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Friday, February 29, 2008

Preds Owners Submit Lease for Approval

A couple weeks ago, Hockey News writer Ken Campbell opined that since the Nashville Predators' ownership group hadn't completed the modifications to the Sommet Center lease after months of negotiating and legal work, that they should "forget the deal was ever reached, rip it up while it still isn't iron-clad and let's move on, for everyone's sake. Move the team to Kansas City to see how long it will take to fail there."

I didn't bother responding here at the time, because this tripe has been spewing out of Toronto for quite a while now, the only difference is which day and which medium (TV, print, online, etc.).

Well, hopefully we've moved a step closer to allowing those folks to go back to chewing bark, accosting moose and obsessing over the Maple Leafs' collection of untradeable players, as the Freeman group is indeed submitting the amended Sommet Center lease to Nashville's Metro Sports Authority this afternoon, as reported by the City Paper's Richard Lawson.

UPDATE: In the Tennessean's story about this same development, there is an interesting tidbit of news: Boots Del Biaggio is no longer the single largest stakeholder in the team, as had been widely reported earlier. To quote the Tennessean, "the Predators' lead owner, Nashville-based venture capitalist David Freeman, owns 32.63 percent of the team, while California-based William "Boots" Del Biaggio III and Warren Woo together own 31.58 percent." Many have used the angle of Del Biaggio being the largest stakeholder as an indication that this is all merely a front for an eventual relocation to Kansas City.

Labels: nashville predators

Catch The Rocket

Back in December, the good folks at Palm Pictures sent me a review copy of The Rocket, the film covering the life and career of Maurice Richard. Unfortunately I was in the middle of moving into a new house at the time, and only recently got my whole TV/DVD/Speaker setup completely in place, so this review comes a bit late; I apologize for the delay, but if you've got any kind of movie collection and are a hockey fan, The Rocket is a must-have, plain and simple.

The on-ice action is, frankly, the best I've ever seen in a movie; superior even to that in Miracle. From the outdoor game near the beginning of the film, to the hallowed rinks of the Original Six era, the hockey action has enough detail and authenticity to suck in the hockey player, while maintaining enough clarity and spacing not to lose the casual viewer in a flurry of activity. There are a number of lesser and greater parts filled with NHL players such as Mike Ricci, Mathieu Dandenault, and Sean Avery (as what else? A goon...), but to the film's enduring credit they blend in seamlessly.

Some reviews I've seen online have complained that perhaps the dialogue is sparse at times and undercuts the overall storyline, which outlines the treatment of French-speaking Canadians during that era, and how Richard became an icon to his community for his triumphs on an Anglophone-dominated stage. There's a point to all this, however; when Richard speaks to the people of Montreal in a radio address near the end of the film, those words count all the more for having been so slow in coming.

So head on over to the film's website, and check out the trailer, some photos, and film clips. If you want to order the DVD (you probably won't find it in stores), there's a "Rocket Game" on the website that if you play, there's an offer afterward for 30% off. Enjoy...

Thursday, February 28, 2008

The Road To The Playoffs Takes A Turn

While the web-surfing hockey fan can find reams of analysis as to which teams did or did not help themselves on the NHL's Trade Deadline Day this week, there's another question worth answering when one considers how tight the playoff races remain. To what extent has the remaining schedule for various teams gotten tougher or easier, depending on what their upcoming opponents have done to their rosters? Since the 5th-9th spots in the West are separated by a mere 4 points, and 6th-11th by just 6 in the East, strength of schedule will play a critical role in determining who makes the post-season and who's playing golf in early April.

All season long I've used a custom spreadsheet made freely available on the web to provide some detail behind the NHL schedule; it includes information such as how many days have elapsed for each team between games, how far they had to travel, their opponents' vital competitive statistics, etc. In light of Tuesday's frenetic trading, I opted to take a different look at the final portion of the NHL regular season, and categorize teams as having either Upgraded or Downgraded their present talent, and then checked to see which teams are playing teams that beefed up for the playoffs, and which teams can look forward to opponents who sold off today for (presumably) a better tomorrow.

In this view, for example, the Detroit Red Wings have seen the biggest easing in their schedule. They still have eleven games against teams which traded down (such as Columbus and St. Louis), against only two against teams which upgraded themselves (like San Jose). On the opposite end, the New York Rangers has only two games against a weaker opponent, but nine against those who stocked up.

In terms of impact on the playoff races, this would seem to indicate that Carolina and Washington's roads have become somewhat easier, while the Islanders and Rangers are facing a steeper climb. In the West, San Jose should pull comfortably ahead of their competition, while Calgary benefits from a schedule that includes Columbus (twice), Chicago, St. Louis and Atlanta, perhaps the easiest path to the playoffs among their Northwest Division foes.

Labels: statistics

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Preds Torched in Buffalo

Into every NHL season a lame effort or two will happen to any team, but with Wednesday's 8-4 debacle in Buffalo, the Predators have now given up 6 or more goals three times in the last two-and-a-half weeks (previously to Chicago and Dallas at home). Perhaps most disturbing, there seems to be no single cause for these repeated train wrecks; they encompass a combination of marshmallow-soft goaltending, shoddy defensive zone coverage, and a total lack of composure. A few horrid examples:

Dan Hamhuis stepping up and totally whiffing on an attempted hit on Derek Roy as the Sabres crossed into the Predators zone; instead of staying in position, his miss allows Roy to head to the net uncontested for an easy goal that made it 6-3.

Scott Nichol lost it again, sucker-punching one of the Sabres who was tied up with Vern Fiddler. Nichol dropped his glove and came at the guy from the side and cold-cocked him. I wouldn't be surprised to see a suspension come out of that. For a decent PK'er and faceoff guy, Nichol shows little to no maturity when the pressure's on, and Trotz needs to make it clear that something's got to change. This is exactly the sort of thing that ended Nashville's hopes against San Jose in the playoffs last spring, and it can't be tolerated.

After Andrew Peters was left all alone in the slot for an easy goal at 4:13 of the 2nd (as if that wasn't bad enough), Ryan Suter could have been whistled for throwing a shot at one of the Sabres celebrating the goal, but the refs (who lost control of things in the 3rd) let it go. The same applies here as to Nichol's nonsense above. Act like a pro out there, already!

A couple of those early goals should have been stopped by Mason, whose only weak spots were to his left, right, or through the 5-hole.

On the positive side, Jan Hlavac looked impressive. He was strong on the puck along the boards, and picked up a goal while the game was still competitive. Jason Arnott scored twice and David Legwand popped in a rebound goal as well, but things simply caved in beginning late in the 2nd period.

So what happens next? Some form of dramatic statement needs to be made by the coaching staff at this point; either lineup changes (play Klein and Koistinen!) or a shift in tactics to emphasize a return to shut-down hockey. As of this morning the Predators are on the outside of the playoffs looking in, and that's pretty much entirely due to these continuing defensive lapses over the last few weeks.

Not all is lost, by any means, but this ship needs to be righted quickly.

Labels: buffalo sabres, nashville predators

Predators Ride Into Buffalo

Tonight the Predators return to action in Buffalo, taking on a team that's challenging for playoff position much like Nashville, but unlike them, sold off a major asset yesterday by trading away defenseman Brian Campbell for Steve "Spine of Glass" Bernier from San Jose (yes, the guy that Radulov boarded in the playoffs last year).

For an interconference game, there's some interesting history heading in; besides the fact that Bernier will obviously be cowering in fear whenever Radulov steps on the ice, there's J.P. Dumont making his first visit to Buffalo after leaving there as a free agent in the summer of 2006. He won an arbitration case as a restricted free agent, but Sabres GM Darcy Regier didn't want to pay the awarded salary ($2.9 million for one year), so Dumont was able to walk away and sign with Nashville for two years at $2.25 million per. It will be interesting to see how he's received by Sabres fans, I doubt they'll be very harsh, as Dumont was a solid performer in Buffalo and won his arbitration case, so it wasn't like he held Buffalo hostage for a king's ransom.

Oh yeah, and there was also this little dust-up last year when the Sabres came to Nashville. Any chance Scott Nichol and Jaroslav Spacek will get back together?

Game Notes: Jan Hlavac is expected to join the Predators tonight and play on the fourth line, according to John Glennon at the Tennessean. Brandon Bochenski won't make it.

The Preds are 4-3-3 in their last 10 road games, and tonight marks the start of a six-game swing that continues in Dallas, Edmonton, Vancouver, Calgary and Detroit. The Sabres are 5-2-3 in their last 10 home games, and are coming off a shootout loss at home to the Flyers Monday night that saw former Sabre Daniel Briere score the clincher for Philly. Any bets on whether Dumont repeats that feat tonight?

For the Buffalo perspective, check out the outstanding BfloBlog.

Labels: buffalo sabres, nashville predators

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

I'm guessing David Poile slept in...

So the NHL Trading Deadline did indeed turn out to be a chaotic swap meet, just as everyone had hoped for, with 23 deals ranging from the banal to the blockbuster, including a Marian Hossa trade that has Pittsburgh pushing hard for a postseason run this spring. To many local fans' disappointment, the Nashville Predators pretty much stood pat on this manic day of flesh peddling, obtaining only Jan Hlavac, a former 2nd-round pick who hasn't had a productive NHL season since 2000-1 with the New York Rangers. Out of the 30 NHL teams, only Boston, Edmonton and Calgary abstained from making a deal.

UPDATE: It looks like the Preds also picked up Brandon Bochenksi from Anaheim for the ever-popular "future considerations."

Personally, I was disappointed to see the Philadelphia Flyers land Vinny Prospal for a defense prospect and a conditional 2009 pick (2nd or 3rd round). I thought that Prospal would make an excellent addition to the Predators' lineup, although obviously Nashville GM David Poile didn't want to part with any of his young talent for someone who's headed for unrestricted free agency this summer. It's important to remember, however, that there are going to be plenty of losers out of today's deals, and Poile certainly didn't jeopardize the 3-5 year plan he's been discussing that involves signing his core young players and building through the draft.

Even without landing a star player themselves, Nashville may end up a winner today because we've seen St. Louis, Chicago and Columbus turn into sellers, trading away present value on their teams for lesser players and draft picks. St. Louis sent defenseman Bryce Salvador to New Jersey for Cam Janssen, a classic knuckle-dragger with 95 career NHL games played, 1 goal, and 205 penalty minutes. Even more amazing, he has a grand total of 19 shots; in other words, he averages a shot on goal once every five games. They also shipped Christian Backman to the Rangers for a 4th-round pick. Columbus sent Sergei Fedorov to Washington (great pickup for the Caps), and Chicago dumped Tuomo Ruutu and Martin Lapointe.

