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On the Forecheck: November 2007 - NHL Stats, Analysis, and Opinion

Friday, November 30, 2007

Tis the Season to Open Your Wallet

The Encyclopedist of Hockey, Joe Pelletier, has issued a challenge to us hockey bloggers, one that's particularly appropriate during this holiday season.  From Joe's email:
 
"I wrote about eye injuries in hockey, and tied it in with the
degenerative disease glaucoma, which unfortunately I'm becoming an
expert on. I also introduced my readers to my charity of choice: the
Canadian National Institute for the Blind.

I also posted a public challenge to other hockey bloggers to adopt a
charity of their choosing. It can be hockey related, or it can be
something bigger. It can be simply a logo on a side column, or a full
feature piece. Whatever you choose do, or whether you choose to do
anything at all, I hope you fully realize how important your hockey
blog is to many people, and that you can use your platform for even
more important things."
 
Joe's charity of choice is the Canadian National Institute for the Blind, but today I want to introduce you to a charity I added to the left sidebar here a few weeks ago; Kiva.org.  Kiva is a charitable organization that helps facilitate one of the most promising international anti-poverty measures we've ever seen; Microfinance.  The idea here isn't that you don't just give money away to someone in need, but instead provide a loan (as little as $25) to a person in a developing nation that is trying to establish a steady income.  These people tend not to have access to traditional banking services, and as a group, have proven over time to be responsible debtors; microfinance provides them the opportunity to get on their feet.  Instances include a Cambodian fisherman who used his loan to purchase a fishing net and repair his boat, a Peruvian family seeking funds to purchase a clay mixer for the piggybanks they make, or a mother of six in Mozambique who has used previous loans to start a personal sewing business, and now is seeking to expand and open up a shop.  And to think, Mrs. Forechecker won't even darn my socks.

After all, what's the old saying?  "Make a man a fire and you keep him warm for a day; set him on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life."*
 
No, that's not quite it.  But you get the point.  Head on over to Kiva.org, check out some of the stories, and make an investment in the developing world.
 
*stolen from someone's sig on Slashdot, I can't recall whom

Friday Morning Flash

No hockey news for you (at least for the moment); but I did go deer hunting this morning, and bagged my first ever.  My weapon of choice, you ask?
 
 
1999 Subaru Outback
Sorry Bambi, but you should really use the pedestrian crosswalk
 
What a way to start the day.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Two Huge Victories in One Night

It's been a pretty fun evening for Nashville Predators fans; during the 2nd period of tonight's game against the Ottawa Senators, word came that the NHL Board of Governors had given their unanimous approval to the sale of the franchise to the group of investors led by David Freeman.

Then to boot, the Preds held off the slumping-yet-still-terrifyingly-good Senators, who kept coming to tie the game each time Nashville took the lead. The gloomiest moment came in the final minute of regulation, when Daniel Alfredsson walked out of the corner and roofed a shot over Dan Ellis' shoulder, but mere seconds later J.P. Dumont stole the puck in the Ottawa end and fed Martin Erat in the slot for the game winner, with the final 6-5 in favor of Nashville. The offensive charge was led by the top line and the defense, as three Predators blueliners scored and Dumont racked up a goal and three assists.

In terms of the ownership situation, the only step left there is to formally close the transaction, would could come very shortly. The new owners have already laid out their short-term plans in the Tennessean, which consist mostly of setting a budget for GM David Poile to give him parameters within which to make deals, and launching a reinvigorated marketing effort.

For now, I thought I'd pass along the following statement that was released by David Freeman:

NASHVILLE -- “Personally, and on behalf of our ownership group, we thank NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman and the NHL’s Board of Governors for their vote and confidence in us as an ownership group and their ongoing support of Nashville as an NHL market.

This is another big step in the process of completing the purchase of the franchise and solidifying its future in Nashville.

We have several more steps to take related to the purchase and operation of the franchise, including seeking review and approval of the proposed lease changes from the Sports Authority and Metro Council. We look forward to working with both groups and moving forward to make the Predators successful on and off the ice.”

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Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Nashville Predators First Quarter Review

We recently went through a round of parent-teacher conferences for the Little Forecheckers (two in Kindergarten, one in preschool), so it's high time to provide an interim report on these 2007-8 Nashville Predators. Sorry guys, no credit here for tying your own skates or strapping your own gear on...

As a team, the season so far has been a story of streaks; first, there was the six-game losing stretch that left them with a 2-6 record. The final game in that walk of shame was a
nauseating 6-0 defeat in Los Angeles that provided fodder for all the doomsayers who based their preseason predictions on the talent that left Nashville over the summer, not the talent that remained. What followed immediately, however, was an 8-1-2 run that brought the team right back into the thick of the newly-competitive Central Division. At this point, the Predators boast the top inter-divisional winning percentage in the Central at .667 (5-2-2), so appear able to compete for those coveted playoff spots this spring.

The Centers

Jason Arnott (21 GP, 8 G, 10 A, 22 PIM, +8, 18:44 TOI); As a newly-minted captain, top-line center and key power play weapon, Arnott's production has been steady and reliable. Referencing Behind the Net's 5-on-5 Advanced Statistics, #19 comes out 2nd-best on the team in terms of On/Off Plus-Minus. In other words, he makes the 2nd-greatest improvement in the team's GF/GA performance at even strength when he's on the ice. When he's on the bench, the Predators are at a -0.19 Goals per 60 minutes pace, but when he's playing, that jumps to +1.97 Goals per 60 minutes. One quibble I have with Arnott's play to date has been the number of penalties taken; he's committed a team-worst 7 penalties more than he's drawn from opponents, which not only puts his the team on the penalty kill but sets a bad example for a team that has been bitten by the penalty bug too often in recent playoff disappointments. Also, he shoulders part of the blame for a power play that's been dismal at best. 1st Quarter Grade: B

David Legwand (22 GP, 6 G, 12 A, 16 PIM, +4, 18:22 TOI); Perhaps the hat trick he achieved against Dallas in the second game of the season got some fans hoping for a 30-goal season out of the Predators first-ever draft pick, but Legwand seems to have settled in to a valuable role; second-line center and penalty killer extraordinaire. His contributions aren't merely defensive, however. His speed creates chances for his linemates, as reflected in his 5-on-5 Advanced Statistics. When he's on the ice, the Preds give up 2.32 Goals/60 minutes, and when he's on the bench they give up 2.48. The real difference is on the offensive end, as his On-Ice GF/60 minutes is 4.18, vs. 2.31 when he's catching a break. In short, he's adding to the offensive punch without compromising the back end. 1st Quarter Grade: B

Radek Bonk (22 GP, 9 G, 2 A, 4 PIM, -3, 16:17 TOI); Hockey fans in Music City have been going "Bonkers" over this free agent pickup (oh, stop the groaning already) based on his unexpected goal production, but his line is generally getting outscored at even strength. Granted, that's due in part to the strength of opposition Bonk typically faces; using Behind the Net's Quality of Competition metric, his line comes out as having the toughest job to handle, and considering that his usual linemates at even strength are Smithson and Ortmeyer, it's not like they're going to outscore the Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Holmstrom's of the NHL anyway. The real epiphany with Bonk has been on the power play, where his performance has stood out amidst an otherwise lackluster team effort. 1st Quarter Grade: A-

Scott Nichol (18 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 26 PIM, +4, 10:39 TOI); Nichol's job is to provide some energetic forechecking on the fourth line, and focus on the penalty kill. He's been generally effective in those roles (the Nashville PK has taken a step back this year, however, among the bottom third in the NHL), and remains the team's top faceoff specialist. 1st Quarter Grade: C

