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On the Forecheck: June 2008 - NHL Stats, Analysis, and Opinion

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Dumb De Dumb Dumb

Thanks to Red & Black Hockey and Puck Daddy over at Yahoo, we have word that the American Hockey League, at the behest of the NHL, is going to experiment with cutting minor penalties in half during regular season overtime sessions. Earlier this year Brian Burke floated the idea in the press, and now it appears that will actually see the light of day. Clearly, the free agency market is so unappealing this summer that GM's have too much time on their hands, and are dreaming up unnecessary rules changes to keep themselves occupied.

Quoth the The Star:
"This season, 39 per cent of the penalties in OT that have resulted in a 4-on-3 power play have produced the winning goal in NHL games. It stands to reason, [Colin] Campbell said, that one-minute penalties will produce fewer goals, and therefore more games will go to shootouts."

Frankly, I'm dumbfounded here. What exactly is the problem that the league is trying to solve? The whole point of going to 4-on-4 during the overtime was to encourage goal scoring. Are too many games getting decided in overtime play rather than going to the shootout? In 2007-8, 272 games went to overtime, and of those, 156 went to the shootout. 57% seems fine by me, I certainly have yet to hear anyone complain from an overall standpoint that too many games are decided during sudden death.

No, what this smacks of is whining by teams that take penalties and lose in OT as a result. Gee, I wonder where Brian Burke's team ranks in terms of how often they are shorthanded? 1st in the league, you say, by a long way? Well, color me shocked.

For those teams, I have a bold, innovative solution to finding yourself in a 4-on-3 with a game on the line. Don't take the penalty in the first place. No, that's alright, you don't have to thank me; just keep me on your Christmas card list, OK?

The shootout is already having a large enough effect on the standings; the only reason Edmonton was within sniffing distance of the Western Conference playoffs was their freakish 15-4 record during "circus time". There's no need to further sully the significance of NHL regular season standings, which, thanks to the single point awarded for an OT/SO Loss, already compensate losers more than enough.

And why, if you're going to venture down this awful road, is the penalty cut in half? Regular season overtime is 5 minutes long, so if you're comparing it to regular action (with periods of 20 minutes), wouldn't 30 seconds be more appropriate? Or if you compare it to the entire 60 minutes of regulation play, then OT penalties should only last 10 seconds. There, that makes much more sense, doesn't it?

The bottom line here is that the league is actually entertaining the notion of making it a better play for someone to haul down an opponent who is a threat to score a winning goal. That is simply mind-boggling to me.

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Thursday, June 26, 2008

Predators Prospects On The Ice

I took the chance to head down to Centennial Sportsplex and catch Day One of the on-ice portion of the Nashville Predators Prospects Camp, and while you can't glean much from one hour of a moderately paced practice, it was fun to take two of my kids along and let them see the young guns who hope one day to achieve NHL stardom.

What follows are a few snapshots I took during the session. Keep in mind that I'm officially a middle-aged father of 3, the kind of guy who one day you'll catch wearing black socks with sandals, so please forgive the quality...

Nashville Predators Prospects Colin Wilson and Chet Pickard2008 1st-round pick Colin Wilson (#50) tucks a rebound past fellow 2008 1st-round pick Chet Pickard in goal.

Nashville Predators Prospect Colin Wilson, the #7 selection in the 2008 NHL DraftA closer look at Colin Wilson, the #7 overall pick in the 2008 NHL Draft.

Nashville Predators Prospects Cody Franson, Jeffrey Foss, and Roman JosiSome of the defensemen got special attention at our end of the ice. Here, Nashville's 2008 2nd-round pick, Roman Josi (#59) and 6th-round pick Jeff Foss are towered over by the 6'5" Cody Franson.

There were many others of note that I didn't get good pictures of: Triston Grant, the newly acquired tough guy from Philadelphia, and Blake Geoffrion, who just wrapped up his sophomore season at the University of Wisconsin. I didn't notice last year's 1st-round selection, Jonathan Blum on the ice, nor were young wingers Antii Pihlstrom or Jonas Hornqvist, who are often mentioned as possibilities to make the big squad this fall.

I hope to catch tomorrow's session as well, and if I catch anything blogworthy (admittedly that's a pretty low threshold), I'll plop it up here.

BONUS: To keep you busy until the July 1 free agency period kicks off, head over to Paul Nicholson's Geek Thoughts for an interesting meditation on nationalism in hockey. I was fortunate enough to catch up with Paul at the Prospects skate today after interacting online with him for over a year now...

