HTTP/1.1 301 Moved Permanently Location: http://www.ontheforecheck.com/ Content-Type: text/html Content-Length: 174 Moved

Moved

This page has moved to http://www.ontheforecheck.com.

On the Forecheck: July 2007 - NHL Stats, Analysis, and Opinion

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Locals to sign for Preds tomorrow?

The Tennessean is reporting this afternoon that the local group of businessmen seeking to purchase the Nashville Predators plan on signing a Letter of Intent on Wednesday, giving them a window of exclusive negotiating opportunity with current owner Craig Leipold, and is a preliminary step towards them putting hard cash on the table around the middle of August.

This would basically be the same step that Jim Balsillie took with Leipold back in May when this whole drama got rolling, but since the local group plans to make every effort to make this team successful in Nashville, there wouldn't seem to be any extraordinary obstacles to overcome in closing this deal, outside of the usual due diligence that takes place in any such transaction.

Combine this with encouraging reports from the Nashville Post regarding the season-ticket push (over 8,400 and counting two months before the start of the season), and the fact that the "Our Team Nashville" coalition is only just mobilizing their efforts in the corporate community, and it looks like this summer of worry and fear for Nashville hockey fans might have a more hopeful conclusion. The best case scenario would have ownership change hands around the start of the season, so GM David Poile can have a clear salary mandate and scan the trading landscape right away. Since the team is already positioned right around the salary cap minimum, any infusion of operating capital would mean the opportunity to add a difference-making player to an already-competitive lineup.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 2 comments links to this post

Let's go to the phones

Now that the bulk of the free agent signings are behind us, and we face a dearth of hockey news leading up to the beginning of training camps, I'm working on formalizing the data that I use into fixed database structures, rather than the ad-hoc spreadsheets I've been using previously. While I'm doing that, I wanted to poll ye dwellers of this vast connection of tubes called the Internet and get your thoughts:

When it comes to statistical analysis, what areas of the game do you think deserve more attention?

My research assistant is standing by!

Remember that I can only deal with the information publicly available, so while it would be neat to know "time on attack" or "successful pass percentage" information, to my knowledge it doesn't exist in any public forum. To jump-start your brain cells, here are a couple things I'm thinking of:

1) Look at team performance in the period of time after individual players take a Fighting major, to see if there is any verifiable "momentum" endowed on a team when particular players fight as opposed to others. Lots of people assume such a boost exists, but can we identify it?

2) Back-testing the PythagenPuck model that was used in November to predict that the Senators would end up alright despite their sub-.500 record at the time, and determine at what time it starts to become a reliable gauge of a team's prospects. Is it 10 games? 15 games? 20?

3) Back-testing the playoff prediction model I used this spring to see if some of the parameters can be tweaked to make it more accurate, and also see how it might have performed during the regular season.

So please, fire away in the comments and let me know where you think the spotlight should be directed...

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 8 comments links to this post

Sunday, July 29, 2007

A Miracle On The Pitch?

Considering the fact that I was just reminiscing earlier this week about the Miracle On Ice, it's worth taking a moment to reflect on a sporting miracle that may well turn out to be just as significant for the people of Iraq. Even worse than the "malaise" that affected the U.S. in 1980, as recession at home and waning influence abroad sapped American confidence, the tragedy that is modern-day Iraq has brought murder, desolation, and hopelessness to every corner of that war-torn nation.

The Iraqi soccer team defeated three-time champion Saudi Arabia to capture the Asian Cup today, with a team composed of Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish members, defeating heavily-favored opposition all along the way. For one day, at least, the people of Iraq have a public example of successful cooperation to celebrate. Twenty or thirty years from now, will middle-aged Iraqis look back on this team with the same kind of feelings that Americans still hold for the boys of Lake Placid?

I sure hope so.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 1 comments links to this post

Friday, July 27, 2007

Another one bites the (gold) dust

The great Arbitration Scoreboard now reads 18 settlements, 1 ruling, and 11 players with hearings yet to occur, after Derek Roy hit the jackpot in a new six-year, $24 million deal with the Buffalo Sabres. Is it just me, or does that sound like a lot of dough? I guess with Briere and Drury gone, Roy becomes that much more critical to the Buffalo attack. This contract would certainly seem to indicate that he'll be adding to the 18:27 he averaged on the ice last season, most likely picking up some additional power play duty - whether his 5'9" 188# frame can handle that workload will be a critical question come playoff time.

It looks like there will be slim pickings for any GM's hoping to scoop up players whose original team walks away from an arbitration award, as was the case with J.P. Dumont and Vitali Vishnevski last summer. Yeesh, if it wasn't for Krazy Kevin Lowe up in Edmonton, we wouldn't have much to talk about at all this summer!

Labels: ,

Permanent LinkMain Page 0 comments links to this post

Might local ownership be close to landing the Predators?

There's an interesting column in this morning's Tennessean by David Climer, who has typically been pessimistic about hockey's chances in Nashville.  According to Climer, "a proposed local ownership group is getting very close to putting a deal together to purchase the Predators from Craig Leipold. An announcement could be forthcoming by early next week."  If indeed true, it marks considerable progress for a group that banded together only after current owner Craig Leipold announced his intent to sell the team to Jim Balsillie just two months ago.

The two most visible members of this local group are David Freeman and Herb Fritch.  Freeman is a venture capitalist after having sold Commodore Medical Services, and Fritch is the CEO of HealthSpring, a health insurance company operating in five states.
 
Another point in the Climer piece says that the local group may well get assistance from an out-of-state party, with an implication that Boots Del Biaggio, or at least his investment firm Sand Hill Capital, could add cash or financing to the offer.  If true, that's a scenario anticipated in a column over at the Nashville Post a couple weeks ago by Richard Lawson and Ken Whitehouse. 
 