The Wingers

J.P. Dumont (22 GP, 6 G, 8 A, 14 PIM, +4, 18:14 TOI); Dumont has struggled with a broken finger during the early going, so hopefully the offensive numbers will start to pick up. It seems like J.P.'s had a number of slam-dunk chances go just wide of the net, so while his head and his heart are in the right place, the hands just haven't been able to bury some of those pucks. That's particularly worrisome on the power play, where Dumont's getting 4+ minutes per game while the unit struggles. 1st Quarter Grade: C-

Martin Erat (22 GP, 7 G, 14 A, 10 PIM, +6, 18:17 TOI); The month of November has been kind to Erat, with 15 points in 11 games, compared to 6 in 11 October contests. Barry Trotz spoke before the season of the need for Erat to step up and be an offensive threat every night, so we'll have to see if Erat can keep rolling like this. One interesting aspect to #10's production is his work on the penalty kill, where he has been the top performing forward; despite averaging 1:20 a game on the PK, he's only been on the ice for one goal against so far. 1st Quarter Grade: B+

Alexander Radulov (22 GP, 5 G, 11 A, 12 PIM, +7, 15:06 TOI); People will look at the five goals and conclude that Radulov has been a disappointment so far considering the Bure/Mogilny-like expectations many have for the Predators' flashiest winger. His vision and passing ability, however, set up chances for teammates that wouldn't otherwise have been there, as defenses converge on him and leave linemates wide open. His even strength presence has provided a lift to the team (3rd best, not far behind Arnott), although he is prone to the occasional heart-stopping defensive zone giveaway, usually the result of a weak clearing effort. 1st Quarter Grade: B

Vern Fiddler (22 GP, 6 G, 6 A, 11 PIM, +3, 12:48 TOI); Fiddler's been the character actor on this team, a guy you can throw into a variety of situations with an expectation of competency, if not dominance. He started the year alongside Arnott and Dumont, has spent time with Legwand and Radulov, and has also seen duty on the fourth line as well. He reminds me somewhat of Doug Brown, who used to play on a line with the Russians in Detroit; both know how to jump into a passing lane and take advantage of the opportunities that more talented players can provide. On the penalty kill, his performance hasn't been as strong. The question here is that once (if?) Steve Sullivan returns, will Fiddler get even-strength playing time with quality teammates like he has so far? As an added bonus, he's tied for 2nd-best on the team with a Penalty Plus/Minus of +4. 1st Quarter Grade: A-

Jordin Tootoo (22 GP, 5 G, 2 A, 32 PIM, -1, 9:04 TOI); Tootoo's five goals have his fans buzzing, and have toned down much of the bluster from critics like Kelly Hrudey who thinks he has no place in the NHL. On the negative side, he's still a poor performer in terms of GF/GA at even strength (as are most fighters as pointed out by Mirtle). On the plus side, he's showing a much higher level of discipline as compared to last year, and has a Penalty Plus/Minus figure of +3. 1st Quarter Grade: C+

Jed Ortmeyer (21 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 15 PIM, -4, 13:28 TOI); Everyone loves the work ethic that Ortmeyer brings to the table, especially considering that his role is a thankless one. His duty is to battle the top opposing offensive players and basically hold down the fort. At times, however, it appears that Jed's too focused on the defensive end, and passes up scoring opportunities. He's also the leading forward in terms of penalty killing ice time, so must share some of the blame for that unit's underwhelming record. 1st Quarter Grade: C-

Martin Gelinas (16 GP, 2 G, 3 A, 8 PIM, +2, 12:52 TOI); Gelinas has taken full advantage of the Predators medical staff this season. First he cut his hand during a teambuilding exercise at nearby Ft. Campbell. Then, he caught a high-stick to the face during a game in Anaheim, then in the next game against L.A. got poked by Martin Erat's stick in the eye while returning to the bench. Over the last few weeks, however, he's provided solid forechecking on a line with Tootoo and Nichol, creating the occasional goal and dishing out some hits until one of the scoring lines is ready to go again. His special teams play has been sub par to date. 1st Quarter Grade: C

Jerred Smithson (22 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 18 PIM, -9, 13:43 TOI); Smithson has spent most of his even-strength time on a line with Bonk and Ortmeyer, which helps explain the lack of offensive production. Even with that consideration, however, his EV performance is the worst among players regularly in the lineup. He carries a heavy load of PK work alongside Ortmeyer which also hasn't gone well, and boasts a rotten 42.5% faceoff percentage. 1st Quarter Grade: D

Darcy Hordichuk (7 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 10 PIM, -4, 5:03 TOI); He's missed a great deal of time with a broken toe, but even considering that he's been a healthy scratch many nights. His even strength performance is the worst on the team by a country mile, which must explain why Smithson is still making the lineup every night. 1st Quarter Grade: Incomplete

The Defense

Shea Weber (5 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 4 PIM, 0, 15:07 TOI); A dislocated kneecap kept him on the shelf until only recently, but it is hoped is return will provide the dangerous point presence that's been so sorely lacking. 1st Quarter Grade: Incomplete

Ryan Suter (22 GP, 2 G, 7 A, 22 PIM, -5, 21:42 TOI); Suter's had a rough go of things, generally getting outscored by a 0.73 goals/60 minutes rate at even strength while the team runs at a +0.95 goals/60 minutes clip when he's on the bench (all this while facing basically average opposition, so it's not like he's facing only the best of the best). On special teams, however, he's fared better. He's been one of the more productive blueliners on the PK, and has been the team's best player on the power play so far, as measured by On/Off Ice +/- on the PP, surpassing even Radek Bonk. As Weber works his way back into game shape perhaps Suter's EV time can be scaled back a bit, allowing him to focus on his special team strengths. 1st Quarter Grade: B-

Dan Hamhuis (22 GP, 1 G, 7 A, 8 PIM, +2, 23:58 TOI); Hamhuis has led all Nashville defensemen in minutes played, and in an opposite case from Suter, has performed generally well at even strength while lagging both on the power play and penalty kill. One especially positive aspect of his play is that he boasts a Penalty Plus/Minus of +4, tied for the best among all NHL defensemen. 1st Quarter Grade: B-

Marek Zidlicky (20 GP, 1 G, 9 A, 21 PIM, -3, 21:19 TOI); Zidlicky was supposed to carry the offensive load in light of Kimmo Timonen's departure, but the results have been underwhelming so far. He's taking too many penalties (Penalty Plus/Minus of -6) and his even strength performance has been substandard. He's been one of the few positive factors on the power play, but the Predators should be getting more out of him in 5-on-5 action. 1st Quarter Grade: D+

Greg Zanon (22 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 4 PIM, +5, 19:55 TOI); Zanon is the team's defensive-zone battler, a dedicated shot blocker and steady physical presence. He's been remarkably disciplined, taking only two minor penalties despite heavy action, and during his time at even strength and the penalty kill he's been a positive influence on GF/GA. He doesn't garner significant PP time, but that's not his role. 1st Quarter Grade: B+

Greg de Vries (22 GP, 0 G, 6 A, 16 PIM, +8, 18:54 TOI); Many fans would be surprised to find de Vries atop the team's Plus/Minus rating, as he's been conspicuously hung in the middle of a number of 2-on-1's that have resulted in goals against. Perhaps it's an endorsement of his play that at least he was the guy back, however. At even strength, he's been one of Nashville's better performers, basically adding a goal per 60 minutes to the Predators attack while keeping the goals-against constant. He's also been their top defenseman on the penalty kill. In short, the bottom line has been much better than some of the highlights (or lowlights, depending on your point of view) would indicate. 1st Quarter Grade: B+

Ville Koistinen (14 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 10 PIM, +6, 16:04 TOI); It's still the early stage for Koistinen, who got the opportunity to log significant ice time once Shea Weber went down to injury. While his work on the power play hasn't been extraordinary, his even-strength numbers are dynamite; tops on the team in terms of impact on GF/GA. With Weber's return the blue line is getting crowded, so it remains to be seen whether room can be found to determine whether this young Finn can continue this performance over the long haul. 1st Quarter Grade: B+

