Moved

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Tricks and Treats for Nashville Hockey Fans

The chilling tale of the Predators sale approaches the Witching Hour, and we have a host of spirits seeking to terrify and delight the hockey fans of Middle Tennessee:

A Holiday-themed insight into the current state of mind for most Preds fans,

especially after last night's debacle in Calgary.

1) The Globe & Mail's Allan Maki broke the news that Doug Bergeron (originally from Windsor, Ontario) has joined the Freeman group. Does this mean additional capital and stability, or another force looking to relocate the team? Nobody can say at this point.

2) With today being the end of the exclusive negotiating period with Craig Leipold, word comes that the deadline may be extended somewhat if the local investors can hammer out a deal with Nashville Mayor Karl Dean today on adjustments to the Sommet Center lease.

3) As always, the most thorough analysis of this developing situation can be found at the Nashville Post, where Richard Lawson (who is moving to the Nashville City Paper next Monday) provides some background on Bergeron, and also answers a question some Predators fans have been asking - since Ron Samuels, head of the Our Team Nashville movement, runs a local bank, why isn't it stepping up to provide part of the financing for the Freeman group? Head over to the Post for Lawson's answer.

The team, meanwhile, is blissfully thousands of miles away, readying themselves for a battle with Vancouver tomorrow night. As for me, I'll be busy escorting a ladybug and two skeletons on their way around town scaring up bagfuls of candy. Happy Halloween, folks...

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Predators and their Captain go down in Flames

Heading into Tuesday night's tilt at Calgary the Nashville Predators have seemingly righted their ship, having won twice at home over Atlanta and Florida before heading out for an extended five-game road trip. The Flames (5-3-3) have been playing mostly competitive hockey of late, balancing an amazing comeback win over Minnesota last week against a 4-1 loss to San Jose two nights before. In their previous meeting this season, the Flames toasted the Predators 7-4 in Nashville, breaking open a 4-4 tie with a dominating third period. For those of you out celebrating Devil's Night, here's the detailed recap....

Goaltenders:
Chris Mason for Nashville vs. the newly-signed Miikka Kiprusoff for Calgary

Period The First:

Continuing a trend seen against Florida, Martin Erat starts on left wing next to Jason Arnott & J.P. Dumont. Whatever it takes to get him rolling...

At the 18:12 mark David Legwand chases down a sloppily-played puck by Calgary that leads to a breakaway, but as he charges in towards the Flames net he just stuffs a wrister into Kiprusoff. Too bad, really, as he had plenty of room to deke to the backhand instead. Legwand continues to create plenty of scoring chances (he leads the team with 31 shots) without cashing in.

A tripping call to Jerred Smithson at 16:08 puts Calgary on the power play, which only takes them 7 seconds to convert, with Jarome Iginla banging home a centering pass from the top of the crease. Another bad looking play for Greg de Vries, who had Iginla covered but failed to tie him or his stick up. Score: 1-0 Calgary

For most of the early going, Calgary applies pressure in the Nashville end, with only sporadic rushes the other way for the Predators. At 10:33, Legwand picks up a pass off the boards and comes in alone on goal... only to stuff it right into Kipper again.

Yikes, another bad penalty, this time on Radek Bonk behind the Nashville net. The Predators penalty kill has been decent so far this year, and they'll be put to the test here.

Nashville stands strong on the PK, and draws an interfence call on Owen Nolan with 10 seconds left on the Bonk penalty, giving the Predators their first power play chance. They go with Hamhuis-Arnott on the points, with Legwand-Erat-Dumont up front. As has been all too common lately, however, the PP is largely ineffective, failing often to enter the offensive zone with control and never mustering a dangerous scoring chance.

The period ends with the shots 12-12, but I'd wager the time of possession in the offensive end favored Calgary. When the Predators did break out, however, they did get in behind the Flames defense, which occasionally got caught flat-footed.

Period The Second:
About a minute in, Chris Mason makes a strong save on Craig Conroy, who tried to catch the goalie leaning to his glove side. Shortly afterwards, however, Matthew Lombardi soars down the wing to pick up a crossing pass by Jarome Iginla, and lifts a nifty backhander over Mason's stick-side shoulder to put the Flames up 2-0.

Marek Zidlicky gets away with a late elbow that flattens Mark Smith behind the Nashville net. I don't know why Zidlicky is trying stuff like this, particularly since he's not the type to drop the gloves and defend his actions. Neither ref saw the Zidlicky elbow, so they whistle Alexander Radulov shortly thereafter on a ridiculousy cheap Holding call as a makeup. So the Preds deservedly go back on the penalty kill...

About a minute into the kill Vern Fiddler inadvertently hooks Dion Phaneuf, so the Flames get a minute of 5-on-3 action. Greg Zanon gamely blocks a point shot at the start, and then Legwand carries the puck down to get a shot on Kiprusoff. The 5-on-3 gets killed, but then Kristian Huselius lucks out with a whiffed shot that catches Mason moving and puts Calgary up 3-0.

So what's going wrong for Nashville so far? A combination of a lack of consistent offensive pressure on the one hand, and too many penalties on the other.

Kudos to Greg de Vries as he successfully defends a 2-on-1 for Calgary, blocking the crossing pass. I've called out de Vries when he's been scored upon, so it's only fair to point out the good as well.

At this point, of course, Nashville desperately needs to score the next goal. The line of Fiddler-Legwand-Radulov looks to have some jump, but someone needs to take charge and get the Predators on the board.

Calgary changes their style of play, focusing on locking down that three-goal lead. When the play is set up in their end, all five players collapse towards the goal, with the wingers barely above the faceoff dot as shots get fired from the point.

Greg Zanon blocks another shot, and this time limps slowly off the ice. Not a good sign for Nashville.

The Predators' best chance to get back into this game comes after two quick penalty calls on Calgary, giving them 1:34 of 5-on-3 time to work with. Zidlicky and Suter start on the points, with Dumont-Arnott-Bonk up front. They focus mainly on setting up Arnott for the one-timer, and get some decent shots, but Kiprusoff is sharp tonight. Both penalties expire, and Nashville remains 0-for-2007/8 on the road power play.

At the end of a rush coming into the Nashville zone, Kevin Klein gets whistled for Delay of Game for knocking the net off its posts. He bumped shoulders with a Calgary forward right before hitting the net, so it wasn't what I'd call a blatent penalty, but right now nothing's going right for the Predators.

This PK effort is probably their best yet, as the skaters harrass the Calgary puck-carriers and Mason steps up with a fine save. The period ends with another flurry for the Flames, and the Predators still searching for the solution to their offensive woes.

Period The Third:

Coach Trotz sends out the "energy" line to start the 3rd, Tootoo-Bonk-Smithson, but they fail to mount any pressure. On the next shift, however, Martin Erat draws a holding call on Cory Sarich, which again presents a power play opportunity for Nashville. At this point, I'd put that energy line out there on the PP, as the main unit isn't doing much.

Finally, Alexander Radulov puts a nasty wrist shot into the top glove-side corner past Kiprusoff, and the Predators crawl back to within 3-1. Barry Trotz visibly lets out a sigh of relief, but there's still a steep hill to climb.

A few minutes later, Radek Bonk draws a tripping call on Matthew Lombardi, giving Nashville the chance to get back within one. A quick shot by David Legwand staggers Kipper momentarily, but Calgary clears the rebound. The Flames forwards pester the Predators all the way back behind their own goal, and even get a 2-on-0 at one point. Other than getting the puck to Radulov in space, the Nashville power play hasn't shown many interesting tricks.

After the kill is complete, J.P. Dumont hooks Dion Phaneuf, putting the Preds down a man again, not exactly the formula for a successful comeback. Fortunately for them, Adrian Aucoin takes an interference penalty almost immediately afterward, so it's 4-on-4 for 1:52. Good chances are exchanged each way, with Paneuf sneaking in across the crease for a shot, and Ryan Suter pinching low in the Calgary end for a point-blank shot that Kiprusoff stops.

With 9:18 to go, the Preds make their most undisciplined play yet, and this time it's by the captain Jason Arnott. Upset at getting checked while trying to enter the Calgary end, he whacks an opponent's stick away to the corner. It's the kind of senseless, retaliatory move that you'd expect from a hot-headed rookie, not your veteran captain. Not at all a good sign, indeed. The interference call puts his team down a man while trying to mount a 2-goal comeback.

The Preds successfully kill off the Arnott penalty and get a power play of their own with Owen Nolan in the box. This time they set things up pretty well and fire some good shots, but Calgary defenders sweep away the rebounds and prevent the more dangerous chances.

The Flames ice the game shortly afterward as Eric Nystrom gets in behind everyone to take a pass from David Moss and stretch the lead to 4-1 Calgary. On the 2-on-1, de Vries fails to stop the pass, and Martin Erat trails Nystrom by a step the whole way. Chris Mason's played pretty well in the Nashville net tonight, but he didn't have much of a chance on this one.

During the final minute, as the team scrambles to apply offensive pressure, Alex Tanguay breaks out on another 2-on-1 with Jarome Iginla. In what looks like a training camp drill, he makes the pass easily to Iginla who fires it home to make it 5-1 Calgary. And yes, it was Greg de Vries yet again failing to take that pass away (although he at least was in the area code, unlike the rest of the squad).

SUMMARY
The Predators' power play is seriously broken right now, and when you combine that with persistent, unneccesary penalties, it's a recipe for disaster. The Arnott penalty in particular is especially galling. There's no way a professional player should take such a ridiculous action while his team is trying to get back into a game that's not out of reach, let alone the captain of said team.

While the boxscore looks awful, Chris Mason put in a fine effort in goal. He was simply left hanging far too often.

On offense, Alex Radulov looks like the only dynamic force. While Nashville outshot Calgary 40-33, most of those shots were long-range. Right now, as much as Radulov looks like a finisher, David Legwand looks like he's aiming for the goalie's belly button with each shot. His skating ability creates a handful of opportunities, but then results in a pedestrian wrist shot that is easily stopped. J.P. Dumont was basically invisible, and Martin Erat handles the puck deftly on the perimeter, but seems to tentative to head towards the net.

Defensively, Nashville needs Shea Weber back in the lineup ASAP. There's no physical intimidation going on, and plenty of scrambling to cover whirling opponents.

