Moved

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Predators GM David Poile shafts the media

Word came today that Predators agitator Jordin Tootoo signed a two-year contract extension, for $1.95 million total. It's a well-deserved extension, as Toots has rounded out his game admirably this season, and has been at the top of the Predators in terms of Penalty Plus/Minus, meaning that he's added discipline to his aggressive physical game. Newspaper editors everywhere will surely be chastising general manager David Poile for being so stingy he couldn't cough up a mere $50K more, so that the headlines could read, "Tootoo Gets Two For Two."

Jordin Tootoo of the Nashville Predators

Mrs. Forechecker and I are going to have get a babysitter and head out for a nice dinner Saturday night, which is Tootoo's birthday (February 2nd, or 2/2, don't you know?). No, we're not obsessed fans of #22, that's just the anniversary of the day we met ages ago, so we always celebrate Groundhog's Day rather than Valentines Day.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Four Goalies That Handle A Heavy Load, And One That Doesn't

Today's analysis was inspired by a comment left here by Magicpie over at Nucksblog, who wondered whether some NHL goaltenders perform better when they face more shots. That's certainly part of the Common Wisdom of hockey, and when asked, just about every goaltender admits that facing frequent pressure helps them stay focused. But in the final analysis, does this really hold true?

I went back through the game-by-game details for #1 goaltenders over the last two full seasons, to find out which guys fare better facing a ton of shots, and which ones wilt under the pressure. The measurements presented in the graphs below represent Save Percentage for each game, measured against the average Time Between Shots that the goalie faced, with a trendline in bold summarizing that relationship across an entire season. A line that slopes downward to the right shows that as the Time Between Shots becomes shorter, the Save Percentage tends to increase. An upward sloping line indicates a Save Percentage that gets better when more time passes between shots.

For screening purposes, I'm looking at goalies who played at least 41 games in both the 2005-6 and 2006-7 seasons. What we end up with are the following candidates: Roberto Luongo, Miikka Kiprusoff, Martin Brodeur, Marty Turco, Rick DiPietro, Tomas Vokoun, Curtis Joseph, J.S. Giguere, Olaf Kolzig, Manny Fernandez, Henrik Lundqvist, Manny Legace, Nikolai Khabibulin, Marc-Andre Fleury, Ed Belfour, Marc Denis, Ryan Miller, Antero Niittymaki, Evgeni Nabokov, Dominik Hasek, and Dwayne Roloson.

Now remember, this covers 2005-6 and 2006-7, so I'm going to eliminate a few more names from this list because due to trade, injury or age, this year they are clearly no longer considered #1 goalies: Curtis Joseph, Manny Fernandez, Ed Belfour, Antero Niittymaki, Marc Denis, and Marc-Andre Fleury. This leaves us with 15 netminders to consider. There are certainly players who have ascended to the role of #1 (Chris Mason, Nicklas Backstrom, etc.) but I don't have the two full seasons worth of history to go through there, so I'm leaving them out as well. I'm also not digging into 2007-8 data, as the NHL changed their Game Summary format mid-stream, so further work is needed to derive that information.

The first interesting result is that for most goaltenders, there wasn't much of a link between frequency of shots and save percentage. Among the goaltenders that failed to show any strong trend in either direction were Miikka Kiprusoff, Martin Brodeur, Rick DiPietro, Tomas Vokoun, J.S. Giguere, Henrik Lundqvist, Manny Legace, Ryan Miller, Evgeni Nabokov, and Dominik Hasek. Also, when I looked at the combined work of all goaltenders across the league, there was no relationship found. Among the #1's, however, there were a few noteworthy expections...

THANK YOU SIR, MAY I HAVE ANOTHER?

Robert Luongo: In 2005-6, workload appeared to have no discernable impact on Luongo's performance, but last year, after being traded from Florida to Vancouver, look at the downward slope of that red trendline; as the Time Between Shots dropped, Luongo's Save Percentage rose, and based on anecdotal observations this year (including a 47-save effort against Detroit earlier this month), it would appear that trend is continuing.

Olaf Kolzig: Godzilla's still battling away in Washington, and the consistency in his 2005-6 vs. 2006-7 numbers is striking; when facing shots more frequently, Kolzig tends to turn in a better performance. Can he put the young Caps on his back and lead them back to the playoffs for the first time since 2003? That's the big question...

Nikolai Khabibulin: Much like Luongo, the Bulin Wall showed little impact from frequency of shots in 2005-6, but last year showed one of the strongest trends among this group in terms of ability to handle a barrage of shots against.

Dwayne Roloson: Apparently a perfect match for an Edmonton team that gives up 31 shots a game, this 38 year-old still benefits from seeing more action.

SLOW IT DOWN, ALREADY!

Marty Turco: As opposed to the four cases above, this veteran Dallas keeper had a slightly negative reaction to increased shots against in 2005-6, but that trend became more prevalent last year. Since the Stars boast one of the league's stingiest defenses in terms of giving up shots, it would appear that Turco makes a good fit there. For Turco, the more time he has between shots against, the better he performs.

Labels: goaltending, statistics

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Predators Get Down to Basics in Boston

Nashville launches the post-All Star Game portion of their schedule tonight in Beantown, taking on a Bruins team (25-19-5) that is one of the pleasant surprises of this season. Boston was mostly expected to languish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, especially after losing Patrice Bergeron for the season due to injury. In goal, however, Tim Thomas is having a career year, leading the NHL with a .928 save percentage and earning the victory in Sunday's All-Star Game (granted, he gave up 4 goals on 18 shots, but who's counting). Team captain Zdeno Chara, who I believe is now 15 feet tall and still growing, is on pace for perhaps his finest offensive season. Can the speedy Preds escape the intense gravity well that Chara's massive frame emits, bending time and space to take away opportunities in the Boston defensive zone?

I'm guessing Scott Nichol could skate right under him...

Radek Bonk returns to the lineup tonight (with Josh Langfeld heading back to Milwaukee), giving Barry Trotz 12 forwards and 6 defense for the first time in a couple weeks. David Legwand (high ankle sprain) didn't make the trip, but it sounds like he'll be back in action soon. Dressing a conventional lineup gives Trotz another tough decision; which two defensemen to sit? With eight on the active roster, I'd bet that Greg Zanon and Kevin Klein will watch from the press box, but not due to any huge fault in their play of late. There have been a couple articles recently in the Tennessean about GM David Poile pursuing trade possibilities, but without any specific details or names mentioned, there's little reason to believe anything will happen immediately. The trade deadline is still four weeks away, although personally, I'd rather see them make a move sooner rather than later. One surprising note was made yesterday by a commenter on the Tennessean's website; while the common wisdom (and indeed Poile's own assessment) suggests that the Predators need scoring help, they actually stand 2nd in the Western Conference and 8th overall in Goals Per Game.

Since they're on the East Coast, the puck drops at 6:00 p.m. Nashville time, and tonight's broadcast on Fox Sports South will feature "Hockey 101", wherein Pete Weber and Terry Crisp will offer an education in hockey basics rather than providing traditional play-by-play (if you want that, turn up the radio where Eli Gold will fill in tonight with PBP duties). You can even submit your own questions online during the game, and have Pete & Terry respond. By all means tell your friends and coworkers, and help get them on the bandwagon as the Preds kick off the playoff stretch drive.