Kevin Klein (5 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 4 PIM, -1, 13:10 TOI); Despite a highlight-reel end-to-end rush in the game against Atlanta, Klein has played himself out of the Predators lineup, and during his conditioning stint in Milwaukee Trotz has not sounded like a man impressed with Klein's ability and desire to prove he belongs back up in the NHL. 1st Quarter Grade: F

The Goaltenders

Chris Mason (7-9-2, 3.07, .897 Save %); The knock on Mason according to TSN's Scouting Report starts with "Lacks consistency". After earning player of the week honors for victories in the first two games of the season, Mason then failed to finish a number of games shortly thereafter as the team spiraled. His performance has been steadier of late, but when the inevitable bad game does come along, it needs to be put in the rear view mirror and left behind. As stated before, the biggest variable in the success of this team will be Mason's ability to shoulder a 60-70 game workload while maintaining the kind of performance he's logged before as a backup. 1st Quarter Grade: C+

Dan Ellis (4-0-0, 1.35, .952 Save %); Just like a backup quarterback, the backup goalie is the most beloved of hockey players. Ellis gamely stepped into the breach when Mason struggled early, and had some (admittedly delusional) commentators wondering if he might steal the #1 job from Mason. Trotz has indicated that Ellis will get another start soon, so it will be interesting to see if he can match his performances of a few weeks ago. One thing that is fun to watch with Ellis is his ability (and desire) to play the puck, a holdover from his time in Dallas. 1st Quarter Grade: A

The Coaches
Often in pro sports we hear of teams that tune out a given head coach after a few years, and regardless of whatever success had been achieved, the organization decides to move on. It's amazing to see how Trotz, the only head coach Nashville has known, still has the ear of this team. When the record stood at 2-6 after that shutout in Los Angeles, I said at the time that the team faced a true test of leadership. Apparently Trotz has passed that test, as the team has rallied convincingly since then, including some strong comeback (like the two-goal, third-period effort in Detroit).

On the downside, much was made during training camp about Brent Peterson (edit: spelling correction) taking over the power play, and how there was going to be a "shoot first" methodology put in place. Now granted, the #1 point man, Shea Weber, has missed most of the early action while on IR, but the power play has looked inconsistent at best, and disorganized at worst. The penalty kill, as well, has sunk to below-average NHL performance, whereas it had typically been a team strength in the past.

Line juggling over the first 10 games has given way to a fairly consistent lineup of late, which has roughly correlated with the team's recent success. The main challenges for this group over the months ahead are how to fix the special teams, and how best to manage the glut of defenders available now that Weber is back in the lineup. 1st Quarter Grade: B-

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Monday, November 26, 2007

A Hart-Breaking Issue

It's been a couple weeks, so the Penalty Plus/Minus numbers have been refreshed to capture the NHL games up through Sunday night, November 25. Alexander Ovechkin has taken the lead over Sidney Crosby, with a +18 to Sid's +15. We still see this list overwhelmingly dominated by big-name talent, as opposed to energetic grinders.



Perhaps one way to use this new metric is to provide another factor for the Hart Trophy debate; after all, if you're focusing on the top players in the league in order to figure out who should be the MVP, you might start with the current scoring leaders:

NHL Scoring leaders as of Nov. 26, 200
POSPlayerTMGPGAPTS+/-
CVincent LecavalierTAM2316223810
CSidney CrosbyPIT231221333
LWIlya KovalchukATL231914334
LWHenrik ZetterbergDET2316163210


Convincing arguments could go in any number of directions from here. Lecavalier is our leading scorer, but Sid's close behind and the reigning MVP. Kovalchuk is leading a resurgent post-Hartley Thrashers team, and Zetterberg is a dynamic two-way star on the best team in the Western Conference. But let's bring Penalty Plus/Minus into the mix...

Penalty Plus-Minus for NHL Scoring Leaders
POSPlayerTMCommittedDrawnPenalty +/-
CVincent LecavalierTAM

11

10

+1

CSidney CrosbyPIT

24

9

+15

LWIlya KovalchukATL

8

4

+4

LWHenrik ZetterbergDET

17

5

+12



Now we start to see some separation; Crosby and Zetterberg aren't just lighting the lamp themselves, but they're also putting their respective teams in better position to succeed by drawing penalties and generating power plays. Lecavalier and Kovalchuk aren't doing so to anywhere near the same degree. While some may scoff and say that creating 15 extra power plays may only result in 3 or 4 extra goals for a given team, one has to remember the defensive component as well; not only does the team on the PP stand a decent chance at scoring a goal, but they also enjoy the benefit of their opponent striving merely to clear the zone and rag time off the clock.

Vincent Lecavalier in Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue 2003

Penalty to Vincent Lecavalier, 2 Minutes for Holding...



As we head into the later stages of the season, it will be interesting to see how this leaderboard changes over time. Since this is a new metric, there's nothing to say that current trends will hold true throughout the rest of the year. Opposing defenses could start hauling down Lecavalier to prevent his scoring chances, or Crosby could get frustrated with Pittsburgh's on-ice disappointments and take more penalties himself.

And for the curious, Sean Avery currently stands at 11 penalties drawn against 8 committed, for a +3 figure. As the poster child for the question of whether agitators commit or draw more penalties, his numbers will be followed closely.

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Saturday, November 24, 2007

Is the thrill gone, Earl?

So I checked the Fantasy Hockey standings in Mirtle's Blogger Invitational this morning, and it appears the romance is over...

Recent Transactions




Player Type From

To By


Samuel Pahlsson (Anh - C)
Drop Earl Strikes Back

Waivers
Earl Sleek

That's all I've got for today. I'm up in Indiana for the weekend, and it sounds like I'll miss a doozy tonight in Nashville. The Wild are coming to town, and they've picked up another goon off the waiver wire to cruise alongside Derek Boogaard. Will Barry Trotz counter by dressing Darcy Hordichuk? Personally, I'd rather see them not, and focus on winning the game, but you certainly don't want to see someone come in and rough up your talent.

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Thursday, November 22, 2007

Thanksgiving Thoughts

Nashville Predators fans have much to be thankful for this Thanksgiving Day;

  • A team on the ice that has rebounded convincingly from early season woes to go 8-2-2 over their last 12 games;
  • A group of local investors who worked out a deal with city government and stand ready to take over the franchise in just a few weeks;
  • An outgoing owner in Craig Leipold who patiently waited for the locals to get their deal, rather than taking the quick money that would have sent this team packing;
  • A coach in Barry Trotz who, even after all these years, has this team playing hard every night;
  • A GM who, despite having to slash payroll, made sure that the players brought in were able to fill specific roles;
  • Players like Radek Bonk, David Legwand, and Alexander Radulov, who, among others, are providing offense through a genuine team effort. This team doesn't rely on a single star;
  • A defense corps that has buckled down in the face of injury;
  • A fan base that is rallying behind their team and their city;

All this, of course, and much, much more. Happy Thanksgiving, folks.

NOTES
Unfortunately I'll miss tonight's Predators/Red Wings tilt. The Wings toyed with the St. Louis Blues last night, so it will be interesting to see how Nashville handles them.

Too bad for Glen Hanlon, who just got the boot in Washington, where the Caps are struggling. Some coaches are particularly suited to certain teams and certain times, and while "Hacksaw" did a solid job the last couple years, the expectations have been upgraded along with the roster in D.C. and Hanlon just hasn't gotten things to click so far.

Happiness is flipping by a Canucks/Oilers game and seeing two of my fantasy hockey wingers, Marcus Naslund and Dustin Penner, trade power play goals within a matter of minutes. Mirtle's Merry Men, you're going down!!!

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Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Win Tickets to Preds vs. Red Wings Dec. 10

The good folks over at Save The Predators are running a promotion that could net you a four-pack of tickets to see Nashville host the Detroit Red Wings on December 10. Interested? I thought so...