Since the Predators play these teams 6 times in the last 7 games of the season, that might prove an easier road than their playoff rivals from the Northwest Division, who are all gearing up for battle and play other quite often down the stretch. Tomorrow night the Predators play at Buffalo, which just traded away dynamic defenseman Brian Campbell for Steve Bernier and a 1st round 2008 pick.

By the way, Preds fans, be sure to head over the New York Times website, where their hockey blog, Slap Shot, is featuring bloggers from each NHL team (including yours truly) chiming on in a series of questions, including "What player would you most like to see checked right through the Zamboni doors?". Based on my quick assessment of the answers, it looks like Jordin Tootoo's running 2nd to Sean Avery on that one!

Labels: nashville predators, trades

Just a few hours left, NHL shoppers!

Attention, NHL General Managers; just in time for all you last minute-shoppers, I've got your Penalty Plus/Minus* update through the games of February 24, 2008. With Sidney Crosby out of the lineup for so long, Dustin Brown of the Los Angeles Kings is now your league leader with a +35 rating, followed by Sid the Kid and Alexander Ovechkin at +31.

UPDATE: I just saw that the Colorado Avalanche have acquired Ruslan Salei from Florida. Congratulations, you just snagged the very worst Penalty Plus/Minus player in the entire NHL, at -30! I wonder if they plan on playing Forsberg on the penalty kill...

Remember to consult this list before making that final pitch for that player you're seeking to obtain, so as to adjust your offer accordingly. You can go with something like this:

"Yeah, I can see why you're offering up Bobby Holik, but how's he going to help me defensively when he's got a -17 Penalty Plus/Minus? I'm going to have to pick up an extra penalty killer just to make up for the time he'll spend sitting in the box! The best I can give you is a 3rd rounder..."

Yes, don't miss this valuable opportunity to properly calibrate your Trade Deadline Day strategy by missing out on this critical information! Are you jealous of the Philadelphia Flyers for picking up veteran defenseman Jaroslav Modry? You wouldn't be if you saw that him down near the bottom of this list at -19.

As to some of the big names being tossed around as trade possibilities today, we have Atlanta's Marian Hossa at +15 (he doesn't just score, he gets your team power plays as well), Tampa Bay's Brad Richards at +11, and Los Angeles' Rob Blake at -21.

By the way, break out the kazoos and ballooons, as this post marks #500 here at On the Forecheck. I was going to take a look back and pick out some prime bits to share with you, but today's a pretty busy one for all of us (gotta hit refresh over at TSN again), so I'll save that for later this week.

*Penalty Plus/Minus is derived from Penalties Drawn from opposing teams by an individual player, minus the penalties committed by that player. 10-minute and game misconducts aren't counted, since they don't affect the on-ice strength of the teams.

Labels: penalty, statistics

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Work That Red Carpet, Baby!

Hey, it's Oscar Night, so high time to point you back to a popular post that covered last season's Alternative NHL Awards; before you click, however, be advised: it's strictly a black-tie affair...

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Leggy Boozes It, Preds Lose It

So I took my daughter to see the Predators tangle with the Dallas Stars tonight, with the Preds taking a 6-3 beating and basically coming unglued in the 2nd & 3rd periods. In particular, I was going to come home and rip on David Legwand, who seems to vanish as soon as he crosses center ice with the puck; often it seemed like he'd carry it into the offensive zone, and then just look for a safe path to the boards rather than actually drive to the net and create a scoring chance.

He's gone scoreless in 9 of the last 11 games now, and until tonight, hadn't taken more than 2 shots in a game since February 2nd against Phoenix. For a guy who just received a hefty contract extension, the team needs more on-ice leadership from their #2 center.

But now I see where perhaps he might have been a bit distracted; news broke tonight that Legwand was arrested on a DUI while leaving downtown Nashville last weekend.

This ain't gonna be good, folks. From the Newschannel 5 report;

According to a state arrest warrant obtained by NewsChannel 5, the 27-year-old Nashville Predator was going 51 in a 35 mile an hour zone last Friday night.

His eyes were bloodshot and watery, and his speech was slurred. Legwand was stopped by the police just south of downtown, on 8th Avenue South, near South Street.

There, according to the report, Legwand was unsteady on his feet during a field sobriety test and swayed back and forth. Legwand refused a breathalyzer test, and told the officer, according to the report, "I don't want to take it and register a .09 or something."

Well, at least now Leggy has a chance to make an All-Star team this year:

The NHL's All-Star DUI Team

Coincidentally, my daughter (who turns 6 next month) asked me to explain the "Booze It & Lose It" messages displayed on the Megatron during the game, so we had a lengthy discussion on what alcohol is, and how it's a terrible thing to drive after having some. Especially with the Predators beaming that message throughout the arena several times a game, it'll be interesting to see whether this charge ends up with Legwand losing his driver's license (among other things, of course).

Combine this episode with the loss of Martin Gelinas for an extended period with an ACL injury, and you have to believe the level of the Predators' clubhouse morale is taking a nosedive. Perhaps the best thing working in Legwand's favor is that the team is heading out on the road for the next several games, getting him away from what should be some (justifiably) difficult coverage by the local media.

With Nashville stuck in a wide-open dogfight for playoff position, they don't have time to tailspin for a week or two because a key player has such a major off-ice distraction. The other thing to watch will be how the team disciplines Legwand for this. The Tennessee Titans have been heavily criticized for their kid-glove approach to Pacman Jones, the cornerback who's earned massive Frequent Flyer Miles in police booking stations throughout the Southeast. How the Predators react to this situation will be closely scrutinized...

And here's one question to be answered; Barry Trotz mentioned having a meeting with Legwand earlier this week regarding his offensive production. Did Trotz know about the arrest, and/or did Legwand tell him during the meeting? If Legwand kept his coach, and his team, in the dark about this, that's a horrible mistake on his part.

Labels: nashville predators

Friday, February 22, 2008

You Gonna Window Shop All Day, Or What?

One wouldn't exactly say "the party never stops" when it comes to the NHL Trade Deadline, especially since that deadline is indeed next Tuesday, but you could just about say "the party never starts" instead. Despite incessant rumor-mongering and speculation, we've had nothing but scraps come in lately in terms of NHL trades, with the lone exception of last week's Carolina/Ottawa four-player swap. But just in case GM David Poile gets the urge to start shopping for his Nashville Predators this weekend while I'm not close to the keyboard, I thought I'd leave some thoughts on the matter:

What the Preds need: A serviceable Top Six forward, especially if Martin Gelinas' knee injury turns out to be a season-ender. Rich Peverley has done fine work in a short stint, and yes, Kevin Klein has been attending Winger School in Milwaukee, but this team needs an offensive threat to help spark David Legwand and Martin Erat, who have been slumping of late. I've been jumping up and down for weeks regarding Vaclav Prospal being my first choice on this front (based on ability, affordability, and upcoming free agency), but I wouldn't rule out a good centerman, either, if one were obtainable (cough, cough, Sergei Fedorov).

What the Preds can give up: The obvious trading asset is the depth on the blue line, with eight able bodies on the active roster. Ryan Suter may be the most tradeable one of the bunch, in that he's a proven performer who's about to get a significant raise in his next contract. Klein and Ville Koistinen could step into the lineup for the next season or two at bargain-basement prices, without too much dropoff in performance, and the money that would have gone to Suter could instead be applied to either the player gained in trade, or another free agent acquisition this summer.

If the deal were a real knockout, Nashville could perhaps deal Dan Ellis, considering the season that Pekka Rinne is having down on the farm in Milwaukee, but that might stretch the goaltending depth too thin for Mr. Poile's liking. There do seem to be a number of cheap goalies available on the free agency market this summer, so this might not be a bad idea, planning for a 2008-9 with Chris Mason & a veteran backup in Nashville, and Rinne continuing to mature in Milwaukee.

Certainly, the Preds shouldn't (and probably won't) trade away the draft picks they've been stocking up, particularly the #1 from Florida in the upcoming draft. Who knows what might happen, there's an outside chance that Nashville could have the top pick overall if things work out right over the next several weeks.

Anyways, Mr. Poile, just review this before working the phones this weekend, in case you can't reach me to personally review a deal before you pull the trigger...

Labels: nashville predators

Swedish Twins Stink It Up, But Luongo Saves The Day

The Predators simply ran into the best goaltender in the world last night, firing 51 shots on Vancouver's net yet still coming up short in a 3-2 shootout loss. It took a 3rd period goal by Marek Zidlicky to tie things up at 2-2 and send the game to overtime, earning Nashville at least one point for their efforts, but Roberto Luongo simply put on a show, and demonstrated why nobody will want to face the Canucks in the playoffs this spring. Predictably, he stuffed all three Predators in the shootout to earn the victory. Frankly, I think the NHL needs to take another look at his equipment; not about the size, but I suspect that he's using some sticky, marshmallow-like material in his leg pads, as the pucks never seems to pop back out once Luongo makes a save.

Yes, he is indeed #1

Things very nearly took an entirely different course early in the game when Dan Hamhuis fired a shot on Nashville's first power play that Luongo snagged with his glove. The ref ruled it a clean save, but it went to video review as to whether the puck had crossed the line before Luongo pulled it back out; the video was inconclusive (although I'd say it was probably in, that just ain't good enough), so the game remained scoreless until a final-minute goal by Mason Raymond sent the Canucks into the locker room with a 1-0 lead. Terry Crisp correctly pointed out that Matt Cooke interfered with Greg Zanon, which allowed Raymond to cut in front of the net for the score, but hey, if you can get away with it, it's a great play.

Jason Arnott tied things up in the second with a textbook power play goal, taking a crossing pass from J.P. Dumont and firing home a one-timer from his favorite spot, off to the goalie's right near the faceoff dot. Seven minutes later, however, the Canucks pulled ahead again on a long shot from Alexander Edler that had plenty of traffic in front of Chris Mason, who seemed inspired by his opposite number and played an outstanding game himself.

Overall, the Preds put in a solid effort; the defense really stepped and contributed offensively (Shea Weber had 10 shots, Ryan Suter 5 and Marek Zidlicky 4), and the overall squad outshot Vancouver in every period. As Zanstrom points out over at Waiting For Stanley, the Sedin twins weren't effective at all, and Henrik in particular looked out of sorts, retaliating at every percieved slight and taking bad penalties. The worst was a high stick that Henrik got whistled for in the 3rd, which gave the Predators the power play on which Zidlicky scored to tie the game.