In short, tonight's team looked more like the losers of six-straight than the recent team that won two at home. Thursday's matchup in Vancouver should be interesting, as the Canucks aren't exactly scoring in bunches either. I'm betting on a scoreless game that takes about 15 rounds of shootout action to decide it...

Labels: calgary flames, nashville predators

Monday, October 29, 2007

Updated Penalty Draws, and Some Notes

If you're wondering who's drawing the most penalties in the NHL, I've performed the weekly update over at the publicly available Google spreadsheet. Currently Sidney Crosby leads the way with 12, and then we have a five-way tie between Alexander Ovechkin, Joe Thornton, Scott Gomez, Mike Cammelleri, and Anze Kopitar, who have each drawn 11 penalties this season.

I've added a few columns to the spreadsheet, including Games Played, Average Time on Ice, and Position, for those of you who were wondering about such things. NOTE - There's currently a formatting issue with any player averaging over 24 minutes per game, and I'm hoping to fix that by next week. Dion Phaneuf, for example, shows as having an average ice time of 3:31, rather than 27:31.

WEEKEND NOTES

I missed Saturday night's thriller between the Predators and Panthers, as I took my wife to the Grand Ole Opry, something she'd wanted to do since we moved to Nashville two years ago. I admit, being raised in the suburbs of Detroit I didn't know 90% of the performers there, but we had a good time, and there were a few hockey connections in the evening. Longtime Predators season-ticket holder Vince Gill was part of the festivities, and one of the presenters was Little Jimmy Dickens, a member of the Opry for almost 60 years;

Little Jimmy Dickens, the Chris Chelios of Country Music

It was interesting to see that Barry Trotz didn't cater to dramatic setup by starting Chris Mason against old mentor Tomas Vokoun, but instead went with Dan Ellis who was coming off a shutout Thursday night against Atlanta. Between that and the recent Marek Zidlicky benching, it's apparent that Trotz is establishing a meritocracy in the early going. Perform, and you'll get ice time. Screw up, and sit.

While the Central Division is improving, the Red Wings should cruise handily to another title. Jiri Hudler's top-shelf goal over Roberto Luongo's shoulder last night shows that scoring depth is still strong in Detroit, and that opponents have to worry about much more than the Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Holmstrom combination.

Labels: penalty, statistics

Friday, October 26, 2007

Thrashers Bring the Cure for What Ails You

Last night's 3-0 win over the Atlanta Thrashers certainly was the tonic for many depressed Predators fans; it brought an end to the 6-game losing streak, backup goaltender Dan Ellis recorded his 1st shutout in only his 2nd NHL start, a variety of grinders contributed to the scoring, and perhaps most importantly, Nashville put together three solid periods of hockey, something that had been missing over the last two weeks. Barry Trotz made a couple noteworthy adjustments in this game. First, he jumbled up the lines extensively, putting Martin Erat up alongside Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont for example. Secondly, Marek Zidlicky was a health scratch, reportedly for only the second time in his four-year tenure with the team.

Zidlicky has incredible puckhandling talent, to be sure, but for a defenseman that's often as much a curse as a blessing; if he's the last man back and loses the puck, it's a breakaway for the other team. Was this benching a shot across the bow from Trotz to let the veteran know that he's got to be more disciplined in his approach, or is something more interesting in the works? Some fans got all excited about a post by Eklund that said the New York Rangers "may be talking to Nashville regarding a young offensive minded defenseman." Was Zidlicky scratched because a deal is in the works? I doubt it, as Trotz had some comments after the game that Zidlicky needed to step up his game, and that's not something you typically say about a guy you're trying to pawn off on another team. Plus, there are additional factors such as a no-trade clause that ZIdlicky has, and the salary implications (mostly involving keeping Nashville above the league-mandated minimum), which make such a deal with the Rangers highly unlikely, I would think.

Overall, the game last night held plenty of encouraging signs for Predators fans. Ellis played a strong game, the entire team worked hard to finish their checks and keep Atlanta hemmed in their own zone for extended periods, and there were occasional flashes of individual brilliance, for example by Kevin Klein on his setup of Jordin Tootoo's goal in the 2nd period. That said, there is still room for improvement, particularly on the power play. Entry passes were getting away from their intended recipients, wingers were going offside, etc. It still looks very disjointed, to the point that even moving the puck around the perimeter is an adventure. All the preseason focus on reengineering the Nashville power play has apparently gone for naught so far.

The paid attendance for last night's Predators game is likely to be awful, but one has to keep in mind that this was one of two games (the Calgary game a couple weekends ago was the other) for which partial season ticket holders were granted complimentary tickets, so that represents thousands of freebies handed out.. We should see a positive trend start Saturday night when Tomas Vokoun and the Florida Panthers come to town.

And Falconer, where were you buddy? I showed up in front of the pro shop during the 2nd intermission, but you weren't there. I know things aren't going well for the Thrashers, but losing yourself in the Jim Beam won't do any good (except for benefitting the Tennessee economy, of course, for which we're entirely grateful).

Thursday, October 25, 2007

A Test of Leadership

After Tuesday night's 6-0 drubbing by the Los Angeles Kings, the Predators held a closed door meeting to address their lackluster play of the last two weeks. Will that private session result in shaking the team back into order? The early proof will be seen in tonight's contest with the visiting Atlanta Thrashers (side note: in a symptom of how badly the NHL schedule is screwed up, this is only the fourth time in 10 years that the Predators have hosted the team which is closest to Nashville).

While the message boards are abuzz with the "Fire Trotz!" mantra, the reality is that every NHL team faces a difficult stretch at some point during the season, and the true measure of a team's leadership (coach, captain, assistant captains) lies in how they react to such challenges. GM David Poile's made some comments Thursday morning basically saying that everyone could perform better, it's up to the leaders to provide a working example of how this team can consistently compete and win.

Barry Trotz, Nashville Predators head coach

Come on Barry, show us some fire!

That starts with Barry Trotz, who by all appearances lately, takes victories and losses in stride, understanding the marathon nature of the 82-game regular season. What I, and many others currently see, however, is a lack of in-game passion that trickles right down to the level of play on the ice (I have no doubt that he's motivated and works hard in preparation for games, but I'm talking about attitude on game night here). At key points in recent games, it seems like when a potentially game-changing call (or non-call) is being made, Trotz simply shakes his head on the bench, rather than confronting the officials and making himself heard. This isn't something an NHL coach can do very often (this isn't baseball, after all) but especially early in the season, it's important to establish a fierce competitive attitude within the team, and let all parties know that the coach is ready to battle on behalf of his players. A few recent cases highlight this concern. First, of course, was during the Phoenix game when Jordin Tootoo got clotheslined in retaliation for a potentially dangerous hit on another Coyotes player. Then, in Anaheim, Martin Gelinas got clipped by a Ducks player's blade in the face while going for a loose puck in front of a wide-open net. And most recently, Tuesday night in L.A. defenseman Brad Stuart took multiple whacks at Gelinas' left hand while he was carrying the puck along the boards, exactly the kind of slash that results in broken bones and weeks out of the lineup. In each instance, Trotz could well have gone off on the officials in an effort to both address a situation that could change the course of the current game, and let his players know that he'll stand up for them just like he expects them to stand up for each other.

When it comes to on-ice leadership, the burden falls primarily on new captain Jason Arnott's shoulders. Currently leading the team in points (7) and tied for the team lead in goals (3), Arnott needs to inspire a more consistent effort by the rest of the team. Most prominently, this can manifest itself in a more energetic forechecking effort. Outside of the first periods in San Jose and Anaheim, the Predators have generally had difficulty keeping the play in the offensive end for the last two weeks. In order to maintain that kind of pressure, each successive line needs to hustle and perform the dirty work. Instead, what we've seen is a pair like Radek Bonk and Jed Ortmeyer put in a good 30 seconds of work, but then the next line comes out and the momentum is lost.

It's especially important that the Predators get into the habit of strong, 60-minute games tonight against Atlanta and again Saturday night when Florida comes to town. After that, the team goes on a five-game road trip through Western Canada, Chicago and Detroit, during which team cohesion will be tested severely. Afterwards, blue line anchor Shea Weber should return, and Steve Sullivan will hopefully be ready a few weeks after that. The bottom line is that the team needs to focus first on getting back to .500, and leave the rest of the team goals (playoff spot, Central Division lead, etc.) aside for now. It's still very early in the season, so despite the awful six-game losing streak we've seen, it's most certainly not time to panic... yet.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Bit by Bit, Little by Little...

The pace appears to be quickening in the negotiations between the Freeman group and the Nashville Metro government regarding the Sommet Center lease, which remains the main obstacle in completing the purchase of the Predators from Craig Leipold. This evening, lawyers representing the city sent a letter (available here from the Tennessean) which appears to indicate that the main terms of an agreement have been struck, and in return, the city would like a firmer long-term commitment by the ownership group to keep the team in Nashville. From that letter:

"As we have discussed, the Mayor has indicated a willingness to support an additional operating subsidy for the Sommet Center for a period of five years, as well as the expenditure of $6,900,000 in capital expenditures, in order to assist the local owners to have a reasonable opportunity for success. In order to justify renegotiating the current lease, a new owner must commit to provide NHL hockey in Nashville for a period longer than the Team's current obligation."

Further on, it specifies that the Mayor seeks at least a five-year commitment, and a pledge to repay the additional operating subsidy in the event of the team's departure afterward.

This evening, the Freeman group's lawyer replied as follows:

"NASHVILLE -- The local ownership group wants this team to stay forever.
They are, however, working to ensure the team not only stays, but succeeds,
because it can't do one without the other.

We agree with the Mayor. No one has a "silver bullet" to guarantee the
Predators' success. Just as the Mayor pointed out the City cannot
guarantee ticket sales, we cannot guarantee them, either. Ultimately,
our conversations with the Mayor have always been based on the concept
that the city and the local investors would work together to offer the
community an opportunity - a second chance - to keep the NHL in town.
That opportunity will always require that at least 14,000 people also
want to keep the team by buying tickets to every game.

I think everybody understands and agrees that the local group's
intentions are honorable and that they desperately want this team to
stay in Nashville. We believe the Mayor wants the same thing.