Save the Predators
For those unaware, Save The Predators has been raising funds which are used to purchase tickets to Nashville Predators games, then those tickets are donated to local charities, such as Big Brothers/Big Sisters. They sell t-shirts and other gear at their eBay storefront, and the contest is pretty straightforward:

"Whichever single buyer buys the most total dollar value in Save The Predators merchandise between now and midnight on December 8 will win ALL FOUR tickets to see The Predators play The Red Wings at Sommet Center on December 10. Game time is 7:00 PM. These tickets have a face value of $55.00 Each and are in Section 308, Row M, Seats 1 thru 4!"

All the details can be found in this post over at the Predators message boards. So head over to their eBay store, pick up some STP gear (perfect for holiday gift-giving) and take your shot at winning those tickets. Heck, get three of your friends and shop together under one eBay account if that's what it takes!

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Monday, November 19, 2007

The NHL Quarter Pole, PythagenPuck Style

It's time once again to take a look at how teams are performing around the NHL relative to what one would expect based on Goals For/Against ratios, and it's PythagenPuck to the rescue.

For newbies, the basic idea here is that at this point in the season, perhaps a better description of team performance is to be found in their Goals For/Against ratios than in their Win/Loss totals. Last season, a similar analysis I performed at this point sagely predicted that Ottawa was still a beast despite their sub-.500 record, and that the Boston Bruins, who at that time were in line for a playoff berth, were ready for a steep fall into NHL oblivion.

What I do here is look at Goals For and Against during regulation play (i.e. excluding shootouts and overtime), and look at how teams are earning points in the standings, compared to how many points the PythagenPuck formula would predict. For most teams, these numbers are quite close, but for the few outliers on each end of the spectrum, one can make the argument that wins or losses are about to pile up with increasing frequency unless something drastic changes on that particular team.

The table outlining all this has been made available over at Google Spreadsheets, something I'm finding to be a very useful tool for sharing information like this. The first few columns (GF, GA, Pts) come right from the typical NHL standings. Then we have OT/SO Wins, Reg GF (Goals For in regulation time only), Reg GA, Reg Pts (basically points in the standings not earned in OT/SO), Regulation Win %, Expected Win % from the formula, then the Difference between those two. Snarky comments come in last. Teams are sorted in declining order of Diff; in other words, from the most Overperforming team to the most Underperforming team.



So who's ready for a fall, and who's lurking in the weeds? It appears that the New York Islanders are the team playing highest over their heads at this point in time, somehow compiling a 9-6 record in regulation despite being outscored 44-42. Ottawa is also outperforming, but even if they regressed to the Expectation level they'd still win the Presidents Trophy handily, so no worries there. And in Phoenix, continuing down the path they're on could lead to another Western Conference last-place finish, but we'll have to see how the addition of Ilya Bryzgalov affects the team.

On the underachieving side we have primarily the Buffalo Sabres, who apparently do miss those guys Briere and Drury, but at least shouldn't be the worst team in the Eastern Conference as a result. Then we have two teams in the West which could make serious noise this season; the Columbus Blue Jackets are playing like an old Dallas team under Ken Hitchcock, and only a 0-4 OT/SO record is holding them back from garnering greater attention for their rise through the standings. The San Jose Sharks are also playing better than their record indicates so far, and in fact their GF/GA ratio in regulation surpasses Detroit for the best in the West.

What this analysis assumes, of course, is that a given team's performance in terms of GF/GA will remain relatively constant, and that the wins and losses will shake out accordingly. But as we know, dramatic swings can sometimes take place due to injury (as when Anaheim got hit with concurrent injuries to Pronger, Giguerre, and Beauchemin last year) or by a coaching change (St. Louis before and after Andy Murray looked like two different teams, much like Atlanta appears this season). This tool can be a useful signal to action for teams like the Islanders that they shouldn't get too comfortable with their early success, or serve as a reason for calm in places like Columbus where there's every reason to believe that they're on the right track.

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It's All Coming Together in Nashville

So I took my lunch hour today down at the Sommet Center, to witness a press conference/rally to celebrate the new lease agreement struck between the local investors and the mayor of Nashville, Karl Dean.  It was a feel-good, backslapping affair that was, frankly, well deserved.  If you look at how the ownership situation has evolved since that day in May when Craig Leipold had announced his intention to sell the Predators to Jim Balsillie, you'd have to say that it's been a remarkable achievement to have a predominantly local group preparing to take the helm at this time.  Just think of all the things that have come together to make this possible;
 
I love it when a plan comes together!
Col. John "Hannibal" Smith heartily approves
 
1.  A strong effort by Our Team Nashville, a hastily assembled group of volunteers who worked hard to build local support throughout the summer.  During today's proceedings chairman Ron Samuels upped his organization's goal to achieving 15,000 average paid attendance, and noted that they've got a long list of prospects who have been waiting to make sure local ownership took over the team before making a commitment.  But as Samuels noted, that time is now, and "we know where you live and we're coming to get you."  Credit also has to be given to local sports radio host George Plaster, who has been a driving force with Our Team Nashville and has shamelessly used his bully pulpit in the afternoon sports talk venue to push this effort.
 
2.  The new mayor didn't ask for this situation to drop immediately in his lap after taking office in September, but despite the fact that the mayoral campaign was about more typical concerns like schools, crime, and taxes, he and his team worked hard to move this process along as speedily as they could, while trying to establish protections for the taxpayers of Nashville.  Nobody can say that he rolled over at the whim of a sports team, but instead conducted a business-like negotiation, balancing the costs and benefits to both parties in desigining the new agreement.  Tennessee governor Phil Bredesen heaped lavish praise on Dean's efforts over the last few weeks.
 
3.  The investors themselves, a disparate group of individuals that figuratively put their money where there mouths are in terms of keeping NHL hockey in Nashville.  They also jumped on the opportunity to bring in Boots Del Biaggio, an established NHL ownership presence who brings more than just financial assistance to the group.
 
4.  Preds fans should also thank Craig Leipold for showing extreme patience and making an extended effort to complete the sale to local interests.  He could have fought harder to complete a deal with Balsillie in order to take his money and run, but instead chose to take the long slow road to keep the team in town.
 
5.  Speaking of Balsillie, credit also has to be given to whatever prompted him to start that season-ticket drive up in Hamilton.  In one stroke, he put the lie to any talk of his making an honest effort to make things work in Nashville, and if anything, it stoked the flames of local resentment and motivated fan-based groups like Save The Predators and Operation Eagle's Nest, which raises funds to buy tickets for use by military personnel and their families at nearby Ft. Campbell.
 
For me the most amusing part of the rally came when J.D. Elliott of the Metro Sports Authority stepped up to the podium.  To review, there are three steps left in the sales process here; the Sports Authority and the Metro Council need to approve the Sommet Center lease changes, and the NHL Board of Governors needs to approve the sale of the team (note:  according to an article in this morning's Tennessean, the NHL vote could occur first, as early as November 29).  So when Mr. Elliot stepped up to the microphone, he was the only person present who could still sour the party.
 
After mentioning what a great day it was for the city and congratulating all the parties involved, he noted that the Sports Authority would act quickly to go through the contract and ensure that it met the needs to the city.  I'm paraphrasing, but it went "we hope to soon review the details of the agreement and move forward with approval if it turns out to be in the best interest of the city of Nashville - which we all think it is."
 
In other words, the mayoral camp has kept the other parties in the loop on these details as they've developed, and the agreement that's been worked out should pass muster with the rest of city government.
 
The hockey fans of Middle Tennessee appear to have been given something to be thankful for; relief from the propect of having their team swept out of town just when it became competitive.  And speaking of competitive, the team takes a recent 8-1-2 record into tonight's contest in St. Louis, where they hope to avenge the shootout loss to the Blues suffered last Saturday night here in Nashville.  Martin Erat was also today named the NHL's Third Star for last week after racking up 3 goals and 3 assists, including two of each against Columbus on November 12.