The OT loss leaves Nashville, for the moment, tied for 5th in the West alongside San Jose, with Vancouver and Calgary two points behind. The kicker is that all three of those teams hold two games in hand in the Preds, so effectively it's a four-way logjam. If they keep playing like they did last night, Nashville will be in fine shape, but the key is to put frustration out of the way ASAP, and prepare to face a red-hot Dallas Stars team Saturday night at the Sommet Center. They'll do so without veteran winger Martin Gelinas, who suffered a knee injury in the 2nd period and is being evaluated today.

Labels: nashville predators

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Pound Away For Those Rebounds

As we head into the final quarter of the NHL regular season, tension builds as playoff races intensify, and every goal seems to take on added importance. During these times, and the playoffs to follow, we often hear that the difference between winning and losing comes down to which team battles harder down close to the goal working for rebound opportunities after a shot has been stopped by an opposing goaltender.

Rebound shots* are a relatively rare commodity in the NHL, averaging roughly three per game over the course of a season. That scarcity only adds to their importance, however, because the typical rebound shot stands a greater chance of scoring than other attempts, after taking shot distance, on-ice strength and shot type into account.

So which teams are getting the job done down low, grabbing rebounds and getting off that second shot? And which ones are converting those dangerous chances into goals? Let's take a look at the following table to find out:

Perhaps what is most noteworthy here is the team down near the bottom, the defending Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks. Despite all that size and grit, they haven't created very many rebound opportunities.

And which players lead the league in such attempts?

Many won't be surprised to see the gritty Chris Drury at the top of this list, he's a well-known battler who has scored several key goals in playoffs past. Take a gander further down, however, and you'll see Olli Jokinen, the prized Florida center who is at the center of so many trade rumors these days. Matching our first table with the second could imply that a team like Minnesota might especially benefit by obtaining the Panthers' captain; not only is he a strong overall player, but he would shore up what might just be the weakest aspect of the Wild offense.

Another interesting entry here is Daymond Langkow of Calgary, with only 1 goal scored on 18 rebounds shots. Something tells me that this is an unlikely trend to continue, and if Langkow keeps getting those chances, the goals could start coming quickly.

So as you're watching your favorite team struggle for those all-important victories, keep an eye out for rebound opportunities; who's getting them, and who's not. If a player whiffs on a bouncing puck in front of a prone goalie, that will never show up on the stat sheet, but it is most assuredly an opportunity lost, and as we can all tell from looking at the NHL standings, there's little margin for error in the run to the Stanley Cup playoffs.

*Here defined as a shot taken within two seconds of another, from less than 30 feet from the endboards, and without any intervening events

Labels: florida panthers, minnesota wild, statistics

Fab Forecheckers Flying High

Welcome to those of you coming over from Mirtle's blog, where he's posted the standings from this year's Blogger Invitational Hockey Pool. Yes, I've been fortunate enough to have a very successful season there so far, so I thought I'd point you to a piece I wrote last fall that pretty much laid out my Fantasy Hockey draft strategy. Basically, it's not about out-predicting your competitors as to who's going to have a great season, but rather doing a better job obtaining value with each particular draft pick.

I've also been lucky not to have been stricken too badly by the injury bug, although Richard Zednik is certainly out for the year, and had been doing well for me. All in all, it's been a fun run so far, with only one week out of 20 in which I've been outscored by my opponent.

You can expect a fully fleshed out, pay-per-view Fantasy Hockey guide next fall if somehow I manage to close the deal here...

Labels: fantasy hockey

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Who's up for a nice, juicy contract?

In a blog post this afternoon, the Tennessean's John Glennon makes the point that with some of the Nashville Predators key players receiving contract extensions (David Legwand, J.P. Dumont, Jordin Tootoo), it's high time for David Poile to sign up the coaching staff long-term as well. On first blush, this looks like a slam-dunk argument; despite a salary purge last summer that had most experts picking Nashville to miss the playoffs, Trotz & Co. have the Predators in prime position for a Western Conference playoff berth. Based on points, Nashville is in 5th currently, just two points behind 4th-place Anaheim, although if one uses winning percentage (to accomodate for Games Played) the Predators sit in 6th.

Either way, they've climbed ahead of several teams that were supposed to surge past them in the NHL standings, such as St. Louis, Chicago and Colorado. The Preds have earned 33 points since January 1st, tops in the league, so naturally optimism is riding high and many would believe that locking up that coaches is imperative so the coaches can focus on the job ahead.

Lest the team make a long-term decision based on short-term performance, however, it's worth considering one area of the team that has consistently underperformed, and might well be addressed by a change within the assistant coaching ranks; the power play. Part of the problem, as noted here a few days ago, is that Nashville ranks dead-last in the NHL at winning faceoffs while on the power play, wasting precious seconds as they attempt to regain possession and set up in the offensive zone. Nashville sits 26th in power play effectiveness, after a switch was made in the offseason to hand it over to Brent Pederson, who was going to dictate a "shoot early and often" policy. In 2006-7 the team ranked 18th, and in 2005-6 they were 10th, so clearly things are headed in the wrong direction. Yes, the loss of Kimmo Timonen and Paul Kariya might be blamed for a part of that dip, but by now that should be overcome with the talent available. Despite the recent overall team success, this ineffectiveness with the man advantage remains a cause for concern, especially with the playoffs approaching.

Perhaps, then, Poile could sign Barry Trotz to a multi-year extension, and address the rest of the coaching staff this summer after evaluating how things turn out. In the larger sense, Trotz still clearly has the attention of his players. He's adjusted to the changing talent in the locker room, and has iced a competitive squad on the shoestring budget that Poile had to work with. He's taken a stern approach in awarding ice time to Alexander Radulov that's seen the young Russian improve his defensive awareness, earning him 20+ minutes a night lately and leading the team in goal-scoring (24). It's been an outstanding effort that's definitely worth consideration for the Jack Adams Award, but I'd give a second thought before handing out contracts to everyone standing behind the bench...

Labels: nashville predators

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Those Oilers Just Don't Go Away Quietly

Tonight's game against Edmonton started off looking like a ho-hum affair where the red-hot, playoff-bound Predators would sweep aside the foundering, injury-riddled Oilers. At least that's the way the first few pages of the script read, as Nashville jumped out to a 2-0 first period lead, including a sweet effort by Alexander Radulov that set the crowd rocking. A-Rad picked a puck off the sideboard and peeled into the slot as the Edmonton defenders scrambled to cover everyone except the shooter, giving the super soph plenty of time to pick his spot and score his 24th goal of the season.

A few minutes later, however, the Oilers realized they weren't the Washington Generals after all, and fought back gamely. Fernando Pisani (a member of the Fab Forecheckers, but, alas, not on the active roster tonight) scored late in the first to bring Edmonton within 2-1, and even though Jordin Tootoo scored five minutes into the second to widen the gap to 3-1, Edmonton kept on coming. Three unanswered goals by the Oilers left the Preds down 4-3 and the home crowd in a panic, but fortunately for them, that only lasted for 23 seconds, as Jason Arnott replied with a tip-in goal that tied the game at 4 heading into the 3rd...

I was worried that with a tie game the two sides would play it safe and head for OT, but the Oilers kept firing shots (14 in the 3rd for 36 on the game), and Dan Ellis turned in a fine performance down the stretch, not allowing Edmonton back on the board. In the end, it was another clutch goal by J.P. Dumont that put the Predators up for good 5-4, and sending ravenous fans out into the streets to take their ticket stubs to Taco Bell, now that the "Score Five, Win a Taco" promotion has been restored. Dumont ended up with the game-winning goal, two assists, and a +4 rating, not bad work in his first game back after missing two due to illness. That top line of Dumont, Arnott and Radulov combined for 3 goals and 4 assists, looking more like a world-class line every night.

On the back end, Ville Koistinen returned to the ice with Greg Zanon a healthy scratch, but didn't make much impact for better or worse on the game. Nashville only had two minutes of power play time, and that's where Koistinen has the greatest chance to shine. As the boys over at Battle of Alberta showed recently, despite Nashville having more power play opportunities than they allow to their opponents (+19 as of that piece), they had only scored 1 more goal than their opponents on special teams all season. The Predators are doing a fine job of drawing calls and not taking penalties themselves, but if the power play fails to cash in, those are huge opportunities that are lost.

The Vancouver Canucks and their world-beating goaltender Roberto Luongo roll into town on Thursday, and you can bet that goals will come few and far between compared to tonight's second-period shootout...

Labels: edmonton oilers, nashville predators

Jumping on the Meme Train (Book 123)

Since PB from One Fan's Perspective called me out, here's my stab at the 123 Book Meme that's running around like the Flu these days. From PB:

The meme is quite simple:

* Grab the nearest book 123 pages or more (PB: easy for me to do considering my day job) [Forechecker: me too, I work in the book biz]
* Open it to page 123
* Find the first five sentences and write them down
* Invite five others to do so the same

I was tempted to pick something off the bookshelves around me, but I think active selection defeats the purpose here, so instead I grabbed a book that's right on my desk, but unread as of yet.

So here we go, from Dissent In America:

Have we not for years had before our eyes a sample of their designs, and are they not sufficient harbingers of their future determinations? Will we not soon be driven from our respective countries and the graves of our ancestors? Will not the bones of our dead be plowed up, and their graves be turned into fields? Shall we calmly wait until they become so numerous that we will no longer be able to resist oppression? Will we wait to be destroyed in our turn, without making an effort worthy of our race?

Wow, that's a chipper little sentiment, isn't it (that's from the Shawnee leader Tecumseh, by the way)? Anyways, time to call out five worthies to grace us with the same:

I call on you... Truth Serum (of End of the Bench), RudyKelly of Battle of California, PredJoe, The Falconer, and Ted Leonsis (hey, might as well aim high).

Labels: meme

What the NHL might learn from College Hockey

It seems like the Preds did pretty well over the weekend while I was away, earning 3 points in 2 games against St. Louis and Minnesota. Tonight brings a home game against the banged-up Edmonton Oilers (minus Sheldon Souray and Shawn Horcoff), as J.P. Dumont is expected back in the lineup after missing two games due to illness. With Jordin Tootoo having returned as well, the Preds are getting healthier during a critical part of their schedule. But before resuming my focus on the NHL, it's worth reflecting for a moment on my weekend trip up to Ann Arbor...

