...

Thanks to emailer Chris for another article inspiration: I was telling my friend that hockey is one of the few [the only?] sports where the rules state that the home team gets an advantage -- line changes and face-offs. Since the home team gets to put their stick down last for a faceoff, does the home ice advantage help, hurt, or make no difference to the "good face off" men? Besides hockey, certainly baseball rules give the home team an advantage by batting last, but outside of that, you're right, most sports do try and stay neutral in terms of home & visitor play. To answer Chris's question, I used the Game Summary files from the 2005-06 season, as well as the first 730 games of this season (give or take a couple games) to determine overall faceoff win percentages for the home and visiting team, broken down by location on the ice: FO Win% 2005-06 Vis Home Offensive 49.29% 52.41% Defensive 47.59% 50.71% Neutral 49.95% 50.05% Total 49.00% 51.00% FO Win%, Current S...

As a followup to yesterday's article on offensive-zone faceoffs, here's a look at the team-by-team numbers. Again, the criteria here is an offensive zone faceoff that results in a shot within 5 seconds of the puck drop. Montreal Canadiens - 12.59% Edmonton Oilers - 12.45% Ottawa Senators - 11.85% St. Louis Blues - 11.23% Carolina Hurricanes - 10.77% New York Islanders - 10.35% Columbus Blue Jackets - 10.28% Boston Bruins - 10.10% Minnesota Wild - 9.96% Toronto Maple Leafs - 9.96% Colorado Avalanche - 9.93% Florida Panthers - 9.88% Calgary Flames - 9.62% Los Angeles Kings - 9.49% Washington Capitals - 9.48% Detroit Red Wings - 9.31% LEAGUE AVERAGE - 9.09% Dallas Stars - 8.79% New York Rangers - 8.71% Vancouver Canucks - 8.57% Buffalo Sabres - 8.27% Philadelphia Flyers - 8.23% Nashville Predators - 7.52% Tampa Bay Lightning - 7.31% Pittsburgh Penguins - 7.22% New Jersey Devils - 7.18% San Jose Sharks - 7.02% Phoenix Coyotes - 6.89% Anaheim Ducks - 6.77% Atlanta Thrashers - 6.44% ...

It's late in the game, you need a goal, and there's a key faceoff coming up in the offensive zone. You need to get a shot on net right away, but who are you going to send out to take the draw? Common wisdom would suggest running down the player statistics by Face Off Win Percentage, and sending your best player out there, assuming he's not winded from a recent shift. Chances are, however, that the common wisdom is wrong. I've recently gathered detailed game information from the entire 2005-2006 regular season, and analysed the results of over 45,000 non-neutral zone faceoffs that took place across more than 1,200 games. Based on when a faceoff in either end of the ice resulted in the offensive team getting a shot within 5 seconds of the drop of the puck, I've ranked the players as to how often offensive zone faceoffs result in immediate shots (given a minimum of 100 such draws). On average, a shot (defined as either a goal, save, blocked shot, or missed shot) took p...