Friday, November 16, 2007

Freeman At Last, Freeman At Last

After several weeks of false leads, retractions, revisions and amendments, the local investment group led by David Freeman has finally struck a deal with Mayor Karl Dean on adjustments to the Sommet Center lease, removing a large obstacle in the way of completing the sale of the team and preserving its future in Nashville. Approval by the Metro Sports Authority and Metro Council is expected in the coming weeks, but should be a relative formality at this point.

I think that’s worthy of a repeat visit by the On the Forecheck Dancers…

Rather than pontificate, I’ll simply provide this statement that was released by Joe Hall on behalf of David Freeman this afternoon:

“We are excited to reach an agreement with the Mayor’s Office on lease changes to keep the Predators in Nashville under local ownership. We are very appreciative of Mayor Dean for getting this done amid the many priorities he has as the new mayor of our city. He obviously has a strong desire for this hockey team to remain in Nashville.

We also appreciate the Mayor's staff who worked tirelessly with us to get this done. Most of all, we are excited for the city and the fans who will enjoy many more years of Predators hockey for the long run.

We are looking forward to working with the Sports Authority and Vice Mayor Diane Neighbors and the Metro Council to address questions and finalize this agreement for the city, while also working on the final steps to complete the sale and gain NHL Board of Governors' approval.

Our group wishes to thank the fans for their continued support, patience and enthusiasm for Predators hockey. This club has been playing great hockey this month. The Preds are undefeated in their last seven games and have climbed into fourth place in the Western Conference.

We hope that we can simply play our own small role in the long term of success and prosperity of the Predators hockey club and the City of Nashville. Thank you for allowing us to be a part of this experience."

Saturday night against St. Louis just got a LOT more exciting, that’s for sure…

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Predators Take Blackhawks Down (in OT)

Since tonight's tilt with Chicago wasn't carried on local cable (thank you, DirecTV Center Ice for the Chicago feed), here's the condensed recap:

1st Period:
Once against Barry Trotz sent out the Ortmeyer/Bonk/Smithson line to start a game, and they dominated the first minute of play by keeping the puck in the Blackhawk end, eventually drawing a penalty and giving Nashville and early power play. The Chicago penalty kill has been top-notch on the road, and the Predators barely mounted any threat.

For most of the period, however, Nashville kept the pressure on during 5-on-5 action, and a rather odd setup gave the Predators a 1-0 lead. Marek Zidlicky carried down the right side but fell down under pressure, and from his belly, sent a centering pass that deflected right to Jason Arnott who was coasting into the slot where he time to pick his spot on a nice wrister and beat Blackhawks goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin. Even though the period ended with 8 shots for each team, the Predators got the better chances and seemed to have the advantage over a Chicago team that had been beaten the night before in Columbus.

2nd Period:
So much for that theory! The Blackhawks came out and took charge in the second, potting three goals to seemingly derail the Nashville express; Jonathan Toews broke in off the left boards and lifted a nice wrist shot over Chris Mason, James Wisniewski scored on a point-shot tip-in through a crowd in front, and Patrick Sharp slammed home a centering pass from Duncan Keith (Ryan Suter left Sharp in front to try and block the pass, but nobody got back in time to bail him out).

3rd Period:
For a few minutes, the Blackhawks held as the Predators began carrying the majority of play, but they finally broke through with three straight goals of their own. Alexander Radulov fired home a wrister off a centering pass from Vern Fiddler as he waited in the high slot, Fiddler tipped home a pass by David Legwand off his left skate (it was reviewed, and ruled a valid goal, not a kick), and Radek Bonk completed the comeback by storming the crease and slamming home a nifty feed from Radulov as he came out from behind the net. The score was 4-3 Nashville with just over three minutes left, and the crowd seemed primed to celebrate the Predators' first comeback win of the year.

Justin Williams delayed that party, however, with a power play goal in the final minute, tying things up 4-4 and sending the game to overtime. He one-timed a cross-ice pass and beat Mason cleanly. One thing you can say about these Blackhawks is that they should have a pretty wicked power play to contend with. They move the puck crisply and are ready to shoot first, and ask questions later.

Overtime:
I'll keep it short, since it only lasted 19 seconds. Bonk centered to Erat who was crashing the net, and the puck actually floated into the net off of one of the Chicago defensemen.

A brief review followed, but the Preds skated off with a 5-4 overtime victory, and pushed their recent record to 8-1-1, good enough to take them from the Central Division basement to a three-way tie for second with Chicago and Columbus. The St. Louis Blues lie five points back, but they've played fewer games than the rest of the division, and come to Nashville Saturday night after facing the Blue Jackets Friday night at home.

The three stars were Radulov (1G, 1A), Erat (GW goal, 1A), and Bonk (1G, 1A). Chris Mason looked pretty good in net, stopping 27 of 31 shots.

All in all, Predators fans couldn't be happier with how the tide has turned since late October. The team has weathered the storm of that awful six-game losing streak, and should welcome #1 defenseman Shea Weber back to the lineup this weekend (he finally returned to practice yesterday). To make temporary room, Kevin Klein has been sent down to Milwaukee for a two-week conditioning stint after having been scratched from recent contests.

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Wednesday, November 14, 2007

A Deal is Done in Nashville

EDIT: Apparently the Tennessean (along with other local media outlets) got out ahead of this story. Shame on me for not waiting for word to come from Richard Lawson (previously with the Nashville Post, now with the Nashville City Paper). His article includes an important clarification:

"An announcement of a deal between the local investors group trying to buy the Nashville Predators and Metro is expected at 3 p.m. today at the Sommet Center but only if the “term sheet” is signed by noon or 1 p.m." (emphasis mine)

So no deal today, I'm sorry to say. The local group has agreed to the main elements of the Dean proposal, but is still working through the minor details.

ORIGINAL POST FOLLOWS:
At long last, it appears that the local investment group seeking to buy the Nashville Predators has struck a deal with the mayor of Nashville on amendments to the Sommet Center lease, which will allow the rest of the sale process to complete sometime in the coming weeks. The Tennessean reports that a news conference will be held at 3 P.M. Central time to make the formal announcement.


Sommet Center, Home of the Nashville Predators

The Deal is Done!


The deal still needs to be ratified by the Metro Sports Authority and Metro Council before the sale would go before the NHL Board of Governors, but those steps should be relative formalities as Dean has been in contact with these parties throughout the negotiation.


For all of us here in Nashville it’s been a long wait since Mayor Karl Dean was elected in September to get this negotiation completed. It was portrayed as a necessary condition for the local investment group to complete their purchase, and get on with a fresh start in terms of team management and marketing. There has been word that many corporate groups have been waiting on the sidelines for the sale of the team to complete before committing to increased ticket purchases, so we should see soon whether they’ll put there money where their mouth is.


Either way, it’s good to be able to report some progress on this front. Rumor and speculation has gone in various directions for the last few weeks, and I’d decided to hold off on writing anything about this until something tangible had taken place.

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Monday, November 12, 2007

The Monday Morning Specials

After a wild and wooly NHL weekend, there's much to cover, so I'll provide a number of items for you this morning.

1. I've updated the Penalty information over at the Google Spreadsheet, and in an effort to find the most useful and practical presentation, I've put the following columns out there: Player, Penalties Drawn, Penalties Committed, Penalty +/-, Position, and Team. This allows you to zero in on your favorite team, and also draw comparisons based on player position. My hunch is that defensemen will fare poorly here relative to forwards, due to the nature of their work; they're trying to prevent goals, and have to hook, hold or trip more often than the zoomers up front. For those not able to access the spreadsheet, I've included the best and worst players in this measure at the bottom of this post.

