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Monday, April 30, 2007

Celebrating Achievements in Underachievement

As the playoff action really starts to heat up here in the second round, potential Conn Smythe Trophy winners for playoff MVP are already being bandied about. Before we get too carried away with what the weeks ahead might hold, however, let's pause for a moment and consider the candidates for the Anti-Conn Smythe Trophy - dedicated to those prominent players who suited up for the bright lights of playoff action and promptly disappeared from significance. For those top-dollar superstars who are already rounding into mid-summer golfing form, this award is for you. The nominees are...

Alexei Yashin, New York Islanders
Regular Season: 18 goals, 32 assists +6 Plus/Minus, Salary $7.6 million
Playoffs: 5 games, 0 points, 7 shots with 11:45 TOI/game
Early in the season, it appeared that Islanders coach Ted Nolan had lit a fire inside the perrenially underperforming Russian center, but by the end of the series with Buffalo, New York fans were treated to the same old story, with Yashin shirking responsibility for a lack of results. Now we hear that he's ready to give up the captaincy of the team. He didn't just disappear during the playoffs, it seems like he wanted to disappear as well.

Marian Hossa, Atlanta Thrashers
Regular Season: 43 goals, 57 assists, +18 Plus/Minus, Salary $6 million
Playoffs: 4 games, 0 goals, 1 assist, -6 Plus/Minus, 10 shots with 18:55 TOI/game.
Hossa led the Thrashers to their first division title and playoff berth, generating plenty of excitement for an Atlanta team still trying to establish itself, but once the postseason started, Hossa just got shut down. By the end, the story was nicely summed up by the Falconer over at Thrasher's Talons after the Game Four elimination by the Rangers: "Once again the top regular season line with Hossa and Kovlov was not relevant to the outcome of the game."

Paul Kariya, Nashville Predators
Regular Season: 24 goals, 52 assists, +6 Plus/Minus, Salary $4.5 million
Playoffs: 5 games, 0 goals, 2 assists, -4 Plus/Minus, 10 shots with 19:36 TOI per game.
With all the arena-lease discussion during the course of this year, these playoffs meant more to the success of the Nashville Predators than perhaps any other franchise in the National Hockey League, but when crunch-time came, the first superstar in team history faded into the background.

Kristian Huselius, Calgary Flames
Regular Season: 34 goals, 43 assists, +21 Plus/Minus, Salary $1.4 million
Playoffs: 6 games, 0 goals, 2 assists, -4 Plus/Minus 20 shots with 16:58 TOI/game.
The erstwhile Florida Panther enjoyed a breakout regular season this year, but things turned dramatically for the worse against Detroit. After an assist in each of the first two games, his ice time went up, but the production went down to nothing.

Labels: atlanta thrashers, calgary flames, commentary, nashville predators, new york islanders, stanley cup

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Red Wings vs. Sharks, Second Round Preview

My final Conference Semifinal preview looks at Detroit vs. San Jose, a clash between squads that have held Cup aspirations all year long. Here's what an interactive analysis of offense vs. defense seems to say about what will happen...

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How the Red Wings can score: Despite being Mike Babcock's team, these Red Wings still outshoot their opponents more often than not, a trend that goes back well over a decade. Looking at the mix of those shots, the expected shot-total margin comes almost entirely from 40 feet out, so look for Nick Lidstrom and Mathieu Schneider to fire early and often. Evgeni Nabokov has been solid for the Sharks so far, and he'll need to keep up that effort to hold the Detroit down.

How the Sharks can score: The Sharks need to rattle Hasek if they're going to keep up with the potent Red Wing attack, as the Dominator is playing like, well, the Dominator right now. With Detroit also doing a good job limiting the number of shots on net, San Jose will have to make the most of the close-range opportunities that their big, strong forwards tend to generate.

Summary: Expecting Nabokov to outplay Hasek is a tall order on its own, but when you add the expected shooting differential between these teams, that task appears insurmountable. The quality and depth of the Detroit attack will keep the momentum of the game in their favor.

Outside the Numbers: Injuries could pose a big problem for Detroit, as some players start the series on the shelf and others are battling through broken hands. Working in their favor, however, is team composure and leadership - there shouldn't be any Nashville-style parades to the penalty box putting the Sharks' dangerous power play out there for extended periods.

Prediction: Detroit in 7 games.

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Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals are excluded.

Labels: detroit red wings, predictions, san jose sharks

Devils vs. Senators, Second Round Preview

We have a classic clash of styles in the New Jersey/Ottawa Eastern Conference Semifinal, between the defense-first Devils and the dynamic Senators. In my humble opinion these matchups make for some of the more entertaining series, but let's see what the numbers tell us about how this will shake out.

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How the Devils can score: There's not much outstanding when it comes to the New Jersey offense - they take an average amount of shots, with a pretty typical distribution in terms of short vs. long range, and the execution in terms of scoring percentages is right around average as well. The Ottawa defense isn't likely to shut them down, but the goaltending has been fairly strong as of late posing a challenge to a Devils offense that doesn't want to get stuck playing from behind.

How the Senators can score: The Senators will be expected to outshoot the Devils by 2-3 shots per game, which may not sound like much, but since that margin comes almost entirely from within 29 feet (sum those three left "Shots For" columns and compare against NJ), that translates to about half a goal per game. The shooting percentages aren't likely to be outstanding, but by creating an extra quality scoring chance per period, the Sens should be able to consistently achieve a decent level of offense.

Summary: While Martin Brodeur is certainly to be lauded for his career achievements, I'm not totally convinced that the Devils have a significant edge in the goaltending department, based on the way these two teams are going. Ray Emery is at the top of his game, and as we've often seen in recent playoffs, it's not unusual to see new stars develop between the pipes. This analysis ends up giving the Senators about a half-goal per game edge (2.24 - 1.77 = 0.47), which is actually the widest gap among these four Conference Semifinal series. I just see the Ottawa offense putting constant pressure on the Devils, and their goaltending playing well enough to give them 4-2, 3-1-type victories.

Outside the Numbers: While stellar goaltending is always desired, it's by no means a guarantee of playoff success. If you look at the top 8 goalies in terms of playoff save percentage, 4 of them lost in the first round (Marty Turco, Miikka Kiprusoff, Johan Hedberg and Niklas Backstrom).

Prediction: Ottawa in 6 games.

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Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals are excluded.

Labels: new jersey devils, ottawa senators, predictions, shot quality, stanley cup

Back in the days of Turk, Baldy, and Boom-Boom...

While pundits are already starting to handicap this year's Conn Smythe Trophy race for playoff MVP, there's a great article over at Legends of Hockey that talks about a truly awesome effort by the Society for International Hockey Research (SIHR) to come up with a list of deserving Conn Smythe honorees for Stanley Cup playoffs prior to 1965, when Jean Beliveau won it with Montreal.