If things do actually come together over the next several weeks, the NHL could be looking at a real juggernaut developing in Music City.  GM David Poile has trimmed the payroll, but savvy acquisitions and a strong core of young players have already ensured a competitive lineup for next season.  With money left to spend in order to reach the salary cap minimum, if fresh ownership arrives and gives him clearance to move even modestly above that floor (say by $4-6 million) Poile might have the opportunity to land a true difference-maker either in free agency or by trade.  Sometimes early in a season when a big-spending team flops out of the gate they become interested in dumping salary, and that might provide the opportunity for Poile to jump on.

Permanent LinkMain Page 0 comments links to this post

A new (old) take on the Miracle?

I have no idea whether this is legit or not (nor, frankly do I think it matters much), but over on the Predators message boards someone posted a video from YouTube that's the perfect cure those summertime hockey-withdrawal blues. I know it got the hair on the back of my neck standing up, like it does every time...

Permanent LinkMain Page 1 comments links to this post

Thursday, July 26, 2007

The Offer Sheet Wars Continue

The new Madman of Alberta, aka Edmonton Oilers GM Kevin Lowe, has tried to spice things up once again this summer.  After failing to obtain restricted free agent Tomas Vanek from Buffalo with a $7 million/year deal, he has now extended an offer sheet to Dustin Penner of the Anaheim Ducks for more than $4 million per season for five years!  Yes, he's giving that much to a guy coming off a rookie year on a Stanley Cup championship squad.  Granted, he scored 29 goals (against a Shot Quality-based Expected Goals value of 28.8, so its not like he was just a lucky shooter), but this would appear to be another case of a GM falling in love with a big guy and projecting only the positives going forward, a la Chris Gratton.
 
It will be interesting to see the reaction in Anaheim, where GM Brian Burke has never been shy of showing his feelings in the media.  Buffalo GM Darcy Regeir whined pathetically about retaliation down the road when the Vanek offer came through, but I'm guessing Burke's response will be a bit more direct.

Permanent LinkMain Page 1 comments links to this post

Predators Sign Martin Gelinas

The Nashville Predators announced this afternoon that they've signed veteran winger Martin Gelinas to a one-year deal.  While it's been a long time since he was in Edmonton, he does have a Stanley Cup ring and should certainly bring some veteran poise, along with 15-20 goals, to the Preds forward lineup.  Last season he scored 14 goals but Shot Quality would have given an Expected Goals figure of 19.6, so it's possible he could get back to the 20-goal mark in Nashville depending on his linemates and role.  Along with the signings earlier this summer of Radek Bonk and Jed Ortmeyer, it appears the Preds will be a more balanced, convential squad than the run-and-gun offensively oriented team of last year.
 
Up front, then, it looks like the Preds stack up as follows:
 
RW:  Radulov, Dumont, Erat, Ortmeyer
LW:  Sullivan, Gelinas, Hordichuk
C:  Arnott, Legwand, Bonk, Nichol
Spare:  Fiddler, Tootoo & Smithson
 
It looks like there's still going to be some decent offensive punch on whatever the 3rd line turns out to be.  For instance, I'd expect Arnott & Dumont to remain together, along with Legwand & Erat.  That leaves room to put a guy like Gelinas or even Tootoo up on one of those two lines, and have a 3rd line with Bonk centering Sullivan and/or Radulov.  Training camp is going to be an interesting time, to be sure.  Coach Trotz has plenty of tools to work with, but coming up with the right combinations might take a little time.
 

Permanent LinkMain Page 3 comments links to this post

Sticks and Stones May Break My Bones, But Arbitration...

This has got to be the most disappointing arbitration season in recent memory. Out of 30 players who were headed to arbitration, 16 have already reached settlements with their clubs prior to the session, including some accomplished young players like Ray Emery and Lee Stempniak. Only Brooks Laich has actually gone through with his hearing so far, but nobody's going to get excited over a depth center snagging $725,000.

So what's going on here? Is it that teams are fearful of what the awards might be and offer settlements to avoid getting burned, or are players looking around and not finding "comparables" inspiring enough to go after the big bucks? Or is it that both sides don't want to hurt each other's feelings, especially when the team has every intention of holding on to the player?

Perhaps Mike Cammalleri will still go through with the process and land the kind of contract that makes his team think twice, but according to NHLNumbers.com, the Kings have plenty of cap room available to absorb whatever salary he's likely to get.

Last summer, you had J.P. Dumont and Vitaly Vishnevski receive judgements that their teams walked away from (anyone else that I missed?), which added to the free agency crop and for Nashville at least, provided the opportunity to land a consistent scoring winger who is perhaps entering his NHL prime. It's too bad we couldn't have more fireworks at this time, so hockey could get some press for actual hockey-related news, rather than all the nonsense going on in the NFL, NBA, and MLB.

Labels: ,

Permanent LinkMain Page 0 comments links to this post

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Break out the Two Buck Chuck!

On Monday I took a stab at what Brooks Laich's arbitration hearing with the Washington Capitals might look like, and at the risk of dislocating my shoulder patting myself on the back, it pretty much turned out as expected. I guessed he'd get around $700,000 and he ended up with $725K according to TSN.

Considering that his qualifying offer from the Caps was around $660,000, I guess that's a small victory for Laich (you won't catch me frowning at an extra 10% raise), but you have to wonder how his agent feels about this. He just put in the time and effort to file and plead an arbitration case that yielded peanuts for an agent earning a few percentage points of Laich's salary (figure a 5% commision on the increased salary of $65,000 is worth a mighty $3,250). Did they really think there was any large upside here? I guess since Laich was in no danger of exceeding the $1.2 million mark, beyond which the Caps would have had the right to walk away from the deal (much as Buffalo did last summer with J.P. Dumont) Laich's agent may have decided they didn't have much to lose.
You know it's the dog days of summer when this is the kind of news we have to write about!

UPDATE: Many thanks to Jeff and JP in the comments for pointing out that perhaps Laich's big gain here is winning a one-way contract that should keep him in the NHL all season, rather than a two-way deal that could have had him playing in Hershey given all the acquisitions Washington's been making lately.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 5 comments links to this post

Monday, July 23, 2007

Pure as the ice they play on? Don't bet on it!