2. I took my oldest son (5) to his first NHL game on Saturday, as we watched the Predators defeat the Blue Jackets in a shootout. Ken Hitchcock went with an odd assortment of shooters, including Adam Foote, in lieu of scorers like Rick Nash and Sergei Fedorov. Apparently Hitch hasn't read that sending three right-handed shooters against a left-handed catcher like Chris Mason is a bad idea. All in all it was a fun evening, and my son had a great time. His twin sister gets to go to her first game this Saturday against St. Louis.

3. Just as I posted my memories of Vladimir Konstantinov last week, there are a number of other bloggers who shared stories about other retired greats as well, leading up to today's Hall of Fame induction ceremony. Head over to Greatest Hockey Legends for all the details.

4. Nashville fans have to be happy with how the Predators have responded since that 6-0 pasting at the hands of the
L.A. Kings on October 23rd. Since that game they are 6-1-1, and have started well in this crucial stretch of games within the Central Division that continues this week and next. In that time, team captain Jason Arnott has 3 goals and 4 assists, has a +4 rating. David Legwand has been even better (3-7-10, +6), and Chris Mason is looking sharp once again. And in the best news of all, stud defenseman Shea Weber is due to return from his knee injury sometime in the next week, perhaps as early as Saturday against the Blues.

5. I got a good portion of Saturday afternoon's Montreal/Ottawa match on Hockey Night in Canada, and it was probably the best game I've seen all season, not just in terms of how the teams were performing on the ice, but also given the energy in the crowd, which came through wonderfully on TV. There were plenty of Habs fans in the house, and each shot, hit, or slick move elicits raucous boos and cheers from the stands. It really feels like hockey season now...


Top Penalty Plus/Minus Players as of November 11, 2007
Player Drawn Committed Pen +/- Pos
PIT #87 CROSBY 20 7 13 C
WSH #8 OVECHKIN 14 3 11 L
NYR #19 GOMEZ 13 2 11 C
L.A #13 CAMMALLERI 11 0 11 L
L.A #11 KOPITAR 13 2 11 C
DET #13 DATSYUK 13 2 11 C
MTL #21 HIGGINS 11 3 8 L
EDM #83 HEMSKY 11 3 8 R
DET #40 ZETTERBERG 12 4 8 L
VAN #17 KESLER 12 5 7 C
S.J #12 MARLEAU 8 1 7 C
PHX #34 WINNIK 8 1 7 C
NYR #25 PRUCHA 9 2 7 R
CBJ #61 NASH 14 7 7 L
CAR #13 WHITNEY 7 0 7 L
BUF #29 POMINVILLE 9 2 7 R
BUF #19 CONNOLLY 9 2 7 C
ATL #13 KOZLOV 8 1 7 L
ANA #32 MOEN 9 2 7 L
STL #22 BOYES 8 2 6 R
S.J #9 MICHALEK 8 2 6 R
PHX #11 HANZAL 8 2 6 C
NSH #22 TOOTOO 8 2 6 R
N.J #16 ZUBRUS 7 1 6 C
MTL #73 RYDER 9 3 6 R
CAR #26 COLE 10 4 6 L
CAR #12 STAAL 10 4 6 C



Worst Penalty Plus/Minus Players as of November 11, 2007
Player Drawn Committed Pen +/- Pos
TOR #56 WOZNIEWSKI 0 11 -11 D
DAL #43 BOUCHER 0 10 -10 D
TOR #31 KUBINA 2 11 -9 D
PIT #55 GONCHAR 3 12 -9 D
PHI #22 KNUBLE 1 10 -9 R
OTT #25 NEIL 3 12 -9 R
NYR #51 TYUTIN 0 8 -8 D
EDM #24 STAIOS 0 8 -8 D
DET #3 LILJA 3 11 -8 D
CHI #7 SEABROOK 0 8 -8 D
CAR #6 HEDICAN 1 9 -8 D
S.J #10 EHRHOFF 1 8 -7 D
PHX #13 CARCILLO 3 10 -7 L
L.A #3 JOHNSON 1 8 -7 D
FLA #24 SALEI 2 9 -7 D
BOS #91 SAVARD 1 8 -7 C
ATL #28 HAVELID 0 7 -7 D
WSH #87 BRASHEAR 0 6 -6 L
WSH #4 ERSKINE 2 8 -6 D
WSH #2 POTHIER 2 8 -6 D
VAN #24 COOKE 0 6 -6 L
VAN #2 OHLUND 5 11 -6 D
NYR #27 MARA 1 7 -6 D
NSH #7 DE VRIES 2 8 -6 D
MIN #8 BURNS 3 9 -6 D
EDM #23 TARNSTROM 2 8 -6 D
DET #55 KRONVALL 1 7 -6 D
DET #33 DRAPER 5 11 -6 C
CGY #6 SARICH 1 7 -6 D
CGY #40 TANGUAY 2 8 -6 L
CGY #17 GODARD 0 6 -6 R
CBJ #25 CHIMERA 2 8 -6 L
ANA #25 PRONGER 4 10 -6 D

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Thursday, November 08, 2007

The Ups and Downs of NHL Penalties

Welcome to all the visitors stopping by today via the Hockey News, and thanks to Rand Simon for his kind words. His note that some of the stuff I'm doing this season related to his arbitration work for Sean Avery over the summer is just the sort of thing I was hoping would be picked up on, the fact that statistical analysis can help answer some interesting questions related to team and individual performance in the NHL. From Simon's blog at the Hockey News today:

Through analyzing shift charts and box scores we were able to determine that Avery was a "plus" in the penalty department last season as he drew more power plays than his penalties caused shorthanded situations.

The statistic helped counteract the Rangers' argument that Avery was an undisciplined player who was hurting his team by taking too many penalties.


I've been tracking Penalties Drawn so far this year, and while Sean Avery has missed most of the early action he's a player that I plan on following through the course of the season, to answer just that question. Which agitators succeed in goading their opponents into taking penalties more often than they themselves leave their team shorthanded?

As a further wrinkle to the Penalties Drawn numbers I've been working on so far, I thought I'd bring Penalties Committed into the mix to come up with a Penalty Plus/Minus figure. In doing so, I exclude coincidental penalties, so if you see a discrepancy in Drawn or Committed, check that out first. Here's a quick snapshot of what I've got so far in that realm, with the leaders and laggards in this category (data through the games of Sunday, November 4). See, Rangers fans, Scott Gomez is at least leading the NHL in something for all that dough!


PlayerDrawnCommittedPen +/-
NYR #19 GOMEZ12111
L.A #13 CAMMALLERI11011
L.A #11 KOPITAR12210
WSH #8 OVECHKIN1129
DET #13 DATSYUK1028
PIT #87 CROSBY1477
EDM #83 HEMSKY927
CAR #13 WHITNEY707
CBJ #61 NASH1046
CAR #17 BRIND'AMOUR1046
MTL #21 HIGGINS936
DET #40 ZETTERBERG936
STL #22 BOYES826
PHX #11 HANZAL826
MTL #73 RYDER826
BUF #19 CONNOLLY826
PHX #34 WINNIK716
NYR #25 PRUCHA716
N.J #16 ZUBRUS716
VAN #17 KESLER1055
BUF #61 AFINOGENOV945
FLA #12 JOKINEN835
DAL #15 HAGMAN835
CAR #12 STAAL835
VAN #15 RITCHIE725
ANA #32 MOEN725
T.B #26 ST. LOUIS615
ATL #13 KOZLOV615
OTT #44 EAVES615
BUF #29 POMINVILLE505
FLA #10 BOOTH505

And at the bottom end of the list...
(EDIT: Initial post missed those who had drawn 0 penalties, I've corrected that)

PlayerDrawnCommittedPen +/-
TOR #56 WOZNIEWSKI011-11
CAR #11 WILLIAMS19-8
DET #3 LILJA210-8
NYR #51 TYUTIN08-8
PHX #13 CARCILLO08-8
PIT #55 GONCHAR19-8
TOR #31 KUBINA19-8
ATL #28 HAVELID07-7
CAR #6 HEDICAN18-7
L.A #3 JOHNSON18-7
MIN #8 BURNS29-7
PHI #22 KNUBLE18-7
S.J #10 EHRHOFF18-7
ATL #16 HOLIK17-6
BOS #91 SAVARD17-6
CBJ #97 KLESLA17-6
CGY #17 GODARD06-6
CHI #7 SEABROOK06-6
DAL #43 BOUCHER06-6
EDM #23 TARNSTROM06-6
OTT #25 NEIL28-6
VAN #2 OHLUND410-6
WSH #2 POTHIER17-6
WSH #4 ERSKINE28-6


See, this is why I picked Sergei Gonchar up for my Fantasy Hockey team. He's not just an offensive producer from the blue line, but he picks up the PIMs as well. Heck, I like to call him the "Happy Hooker" since he's led the NHL in Hooking penalties for the last two seasons.