Mr. Thrailkill's letter raises new issues. We will be back in touch with Mayor
to discuss them in the morning."

The back-and-forth is coming quite quickly now, and it appears that the main issues related to revenue streams and bond payments have been addressed. After hearing many times this summer that a conclusion to the ownership drama was right around the corner, Preds fans may have reason to hope that this time it may get done.

Labels: nashville predators

Locals to miss Halloween deadline, but not by much

The following statement was released this afternoon by the legal counsel to David Freeman's Venture 36 Capital group, the local investors who are seeking to purchase the Nashville Predators from Craig Leipold:

NASHVILLE - "The local ownership group can only worry about what we can control. Right now, what we can control is our continued work with the Mayor and his team.

We have presented what we believe is a specific framework that achieves the goals of keeping a viable hockey team in Nashville and respecting the needs of the City. It is our hope to complete this part of the process by this Friday and then deal with scheduling a full and complete public airing of the agreement.

At the end of the day, it will be the collaborative effort of the Mayor, the Vice Mayor, the Council, and the Sports Authority that keeps this opportunity from slipping through our fingers.”

If they can indeed strike a deal by this Friday, then the Metro Council needs at least seven days notice before they would consider the lease adjustments, so the earliest that lease approval could come would be November 2nd, and that's a best-case scenario.

The question now becomes what happens to the current October 31 deadline between the local investors and Craig Leipold. Will Leipold pocket the $10 million deposit and work on another deal with Boots Del Biaggio or Jim Balsillie? Or, if civic approval is mere days away, does he continue to work with the Freeman group and push things to conclusion in early November?

One sign may be that Leipold has put his downtown Nashville condo on the market, so perhaps he, too, senses that the deal with Freeman is nearly ready to close. As always, we're left to speculate based on public proclamations and incomplete information. Hey, at least it takes our minds off that 6-game losing streak for a while, doesn't it?

Labels: nashville predators

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

From L.A., it's the Late Late Live Blog Show

The Nashville Predators are trying to end a five-game losing streak in L.A. tonight against the Kings, and for all of you with early bed-times, I thought I'd capture the action for you, blog-style. Can the Preds keep those young L.A. Guns under control?

The Goalies
Chris Mason vs. Jason LaBarbera

1st Period
Nashville starts out with the new combo of Vern Fiddler/Radek Bonk/Jed Ortmeyer, which goes right to work on the dump & chase, getting a good couple of whacks at a rebound off a Greg de Vries shot. The other new line (Martin Gelinas/Jason Arnott/J.P. Dumont) follows next but fails to make much noise.

L.A.'s first good shot comes off a sloppy giveaway in the Nashville zone. de Vries (who's had a very rough time the last couple weeks) came around behind the net and his pass ended up on a Kings defenseman's stick, which led to a strong shot and rebound opportunity.

Mason has coughed up plenty of juicy rebounds lately, and another one at the 14:12 mark almost results in an L.A. goal, but Patrick O'Sullivan puts the shot wide.

Blech! The Predators catch a bad break, as Mike Cammelleri bangs home a loose puck after a point shot from Rob Blake to put the Kings up 1-0. Blake's shot actually hit Dan Hamhuis's stick about 10 feet in front of Mason, who was going down to make the save. Cammelleri immediately picked it up as he was crossing in front and had a wide open goal to hit. When you're in the middle of a losing streak, these are the kinds of goals that just make you roll your eyes.

After dominating the first periods in Anaheim and San Jose, Nashville looks comparatively sloppy tonight. The offensive chances are few and far between, as Darcy Hordichuk throws a hit or two but nothing much comes of it. They yield another dangerous chance when Mason plays the puck off the boards to his left and misses his d-man, after which Kyle Calder scoops up the freebie and soars in close for a stuff attempt that Mason stops. At this point the graphic shows L.A. with 7 scoring chances, Nashville with 1.

One positive so far is the play of Greg Zanon, a classic battler. Whether it's going down on the ice to block a centering pass, jumping to knock a puck with his glove out of the zone, or diving to poke a loose puck past a Kings forward, he puts in a gritty effort to defend his turf.

After getting hemmed in their own zone for an entire shift, Lubomir Visnovsky bangs home a long shot to open a 2-0 lead with 4:20 left in the 1st. Another bad break for the Preds here as Ladislav Nagy was maneuvering through the slot and just lost the puck off his stick, which Visnovsky then stepped into for the shot. Mason is visibly upset immediately after the goal, perhaps due to screening in front (there were three bodies between him and the shot, two of them Predators). Nashville certainly looks pretty awful at this point.

For a few moments, the Preds appear sprung into action as Erat and Radulov go to work feverishly in the L.A. end. There is definitely some bad mojo working here, however, as after Jason Arnott puts a shot on net A-Rad scoops up a juicy rebound, but gets the puck caught in his feet and can't get the shot off before getting smoked by Raitis Ivanans. The frustrating thing is that on the few occasions he's had to play the puck, LaBarbera has looked shaky, but Nashville can't buy a goal right now.

The period ends with L.A. outshooting Nashville 14-4, and taking a 2-0 lead into the locker room.

2nd Period
The Legwand line opens things up and clangs a quick shot off the post - hey, that counts for progress given how things have gone so far. Ryan Suter sneaks a long shot through and J.P. Dumont is in position for the rebound, but LaBarbera covers that up.

Nashville finally starts getting some possession in the L.A. zone; not much in terms of shots, but possession nonetheless. Martin Gelinas looks like his left hand might have gotten hurt, as Brad Stuart was allowed to take multiple whacks at his hand as he carried the puck along the boards. I'm not sure how a Slashing call wasn't made, as the refs were looking right at him the whole time.

Alright, this is getting ridiculous - Gelinas does head back to the dressing room, but not because of the hand. As he came to the bench, the butt end of another player's stick catches him in the eye. The Halloween ghosts & goblins are really going to work on this team.

Countless TV sets get turned off in Nashville moments later as Ivanans pounds home a crease-crossing pass to make it 3-0 L.A. Derek Armstrong drove down the right wing as Zanon simply hung on for dear life (trying not to take a penalty, he simply coasted alongside rather than taking the body), and while Ortmeyer picked up John Zeiler who was trailing the play, nobody had Ivanans covered on the far side and Mason had no chance to make the save.

After taking the initiative in the early minutes of the 2nd, Nashville appears back on their heels once again. L.A. gets a 3-on-1 opportunity that Dan Hamhuis breaks up nicely, and things open up both ways for a minute or so. J.P. Dumont gets in behind the defense but Visnovsky prevents his shot, and the Preds get a 3-on-1 of their own that Blake stops. Legwand then gets whistled for holding behind the Nashville net, so it's time to put that hot L.A. power play up against the Predators penalty kill.

Well, at least that didn't last long; 23 seconds into the power play Alexander Frolov picks up a rebound out near the right faceoff dot and bangs it past Mason to make it 4-0 at the halfway point of the game. The Kings took a simple approach, with one guy at the blue line, three laterally across the middle of the zone, and one in front of the net. The initial shot came from one side, and the rebound kicked out the opposite way, so Frolov had plenty of empty space to shoot at.

And here comes Dan Ellis into goal for Nashville. Mason yielded 4 goals on 18 shots, and I'm guessing that Pete & Terry won't be doing the usual interview with the bench goalie in the 3rd period.

At this point the Preds just have to focus on scoring the next goal. An opportunity presents itself when Jaroslav Modry gets called for sending the puck over the glass, putting Nashville on the power play. Trotz sends out a four-forward lineup of Arnott/Legwand/Erat/Dumont/Hamhuis, and they just seem out of sorts and disorganized. Entry passes roll off sticks loosely into the zone, players go offside, there's little space to move the puck around, etc. The two minutes pass without a shot on goal for Nashville, and the Kings go right back on the attack after Modry comes out of the box.

What so laughably sad about this game is that if the Predators could only generate some chances, they'd be likely to cash in. When shots do get fired, LaBarbera often seems unaware as to where it goes.

The 2nd period ends with a 4-0 score, and the Predators looking like they can't wait to get out of town. If Coach Trotz is worth a dime of his salary, he'll yell himself hoarse in that locker room to at least see if this team has any fight left for the third.

3rd Period
Jed Ortmeyer moves up alongside Arnott & Dumont on the top line, and I can't remember seeing Gelinas since he went to the dressing room early in the 2nd. Jerred Smithson gets called for Holding which puts L.A. on the power play, and Dustin Brown gets a back-door slam opportunity, but Dan Ellis holds his ground.

Later in the penalty kill, Martin Erat chases down a loose puck in the L.A. zone, but can't make anything come of it and takes a limp-wristed overhand whack at the Kings player who skates off onto the attack. That about sums up the question of whether there's any fight left in the Predators tonight, and the answer seems to be a resounding "No".

Nagy piles on to make it 5-0 Kings, as he outmuscles Marek Zidlicky in front of the net to get a couple whacks that lift the puck over Ellis's shoulder and in.

If getting pounded on the scoreboard wasn't enough to fire up Nashville's pride, perhaps John Zeiler might have done the job. On a routine play as the puck headed towards the boards, he ran Greg Zanon and Vern Fiddler went right after him. The scrap was pretty much a clinch between the two along the L.A. bench, but at least one of the Predators finally stood up. Besides the coincidental fighting majors, Fiddler gets an extra two for interference (?), and there's no charging call on Zeiler, so the Preds go back on the penalty kill. At this point it doesn't matter, but that's a mystifying call. At least Fiddler's contributing some PIM's to my fantasy hockey team, since Arnott & Zidlicky aren't doing squat.

At this point I'm wondering whether Trotz has lost this team (more on that in the next day or two). By now, everyone's just wishing for the clock to speed up. Greg de Vries gets the puck stripped away from him which leads to a scoring chance for Visnovsky coming down the slot, and while Ellis makes the save they have to haul the Kings defenseman down, so yes, it's time for another penalty kill.

Nashville kills of the abbreviated 4-on-3 PP (there were coincidental minors previously), but when it switches to 5-on-4 Mike Cammelleri chips in his 10th goal of the year on a wide-open backdoor feed which pushes the score to 6-0 Kings.

That's the final, and honestly I can't believe I stayed up for the whole thing. More commentary to come tomorrow, for sure. There's simply no sugar-coating tonight's loss; after opening the season with two strong victories the Predators have tanked horribly over the last two weeks.