As for me, I've been indoctrinating the Little Forecheckers this year (they've each been to a couple games now), and tonight's game will be an opportunity to let someone else teach them about the game, while I can sit back and relax (yeah, right!).

Monday, January 28, 2008

Fantasy Forecheckers Flying High

Sure, now that the All-Star Weekend is behind us, there are plenty of features out today looking at how various NHL teams will fare the rest of the regular season. But instead, let's take a look at something really important: Fantasy Hockey Standings.

Fantasy Hockey Standings, 2008 Blogger Invitational

Fantasy Hockey Standings, 2008 Blogger Invitational

There's still a lot of work to be done, as the playoffs don't begin until March 10, but I have to give some credit this morning to the 2007-8 Fab Forecheckers (current roster):

Centers: Jason Arnott, Olli Jokinen, Vaclav Prospal, Bryan Smolinski
Left Wings: Jason Blake, Richard Zednick, Cory Stillman, Vern Fiddler
Right Wings: Markus Naslund, Dustin Penner, Fernando Pisani, Joordin Tootoo
Defence: Marek Zidlicky, Zdeno Chara, Sergei Gonchar, Fedor Tyutin, Ville Koistinen, Mattias Ohlund
Goaltenders: Tomas Vokoun, Rick DiPietro, Jose Theodore

Labels: fantasy hockey

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Jason Arnott Shoots Up Atlanta

Jason Arnott represented the Nashville Predators admirably in Saturday night's All-Star Skills Competition, participating in both the Shooting Accuracy and Hardest Shot events.

When it came to Accuracy, Arnott hit the targets in each of the four corners of the net in seven shots, best among the Western Conference stars. In the final matchup with Tomas Kaberle of the Maple Leafs (who went 4-for-4 in the first round), Arnott nailed three targets in four shots, which Kaberle then matched. As a tiebreaker they took a single shot each, which Arnott missed and Kaberle hit, giving the Eastern Conference the points in that area.

Arnott was then the first one up for the Hardest Shot, and popped a 100.3 MPH slapper to set the bar high early on. The next several shooters came up short, until Vincent Lecavalier hit 101.9, and Zdeno Chara defended his crown with a 103.1 MPH rocket.

Overall, the Skills Competition had its ups and downs; the Young Stars game was fun to watch, as the rookies skated 3-on-3 and after each goal was scored, the defending team just scooped up the puck and headed up-ice, keeping the pace lively and reminiscent of an up-tempo drop-in game. The Breakaway Challenge event, the new equivalent of the NBA Slam Dunk competition, was pretty much a dud, as sending a player in alone to score on a goalie is hard enough already, without asking them to add creative flare along the way. There were a few valiant attempts, however, by the likes of Marian Gaborik and Ilya Kovalchuk. In particular, Alexander Ovechkin tried to bounce the puck on his stick blade as he came down the ice leading up to a baseball-style swing for the score, but he failed to connect.

Tomorrow brings the All-Star Game itself (5:00 p.m. Central on Versus), which should be a much more entertaining affair. Watching the introduction of the All-Stars this evening, it's striking that even without injured stars like Sid Crosby, there is an eye-popping amount of talent on these two teams. The NHL is enjoying a resurgence of talent on the ice, and young leaders like Ovechkin, Malkin, Kopitar, Getzlaf and Kovalchuk are carving out their own place in the game, while sure-fire Hall of Famers like Nicklas Lidstrom and Scott Niedermayer are still dominating performers.

Monday, January 21, 2008

This Hockey Fan Has a Dream, Too

With apologies to one of the truly great pieces of American rhetoric... please place tongue firmly in cheek before reading.

I am happy to join with you today in what will go down as one of the lamest reinterpretations of a famous speech in the history of the hockey blogosphere.

Almost fifty score days ago, the NHL Commissioner, in whose symbolic shadow we stand today, signed the Collective Bargaining Agreement. This momentous decree came as a great beacon light of hope to millions of hockey fans who had been seared in the flames of withering injustice. It came as a joyous daybreak to end the long night of the Great Lockout.

But almost three years later, the hockey fan still is not safe. Three years later, the life of the hockey fan is still sadly crippled by the manacles of franchise instability and the chains of high ticket prices. Three years later, the hockey fan lives on a lonely island of poverty in the midst of a vast ocean of material prosperity. Three years later, the hockey fan is still languishing in the corners of the sports world and finds himself an exile in his own land. So we have come here today to dramatize a shameful condition.

In a sense we have come to cash a check. When the architects of this game wrote the magnificent words of the CBA, they were signing a promissory note to which every hockey fan was to fall heir. This note was a promise that all fans, yes, Canadian as well as American, would be guaranteed the unalienable rights of fast-paced action, competitive teams, and Hockey Night in Canada in HD.

Just picture him in one of Don Cherry's suits...

It is obvious today that the NHL has defaulted on this promissory note insofar as its fans in the South are concerned. Instead of honoring this sacred obligation, the hockey world has given the Southern Hockey Fan a bad check, a check which has come back marked "insufficient funds." But we refuse to believe that the bank of justice is bankrupt. We refuse to believe that there are insufficient funds in the great vaults of opportunity of this game. So we have come to cash this check — a check that will give us upon demand the riches of free agent signings and the security of stable and invested ownership. We have also come to remind the hockey world of the fierce urgency of now. This is no time to engage in the luxury of cooling off or to take the tranquilizing drug of gradualism. Now is the time to make real the promises of expansion. Now is the time to rise from the dark and desolate valley of segregation to the sunlit path of justice. Now is the time to lift our game from the quicksands of injustice to the solid rock of brotherhood. Now is the time to make justice a reality for all of the NHL's fans.

It would be fatal for the hockey world to overlook the urgency of the moment. This sweltering summer of the Southern Hockey Fan's legitimate discontent will not pass until there is an invigorating autumn of freedom and equality. 2007-8 is not an end, but a beginning. Those who hope that the Southern Hockey Fan needed to blow off steam and will now be content with local ownership in Nashville will have a rude awakening if the league returns to business as usual. There will be neither rest nor tranquility in the hockey world until the Southern Hockey Fan is granted his just due. The whirlwinds of revolt will continue to shake the foundations of our sport until the bright day of justice emerges.

But there is something that I must say to my people who stand on the warm threshold which leads into the palace of justice. In the process of gaining our rightful place we must not be guilty of wrongful deeds. Let us not seek to satisfy our thirst for freedom by drinking from the cup of bitterness and hatred.

We must forever conduct our struggle on the high plane of dignity and discipline. We must not allow our creative protest to degenerate into physical violence. Again and again we must rise to the majestic heights of meeting physical force with soul force. The marvelous new militancy which has engulfed the Southern Hockey fanbase must not lead us to a distrust of all Northerners, for many of them, as evidenced by their presence here today, have come to realize that their destiny is tied up with our destiny. They have come to realize that their prosperity is inextricably bound to our success. We cannot walk alone.