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Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Remembering the Vladinator

Special thanks to Joe Pelletier's prompting, which arrived in my inbox as follows:

"We are heading into Hall of Fame weekend, a weekend where we honour
past greats. Greatest Hockey
Legends.com is challenging hockey
bloggers everywhere to honour your own past great.

What I want to do is get as many hockey bloggers as possible to post
an article, a memory, interactive content of some sort, something or
anything that honours a favorite retired hockey player."

Thus challenged, I'd like to take this opportunity to reflect on one of my favorite retired players, one who was forced into retirement just as his career was reaching a peak; Vladimir Konstantinov.
Believe Patch for Vladimir Konstantinov and Sergei Mnatsakanov

For most hockey fans, their impression of Konstantinov was shaped by the tragic accident that left him and team masseur Sergei Mnatsakanov disabled. During the Detroit Red Wings' championship run in 1997, Konstantinov gained the notoriety that comes with being a prominent member of a Cup-winning team, but the widely anticipated matchup against Philadelphia's "Legion of Doom" (Eric Lindros, John LeClair, and Mikael Renberg) didn't come to pass, as Scotty Bowman instead chose to lull the Legion of Doom to sleep by putting out the blueline combo of Nick Lidstrom and Larry Murphy against them, playing a puck possession game that avoided intense physical confrontation.


What the broader hockey fanbase missed, as a result, was to see how Konstantinov battled night after night against elite opposition to scratch and claw for any victory he could. He was the consummate pest, with the uncanny knack to drive opponents to distraction, yet remain focused himself on what it takes to win a hockey game.


That attitude first became apparent to NHL eyes during the infamous brawl at the 1987 World Junior Championships between the Canadian and Soviet teams. As then-Red Wing scout Neil Smith noted, Konstantinov was "the only one of the Russians who fought back."

My favorite example came in a home-and-home series during the mid-1990's against the Toronto Maple Leafs, when Konstantinov and Leafs captain Wendel Clark went after each other constantly. At one point, just outside the Detroit zone, Clark lost his composure and started popping Vladdy upside the head, and was about to drop the gloves and throw some punches. Instead, the puck came bouncing out towards center ice and Konstantinov spotted it - he immediately disengaged from Clark, broke into the Toronto end using that unique, loping skating stride of his, and scored on a nice backhanded shot.

Besides being a textbook example of the elusive "grit" that NHL general managers crave for their lineup, Konstantinov boasted a high level of skill as well, having developed originally in the Soviet system as a center. As part of the dominating Russian Five, he scored 14 goals and led the NHL in the 1995-6 season with a +60 rating, which remains the best performance in that regard since Wayne Gretzky in 1986-7.

That championship season in 1997 was only Vlad's sixth in the NHL, and he was clearly entering his prime as a world-class defender and intimidator. His open-ice hits brought fans to their feet, and his selfless attitude made him a favorite among his teammates. Because of that tragic accident, we'll never know how far his career might have gone; he was only 30 years old at the time, and clearly had many years of NHL hockey left in him.

So while we celebrate the outstanding careers of this year's Hockey Hall of Fame inductees, we should also reflect on what might have been for the Vladinator.

And having been challenged by Joe, I'd like to call out a few other bloggers as well. PB, Earl, and Christie, you're it!

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Monday, November 05, 2007

A Quintet of Thoughts on This Monday

Here's your smorgasbord of Monday updates, rather than a single, thought-out post:

1) The Penalties Drawn numbers have been updated at the Google spreadsheet. Sidney Crosby still holds the lead with 14 draws, with Scott Gomez, Anze Kopitar, and Dion Phaneuf tied for second with 12. Interestingly, Phaneuf is the only defenseman in the Top 35 in this category. For now,
I've removed the Games Played and Time on Ice columns until I can provide those in a more automated way (for the first week I copy & pasted from NHL.com stats, yuk).

2) Kudos to Jessica Hopp over at the Tennessean, who followed the team on its recent Western Canada swing and has provided some fine articles of late. Over the last few months the Tennessean at least has improved its coverage of the team.

3) And how about this road trip? After the opening loss at Calgary, the Nashville Predators have nabbed convincing wins in Vancouver, Edmonton, and Chicago, thus guaranteeing an above-.500 road trip that concludes Wednesday night in Detroit. The Red Wings are the Western Conference's juggernaut at the moment, and without a doubt this will be the toughest game the Preds have had to face yet. It's good to see the whole team working hard on the defensive end (the penalty killers, in particular, have been outstanding), and Alex Radulov looks about ready to burst things wide open. His shift late in the 2nd period against Chicago was a thing of beauty.

4) I'd like to get advice from any and all out there regarding HDTV's. Due to point #5, I'm looking to make a purchase around the end of the month, and am leaning towards this 50" Plasma from Panasonic. My big question is, 720 or 1080 resolution? I have DirecTV and watch the occasional DVD, and from what I've heard all the DirecTV content is streamed at 720p. If that's true, does 1080 buy me anything other than marginal improvement for HD-DVD content? It seems like getting a bigger, higher-quality 720p model would give a bigger bang for the buck.

5) The heavy-duty number crunching will be slow around these parts for the duration of the month, as we're building a house and will be moving in at the end of November, so my spare time until then will be spent packing boxes and making arrangements. I'll still provide commentary, game summaries, and the occasional stat-driven piece (once all teams get comfortably into the 15-20 games played range, I'll run a PythagenPuck analysis). Please bear with me until December, then.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

Predators-Canucks: Clash of the Titanics

It's a battle of unstoppable forces tonight at GM Place, where the utter inability of the Nashville Predators to win on the road (0-5) matches up with the blundering incompetence of the Vancouver Canucks in front of their home fans (1-5). Right up front I'm going to pat myself on the back for sitting through this one. Staying up for a late-night game between two basement-dwelling teams is what being a dedicated hockey fan is all about, right? Anybody can tune in for Crosby vs. Ovechkin in prime time, but this one starts at 10:00 p.m. Central and I've got a meeting at work tomorrow bright & early at 7:30. So let's get on with it...

Period The First
Dan Ellis gets the start in net for Nashville, against Roberto Luongo for Vancouver. For a team that's scored 3 goals in 5 road games, facing Luongo has to be a daunting prospect.

The Preds open up with a line of Ortmeyer-Bonk-Smithson, but almost immediately switch them off for a new line of Tootoo-Legwand-Radulov (that first shift lasted maybe 5 seconds). Will Alexander Radulov continue to get more ice time? He got 17:20 against Calgary two nights ago, after having averaged 12 to 13 minutes per game in earlier games.

When it comes to stopping the Canucks, one theory I like to toss out is that to stop the Sedin twins, you might be better off focusing on Henrik (the setup guy) rather than Daniel (the goal scorer). Last season, over half of Daniel's 36 goals came after a first-assist from his brother Henrik, making him the most reliant scorer on a particular playmaker in the NHL in 2006-7.