Labels: los angeles kings, nashville predators

Predators Hoping to Lift Off in L.A.

Last week if you looked at this West Coast road trip, you'd probably say that the Nashville Predators would do well to get anything more than two or three points from combined stops in Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles. The Ducks and Sharks are Stanley Cup contenders, while the Kings are basically a train wreck. By dropping those games in Anaheim and San Jose, however, the Preds have set up tonight's contest in L.A. as a pretty critical game; they need to put an end to this five-game losing streak, and while the Kings boast some impressive young talent in Anze Kopitar and Mike Cammalleri, there are more questions than answers in that lineup. This is a team the Predators should beat, and hopefully the best cure for an offense that can't seem to bury its chances is an opponent without a solid #1 goalie.

L.A. Kings GM Dean Lombardi widens his search for goaltending talent

This game is interesting in that if you look at how the two teams are performing right now, strengths are matched up against strengths, and weaknesses are matched up with weaknesses. For example, the Kings are clicking on the power play so far, ranked 6th in the NHL at 22.2%, while the Predators' penalty kill is also a top performer (6th at 87.9%). Conversely, the underperforming Nashville power play (16.1%, 21st in the league) faces a woeful L.A. penalty kill (78.3%, 23rd in the NHL). The Kings' biggest positional is perhaps in goal, but right now the Predators seem to be putting every shot square into the goalie's chest or wide of the net. One thing that Nashville will have to improve upon is keeping out of the penalty box. Saturday night in San Jose, they left themselves shorthanded four times in the second period, which totally disrupted the momentum they had going in the first, and kept some of their top offensive players off the ice. The Kings, meanwhile, know how to create those opportunities. So far, the aforementioned Cammalleri and Kopitar lead the league in drawing penalties from their opponents, with 11 and 10 such calls respectively.

Earl Sleek over at Battle of California posted an informative piece yesterday that tells us that when it comes to 5-on-5 hockey, the L.A. Kings are getting outscored more than 2-to-1 so far. It looks like Nashville has scored 12 goals 5-on-5 and given up 16, so it's not like the Predators are faring much better there.

According to John Glennon at the Tennessean, Barry Trotz will juggle the lines a little bit tonight, starting with a promotion for Martin Gelinas up to the top line alongside Jason Arnott & J.P. Dumont. Gelinas has been quietly impressive so far, not exactly racking up loads of points but playing a solid game that leaves him one of the few Predators who aren't on the negative side of the +/- rating. Personally, I'm a bit apprehensive about seeing what I think has been the most effective pairing of late (Bonk & Gelinas) broken up, but the experiment that spread the offensive talent across three lines hasn't panned out over the last two weeks. Instead, we're like to see the Arnott line followed by Erat-Legwand-Radulov, and after that it'll be up to the other two lines to hold down the fort.

I don't blame Trotz for trying to spread out the offense and slip guys like Vern Fiddler or Jed Ortmeyer onto top lines (and no, that's not just because I have Fiddler on my fantasy hockey team, the Fab Forecheckers); in the early going, you have to give players a chance to take their games up a level, and see if there's a mix that generates more offense that you'd normally expect (like Dan Cleary last year for Detroit, who in the early months of the season led the Red Wings in goals). Until Steve Sullivan comes back or another player is found in trade, it looks like Trotz will have to rely on his top two lines to try and grab a lead, which then the whole squad can focus on maintaining. It's a formula he's relied upon in the past with less competitive teams, so it's not like he's improvising on the fly here.

Who to watch - L.A. Kings

Anze Kopitar, C - He leads the L.A. forwards with 21:35 of ice time per game, and boasts 4 goals and 8 assists in nine games.

Mike Cammalleri, C - A former University of Michigan star, he's got the hot hand with 8 goals (including 5 on the power play) already.

Who to watch - Nashville Predators

Martin Erat, W - Expected to be an offensive leader, he has only 10 shots in seven games, and is a team-low -4. The Preds need him to focus on goal-scoring.

Marek Zidlicky, D - Tonight presents an opportunity to ignite that dormant power play, and Zidlicky's role is to run the show from the point.

Who draws the calls

As a followup to last week's piece about which players are drawing penalties more frequently than others, I've posted a publicly available Google Spreadsheet which shows updated numbers through Sunday night. I'll try and refresh the spreadsheet each Monday morning throughout the season, for your viewing and downloading pleasure. If you're using Excel or OpenOffice, you can easily Export this document into your favorite format for your own use (such as totalling by team, or whatever you like). As with the Super Schedule, if you have anything you'd like to see added to this spreadsheet, or have other suggestions for information which you'd like to see posted, drop a note in the comments and I'll see what I can do. When I've got some time I'll also update the template here to provide a quick & easy bookmark to this information, as well as some other stuff that I may post as well.

The leaders through the October 21 games are as follows...

Team	No.	Player	Pen. Drawn
L.A	13	CAMMALLERI	11
S.J	19	THORNTON	10
L.A	11	KOPITAR	10
WSH	8	OVECHKIN	8
PIT	87	CROSBY	8
NYR	19	GOMEZ	8
DET	13	DATSYUK	8
PIT	12	MALONE	7
OTT	12	FISHER	7
N.J	16	ZUBRUS	7
BUF	61	AFINOGENOV	7
ANA	15	GETZLAF	6
ANA	21	O'DONNELL	6
PHX	11	HANZAL	6
MTL	21	HIGGINS	6
EDM	83	HEMSKY	6
CHI	88	KANE	6
CGY	12	IGINLA	6
CAR	13	WHITNEY	6
CAR	12	STAAL	6
BUF	19	CONNOLLY	6

That sure looks like an All-Star cast of characters drawing calls from the referees, doesn't it?

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Taking the Lid off the Vid of Sid the Kid

There shouldn't be doubt in anyone's mind that Sidney Crosby carries the NHL's fortune on his (hopefully) able shoulders. Groomed for years to be the standard bearer for professional hockey, Crosby has given fans everything they could hope for in his first two seasons; a scoring title as a teenager, countless highlights to draw in the casual fan, and a Gretzky-like awareness of his responsibility to the business aspect of hockey in terms of marketing and promotion. When I'm flipping through the Center Ice channels and I see a Penguins game, it's a guarantee that I'm going to stop for a while in the hopes of seeing something truly special. Crosby is a fan's (and league commissioner's) dream come true.

We're also fortunate that Crosby is joined by dynamic young rivals like Alexander Ovechkin, which should benefit all hockey fans as we watch them constantly try to one-up each other year after year. Crosby's fans are so rabid that even questioning his greatness brings motivated supporters out of the woodwork. One post I wrote back in March looked at the prevalence of first- vs. second-assists, and if one took the perspective that second assists generally aren't as critical as the primary one, that reduced Crosby's offensive dominance compared to players like Lecavalier, Ovechkin, and Heatley. The emails simply poured in, decrying any criticism of the game's #1 star. All in all, that's a great thing; it's wonderful that Crosby doesn't just put up fantastic stats, but he inspires a legion of fans that are re-energizing the league.

Versus is going to air a special (6:30 Eastern on Tuesday) prior to the upcoming Rangers/Penguins game called "Sidney Crosby Revealed", and the good folks there passed along this sneak preview, wherein Crosby discusses the nature of the "new NHL" and how he fits in. Enjoy...

A Saturday Night Stinker, and a Sunday Stroll

Last night's 3-0 loss in San Jose carried much the same stench as Wednesday's defeat in Anaheim. The Predators played forcefully enough in the early going, failed to cash in on scoring chances, and got bitten by critical miscues later on that allowed the Sharks to steal the win. Chris Mason, thank goodness, looked sharper than he has in a couple weeks, but the guys up front have left him no margin for error.

Heading into the next game at Los Angeles, perhaps Barry Trotz needs to shuffle the deck, splitting up the usual duos of Jason Arnott/J.P. Dumont and David Legwand/Martin Erat (those four players combined for a mere 6 shots last night). Sometimes that forces players to take a fresh approach and focus on the basics. No matter the case, the Kings game looms terribly large in light of what is now a five-game losing streak.

Here are some links I'd recommend for a leisurely Sunday stroll around the hockey world:

Joe Pelletier's Legends of Hockey network is always worth your spare time, but two articles in particular are worth catching today. First, he goes through his updated Hockey Blog Power Rankings, which serves as a great jumping-off point to some of the great writing to be found out there (and thanks Joe for including this humble tome), and secondly, he has a new piece up which discusses the fine art of penalty killing, and includes a list of the top 25 Shorthanded Goal Scorers of all time.

Illegal Curve boasts an insightful interview with Eric Duhatschek, probably the most renowned hockey writer in captivity. Eric touches on a number of issues, but the best bit covers a tryout he had with the Calgary Flames as a young journalist, and how most fans fail to grasp just how amazingly talented even the lowliest NHL player truly is.

James Mirtle bundles together some quotes describing Chicago Blackhawks rookie sensation Jonathan Toews' eye-popping goal from the other night against Colorado, along with an early look at the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year) race. One huge problem with local sports coverage here in Middle Tennessee is that the local TV sports news persistently ignores the rest of the NHL, and it's a shame that they can't get plays like this in front of the general sports fan. That's what helps sell the game.

Mike Chen shares with us his experience with a somewhat disturbed fan at a San Jose game, something I think we can all empathize with. Back in the early 1980's my dad took me to see a pro wrestling show, and a guy behind me yelled only two things over and over again the entire evening; "Step on His Head!" and "Come on, Referee!" Versatile phrases that apply to just about every match, to be sure, but a little variety would have been nice.

On the opposite end of the scale, there's a wonderful, drawn-out piece over at Theory of Ice wherein E describes just how she fell in love with the game of hockey; as with so many of us, it begins with a difficult struggle with Persian syntax. A brief snippet:

That play I saw on HNIC last year, though, was something entirely different from ordinary life. It was a moment that was really a moment, not a prolonged multimedia moment, not a stretched and distorted slow motion replay moment, but a moment that was true to the transient essence of moments. Blink and you’d miss it entirely, for it was only there for an instant, exactly long enough to happen and no longer. It vanished as quickly as it appeared. But while it was, it was glorious. It was thought, perception, skill, motion, intention. It was physical and mental, but the grace and the glory of it was that it was all this in one whole. Slow it down, analyze it after the fact, and you could pick apart all the constituent elements, but at the time it was just one thing that encompassed everything. It was a skating singularity, a checking meditation. It was perfect. It was being.