As we walk, we must make the pledge that we shall always march ahead. We cannot turn back. There are those who are asking the devotees of Southern hockey teams, "When will you be satisfied?" We can never be satisfied as long we are the targets of relocation efforts. We can never be satisfied, as long as our cities, heavy with the fatigue of fan-driven efforts to support the home team, cannot gain respect from the TV commentators, columnists and pundits. We cannot be satisfied as long as the Southern Hockey Fan's basic outlook is to go from a competitive team to a bottom-dweller. We cannot be satisfied as long as a hockey fan in Michigan can't cheer because his cable package doesn't include Versus and a hockey fan in Tampa believes he has nothing to cheer for. No, no, we are not satisfied, and we will not be satisfied until justice rolls down like waters and righteousness like a mighty stream.

I am not unmindful that some of you have come here out of great trials and tribulations. Some of you have come fresh from narrow jail cells. Some of you have come from areas where your quest for freedom left you battered by the storms of persecution and staggered by the winds of police brutality. You have been the veterans of creative suffering. Continue to work with the faith that unearned suffering is redemptive.

Go back to Miami, go back to Atlanta, go back to Carolina, go back to Phoenix, go back to Nashville, go back to the slums and ghettos of our northern cities, knowing that somehow this situation can and will be changed. Let us not wallow in the valley of despair.

I say to you today, my friends, so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the traditions of our great sport.

I have a dream that one day this community will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: "The Coolest Game on Earth."

I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia, Calgary Flames fans and the fans of the former Atlanta Flames will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood.

I have a dream that one day even the state of Nevada, a state sweltering with the heat of gambling, sweltering with the heat of explosive growth (just sweltering in the heat, period...), will be transformed into an oasis of NHL expansion.

I have a dream that my three little children will one day live where they will not be judged by the latitude of their home team, but by the fervor of their love for the game.

I have a dream today.

I have a dream that one day, down in Atlanta, with the NHL Commissioner having his ears burnt with the words of contraction and relocation; one day right there in Atlanta, hockey fans from the South will be able to join hands with their Northern counterparts as sisters and brothers.

I have a dream today.

I have a dream that one day every valley shall be exalted, every hill and mountain shall be made low, the point in the standings for OT/SO losses will be eliminated, and the too-soft ice will be frozen hard, and the glory of the Game shall be revealed, and all flesh shall see it together.

This is our hope. This is the faith that I go back to the South with. With this faith we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope. With this faith we will be able to transform the jangling discords of our community into a beautiful symphony of brotherhood. With this faith we will be able to work together, to struggle together, to go to sports bars together, to stand up for our game together, knowing that we will get proper coverage on SportsCenter one day.

This will be the day when all hockey fans will be able to sing with a new meaning, "The good old hockey game, Is the best game you can name..."

And if the NHL is to be a great league this must become true. So let hockey ring from the snow-covered forests of Minnesota. Let hockey ring from the mighty mountains of New York. Let hockey ring from the heightening Alleghenies of Pennsylvania!

Let hockey ring from the snowcapped Rockies of Colorado!

Let hockey ring from the curvaceous slopes of California!

But not only that; let hockey ring from Stone Mountain of Georgia!

Let hockey ring from Music City, Tennessee!

Let hockey ring from every hill and molehill of Western Canada. From every mountainside, let hockey ring.

And when this happens, when we allow hockey to ring, when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of us, American and Canadian, Hab and Leaf, Avalanche and Red Wing, Devil and Ranger, will be able to join hands and say in the words of the old coach, "It's a great day for hockey..."

Friday, January 18, 2008

How Hard Is The Road Ahead?

With NHL playoff races tight in both conferences, one factor that could help decide who makes it and who doesn't is Strength of Schedule. In order to help sort this issue out, I've updated the NHL Super Schedule so that the metrics for opponent strength (Win Percentage, Goals For, Goals Against, etc.) have been updated with team values through the games of January 17, 2008. There is also a new field at the far right (Date Value) which can be used to sort and select based on dates, so for example today being January 18, 2008, that translates to 39465 in that column. You can download your own copy of the spreadsheet from Google into Excel, OpenOffice Calc, or whatever spreadsheet program you like, and hammer away at the numbers yourself.

So who's got the hardest and easiest rows to hoe as we come into the final half of the 2007-8 Regular Season? Instead of focusing on Opponent's Win Percentage (which is horribly skewed by the standings point awarded for OT/SO Losses), I prefer to take the ratio of Opponents Goals For/Goals Against, as I believe that to be a better indicator of whether your favorite team is likely to fare well against that foe. For instance, Edmonton's number of shootout wins helps them to a .490 Win Percentage, but their GF/GA is a lousy 0.83, tied for worst in the league with Tampa Bay; chances are, opponents are picking up at least a point each night against the Oilers. The following table reflects data for the games of January 19 through the end of the regular season:

Relatively speaking, the Southeast Division boasts the easiest opposition (hardly shocking, since they play each other so much), claiming 5 out of the top 6 spots. On the opposite end you'll see many of the Central Division teams near the bottom, a further demonstration of how that group has improved as a whole. Among the Western Conference contenders, Minnesota and Vancouver stand out as perhaps having a clearer road to the playoffs than Nashville, Columbus and Chicago. Over in the Eastern Conference, Philadelphia enjoys a softer schedule than its Atlantic Division counterparts, whereas Toronto faces a more difficult slate of games than the rest of the Northeast.

Granted, with 33-38 games remaining for each team, there is still a wide enough variety of opposition to keep these numbers relatively close across the league; as the season winds down, wider seperation will develop, so I'll update this table regularly as the playoffs approach.

I hope you'll find this tool useful for analyzing your own team's stretch run, and if you have any additions or modifications you'd like to see made to this resource, just drop a note in the comments and I'll see what I can do.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Duck on the menu in Music City

Tonight marks the fourth in a key seven-game stretch for the Nashville Predators, wherein each night they face a team above them in the Western Conference standings. With shootout losses against Columbus and Chicago prior to Tuesday's 3-0 win over Calgary, they've garnered four points in the first three games, and have gone 4-1-2 so far in the month of January. With Anaheim in town, however, the Preds will be facing some stiff opposition. Scott Niedermeyer's return from an extended vacation, err... retirement has the Ducks looking like Stanley Cup champions once again, and last week they dominated Nashville 5-2 out in California.

For the Predators, the story recently has been hot goaltending once again from Chris Mason (who appears to have finally shaken off the effects of the flu which hampered him last month), along with steady offensive contributions from Jason Arnott (7 goals, 10 assists in his last 15 games) and J.P. Dumont (7 goals, 7 assists in his last 9). Shea Weber returned to action against Calgary, although since Nashville will dress 11 forwards and 7 defence again tonight, it's likely that he'll continue to be brought along slowly (think 15 minutes of ice time rather than 20-22). No Jordin Tootoo (hip flexor) and no Darcy Hordichuk (leg) means that the Preds will focus even more on puck possession and playing their speed game, which is probably a good idea against the Ducks anyway; it's not like Nashville's going to out-muscle them even if the roster was intact.

The key for the Predators tonight will be to work hard away from the puck offensively, driving traffic to the front of the net and going for tips & rebounds. They're not likely to run much of a cycling game against Anaheim's elite defense corps, so it's incumbent on them to fire away early and often with bodies in front of J.S. Giguere. One area where I would like to see Nashville challenge them is to have the top puck handlers (Radulov & Erat) try to get by Chris Pronger. The last time I ran the Penalty Plus/Minus numbers on January 3rd, Pronger sat at the bottom of the league with a -21 rating, and since he's such a critical part of the Ducks penalty kill, putting him in the box serves a dual purpose.