Articles are flowing fast and furious proclaiming the great fortune of Gary Bettman to be at the helm of the NHL, rather than one of the pro sports that seem to be wrapped up in talk of steroids, gambling, or abominable cruelty.

Before we hockey fans feel too content about our sport's innate purity, recall that the NHL has had its scandals, too. As always, Joe Pelletier's Legends of Hockey provides historical context for all of us. (Fittingly enough, this was passed along to me while watching High Roller - The Stu Ungar Story). Corrupt officials, players leaking information to gambling interests, etc., all lie in the NHL's past. You have to love the story of Boston Bruin Don Gallinger, however; for in the middle of an illicit operation his competitive instincts still came through:
Investigations found Gallinger betting as much as $1000 on games involving the Bruins. Strangely enough, his $1000 bet was on a game against Chicago where he expected the Blackhawks to win. Boston would win that game, with Gallinger scoring the very important tying goal.
As is the case with Joe, I've taken an endorsement from BetUS.com, an offshore sports book, and would caution any of you to enjoy such pursuits as entertainment within the bounds of common sense. Gambling is just one of many endeavors that can take a powerfully addictive turn, and if you find yourself betting on games because you actually need the money, or know a friend or family member heading down that road, by all means get some help ASAP.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 3 comments links to this post

Brooks Laich and the Caps kick off Salary Arbitration

Oh, to be a fly on the wall during Salary Arbitration.  Today we have Brooks Laich of the Washington Capitals leading off, with Ray Emery's hearing coming tomorrow.
 
What the Capitals might say:  Eight goals?  You're taking us to arbitration after scoring eight goals on 119 shots?  That's one of the worst
shooting percentages in the league for a centerman, and it's not like you just had a down year, as 2005-6 looked pretty much the same.  Using Behind the Net's On/Off-Ice Plus-Minus figures, it looks like the Caps fare only marginally better when Laich is on the ice.  We can't see raising last year's salary of $606,000 by a significant amount.
 
What Brooks Laich might say:  I'm developing into the defensive-minded center that can help hold down a late lead (where the Caps need help) by preventing opposing shots after faceoffs in our own zone.  That is an area I've improved in since last year, and I've emerged as one of the league's best in that regard.  Along with that, I was 15th among NHL centers in terms of Blocked Shots, trailing a number of players who received significantly more ice time.  You've got other guys to shoot the puck - the Caps need someone who can help turn some of those Ovechkin highlights into points in the standings.

What the arbitrator might say:  Boy, talk about starting the Arbitration Season off with an exhibition match.  Those defensive aspects are somewhat noteworthy, so let's give him $700,000 and call it a day.  Next time, kid, score some goals before you roll the dice like this again.  If a center can't hit double-digits in goals, chances are he'll never get a seven-figure salary.

Permanent LinkMain Page 4 comments links to this post

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Sour Balls

According to a column by Scott Burnside at ESPN.com now working its way through the news cycle, Jim Balsillie's camp is alleging that Gary Bettman interfered in his negotiations with Craig Leipold to purchase the Nashville Predators.

Excuse me, but is this really news? After having assured Bettman prior to the Stanley Cup Finals that he had no intention of relocating the team, and Bettman communicating to Balsillie that he expected him to make a good-faith go at making it work in Nashville, it became apparent that Balsillie had no intention of living up to either of those points. There was serious potential for a nasty legal battle if Balsillie continued pursuing "Hamilton or Bust" as his ownership philosophy, and in light of that, it makes sense that Bettman would put the brakes on things in order to protect the league (and any other owners who hoped to negotiate such leases in the future) from harm.

All we have here are some smoking emails (presumably leaked by Richard Rodier to stoke the "Fire Bettman" flames) that tell us a story we already knew. Balsillie's rash tactics sent alarm bells ringing, and Bettman did his job to protect the league's interests.

Jim Balsillie may well make a good NHL owner eventually (although I begin to doubt this more by the day), but he needs to play by the rules in order to join the club. The counterpoint to him perhaps is Boots Del Biaggio, who seems to be charting a patient, reasoned course towards franchise ownership. With multiple parties out there seeking expansion and franchise purchase opportunities, Balsillie needs to realize that the NHL isn't desperate for his money. If he truly wants to realize his dream of owning a team, he'll have to use a more politically savvy strategy to get there.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 1 comments links to this post

Friday, July 20, 2007

Will the gambling referee keep hockey out of Vegas?

Today's news that the FBI is investigating an NBA referee for allegedly betting on basketball games, including ones that he was working, is sure to send shockwaves throughout professional basketball.  What might it mean for potential NHL expansion into Las Vegas, however?  For decades major league sports has avoided all serious talk of setting up shop in America's gambling mecca, and now we have just the sort of story that has kept the big leagues away.
 
Now to be fair, we have to remember that sports gambling goes far beyond Las Vegas.  As Murray Weiss' column in the NY Post today says, "sports betting in Nevada represents a fraction of sports betting worldwide, with 98.5 percent of all action taken outside the state."
 
If anything, at least the modern casinos in Vegas would be better placed to enforce standards and controls to help avoid such activity, as opposed to other, illicit outfits spread around the country.  In other words, even if a team was based locally, I'd worry more about an illegal gambling ring somewhere else pulling this kind of stunt rather than a regulated casino operator.  See Operation Slapshot...
 
My thought would be that this scandal shouldn't pose any additional obstacle to bringing the NHL to Las Vegas.  But I'm sure we'll see someone making just that point sometime in the next few days.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 1 comments links to this post

Fiddler's Fortune

For most, the line on the sports tickler regarding Vernon Fiddler's two-year contract with the Nashville Predators would appear to be just another marginal player filling out a roster spot, nothing interesting there.

But when you look at his career, you have to feel good about a guy like Fiddler earning some NHL money. Take a look at his career stats, and you'll see a guy who came out of Junior to toil through four years of ECHL & AHL play before landing a full-time gig with Nashville last year. After that long a time, surely the pressure to give up the NHL dream and "get a real job" must have been tremendous. In the two seasons prior to the lockout he'd been called up for less than 20 NHL games a year, but now at the ripe old age of 27, he's finally arrived as an NHL regular. If a guy like Fiddler can make it, perhaps there's a chance for us beer-leaguers?

