For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.
How Ottawa can score: Shots, shots, and more shots seems to be the story here, as Ottawa takes a lot of shots, and the Pens give up a bunch as well, a dangerous combination. Much like the San Jose Sharks, expect the Sens to generate most of their goals from the 10-29 foot range. Although Marc-Andre Fleury's goaltending has been excellent leading into the playoffs (note how Sht % Factor is less than 1 across the board), the Pittsburgh defense yields plenty of shots from the 10-19 foot range, where you can expect about 20% to score. Unless the Penguins do a better job keeping Ottawa shooters outside the prime scoring areas, even Fleury's magnificent work won't keep the Senators from piling up the goals.
How Pittsburgh can score: The Ottawa defense will give up more shots than average as well, so expect plenty of up-and-down action in this series. However, the Senators goaltending appears to outperform Pittsburgh's in almost all aspects. The key here for the young Penguins is to utilize their collective talents and capitalize on the short-range opportunities that should present themselves.
Summary: The Expected Goals values of 3.61 for Ottawa and 3.10 for Pittsburgh paint a bleak picture for the young guns, especially since Ottawa has home-ice advantage.
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