Enjoy your Sunday...

Labels: hockey blogs, nashville predators, san jose sharks

Friday, October 19, 2007

Halloween Horrors

I know, I know, detailed discussion of arena leases can incite riots of excitement, but I'll take that risk today in light of the approaching October 31 deadline that exists on the Nashville Predators sale. The drive for local investors to purchase the team has hit a bump in the proverbial road, not due to resistance or disagreement between the parties involved, but rather the complicated legal implications of dealing with the bonds that the city of Nashville issued to fund the construction of the Sommet Center and related improvements.

Basically, there are two main types of bonds that governments issue. First are general obligation bonds, which are paid back out of the government's overall ability to tax. The most prominent example of this type are U.S. Treasury securities, which are the bedrock of the finance industry as they are generally considered to be the lowest-risk $US-denominated investment vehicle out there, backed by "the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government." As detailed in an analysis by Richard Lawson of the Nashville Post earlier this week, the bulk of the Sommet Center bonds are of this type. The other category of bonds are revenue bonds, which are paid back out of the revenues of a specific activity as defined in the bond contract. Quoting Lawson, there are also revenue bonds involved here, which are:

"for the building out the arena for the Predators and the franchise fee for bring the team here. The city also would issue [revenue] bonds for any capital improvements sought by the investors, which Metro is required to do under the current lease. Sales-tax and seat-use revenue pay the principal and interest on those additional bonds. "

No, not James Bond... Revenue Bonds

The problem here is that even though the Freeman group (Venture 36 Capital, which I'll call simply V36) crafted their lease negotiation request to use the sales tax and seat-use revenue to pay them an arena Management Fee (so-called "but for" funds, because they would not be available "but for" the Predators remaining in Nashville), those funds are already dedicated to the repayment of the revenue bonds, so they're simply not available to be redirected unless, under one scenario, the city called in the existing bonds and reissued new ones, which would add a huge complication to the whole setup, getting into tax liability and other murky waters. Nashville's legal eagles have been working on how get around that issue, and they've basically come up against a brick wall on that front.

In interviews this week, new mayor Karl Dean has said that he's open to different approaches (not, however, using property tax money which pays for schools, police, etc.), but that the burden is on V36 to come up with a proposal that the city can work with, and more importantly, that the city needs the proper time and analysis to make a sound judgment in that area, which makes having a deal done in time for an October 31 sale increasingly unlikely, given the number of parties that would have to sign off (V36, their financiers, the mayor, the Metro Sports Authority, and the Metro Council). The Nashville governmental bodies have put a lot of work into this effort, but the bottom line for them is that the Halloween deadline is an issue between V36 and current owner Craig Leipold, not their problem per se. Also, since the mayor and Metro Council just took office last month, and this wasn't an issue during the election, all of these politicians have other priorities that they want to move forward on in the meantime.

Under the current negotiating agreement, V36 has exclusive rights to negotiate with Craig Leipold and complete the purchase of the Predators until October 31st. They obtained those rights in exchange for a non-refundable $10 million deposit. Could the agreement be extended with Leipold? It doesn't appear that there's been a request from V36 for an extension, but perhaps there's room for a deal where in return for additional time, V36 ponies up an additional deposit towards the purchase of the team.

Jim Balsillie is, of course, still lurking in the weeds, and Leipold could simply pocket the $10 million then see what Balsillie's willing to pay at this point. Boots Del Biaggio could also take his shot at majority ownership, rather than being a minority partner in the local group, which would seem to be a boost to those hoping to bring the NHL to Kansas City. With Del Biaggio, however, you have the prospect of Anschutz Entertainment Group (AEG) still being brought in to run the Sommet Center, which most assumed was his goal in obtaining a hockey team for Kansas City. AEG, with its nation-wide strength, is likely to be able to wring better performance out of arena operations, as well as bring more top-line acts and sponsorship deals to the table, making a Nashville operation much more attractive.

For local fans, Del Biaggio would be the preferred alternative to Balsillie, who, despite taking down the Ticketmaster site receiving deposits for NHL hockey in Hamilton, clearly remains bent on bringing a team to his home turf as quickly as he is able. Nobody in their right mind believes the letter that he recently had sent to the Metro Sports Authority, in which it is claimed that Balsillie previously misunderstood the Nashville market and that he is "committed to Nashville as a viable hockey market."

So where we stand right now, less than two weeks away from Halloween, is that V36 needs to act quickly to come up with a viable lease renegotiation that accomplishes the main goal of providing the incentive for them to operate the Sommet Center more profitably, which can be a win-win situation for both the team and the city of Nashville. If they can't come up with an alternative deal very quickly, then they'll need to negotiate an extension to the binding agreement with Craig Leipold (and give him a good reason to do so), or risk seeing the team sold instead to Del Biaggio or Balsillie.

The downtown area is bustling and growing by leaps and bounds, and the Predators can act as both a foundation for that development as one of the main attractions in the city, and as a beneficiary of having more people living, working, and entertaining in the heart of Nashville. The next two weeks are going to be an especially stressful time for local fans, as we'll probably get news updates almost every day on the progress (or lack thereof) being made. My guess is that we won't know until the day of the 31st as to whether the binding agreement between V36 and Leipold will be extended, or the V36 deal collapses entirely. It just seems that when it comes to these matters, major movement only occurs right at the brink of a deadline. So stay tuned, it's going to be dark & stormy fortnight...

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Close But No Cigar in Anaheim

Last night's 3-1 loss in Anaheim stretched the Predators' losing streak to four games, but there was certainly a night-and-day difference to how the team performed despite dropping the decision. Chris Mason was mediocre in net (a big step up from last week), and at least during the first half of the game, the forwards did a good job cycling the puck and generally carrying the play into the Anaheim end.

One episode in the third period raised an interesting question, however. At the end of a play near the Nashville net, Chris Kunitz dropped the gloves and started throwing punches at Predators defensemen Marek Zidlicky, who instead of engaging, covered up with his gloves over his face and waited things out until the linesmen intervened.

What stunned me was that Zidlicky got five minutes for fighting just as Kunitz did, even though he never dropped his gloves or threw a punch (Terry Crisp called it "five minutes for receiving"). Was it just a case of referees giving a major to each player simply out of habit? Certainly at the beer league level, I've seen this a zillion times, where one Bob Probert-wannabe starts throwing punches at someone who actually has a job to go to the next day. Even if one player covers up and doesn't retaliate, they both usually get the major penalty. Against a hyper-aggressive team like Anaheim, goading them into penalties and capitalizing on the power play is a good plan of attack, and a major power play would have represented a big opportunity for Nashville, which was down 2-1 at the time.

So I went back through all the penalty calls from the 2006-7 NHL Regular Season to see if fighting majors are always coincidental. In total, there were 985 Fighting majors handed out, of which 7 were not coincidental. So it's not unprecedented for the refs to make that call.

While some fans will be upset that Zidlicky didn't fight back, or that Coach Trotz didn't send the goons out immediately to send a message, I thought the team did the right thing; keep playing their game and try to win. Travis Moen also seemed to bristle for a fight whenever he got checked, but that's hockey. You lay the body on guys and either intimidate them or try and draw a retaliation penalty. Unfortunately for Nashville, they didn't cash in on the two power plays they did get, and they'll try to get a better result in San Jose Saturday night.

NOTES

Alexander Radulov got 18:45 of ice time last night, and made a nice play to set up Ryan Suter on Nashville's only goal.

Ville Koistenen looked reasonably effective, while Greg de Vries was a team-low -2 and logged the least ice time among the defensemen at 13:05.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Thrashers leave their Hart in Philadelphia

Well, it looks like I'm wrong once again. A few weeks ago I guessed that Craig MacTavish would be the first NHL head coach to be fired this season, but the ax fell this morning on Bob Hartley in Atlanta instead (found via Kukla), after an ugly 4-0 loss last night in Philadelphia. Hardly surprising given the Thrashers' expectations after their division title last year, and the awful 0-6 start this season, which includes the rare double accomplishment of a league-low 1.5 goals per game, paired with a league-high 4.5 goals against. Heck, if you go back to the playoffs last year, the Thrashers are in a 0-10 slide in games that count.

To paraphrase the original CBC caption, "Bob Hartley ecstatic not to coach the Atlanta Thrashers anymore."

Last night on TSN, Bob McKensie said that Hartley and GM Don Waddell had been given contract extensions this summer and that a move like this would cost the Atlanta ownership, but this article from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution a couple weeks ago says otherwise. It looks like they'll be able to cut their losses and move on, with Waddell assuming the bench duties for now. Strike up the rumor mill for who's going to take over in Georgia!

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Predators in a Fowl Mood

The Nashville Predators start a three-game West Coast swing tonight in Anaheim, against a Ducks team coming off an impressive 6-3 triumph over the Detroit Red Wings Monday night. It will be interesting to see how the Predators respond to Barry Trotz's high-intensity workout on Sunday after a disappointing 7-4 loss to Calgary the night before. The players said all the right things afterward, but the proof will be a strong team effort at both ends of the ice.

The big challenge for the Predators is to regain the defensive composure that's been missing in recent losses to St. Louis, Phoenix and Calgary. Even though it's still early in the season, pressure is mounting on #1 goaltender Chris Mason to shake off last week's outings and establish some consistency in net. Of course, it's not all up to him, as the defense corps has struggled while trying to make up for the loss of Shea Weber.

On the offensive end, there's reason for optimism. Alexander Radulov has stepped up his game of late, particularly when paired with David Legwand and Martin Erat (so much for that idea), and the Jason Arnott/J.P. Dumont combination is consistently producing, as each has 3 goals in the first five games. Even Radek Bonk, who was brought in to anchor the third line, has found the net lately, scoring twice against Phoenix last Thursday and again on Saturday versus Calgary.

