Moved

Saturday, May 31, 2008

Dirty Boots?

Just when Predators fans were settling in for a comfortable summer of franchise building under stable, mostly local ownership, a scandal appears to be unwinding around William "Boots" Del Biaggio, the second-largest member of Predators Holdings LLC, the group that collectively owns the team.

First, word broke that Del Biaggio is being sued for obtaining a $3 million loan using a securities account as collateral that, in fact, wasn't his. The SEC is also apparently investigating. Here's one distressing snippet from that article:

"he failed to make payment at the end of last month, citing significant financial and other problems."

For someone who is such a key portion of the Nashville ownership, not being in position to make payment on a $3 million loan is a matter of gigantic concern.

Then there's also the news that Boots resigned from Sand Hill Capital, the firm he cofounded, for "personal reasons." Hardly a good sign, that.

This evening, a new piece up at the San Jose Mercury News brings a local perspective, which includes word that "within the past several months, friends and associates say, he has separated from his wife and moved out of the [lavish] home on the hill."

The final words of the San Jose article surely sum up the concerns of Predators fans:

"Just how significant are those issues? Del Biaggio and those close to him won't return calls to say. His old office is dark. The gates at his family estate are closed. And many are left wondering what's to become of a man who always seemed to turn up on the town with a ready smile and a soft spot for a good cause."

Now, what might this mean to the Preds ownership group? Imagining a worst-case scenario that sees Del Biaggio financially wiped out, a buyer would have to found for his 32 percent stake in the team, and given the circumstances, that buyer (or buyers) might be able to leverage a discount. It doesn't appear that on an ongoing basis the group would have used Del Biaggio to help chip in to cover for operating losses, as they obtained a $20 million line of credit to cover such losses as part of the financing of the franchise purchase. Now, is it possible that Del Biaggio's mess could result in some sort of default relative to that financing arrangement? Frankly, I have no idea, but hopefully someone like the Nashville City Paper's Richard Lawson (whose reporting during the franchise sale last year left local and national competitors in the dust) can start digging. Much like that story, this Del Biaggio affair is a business & legal story, not a sports one.

While it wouldn't appear right now that this will impact the team's operations this summer, I have a feeling that we are in the very early stages of an unfolding drama. So stay tuned, but don't panic.

Yet.

For further musings on this unfolding drama, see Tom Benjamin.

Labels: nashville predators

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Drop the puck, already!

The opening faceoff of the 2008 Stanley Cup Finals is mere hours away, so it's the right time to take a look at how Detroit and Pittsburgh match up in the faceoff circle, and how that might shape the outcome of the series. In yesterday's Globe and Mail, uber-hockey statistician Alan Ryder made the case that the Red Wings will hold a critical advantage in this area, citing the fact that Detroit was #1 in the NHL with a 53% winning rate during the regular season, compared to Pittsburgh's league-worst 46%. Adjust those figures for how they might do specifically against each other, prorate that across 50-60 faceoffs per game, and that does indeed appear to give the Red Wings an extra minute or two of puck possession per game, which, when you're looking for difference-makers between two top teams, could be a decisive factor.

What I decided to do was to take a peek inside those overall percentages, and focus on how each of the main faceoff men (Crosby, Malkin and Staal for Pittsburgh, Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Draper for Detroit) do when you split the performance by zone (offensive, neutral, defensive) and by the handedness of their opponent. Roughly two-thirds of NHL skaters (and all six players noted above) shoot left-handed, so screening out winning percentages on this basis might paint a more detailed and relevant picture. When considering the zone in which a faceoff occurs, it has been pointed out by Behind the Net that neutral zone draws have a lesser impact on goal-scoring (for or against) than those in either end, so beware the center whose figures are boosted by winning the less-important battles.

Detroit

What we see here is that while the Euro Twins (Datsyuk & Zetterberg) were equally dominant against right- and left-handed opponents, Kris Draper had a pretty significant difference in his performance. Against right-handers he won more than 61%(!) of draws, with a dropoff of 5% or so against left-handers. That trend carried through in the playoffs, particularly in the first round when the right-handed Jason Arnott struggled in the faceoff circle for Nashville. Overall, the outlook from Detroit's perspective is that they should still be quite strong, but perhaps Draper might take a step back.