OK, maybe not. It's still a nice story, though.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 1 comments links to this post

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Seven Quick Thoughts from the Predators Rally

Tonight's "Our Team" rally at the Sommet Center was a truly inspiring event. As a born-and-raised Red Wings fan who has lived here in Tennessee for just under two years, I can say that tonight I've drunk the Kool-Aid and am 100% on board with these Nashville Predators. The fan base, the corporate community, and the members of the organization itself have been energized to solidify the future of hockey in Nashville, and rather than go into a detailed blow-by-blow I just wanted to share some of the highlights from tonight's festivities. One fan's pictures can be found over at Flickr, and John Glennon has posted his story this evening over at the Tennessean.

1. Walking into the arena and seeing the floor filled and people sitting throughout the lower bowl, all for just a few short minutes of speeches, cheers, and video highlights.

2. Watching Gov. Bredesen grab this sign from a fan near the front and wave it for the crowd and the assorted news photographers. For those who may not be aware, Bredesen was previously mayor of Nashville and was a major force behind getting the arena built and landing an NHL team.

Nashville hockey fans send a clear message
Pic from Geek Thoughts

3. Seeing Vernon Fiddler, David Legwand and Ryan Suter appear in the new home & away jerseys. Head to the Flickr album linked above to take a look, I think they're pretty snazzy.

4. Meeting George Plaster and congratulating him on assembling this rally. I also took the opportunity to pass him a business card and plug my blog work - George, if you ever need another voice on the radio to talk hockey...

5. Hearing throughout the day various members of the Preds organization making commitments to buy season tickets of their own to help boost the cause. Guys like David Poile, Barry Trotz, Chris Mason and David Legwand have a pretty good view of the game action already - but they have all stepped up and put their money down as a sign that they want to remain in Nashville. Heck, today I heard David Poile talking optimistically for the first time since the Forsberg deal. The poor guy has been through the wringer the last several weeks.

6. Hearing the heartfelt roar from the crowd whenever the term "send a message up north" was used. It would be nice to assume that others are out there are pulling for Nashville to come together and keep the team, but the vast majority of commentary out there has been extremely vindictive and derogatory, mostly from individuals posting after news stories, but among the professional writers as well. About the only person outside Nashville rooting for Preds fans that I've seen is Eklund, who flew in for the day and sat in on the radiothon.

7. When I bought my partial season ticket plan at lunch time, I was able to walk right up to the ticket window and make my purchase, and at that time they had gotten around halfway to the stated goal of 300 Full Season Ticket Equivalents being sold today. By the time I left the rally around 7:30 tonight, over 700 FSTE's had been sold, and the line at the ticket window was at least 30 people long. Add to that the people still calling in, along with the money raised by local efforts to purchase tickets for charities, and I'm guessing the number we'll hear tomorrow morning will be impressive indeed.

Labels: ,

Permanent LinkMain Page 10 comments links to this post

Report from the Our Team rally in Nashville

The "Our Team" rally in Nashville appears well on the way to achieving its goal of demonstrating increased fan support for the Predators and building a foundation to first achieve the magic 14,000 figure, and work towards long-term financial stability as well.  The radiothon started at 6 a.m. and runs until 9:00 p.m. this evening, and coordinator George Plaster has talked of a target to sell 300-500 Full Seaason Ticket Equivalents.  As of 2:47 p.m., they are over the 315 mark and the 6 p.m. rally has yet to come. 
 
I went down to the Sommet Center on my lunch hour and purchased a box lunch for $5, with the proceeds going to the Predators Foundation.  The place was abuzz with activity, so to pass some time I picked up a price list, and started walking through the arena to check out the available seats, which were labelled conveniently.  The minimum partial ticket plan available today was for 13 home dates, which sounded a little daunting for my personal situation.  The Little Forecheckers are 5, 5, and 4, so babysitting costs alone would probably equal the cost of tickets for my wife and I to attend 13 games.  I figured I'd have to wait until later in the summer and perhaps go for a 6-pack plan or something smaller.  Then the idea hit me...
 
At this age, it's a great time to start introducing my kids to NHL hockey.  So I called the wife, ran the idea by her that we could use some of the games for just one of us to take one of the kids, and let them take turns, thus saving on the bulk of the babysitting.  Before I even finished my thought, she replied, "that's a great idea, go do it."  A few minutes later, I'm a proud partial season ticket holder.  As I've written before, I've been incredibly lucky to see some incredible NHL games over the course of time for free.  Well, I've been a freeloader for far too long, and I'm excited about the chance to have regular seats to watch what should be an excellent team this season, and especially to introduce the Little Forecheckers to live NHL action.  I went down to the Pro Shop at the Sommet Center since it was running an 80% off sale, and got shirts for all three of them.  When I head back down there for the rally I may pick up a jersey as well.
 
I also took the chance to introduce myself to Eklund, who flew down for the day and had nothing but good things to say about Nashville as a hockey town and the Predators as an outstanding young team.  As far as I can tell he's been the only prominent figure outside Nashville openly pushing for the team to stay, and for that, Preds fans are grateful.  He seemed to be quite friendly and greeted many fans who walked up to shake his hand during radio breaks.
 
I'll check back in after the rally this evening.

Permanent LinkMain Page 0 comments links to this post

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

A tough road back to the playoffs for the Flyers?

Will the acquisition of Daniel Briere, Kimmo Timonen, and Scott Hartnell be enough to get the Philadelphia Flyers back into the postseason next spring? The Super Schedule might hold some clues in that regard...