The most interesting find here is that while currently, Patrick Roy stands alone as the only 3-time winner of the Conn Smythe Trophy, the results of this research also recognized Maple Leaf great Ted Kennedy for his efforts in 1945, 1947, and 1948, which would place him alongside Roy in terms of individual postseason achievement. I didn't have NHL Center Ice back then, so I'll take the SIHR's word for it...

Labels: hockey blogs, stanley cup

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Ducks vs. Canucks, Second Round Preview

I'm guessing there won't be too many people in the Eastern time zone staying up to watch the Western Conference Semifinal between Anaheim and Vancouver all the way through - between the late start times and the dominant goaltending, this series could be an insomniac's salvation for the next couple weeks. Be that as it may, let's see what might happen when you throw these teams together...

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How the Ducks can score: The Ducks aren't exactly lighting the scoreboard up these days, and the prospect of facing Robert Luongo doesn't lead one to believe anything's going to change soon. Anaheim does generate a good deal of shots from the 10-19 foot range, where most scoring occurs, but their scoring percentage there is nothing to write home about (.148 vs. a league average of .183).

How the Canucks can score: "Shoot it long, and shoot it strong," should be the Canucks motto - Ducks goaltending may well have an issue with point shots (see the Sht % Factor for 50-59 feet), and fortunately for Vancouver, they happen to take quite a few of those (2nd most among remaining teams after Detroit). Elsewhere, strong goaltending should keep the scorekeeper snoozing for most of the time.

Summary: This one looks to be a defensive struggle, but the Canucks come out ahead at 1.97 to 1.61 Expected Goals per game. Anaheim might end up with a slight edge in terms of total shots, but they're just not converting them into goals like the Canucks. Take a look across the "Sht %" line for each team - this represents a moving average of shooting percentage, and you'll see that Vancouver outperforms Anaheim in almost every area (and considering that they just came off a 7-game series against an amazing performance by Marty Turco, that's saying something). One could make the argument that the Canucks offense is superior to the Ducks right now, and when you add the goaltending component as well, that makes a pretty steep hill for Anaheim to climb.

Outside the Numbers: Will Luongo come down off the emotional high of that first-round series victory and struggle to regain his form against the Ducks? It wouldn't be surprising to see a shaky Game One effort out of the first-time playoff workhorse.

Prediction: Vancouver in six games.

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Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals are excluded.

Labels: anaheim ducks, predictions, shot quality, stanley cup, vancouver canucks

Sabres vs. Rangers, Second Round Preview

The New York State NHL Finals begin tonight, as the Rangers head up to Buffalo, and it's time to focus our predictive powers on the likely outcome of this series. The Sabres have been the hot team all year and their rabid fan base has been waiting for this time ever since their playoff elimination last year, but the Rangers, while mediocre for much of the regular season, turned things on down the stretch and dispatched the Southeast division champs in an impressive first-round sweep. So what the numbers say about how this one will go?

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How the Sabres can score: It seems like Buffalo should get a good number of close-in chances against New York, and the onus will be on Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist to keep things from busting loose. Buffalo is the hottest playoff team remaining in terms of shooting percentage in the prime 10-19 and 20-29 foot ranges, whereas Lundqvist is the hottest goalie at stopping those same shots. To me, this looks like bad news for New York. Take, for example, the Shots Factor line - in total, the Rangers give up 96% of the league average in terms of shots, which seems OK, but if you look at how they're mixed, it looks like they lock down the long-distance shots at the expense of giving up more short-range opportunities (very low values in the 50+ area, higher ones below 19). That plays right into Buffalo's sweet spot.

How the Rangers can score: Execution from close range will be crucial for the Rangers. They're expected to get basically nothing from 40 feet out, and in turn generate the most shots from the 10-19 foot range, although their shooting percentage from that area is the worst among remaining playoff teams. From mid- to long-range New York should outshoot Buffalo, and if they create traffic in front of Ryan Miller perhaps they might make something happen off a screen or rebound.

Summary: The Sabres come in at 2.29 Expected Goals per game against the Rangers 2.01, and while the New York might be expected to outshoot Buffalo 31.45 to 26.05, it's Buffalo's superior close-range sniping that makes the difference.

Outside the Numbers: Team expectations have got to be quite different on each side. In Buffalo, they've been geared towards a Cup run since last spring, while in New York, folks are thrilled they made the playoffs, let alone making it through a round or two. I just see the Sabres as being more motivated here.

Prediction: Buffalo in five games.

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Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals are excluded.

Labels: buffalo sabres, new york rangers, predictions, shot quality, stanley cup

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

How the West Was (in Round) One

Now that the *yawn* thrilling Stars/Canucks series has concluded, it's time to see how well the Shot Quality-driven predictions made here a couple weeks ago held up.

Detroit/Calgary: The expectation was that the Red Wings would outshoot the Flames significantly, but superior goaltending by Miikka Kiprusoff would keep the series close and I had Detroit winning in seven (having it end in the 2nd overtime of Game Six is pretty close, ain't it?). That turned out fairly close to the actual result, although Detroit shut down Calgary's offense (both in terms of shot totals and goals yielded) even more than anticipated.

Anaheim/Minnesota: OK, here's the one for the dumpster - I picked the Wild in five games, based on the red-hot goaltending of Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom pretty much kept up his end of the bargain, keeping the Ducks down to the tune of 2.20 goals per game, but it was the Wild offense that failed to show up. Overall shot totals were expected to be dead-even for both teams, and that indeed turned out to be the case (32.31/32.39 Expected against 29.00/28.80 Actual). What made the difference was outstanding Ducks goaltending (both Bryzgalov and Giguere at well over .920).

Vancouver/Dallas: Goaltending dominated this series, even more so than expected, as Roberto Luongo clamped down on the Stars in the two primary scoring ranges, 10-19 and 20-29 feet. For the Stars, Marty Turco acquited himself admirably, posting three shutouts and topping Luongo's save percentage across the series, .952 against .950. This one was nice as I actually picked the Canucks in seven games, although it seemed like seven weeks.

Nashville/San Jose: While I was pulling for the Preds, the numbers just didn't look good going in, and my pick of the Sharks in 6 looked generous when San Jose actually closed things out in Game Five. Once again, the shot total expectations seemed to be pretty accurate (28.73/26.60 for San Jose, 33.94/32.60 for Nashville), and it looked like Evgeni Nabokov basically shut the Preds down from long range, not allowing any scores from 40+ feet, where Nashville would have expected about 0.6 goals per game. While Tomas Vokoun put in a yeoman's effort in his net (equalling Nabokov's .902 save percentage), the overall goal-scoring margin came in very close to the predicted value (3.74-3.01=0.73 Expected, against 3.20-2.60=0.60 Actual), resulting in a clear-cut advantage for the Sharks.

