Moved

Friday, June 29, 2007

Free Agency Mania Starts Sunday

So that means you don't have much hockey news to worry about on Saturday. If you've got kids, take 'em to see "Ratatouille". The Little Forecheckers (ages 5, 5, and 4) gave it three thumbs up Thursday night...

Canadian Baloney, starring James Mirtle

A tireless refrain from the Canadian media is that Nashville is an absolute failure as a hockey market, and failing to move the team north of the border is an exercise in folly by the NHL.

Our latest exhibit comes from James Mirtle, usually one of the more thoughtful hockey bloggers extant:

But Nashville, quite simply, has proven it cannot sustain an NHL hockey team. Even with the lowest ticket prices in the entire league (I know: I've looked into flying there for a game or two) and a ridiculously forgiving arena lease, the team has had attendance issues despite having one of the best records in the league.

It's not a matter of Canadians not wanting teams in the southern U.S.; I've argued time and again in favour of teams like Dallas and Tampa Bay that have supported their teams and really brought something to the table in terms of bringing news fans and new energy to the game. That's a good thing.

The Predators, however, are not that, not in the beginning and certainly not now, and they never will be. Even with an owner as forgiving and deep-pocketed as Craig Leipold, the experiment has failed miserably, and the team will be leaving as soon as it can extricate itself from its lease agreement.

Once again, we're caught having to fend off the vultures who want to write off Nashville as a lost cause prematurely. There's no doubt that establishing a hockey fan base in foreign territory is a long term proposition, but one shouldn't discount the fact that when talking about Dallas and Tampa Bay, they've had Stanley Cup championships to build around, which provides a huge bandwagon effect. The Predators have yet to come anywhere close to that kind of postseason success, since they've never made it past the first round, which was a particular disappointment the last two years after earning home-ice advantage.

"I'm not dead yet... I just bought my Radulov jersey!"

So where to begin the dissection? Let's start with "the lowest ticket prices in the league". According to Teammarketing.com's survey, Nashville comes in at #19 in the NHL for average ticket prices, not #30 after all.

Secondly, paid attendance figures are on a clearly positive track. I got paid attendance averages for previous years from John Glennon at the Tennessean, and the darkest days are clearly in the rear-view mirror, with the team not far from getting back to the strong level of support seen in the first two seasons:

So what caused that ski-slope decline from 2000-2003? Let's think back to that bandwagon effect, and remember that in the fall of 1999, the NFL's Titans came to Nashville, appeared in Super Bowl XXXIV, and for the next few years were a strong team led by a league MVP in Steve McNair, making an AFC Conference Championship appearance in 2003. During that time, the Predators fielded a patchwork team that was clearly uncompetitive, and merely aspired to a .500 record, let alone a playoff appearance. It's no wonder that under those circumstances attendance suffered. In an established hockey market like St. Louis or Chicago they refer to hockey-savvy customers not buying what ownership is selling, but in Nashville it's deemed a congenital defect in the market.

It takes time to rebuild from that deep a trough, but since the nadir of 2002-3 paid attendance is up over 30%, and efforts this summer appear to be building momentum towards continued improvement this upcoming season, making it likely that the magic 14,000 mark will be surpassed. Obviously, the goal would be to get that figure more towards 16,000 or higher, but the biggest factor there is seeing some genuine playoff success in Nashville to get casual fans more deeply involved with the team. Last year was the first time the team was felt to be a real contender heading into the regular season, and their playoff flop against the Sharks was a huge disappointment. If they had made it into the second round the average attendance would have topped 14,000, and we likely wouldn't be having this story to talk about this summer. Regardless, many critics say that lackluster support for a successful regular season is a hallmark of failure. But having been told for so long that the regular season doesn't matter, what should we expect?

So much of the discussion in sports media over the last several years has been that "the regular season doesn't matter, only championships do." We see captains refusing to hoist the Campbell Bowl or Prince of Wales Trophy, and generally treating the President's Cup like it was Aunt Millie's ancient fruit cake getting passed around the table. When you consistently hammer home that message, why should anyone be surprised that support wasn't surging just because the team was in 1st place back in December? In my mind, professional sports in general needs to reconsider that message, as the bread-and-butter of their business is the regular season - you shouldn't tell folks that they're paying thousands of dollars to see games that don't really matter.

In short, this patient isn't dead yet, and is in fact making strong progress (note how quickly all the home playoff games sold out this spring). What this is really all about is a hockey mad country that is enjoying a flush of economic purchasing power, and has powerful Canadian Loonies burning holes in it's collective pocket. Currency swings can be unpredictable however, and if this tide reverses, we could see the Calgary's and Edmonton's of the league crying poor once again:

The Canadian dollar has soared against US$ since 2003.

Remember that NHL player salaries are paid in US dollars, so over the last few years a Canadian ticket price that just stays flat is able to buy 50% more player on the open market. It's no wonder they want another franchise so desperately. At the moment, they could easily support a competitive team.

There's no question in my mind that Canada should get an expansion team well ahead of Kansas City, but Nashville shouldn't be tossed off as a failure just yet. Momentum is on the upswing in the Music City, a prosperous, growing area that can certainly support an NHL team over the long term. Maybe Craig Leipold doesn't have the wherewithal to make it through these lean times to see that stage occur, and that's unfortunate, but fresh ownership that commits to winning can make it happen.