Saturday night's Michigan/Lake Superior State game reminded me of everything that's great about college hockey; you had a packed house, a hard-fought win over a tough opponent (although the biggest loss may be an injury to senior winger Chad Kolarik), and a sampling of all the great traditions that have grown up around U-M hockey over the last 15 or so years. We had seats near the Michigan Hockey Pep Band, and they kept things lively all night long at Yost Ice Arena. I've said it before, and I'll say it again; if you live within a few hours' drive and haven't been to a game at Yost, you're missing out on a great hockey experience.

Now in Nashville, Predators' games have more of this kind of atmosphere than other NHL arenas I've been to, with Cell Block 303 and the assorted chants they bring into the mix at various points of the game. But I think the Predators might be wise to take a look at what's happening in Ann Arbor, and perhaps glean a few more ideas to help make the in-game experience more inviting to both the casual and hard-core hockey fan.

1. Having an actual pep band is so much more energetic than canned "Make Noise" instructions from the scoreboard. Considering how popular college sports are in Middle Tennessee, the Predators could identify certain nights on the schedule and invite in a pep band from a local university. You could have a Vanderbilt night, Belmont night, etc. Granted, it would take some coordination and planning to figure out how to work a live pep band into the presentation of the game, but it would be a unique offering that would surely draw attention.

2. Yost Arena hosts recreational leagues and hockey camps, and while the schedule of the Sommet Center probably rules out blocking out extra dates for such activities, recognizing both youth and adult hockey players from around the community is always a good idea. You could have a mini-game during intermission, or as has been done with the Centennial Sportsplex rec leagues, host an All-Star game after the conclusion of the Preds game.

3. As noted earlier, Cell Block 303 does a great job of bringing the noise, but for new folks coming into the building, it can be confusing trying to figure out what they're up to. Working with the 303 to get the word out more easily to casual fans would only help to bring them into the experience. Something simple like flyers handed out as fans enter the arena might do the trick.

Just a few thoughts on how to perhaps bring some more of that college hockey vibe to the NHL experience, take them for what they're worth, and enjoy that Preds/Oilers game tonight.

Labels: nashville predators

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Taking in the good old (college) hockey game

I guess I'm as lucky as Mr. Jibblescribbits; for Christmas, Mrs. Forechecker got me tickets to tonight's University of Michigan vs. Lake Superior State hockey game. And since we live just outside Nashville, that means a weekend getaway to the old sod, Ann Arbor, Michigan, with the Little Forecheckers staying with relatives for a couple days.

Of course, our car just barely made it to our location before petering out, so this morning I'm taking it to a local dealer to see what's up, but still we've got a day or two in a grand old college town and get to take in the action at Yost Arena tonight, which, if you've never been, is a great venue for a hockey game. Back in the 1989 when I first came to Ann Arbor you could sneak into the games for free after they started, as the program was still mediocre and Red Berenson hadn't been here very long. But we got to see the likes of Aaron Ward and Chris Tamer physically dominate their CCHA opponents, and later on of course championship teams led by Brendan Morrison and Jason Botterill. As street hockey devotees (before the rise of inline skating), we used to play with a couple wood & chicken wire nets behind South Quad. Occasionally we'd pick up discarded U-M Hockey sticks that were left in the garbage bins behind Yost the next day after games; there were usually several with the most minor of cracks in the shaft, so they were still useful for our purposes.

Please forgive the long-winded reminiscence, but suffice to say I'll be off the grid for tonight's Preds game vs. St. Louis, and most likely tomorrow's vs. Minnesota as well as we head back to Tennessee. In the meantime, I'll be cheering on those #1 Wolverines... Go Blue!

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Blackhawks 6, Predators 1

Into every NHL season, a truly awful effort or two slips in along the way to 82 games.

Tonight was the Preds' worst outing since that 6-0 shellacking that Los Angeles put on them back in October.

That's enough, now, OK guys?

Labels: nashville predators

Who Needs Help in the Faceoff Circle

Today's feature comes via the prompting of David, a reader of this blog who noted to me in an email that "it seems that teams on the power play seem to win face-offs most of the time. I figured it was just one of those weird perception things... that really had no merit." David then showed some numbers from selected teams that seemed to indicate a trend, so I went ahead and pulled all the data for this season up through the games of February 13, and came up with the following results for teams depending on the situation (even strength, power play, shorthanded):

**Faceoff Percentages By Team & Situation**
Team	EV %	PP %	SH %	Tot %
Anaheim Ducks	51.09%	50.97%	42.45%	49.68%
Atlanta Thrashers	52.74%	58.81%	40.92%	51.87%
Boston Bruins	49.14%	54.99%	38.19%	48.33%
Buffalo Sabres	45.99%	61.76%	42.52%	47.71%
Calgary Flames	50.33%	54.57%	41.96%	49.71%
Carolina Hurricanes	50.08%	58.02%	46.97%	50.92%
Chicago Blackhawks	51.74%	60.68%	46.41%	52.41%
Colorado Avalanche	47.80%	54.29%	37.77%	47.52%
Columbus Blue Jackets	53.04%	56.76%	44.10%	52.29%
Dallas Stars	49.14%	55.45%	49.32%	49.98%
Detroit Red Wings	54.20%	57.71%	54.07%	54.70%
Edmonton Oilers	49.81%	59.54%	48.43%	50.89%
Florida Panthers	49.33%	53.83%	41.89%	48.84%
Los Angeles Kings	47.38%	55.09%	42.69%	48.00%
Minnesota Wild	46.64%	53.61%	41.47%	46.84%
Montreal Canadiens	49.02%	53.46%	41.51%	48.65%
Nashville Predators	50.84%	50.12%	45.48%	50.04%
New Jersey Devils	49.65%	56.46%	44.42%	49.90%
New York Islanders	51.43%	58.84%	45.40%	51.45%
New York Rangers	51.69%	57.70%	48.06%	52.14%
Ottawa Senators	52.09%	54.30%	43.28%	51.08%
Philadelphia Flyers	49.07%	60.00%	41.59%	49.63%
Phoenix Coyotes	48.97%	53.87%	36.70%	48.06%
Pittsburgh Penguins	47.03%	54.27%	42.40%	47.53%
San Jose Sharks	51.55%	61.59%	42.78%	52.05%
St. Louis Blues	51.26%	51.05%	55.21%	51.76%
Tampa Bay Lightning	50.14%	56.70%	38.46%	49.46%
Toronto Maple Leafs	50.06%	56.39%	42.09%	49.98%
Vancouver Canucks	48.34%	55.26%	41.74%	48.38%
Washington Capitals	50.47%	52.44%	48.49%	50.43%
Grand Total	50.00%	56.04%	43.96%	50.00%

The Grand Total line does seem to indicate that teams on the power play fare better in the faceoff circle; this makes some sense, given the presence of at least one extra player who can gain possession of the puck after the drop. Taking this view does provide an additional perspective when thinking about what certain teams might try to acquire at the trade deadline. Just about every year, some team picks up a good faceoff guy (like Yannic Perrault), but when reviewing this data, which teams might need help in that area?

The overall laggards are Minnesota, Colorado, Pittsburgh and Buffalo, all below 48% in total. If you look at players who are likely to be acquired for their faceoff ability, however, most of those guys are defensive specialists, not the ones who get prime time on the power play. So, for example, the Nashville Predators (50.12%) and Anaheim Ducks (50.97%) which have won the fewest draws while on the power play, picking a specialist up in trade probably won't help there (although it might be worth considering, given how Anaheim is 23rd on the PP and Nashville is 27th).

It is perhaps more useful to focus on even-strength (where Buffalo, Minnesota and Pittsburgh all lag) and particularly shorthanded (with Phoenix, Colorado and Boston) situations to find teams that could both use and take advantage of help in the faceoff circle. You can also look at the Tampa Bay Lightning, who, at 49.46% overall, would appear to be in good shape, but when you examine their breakdown by situation, you'll see a lousy shorthanded performance. If they become sellers at the trade deadline they could look for a solid PK specialist who can win more of those draws and take some of the load off the Big Three (Lecavalier, Richards, and St. Louis).

The Red Wings boast a sizable lead at 54.7% of faceoffs won in total, including an outstanding figure of 54.07% in shorthanded situations (only St. Louis is also above the 50% mark while a man down). If the Blues and/or Blue Jackets fall out of the Western Conference playoff hunt might they be able to offer assets that could help teams like Colorado and Boston, which are in the midst of exceedingly tight playoff races? I'll leave that for Spector to ruminate on, but hopefully this provides some insight into how your favorite team is working the faceoff dot in various situations.

Labels: faceoffs, statistics

Is there Hope for decent hockey coverage in Nashville?

EDIT: The second quote below was not from Hope Hines, I misread the article and apologize for the error. The gist of the screed that follows still reflects how I believe Hines and other prominent sports media figures in Nashville treat the Predators and the NHL, however, so I'm leaving this up.

There's an interesting article over at the Nashville City Paper this morning about last Tuesday night's dual-bill in downtown Nashville, where both the Preds and the Vanderbilt men's basketball team drew big crowds and scored huge home victories. In terms of local TV ratings, however, Vandy had a huge edge over the Predators, pulling in a 5.5 rating vs. a 0.1 for the hockey game.

Somebody get this guy a clue!

What sticks out to me, however, are quotes from Hope Hines, the sports director for the local CBS affiliate here in Nashville, WTVF, talking about why his sports broadcast that night led with the Vanderbilt story rather than the Preds win:

“After being in this business for so many years, I just go on gut feel. You have to make a decision at some point, and apparently the viewership agreed with us.”

OK, that's fine, I understand that college basketball is very popular in this area, Vanderbilt's off to a great start, and that's why they led with the Commodores' win over Kentucky. But then there's this...

"I’m of the opinion that entertainment options – TV ratings aside – are healthy for a city. I don’t know anything about hockey (isn’t icing what you put on a cake?), but I believe Nashville is a better city with the Predators here." [EDIT: This quote isn't from Hines, it's from the author of the article, a Vanderbilt basketball reporter from the City Paper]

So let me get this straight. After 10 years of having an NHL team in Nashville, the sports director of a local TV station says with a straight face that he doesn't "know anything about hockey"? That's not just sad, it's downright frustrating. For a guy in his profession to maintain ignorance about hockey at this point requires a stubborn refusal to embrace the game or the local team. I work with corporate IT systems, and if I refused to get on board with a new technology being brought in, or a new way of doing our work, I'd expect to get fired, plain and simple, just like anybody else out there. Yet somehow Hope Hines cruises along while basically ignoring the team that brings more fans into the building each year than the NFL's Tennessee Titans. [EDIT: Obviously that quote doesn't fit here, but just listen to Hines muddle his way through Predators pieces and you'll see that the charge still sticks]

It's people like this that drive Predators' fans nuts over the dismal quality of local coverage the team and the sport receive. In too many cases, we have prominent members of the local sports media that continue to deliberately keep the NHL and the Predators at the bottom of the sports pile.