Once again, the proper team was chosen in three out of four series, so while I may make some minor adjustments to the method, I'll generate something similar for Round Two and start posting those predictions soon.

Labels: anaheim ducks, calgary flames, dallas stars, detroit red wings, minnesota wild, nashville predators, predictions, san jose sharks, shot quality, stanley cup, vancouver canucks

Monday, April 23, 2007

Looking back at Round One in the East

Just before the Conference Quarterfinal series began, I posted some predictions that were based on an application of the Shot Quality metric, basically matching each team's offense with the opposing defense, in terms of shots taken and shooting percentage from various distances. Now it's time to see how well that process worked, and in the days to follow, I'll tweak the process slightly based on the findings here, and post projections for the 2nd round series due to start later this week.

So first let's review the Eastern Conference series one-by-one...

Buffalo/NY Islanders: While the overall numbers came in lower than expected, the difference between the two teams' Expected Goals values (4.37 - 2.91 = 1.46) came in quite close to the Actual Goals (3.25 - 2.00 = 1.25), resulting in an easy victory for the Sabres. My qualitative hunch was that the Islanders' goaltending wouldn't keep up the pace set late in the season, but they actually did acquit themselves rather well, particularly Rick DiPietro, as in New York's Game Two win (32 saves on 34 shots against). I picked the Sabres to win in four, but I'm sure they're happy with the five-game result.

New Jersey/Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay did a much better job of holding the Devils in check than expected, especially if you look at New Jersey's performance in the 10-19 foot range, which is where most goals come from (only 0.60 goals per game, rather than the anticipated 2.77). A combination of solid goaltending and responsible defensive play in their own zone kept the Lightning competitive in their six-game defeat. At the other end of the ice, New Jersey relied on the typically superior Martin Brodeur to hold Tampa Bay below the 2.5 goal/game mark. The one thing that jumps out at me here is how New Jersey was expected to shoot at a .384 clip from 10-19 feet, which seems absurdly high to predict. The idea was that I applied a simple multiplying factor between how one team shot from a given range, and how the opposing goaltending handled such shots compared to the league average. For example, if a goalie gave up 20% more goals in the 10-19 range than the NHL average, I boosted the opponent's shooting percentage by 20% to get the expected value. I may look into methods to provide for diminishing marginal returns there, so that no particular value strays too wide from the sanity range. I picked the Devils to sweep this one, but they ended up needing six games to dispatch the Lightning.

Atlanta/NY Rangers: Well, this went pretty far awry - I had the Thrashers winning in seven as the teams were expected to post nearly identical goal totals (2.95 for Atlanta, 2.83 for the Rangers). Instead, it looks like the goaltending took things in opposite directions for both squads. Henrik Lundqvist's .939 save percentage for New York gave them confidence, and Kari Lehtonen's .849 pace in Games One and Three put the Thrashers in a hole they couldn't dig out of.

Ottawa/Pittsburgh: The overall projection for Ottawa came out nearly perfect (expected 3.61 Goals/Game, 3.60 Actual), and my pick of a five-game victory for the Senators indeed came to pass. The Penguins offense just couldn't get on track, as their 22 shots/game figure was the lowest in the Eastern Conference's first round.

Not bad, overall I'd say - 3 out of 4 correct so far. Tuesday I'll post the Western Conference reviews, and start cranking out those looks ahead to Round Two.

Labels: atlanta thrashers, buffalo sabres, new jersey devils, new york islanders, new york rangers, ottawa senators, pittsburgh penguins, predictions, shot quality, stanley cup, tampa bay lightning

Revisiting the Magic 8-Ball

As we pause for breath between the 1st and 2nd round of NHL playoffs (pending Game 7 tonight between Dallas and Vancouver), I wanted to check back on my regular season predictions, and see how things panned out:

Division Winners: I went with the NY Rangers (Atlantic), Ottawa Senators (Northeast), Carolina Hurricanes (Southeast), Nashville Predators (Central), Calgary Flames (Northwest), and Anaheim Ducks (Pacific). Yikes, only 1 for 6 there, and the Hurricanes even failed to make the playoffs. Not off to a good start, I guess...

Regular Season Awards: While the voting-driven ones obviously aren't in yet, there are others that have been decided...

President's Trophy - I went with Carolina (ugh, it went to Buffalo)

Art Ross (overall scoring) - Jaromir Jagr (double-ugh, that went to Sid Crosby)

Maurice Richard (goal scoring) - Jagr again (triple-ugh! Vincent Lecavalier won this)

William Jennings (fewest goals against) - I went with Hasek/Osgood in Detroit, but Backstrom/Fernandez took it for Minnesota

Extra Predictions:

First coach to be fired - I picked Trent Yawney in Chicago, and he didn't make it far, but Ken Hitchcock was the first to walk the plank this season.

Most Improved Team - I picked St. Louis, and they did well, racking up a second-best 24 points more this season than in 2005-6, but the Pittsburgh Penguins improved by 47 to make their first playoff appearance of the Crosby Era.

Most Disappointing Team - I went with Tampa Bay, but I think all would agree that the Philadelphia Flyers laid the biggest stinker this year. They dropped by 45 points in the standings from 2005-6.

Most Improved Player: I expected Alex Tanguay to really break out in Calgary, and while he had a good year, I'll leave it to others to make the call on this one. One candidate might be Andrew Brunette, who took a big step forward and became a point-a-game man for Colorado.

Comeback Player: I thought Sergei Fedorov would prosper in Columbus, but that just didn't happen. Any guesses from the Peanut Gallery as to who sprang back into prominence this year?

"Don't Come Back" Player: I wondered why Jeremy Roenick was still playing, and by now, Coyote fans probably agree. At least I nailed that one...

Coming up soon, I'll revisit the Shot Quality-driven 1st round playoff picks I made a couple weeks back.

Labels: predictions

Friday, April 20, 2007

Game Five Kinda-Live Blogging

It's all on the line tonight for Nashville, so here's some of my scattered thoughts as Game Five proceeds...

1st Period: The Preds come out hitting everything in sight, some of it pretty reckless, and eventually get whistled on a cheap Boarding call to Peter Forsberg (he was side-by-side with a Shark and hit him shoulder-to-shoulder). Apparently Nashville coach Barry Trotz has been reading my posts on the message boards, as he gets Paul Kariya out there for a bit of shorthanded duty. He craftily sneaks PK out there late in the penalty kill, where his speed could potentially catch a defenseman flat-footed and lead to an offensive chance.