For the Mallard-based perspective, head over to Battle of California...

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Time to go shopping, Mr. Poile

Now that the Nashville Predators know that Steve Sullivan won't be riding to the rescue this season, the focus shifts to GM David Poile, who needs to bolster the team's offensive attack. There have been long stretches on more than one occasion this season where the offense struggles to produce more than 1 or 2 goals a night, and another two-week drought like that could drop the Preds perilously far behind the other Western Conference playoff contenders.

So what kind of deal would Poile be looking for? If the prognosis is indeed for Sully to return for next season, then perhaps the sweet spot here is to look for a pure "rental" player, an upcoming free agent that Nashville has little to no intention of re-signing, and would cost the least in trade compared to a productive player signed to an extended contract. Defense and goaltending are basically well-stocked, so the need to be addressed is up front. It's time to round up the usual suspects... please note of course that I have no idea who Poile is talking to, I'm just taking a look around the league and offering up my humble two cents.

PENDING FREE AGENTS

Mats Sundin (45GP, 20G, 29A); He's an upcoming free agent and no matter where (and if) he goes, it's likely that he'll head back to Toronto this summer to finish out his career. Sundin has a no-trade clause, but if Peter Forsberg agreed to come to Nashville, it's not outside the realm of possibility for Sundin to do so as well. It's far more likely, however, that the Maple Leafs captain will insist on a more prominent Stanley Cup contender than a team fighting to make the playoffs, like the Predators are.

Michael Ryder (39GP, 6G, 9A); This is a bit of an odd case. Ryder scored 25, 30, and 30 goals in his first three NHL seasons, but has suddenly gone dry this year, so much so that he's been a healthy scratch and has been demoted to checking-line duty. His shooting percentage, which ranged from 11.6%-13.5% in those first three seasons, has sunk to 6.3% in this campaign. He's an upcoming free agent, and given his production so far he might be a comparative bargain on the trade market, but it's basically a gamble that in a new lineup his goal-scoring touch would return. If the price is right, this could be a savvy pickup.

Sergei Fedorov (44GP, 8G, 17A); With Columbus a legitimate playoff threat I doubt they'll move Fedorov, but if anyone would seem to be a good fit for the Barry Trotz system it would be this two-time Selke winner. The conventional wisdom is that GM's don't like to trade within their own division, but in the modern NHL, there's not much difference between intra-division or intra-conference trades, so as long as it doesn't involve a key player going the other way that Nashville would have to face several times a year, that shouldn't get in the way of a trade.

Ladislav Nagy (37GP, 9G, 17A); in the seasons immediately prior to and after the lockout, Nagy played at roughly a point-a-game pace, but has failed to live up to that standard since. He was picked up last spring for Dallas' stretch drive, but chipped in only four goals in 25 games, and has put up only modest numbers in Los Angeles on a team that scores a decent amount, even if they can't stop their opponents.

Radim Vrbata (43GP, 18G, 15A); Phoenix, like Columbus, finds itself in the thick of the playoff chase this year, and even if they fell back, I would think they'd try hard to lock up this young Czech, who they acquired in trade last summer, with a new contract.

Cory Stillman (45GP, 20G, 22A); Carolina got off to a good start but they've been stumbling lately, and every team in the Eastern Conference has games in hand on the Hurricanes, so they're quickly running out of time to right their ship. If, over the next few weeks, the playoffs slip out of reach, perhaps Carolina might deal the veteran sniper.

Miroslav Satan (44GP, 10G, 13A); Satan in the Bible Belt? I bet that would prompt a few interesting letters to the Tennessean! This is another situation where the widespread competition for playoff berths has restricted the number of teams that would be considered sellers on the trade market. The Isles currently sit 7th in the East, and wouldn't give up this four-time 30 goal scorer unless hope for the postseason was truly gone.

Martin Straka (29GP, 8G, 10A); Straka's a fine offensive threat, and I suspect his future in New York is somewhat tied to that of Jaromir Jagr. Jagr's heated up since playing alongside Straka recently, so the Rangers would be hamstringing themselves if they let Straka go.

Vaclav Prospal (46GP, 19G, 26A); Tampa Bay is a franchise that needs to break out the dynamite and get down to some serious restructuring. Prospal is in the final year of an affordable ($1.9 million) contract, and he can play left wing or center, which fits nicely with the Predators current roster (where Dumont, Erat, and Radulov all are better suited at RW).

Marian Hossa (44GP, 19G, 23A); I initially didn't include Hossa in this list, but after prompting from one of the members of the Predators Message Boards, I decided to correct the error. Basically, despite all the current talk going on I highly doubt that the Thrashers will dump this franchise player. Atlanta still needs some playoff success, and with them contending for the Southeast Division title, they have every reason to stock up for a postseason run, not sell off commodities for future value. Even considering the "we can't sign him long-term so trading him is better" angle, it makes more sense to hang on to Hossa for the duration. Without him, they likely won't make the playoffs. With him, they've got a chance to make it through a round or two, with the attendant millions in postseason profit providing greatly flexibility to either sign Hossa in the summer or pursue a free agent replacement.

NON-FREE AGENTS TO CONSIDER

Martin St. Louis (45 GP, 17 G, 36A); He's a former Hart-trophy winner who would certainly add zip to the offense, and while he's got three more seasons left on his contract, what makes that attractive to a team like Nashville is that his cap hit ($5.25 million) is higher than what he'll be paid for the duration of his contract ($5 million in 2008-9, then $4 million the last two years). For a team that would prefer to keep the payroll low but still must meet the NHL's salary floor, that's an enticing situation. The buzz-killer here is that the Lightning need a #1 goaltender, and that's not what the Predators can offer in exchange.

Olli Jokinen (46GP, 22G, 21A); Supposedly Jokinen and the Florida front office are not on the same page, which has led to trade speculation for quite a while. While the price would be steep for the 29 year-old Finn, he's a flat-out stud centerman, and would make a landmark acquisition. His contract runs through the 2009-10 season, but at a reasonable amount ($5.25-5.5 million per year). This is the kind of player that you give up developing youngsters and draft picks for, a proven performer in the prime of his career.

Alexander Ovechkin (45GP, 34G, 21A); You mean those internet rumors from last week weren't true??? *SOB* But they cited "sources" for crying out loud! This one never had a chance, folks; I'm guessing someone overheard two kids in the hallway at the Sommet Center trading hockey cards, and ran with it as a potential deal.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Crank Up the Trade Speculation in Tennessee...

Just prior to tonight's 3-0 victory over Calgary, Steve Sullivan apparently addressed his teammates in the dressing room and informed that he's not going to be back on the ice during this 2007-8 season, due to the back injury he suffered last spring (article from John Glennon at the Tennessean). This basically puts to bed all the speculation about when he'd be back in the lineup, although his doctors maintain that he should be good to go for next season.