In Anaheim, Nashville may be facing the proverbial awakening giant. The Ducks are coming off a ridiculous early schedule, that had them not just open the season in London, England with two games against the Kings, but then follow that up with three more games on the road in the span of four days in Detroit, Columbus, and Pittsburgh, before finally returning home. Contrast that with the absurdly easy travel schedule of the Boston Bruins, who (as pointed out by Matt at Battle of Alberta) for the remainder of the season don't have to leave the Eastern Time Zone. Yet another classic example of how badly the NHL needs to adjust scheduling for next season.

The other challenge the Ducks are overcoming is dressing a complete, healthy lineup. Besides Mathieu Schneider, Anaheim will also miss Todd Marchant and Todd Bertuzzi to injury.

In terms of some of the main metrics of performance; 5-on-5 Goals For/Against, PP%, and PK%, Nashville is handily outshining Anaheim so far, and without Marchant and Bertuzzi the Ducks' special teams may still be hampered somewhat. The Predators are catching the Ducks at a good time, and tonight presents an opportunity where a playoff-caliber team typically takes charge and nails down the road win.

NOTES FROM LAST NIGHT IN THE NHL
Wow, Calgary goes up 4-0 early in the 2nd in Colorado, but gives it all back by the end of the period and loses in a shootout. I'll bet Mike Keenan is thrilled to back coaching again.

The Minnesota Wild have been dominating in the early going, but that wasn't enough to help them against the juggernaut known as the L.A. Kings.

Tomas Vokoun is looking like his old self again as he stopped 36 of 37 shots and led the Florida Panthers to a shootout victory in Montreal.

The misery continues for Atlanta, as the Flyers toasted the Thrashers 4-0.

I've shown before that when it comes to the shootout, matching the shooting hand of the skaters with the catching hand of the goalie results in a significant increase in scoring percentage for the shooters, particularly against those few goalies who catch with their right hand. Last night, we saw Jose Theodore and Tomas Vokoun (both righties) in the shootout. Against left-handed shooters, they turned aside all five attempts. The lone righty who had a chance, Jarome Iginla, scored on Theodore. And it's not like those coaches didn't have good right-handed shooters available. Michael Ryder, Bryan Smolinski, Owen Nolan and Craig Conroy all stood by and watched their teams lose. Heck, Mike Keenan used Dion Phaneuf as his first shooter against Theodore, who made the save and pushed Phaneuf's career SO mark to 0-4. I guess not enough NHL coaches are reading this blog...

Labels: anaheim ducks, nashville predators

Monday, October 15, 2007

Hook Me, Trip Me, Tell Me Lies

One of the more interesting features in the upgraded Play by Play files that the NHL is providing this season is the "Drawn By" indicator for penalties. We now can tell which players are forcing the opposition into commiting fouls. In the past, it's always been suspected that star players draw favorable calls, and when it comes to agitators like Sean Avery, fans try to justify their contribution by arguing that pests like him goad opponents into taking penalties, resulting in value for the team by creating power play opportunities.

By Hook, Slash or Trip, opponents will try anything to stop Anze Kopitar (image from Sharkspage)

So when we look at the 2007-8 season so far, which players are drawing the most penalties? We've got 77 games in the book through Sunday night, and here are the league leaders (coincidental penalties excluded)...

Player		Penalties Drawn
Anze Kopitar, L.A.		9
Ryan Malone, PIT		7
Alexander Ovechkin, WSH		6
Mike Cammalleri, L.A.		6
Joe Thornton, SJS		5
Sidney Crosby, PIT		5
Martin Hanzal, PHX		5
Jason Spezza, OTT		5
Mike Fisher, OTT		5
Derek Armstrong, L.A.		5
Nathan Horton, FLA		5
Ryan Getzlaf, ANA		5
Mike Green, WSH		4
Marcus Naslund, VAN		4
Ryan Kesler, VAN		4
Vaclav Prospal, TAM		4
Brad Richards, TAM		4
Dany Heatley, OTT		4
Scott Gomez, NYR		4
Dainius Zubrus, NJD		4
Ales Hemsky, EDM		4
Geoff Sanderson, EDM		4
Tomas Holmstrom, DET		4
Pavel Datsyuk, DET		4
Tuomo Ruutu, CHI		4
Jarome Iginla, CGY		4
Chad Larose, CAR		4
Erik Cole, CAR		4
Rod Brind'Amour, CAR		4
Ray Whitney, CAR		4
Todd Bertuzzi, ANA		4
Jason Pominville, BUF		4

I'd say that so far, the vast majority of these leaders fall into the "skill player" category, creating dangerous chances that can only be defended against by hauling them down and drawing a call. Also of note here is the utter lack of defensemen outside of Washington's Mike Green. Over the course of the season this will be a statistic worth watching - just as Alan Ryder pointed out the cost of players who take penalties, those forwards who draw such calls against an opponent provide incremental value to their team, likely enough to earn a point or two in the standings. I'll provide updates on this periodically throughout the year...

Friday, October 12, 2007

Bouncing Balls

Thanks again to Richard Lawson at the Nashville Post, we have word that Jim Balsillie is still working hard to purchase the Nashville Predators, this time by sending a note to the Nashville Sports Authority that claims that if he owned the team, "the existing arena operating agreements will require no changes whatsoever unless they benefit the Authority and the residents of Nashville."

Is this an effort to undermine the current Freeman/Nashville negotiations, or indeed a genuine change of heart on Balsillie's part? His representative also wrote in that note,

"I am completely convinced that Mr. Balsillie’s understanding of the Nashville market at that time [earlier this year] was incorrect, and that Mr. Balsillie recognizes that. He is now committed to Nashville as a viable hockey market, one in which he strongly desires to own a franchise; and that he will commit the resources that are necessary to lead to a Stanley Cup for the Predators and Nashville."

I would be very interested to hear, straight from Balsillie's mouth, how he "misunderstood" the Nashville market before, and what specifically has changed his mind.

The letter also claims that Balsillie would be willing to greatly increase the penalty for breaking the lease, and waive the issue of whether this season counts as the "cure season" in terms of hitting the 14,000 paid attendance mark that could also void the lease.

I believe the proposal also outlines a solution to global warming, a detailed trilateral solution to the political difficulties in Iraq, and includes a working draft of a perpetual motion machine.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Call the Coyotes, Colin Campbell

The 20-game suspension to Steve Downie was supposed to send a message to the NHL about reckless hits. As we saw yesterday with Jesse Boulerice, however, head shots are still in vogue among the league's marginal thugs. Tonight, Phoenix's Craig Weller put his name up for consideration by the league office for suspension after clotheslining Predators agitator Jordin Tootoo in the 3rd period.

With the Coyotes up 4-2 in the 3rd, Tootoo took a run at Daniel Winnik as he came around the Nashville net with his head down. It was a legal play (didn't leave his feet, led with his shoulder), and Tootoo pretty much whiffed on the hit anyway. The puck came up the boards to Weller, and as Tootoo came up the ice Weller just slung his right arm around Tootoo's neck, slamming him down to the ice. Weller then tossed his gloves aside as if he was ready to scrap, but Tootoo was still down and Martin Gelinas tied him up (and got a mysterious roughing call for his efforts).

What kind of player gives up the play with the puck on his stick to attack another player like that? And how did the Flyers let a guy like this slip through their fingers? It'll be interesting to see what kind of suspension (if any) Weller receives, as it also leaves open the question of whether suspending a marginal talent like that really penalizes the team at all. Perhaps a fine or suspension for the coach should be considered? If not in this case, certainly it should be an option for Philadelphia, which has had two such episodes in a short time, as noted over at Red & Black.

It's too bad that this incident obscures a solid effort by the Coyotes tonight in a 6-3 win. They jumped out to an early lead on the Predators and Alex Auld stood tall in the face of some excellent pressure by Nashville, particularly from Alexander Radulov who had his best game so far (mostly playing alongside Legwand & Erat again).

Labels: nashville predators, phoenix coyotes

Predators Coming Home For Leftovers

The Predators come home to face the Phoenix Coyotes tonight at the Sommet Center, and need to get back on track (not "untracked") after last night's 4-1 drubbing by the St. Louis Blues. Nashville is fortunate to also catch the Coyotes playing on back-to-back nights, as they come in from Columbus after having been beaten 3-0 by the Blue Jackets (recap to be found at Army of the Ohio).

The Phoenix Coyotes have scored just 4 goals in 3 games so far.

Some bite-size facts:

Phoenix captain Shane Doan turned 31 yesterday (hence the spanking by

Columbus).

The Coyotes have a triumverate of goaltenders they're sorting through, so the Preds won't see David Aebischer, who played Wednesday against the Blue Jackets. According to the Arizona Republic, Auld gets the nod tonight.

If this game goes to the shootout, here are some relevant goaltending numbers. For total save percentages in the shootout (covering both 2005-6 and 2006-7), Auld sports a woeful .567 for Phoenix, while Chris Mason stands at .760 for Nashville (average is .667). Auld hasn't faced any current Predators in the shootout, and the only current Coyote that Mason has faced is Radim Vrbata, who scored in one attempt last year.

The top shooters for each team in the shootout (both seasons total, minimum 5 attempts) would be Shane Doan (.500), Steve Reinprecht (.400), and Radim Vrbata (.308) for Phoenix, and Alexander Radulov (.500), Martin Erat (.333), and Marek Zidlicky (.167) for Nashville. This is one area where the Predators will miss Paul Kariya, who stands 2nd in shootout scoring percentage at .667.

My Call:

My guess is that this won't make it to the shootout, as Nashville notches a convincing win, something like 3-1 or so.

Labels: nashville predators, phoenix coyotes

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Brad Boyes, Brad Boyes, Whatcha Gonna Do?

Heading into tonight's game in St. Louis, you couldn't quibble with the Predators 2-0 start, except perhaps to say that both victories were games that a top team is expected to win, as both Colorado and Dallas had played the previous night and had to fly into Nashville on little rest. Against the Blues, the same argument could be made. Despite being a popular pick to return to the playoffs, St. Louis came in three defensemen short (Jay McKee, Erik Johnson and Eric Brewer) and goaltender Manny Legace was playing on a wonky knee.