Thanks to feedback from one anonymous reader, I've added Time Zone for the location of each game to the NHL Super Schedule available over at Google. I've also added a H/R (Home/Road) column for easy use in breaking down schedules in that fashion. As to examples of how one might actually use this information, I've included a chart I whipped up in a couple minutes:



This shows the average 5-on-5 Goals For/Against ratio (based on 2006-7 results) for opponents in each game of the Philadelphia Flyers upcoming schedule, with a moving average trendline in black, and the actual numbers in blue/green (game numbers are given along the horizontal axis). Forgive the aesthetic flourishes, but I felt the need to fumble around a bit in Excel 2007 and see what some of the pretty buttons did.

Anyways, the quick & dirty assessment here is that the Flyers get a relatively easy schedule in the early part of the season (most opponents finished last season below 1.00, the break-even mark), but from Game 60 on, Philadelphia looks to face pretty hefty opposition, and may end up having difficulty earning critical points down the stretch. Surely their talent level has improved this summer, but will it be enough?

Not that this was any kind of exhaustive analysis, but I just wanted to demonstrate what you (yes, YOU!) can do with the super-improved, mega-deluxe, NHL Super Schedule. If you see something else you'd like added to the spreadsheet, just drop a request in the comments and I'll see what I can do.

P.S.: I'd recommend checking the comments in the original Super Schedule post, as Matt has done some fine work digging up info on some of the worst road trips in 2007-8, including three teams that go on NINE-game expeditions!

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 0 comments links to this post

Quick Housekeeping Note

Sorry about the pictures not showing up in the post below about divisions and travel - Blogger Mobile isn't cooperating with me at the moment, so I'll have to fix it this evening.
 
Don't be surprised to see lots of goofiness if you cruise by tonight, as I'll be rearranging the furniture a bit.  Doesn't TLC have a Blog Template Makeover show yet?  I could sure use some help...

Permanent LinkMain Page 1 comments links to this post

A Picture is worth 1000 words, or a spreadsheet

Here's a graphical followup on the issue of travel schedules in the NHL. Over at CalgaryPuck.com, forum users took an image from Sportsline.com and provided some additional insight into divisional setup. First, the overall view:
Secondly, there were splits added for division and conference splits:
Now, if we add in expansion teams for Kansas City and Las Vegas, what might make sense from a geographic perspective? I took the images and mocked up some lines of my own. Let's try eight divisions with four teams each:
The tricky thing here is what do about Detroit and/or Columbus. Both would seem to be good candidates to move to the Eastern Conference, but you know the Western Conference teams like having the Red Wings come to town to guarantee good crowds. This option has Nashville moving to the East to join up with more natural rivals in Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Florida. But what if we tossed the Blue Jackets over to the East instead?
This might appear to be a pretty workable solution, actually. For those who wonder why Columbus should head east rather than Detroit, I'd note that in this picture Pittsburgh should actually be in the southwest corner of Pennsylvania, and is actually pretty close to Columbus (163 miles, equal to their distance from Detroit). As much as it would stink for the Red Wings to be the only Eastern time zone team in the West, it's gotta be somebody.
Whatever happens in the next few years, I think we can all agree that more interconference games need to occur, so the big stars in this league get into as many different cities as possible.

Permanent LinkMain Page 3 comments links to this post

Local ownership wins out for the Predators?

So right before heading off to bed (after watching Shooter, which I heartily recommend) I checked in on the Predators message boards, and found an interesting nugget of news. Yes, the source here is a rumor site, but the following was posted at Hockeybuzz late Tuesday night:
I have received word from a good source that Craig Leipold is meeting Gary Bettman on Wednesday morning in New York, along with representatives from the potential local ownership group.

According to the source, Leipold is planning on signing a letter of intent to sell the franchise, either to the local group or to "Boots" Del Biaggio at this meeting. Given that members of the Nashville group will be accompanying Mr. Leipold to New York, one can assume that Kansas City will have to wait a little longer for the team that they quite possibly have been promised.
Frankly I'd be a little surprised to see Hockeybuzz scoop the Nashville Post on this, as they've regularly been in the lead on this story. If true, however, this will certainly add fuel to what will be an energy-filled rally on Thursday at the Sommet Center to support the team. While the due diligence process will surely take weeks or months (meaning new money won't be available for summer free agents), a binding agreement with a local ownership group would be a huge boost for local hockey fans who have had to endure an uncomfortable summer so far.

UPDATE: The Tennessean is also running this story, with the clarification that this step would precede the signing of an actual binding agreement. One would have to think that the local group would move much more smoothly through this process than Jim Balsillie's ramrod attempt did.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 0 comments links to this post

Monday, July 16, 2007

Predators belly up to the bargain bin

The Tennessean reported this morning that the Predators have signed Greg Zanon, Darcy Hordichuk and Kevin Klein to new contracts, along with two of this year's draft picks.

David Poile really loves those "20% off used player" coupons...

Zanon stepped in and logged solid playing time as a stay-at-home defenseman last season, killing 4:09 of PK time per game in 66 appearances. He's the type of guy that nobody really notices out there, which for a blueliner, can be a very good thing indeed. Zanon also led the team with 189 Blocked Shots, good for 8th in the league - that kind of commitment to team success could keep Zanon in the NHL for quite a while. His deal is for two years, averaging $725,000.

Klein is one of the Predators' top prospects, and is expected to make the leap to NHL duty this fall. He's one of the reasons the team was able to deal away Ryan Parent to Philadelphia in the Peter Forsberg trade. He signed for one year at $500,000.

Hordichuk is a workmanlike banger who accepted his qualifying offer of $517,000 for next season, but it remains to be seen how much of a role he'll have this year. He's coming off a lackluster campaign wherin he played a team-low 4:48 per game.

These signings should pretty much wrap up the offseason transactions for Nashville*(update below), as Vernon Fiddler remains the only unsigned free agent. Considering the constraints he's been working under, GM David Poile has done an admirable job putting together what looks to be a strong defensive team. It certainly looks different from last season's offensive attack that went three lines deep, but on paper this appears to be a playoff team that may in fact be more balanced than the crew that got bounced in the first round for the third consecutive season.