Pittsburgh

There may be cause for hope, Penguins fans, as you peruse the numbers above. Sidney Crosby, for example, is 5% better against lefties than righties, so his odds against Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Draper look more favorable. Evgeni Malkin, as well, fared better against sinister foes, and if you consider the critical offensive and defensive zone situations, Malkin's numbers look much more respectable than his overall 39.3%. Jordan Staal's prospects don't brighten any when viewed through this lens, but at least for two out of the three main Penguins, things aren't so bad.

Taken in whole, the Red Wings should still hold the advantage in the faceoff circle, but that dominance may not be as severe as top-level analysis would indicate. Crosby and Malkin might well be able to hold their own, while Staal should almost certainly have a tough time. I'm guessing that instead of Ryder's projection for a 57/43 split in favor of Detroit, the Red Wings might end up winning more like 53-54%, reducing the puck-possession gain by nearly half. That said, I am still calling for Detroit to win the series in five games, leaving the Penguins surely frustrated, but having launched a new era of championship contention in Pittsburgh.

Labels: detroit red wings, faceoffs, pittsburgh penguins, statistics

Friday, May 23, 2008

Bravo, NHL

Sure, most folks these days are waxing poetic about the NHL's great fortune in hosting a Detroit vs. Pittsburgh Stanley Cup Final, and yes, I'm looking forward to a dynamic series as much as the next fan. Something over at NHL.com caught my eye today, however, and it makes me want to give the crew over there a standing ovation.

Until now, if you were to comb through their online stats, say be sorting all players in 2007-8 based on goals scored, as you surfed from one page to the next (since each page presents 30 players) the columns would shift around, a deliberate attempt to prevent people from automatically scraping that data off the website. The work could still be done, but it had to be done so by hand (or especially clever scripting), and it was a brutally unnecessary pain in the butt. Going through all the skaters, for example, involved 29 pages that would have to be copied, pasted, and edited in Excel to come up with one coherent list.

Today, while grabbing some info for a look at how faceoffs will play a role in the Stanley Cup Finals (curse you, Alan Ryder, for beating me to the punch!), I needed to gather some information, and noticed some marginal improvements to the NHL stats pages. First off, they've provided easy links at the top of the page to switch between a look at various key stats, like Goals, or Plus/Minus. Previously, you had to navigate back to the main page and try a new query from there. The biggest change, however, is that as you scroll through the listings page by page, the columns no longer shift around! The old "Copy & Paste" is all I needed to seamlessly load up my data cart and happily truck down Analytical Avenue.

Over the last couple months I've had to rebuild a lot of my data after I'd hosed my previous PC, and this subtle change will make that task much easier. Thanks, NHL geeks; it's greatly appreciated.

Labels: statistics

Monday, May 19, 2008

Hockey Blogger Moves Out of Mom's Basement

Sure, the NHL free agency period doesn't start until July 1, but the NHL blogging world saw a momentous move take place as Greg Wyshynski, one of the most widely read (and published) hockey bloggers has been picked up by Yahoo! Sports as "Puck Daddy", a full-time job that involves a steady stream of postings on all matters NHL. James Mirtle has a nice interview with Whyshynski about his new endeavor, and what it means to both mainstream hockey journalism and the blogosphere as well.

Congrats Greg! And while you've moved up to the penthouse, relatively speaking, please be sure to remember those of us remaining here with a backlink now and again.

Labels: hockey blogs

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Wednesday Moanin'

It's been a long time between updates here (quite busy with the job search), so let's get right down to business with some quick observations as to the state of the Nashville Predators and the NHL:

1) The Tennessean's coverage of the Predators took a significant step forward this last season, as John Glennon and Jessica Hopp did a generally fine job, and the editorial staff finally stopped starting every story with phrases like "The Nashville Predators, who have constantly struggled to gain fan acceptance...". On Saturday, however, Glennon committed quite the faux pas in a blog post at the Tennessean's website, complaining that Detroit's Tomas Holmstrom should be more closely scrutinized for having a foot in the crease when he scores. The problem, unfortunately, is that the "foot in the crease" rule was relaxed several years ago, and as long as you're not interfering with the goaltender, having a foot in the blue ice when scoring a goal is completely OK. Of course, this got picked up around the blogosphere and provided amusement for Nashville haters. Hey, all of us have an off day now and again, but when a beat reporter for a major daily newspaper has one, it gets noticed a lot more (thank goodness for him it wasn't a print article).