I would be remiss, of course, if I didn't point out that there are a few folks out there doing a better job. The print journalism has greatly improved over last season, stretching beyond mere game recaps and previews, and sometimes touching on league-wide issues. Over at WTVF, there's Eric Yutzy, a sports reporter who works under Hines and occasionally hosts a "Hockey Monday" show that devotes an hour to Predators and NHL discussion. On the radio side, Thom Abraham is a welcome addition in the afternoons over at 106.7, and despite a weak signal that fails to reach many of the suburbs, Thom tries to broaden the discussion beyond the Titans and Commodores. Heck, recently I heard him extolling the virtues of NHL Center Ice, and how he planned to catch that night's Bruins/Sabres game! That's what I'm talking about...

On the other hand, I would gladly bet $20 that the other main sports radio hosts or sports directors at the TV stations couldn't name five players on either of those teams.

As far as a solution goes, I can't imagine anything other than a concerted effort by the new ownership group to sell these influential figures on the game would help. I thought I saw a post recently on one of the message boards stating that some of them had been invited to the owner's suite for a game, which is a nice start, but I'd also recommend working with opposing teams that come to town as well as the NHL front office to perhaps line up high-profile individuals for interviews, like Wayne Gretzky when the Coyotes visit, or Brett Hull with the Dallas Stars. Fortunately the new ownership group is taking a fresh, hard-working approach to selling tickets and obtaining corporate sponsorships, and I'm hoping that a full-scale charm offensive might eventually make some difference with the sports media leadership as well. We can only Hope...

Labels: nashville predators

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Red Wings Sleep Through 1st Period, Preds Win

Some folks may have been checking their tickets in the first period tonight to make sure they said "Detroit Red Wings" as the opponent, as in the early going Detroit looked like anything but the team that's sacked & pillaged their way through the NHL. On their first shift, Jason Arnott, J.P. Dumont and Alexander Radulov out-muscled and out-hustled the Wings to put Nashville up 1-0 just 2:25 in. Dumont fed the puck off the boards to Arnott, who, while being checked, threw a shot on net. Radulov, who had just crossed in front of the crease to sneak in behind Nick Lidstrom, caught the puck before it got to Chris Osgood and pulled it over to the other side of the net before firing it home. A catfish hit the ice during the stoppage in play, and the Sommet Center crowd was on their feet.

They were barely done with their celebrating and "Osgood... Osgood... Osgood... You Suck!" chants when the Preds scored again to stretch the lead to 2-0. After a Greg de Vries shot from the left point sent the puck caroming around the boards, it came all the way to Dan Hamhuis at the right point, and Dallas Drake came in to jam it free and clear the zone. On the back end, the Wings defenders (Rafalski & Lebda) were already 10-15 feet ahead of two Nashville forwards in anticipation of a rush the other way, but Hamhuis not only kept the puck in, he fed it down to Martin Erat in the slot, who then had plenty of time for a little give-and-go with Rich Peverley that left Osgood sprawling while Erat fired a wrister over him easily for the score. I couldn't believe I was watching a Mike Babcock team, let alone the high-flying Red Wings. It looked more like beer-league action, where everyone wants to jump into the rush regardless of whether anyone's left in behind them.

One funny episode happened about 8 minutes in; as Lebda was Mallachi Crunched behind the net by Scott Nichol and Vern Fiddler, his stick got caught in a seam between panes of glass. A fan pulled it all the way through as play headed back the other way, and after play stopped, a ref came over and retrieved it to some scattered boos. Here's what I don't understand; if I'm at a hockey game, and I get an opposing player's stick like that, the proper thing to do is SMASH THE THING TO BITS. Don't just let him have it back!!!

Anyways, the party resumed shortly thereafter, as Marek Zidlicky found Arnott coming down the slot, and he was able to feed a wide-open J.P. Dumont off to Osgood's right for another easy goal, 3-0 Nashville. Jimmy Howard came into net in relief of Ozzie, but this was more about Babcock calling out his team than any issue with the goaltending. I don't think I've seen consecutive easier goals scored in a game for a looooooong time, let alone against the top team in the NHL. I thought some of the nervous rumblings on some of the Wings blogs must have been overblown, but now I think I understand some of their concern.

The 2nd period saw the Wings look more like their dangerous selves, putting 16 shots on net and scoring two impressive power play goals; in between, however, Radulov scored his second goal of the night on a thrilling rush into the zone. With Lidstrom pestering him from behind, A-Rad went to the backhand before tucking the puck through Howard's 5-hole to keep the Preds firmly in control of the game. Radulov has been on a huge roll of late, and is perhaps becoming the sort of prime-time scoring threat that Nashville fans have been hoping for.

Early in the 3rd, Valtteri Filppula drew a tripping call on Greg Zanon (and unbelievably didn't get called for diving at the same time), leading to a huge opportunity for Detroit to climb back within one. Chris Mason stood strong in net on a couple good chances for Filppula and Tomas Holmstrom, allowing the Preds to kill that penalty off leaving 15 minutes left in the game. The Red Wings kept firing away, with 42 shots in total for the game, but the Preds held their ground and picked up 2 gigantic points in the standings.

As any of the contenders look at their upcoming schedules, not many assume that they'll earn points against Detroit along the way. I recently looked at the current 9-game, 15 day segment of the schedule and said that if Nashville earned 11 points they'd be in good shape; so far, the've earned 4 points in the first three games, a nice start for sure. Up next is Chicago at home on Valentine's Day. Here's hoping the Blackhawks are in a lovin', not a fightin' mood.

Labels: detroit red wings, nashville predators

Beware of Juggernaut

The NHL's unstoppable force comes rolling into Nashville this evening as the Detroit Red Wings bring their gaudy 41-12-5 record into the Sommet Center against the Predators (29-22-6). But before abandoning any hope of a competitive chance for the local boys, it should be noted that when looking at Detroit's 7-2-1 record over the last ten games, the "2-1" part has come in their last three, with losses to Los Angeles, Toronto (in OT) and Anaheim in recent days. In their three previous games this season, Nashville has a 1-1-1 record against the Central Division leaders.

Mike Babcock's charges have been storming through the NHL so far

The Wings are somewhat bruised and battered coming in, with 20-goal scorer Dan Cleary out due to a broken jaw, and defenseman Niklas Kronwall on the IR (again). Dominik Hasek is having hip trouble, so you can expect to see Chris Osgood in goal tonight. For the Predators, Chris Mason is expected to get the start; he has been excellent since recovering from a nasty bug that wiped out his December (.930 save percentage and three shutouts since January 8). It will be interesting to see who gets to play on defense, as illness caused Dan Hamhuis to miss the Phoenix game on Sunday, giving Ville Koistinen his first action in quite some time. Up front, it is hoped that Martin Erat will return from the back spasms that have kept him out, and Jordin Tootoo is still recovering from his hip flexor injury.

My fervent hope is that Koistinen gets back into the mix, as he provided a much-needed boost to the Predators attack, particularly on the power play, in his earlier games. I'd let Greg Zanon, who's in a bit of a funk right now defensively, watch a couple games from the press box. But hey, I'm not the one paid to make those decisions.

The key for Nashville tonight will be line matching; if Barry Trotz can keep the Arnott/Dumont/Radulov line away from the top Detroit defensive pairing of Nick Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski, they may be able to generate enough offense to give the Preds a fighting chance. But what about the other end? By looking at the three previous matches using the wonderful tools available at Time On Ice.com, it looks like in home games (when he has the advantage of making the last line change prior to faceoffs), Trotz likes to use the Bonk/Smithson/Ortmeyer combo against Pavel Datsyuk's line the most, and they've been able to keep Datsyuk's line off the scoresheet at even strength during that time.

With Cleary hurt, Wings fans are dreading a too-heavy scoring concentration on that top line of Datsyuk between Henrik Zetterberg and Tomas Holmstrom, but when you're humming along with the #2 offense in the NHL, behind only Ottawa, I think perhaps those concerns are overblown.

And if you follow that "#2 offense" link, take a gander and see who's got the #2 offense in the Western Conference. The answer might surprise you.

It should be a doozy of a game, as the Predators need every point they can get to keep pace with the playoff contenders, while the Red Wings are anxious to stop their losing streak. For the Detroiter's view of tonight's game, head over to On the Wings. And while watching those out-of-town scores this evening, pull for Los Angeles over St. Louis, Edmonton over Minnesota, San Jose over Calgary, and just cross your fingers that Anaheim/Colorado doesn't go to overtime...

Labels: nashville predators

Monday, February 11, 2008

Carolina Hurricanes: 2nd in the Southeast, 1st to throw in the towel

Well, we can truly say the NHL's Trade Deadline extravaganza is now underway, as the Carolina Hurricanes have sent defenseman Mike Commodore and winger Cory Stillman to Ottawa, in exchange for Joe Corvo and Patrick Eaves. While Corvo should make a nice fixture on the Carolina blue line for quite some time, Eaves, Commodore and Stillman all have contracts expiring this summer, a clear case of Ottawa loading up on short-term present value (a scorer and steady defense) at the expense of giving up a good young defenseman who's still signed for two more seasons.

"The board is set... the pieces are moving..."

The question now is whether other general managers around the league will start making deals as well, since the "Top Six Forward" market just got a little bit smaller. For someone like Nashville Predators GM David Poile, who is presumably shopping at the lower end of that market (as opposed to swinging for the home runs like Marian Hossa), Stillman would have made a sensible acquisition; a veteran sniper who becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season, and has scored consistently for four different NHL teams (which reduces the risk that he's a product of a given coach or set of teammates, and can produce on a new team quickly). As the number of such available players declines, the cost for the remaining GM's who are shopping will only rise.