The Sharks take a 1-0 lead on a great effort by Clowe to tap in a rebound, but by and large things don't look so bad. Tomas Vokoun looks very sharp.

During the intermission, Terry Crisp diagrams the exact play I had been thinking about earlier - Alexander Radulov dropped a pass to Shea Weber for a point shot, and Weber buried it straight into Nabokov, despite having teammates off to either side of the net. A hard (shot-like) pass wide of the net would have created a much better scoring chance.

2nd Period: Nice goals by Jason Arnott (tapping in a power play rebound) and Vernon Fiddler (deftly kicking a Forsberg pass over to his stick for a high wrister) put the Preds up 2-1, and have the fans believing. The physical game has pretty much disappeared for Nashville, which is probably a good thing as they focus more on their style of play.

2nd Period, 2-1 Nashville, 5:03 remaining: Here comes the very definition of a stupid, undisciplined play, which has led to so much difficulty for Nashville in this series. Scott Nichol, who previously showed good hustle in drawing a penalty earlier in the period, retaliates against Christian Erhoff with a spear to the midsection after getting dumped while coming out from behind the net, and gets whistled for a Major and a Game Misconduct. He did it right in front of the referee, and that was a completely legitimate call. While the local broadcast team thought Erhoff got a minor for diving, they only gave him a penalty for the initial dump of Nichol. Those Sharks do seem to go down like a Jenga puzzle and pop back up into the action*, but it was a stupid play by Nichol. Naturally, karma dictates that the Sharks tie the game at 2-2 during the resulting 3 minute major.

3rd Period: As the clock ticks down, so does the crowd volume. The pressure of the situation starts becoming clear. Arnott feeds J.P. Dumont right in the slot at 11:06, but Nabokov comes out to the top of his crease and shuts down the angle. After mystifying offsetting minors to Ryan Suter and Curtis Brown, Nashville gets a 4-on-3 power play after a trip by Kyle McLaren. All this open ice has to favor the quick-skating Predators.

No dice on the PP for Nashville, and the clock winds down below the seven-minute mark. It's now to the ponit where every rush up the ice carries either hope or trepidation, depending on which way it goes...

4:21 3rd: Patrick Marleau sticks a dagger in Nashville hearts to give San Jose a 3-2 lead, as Joe Thornton feeds him from behind the net, with the Preds leaving the Sharks captain WIDE open just a couple feet off the top of the crease. A horrible breakdown...

The final few minutes feature the fruitless mad scramble by Nashville, but it's not enough and the Preds finish their season all too early after another five game loss to San Jose. There will be plenty of debate as to whether a coaching change is needed to help this team move forward, but that's the sort of question that should wait for another day. The sting of disappointment makes you wanna sweep all the goats out, but in retrospect, you'd have to say that the Predators have taken another step in the right direction this year. Granted, it was a baby-step, and more was expected, but unless a big-name candidate is out there to take the reins, it may be worth sticking with the same, steady-handed regime.

SUMMARY
Personally, my Predators goats would have to be Paul Kariya (basically invisible), David Legwand (virtually no offensive production), Marek Zidlicky (horrible play in Game One to lose it), and Scott Nichol (for that idiotic spear that allowed the Sharks to get back in it). Coach Trotz also failed to instill a sense of discipline, as penalties constantly sapped momentum, despite excellent penalty killing. The defense seemed to lack any physical presence, and I'm surprised that Vitaly Vishnevski failed to crack the lineup for a single game. Once the Sharks got their cycle rolling in the offensive zone, all the Preds could do was try and outskate them to a loose puck to get the clear, rather than stop the forwards in their tracks and generate a turnover.

On the positive side, Tomas Vokoun played generally well enough to win, Alexander Radulov showed great promise, and the tandem of Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont were very effective at different points.

As for Forsberg, I thought he played as well as expected, but it's probably unrealistic to expect him to re-sign with Nashville as they face so many other free agents they'll need to look at over the summer. Either way, I would expect GM David Poile to make some drastic changes this offseason. The Predators missed a golden opportunity to take their franchise to the next level this season - with three more home playoff sellouts, they would have exceeded the average home attendance mark in their arena lease, and that would have eliminated all the relocation talk that has been out in the media this season. Instead, they face another uphill battle to build a corporate fan base in Nashville. People were getting excited about this team and would have been ready to jump on the bandwagon, but now we're left with talk-radio grumbling that will last about two days before the local media focus shifts to the NFL draft. This one's a bitter pill to swallow for the numerous, and rabid hockey fans here in Middle Tennessee.

*I must say that in three decades of watching playoff hockey, I've never seen a team milk the refs for calls like these San Jose Sharks. It does appear that they've been instructed to lie prone on the ice when the opportunity arises.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators, san jose sharks, stanley cup

Some perspective for Nashville Predators fans

Heading into tonight's Game Five against San Jose, many Nashville Predators fans are already abandoning hope and speculating on the future of the franchise, whether in terms of players or coaches who should or shouldn't return. For a slightly different take on the situation, head over to On Frozen Blog, where they look at a familiar pattern developing between GM David Poile's Washington Capitals teams of the 1980's, and the Predators of today.

It ain't a pretty sight, that's for sure...

Labels: nashville predators, stanley cup, washington capitals

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

And now, the NHL's OTHER regular season awards...

The NHL playoffs are now well underway, and while it's fun to focus on the bad blood, highlight-reel plays and innumerable predictions (including some of my own) which quickly go awry, I thought it's worth taking a moment to reflect on some of the outstanding achievements of the NHL regular season, before it slips all too quickly from our collective attention span.

Yes, I'm talking about the leading penalty takers from around the NHL. Back in November I looked at the leaders in various categories from 2005-06, and now it's time to hand out this season's awards, and since we're only a month removed from the film industry's Academy Awards, we'll hand them out Oscar-style...

OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN BOARDING: The nominees are...
Steve Bernier, San Jose Sharks (4)
Jonathan Cheechoo, San Jose Sharks (4)
Ryan Hollweg, NY Rangers (4)

And the winner is... Steve Bernier! No, this isn't a case of "it takes one to know one", but amongst these three players who led the league with four boarding calls each, Bernier compiled his while playing the fewest games (62).

OUTSTANDING CHARGER: The nominees are...
Derek Boogaard, Minnesota Wild (3)
Cam Janssen, New Jersey Devils (4)
Jordin Tootoo, Nashville Predators (3)

And the winner is... Cam Janssen! Topping off a magical year in which he finally scored an NHL goal, Cam led all players with four charging calls, and that doesn't even include the infamous hit on Toronto's Tomas Kaberle, upon which no penalty was given. This is Derek Boogaard's second-consecutive nomination, as he racked up three of these penalties last year as well. Once again, Boogaard loses by a nose (rimshot, please)...