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Tuesday, June 24, 2008

A GM's work is never done

Nashville Predators GM David Poile has gotten right back to work after the NHL Draft last weekend, as attention turns toward the raft of younger players working their way up through the system:

First, qualifying offers were made to Ville Koistinen and Kevin Klein, the 7th and 8th defensemen on the roster last season. Those two will not be subject to RFA offer sheets, and, if the situation remains as it appears right now, would return all eight defensemen from last season to Nashville this fall. UPDATE: Sorry for the brain cramp there; the fact that qualifying offers were made means that Nashville has the right to match offer sheets from other teams. If no such qualifying offer is made, the player becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Second, qualifying offers were also made to Rich Peverley and Matt Ellison. Ellison didn't play at all with the Predators last year after a stint in the preseason, but Peverley made an impact when he was called up from Milwaukee after David Legwand got hurt; 5 goals and 5 assists in 33 games, and only 8 penalty minutes while averaging 10:20 of ice time per game. I've said before that something's got to be done about Nashville's 3rd line, and perhaps one option would be to give Peverley a shot at center there until 1st-round pick Colin Wilson is ready in a year or so.

Lastly, Poile made a trade with Philadelphia, sending Janne Niskala, a 27 year-old defenseman who wasn't about to leap past K & K into the Top Six, over to the Flyers in exchange for tough-guy Triston Grant and a 7th-round pick in 2009. This represents a minor step in clearing up the blue line situation, and also helps fill the void left when Darcy Hordichuk departed, as one can tell by Grant's profile over at HockeyFights.com. It looks like he's a lefty who can definitely take as much as he dishes out; the few bouts that I saw often saw Grant start slowly, but usually land some solid blows. Whether he can actually play hockey at the NHL level is obviously an open question.

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Monday, June 23, 2008

Weber Signs , Filling Out a Crowded Nashville Blue Line

John Glennon reports today that Shea Weber has signed a 3-year, $13.5 million deal, avoiding the trials and tribulations of restricted free agency. At $4.5 million per year, he leapfrogs Ryan Suter and Marek Zidlicky in terms of yearly salary among Predators defensemen, fairly close to the figures I guessed at a few months ago by comparing him not with Dion Phaneuf, but rather other young NHL defensemen entering their second contracts with similar levels of performance.

Watch those #6 jerseys fly off the shelves now...

By opting for a 3-year deal, Weber leaves plenty of opportunity to earn major dollars relatively soon. If he can maximize the potential that Preds fans and coaches see day in, day out, he'll earn that big-time payday in the summer of 2011.

So now that Nashville's top six defensemen from last year (Weber, Suter, Hamhuis, Zidlicky, de Vries & Zanon) are all under contract, what will become of restricted free agents Kevin Klein and Ville Koistinen, and other young prospects like Alexander Sulzer and Cody Franson? As I mentioned last week, the glut of defensemen in the early stages of their career threatens the development of those left either in the press box in Nashville or down in Milwaukee, when instead they might be better served by seeing at least semi-regular NHL action. There is still plenty of time left this summer (and probably well into the next regular season) before that logjam must be cleared, but if I were to guess, I'd say that Greg de Vries might make the most sense to move. While he's a solid veteran performer, the core of the defensive group has largely worked through their rookie stage, and there are usually several teams on the lookout for a greybeard like de Vries to come in and provide leadership. At this point, even a minor deal for relatively little hockey value might prove a huge benefit to the team, by opening a spot for one of the younger blueliners to prove his worth.

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Uncle Gary Wants You, Preds Fans

For any of you who fret that the NHL has totally forgotten about the interests of the common fan, here's your chance to have your voice heard. For a while now the NHL has had a "Fan Face Off" team, which sends out surveys via email to interested fans. They usually don't take too long and are relative to topics the league is currently dealing with.

Today, I got a message from them stating that they'd like to get a greater representation of Nashville Predators fans within their Fan Panel, so by all means, click on over and sign up. Just as the saying goes regarding the Presidential election, if you don't at least try to make your opinion count, you really can't complain about the results you end up with.

Friday, June 20, 2008

David Poile, Dealmaker Extraordinaire

Nashville Predators GM David Poile must have been inspired by my "Let's Make a Deal" post yesterday, because in just over 24 hours since then he's made some strong moves to help alleviate roster imbalances that threatened to impede the team's progress, and positioned the team to start the 2008-9 NHL season much stronger than the year before.