So who's left to fill that kind of profile? My prime candidate is (and has been for a few weeks now) Vaclav Prospal of the Tampa Bay Lightning; Preds fans might recall him as the guy who scored an overtime winner for the Lightning here in Nashville last week. There's Michael Ryder in Montreal, but the fact that his goal-scoring has fallen off a cliff this year can't make a GM feel good about swapping much of value in return. Now that the Islanders are slipping beneath the waves in the East, perhaps Miro Satan might become available; he's been dinged up, but if healthy, could really bolster the Predators up front. Poile has already mentioned that he's not interested with trading away any of his upcoming Restricted Free Agents, so don't look for any "Ryan Suter for [insert All-Star caliber winger]" deals.

So now we've seen the first move in what should be a wild swap meet between NHL general managers. Despite all the nay-saying about salary caps and parity in the standings, when the pressure builds and the deadline approaches, these guys inevitably loosen their collars and start peddling the flesh like crazed addicts. And we get to watch!

Labels: trades

Here, Here, The Gang's All Here

Well, the Fortnight of Doom got off to a decent start over the weekend, as the Predators managed a couple points out of road games in San Jose and Phoenix. Seemingly on request, the secondary scoring appears to have returned, as Vern Fiddler scored twice and added an assist in a 4-3 loss to the Sharks (foolish me, I wasn't playing him on my fantasy hockey team that night), and several players chipped in with goals (including Legwand, Bonk, and Peverley) in last night's 6-3 victory over the Coyotes.

Next up, a Tuesday night date with the Detroit Red Wings, who, although by far the hottest team in the league this year, have lost three straight including Sunday's loss to the Anaheim Ducks.

The story around the NHL yesterday, obviously, was the horrible injury to Florida's Richard Zednik, who took a skate to the neck and bled profusely as medical staff rushed to get him to the hospital. Thankfully he's doing well after surgery, but it's odd how many similar situations have occured this year, as linesman Pat Dapuzzo was also hit by a skate in Saturday's Flyers/Rangers game, and Vancouver's Kevin Bieksa's leg was severely cut by Vern Fiddler's skate when the Predators played the Canucks. These are all too painful reminders of just how dangerous the game of hockey can truly be...

Labels: nashville predators

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Won't you people ever learn?

I've tried to help you people think more analytically about the game of hockey, but sometimes I wonder if the message is ever going to get through. I've laid out that fact that there's a significant lefty/righty matchup advantage to be exploited in the shootout, that indicators like Goals For & Against are perhaps a better barometer of team success than standings points, and that penalties taken & drawn are hugely important, and under-appreciated.

Yet I don't think that statistically-driven analysis has taken the NHL by storm. TV Analysts drone on with their bland, uninsightful comments and ignorant fans accept them on blind faith because they don't know any better.

Perhaps it's time to take another tack, using video instruction to drive the point home:

There, that oughta do it. I expect those job offers for Director of Quantitative Analysis will be landing on my doorstep shortly...

Tip o' the Hat to the guys at On Frozen Blog for uploading this to YouTube. When we saw this on the NHL Network, Mrs. Forechecker immediately said "you've GOT to post that..."

Labels: statistics

Friday, February 08, 2008

Sing on, brother...

Terry Frei gets it. Late in a tie game, let's have NHL head coaches thinking about how they can go out and win the game, rather than how not to lose it before they get a standings point for making it to overtime.

Barry Trotz and the Fortnight of Doom

After dropping a 2-1 overtime decision to the Tampa Bay Lightning Thursday night (with all due respect, Mr. Poile, how did you let Vaclav Prospal leave on Tampa's team plane?), the Preds are about to go through a brutal 9-game, 15-day stretch against other Western Conference teams that leads right up to the NHL Trading Deadline, and represents one third of their remaning regular season schedule. In detail, we have the following:

Saturday 2/9 @ San Jose

Sunday 2/10 @ Phoenix

Tuesday 2/12 vs. Detroit

Thursday 2/14 vs. Chicago

Saturday 2/16 vs. St. Louis

Sunday 2/17 @ Minnesota

Tuesday 2/19 vs. Edmonton

Thursday 2/21 vs. Vancouver

Saturday 2/23 vs. Dallas

Of that group, only Chicago and Edmonton are starting to slip away from playoff contention, so the games will be just as meaningful to the opposition as they are to Nashville. To me, the question that hangs over the team right now is where the secondary scoring has gone, and whether David Poile will attempt to acquire some help there at any point before February 26, which is the deadline day. In each of their last two games the Predators have scored only once, with both goals coming from the Radulov-Arnott-Dumont line. Their consistent production has been fantastic, but after that Nashville's options get pretty thin.

Martin Erat left the Lightning game with back spasms, but according to a radio report he did travel with the team to San Jose so hopefully he won't miss any action. David Legwand's 12 goals this season are a bit of a disappointment, and Radek Bonk (who was so hot early on) hasn't scored a goal since December 19 in Chicago, and he's not shutting opponents down, either. Right now the 3rd and 4th lines aren't chipping in offensively, and that's got to change soon; if that top line goes into any kind of funk the Preds could hit the skids quickly, and with the intensity of competition in the Western Conference there's no margin for the sort of losing streaks this team was prone to earlier on.

The good news is that the goaltending has been excellent of late, whether with Chris Mason or Dan Ellis in net, so the workload shouldn't be a problem this month as they've been comfortable switching in and out of the net as Barry Trotz sees fit. I would expect that Ellis will get starts each of the next two weekends, with perhaps another game thrown into the mix. On defense, the eight players on the active roster will presumably all see action, to keep the legs fresh and encourage competition among them for playing time. In particular, it will be interesting to see when Ville Koistinen returns to the ice, as he's been a healthy scratch in recent games and provided some offensive boost previously.

All in all, it'll be a hectic two weeks as the Preds battle for precious points, fans watch the scoreboard and hope other games don't go to overtime (I'll say it again, the OTL point is the dumbest rule in professional sports), and everyone keeps an ear to the ground for trade news. If Nashville can hit the trade deadline having earned 11 of the 18 possible points in these games, they should find themselves in position for a 5th-7th spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Nobody wants to land in 8th considering the way the Red Wings are playing these days.

Beware the Stench

A quick tip this morning to a fine article over at the New York Times, examining one of hockey's most peculiar tactics: the face wash. Rubbing your glove in an opponent's face is a time-honored means of goading them into taking a penalty or otherwise reacting foolishly, and when done by a seasoned master, it can turn the tide of a game.

I know when I started playing adult rec hockey we had a decent team made up of mostly young 20-somethings who were just full of enthusiasm, and we had a great time, but there was always one team made up of a bunch older guys that gave us fits. You'd battle along the boards for a puck, and one of them would place his hand on you just briefly enough to cause you to react, and that gave him the space he needed to swipe the puck and make a play.

Now, as I zoom through my late-30's, it's time for me to turn the tables and do the same to players younger, faster, and more energetic than myself. For those of you who've never had the pleasure of playing the game or having a child who plays, trust me when I say that there are few, if any, fouler things in the world then "The Stench", the vile fumes that emanate from a dank, sweaty hockey glove.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

What Dion Phaneuf's New Contract Means for Nashville

With Calgary's Dion Phaneuf signing a 6-year, $39 million contract extension, speculation around Nashville naturally turns to Shea Weber, the young defenseman who is expected to fill a Phaneuf-like role on the Predators for years to come. Weber, like Phaneuf, is a 3rd-year player with good size, a booming shot from the point, and plays with an edge that thrills fans and intimidates opponents. Nashville GM David Poile has gone on record repeatedly saying that he will re-sign Weber and not allow him to leave as a Restricted Free Agent this summer, so what does the Phaneuf contract mean in terms of how much this will cost?

Clearly, there are a number of similarities between these two young stars. Take, for example, the Scouting Reports from TSN:

Assets: Hits everything that moves. Owns a big shot from the point and isn't shy about unleashing it. Displays all-around ability. Is the total package.

Flaws: Must continue to improve his defensive-zone coverage, which isn't terrible but could use more work. Can be a little too exhuberant at times.

Career potential: No. 1 defenseman.

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Assets: Owns all-around potential. Has both the size and mean streak to keep skill players honest. Can unleash a big-time point shot and log a lot of ice time.

Flaws: Must curb his propensity to run around the defensive zone in search of the big hit. Needs to stay out of the penalty box in order to maximize potential.

Career potential: Top pairing defenseman.

The first there is Phaneuf's, the second Weber's. Both were taken in the 2003 draft, Phaneuf being the 7th selection in the first round, Weber taken in the second at #49. Last season, each of them scored 17 goals, and posted fairly similar statistics overall:

Phaneuf: 79 GP, 17 G, 33 A, +10, 98 PIM
Weber: 79 GP, 17 G, 23 A, +13, 60 PIM

So can Weber expect a contract similar to what Phaneuf just received? That wouldn't appear to be the case. Phaneuf has been consistently productive since first stepping into the league, scoring 20 goals his rookie season and making the All-Star team each of the last two years. In short, he's been performing at a high level right from the start. Weber, on the other hand, had a relatively mortal rookie season, and the first half of this year was basically a wash due to injury. Since returning to the lineup in late December he's played quite well, but needs to keep that up the rest of the way. Weber's book is still being written, whereas with Phaneuf, after three seasons of consistent performance you have a much clearer picture of what he can offer in the long term.

If not 6 years and $39 million, then, what would seem to make sense for Shea Weber? First off, I would expect him to go for a shorter-term contract, reasoning that the next few years should see greater production than seen so far, setting him up for an even larger contract down the road (and allowing some time for the rising tide of the overall NHL salary structure, which appears inevitable). A four-year contract would take him through to the point where he could become an Unrestricted Free Agent, for example, and might lead to the biggest payday in his next deal.

In terms of salary, what players make the most sense to compare Weber to? Let's look at a couple young defensemen and their second NHL contracts. Ryan Whitney in Pittsburgh, for example, is tied up for several years at $4 million per, but is more of a puck-moving force, picking up assists at twice the pace Weber does. What about Vancouver's Kevin Bieksa? He's averaging $3.75 million for the next three years, and has followed a similar career trajectory so far; learning the ropes his rookie year, then topping the 40-point mark in 2006-7 only to suffer injury troubles this season. Bieksa tends to take more penalties that either Weber or Whitney, but overall, I'd say these are relatively comparable players.

Perhaps, then, something like a 4-year, $15-16 million extension (hmm... where have we seen that before?) makes sense for both sides. For Weber, it allows him to cash in today while taking him right up to the point where he can be a 26 year-old unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2012, in the perfect position to land a major deal if that's what he desires. For Poile, it solidies a major component on his roster for several seasons, and in return for not locking up any of Weber's UFA time, might save him a bit in yearly salary until then. It's important to note that with 28 games left in the regular season (and possibly playoffs as well), Weber still has an opportunity to prove he deserves more. But for now, it looks like Phaneuf-like money is out of his reach.