Just over five minutes into the period, J.P. Dumont goes to the front of the net and draws a cross-checking call from Mattias Ohlund. The Preds desperately need an early lead, but the power play has been lousy of late. They do manage to convert when Legwand peels off the right half-boards and sends a low wrister that goes five-hole on Luongo, as Jason Arnott crosses through the crease.

That early lead allows Barry Trotz the luxury of rolling the lines, so the power play is followed up with the Smithson-Bonk-Ortmeyer line, which throws a few hits and keeps Nashville playing an up-tempo game. After a couple minutes pass, Sami Salo blasts a rocket wide of the Predators net, and as the puck caroms around the boards, J.P. Dumont quickly hits Martin Erat streaking up the middle of the ice, splitting Salo and his defense partner Ohlund and putting another shot (this one a backhander) through Luongo's five-hold to make it 2-0 Nashville less than halfway through the period. The boos come loudly and quickly, as the home team has already been feeling the heat lately. The goal is Erat's first of the season, and Predators fans have been waiting anxiously for that bubble to burst.

The boo birds turn to sarcastic cheers when a harmless dump-in is stopped by Luongo a few minutes later, but they really get something to get excited about as Ryan Suter dumps Daniel Sedin away from the play as Vancouver enters the Nashville zone. It's time for the Canucks to go on the power play. The Canucks get one juicy rebound opportunity that Vern Fiddler clears away just in time, but other than that Vancouver doesn't mount much of a threat.

Immediately as that penalty expires, however, Jerred Smithson gets called for Interference, so it's back to the penalty kill the Predators go. So much for rolling those lines... Nashville does kill off the penalty well, however. As the PK'ers head to the bench, Radek Bonk flips the puck in on Luongo again (so as not to ice it), which draws those derisive cheers once again. For a road team, you can't ask for a better start than this.

Although their power play wasn't effective, in 5-on-5 Vancouver has created most of the pressure so far. As the horn blows, the Canucks have outshot Nashville 13-3, but the scoreboard shows 2-0 Predators. If they want to hold this lead, however, the Predators need to generate more consistent offense. Leaving Dan Ellis as the target in the shooting gallery isn't the formula for closing out a game.

Period The Second
Jason Arnott heads to the box for high-sticking right off the bat, putting the onus on the Nashville penalty killers once again. The Canucks aren't shy at all when it comes to firing from the point, but they don't get anything particularly dangerous, and David Legwand does a good job killing some time forechecking in the Vancouver end, keeping them from even setting up their offense in the final 30 seconds.

The Bonk line puts in a good shift banging away and maintaining possession in the offensive zone, and get rewarded for their efforts by drawing a Hook from Henrik Sedin. Nashville sends out Legwand-Arnott-Dumont-Koistinen-Hamhuis for the power play. After their shift is done, Zidlicky lets a puck get by him at the right point, and Trevor Linden takes it the other way, but fortunately Ryan Suter chases him down and forces a long-range wrister that Ellis stops. Brad Isbister shows some hustle chasing down a dump-in and starts a bit of a scrum after the whistle, but not much comes of it (coincidental roughing calls to Suter and Isbister).

Legwand takes another Nashville penalty with about 11 minutes left in the period, and the Predators PK puts in its best effort so far. Canucks are forced into bad passes by aggressive forechecking, and even Dan Ellis gets into the act of clearing pucks down the ice. As well as the PK is working, you have to think the team is tempting fate a bit too much, with four shorthanded efforts during the first half of the game.

One thing to note is that even though the shot totals are heavily in favor of Vancouver, the Preds have fired some shots wide of the net, so it's not like the Canucks are carrying the play entirely. In the defensive end, Nashville skaters are working hard in front of Ellis, blocking or preventing whatever shots they can.

Kevin Bieksa goes down in the corner with an ugly injury; he went in to battle for the puck with Vern Fiddler, and as they both came to a stop, Fiddler's skate looks like it sliced into the back of Bieksa's right leg. Blood littered the ice and Bieksa couldn't put any weight on his right leg as he went to the dressing room.

Vancouver's best chance comes on a rush from Henrik Sedin with about 90 seconds left in the period. He came right down the middle and it looked like everyone was waiting for him to dish off the puck, so instead he took a wrister from the top of the circle and had a good shot at a loose rebound before it was cleared away.

The Canucks get a couple more shots off the rush and force traffic in on top of Ellis in net, clearly stepping up their tempo. Isbister and Hamhuis then get tagged with coincidentals for another shoving match after the whistle. It looks like Isbister is trying to jump-start his guys with a fight, but nobody on Nashville's going to take up that challenge.

Period The Third
Due to the penalties we'll start the 3rd with 1:55 of 4-on-4, which should benefit the smaller, speedier Predators. Forget that thought, however, as it's mostly Vancouver doing the buzzing early on, with only occasional forays the other way for Nashville. Radulov gets a decent shot in that Luongo blocks up high, but most of the Predators' offensive work involves cycling around the boards and killing time.

Greg de Vries gets called for Interference putting the Predators shorthanded for the fifth time in the game, with just over 12 minutes left. They do the job once again, however, and when the play returns to 5-on-5 Nashville gets a couple chances, but one goes awry on a whiff by Martin Erat. The power play then gets a chance to put this game away as Vancouver takes a penalty with nine minutes left...

That power play pretty much consists of throwing the puck around without any solid opportunities resulting. But hey, at least two minutes burned off the clock.

As the Canucks try to mount a comeback, Nashville does a good job of keeping them to the perimeter of the offensive zone, and breaking up passes into the slot. As Vancouver recovers a puck in their own end and tries to send it back up ice, however, Sami Salo catches it right in the face, and ends up heading the dressing room leaving a trail of blood behind on the ice. A tough night for Vancouver defensemen, for sure.

The penalty killers get one more job to do as Martin Erat sends a puck over the glass for a Delay of Game call, with 3:22 left in the game. Again, by and large the Nashville defenders keep Vancouver working the puck around the boards, and when David Legwand takes a puck into the offensive end, he's able to draw a holding call which ends the shorthanded situation.

On the ensuing power play, Jason Arnott popped home a wrister to make the final score 3-0, and hopefully build some confidence for that power play unit which went 2-for-4 tonight. The boos from the home crowd come down like a thunderstorm, but the Canucks didn't play especially poorly tonight, although it was surprising to see those first two goals go in.

Summary
In many ways, this was a classic road win; Nashville got the early lead and held on for all their worth.

My Three Stars
1. Dan Ellis, it looks like he'll get the start in Edmonton on Saturday, given the shutout.
2. The Nashville Penalty Killers, a joint award for killing six shorthanded situations.
3. Jason Arnott, who drove to the net consistently all night long, and got rewarded with a late goal.

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A Thursday Evening Quickie

Check back tomorrow morning, as I'll probably do another live-blog summary of tonight's Predators-Canucks game, which starts especially late this evening. For some previews, check out Canucks Hockey Blog and Waiting for Stanley. This is a battle of the NHL's worst road team visiting the NHL's worst home team; just imagine the possibilities!

In other news, mega-congratulations go out to hockey blogger supreme Eric McErlain, who will lend his talents to the Sporting News twice a week. When I work out at the local Y, the Sporting News is the only sports rag available, and they could certainly use a boost in their NHL coverage. Well done, Eric!

UPDATE: Thanks to Mirtle for informing us of Spector's good news; he'll be writing for the Hockey News website weekly as well. Spector's been churning out great hockey writing and rumor vetting since Ye Olden Days of Ye Internet, i.e. the 20th century, and should be a great credit to the Hockey News.

Also, a recent feature over at Joe Pelletier's Legends of Hockey called "Taking a Stand" focuses on players who made huge differences due to special courage and determination. His latest example of that is Slava Fetisov. I've only got one personalized NHL jersey, and it's a #2 Fetisov jersey from his time in Detroit. Check Joe's profile out, it's always a good read over at Legends of Hockey.

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