UPDATE: Silly me, I left out the important factor of the Salary Cap Minimum which remains to be achieved. Depending on whose numbers you look at, there may well be around $2-2.5 million yet to spend before the first puck drops in October.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 2 comments links to this post

Sunday, July 15, 2007

A deeper look at the NHL schedule

Last season the topic of epic NHL road travels came up, with perhaps the worst being a home-and-home series between St. Louis and Colorado which had the teams playing one night in Denver, then traveling some 850 miles to play again the next night in St. Louis. Rather than dig through the schedule line by line and look for similar instances this season, I thought I'd bring the wonderful power of spreadsheets to bear on the problem.

And then I thought, the heck with just distance traveled, let's toss some other information in there as well, and open it up so any out there who wants to examine different aspects of the upcoming NHL schedule can do so on their own. So I'd like to present to you my "NHL Super Schedule", published online over at Google Spreadsheets and free for anyone to download and utilize how they see fit.

It may choke your browser to work with it on Google, but I believe you can easily save it off into Excel or Open Office as you prefer.

So what's in there? Let's walk through the columns I've set up:

Team: The team's 3 letter abbreviation (i.e. ANA, BUF)
Game: The game number within that team's 82-game schedule
Date: Day of game
Visitor: Visiting team's name
Home: Home team's name
Time: Time of game, all in Eastern Time
Days Gap: Days since that team's previous game (i.e. back-to-back = 1)
Distance: Distance in miles (as the crow flies) from the previous game. All Game 1's set to 0. All values obtained from a Google Maps mashup posted here.
Division: Division of the team in question
Opponent: Opponent's 3 letter abbreviation
Opp Win%: Opponent's win percentage from the 2006-7 regular season
Opp G/G: Opponent's Goals Per Game from 2006-7
Opp GA/G: Opponent's Goals Allowed Per Game from 2006-7
Opp 5-5 F/A: Opponent's 5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio from 2006-7
Opp PP%: Opponent's Power Play % from 2006-7
Opp PK%: Opponent's Penalty Kill % from 2006-7
Opp Shts/G: Opponent's Shots Per Game from 2006-7
Opp SA/G: Opponent's Shots Allowed Per Game from 2006-7

So how can you use this? Checking out who has the furthest to travel for games on consecutive nights is a start. That honor goes to the Vancouver Canucks, who play at Edmonton on November 20, then have to fly 1,090 miles to play the Wild in Minnesota the next evening. You can summarize and sort the teams based on greatest and least travel. Who's going to face the toughest defensive teams on the road this year? Whose goalie is going to see the most rubber flying his way? How do the divisions compare?

I don't know the answer to many of these questions (yet). But I've done the work in putting this spreadsheet together, and now you can look for them yourself, and probably come up with more interesting questions to ask as well. Enjoy, and by all means leave your suggestions for additional columns. I plan on beefing this up considerably over the course of the season.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 17 comments links to this post

Thursday, July 12, 2007

New NHL uniforms a revenue source?

Now here's a terrifying thought for hockey fans. In light of the continuing difficulty in generating significant national TV revenue in the US, will the NHL succumb to pressure and permit advertising on uniforms? Before reacting with a quick "never!", consider that there was a time when we didn't have ads plastered around the boards or painted under the ice, either.

Your new Florida Panthers jersey, perhaps?
Photo from The Post-Pessimist Association

The article below discusses the debut of jersey-based advertisement in the US in Major League Soccer, particularly in light of the debut of some Beckham character. I wouldn't expect we'd see such a development anytime soon in the NHL, but these kinds of slopes tend to be pretty slippery...


Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 4 comments links to this post

Blogroll addition: Interchangeable Parts

Today I had one of those "huh? They're not on the blogroll already?" moments that tells me I need to keep up with the housekeeping around here. Interchangeable Parts is a lively New Jersey Devils-oriented blog run by the intimidatingly named Pookie & Schnookie. Head on over and enjoy...

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 1 comments links to this post

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Game blogging restrictions coming to the NHL?

This story from the Miami Herald mostly discusses the NFL's draconian content usage guidelines, but there is a line in there about the NHL drafting up a policy for the upcoming 2007-8 season, and that along with the NBA and MLB, "the leagues agree that real-time play-by-play blogs should be considered a violation of broadcast rights."

So what could this mean in practical terms? Somebody sitting on press row banging out detailed accounts is probably one thing, while drunken live-blogging by fans at home is presumably something else entirely. I can just imagine the scene...

*knock* *knock* *knock*
The Fuzz: "Mr. Sleek, we have a cease-and-desist order, please open the door."
Sleek: "Go away man, Sammy Pahlsson just came out for the PK and I'm not, err... decent."

*CRASH*
The Fuzz: "That's it Mr. Sleek, put down the mouse and the bottle of bourbon and back away from the computer..."



It will be interesting once all these new policies come out, to see how the NHL compares to the other major sports leagues. Over the last couple years the league has been very proactive in embracing the web, and I would expect that to continue going forward.

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 1 comments links to this post

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Nashville Post declares Balsillie's bid DOA

Breaking news today at the Nashville Post indicates that Jim Balsillie has basically dropped out of the running to buy the Nashville Predators. According to the Post, the team is continuing discussions with Boots DelBiaggio as well as a group of local investors.

Besides the update that Balsillie is apparently out of the deal, Richard Dawson and Ken Whitehouse discuss an interesting possibility: that of the two competing interests actually joining together in keeping the Preds in Nashville.

Del Biaggio's choice could be to stick it out in Nashville and build on the established base. He still, however, would need support from the corporate community as much as Leipold.

That's where the local group could come in again if it loses the bidding on the team. Clearly, the local group is interested in keeping the team here. It could invest with Del Biaggio, if he's interested, and not spend nearly as much as it would on buying the team. Quite possibly, the group would be interested in such an investment if Del Biaggio wants to keep the team here.


This is a pretty interesting notion, in that as a current minority partner in an NHL team, Del Biaggio is much more likely to play "by the rules" and make a legitimate attempt to makes things work in Nashville before trying to force the issue of relocation. With an organized and motivated business community having come together over the last few months, this path forward looks increasingly more likely every day.