Labels: nashville predators

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Notes From the Town Hall

Before Tuesday's 1-0 victory over the Carolina Hurricanes, the Nashville Predators senior management (Chairman/Owner David Freeman, GM David Poile, and President of Business Operations Ed Lang), joined by NHL Commissioner Gary Betttman, conducted a town hall meeting with Predators season ticket holders. Questions were submitted just prior to the session, goodie bags of memorabilia celebrating 10 years of NHL hockey in Nashville were given away (one of which was won by Yours Truly*), and the guys in the suits conducted a frank and insightful discussion on where things stand with the Predators today, and where they and the NHL are headed. Video of the event is going to be posted on the team's website sometime next week, but until then, what follows is a rough recap.

"Say, Mr. Bettman, what can we do about eliminating that OTL point?"

At first, Freeman, Poile and Lang sat at the table up front and Lang addressed the crowd, thanking them for their support and recounting his 10 years with the club. He recognized the team's need to grow the fan base, and said that a new marketing agency has been hired and that they are in the process of developing a new marketing plan. I can tell you that since I moved to Nashville in September 2005 I have been constantly underwhelmed by the Predators marketing effort, so this is definitely welcome news. Lang also mentioned that they are in the process of reviewing all aspects of the Predators' business operations, and are placing a priority on establishing outstanding customer service. The Predators mentioned that even though they could only answer a portion of the submitted questions during the Town Hall meeting, they promised to get back in touch with people on an individual basis relative to their questions, and some people on the Predators Message Boards have already been contacted, so apparently that customer service effort is a sincere one.

David Poile then took his turn, and in one of the best sound bites from the session, referred to last summer's salary purge and franchise instability by simply stating, "It's over." He's been working with David Freeman on a 3-5 year plan for the organization, and has been talking with player agents about resigning the players eligible for Group 2 Free Agency this summer (Ryan Suter, Shea Weber, Martin Erat). He fully expects to get them signed, but sees that happening during the offseason rather than at the present time. He sounded very firm when he also said, "Last summer was a blip, we're committed and are going to build this team."

At this point Gary Bettman strolled in and joined the head table to a standing ovation from the crowd (I'm sure he doesn't see too many of those). The commissioner seemed genuinely appreciative, and affirmed that when it came to the events surrounding the franchise sale, "We were right, and it was worth it." Bettman's actual role in blocking the Balsillie deal and steering things towards local ownership remains murky and unclear, but (and this is pure speculation on my part, I have no inside info) my feeling all along is that Balsillie's "Hamilton Predators" stunt set off alarm bells at NHL Headquarters, in the sense that the city of Nashville could well have pursued legal angles against Balsillie for failure to live up to the terms of the Sommet Center lease, and set a dangerous precedent within the broader NHL community. Anyways, enough of my feverish visions, back to the Town Hall...

Poile resumed his comments by saying that the team's future is bright, he plans to continue building through the draft, mentioned that signing J.P. Dumont to a contract extension during the season was important to remove speculation about his status leading up to the trade deadline, and send a clear signal to the rest of the league that the team is committed to winning. That only makes Nashville that much more attractive to other players they might like to acquire.

Freeman then took his opportunity to thank the fans for their support of the team, which gave Bettman a chance to jump in as well, saying "When the media in other places maligned you (Nashville hockey fans), it just wasn't right, it just wasn't fair." It's nice to hear someone outside of Nashville recognize this, that's for sure.

With the opening remarks concluded, it got down to the Q&A:

First, a question about the status of the Sommet Center lease negotiations went to David Freeman. He emphasized that the deal is done, and not to worry about the time it's taken to complete all the proceedings and approvals. The management has been focused on assuming the reins of the team and selling tickets, and that it's often difficult to work on those kinds of issues during the middle of the season. Gary Bettman also noted that he met with Mayor Karl Dean earlier that day, and was confident the deal would be completed.

Next, a question to Bettman about getting an All-Star Weekend for Nashville. The Commissioner cited three obstacles to overcome there; completion of a new convention center downtown (years off), growing the hotel room capacity near the arena to accomodate 5,000-7,000 visitors (the Opry Mills complex is too far out from downtown), and of course building the local fan base to where sellouts are more of a regularity. It was a very cordial way of saying, "don't plan on it anytime soon."

David Freeman was then asked about the response of the corporate community (long noted as a weak spot for the team) to his sales and marketing efforts, and he was quite positive on that front. The Taco Bell promotion whereby game tickets are worth a free taco when the Pred score 5 goals at home has been restored (a huge hit with fans), and HCA recently bought thousands of tickets to upcoming games.

David Poile took a question about whether the Preds will pick up something at the trade deadline, and could only say that there are GM meetings coming up next week, so that's likely to see some action, although given the tightness in the standings it's tough to find trading partners right now. He also re-emphasized that he doesn't want to trade any of his upcoming RFA's, so take Weber, Suter and Erat off your trade rumor listings...

Then a voice called out from the crowd, "what about Forsberg?" Poile hesitated slightly and checked with Freeman before proceeding with, "You want the truth?" He recounted his conversation with Forsberg's agent, detailing the "unfinished business" from last year and the opportunity to join the Predators for a playoff run, but word had come back earlier that afternoon that Forsberg was going to pass on Nashville as his destination for 2008. The crowd groaned, but Poile stressed his confidence in the current roster, his belief that they would play better in the 2nd half than they did in the first, and his sense that they can establish a competitive foundation for years to come around their core group of young players.

Next came a question about tying in more closely with youth hockey in the area, and Ed Lang was very enthusiastic on that point. He talked about the fact that currently there are only 4 sheets of ice around Nashville and that some people are looking to address that situation, and that his group is looking at Dallas and Columbus as two examples of franchises that have done a good job of reaching out and establishing strong two-way ties with the youth hockey scene.

One fan in the crowd then asked about the 13-year contract given to Alex Ovechkin in Washington, wondering "what was the lockout for?" Bettman gave a thorough, thoughtful answer: salaries are tied to hockey revenues, so if the team wants to lock up a good portion of their salary cap around one player for that long a time, that's basically their business. He speculated that if he was a GM he'd prefer to work with shorter-term deals to maintain flexibility, and that such long-term contracts run the risk of either over- or under-valuing a player after a certain point in time.

After the session wrapped up, I approached the front table and watched as one fan asked about the point awarded in the standings for OT/SO losses, and Bettman's answer there was less convincing. Personally, I think the NHL has gotten too clever by half on this front, and should just go to Wins and Losses, plain and simple.

I took the chance to ask if there was any standardization or review of the Real Time Scorers, the folks who tally Hits, Giveaways, Takeaways, etc., as those stats seem to vary widely according to what arena a game is played in. Instead of directly answering the question (as to whether there's a process like there is with referees to standardize performance), he talked about the reasons that games can take on a different flavor in different rinks, such as how teams play on the road vs. at home, or player matchups given the home team getting the last line change. It wasn't a great answer, but given the barrage of folks that were firing away, it was understandable.

Overall, it was a worthwhile event to attend. The Predators organization as a whole seems very open-minded and eager to engage the community in building their long-term future here, which is refreshing to see. Having grown up in the Detroit area, I can't imagine the Red Wings holding anything similar to this. I've watched that team go from the outhouse to the penthouse of the NHL over the last 30+ years, and there's just a different feel to that organization, as if you'd have to scale Mt. Olympus to get that kind of interaction (or is that Mt. Olympia?).

*And now, the Little Forecheckers can measure their height against a vintage Mike Dunham growth chart that'll go up on the wall in the garage...

Ryan Suter, Live on Stage

I just wanted to pop up a pointer to a nice article by John Glennon (Predators beat writer for the Tennessean) in this month's USA Hockey magazine, about the development of Ryan Suter into a regular, productive NHL defenseman. While occasional miscues drive some fans to fits and have them musing about what he might bring in trade, it's worth remembering that Suter just turned 23, and is currently in only his 3rd NHL season.

Ryan Suter in USA Hockey Magazine article

Suter on stage at the Ryman Auditorium in Nashville

In spite of a few setbacks (such as the Brendan Witt trade in 2006 that cost him playoff playing time), Suter's improved each year so far, and looks to be a capable top-four defenseman for years to come. Assuming GM David Poile locks up this pending Restricted Free Agent in a new contract, he'll be a key player in a deep, talented blue line corps that already has Dan Hamhuis, Marek Zidlicky, Greg de Vries and Greg Zanon locked up through next season (Hamhuis and Zidlicky are signed through 2009-10 as well), and as the cherry on top, it's expected that Shea Weber will be signed, too. Just as in the 80's with his Washington Capitals teams, Poile has stocked his cupboard full of quality defensemen, even in spite of having to trade former captain Kimmo Timonen in last summer's salary purge.

Forget the Hurricanes, Beware the Tornadoes

You can rest assured that I won't make any puns regarding the Tampa Bay hockey team that's coming into Nashville tomorrow night to face the Predators. After titling yesterday's Carolina-Nashville pregame post "Hurricane Warning for Middle Tennessee", we had severe thunderstorms and tornados rip through the area, killing 26 throughout Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky, and causing widespread damage to homes and businesses. In the late stages of the 3rd period last night huge thunderclaps were heard inside the Sommet Center, and after the game concluded fans were not allowed to leave due to a Tornado Warning that was in effect for downtown Nashville, so I and 13,948 of my closest friends hung out for a while on the concourse and waited for things to pass.

As to the game itself, it was as exciting a 1-0 game as one could hope for. There was plenty of offense from both teams, but Cam Ward and Chris Mason (3rd and 1st Star, respectively) were outstanding, not just stopping initial shots but bottling up rebounds for the most part as well. Alexander Radulov had a couple good looks that either failed to connect or were turned aside by Ward, and Mason was extremely sharp, particularly on one play in the second period when the puck was behind the Nashville net, and the play suddenly reversed; Mason had to lunge quickly to cover his right post and shut down a stuff attempt by one of the Hurricanes.

Interestingly, the winning goal got launched by a big defensive play. Marek Zidlicky stepped up and levelled Eric Staal near the Nashville blue line (yes, you read that right), which provided the opportunity for a 3-on-1 the other way, with Radulov coming up the middle, Jason Arnott on the right, and J.P. Dumont on the left. The Predators' offensive leaders closed the deal, with Radulov dishing off to Arnott, then Arnott sending a cross-crease pass to Dumont who redirected the puck past a helpless Cam Ward.