Tonight's game was a dandy, with J.P. Dumont scoring again to keep his hot streak going, and Martin Erat potting one after missing two wide-open backdoor opportunities on a previous power play. Chris Mason was stellar in net, earning his 2nd shutout in his last three starts, and Shea Weber returned to action, looking a bit rusty during his time on the power play. My "unsung hero" award in this one is Greg de Vries, however, who, in the absence of usual agitators Jordin Tootoo and Darcy Hordichuk, seemed to get under the skin of Calgary forwards early and often, particularly Mark Smith and Jarome Iginla.

Since I was at the game enjoying the action with Mrs. Forechecker I wasn't taking detailed notes, but suffice it to say that other than a lousy attendance figure, it was a good night of hockey in Nashville.

Check back tomorrow for speculation on what the Predators need to do now that they know there's no Sully in the cards for 2007-8. You'd better be working those phones, Mr. Poile...

Give Me Victory, or Give Me... well, whatever you have, I guess...

Tonight brings another key Western Conference matchup for the Nashville Predators (21-19-4) as the Calgary Flames (22-16-8) come to town, leading Nashville by six points in the playoff race, though the Preds have two games in hand. Both squads are 5-3-2 in their last 10, and coming off recent losses; the Flames dropped a 2-1 decision in Edmonton Sunday, while the Preds lost in a shootout with Chicago.

Given the fact that making it to overtime ensures each team at least one point in the standings, it becomes critical in these intra-conference matchups to put away your opponent in regulation, and maximize your opportunity to jump in the standings. Nashville had to come from behind to send the game with Chicago to overtime on Sunday, but in Columbus Saturday night, an early shift to a "prevent defense" allowed the Blue Jackets to tie things up midway through the 3rd, en route to another shootout loss for Nashville.

The problem here is that Barry Trotz can point to these games and claim to have achieved at least some success (by making it to OT and earning a point), and then shrug his shoulders over the shootout loss, claiming that it is basically a toss-up over which he has little influence. After Sunday's loss to the Blackhawks, Trotz's line was, "They are what they are, a one-on-one skills competition. When you win, they are great. When you lose them, they are not so great."

That's an awfully cavalier attitude about something that could ultimately determine whether his team makes the playoffs or not. The problem here is that over the last two games we've seen very little desire to stay aggressive and go for victory; instead, the gameplan appears to be to limp into the overtime and hope for the best in a shootout.

Why else, in the Chicago game, would guys like Scott Nichol, Jerred Smithson and Jed Ortmeyer (who have combined for 10 goals this season) get shifts in the overtime period, but not Alexander Radulov? By way of comparison, Blackhawks rookie sensation Patrick Kane got 2:20 of ice time in that situation. When the OT started, due to coincidental minor penalties, the team's skated 3-on-3. Chicago put Robert Lang, Martin Havlat, and Duncan Keith out there (2 scoring forwards and a D). Nashville responded with David Legwand in front of Dan Hamhuis and Greg de Vries, clearly thinking defense first. Given all that room out there you'd think Martin Erat and/or Marek Zidlicky would have given the Preds a better chance to win.

Hanging on and hoping for the best is no way to make a run for the playoffs, and from a business point of view, it's a lousy way sell fans on the game. Worse yet, letting your opponent get the OTL point in the standings minimizes the benefits of victory, and given how tightly packed the Western Conference playoff race is, it's just as important to knock your opponent down as it is to lift yourself up.

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Don't Ease Off That Throttle!

The Nashville Predators 12-game winning streak over the Columbus Blue Jackets came to an end Saturday night, dropping a 2-1 decision in the shootout. Frankly, this is one the Preds should have had sown up, after taking a 1-0 lead late in the second period on a nice goal by Alexander Radulov. Right from the outset of the 3rd period, however, it appeared that Nashville was trying to just run out the clock. Forwards would merely gain the red line with possession and dump it into the Columbus end, making time for quick line changes.

Just past halfway through the 3rd, however, Dan Hamhuis gave the puck away to Nikolai Zherdev deep in the Predators zone, and a quick feed to Rostislav Klesla resulted in a shot that beat Chris Mason (who was generally strong in the Nashville net) to tie things up with 9:15 left. Once they remembered that offense was part of the game as well, the Predators went on the attack and threatened to score the game-winner in regulation; up through the Klesla goal, the Blue Jackets outshot Nashville 7-1 in the third, whereas afterwards Nashville outshot Columbus 8-2.

The Predators' best opportunity came late as Jason Arnott got the puck all alone off to the right of the Columbus net, but instead of firing at an open short-side corner, he tried to feed a crossing pass to J.P. Dumont which got broken up. Dumont's six-game goal scoring streak came to an end, though he did set up Radulov's score in the second, keeping his point-scoring streak alive at seven games. That top line of Radulov-Arnott-Dumont was effective throughout the game. On the opposite end, Zherdev and Rick Nash were the main threats for Columbus. Nash's speed and strength were tangible difference-makers, causing fits for Nashville defenders.

Outside of those first 10 minutes of the third, Nashville played a well-balanced and disciplined game, with only one penalty to Martin Gelinas for tripping and few big gaffes outside the Hamhuis giveaway noted above. Forwards were doing an especially good job backchecking all night long, and in the first two periods those defensive efforts resulted in dangerous offensive chances, as the Predators launched quick rushes the other way after regaining the puck.

In the shootout, all three Nashville shooters (Radulov, Erat, Dumont) failed to score, while Zherdev scored for Columbus, and Chris Mason stopped Michael Peca and Rick Nash.

Having at least gained one point in the standings, the Predators return home tomorrow to face a depleted Chicago Blackhawks team, which is coming off a 5-2 loss to Minnesota Friday night.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Nashville Predators First Half Review

After Monday night's 5-1 trouncing in Anaheim, (but before their 7-0 rout of the L.A. Kings) the Nashville Predators have now hit the halfway point of the 2007-8 regular season, so it's time for a State of the Preds review. At 20-19-2 after 41 games, Nashville currently sits in 4th place in the Central Division and 12th in the Western Conference, five points out a playoff berth currently held by Colorado. You can also reference the 1st Quarter grades for comparison, if you like. All numbers after each player's name are as of Game 41 against Anaheim.

One of the main measures I'm using here is the Rating derived at BehindTheNet.ca, where they calculate the GF-GA rates per 60 minutes for each player in various situations (5-on-5, 5-on-4, etc.). The main Rating represents the difference between the team's GF-GA per 60 minutes when a player is on the ice, versus when they are on the bench. This helps reflect the difference between a guy who's coasting along on a great team, as opposed to a standout player on a lousy squad whose numbers otherwise would look terrible. I've provided a condensed snapshot of those ratings, reflecting Nashville players with a significant amount of duty in 5-on-5, 4-on-5 (PK) and 5-on-4 (PP) situations. Where I make reference to specific values (as in Arnott's grading below), those are from this snapshot which was taken after Game 41. If you click on links to BehindTheNet below, they'll take you to the stats as updated each morning. The other main metric I use is the Penalty Plus/Minus figure, a reflection of how many penalties a player is committing vs. how many they are drawing from their opponents. A positive figure there indicates a player generating net power play opportunities for his squad, while a negative figure shows a player leaving his team shorthanded all too often.