First, he sent enforcer Darcy Hordichuk to Carolina for a 5th-round pick, opening a forward slot that may be available to one of Nashville's prospects. Next, he signed pending free agent goalie Dan Ellis to a 2-year, $3.5 million contract. As a consequence, Chris Mason was then sent to St. Louis for a 4th-round pick. With those moves, Poile resolved a bottleneck in goaltending, and by presumably starting next fall with Ellis as the #1 and Pekka Rinne as backup, the Predators will only be spending $2.3 million on that position, which allows for some of that money that's been going to core players with new contracts (like Ryan Suter, David Legwand, J.P. Dumont and Martin Erat).
Preds GM David Poile, at least for today...

Now, as the 2008 NHL Draft commences, word comes that Poile has made the boldest move yet; moving up in the first round from 9th to 7th by sending the New York Islanders an additional pick (the 40th) this year*. This allowed them to select Colin Wilson, a big center from Boston University who was rated #8 in TSN's draft rankings. From the TSN profile, it looks like Wilson brings a good combination of size, speed and defensive responsibility, which would appear to make a good fit with Barry Trotz's system.

If Wilson can make the Predators roster this fall, there might be a good opportunity for him as a third-line center; Nashville's top two lines fared well last year, and Scott Nichol anchored a solid checking line, but the Radek Bonk/Jerred Smithson combination that saw most of the third line duty simply got abused (witness Bonk's league-lagging Plus/Minus figure of -31). Granted, with draft picks it's probably unrealistic to expect an immediate impact, so he might need some seasoning in Milwaukee before joining the Predators in Nashville.

Either way, I'm glad to see the Preds make a move to bolster the center position.

Later on, Poile traded down from #15 to #18, in exchange for getting a 3rd-round pick from Ottawa in 2009. That allowed him to draft Chet Pickard, the top goaltender this year, to help stock the cupboard in net for the long term.

*As one of the folks on the Predators message boards pointed out, those two picks are the ones acquired from Florida in last year's Tomas Vokoun trade.

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Dan's The Man

UPDATE BELOW

Word comes this morning that the Nashville Predators have traded goalie Chris Mason to the St. Louis Blues for a 4th-round draft pick. This clears the way for handing the #1 job to Dan Ellis, who in yesterday's Tennessean discussed the three-way situation between himself, Mason and Pekka Rinne as an obstacle to re-signing with Nashville. This morning the Predators have also announced a multi-year deal with the one-time University of Nebraska-Omaha standout.

You've come a long way, baby!

The question of course is how much it will cost the Preds to lock up Ellis (terms weren't disclosed immediately), who came out of nowhere to have a successful, if at times inconsistent, season. Mason is entering the first year of a two-season contract worth $3 million per, which was earned at the time based on 82 games of NHL action, mostly as Tomas Vokoun's backup. In 2006-7, Mason had one of the top performances in the league as he played 40 games due to injury troubles for Vokoun. At this point, Dan Ellis has 45 games under his belt, with similarly solid numbers. How will his new contract compare to what Chris Mason received? My guess is that they'll be in roughly the same ballpark, but I would lobby for something slightly less given the concerns about his ability to maintain playing weight, and unproven ability to handle the starters job for more than a few weeks at a time. UPDATE: John Glennon reports that the new deal is for 2 years, averaging $1.75 million each. A great deal for both sides, as Ellis gets his shot at a #1 job and the Preds go into the season projected to spend a mere $2.3 million on their goaltending.

No matter the case, Predators GM David Poile has appeared to have successfully resolved the logjam in net, and while a 4th-round pick isn't great value in return, the likely alternative would have been for Nashville to let Ellis walk away via free agency, and receive nothing. This way, they did land an extra pick (along with that 5th-rounder for Darcy Hordichuk, will they bundle a few to move up, perhaps?), and set themselves up well for the medium term with Ellis as #1 and Pekka Rinne having the opportunity to back him up while learning the ropes at the NHL level. Rinne's $575K salary also helps offset some of the payroll increases of the last few months, so I'm sure that was part of the consideration. Well done, Mr. Poile...

And, of course, you have to wish the best of luck to Chris Mason in St. Louis; during a trying 2007-8 season he never appeared bitter at seeing Dan Ellis take over in goal, and his team-first attitude was apparent during Preds TV coverage, when he'd provide on-the-bench commentary during the 3rd period. He was on the air when Jason Arnott scored the go-ahead goal against the Red Wings in Game Three of the playoffs, only 9 seconds after the game had been tied, and his excitement and enthusiasm came through loud and clear. He always seemed to be a grounded, regular guy with a great attitude, and the fans in St. Louis will appreciate that.

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Thursday, June 19, 2008

Hordi out the door

Thanks to the heads-up from Kukla's Korner, word comes that the Predators have made their first swap of the off-season, trading enforcer Darcy Hordichuk to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for a 5th-round pick.