The Recap
Early on, a rather pedestrian-looking 3-on-2 for St. Louis gave Brad Boyes a wide open opportunity coming down the slot. It looked to me like Greg de Vries failed to stay home on his man and take that crossing pass away. Chris Mason challenged, but Boyes flipped it in easily for a 1-0 lead. Darcy Hordichuk threw down with D.J. King shortly thereafter, battling hard to a draw with his much larger opponent. Nashville seemed intent on laying the body on St. Louis early and often, although ultimately that may have led to some early penalties.

Boyes made it 2-0 on a rebound opportunity, following up on his own shot to widen the St. Louis lead. You had to feel for de Vries this time, as he did stay home to protect the back door, only to leave enough room for Boyes to pick up that rebound as a result. Sometimes, even doing the right thing results in a puck in the back of the net.

The Blues pretty much stifled the Nashville offense through most of the 1st, including a strong, aggressive PK effort midway through the period. The 2nd didn't get off to any better of a start for the Preds, as Ryan Johnson put a nifty backhander over Mason's shoulder on the short side to stretch the lead to 3-0.

As if that wasn't bad enough, a Lee Stempniak goal a few minutes later pushed things to 4-0, and chased Mason from the net (although in his defense, he had Martin Rucinsky fall into him and his stick was pinned). Barely halfway into the game, it seemed time to warm up the bus for a quick trip out of town.

Comic relief came on a D.J. King breakaway, when he got off an incredibly weak wrister that made this longtime beer-leaguer feel a little better about himself for making similar flubs all the time. Considering the incredible amount of skill demonstrated by even the lowliest NHL player, when they slip up it makes reminds us how difficult the game of hockey truly is.

The Nashville offense finally sparked to life late in the second, as the Arnott/Dumont pair got some good chances and ultimately Jordin Tootoo slipped one through Legace's five-hole after a slick feed from Alexander Radulov to make it 4-1 St. Louis. Heck, if people don't like Radulov playing alongside Bonk & Gelinas, perhaps they need to line him up with Tootoo & Hordichuk?

Down by three heading into the final period, Barry Trotz answered the prayers of many Predators fans by lining up Radulov with David Legwand and Martin Erat. They immediately got some shots on net, but nothing particularly dangerous. During a 4-on-4 situation Erat and Dan Hamhuis set up a nice chance for Legwand, which left a rebound that lay right outside the crease for de Vries, but he whiffed mightily. The final score was 4-1 Blues, and the Predators headed home to kick the dog, err, the Phoenix Coyotes, tomorrow night.

Notes
Dan Ellis, who turned aside 14 shots in relief, is one active goaltender. He came way out to play a puck near one of the faceoff dots late in the 3rd, and spun around to fire it behind his net. Other times, he danced dangerously close to the dreaded Trapezoid of Doom, tempting a Delay of Game call.

Ville Koistenen looks pretty comfortable out there, and seemed reasonably efffective during some PP action.

While de Vries was the most visible D-man out there for a couple goals against, he also showed some savvy on the offensive end, sneaking through for rebound or back-door chances when the team was trying to make a comeback late.

Labels: nashville predators, st. louis blues

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Ignore This Post

This is a test of something I might try. No content here...

Watch the latest videos on YouTube.com

Monday, October 08, 2007

Rolling out the welcome mat

Now that the NHL season is well underway, I thought it would be a good time to introduce this blog to the new visitors who have been stopping by. Traffic is up 200-300% since the end of last season, so I'm sure there are plenty of first-time visitors arriving and wondering, "what the heck is this mess?" So, here's a brief introduction, followed by what I think might be some useful and/or interesting resources for the discerning hockey fan.

I've been writing about hockey online since the mid-1990's, originally for a site called In The Crease, but also another one called eSports for a while. There was an 8-year interlude while I lived in Indiana that put a halt to my hockey writing, but upon moving to Nashville in the fall of 2005 I decided to take up the keyboard once again. Instead of merely commenting on the action, however, something else caught my eye and led me to the sparsely populated niche of hockey statistical analysis.

The idea behind On the Forecheck has been to try and gather additional information about the NHL from the statistics and data we have available, particularly the play-by-play data provided on NHL.com after each game. While the accuracy of those reports have often been called into question, my feeling is that fuzzy information is better than no information, and that by working with this stuff and shouting our findings from the rooftops, the NHL might eventually find it in their own best interests to improve the quality of data capture. As the Falconer observes over at Thrasher's Talons, "I see the use of statistics [by NHL teams] as inevitable since number crunching has proven to supply advantages to certain baseball teams and such analysis has now spread to the NBA and NFL." In the modern salary-cap era, it's not how much you spend, but rather how smartly you spend those precious salary dollars. Statistical analysis offers the prospect of greatly increasing the amount of information that GM's and coaching staffs have available in their competitive toolbox.

The bottom line is that if we understand the data for what it is, we extend our knowledge of the game and possibly slay some ill-conceived notions that have made their way around the hockey-loving culture. For instance, there's a common notion that a team earning the best regular season record is somehow a bad thing, and that the Presidents Trophy is somehow "cursed." Baloney, I say! And what about the idea that the shootout is basically a coin-flip and that there's little strategy that can be applied to help a given team win? I say, match the shooter's hand with the goalie's catching hand when picking your shooters, and you'll fare pretty well.

Anyways, the basic structure here is that I try to check in daily on what's going on around the league, and particularly with the Nashville Predators (some of whom show up on my fantasy hockey team). The left-hand sidebar contains internal links within this site, to some of the more popular articles that have been posted (particularly the Alternative NHL Awards and Is It Better to Give Than Receive, which looks at team hitting). One resource I've made publicly available is the "NHL Super Schedule", a Google spreadsheet that contains the complete 2007-8 NHL Regular Season schedule, along with columns showing how many days have elapsed since the last game for each team, as well as how far they travel and the strength of the opposition in terms of final 2006-7 team statistics. You can download it yourself into Excel or OpenOffice's Calc, and take a look at how your team's schedule looks this year.

The right sidebar contains links to great hockey resources around the web, whether blogs (first the generalists, and then broken down by division), or other websites like the NHL Players Association. I try to keep that blogroll relevant by not merely linking to every site I can find, but rather the ones that I think truly add to the conversation related to NHL hockey on the web. If you're interested in a particular stat, like Giveaways, you can always use the Search box at the upper left corner to look for posts containing that word within this blog.

For Nashville Predators fans, I also have a publicly accessible Google Map which shows which restaurants and bars in Nashville support the team. Before you head to lunch or dinner, I'd encourage you to take a look at the map and make an informed choice as to where you spend your dining dollars.

Anyways, I'm always open to questions or suggestions as to what should be studied next, so either leave a note in the comments, or email me at the (dot) forechecker (at) gmail (dot) com. And thanks for stopping by...

Labels: hockey blogs

Friday, October 05, 2007

Predictions for the 2007-8 NHL Regular Season, Part Two

I covered the overall team standings a few days ago, so now it's time to look at individual achievements and assorted goofball predictions:

Rocket Richard Trophy (goal scoring): Dany Heatley, Ottawa Senators

Art Ross Trophy (overall scoring): Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins

Hart Trophy (MVP): Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins

Vezina Trophy (goaltending): Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks

William Jennings Trophy (fewest goals against): Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota Wild

Calder Trophy (rookie): Jack Johnson, Los Angeles Kings

Franke Selke Trophy (defensive forward): Sammy Pahlson, Anaheim Ducks

James Norris Trophy (defenseman): Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings

Jack Adams Award (coach): Jacques Martin, Florida Panthers

And now the silly stuff...

First Coach To Get Fired: Craig MacTavish, Edmonton Oilers. They've flashed some cash to bring in new players, but as they languish in the standings I'm guessing he'll take the fall.

Comeback Player: Mike Comrie, New York Islanders. He should have plenty of opportunity to get back to the 60-point production of years past. He'll need to develop into a star if he's going to keep dropping $100K cars on girlfriend Hilary Duff.

"Don't Come Back" Player: I picked Jeremy Roenick last year, and I'm sad to say I have to nominate him again. I still don't understand why the Sharks picked him up.

Labels: predictions

Predators please the crowd on Opening Night

You can't ask for a much better start to the Arnott/Mason era than last night's 4-0 pasting of the Colorado Avalanche. The new captain potted a pair of goals (helping my fantasy team immensely), the new #1 goalie got a shutout, and Jordin Tootoo got into a scrap to please the crowd.

As Mrs. Forechecker and I got on the escalator to head for the upper bowl, who should step in alongside us but none other than Terry Crisp, who of course does the color commentary for Predators games. With my homemade business card at the ready, I gave him a quick "elevator pitch" (I know, we were on an escalator, but that's splitting hairs) about this blog. Of course, in my rush to talk about the blog, I forgot to introduce myself and tell him my name, but hey, it's a start. Crispy is obviously a fun guy to meet - you could tell he was pumped for the game and his energy and enthusiasm were contagious.

As to the game, the score pretty much speaks for itself. I'm sure the fact that Colorado played the previous night in Denver took some starch out of their game, but the Avs looked like a mess in their own zone. The top Nashville line of Fiddler-Arnott-Dumont looked outstanding, and the Legwand line's speed countered Colorado well most of the night. The Avs got some dangerous chances, but for one night at least, they were half a step slow to some loose pucks around the net.

Some of the more interesting numbers to come out of the game:

Greg Zanon blocked 6 shots,

Ryan Suter led the Nashville D with 25:01 of ice time, after Shea Weber left in the first with a leg injury,

Alexander Radulov only got 12:35 on the ice. In the 3rd, it looked like he was replaced by Jerred Smithson on the Bonk/Gelinas line as the Preds focused on locking down the 4-0 lead.

Nashville has a tough task ahead to follow up on this win as the Dallas Stars come to town on Saturday. The Stars are pretty much the Anti-Avalanche (anemic offense, solid veteran D and a top-flight goaltender), so the style of the game is likely to be quite different. Once again, however, the Preds are catching a team travelling to play on consecutive nights, as the Stars host the Boston Bruins tonight in their home opener. These are the games good teams are supposed to win, and more importantly, win in regulation. Taking two points from a conference rival is nice, but allowing them to steal a point by making it to overtime lessens the victory.

Blogging Note: There's a new addition to the Yardbarker NHL network in Danny Richmond, a homegrown Chicago Blackhawk blueliner. Check out his blog for regular updates from the perspective of a young NHL player.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Anschutz! Gesundheit...