The Centers

Jason Arnott (40 GP, 14G, 20A, 32 PIM, +9, 18:54 TOI); As Nashville's lone All-Star representative, Arnott is on track for one of his best seasons as a pro, and has a shot at hitting 30 goals for only the 3rd time in his 14-year NHL career. He's been the team's biggest difference-maker in 5-on-5 action, improving the Predators GF/GA marks by +2.12 goals per 60 minutes, which if you look at players with 20 GP and 10 minutes or more on the ice per game, puts him at 7th in the league in that regard. On the power play, his 7 PP goals leads the team, one of the few bright spots on a disappointing special teams unit. The only downside is his Penalty Plus/Minus figure, which at -10 is worst on the team and is 8th-worst among forwards across the league. Given the decline in Nashville's penalty killing this year, taking those penalties and leaving his team shorthanded is especially costly this year. Grade: A-

David Legwand (40 GP, 8G, 22A, 24 PIM, -1, 18:03 TOI); The goal-scoring has pretty much dried up for Legwand, who has scored only twice in the 2nd quarter of the season. He's still a positive influence in 5-on-5 and a good penalty killer, but perhaps is a microcosm of what the Predators look like overall as a team; defensively responsible and speedy, but lacking enough offensive firepower to represent a serious Stanley Cup contender. Grade: C+

Radek Bonk (41 GP, 11G, 7A, 18 PIM, -15, 16:23 TOI); Bonk surprised many with his early season goal-scoring burst, and has lent a hot hand in crucial circumstances, finishing off a thrilling 5-4 comeback victory in Montreal, for example. Once you get past the highlights, however, you realize that despite being brought in as a checking center, he's getting scored on in bunches (more so than earlier this season), and has only scored two goals since Thanksgiving. Is Bonk conking out? Grade: C-

Scott Nichol (32 GP, 1G, 3A, 37 PIM, +5, 11:15 TOI); As the 4th-line and PK specialist, Nichol's done a fair job, excepting of course his five-game suspension for cross-checking Patrice Brisebois in the face. At even strength, he's had some impressive efforts when centering Martin Gelinas and Jordin Tootoo, but given the constant line-shuffling that combo didn't stay together for very long. Grade: B+

The Wingers

J. P. Dumont (41 GP, 15G, 15A, 18 PIM, +4, 18:22 TOI); His current five-game goal scoring streak has him leading the Nashville scorers, a welcome change from the early months of the season when it seemed like J.P. was failing to capitalize on great chances. He's spent most of his time paired effectively with Jason Arnott, and his 5 PP goals are tied for 2nd on the team with Radek Bonk. He's on pace to easily eclipse his career-best 23 goals, and he'll need to push 30-35 for the Predators to have a shot at the playoffs. Since he's an unrestricted free agent this summer, I expect he'll be extremely motivated to keep burying those pucks. And it's not like he's just a one-dimensional player, either; in 5-on-5 action, while the team's GF/60 minutes indeed goes up when he's on the ice, the Goals Against/60 minutes figure improves as well (2.38 when he's on the ice, 2.78 when he's on the bench). Grade: B+

Martin Erat (37 GP, 10G, 18A, 18 PIM, +1, 18:38 TOI); After a hot November, Erat's production has tailed off once again, with only two goals from December 1 through game 41. Erat's speed and puckhandling ability still help drive the attack when he's out there, but as my boss says, "efforts are appreciated, but results are preferred." One impressive aspect of Erat's play is on the penalty kill, where's he only been on the ice for one goal against despite averaging more than a minute per game of PK duty, among the best marks in the league for players seeing significant PK time (scroll way down this list to find Erat near the bottom in terms of GA/60 minutes of 4-on-5 time). Grade: B

Alexander Radulov (41 GP, 12G, 18A, 22 PIM, +6, 15:17 TOI); Here's what I wrote prior to the start of the season about how I thought A-Rad's season would go. "Figure him for something like 200 shots, a 13-15% scoring rate, and 25-30 goals. Anything above that would be a huge bonus to the Predators." Let's see, halfway through the year he's got 12 goals on 94 shots, a 12.8% scoring rate. Excuse me while I pat myself on the back for that one... Seriously, though, Radulov's coming along nicely and has proven to be an underrated playmaker. His dazzling puckhandling skills draw the attention of opposing defenders, and the super soph has the awareness to find open teammates regularly. If he can cut down on the defensive-zone gaffes that still pop up occasionally, he'll make that next leap to the 18+ minute per game level, and have more of an opportunity to become the 30-40 goal scorer that most envision him to be. Grade: B+

Vern Fiddler (38 GP, 6G, 10A, 24 PIM, -2, 13:13 TOI); Vern has been shuffled between lines perhaps more than any other forward, which is likely a sign of Trotz's confidence in his ability to plug holes rather than an indictment on his play. After a hot start his offensive contributions have dried up, however, and his penalty killing work has been subpar. Grade: B-

Jordin Tootoo (41 GP, 7G, 6A, 57 PIM, -4, 10:02 TOI); The goals have stopped coming in bunches like they were early on, but the disciplined agitation factor is still there, represented by Tootoo's Penalty Plus/Minus figure of +7, which leads the team. Despite leading the team with 57 penalty minutes, he's goading opponents into taking penalties at a fairly significant rate, which helps create valuable power play time for the offensive leaders on the club. Tootoo has taken a major step forward in his development as a regular NHL player this year, and has gotten some playing time alongside Arnott & Dumont in recognition of that. Grade: B

Jed Ortmeyer (36 GP, 3G, 3A, 19 PIM, -7, 13:05 TOI); His hustle is undeniable, but the lackluster 5-on-5 results and the continuing difficulties on the power play leave room for improvement, which may also have been a factor in Ortmeyer being a healthy scratch in a few recent games. He has finally popped in a few goals, but Nashville needs more out of a guy who's main job is to shut down opposing offenses. Grade: C-

Martin Gelinas (35 GP, 6G, 4A, 10 PIM, +1, 13:43 TOI); Finally healthy for a decent stretch, Gelinas has been a positive influence at both even strength and on the penalty kill. He's basically filling the role expected of him, to provide competent 3rd-line and PK work with occasional cameos on the top line or power play. Grade: B-

Jerred Smithson (40 GP, 4G, 3A, 29 PIM, -12, 12:57 TOI); Like Radek Bonk, Smithson appears to be getting lit up at even strength. Unlike Bonk, his penalty killing numbers are the worst among the main shorthanded specialists, and he isn't scoring goals to make up for what's going into his own net. His sub-.500 faceoff percentage isn't helping matters, either. Grade: D

Darcy Hordichuk (20 GP, 0G, 0A, 25 PIM, -5, 4:38 TOI); Over the last few weeks Hordichuk's been getting more action, and has proven himself worthy so far of staying in the lineup. He's been stronger on the puck isn't getting burned as badly as he was early on, and in Game 42 against Los Angeles scored his first goal of the season, charging to the net and banging home a loose rebound. Grade: C+

The Defense

Shea Weber (16 GP, 1G, 5A, 14 PIM, -6, 18:01 TOI); This has been an injury-filled season for Weber, who only played 5 games out of the first 21 and is currently out with another leg injury. When healthy, he's been a shadow of the player everyone in Nashville has been hoping for, and when he's been on the ice for power play action, he's actually been outscored 4 goals to 3. There's still plenty of time to salvage his season, but he certainly needs to recuperate as fully as possible before returning to the lineup, as the Predators need him at his confident best, playing physical defense and bombing away iwth shots from the point. Grade: D+