In terms of matchups, you should check out Vic Ferrari's Time On Ice tool, which tells us that the Dan Hamhuis/Greg de Vries pairing got the bulk of the work against Rod Brind'Amour, Sergei Samsonov, and Erik Cole, while Shea Weber and Greg Zanon worked against the Whitney/Staal/Stillman line. Marek Zidlicky and Ryan Suter were spotted against the more pedestrian Carolina forwards.

I'll follow up later today with a report on the Town Hall meeting that was held before the game. Until then, keep the folks who've been hit hard by last night's storms in your thoughts.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

No Foppa for Nashville

A quick note from the Predators Town Hall meeting!

GM David Poile announced that he just heard back from Peter Forsberg's agent this afternoon, and Forsberg has passed on coming back to the Predators. The crowd let out a bit of a groan, but Poile's overall message about the team was very positive. More to follow tomorrow...

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Hurricane Warning For Middle Tennessee

Run for your lives! Baton down the hatches! Hurricanes this evening in Nashville!

Sure, none of that stuff makes sense in light of tonight's Predators/Hurricanes matchup at the Sommet Center, but neither do many of the recent rumors being floated that Nashville GM David Poile is looking to make a play for Carolina winger Erik Cole, who, while touted as a premier power forward and goal scorer, only has one 30-goal season to his credit and has a $4 million contract that runs through next season. He's certainly a decent player, but I'd be concerned about how much tread is left on his tires, particularly after a nasty neck injury in 2006 that put him on the shelf for a considerable time. That, coupled with a shooting percentage this year that's less than half what he's put up the last three seasons, leads me to believe that perhaps Mr. Cole's best NHL days are behind him.

The Carolina side isn't exactly thrilled about the prospect of a deal either, as outlined over at Red & Black Hockey. The last thing they need is a young, raw defenseman who's not ready for prime-time action (Kevin Klein is the oft-rumored option), and Nashville surely wouldn't part with an offensively oriented forward either.

No matter the trade talk, it should be an interesting game tonight. Carolina has offensive punch but gives up goals in bunches, while the Predators have tightened things up in their own end, and are producing goals at a decent clip recently. Jason Arnott is expected back in the lineup after missing the Phoenix game Saturday, which allows Radek Bonk to slide back into his 3rd-line duties, although he did a credible job subbing for Arnott on the top line for one game. J.P. Dumont's point-scoring streak ended at 16 games, so tonight's a good time to start a new one, while Alexander Radulov has scored a goal in six straight.

Perhaps the more interesting news is that prior to the game, Predators senior management and NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman will be conducting a Town Hall meeting to discuss the state and future direction of the team. I hope to provide a recap on this tomorrow.

Monday, February 04, 2008

Penalty Plus/Minus - The Trade Deadline Version

For general managers looking to beef up their rosters before the February 26 NHL Trading Deadline, there are plenty of factors to consider already; positional fit, contract status, goal-scoring, etc. In addition to those elements, however, how might a potential acquisition generate power play opportunities for their new team, or to look at it another way, will they leave them shorthanded by constant trips to the penalty box? Outside of goals being scored for or against, penalties are perhaps the most significant events in a given hockey game, so an understanding of how often players commit penalties (or draw them from the opposition) provides a more thorough understanding of the value they provide.

That's where the Penalty Plus/Minus statistic comes in. I've updated the numbers over at this publicly-available spreadsheet through the Rangers-Canadiens tilt just prior to yesterday's Super Bowl, and there are some interesting figures in there relative to players rumored to be available in the next few weeks. The following players are currently listed on TSN's Dirt Sheet as likely suspects (take with appropriate size grain of salt), so here they are, along with Penalties Drawn, Penalties Committed, and (thus) Penalty Plus/Minus. Goaltenders have been excluded.

Mats Sundin: 26 Drawn, 19 Committed, +7. Fine numbers for the Maple Leafs captain. Not league-leading by any stretch, but solid nonetheless.

Marian Hossa: 26 Drawn, 12 Committed, +14. Excellent numbers for the Atlanta RW, 2nd behind Ilya Kovalchuk's +17 on the team.

Brian Campbell: 7 Drawn, 3 Committed, +4. These are actually excellent numbers for a defenseman. Blueliners typically go negative in this stat, because they often have to Hold or Hook an opposing forward who has beaten them, so Campbell's doing quite well on this score.

Rob Blake: 4 Drawn, 28 Committed, -24. Yikes! Blake's -24 is tied for 2nd worst in the NHL, behind only Florida's Ruslan Salei at -27. Now granted, Blake plays major minutes for a lousy team, but this should make any inquiring GM take a hard look at why he's spending so much time in the box.

Vaclav Prospal: 17 Drawn, 17 Committed, 0. You'd like to see your offensively-oriented forwards on the positive side of this measure, so Prospal doesn't stand out here. At least he's not sharply negative.

Dan Boyle: 1 Drawn, 3 Committed, -2: Boyle has only played 8 games so far this year, so not much can be said for this result.

Olli Jokinen: 25 Drawn, 22 Committed, +3. Not the greatest of numbers for a stud #1 centerman, but like Prospal, at least he's not hurting his squad too much.

Alex Tanguay: 12 Drawn, 17 Committed, -5. Tsk, tsk, tsk, Mr. Tanguay. Watch that temper of yours! Jarome Iginla leads the Flames with a +11 rating, so don't tell us that drawing attention from the opposing D is too much for you to stand.

Michael Ryder: 14 Drawn, 9 Committed, +5: While the goals aren't going in for Ryder this year, at least he's generating a few PP opportunities for his teammates. An adventuresome GM gambling on Ryder to regain his scoring touch could use this as further incentive to make a deal.

Marek Malik: 4 Drawn, 15 Committed, -11. It's pretty typical for a defensive defenseman to be on the negative side of this mark, you know what you're getting here.

Jarret Stoll: 17 Drawn, 22 Committed, -5. Stoll's -5 is worst among Edmonton's forwards, and if he's brought in to add two-way responsibility to a team's lineup, he can't do that very well from the penalty box.

Darryl Sydor: 8 Drawn, 7 Committed, +1. For any defenseman to come out positive in this measure is a real benefit (the average across all D is -5.5). Stay tuned, however, there's more to come below.

Patrick Marleau: 15 Drawn, 8 Committed, +7. Solid numbers for the veteran center, but I just don't see him being dealt after signing an extension this last summer.

John-Michael Liles: 15 Drawn, 7 Committed, +8. Liles' +8 is 2nd among NHL defenseman to Daniel Girardi of the New York Rangers. Any team looking to acquire Liles is hoping to see him work the power play, and he'll create a few of those opportunities himself.

Jaromir Jagr: 24 Drawn, 21 Committed, +3. The Moody One is drawing a decent number of calls, but committing quite a few as well, negating that advantage.

Glen Murray: 7 Drawn, 12 Committed, -5. Doesn't draw many penalties from his opponents, but he's been such a reliable scorer for so long that he's still a highly coveted player.

Friday, February 01, 2008

Another day, another signing

On the heels of a convincing 4-2 victory over Columbus last night, the Predators message boards lit up with a rumor first posted during the game that J.P. Dumont had come to terms on an extension to stay in Nashville. TSN is now reporting this as well, four years for $16 million.

J.P. Dumont, Nashville Predators Right Wing

Sorry, playoff contenders, hands off our UFA!

(Photo Jon Swenson/Sharkspage.com)

One of the hottest players in the NHL in recent weeks, #71 is riding a 16-game point-scoring streak, including two assists last night. He's enjoying a stellar season, on track for 28 goals and 71 points, both of which would be career-highs. and has helped ignite Nashville's leading goal-scorer, Alexander Radulov, who has blossomed since joining Dumont and Jason Arnott on the top line.

I'm sure this signing comes as a crushing blow to guru's like ESPN's Scott Burnside, who recently wrote, "does Dumont want to stick around a team that has a limited future in Nashville?" Methinks Dumont and his agent have a better understanding of the Predators future in Nashville than a sportswriter in another city, Mr. Burnside. Had he tested the waters of free agency, it's quite likely that Dumont could have gotten more money elsewhere.

The new ownership group is doing all the right things so far, locking up David Legwand, Jordin Tootoo, and now J.P. Dumont to contract extensions. They've been going back to basics in terms of marketing and promotions (eliminating the Premium Plus pricing, introducing new options like the Family Pack and Captain's Pack), and have reached out to the community by holding nights honoring local high school championship sports teams. There's no single stroke that will ensure continuous sellouts in Nashville, but the new regime is turning it around and heading in a very positive direction.

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Friday, February 29, 2008

Preds Owners Submit Lease for Approval

Catch The Rocket

Thursday, February 28, 2008

The Road To The Playoffs Takes A Turn

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Preds Torched in Buffalo

Predators Ride Into Buffalo

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

I'm guessing David Poile slept in...

Just a few hours left, NHL shoppers!

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Work That Red Carpet, Baby!

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Leggy Boozes It, Preds Lose It

Friday, February 22, 2008

You Gonna Window Shop All Day, Or What?

Swedish Twins Stink It Up, But Luongo Saves The Day

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Pound Away For Those Rebounds

Fab Forecheckers Flying High

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Who's up for a nice, juicy contract?

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Those Oilers Just Don't Go Away Quietly

Jumping on the Meme Train (Book 123)

What the NHL might learn from College Hockey

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Taking in the good old (college) hockey game

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Blackhawks 6, Predators 1

Who Needs Help in the Faceoff Circle

Is there Hope for decent hockey coverage in Nashville?

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Red Wings Sleep Through 1st Period, Preds Win

Beware of Juggernaut

Monday, February 11, 2008

Carolina Hurricanes: 2nd in the Southeast, 1st to throw in the towel

Here, Here, The Gang's All Here

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Won't you people ever learn?

Friday, February 08, 2008

Sing on, brother...

Barry Trotz and the Fortnight of Doom

Beware the Stench

Thursday, February 07, 2008

What Dion Phaneuf's New Contract Means for Nashville

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Notes From the Town Hall

Ryan Suter, Live on Stage

Forget the Hurricanes, Beware the Tornadoes

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

No Foppa for Nashville

Hurricane Warning For Middle Tennessee

Monday, February 04, 2008

Penalty Plus/Minus - The Trade Deadline Version

Friday, February 01, 2008

Another day, another signing