CROSS-CHECKER OF THE YEAR: The nominees are...
Joni Pitkanen, Philadelphia Flyers (5)
Brent Seabrook, Chicago Blackhawks (5)
Sheldon Souray, Montreal Canadiens (7)
Brendan Witt, New York Islanders (6)

And the winner is... Sheldon Souray! It's been a season of extremes for Souray - the most goals scored among NHL defensemen (26), the worst +/- rating (-28), and the third-most penalty minutes (135) to go along with this Cross-Checking award. You can expect the competition to get tougher in this category in the years ahead, as up-and-coming youngsters like Seabrook and Pitkanen continue to hone their craft. Last year's leader in this category, Detroit's Mathieu Schneider, only took two such calls this time around.

OUTSTANDING DELAY OF GAME BY A GOALTENDER: The nominees are...
Dominik Hasek, Detroit Red Wings (5)
Rick DiPietro, New York Islanders (5)

And the winner is... Dominik Hasek! The Dominator played six fewer games and about 300 fewer minutes than DiPietro, but it seemed like eternity the way he slowed down the action.

OUTSTANDING DELAY OF GAME BY SOMEONE WHO CAN ACTUALLY SKATE:
Zdeno Chara, Boston Bruins (4)
Paul Mara, Boston Bruins (4)
Johnny Oduya, New Jersey Devils (4)
Ryan Suter, Nashville Predators (4)
Brendan Witt, New York Islanders (4)

And the winner is... Johnny Oduya! The Academy loves a fresh face, and Oduya's ability to send pucks (err, souveniers) up in the stands with aplomb will endear him to fans all over the league (as long as they're paying attention and don't get blasted).

OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (aka DIVING): The nominees are...
Sean Avery, New York Rangers (5)
Kristian Huselius, Calgary Flames (3)

And the winner is... Sean Avery! Clearly his time in L.A. was spent taking some acting lessons, which translate well to the bright lights of Broadway.

OUTSTANDING ACTING ENSEMBLE (aka DIVING by team): The nominees are...
Atlanta Thrashers (8)
Nashville Predators (11)

And the winner is... the Nashville Predators! Coincidentally, they took a diving call in each of their first two playoff games against San Jose.

OUTSTANDING ELBOWING: The nominees are...
Patrick Eaves, Ottawa Senators (2, with one major)
Ryan Hollweg, New York Rangers (4)
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins (3)

And the winner is... Evgeni Malkin! What can I say, the Academy loves the flashy newcomers. Sorry, Ryan, maybe next year.

FIGHTER OF THE YEAR: The nominees are...
Ben Eager, Philadelphia Flyers (16)
George Parros, Anaheim Ducks (18)
Andrew Peters, Buffalo Sabres (17)

And the winner is... George Parros. You have to love a fighter named "Eager", but Parros put up league-leading numbers while playing only 34 games! The fans love someone who delivers what they expect, and Parros just doesn't disappoint.

OUTSTANDING ACHIEVEMENT IN HIGH-STICKING: The nominees are...
Dany Heatley, Ottawa Senators (9)
Rostislav Klesla, Columbus Blue Jackets (9)
Alexander Semin, Washington Capitals (9)

And the winner is... Rostislav Klesla! Alright, we just want Columbus fans to have something to feel good about over the summer, so this was a gimmee.

OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A ROMANTIC ROLE (aka HOLDING): The nominees are... Mike Commodore, Carolina Hurricanes (13)
Joni Pitkanen, Philadelphia Flyers (14)
Mike Van Ryn, Florida Panthers (14)
Alexei Zhitnik, Atlanta Thrashers (12)

And the winner is... Alexei Zhitnik in an upset! Academy voters recognized the extremely difficult conditions Zhitnik had to overcome. By playing for the Flyers, Islanders and Thrashers all in the same season, it's amazing how he always seemed to figure out which team he needed to grab onto each night.

OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (aka HOLDING THE STICK): The nominees are...
Kim Johnsson, Minnesota Wild (4)
Dainius Zubrus, Washington Capitals (4)

And the winner is... Danius Zubrus! Again, we've got to give the Capitals fans something to celebrate this offseason.

HOOKER OF THE YEAR: The nominees are...
Jan Bulis, Vancouver Canucks (19)
Sergei Gonchar, Pittsburgh Penguins (19)
Lukas Krajicek, Vancouver Canucks (19)
Alexander Svitov, Columbus Blue Jackets (19)

We've got a real horse-race here, but after Bulis and Krajicek split the voters in the Great Northwest, Sergei Gonchar pulls off the repeat performance, after leading the league last year with 25 hooking calls. Keep it up, Sergei, and maybe they'll name this award after you, just as they did for Rocket Richard.

INTERFEROR(?) OF THE YEAR: The nominees are...
Sean Hill, New York Islanders (13)
Ruslan Salei, Florida Panthers (9)
Alexei Zhitnik, Atlanta Thrashers (10)

And the winner is... Sean Hill in a landslide. Consider it a lifetime achievement award for interference.

OUTSTANDING CREASE-CRASHER (aka GOALTENDER INTERFERENCE): The nominees are...
Sean Avery, New York Rangers (7)
Bobby Holik, Atlanta Thrashers (5)
Mike Johnson, Montreal Canadiens (5)

And the winner is... Sean Avery again! Our first double-winner tonight crashed four opposing goaltenders while playing for the L.A. Kings, and kept up the hard work with three more calls for the New York Rangers.

RUFFIAN OF THE YEAR (aka Roughing): The nominees are...
Donald Brashear, Washington Capitals (14)
Alex Burrows, Vancouver Canucks (14)
Jordin Tootoo, Nashville Predators (13)

And the winner is... Donald Brashear. Because when he roughs up an opponent, they're usually leaving a puddle on the ice, just thankful that he's not dropping the gloves.

OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A CHEAP HORROR FILM (aka Slashing): The nominees are...
Sean Hill, New York Islanders (8)
Jeff O'Neill, Toronto Maple Leafs (6)
Andy Sutton, Atlanta Thrashers (7)
Brendan Witt, New York Islanders (6)

And the winner is... Sean Hill again, another two-time recipient tonight. Between him and Brendan Witt, penetrating the Islanders defense is often akin to dancing in a blender.

"CAST OF THOUSANDS" AWARD (aka Too Many Men): The nominees are...
Anaheim Ducks (13)
Atlanta Thrashers (12)
Boston Bruins (12)
Detroit Red Wings (12)
Nashville Predators (12)
Pittsburgh Penguins (17)

And the winner is... the Pittsburgh Penguins! You just have to love the youthful enthusiasm with this bunch. They just want to get out there and play, regardless of whether a teammate has come off the ice first.

OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A (VERTICALLY) SUPPORTING ROLE (aka Tripping): The nominees are...
Jonathan Cheechoo, San Jose Sharks (9)
Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim Ducks (10)
Eric Staal, Carolina Hurricanes (10)

And the winner is... Scott Niedermayer! There's perhaps nothing more conspicuous than a defenseman getting called for a trip after losing position on an opponent. Granted, Niedermayer plays a ton of minutes against elite forwards, so he's often in the spotlight.

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE IN A SELF-MADE DRAMA (aka Unsportsmanlike Conduct): The nominees are...
Sean Avery, New York Rangers (9)
Chris Neil, Ottawa Senators (6)
Marc Savard, Boston Bruins (5)
Jarkko Ruutu, Pittsburgh Penguins (5)

And the winner is... Sean Avery! Capturing his third award, and thus clearly seperating himself from the rest of the NHL's penalty-taking stars, Sean Avery has truly enjoyed a breakout season.

Congratulations to all of these amazing performers, and come back next year to share another celebration of the NHL's most outstanding miscreants. Next year, I'll see if I can get Billy Crystal to host....

Labels: penalty

Saturday, April 14, 2007

"Wanna buy five copies for my mother..."

Now here's an extra excuse to go hit Starbucks Sunday morning - in the New York Times Sunday Shootout feature, Jeff Z. Klein and Karl-Eric Reif cite some of my previous work looking at the correlation between team hitting and goal-scoring.

Oops, I suppose if you follow the link, you won't have the excuse to go buy the paper. Then again, if the NY Times circulation surges this Sunday, perhaps they'll get the message that discussing hockey blogs is the real way to sell newspapers! Come on, people! Who's with me....

Labels: hits

A modest proposal for the Nashville Predators

In my humble opinion, part of the business-related challenges that the Nashville Predators have faced this year have resulted from a decidedly lame marketing effort. Billboards around the city show drivers-license style photos of the players which such thrilling phrases as "I live for the save," or "I live for speed." *yawn*

It's playoff time, and the Preds need a simpler, more straightforward message not just to energize the sports fans of Nashville, but as a response to their many critics around the hockey world:

For the columnists who would rather see them run out of the league
For the team officials who go into tirades over perceived slights
For all the Canadian media who deride Jordin Tootoo, but celebrated Tie Domi when he played for the Maple Leafs
For San Jose coach Ron Wilson, who moaned that "I don't know when he'll [Jonathan Cheechoo] play, hopefully he'll be able to come back this playoff," but started Cheechoo in Game Two, and then sent in the goons for a typical send-a-message dustup after an empty netter clinched the game last night.

Feel free to run with this, Predators PR staff - I can just bill you later for my services...

Ron Wilson may not have had anything to say after Game Two, but Nashville fans have a simple message for him.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators, san jose sharks

Friday, April 13, 2007

Happiness is...

...scrambling at the last minute but still landing a babysitter so Mrs. Forechecker and I can attend tonight's Game Two between San Jose and Nashville. Will Cheechoo play? Will the Forsberg/Radulov duo continue to create havoc? Will Barry Trotz put Zidlicky on the ice if the game goes to overtime again?

Who knows, but it should be a doozy tonight.

Labels: nashville predators, san jose sharks

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Red Wings vs. Flames, Round One Preview

Two of the most balanced teams in the Western Conference meet up tonight in Game 1 between the Detroit Red Wings and Calgary Flames. Each team has top-notch scorers up front (Jarome Iginla/Pavel Datsyuk), elite defenders along the blue line (Dion Phaneuf/Nicklas Lidstrom) and potentially game-stealing goalies behind them (Miikka Kiprusoff/Dominik Hasek). Up front I'll tell you I think this is the most intriguing matchup in the NHL so far, but here's what my spin on the numbers says about who'll come out on top:

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How the Red Wings can score: Overall, the Red Wings (as has usually been the case for the last 15 years) put loads of shots on net, particularly from 40 feet out, which isn't surprising with the likes of Lidstrom and Mathieu Schneider back there. The Flames tend to give up more of those shots as well, so look for the Detroit D to fire away early and often, and bank on Tomas Holmstrom, Kyle Calder and Todd Bertuzzi (who's "likely out" for Game One) to provide screens and go after rebounds.

How the Flames can score: It would appear that Calgary's best chance to generate offense will come from close range, as they take a low number of mid-range shots, Detroit tends to shut down those areas, and their goaltending fares well there already, a triple-whammy against Calgary through that section of the table. From inside 20 feet, however, the Flames may be able to make something happen.

Summary: This is the 2nd-tightest matchup of the opening round (2.97 vs. 2.68 GPG), and home ice is likely to play a role.

Outside the Numbers: This analysis reflects very little of Todd Bertuzzi's impact (only 8 games played with the Wings), so if he is able to come back and play effectively, that should benefit Detroit's chances.

The Prediction: I like Detroit in 7 games.

-----------
Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals and Penalty Shots are excluded.

Technorati Tags: stanley cup playoffs, detroit red wings, calgary flames

Labels: calgary flames, detroit red wings, shot quality, stanley cup

Thrashers vs. Rangers, Round One Preview

It's a new team with some old faces that will square off against the New York Rangers tonight as the Atlanta Thrashers make their playoff debut. So how will the blue hairs do against the blueshirts? Let's see what my angle on the numbers has to say:

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How the Thrashers can score: For Atlanta, it's all about execution. Their shooting percentage from close range is excellent, and the Rangers defense is giving up the opportunities, but the goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist has been saving their bacon. The Thrashers have a number of excellent finishers in Hossa, Kovalchuk, Kozlov and Tkachuk, however, and they will push Lundqvist's abilities to the limit.

How the Rangers can score: Hockey commentators love to talk about digging hard for the "tough goals" in the playoffs, and for the Rangers, that does indeed seem to be their formula for success. They are generating the most shots from 29 feet in amongst all playoff teams, and the Atlanta defense seems vulnerable to giving up a higher than average number of close-range scoring chances.

Summary: This one's a nailbiter, folks - 2.95 GPG for Atlanta vs. 2.83 for New York makes this the closest matchup of the opening round. The extra +0.25 GPG you can credit for the home team in each game could well play a factor.

Outside the Numbers: There's two factors I see working against the Rangers - the first being Sean Avery's ability to play the pest without taking penalties (unlikely in my view), and the second being whether Brendan Shanahan has any gas left in the tank to carry him in the playoffs (his last productive playoff was five years ago). Unless those dancing trannies liberated him of some serious curse, I wouldn't assume that Shanny's going to take the team on his back like some might expect.