Ryan Suter (37 GP, 5G, 10A, 30 PIM, -6, 20:40 TOI); Another young Nashville defenseman with injury issues, Suter missed some time with a leg injury in late December, and hasn't played well since then, seeming to avoid contact. That has landed him in Barry Trotz's doghouse for the time being, as Suter's been a healthy scratch on a couple recent occasions. While his 5-on-5 and PK numbers are mediocre, he's actually achieved pretty decent results on the power play, and is pretty daring in his forays deep into the offensive zone. With Kevin Klein unable to return to Milwaukee without clearing waivers, Suter will be pushed to play his best in order to make the lineup each night. Grade: C

Dan Hamhuis (41 GP, 3G, 13A, 38 PIM, -3, 23:27 TOI); Whereas previously Hamhuis' Penalty Plus/Minus figure was tops among NHL defenseman, now it has slipped to a more pedestrian -3, and while he's played every game and leads the team in ice time, the numbers he's putting up don't exactly make you jump out of your seat. Grade: B-

Marek Zidlicky (39 GP, 3G, 21A, 35 PIM, -7, 21:02 TOI); Zids has improved somewhat as the season has progressed, perhaps in part due to his recent pairing with young Ville Koistinen. No matter what, he's been the biggest difference-maker on Nashville's power play, and he's no longer quite the liability 5-on-5 that he was in the first quarter. He still needs to cut down on the penalties, however, as his Penalty Plus/Minus of -10 is tied for worst on the team. Grade: C

Greg Zanon (41 GP, 0G, 3A, 16 PIM, -4, 19:20 TOI); #5 logs the most PK time on the team, and has been outstanding in that role, helping to lift it into 8th in the NHL currently, whereas earlier this season it was among the worst in the league. He currently stands 2nd in the league in Blocked Shots, and keeps his own penalties to a minimum. He's the kind of stay-at-home blueliner that any team loves to have. Grade: A-

Greg de Vries (41 GP, 2G, 6A, 24 PIM, +6, 19:06 TOI); The veteran free agent pickup gets the 2nd-most 5-on-5 time on the team, and provides the type of "glue" that the team was looking for when he was brought in. He's one of those guys who's at his best when you don't notice his play very much, making things look simple and routine. Grade: B+

Ville Koistinen (26 GP, 1G, 8A, 12 PIM, +10, 16:03 TOI); While this rookie is eligible to head back to Milwaukee without clearing waivers, Trotz can't take him out of the lineup the way he's been playing. He's maintained his outstanding performance in 5-on-5, and has been very impressive lately on the power play, where he's shown a willingness to fire away early and often with the puck, and the deft puck-handling to deal with pressuring forwards. Grade: A-

Kevin Klein (9 GP, 0G, 2A, 6 PIM, -3, 13:06 TOI); The recent injuries to Weber and Suter have given Klein a second opportunity for NHL action, and it's gone much better this time around. Once Weber returns we'll see whether room remains in the lineup. Grade: Incomplete

The Goaltenders

Chris Mason (28 GP, 10-14-2, 3.09 GAA, .892 SV%, 1 SO); A nasty bout of the flu pretty much wiped out Mason's December, as he tried to play through it, looked awful doing so, and slowly worked his way back. The first game of the second half (Game 42 against L.A.) saw him pitch a shutout, so perhaps he's finally back in game shape. Nashville fans sure hope so, because the first half left them feeling pretty nervous. Grade: C-

Dan Ellis (19 GP, 10-5-0, 2.42 GAA, .917 SV%, 3 SO); While the inevitable return to earth has occured for Ellis (Game 41 in Anaheim, for example, saw the Ducks take advantage of habitually-plentiful rebound opportunities), he's still done an outstanding job as the backup, and started four games in a row recently. At the very least, the team has gained confidence playing in front of him against any opponent. Grade: A-

The Coaches

This has been a very streaky team, although even during dark stretches there have been very few games where the Predators looked unprepared or disinterested. The one game that does come to mind was the 6-0 pasting they took in Los Angeles, which they avenged Tuesday night with that 7-0 win. Considering that the team's most dynamic offensive player (Steve Sullivan) continues to recover from back surgery, and their #1 stud defenseman (Shea Weber) has been hampered with knee trouble, Nashville has hung around the playoff race admirably. If their current level of play can be maintained over the next couple weeks, they should comfortably clear Chicago and Columbus in the standings and drive towards their 4th consecutive playoff berth.

On the downside, the power play continues to be a source of concern. While the addition of Koistinen has given it some life, it still ranks 24th in the NHL along with giving up seven shorthanded goals, a figure outdone only by the Wild and Islanders with eight each. The penalty kill has improved greatly since the first quarter, and must continue to do so given the team's lack of consistent offensive punch. The main challenge coming up is how they will deal with eight defensemen on the active roster. Perhaps David Poile could relieve that glut and pick up a Top-Six forward in trade? Come on, pretty please? Grade: B-

Jason Arnott, NHL All-Star

The NHL Western Conference All-Star team has been announced (hat tip to Kukla's Korner), and Jason Arnott is going to represent the Nashville Predators in the midseason spectacle.

Jason Arnott, Nashville Predators Captain

Arnott leads Nashville with 7 PP goals

This is a fine choice, and not just a token "we need one guy from every team" pick. Arnott's on track for a 30 goal, 40 assist season, and is among the top players in the game in 5-on-5 action. This is his second All-Star selection, the first coming in 1997 when he was still an Edmonton Oiler.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Preds Deliver a Royal Thumping

It sure was nice to see the Predators do something this week that the Tennessee Titans couldn't do; score a touchdown in California.

Not much else to say other than "wow", given last night's 7-0 beating the Predators put on the Kings in Los Angeles last night, avenging a 6-0 defeat suffered there earlier this year. J.P. Dumont scored to stretch his goal-scoring streak to six games, tied for best so far this season with Detroit's Henrik Zetterberg, and Darcy Hordichuk looked like an effective hockey player for the second straight game, impressing me more than anything I've seen out of him in the last couple seasons. He was aggressive with the puck, got his first goal of the year, and used his size and strength effectively. Unlike the view from the L.A. side, this was an important game for Nashville, which is steadily climbing back into the playoff hunt, having passed Chicago and Columbus in the standings over the last few days.

Oh yes, and Ryan Suter was a healthy scratch again in favor of Kevin Klein, who played almost 20 minutes. Chris Mason earned the shutout with a solid effort, as the Kings did get a few dangerous chances along the way. Mostly however, it was a night for the boo birds in L.A., who voiced their disapproval early and often...

Friday, January 04, 2008

Halfway home, and picking up steam

The 2007-08 NHL season hits the halfway mark this weekend, so it's a fine time to reflect on the season so far, and in particular some of the outstanding performances from a statistical point of view.