By the way, I would recommend anybody following the Predators sale to keep tabs on the Nashville Post. It's a local business-oriented paper that has regularly been out in front of the general media on this story, and was the outlet that first broke the story of the franchise sale to begin with back in May.

Labels: ,

Permanent LinkMain Page 6 comments links to this post

Monday, July 09, 2007

Seven Wonders of the Hockey World

Here's something silly to keep you occupied during this week. As detailed below, there are a new "Seven Wonders of the World", as voted upon in a worldwide internet survey (is there any better way to decide an issue? Of course not, wrote the intrepid blogger).

So here's your challenge - what would be considered the Seven Wonders of the Hockey World? If you had a shortlist of hockey-related trips you could make, which would make the cut? My suggestions are included a little further down, and include either places or specific events. Sound off in the comments, and next week I'll summarize the results.

Update: Greg Wyshynski over at the Fanhouse has chimed in with some hilarious suggestions, including Lanny McDonald's mustache and Don Cherry's closet...





Some items for consideration (some of them obvious, some of them my personal additions):

  1. The Hockey Hall of Fame: duh.

  2. The Stanley Cup Finals: double-duh.

  3. The World Ice Hockey Championships: Held in Europe each spring, they're largely ignored by North American fans focusing on the NHL playoffs.

  4. Madison Square Garden: The "World's Most Famous Arena" has been the stage for some fierce battles over the years, some of which have even taken place on the ice.

  5. Joe Louis Arena: It's not quite 30 years old, but it feels like it belongs to another time in this age of spacious concourses and luxury boxes.

  6. The Minnesota high school hockey tournament: 100,000+ fans each spring can't be wrong.

  7. The Victoria Skating Rink: Sure, it's a parking garage now, but back in 1875 it hosted the first known indoor ice hockey game.

  8. The National Hockey League offices: Because who wouldn't love the opportunity to moon Gary Bettman as he left the building one day?

  9. Yost Ice Arena: Home to the University of Michigan Wolverines (and where I began my adult rec-hockey career almost 20 years ago), it's a cozy little barn that provides by far the most entertaining action on a campus better known for top football programs.


That's enough to get you started, so fire away with your suggestions, from the big-time NHL stadia down to the hallowed rinks of local legend. Besides, it's 92-friggin' degrees down here (that's 33 for you hosers), and I could use something to rekindle memories of ice-cold winters...

Labels:

Permanent LinkMain Page 8 comments links to this post

Friday, July 06, 2007

Three Cheers for Kevin Lowe!

Edmonton Oiler fans haven't had much to celebrate this July, having missed out on the major unrestricted free agents (especially that painful Michael Nylander episode), and it would appear that GM Kevin Lowe's ship is foundering. What's painful for Edmonton might turn into something exciting for fans around the league, however.

The SS Lowe


Perhaps partially in response to his dire situation, Lowe pitched a resounding 7-year, $50 million offer sheet to Buffalo Sabres restricted free agent Tomas Vanek, who was then retained by Buffalo which had the option of matching the contract. While Sabres GM Darcy Regier predictably whined about Lowe's offer, calling it "an exercise in futility," the fact is that it achieved two legitimate goals on Lowe's part.



First, he had the chance to land a promising young winger in case the Sabres were bluffing and not prepared to dole out that $50 million. Secondly, he's forced Buffalo to pay more than they would have otherwise to Vanek, giving them less room under the cap for the next several years. That is sound, competitive management practice in a salary cap era. Game-changing players are a scarce commodity, and now that teams have a limited amount of money to throw around, these RFA offer sheets become much more critical to the long-term formation of a team than they had been previously.

Last year, then-Flyers GM Bobby Clarke was widely criticized for making an over-sized offer to Vancouver RFA Ryan Kesler, but in reality that criticism is just the echo of a bygone era when owners and management colluded to keep players in the dark about their overall situation. In today's world, both supply and demand are constrained, and the economically savvy GM can use that to his advantage. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more offer sheets getting signed in the next few weeks, particularly between divisional rivals. Soaking up a little cap room in Buffalo isn't as nice for Edmonton as if they had forced Calgary or Vancouver to overpay in a similar fashion.

We've come a long ways from 1991, when the Brendan Shanahan signing by St. Louis cost them Scott Stevens in return, which pretty much killed off the restricted free agent offer sheet as a mechanism for player movement from team to team. GM's were terrified of the potential cost, and while draft picks are still used as compensation when one team swipes another's RFA away via an offer sheet, the win-it-now mentality prevalent in so many markets makes that an easier pill to swallow for a GM on the hot seat.

Labels: , , , ,

Permanent LinkMain Page 4 comments links to this post

Thursday, July 05, 2007

Solid defense is no minor issue

When trying to judge the contribution of defensemen towards the success of their team, offensive statistics can be useful for one side of the story, but when it comes to their ability to prevent goals, the primary tool available is the plus/minus stat, which takes a basic stab at measuring the goals for/against ratio when a given player is on the ice in most situations. In particular, if a team is shorthanded and a goal is scored against them, plus/minus isn't affected. Combine that with the fact that plus/minus is largely affected by the other players on the ice, and you have a pretty limited measurement to work with.

One way to shed a little more light on the play of defensemen is to examine how many minor penalties they take relative to their ice time. For example, if two stalwarts play twenty a minutes a game, but one takes twice as many minor penalties (leaving his teammates shorthanded) as the other, surely the player who commits fewer fouls is a greater help to his team, all other factors being equal. Sergei Gonchar, for example, has led the league two years in a row in Hooking calls, but if a goal gets scored while he's sitting in the box, his plus/minus doesn't take a hit.