The Prediction: I'll take Atlanta in 7 games.

Labels: atlanta thrashers, new york rangers, shot quality, stanley cup

Devils vs. Lightning, Round One Preview

The New Jersey Devils/Tampa Bay Lightning matchup would seem to be a very basic clash of styles. New Jersey is what they have been for more than ten years - a solidly deep team that stresses defense and goaltending above all else (only Philadelphia scored fewer goals in the Eastern Conference), whereas Tampa Bay relies on the sensational play from a core group of stars (Lecavalier/St. Louis/Richards) to make things happen. Without further ado, here's my take on how this series shapes up:

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How the Devils can score: During the regular season New Jersey didn't even average 2.7 goals per game, so the 3.81 expectation here says as much about the Lightning goaltending than anything else. The quantity of shots their teams won't be the concern (overall shots factor of 1.00 means shot totals should be average for New Jersey), but in the 10-19 and 20-29 foot ranges, the shooting percentage takes a big jump, meaning either the Lightning defensive coverage gives opponents more time to pick their spots, or the goaltending is failing. Either way, the Devils should enjoy a few games of offensive superstardom at the expense of Tampa Bay.

How the Lightning can score: Opposition goaltending looks to be the big story here. Despite the prospect of getting a decent number of shots, Martin Brodeur simply isn't coughing up easy goals from inside 39 feet, which is where most scoring comes from. The Lightning have a decent (not outstanding) team offense, but the Devils defense gave up the least goals in the East by a 10% margin, and I just don't see that changing in this series.

Summary: The difference between New Jersey's 3.81 and Tampa's 2.26 GPG expectations is the largest gap among all first-round matchups. Even giving an extra +0.25 to the home team in each game isn't likely to buy the Lightning much here.

Outside the Numbers: How will the Devils respond to Lou Lamoriello's April Fool's shocker by replacing Claude Julien as coach? Yes, something similar was done a few years back to Robbie Ftorek before they went on to win the Cup, but that doesn't mean it's a formula for success.

The Prediction: I'll take New Jersey in a 4-game sweep.

Labels: new jersey devils, shot quality, stanley cup, tampa bay lightning

Sabres vs. Islanders, Round One Preview

The New York Islanders made a storybook run just to qualify for the playoffs, but will that happy tale continue as they face off against the President's Trophy-winning Buffalo Sabres? My first-round previews continue with tonight's 1 vs. 8 Eastern Conference tilt...

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How the Sabres can score: Buffalo already boasts a top-notch offense, but when you factor in the amount of shots that the Islanders give up as well, that's just throwing gasoline on the fire. In particular, note the "Shots Factor" entries from 29 feet and in. The New York blueline might as well roll out the red carpet and escort opposing forwards into the slot. From 10-19 feet, for example, the Islanders are yielding 45% more shots than average.

How the Islanders can score: New York can also take hope in the fact that the Sabres cough up scoring chances as well, particularly in mid-range shots from 20-49 feet. The Islanders are also doing a good job of generating shots from close range, so the key there will be to cash in on those opportunities and not let Ryan Miller shut them down.

Summary: Lots of offense is to be expected here, as the Sabres project to 4.37 goals per game, with the Islanders potting 2.91 (give an extra +0.25 to the home team in each game). That difference of 1.46 GPG is the 2nd largest of these first-round series.

Outside the Numbers: The only chance New York has to be competitive in this series is if Wade Dubielewicz continues to play like, well, anybody other than Wade Dubielewicz. The backup netminder's surprising play over the last two weeks helped the Islanders sneak into the playoffs, but I'm guessing that New York's goaltending is more likely to underperform rather than outperform the numbers in this analysis.

The Prediction: I'll go with Buffalo in a 4-game sweep, giving them plenty of rest before moving on to the second round.
-----------
Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals and Penalty Shots are excluded.

Technorati Tags: stanley cup playoffs, buffalo sabres, new york islanders

Labels: buffalo sabres, new york islanders, shot quality, stanley cup

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Ducks vs. Wild, Round One Preview

The Anaheim Ducks energized their fans last summer when they brought Chris Pronger in via trade, and charged out of the gate as the NHL's top team during the first two months of the regular season. Now that the playoffs are here, will they still be able to dominate against a Minnesota Wild team that lurked in the mediocre Northwest, only to make a strong charge down the stretch? Let's see what the numbers can tell us...

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How Anaheim can score: Take a good long look at that "Sht % Factor" line, and abandon all hope, Ducks fans. Minnesota's goaltending appears to be the story of this series, choking off scoring opportunities to the point that Anaheim is only expected to score 2.02 goals per game (+0.25 for home games), easily the lowest mark amongst all of these first-round matchups. The key here will be on the close-in shots, of 19 feet or less. The Ducks should get their share of those shots, but if Nicklas Backstrom keeps up his furious pace, there may not be much payoff coming out of them.

How Minnesota can score: The Wild have basically a mediocre offense, and there isn't much in this matchup to suggest they'll be anything other than that against the Ducks. In most of the critical scoring ranges, Anaheim's goaltending is generally good, making up for an above-average amount of shots yielded from within 30 feet.

Summary: Mediocrity on offense seems to be enough for the Wild here, as they hold an Expected Goals/Game advantage of 2.90 to 2.02 for Anaheim. Even home-ice doesn't seem to play much of a role here.

Outside the Numbers: Remember that the numbers used here represent Exponential Moving Averages - weighing recent performance much more heavily than games at the beginning of the season. Have the Ducks merely coasted during the last few weeks of the regular season, biding their time and waiting to "flip the switch" for playoff action? They'd better hope so...

The Prediction: I'll take Minnesota in 5 games(!), in an upset that leaves Ducks fans wondering how it all fell apart so quickly.
-----------
Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals and Penalty Shots are excluded.

Technorati Tags: stanley cup playoffs, anaheim ducks, minnesota wild

Labels: anaheim ducks, minnesota wild, shot quality, stanley cup

Canucks vs. Stars, Round One Preview

The skinny on East vs. West in the NHL this year is that the Western Conference has had more defensive-oriented teams, and a perfect example of that trend is found in the Vancouver/Dallas series. Both teams have various strengths and weaknesses, but above all else they have been solid defensive performers all season, whereas few teams in the East can make the same claim.

So how do these teams match up? Let's take a look inside the numbers...

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How Vancouver can score: The Canucks don't exactly light things up offensively, and perhaps their best chance at increased offense lies in long-distance shooting. The Dallas goaltending is quite poor on shots outside of 30 feet (note the Sht % Factor well above 1.00 in each case), and when you combine that with relatively good shooting from 40-49 and 50-59 feet for the Canucks, point shots on the power play coupled with effective screening could result in about one goal per game from long range, which is about three times what teams would normally average.