This smacks of a classic "something for nothing" deal similar to last summer when David Poile shipped Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell to Philadelphia, since he knew he wouldn't be able to sign them to new contracts anyway. Even when he was in the lineup, Hordi didn't get more than a few minutes of ice time, and it doesn't appear like that would change in 2008-9.

If he sticks with Carolina, Hordichuk will serve as a relatively useful enforcer, in that he's actually pretty disciplined (no minor penalties in 45 games last year), and appears to be a positive, team-first player despite not getting regular ice time. The fans in Carolina will enjoy his personality as well; he hosted a weekly radio show here in Nashville that's made him a fan favorite. He certainly has a pretty good website...

All in all, this is a very minor deal for the Predators, but doing the small things consistently well is the hallmark of a quality organization. Well played, Mr. Poile...

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Let's Make a Deal

John Glennon's piece this morning discussing the Nashville Predators and their willingness to draft defensemen with either (or both!) of their first-round picks tomorrow night surely has some fans scratching their heads. With 8 blueliners on the active roster for most of last year, and a number of prospects either ready or close to being ready for NHL duty, surely GM David Poile is looking for more talent up front or in goal to balance out his resources? Apparently not, as Mr. Poile has other means at his disposal to address the problem:

"All I tell our scouts is to put the list in order and to give me the best player. The best player will be the best asset. If we have an imbalance in our depth chart, that will be my problem or situation to deal with.''

Make no mistake, there most certainly is an imbalance on the Predators depth chart right now, and unless it is addressed soon it could hurt the team in both the short- and long-term. While Ville Koistinen enjoyed semi-regular action in his first NHL regular season, Kevin Klein only appeared in a handful of games, and risks rotting on the vine if he has to sit in the press box for most of 2008-9 as well. Toss in the fact that Cody Franson, Alexander Sulzer, and Janne Niskala will be pressing for jobs in Nashville soon, and it becomes obvious that Nashville's defensive depth could well become an impediment to the development of its blueline prospects. In short, something needs to be done via trade to swap out some of that current value, and provide opportunity for younger (and cheaper) players to crack the lineup. So, for your consideration, Mr. Poile, I offer up the following humble suggestions:

David Poile really needs a fashion consultant...

Door #1 - Olli Jokinen: The Florida Panthers captain has been at the center of trade rumors for eons now, but this time, it looks like he could indeed be sent packing. According to TSN's Darren Dreger, Florida is looking for "two young NHL roster players and a first round draft pick." I'd start by offering up the #15 2008 pick (Nashville's 2nd in the 1st round) along with either Koistinen or Klein, a regular, non-Top Six forward (Tootoo, Fiddler, or Nichol) and Radek Bonk (gotta clear out room at center). This would give Nashville a monstrous advantage at center over almost any team in the league, allowing for a three-line offensive attack built mostly on center/winger pairings (Arnott/Dumont, Legwand/Erat, Jokinen/Radulov) that allow for the other winger to play a support role as in the Left Wing Lock. On the power play, Jokinen could take the center position and allow Jason Arnott to play along the boards and set up for his one-timer. The only problem there is that Jokinen is perhaps even a worse faceoff man than Arnott, something Nashville wouldn't be excited about.

Door #2 - Justin Williams: TSN's Dreger notes also that Carolina GM Jim Rutherford "remains on the hunt for a defenseman," and that "names like Erik Cole, Justin Williams and Tuomo Ruutu are being tossed around as bait." Williams might make a good fit on the left side of one of Nashville's top lines, assuming of course that his knee has recovered from a torn ACL. Bubba over at Canes Country interviewed the Hurricanes on this point, and it looks like things are moving along well. So what might it take to lure Williams away? Again, I'd offer up either Koistinen or Klein, along with either a prospect or a 2nd-round pick.

Door #3 - Jonathan Cheechoo: Sticking to Dreger's column, he floated the San Jose sniper as possible trade bait. As he turns 28 this summer, Cheechoo should have plenty of productive seasons left in him, and I'd wager that his 10.45% shooting percentage of last season will turn out to be an aberration, relative to his typical 14-16% (project that across 220-260 shots, and you're looking at a 30-40 goal scorer). Cheechoo would command more than Williams in trade, so you're likely looking at parting with a 1st-round pick, along with Koistinen-or-Klein and perhaps a prospect.