Today's tables outline those defensemen taking both the fewest and most minor penalties given their ice time (minimum 41 games played). Those minor penalties have then been converted into a "Goal Cost" figure, reflecting a calculation done in a piece by Alan Ryder that provides a guideline, stating that the average shorthanded situation costs its team 0.153 goals, and that 12% of minor penalties are offsetting, meaning that 4-on-4 or something similar results. Therefore if a given player takes 40 penalties, we take 40 times 0.153 times 0.88 to yield a Goal Cost of 5.39, which is worth right about two points in the overall league standings. That may not sound like much, but for teams such as the Lightning, Islanders, Maple Leafs, Canadiens, Flames and Avalanche, it meant the difference between making the playoffs or not. Bringing this aspect of a defenseman's play into focus can help round out the view of their total impact on a team.

To start with, here are our elite defensive performers...

Fewest Minor Penalties based on Total Ice Time, 2006-7 Defensemen
Player Team GP TOI/G Minors GoalCost Min/Penalty
PAUL MARTIN NJD 82 25:13 9 1.21 229:45
MARC-EDOUARD VLASIC SJS 81 22:11 9 1.21 199:39
TOMAS KABERLE TOR 74 25:52 10 1.35 191:24
ALEXANDRE PICARD PHI 62 18:28 6 0.81 190:49
SERGEI ZUBOV DAL 78 25:56 13 1.75 155:36
MARK STREIT MTL 76 14:00 7 0.94 152:00
TOM PREISSING OTT 80 15:15 9 1.21 135:33
LUBOMIR VISNOVSKY LAK 69 24:27 13 1.75 129:46
SCOTT HANNAN SJS 79 22:49 14 1.88 128:45
BRIAN RAFALSKI NJD 82 25:29 17 2.29 122:55
BRIAN CAMPBELL BUF 82 21:52 15 2.02 119:32
ZBYNEK MICHALEK PHX 82 23:39 17 2.29 114:04
KEVIN DALLMAN LAK 53 12:48 6 0.81 113:04
SAMI SALO VAN 67 21:27 13 1.75 110:33
BRENT SOPEL VAN 64 20:15 12 1.62 108:00
JOHN-MICHAEL LILES COL 71 17:45 12 1.62 105:01
ROBERT SCUDERI PIT 78 18:48 14 1.88 104:44
TEPPO NUMMINEN BUF 79 20:47 16 2.15 102:37
SHEA WEBER NSH 79 19:23 15 2.02 102:05
KARLIS SKRASTINS COL 68 21:13 15 2.02 96:10
NICKLAS LIDSTROM DET 80 27:29 23 3.10 95:35
PETTERI NUMMELIN MIN 51 20:17 11 1.48 94:02
BRENT BURNS MIN 77 15:47 13 1.75 93:29
DENNIS SEIDENBERG CAR 52 16:10 9 1.21 93:24
MATTHEW CARLE SJS 77 18:08 15 2.02 93:05


It's interesting to see the number of young players near the top of this list, as you typically think of more experienced blueliners not allowing themselves to get caught out of position and taking penalties as a result. And now, those defenders spending way too much time in the sin bin...

Most Minor Penalties based on Total Ice Time, 2006-7 Defensemen
PlayerTeamGPTOI/GameMinorsGoal CostMin/Penalty
WADE BELAKTOR655:01202.6916:18
NICK BOYNTONPHX5916:47395.2525:23
OLE-KRISTIAN TOLLEFSCBJ7014:13395.2525:31
BRANISLAV MEZEIFLA4515:57253.3728:42
JASSEN CULLIMORECHI6516:16324.3133:02
BRENDAN WITTNYI8121:38537.1433:03
SEAN HILLNYI8122:32557.4133:11
ANDREW HUTCHINSONCAR4112:13152.0233:23
JANNE NIINIMAAMTL4114:50182.4233:47
RHETT WARRENERCGY6217:07314.1734:14
ROSTISLAV KLESLACBJ7522:54506.7334:21
STEVE MONTADORFLA7213:08273.6435:01
RORY FITZPATRICKVAN5814:05233.1035:30
ANDREW ALBERTSBOS7619:40425.6535:35
STEPHANE ROBIDASDAL7518:04385.1235:39
DENIS GAUTHIERPHI4316:39202.6935:47
MARK GIORDANOCGY4813:26182.4235:49
HAL GILLTOR8218:53435.7936:00
SHANE O'BRIENTBL8014:58334.4436:16
MICHAEL KOMISAREKMTL8219:15435.7936:42
MIKE COMMODORECAR8219:53445.9237:03
RUSLAN SALEIFLA8223:19516.8737:29
GLEN WESLEYCAR6815:34283.7737:48
MAREK MALIKNYR6919:16354.7137:58
SHAONE MORRISONNWSH7820:57435.7938:00


You have to feel for poor Wade Belak - perhaps one reason he only snagged 5:01 per game of ice time is that his coach couldn't trust him to stay out of the box. 5:01 per game? Yeesh, that's hardly worth the effort of lacing up your skates. And look at the dynamic duo of Brendan Witt and Sean Hill for the New York Islanders - cutting down a few trips to the box between those two could easily have bumped them up a seed or two in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

So keep this in mind during the long months of the upcoming regular season, as you see the same defenders going to the box time and time again - over the long haul they truly hurt their team. By comparison, those blueliners who take fewer penalties are often underappreciated, and even labelled "soft" for having disappointingly low PIM totals.

Labels: ,

Permanent LinkMain Page 11 comments links to this post

Monday, July 02, 2007

Where, oh where will Nylander land?

Quite the flip-flop today over at TSN, where the morning headline indicated that Michael Nylander was signed by the Edmonton Oilers, but just minutes ago, the latest version now indicates that he's signed with the Washington Capitals instead. A couple screen caps for you:


He's an Oiler!

This morning's story...

Nope! He's a Cap!

This afternoon's update!

I guess the guys at TSN should do more than just listen to Edmonton sports radio before posting headlines to their site.

All in all, that's quite a nice pickup by the Caps (if this is indeed the final word), as Nylander is coming off two huge seasons in New York and should, I expect, provide for a dynamic pairing with Alex Ovechkin. Along with the Tom Podi and Viktor Kozlov signings, that moves Washington well into the class of serious playoff contenders this offseason.

Labels: ,

Permanent LinkMain Page 2 comments links to this post