A few days ago, James Mirtle pointed out a piece by Eric Duhatschek of the Globe and Mail that peeled back the curtain a bit on the Anschutz Entertainment Group (AEG), the shadowy entity behind not just the L.A. Kings but also a number of arenas and sports franchises around the world. One of the lingering storylines that keeps Kansas City's hopes for a Predators relocation alive is the fact that Boots Del Biaggio has had an agreement in the past to bring NHL hockey to an AEG-run facility in K.C., so the thinking goes that the powerful influence of AEG could help pry the Preds out of Tennessee.

The local ownership group led by David Freeman, however, hopes to make things work in Nashville largely by squeezing more profit out of the Sommet Center to help cover the costs of running the hockey team. The opportunity is there to bring an additional 30-50 non-hockey events to boost that business.

And how, exactly, would the Freeman group bring those extra events to the Sommet Center, and streamline the arena operations to start realizing those profits?

By bringing in AEG to run the arena, of course, according to a report this morning by the Nashville Post's Richard Lawson. Quoth the Post:

"Under AEG, Sommet Center and the Predators could pick up more national advertising and corporation sponsorships and share in the revenue, one industry insider said. The insider said AEG can sell across all the arenas it manages."

The conspiracy theorists are apparently wrong about AEG wanting to manipulate the Predators out of Nashville; they're so far ahead of the game that they'll make out no matter whether the Preds stay or go!

Perhaps the big winner in this scenario would be the Sommet Group, a local firm that signed on for area naming rights just last spring. If AEG comes in and succeeds in drawing more big-name attractions to the Sommet Center, it only boosts the visibility of the arena and the resulting value to the Sommet Group by leaps and bounds.

A Radical Decision by Barry Trotz

Tonight the Predators open their 10th anniversary season at home against the Colorado Avalanche, and while previews galore can be found 'round the web, I wanted to pipe in on a particular coaching decision that has many Nashville fans up in arms:

Radulov starts season on No. 3 offensive line

Whither Radulov?

Yes, the Music City's budding offensive superstar is starting the on the right side of Radek Bonk and Martin Gelinas, and many Preds fans are howling in disbelief.

But I like this move, and I like it a lot. Here's why...

In today's NHL many coaches don't focus on particular three-man forward lines anymore, so much as combining a two-player pairing with a complementary player who fulfills an otherwise overlooked role to provide balance. For example, Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont will provide the scoring punch on the top line, with Vern Fiddler playing a supporting role (hustling into the corners, etc.). David Legwand and Martin Erat will head up the second line, with Jed Ortmeyer providing the physical play.

When it comes to Bonk & Gelinas, you have two veteran, defensively responsible forwards who can not only provide a good working example for A-Rad to follow, but they can also help generate those neutral zone turnovers that the youngster can take the other way and catch opposing defensemen out of position (which to my mind, has always been a hallmark of classic Russian hockey - generating your best offensive chances by being patient and capitalizing on turnovers).

Remember that Radulov will get his offensively-focused prime time on the power play as well (last year he averaged 1:50 per game on the PP, and I expect that to double this year), so it's not like I'm saying Coach Trotz should get play him purely in a defensive role. While it would be nice to have Peter Forsberg in uniform centering him (that combo was a real treat to watch last spring), in the meantime I'll take this setup and see how it works for a month or so. If it doesn't gel, then fine, put him in there with Legwand & Erat and let's see if they can make something happen.

One last note - before you head down for tonight's game, if you're going to grab a bite to eat, please consider choosing one of the businesses that supports the team. I've updated the Google map considerably since earlier this summer, and you should be able to find a wide variety of places to eat around Nashville. Simply type in your location, and look for the blue markers to pop up...

Mrs. Forechecker & I will be in section 317 tonight taking in the action. After a summer of ownership and lease negotiation drama, it's nice to have some full-speed hockey to enjoy.

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Not so fast, doomsayers

There has been a tidal wave of stories in the MSM and blogosphere proclaiming the end of the local ownership bid to purchase the Nashville Predators in the face of political opposition, but Richard Lawson of the Nashville Post puts forth a detailed report this afternoon that gets right to the point:

"Is the situation dire? No. Don't be surprised if a deal is announced today or tomorrow. New Mayor Karl Dean and the investors have been going full steam behind closed doors for the past few days."

What happened earlier this week was that the mayor's office rejected the proposal that landed on their desk over the weekend from the Freeman group. As a newly elected official who only took office on September 21st, there was no way he was going to simply read that proposal and respond with a "this looks great! Where do I sign?" Politically, he has to go through the back-and-forth process and extract some value for the city of Nashville before reaching an agreement. On the opposite end, Freeman felt obligated to make a public statement that said this really is a do-or-die deal, underlining the seriousness of their stance. But as Lawson details in his article, there are plenty of minor portions of the lease that leave room for negotiation.

It's been a frustrating week watching these stories make the rounds, and I would have liked to comment directly within many of the blog pieces out there (Mirtle, Jes Golbez, Tom Benjamin, Chuqui, et al) but my workplace has a pretty strict web filter that prevents commenting on most blogs.

I just hope we get a positive declaration on all this prior to tomorrow night's opener at the Sommet Center. That would truly be something worth cheering about...

UPDATE: The Tennessean gets into some of the capital improvments that the Freeman group is asking for.

Labels: nashville predators

Bienvenue, Montreal

As part of their season preview package today, the Montreal Gazette features a piece by Don MacDonald called "Moneypuck", which discusses the growing field of statistical analysis related to NHL hockey. I've got a small blurb on the second page of the article.

Also, kudos go out to the Tennessean for a fine section previewing the upcoming Predators season. For all the bashing I (and others) tend to get into over our local paper, it's appropriate to tip the hat when they get something right.

Lastly, I wanted to point Preds fans (or anyone else interested) over to Off Wing Opinion, where Eric McErlain has excerpts from Keith Jones' new book Jonesy. There are a couple anecdotes from when Jones played for Barry Trotz in the AHL that are well worth a read, with the most interesting being the time when Jones was on the ice for seven goals against in a single game...

Predictions for the 2007-8 NHL Season, Part One

With today's North American launch to the 2007-8 NHL season, it's high time to chip in with the obligatory predictions. So here we go...

Eastern Conference Standings

1. Ottawa Senators (NE champ)

2. Florida Panthers (SE champ)

3. Pittsburgh Penguins (ATL champ)

4. New York Rangers

5. Atlanta Thrashers

6. Buffalo Sabres

7. Toronto Maple Leafs

8. New York Islanders

--------------------

9. New Jersey Devils

10. Washington Capitals

11. Montreal Canadiens

12. Carolina Hurricanes

13. Philadelphia Flyers

14. Tampa Bay Lightning

15. Boston Bruins

Western Conference Standings

1. Detroit Red Wings (CEN champ & President's Trophy)

2. Anaheim Ducks (PAC champ)

3. Calgary Flames (NW champ)

4. San Jose Sharks

5. Minnesota Wild

6. Dallas Stars

7. Nashville Predators

8. Vancouver Canucks

--------------------

9. Colorado Avalanche

10. Columbus Blue Jackets

11. Los Angeles Kings

12. St. Louis Blues

13. Edmonton Oilers

14. Chicago Blackhawks

15. Phoenix Coyotes

The basic idea here was to take a rough cut and predicting Goals For and Against for each team, running that through PythagenPuck to get an approximation of points in the standings, and that plugging in additional points for Shootout Victories and overtime losses (sometimes you lose 4-3 in regulation and get no points, sometimes you lose 4-3 in OT and get one). In the end, it's a combination of seat-of-the-pants guesswork and formulaic balancing, so it's got a whiff of scientific application along with standard barstool bluster.

I guess what surprised me a little bit was seeing Calgary and Florida come out so highly, but the common denominator there is solid goaltending and at least a decent offensive punch. Some of the other teams with confidence in net are crippled with more anemic attacks (like Dallas, Vancouver, Minnesota and New Jersey).

In the Western Conference, it was interesting to see the results of this analysis match up with hunches that I posted a few weeks ago in response to Mirtle's playoff prediction poll. I thought at the time that Colorado would miss out, and that line of reasoning still holds true. I think adding Ryan Smyth only augments an area of the team that was already strong, while the addition of Scott Hannan isn't that much of an upgrade to a defense that lost it's leading +/- player in Ken Klee.

ProBlogger's Birthday Bash - win some stuff

Just a quick note this morning to my fellow bloggers about a giveaway over at ProBlogger's Birthday Bash, which is one of my daily reads and a truly useful resource for those who either hope to eventually earn bus fare from their blog, or just improve their writing in general. Today's giveaway is for a 20-inch USB-based monitor, and all it takes to enter is a post like this which links the Birthday Bash.

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Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Tricks and Treats for Nashville Hockey Fans

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Predators and their Captain go down in Flames

Monday, October 29, 2007

Updated Penalty Draws, and Some Notes

Friday, October 26, 2007

Thrashers Bring the Cure for What Ails You

Thursday, October 25, 2007

A Test of Leadership

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Bit by Bit, Little by Little...

Locals to miss Halloween deadline, but not by much

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

From L.A., it's the Late Late Live Blog Show

Predators Hoping to Lift Off in L.A.

Who draws the calls

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Taking the Lid off the Vid of Sid the Kid

A Saturday Night Stinker, and a Sunday Stroll

Friday, October 19, 2007

Halloween Horrors

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Close But No Cigar in Anaheim

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Thrashers leave their Hart in Philadelphia

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Predators in a Fowl Mood

Monday, October 15, 2007

Hook Me, Trip Me, Tell Me Lies

Friday, October 12, 2007

Bouncing Balls

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Call the Coyotes, Colin Campbell

Predators Coming Home For Leftovers

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Brad Boyes, Brad Boyes, Whatcha Gonna Do?

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Ignore This Post

Monday, October 08, 2007

Rolling out the welcome mat

Friday, October 05, 2007

Predictions for the 2007-8 NHL Regular Season, Part Two

Predators please the crowd on Opening Night

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Anschutz! Gesundheit...

A Radical Decision by Barry Trotz

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Not so fast, doomsayers

Bienvenue, Montreal

Predictions for the 2007-8 NHL Season, Part One

ProBlogger's Birthday Bash - win some stuff