It would appear that Top Six forwards are indeed out there to be had, and if David Poile takes the initiative, some creative solutions to the current roster imbalance might be found. Besides these specific examples, there may be opportunities to trade up in the draft and go after an elite offensive talent that could help the Predators quickly. For example, while the draft is chock-full of defensemen, a team may be willing to swap picks with Nashville (along with taking a blueline prospect that's closer to the NHL) so the Preds could move up if they need to in order to get a Nikita Filatov or Mikkel Boedker (or, gasp, both!). For an organization that needs to get the maximum performance out of each roster dollar spent, this might be the most affordable way to inject offensive ability into the Predators lineup.

While Poile's patience has been a major asset to Nashville in building up this surfeit of defensive talent, the time has come to reap the benefit and deal from a position of strength. Letting opportunity pass will only turn this organizational depth into a bottleneck, and threaten the development of young prospects going forward. There are certainly worse problems an NHL general manager can have, but that doesn't detract from the urgency of the situation.

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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Back in the saddle again

Yes, I've been away from the keyboard* for quite a while, so there's certainly some catching up to do:
  • The Boots Del Biaggio saga is now entering the Long Slog, a period of time in which both a bankruptcy and a criminal investigation will take place. I suspect it will take months before the whole tangled web gets unwound, but as John Glennon points out in his Tennessean blog today, the signing of Ryan Suter shows that the Predators aren't standing still. It does appear that operationally they should be able to proceed as planned.
  • Speaking of Suter, 4 years at $3.5 million per might seem on the high side, but take a look at this list of NHL defensemen making between $3 million and $4 million next year, courtesy of NHLSCAP.com. While Suter certainly still has rough parts of his game that need to be filled out (as in, quit hanging onto the puck for so long in your own end!), he fits quite comfortably in that group. He's a legit Top-4 NHL defenseman, and contributes on the power play as well.
  • Back to the Del Biaggio story; there are many out there jumping on Gary Bettman and the NHL for failing to perform due diligence and getting caught looking foolish, but if you go back to the initial stories in this drama, you'll see that Del Biaggio's brokerage is being sued right alongside him. While we have to wait for all the facts to come out in court, the appearance is that the lenders were trying to independently verify Del Biaggio's collateral claims, and received documents that, while appearing genuine, where in fact falsified by an employee there. The responsibility lies with the guilty parties here, folks, not the victims.
  • When it comes to re-signing free agents in Nashville, the next one in line would appear to be defenseman Shea Weber. I've said before that 4 years, $15-16 million seems about right for Weber, who had a disappointing 2007-8 campaign. Perhaps that figure will rise a bit given the figures that Ryan Suter earned, but I'd certainly choke on anything above $5 million/year.
  • The last major free agent to be dealt with is goaltender Dan Ellis. His play down the stretch lifted the Predators into the playoffs, and his effort against the Red Wings was among the best goaltending performances in the entire postseason, but whether he can carry that forward as a regular NHL goaltender is an open question. Even without being the main guy throughout the season, Ellis had difficulty maintaining his playing weight, an issue that became an even larger concern during the playoffs. How would Ellis survive the entire 82-game regular season, let alone considering the fact that opponents now have a decent amount of game action available to scout him with? Since Chris Mason is just entering a two-year contract extension at $3 million per year (read: untradeable), and Pekka Rinne would have to clear waivers to head back to Milwaukee this year, it would appear that the only realistic situation keeping Ellis in Nashville is to see Rinne traded and Ellis accept a playing time split with Mason, something relatively close to 50/50. My bet is that he'll wait until July to play the free agent market, and sign as a backup with a contending team for a decent sum ($2-3 million).
  • That said, a depth-for-quality trade might be just the solution for a Predators squad that already has 8 NHL-level defensemen with more rising through the ranks, and a 3-way shuffle in goal. With no indication as of yet that Steve Sullivan will return anytime soon from his back troubles, the obvious need on this team is for an offensive threat up front. Is Patric Hornqvist, or any of the other Predators prospects, ready to step into that role this fall? Probably not quite yet, so a trade would be the logical option.
  • Congrats to Glenn Anderson and Igor Larionov for their selection to the Hockey Hall of Fame.
  • Expect a blogroll cleanup and site redesign over the next couple weeks; I've got quite a bit of pruning to do, and may well remove the blogroll to its own page in order to free up more space for article content.
*We packed up the kids and went on vacation, then dropped them off for family visits and camp, etc. Yes, our heavy-duty driving is the reason why gas has sky-rocketed past $4 a gallon. The one point I'd pass along is that everyone should take the opportunity to visit the Space & Rocket Center in Huntsville, Alabama sometime. It's an inspiring reminder of what our nation can accomplish when our priorities are set on exploration and discovery rather than consumption and speculation.

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