The individual goal-scoring race is going to be a doozy right down to the end of the season, as the main contenders at this point (Ilya Kovalchuk, Jarome Iginla and Alex Ovechkin) all put a ton of shots on net, and boast excellent, but not unbelievable shooting percentages. By this I mean that while I can see Kovalchuk maintaining his 21% pace over the course of a career season, a guy like Mike Ribiero (who leads Dallas with 21 goals) isn't going to keep scoring on 36.8% of his shots. All three of those top snipers should keep pushing each other night after night, making the Rocket Richard race a joy to watch for fans all around the league.

Since I've updated the Penalty Plus/Minus spreadsheet over at Google for the first time since the holidays, I can tell you that Sidney Crosby continues to lead the NHL having drawn 27 more penalties than he's committed, maintaining a healthy gap over L.A.'s Anze Kopitar who trails with a +22 rating. At the bottom end of that scale Anaheim captain Chris Pronger has taken over the lead with a -21 mark, surpassing Toronto's Jeff Wozniewski's -20. Outside of scoring an actual goal, drawing or committing a penalty is about the most significant event that impacts the outcome of a game, so Crosby's performance in this regard only adds to his MVP credentials, especially considering that another major candidate, Tampa Bay's Vinnie Lecavalier, comes in with a middling +4 rating. Atlanta's Kovalchuk does boast a +13, best on the Thrashers squad, and Calgary's Iginla has a +7.

You want an unsung hero? How about Mathieu Garon in Edmonton? While his 10-9-1 record and .909 save percentage don't jump out and scream "All-Star", he's saved an outstanding 18 of 20 shots during the shootout, giving him a 6-0 mark in that event and earning the Oilers points in the standings that would otherwise have them lingering at the very bottom of the NHL standings.

On a team level, of course the Detroit Red Wings (30-8-3) are the runaway success story of the first half. They're 2nd in Goals For per game (3.44 to Ottawa's 3.54), tops in Goals Against (2.10), and have enough cap space available to be considered part of the Peter Forsberg sweepstakes, should they require another Swede for the playoff drive. Next thing you know, they'll be throwing pickled herring on the ice at Joe Louis Arena rather than octopus...

Apparently Forsberg has a few demands before joining the Red Wings

The Atlanta Thrashers (20-20-1) have recovered from the early season woes that cost Bob Hartley his job, and while they've gotten back to within arms-reach of the playoffs, they'll have a tough job beating out Philadelphia and Buffalo for postseason berths. The Islanders, meanwhile, seem to have thrown the engine in reverse, having started the season by perhaps winning a few more games than they had a right to expect. Now that the GF/GA ratio is slipping towards the dark side on a recurring basis, the Islanders appear to be foundering in a tightening Atlantic division.

As we head into the second half, the upcoming trade deadline will grab all the attention before the playoff races really get under way. Which teams will throw in the towel and start planning for next year, and which ones will roll the figurative dice and load up for a shot at the Cup this spring? No matter what happens, there are a number of interesting storylines to follow throughout the second half, and in NHL markets like Chicago, Boston, and St. Louis, a possible return to the playoffs has fans energized. Columbus, which has yet to experience post-season action, also has a legitimate shot this year. Even some of the cities that might not make the playoffs have reason for hope, either with newly competitive teams (like Phoenix), or individual stars who are worth the price of admission (as in Washington and Tampa). In short, it's been an enjoyable season already, and things are only just starting to heat up.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Oilers - Predators Game Day

The Predators host the Edmonton Oilers tonight at the Sommet Center, and by my count, this marks the 18th time in 19 home games that the Predators have hosted a game against a team that has played the night before; last night, the Oilers won in St. Louis 3-2 in overtime, on the strength of two goals by Dustin Penner (a nice boost for the Fab Forecheckers, my fantasy hockey team). Before winning last night against the Blues, Edmonton had gone 0-4-2 in their last six to seperate themselves from the rest of the Northwest Division, seven points behind 4th-place Colorado. Even their 17-20-4 record is a bit overly optimistic, as 10 of those victories have come via the shootout, rather than during regular action. You have to give credit to the Oilers for their success in the post-overtime spectacle, but it's hardly a reliable way to rack up points in the standings. In their only previous meeting this season on November 2nd, the Predators won 4-1 in Edmonton, during their successful western Canada road trip.

On the Nashville side, it looks like David Legwand and Ryan Suter will continue to recover from various injuries despite practicing Wednesday, while Shea Weber will likely be out for another week. The relevant question, as posited by John Glennon of the Tennessean yesterday, is what Barry Trotz will do with rookie Ville Koistinen when the regulars return to the lineup. Koistinen has been outstanding (arguably their best 5-on-5 player) so far this year, particularly since Christmas as he's logged 20+ minutes a game and has shown great poise playing alongside Marek Zidlicky at even strength, and on the power play has consistently gotten the puck on net, a failing of other Nashville blueliners so far. Will GM David Poile address the blue line glut via trade? I would think that unlikely, until he knows for sure whether Steve Sullivan can come back as a healthy contributor. But if any Eastern Conference teams are looking for some young defensemen and have a scoring winger to offer in trade, please contact the Predators front office, won't you?

In goal, Dan Ellis gets the start after his 1-0 shutout in Dallas on New Year's Eve. Tonight, the Predators are running a promotion where the donation of a non-perishable food item will get kids a $1 ticket to the game, so we're going to bring all 3 of the Little Forecheckers tonight and allow them a late night out since school is still on winter break. By all means get the word out to your friends and coworkers, and let them know about this cheap family night out...

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Preds Shine, deep in the heart of Texas

No Shea Weber, no Ryan Suter, and no David Legwand was supposed to mean that the Predators pretty much had no shot last night in Dallas, facing one of the top teams in the Western Conference. Heck, during the first half of the telecast Dallas color man Darryl Reaugh must have mentioned Nashville's offseason personnel purge a dozen times or more, portraying the Preds as a hapless bunch who had only shown up to help the Stars get their New Year's Eve party off to a rollicking start.

Instead, the team put together a classic road-team effort en route to a 1-0 victory that really wasn't that close. Nashville was the quicker team all night long and got a multitude of good chances, but Marty Turco was excellent in goal for Dallas, otherwise it would have been 3-0 or 4-0 easily.

A few things in particular stood out; the penalty killing was simply outstanding, with the forwards staying up high to choke off the Dallas point men, where Sergei Zubov twice got caught flat-footed by Scott Nichol, who took the puck the other way for breakaways. While he got a penalty shot out of the first and failed to score on either chance, the bottom line is that out of six Dallas power plays, the Stars managed only 1 Shot On Goal, while the shorthanded Predators threw 6 at Turco. Granted, the Dallas power play had a poor night, but the Nashville penalty killers jumped on their opportunity.

Secondly I have to point out the continued fine play of rookie defenseman Ville Koistinen, who is looking more and more comfortable with each passing game. He put a point shot off the goalpost on the power play, and continually got the offense moving out of the Nashville end with his skating and crisp passing. At one point in the third, Reaugh commented, "I know why they let Timonen go, if Koistinen can play like this every night."

Thursday night the Predators host Edmonton, and the team is having a promotion where the donation of a non-perishable food item can get a child a $1 ticket to the game. With the kids still out of school for winter break, this sounds like the perfect opportunity for us to take all the Little Forecheckers to a game together, rather than taking one at a time. So if you happen to see a 4 year-old climb over the glass and streak the crowd Thursday night, well, that one's probably mine...