2) A more serious gaffe popped up yesterday, when the Predators' seven-year contract extension for Martin Erat was rejected by the NHL for violating guidelines set out in the CBA. In a nutshell, the CBA states that in a multi-year deal, there are limitations as to how much the salary can vary from year to year (see page 219 of the CBA for lurid details). The violation here was very minor (his salary was to go from $5.5 million in 2012-13 to $3.5 million in 2013-14, but it can only drop by $1.75 million from one year to the next, that figure being 50% of his 2008-9 salary of $3.5 million), and after a minor readjustment they have already resubmitted the deal to the NHL. Attention GM David Poile! Not only could I join your front office as a Director for Quantitative Analysis, but I'd be glad to lend a hand at "salary capology" as well. Check out my background over at LinkedIn and give me a call...

3) I think San Jose is taking a huge risk in dumping Ron Wilson after getting bounced in the second round by Dallas. Playoff results, in my opinion, are highly overrated in the evaluation of a coaching staff, and there's every possibility that a kinder, gentler head coach won't get nearly as much out of the Sharks in the regular season, leaving them poorly positioned to make significant headway in the playoffs. You can be certain that their Pacific Division rivals are glad to see Wilson out of the way.

4) Has there ever been a lamer playoff slogan than Philadelphia's "Why Not Us?" It sounds like the motto of someone hoping to hit the Lotto than a call to support a hockey team. I had picked the Flyers to win the Eastern Finals (granted, that was before Kimmo Timonen was lost for the series), but that depleted blue line is killing them. Ah well, maybe Braydon Coburn can get a visor sponsorship deal during the offseason.

In the meantime, I'm busy trying to cobble together more data to provide juicy tidbits ahead of the free agency market this summer... so stay tuned for further developments.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Vancouver to leverage statistical analysis?

There's a very interesting article this morning over at the Vancouver Sun, discussing the analytical work of former NHL GM Mike Smith, and how Mike Gillis, who just took over as Canucks GM, might make use of advanced hockey statistics in his new role. Here's a quote from Smith that pretty much says it all:

"Everybody will be doing some version of this in four, five or six years. Most owners are doing business analytics in their own businesses. It's here to stay."

In a salary cap-driven NHL, payroll dollars are a constrained resource, so it only makes sense to apply whatever tools you can to ensure the maximum return on that investment. Particularly for a team like Nashville, which doesn't have the luxury of living at the high end of the salary cap range, this is even more true.

One of the great frustrations I run into doing some of this work is that I have to spend too much time reassembling information into data; extracting play-by-play files, merging that with other tables, etc. If it was only possible to get my hands on the real, raw data that the NHL records, the possibilities could be incredible; envision performance metrics for a given player, with on-the-fly comparisons for how those change depending on linemate or opponent. I've got a lengthy To Do list of topics that could be very useful to a Hockey Operations staff, but building the data with which to start is a huge obstacle.

So here's an open message to David Poile and the Predators Hockey Operations staff; I'm in the middle of a job search right now (but for how long?), and am available if you're interested in a short-term consulting gig to help kick the tires on a few things. I can already suggest a strategy to improve your odds in the shootout (which might have helped this year), but there are many, many areas that are ripe for harvesting. It's only a matter of time before this becomes common NHL practice; the only question is, who's going to get there first?

Labels: statistics

Thursday, May 01, 2008

The Suggestion Box is Open, and Wired

I thought I'd give a test run to an interesting new widget called Skribit, which you can find a ways down the left sidebar here. The basic idea is to allow you, the reader, to suggest topics that should be covered here at On the Forecheck.

You want a breakdown of individual Predators players?
How about a deeper dive into the statistical area of your choice?

Whatever you want, make a suggestion, and let's see how this thing works...