How Dallas can score: The Stars don't set the world on fire offensively either, and the prospect of facing Luongo can hardly give Dallas fans great hope. Notice how the "Sht % Factor" line is constantly below 1.00? That means there are no soft spots in Luongo's armor as seen in this view, and only one particular range wherein Dallas tends to score consistently well (10-19 feet). Overall, the Vancouver defense is giving up about 10% more shots than average, so the Stars may need quantity to make up for quality.

Summary: The Expected Goals values of 2.96 for Vancouver and 2.56 for Dallas would seem to indicate a moderate edge for the Canucks, although there are several other series with wider margins than this. Using Jeff Sagarin's guideline of giving the home team an extra 0.25 goals per game, Vancouver's advantage grows slightly more.

Outside the Numbers: This is the rare case where we have uncertainty in both teams' goaltending. For Vancouver, Luongo is making his playoff debut, so you never know how he's going to react. In Dallas, Marty Turco is trying to shake off the burden of previous postseason disappointments. I wouldn't neccesarily see any reason to adjust the results here in favor of one team over the other.

The Prediction: I'll take Vancouver in 7 games, with plenty of closely-fought 2-1 and 3-2 games keeping the fans on the edge the entire way.
-----------
Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals and Penalty Shots are excluded.

Technorati Tags: stanley cup playoffs, vancouver canucks, dallas stars

Labels: dallas stars, shot quality, stanley cup, vancouver canucks

Senators vs. Penguins, Round One Preview

Perhaps the most anticipated series in the first round pits the perennial regular season powerhouse Ottawa Senators against the sensational Pittsburgh Penguins, the team that nearly moved out of town, only to wind up in the playoffs instead. The media focus on Sidney Crosby's first postseason will be intense, which perhaps takes some of the pressure off the Senators to finally make good on the promises they've made for the last several years. They've got plenty of star power on both sides, but how will the numbers shake out?

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How Ottawa can score: Shots, shots, and more shots seems to be the story here, as Ottawa takes a lot of shots, and the Pens give up a bunch as well, a dangerous combination. Much like the San Jose Sharks, expect the Sens to generate most of their goals from the 10-29 foot range. Although Marc-Andre Fleury's goaltending has been excellent leading into the playoffs (note how Sht % Factor is less than 1 across the board), the Pittsburgh defense yields plenty of shots from the 10-19 foot range, where you can expect about 20% to score. Unless the Penguins do a better job keeping Ottawa shooters outside the prime scoring areas, even Fleury's magnificent work won't keep the Senators from piling up the goals.

How Pittsburgh can score: The Ottawa defense will give up more shots than average as well, so expect plenty of up-and-down action in this series. However, the Senators goaltending appears to outperform Pittsburgh's in almost all aspects. The key here for the young Penguins is to utilize their collective talents and capitalize on the short-range opportunities that should present themselves.

Summary: The Expected Goals values of 3.61 for Ottawa and 3.10 for Pittsburgh paint a bleak picture for the young guns, especially since Ottawa has home-ice advantage.

Outside the Numbers: Probably the biggest wild card when it comes to this round is the raw inexperience of some of the key Pittsburgh Penguins (Crosby, Fleury, Evgeni Malkin, and Jordan Staal). The pressure on Crosby, in particular, is potentially overwhelming, and that can lead to players trying to do more things individually than they should, making that extra move at the blue line rather than hitting the winger with a pass or dumping the puck in.

The Prediction: I'm going with Ottawa in 5 games, but they'll probably be some of the most entertaining games of the entire postseason.

-----------

Table Key:

Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.

Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).

Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.

Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.

Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)

Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.

Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.

Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.

All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals and Penalty Shots are excluded.

Technorati Tags: stanley cup playoffs, ottawa senators, pittsburgh penguins, sidney crosby

Labels: ottawa senators, pittsburgh penguins, shot quality, sidney crosby, stanley cup

Predators vs. Sharks, Round One Preview

Our first playoff preview digs into the eagerly awaited #4 vs. #5 matchup in the West, between the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks. Last year, these two teams met in the first round and the Sharks dispatched the Preds in five games, largely attributed to two factors; the first being Nashville's inability to stay out the penalty box, and secondly, the advantage the Sharks had at the center position. Since that time, the Predators have upgraded significantly at the center spot (a couple guys named Arnott and Forsberg come to mind), and they've done a better job at staying on the positive side of the special-teams equation as well. Both teams have ranked among the NHL elite all season long, and are slotted 1st and 3rd in mc79hockey's Adjusted Goal Differential. But what does my analysis say about how these two teams match up?

For table explanation, scroll down to the bottom of this post.

How Nashville can score: The Predators' strength seems to be in perimeter scoring - their shooting percentage from outside of 10 feet is above average in all the different range slots, especially from 50+ feet, where they score almost twice as much as the rest of the league. The Sharks goaltending might well have a weakness there, as their save percentage in the 50-59 foot range is second-worst among playoff teams. That could translate into key goals for skilled Nashville blueliners like Shea Weber and Kimmo Timonen.

How San Jose can score: The vast majority (3.22 out of 3.74 total) of San Jose's goals are expected to come in the 10-29 foot range, where the perfect combination comes into play. The Sharks generate more shots there than average, they score at a higher than average rate, the Preds give up a relatively high number of those shots, and their goaltenders fare poorly in stopping them. The 10-19 and 20-29 foot ranges are the only ones in which Nashville's goaltending is subpar, yet those are exactly the ones in which San Jose is the strongest. That, to me, spells trouble for the Predators.

Summary: This picture is pretty ugly for Nashville - it says that on neutral ice, the Sharks would be expected to outscore the Predators 3.74 to 3.01. If we use Jeff Sagarin's rule of thumb, giving the home team in each game a credit of 0.25 Goals, San Jose still leads 3.74/3.26 for the games in Nashville, and dominates 3.99/3.01 at home.

Outside the Numbers: There are some factors that aren't reflected in these numbers that might play a role in this series. Nashville winger Martin Erat may well return for the playoff opener, and Scott Hartnell came back for the final two games of the regular season. If they (along with newly returned Scott Nichol) are able to play at or near 100%, perhaps that 0.73 goals per game differential gets reduced, but I highly doubt they're enough to swing the balance of power in Nashville's favor, even presuming all three are able to contribute effectively.

The Prediction: In all honesty, as much as I would love to see the Preds make a deep run in this postseason, this matchup doesn't look good for them. Based on what I'm seeing, everything would have to go right for Nashville to make this a coin flip, so I'm going with San Jose in 6 games.