In short, don't confuse the desire for another Canadian team with a judgment that Nashville is a lost cause. Those two points aren't intertwined, and if Mr. Balsillie is so hell-bent on owning a Canadian franchise, then he should certainly be able to outbid other would-be expansion groups in order to make that happen. That, at least, is one certain way that he could line the pockets of current ownership and avoid thorny legal battles on his way into the NHL club.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Moose leads 2007 class into Hall of Fame

You can't argue too much with the inductions of Mark Messier, Scott Stevens, Al MacInnis and Ron Francis this year into Hockey's Hall of Fame. With only four players being inducted each year, it's inevitable that some worthies get left out, most notably Igor Larionov this time.

What is especially impressive about this class is that none of them would really be considered borderline candidates - Messier was part of the Oilers dynasty of the 80's and carried it forward after Gretzky left, and cemented his place in history with the Cup win in 1994 for the Rangers. Scott Stevens terrorized opposing forwards manning the New Jersey blue line, while MacInnis broke more than one goalie's catching hand with perhaps the wickedest slap shot the game has ever seen. Francis was the quiet professional, always just outside the limelight but year after year standing alongside the game's greatest players.

One side effect of the 2004-5 lockout is that there will be catch-up year available for the Hall next time to consider players like Larionov and Adam Oates, as you didn't have players retiring from the NHL at that time.

Labels: commentary

Balls Out, Bags In?

Word is coming this morning that Nashville Predators owner Craig Leipold is calling off his deal with Jim Balsillie, and is instead prepared to sell the team to "Boots" DelBiaggio, who has a contract in place to run an NHL team in Kansas City.

As I wrote back in March, however, I still don't understand why Kansas City is such an attractive market for the NHL. Yes, they have a new arena that's waiting for a full-time permanent tenant, and the city is willing to bend over backwards to lure a team. But that market is already saturated with two major-league teams (the NFL Chiefs and MLB Royals), as pointed out by bizjournals.com last year. The Chiefs are well supported but the Royals are nothing more than a AAA feeder team for the rest of Major League Baseball, due to their minimal payroll and tepid fan support. In that analysis, KC ranked as the 5th-most overextended sports market, and was the most overextended market that doesn't already have an NHL team (this spreadsheet has all the details).

Simply put, there's good reason to believe that Kansas City may be the absolute worst place in the U.S. to put an NHL team. There just doesn't appear to be the available disposable income to support the teams they already have, let alone adding a new franchise to the mix.

For Predators fans concerned about possible relocation, there is more uncertainty around DelBiaggio's bid than there is with Balsillie, who said one thing publicly about respecting leases, but whose actions belied a clear intent to move the team to Hamilton ASAP. Is DelBiaggio more willing to play by the NHL's rules, or is he simply more savvy in pursuing his goals than the brash Balsillie? We'll have to see how this develops over the next few weeks.

Also lurking in the background is a potential bid by local businessmen in Nashville, which may come in the next few days. That bid would involve raising a little over half the capital and borrowing the rest, so I wouldn't think it holds as much clout as a cash-in-hand offer such as we've seen from "Boots & Balls".

On the local lease front, the push for support appears to be meeting with some success. New season ticket sales are up over last season, and even some of the Preds players are looking into buying season tickets in an effort to help hit the 14,000 mark and keep the team in Nashville. Local fans still have a chance to prove they deserve to keep NHL hockey in town, and while we're still early in the game, the signs are encouraging so far.

Labels: commentary, economics, nashville predators

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Hottest and Coldest Shooters

As we enjoy these calm few days before the frenzy of free-agent mania hits, I thought I'd provide an update on the hottest and coldest shooters of the season just passed. Our guide here is the concept of Shot Quality, pioneered by Alan Ryder and (as implemented here) used to express the probability that a given shot is going to result in a goal, based on distance from the net, shot type (slap, wrist, etc.) and situation (power play, even-strength, shorthanded). Basically, 200 shots from a defenseman firing from the point aren't going to produce as many goals as 200 shots from a winger who fires more often from the slot.

It's important to remember that the accuracy of the information recorded during NHL games is often less than we'd desire, and while I'm not (in this post) going to the extreme of introducing rink-by-rink effects to try and somehow "correct" the data, Alan's latest piece regarding these problems is well worth a read. I'll utilize it here mainly to qualify some of the results at the end.

Our criteria here is for shooters with a minimum of 100 shots, measuring Actual Goals against Expected Goals, excluding empty netters. Expected Goals is calculated by adding up the Shot Quality factor for each individual shot over the course of a season. For instance, if a 20 foot wrister on the power play has a 19.13% chance of scoring, that shot is worth 0.1913 Expected Goals. The difference between that and Actual Goals tells us how "hot" or "cold" that shooter was, without having corrected for the opposing goaltenders.

Hottest Goal Scorers 2006-7 Regular Season
PLAYER	TEAM	EXP	ACT	DIFF
Alexander Semin	WSH	23.41	39	+15.59
Vincent Lecavalier	TAM	35.28	50	+14.72
Jason Spezza	OTT	19.38	34	+14.62
Sheldon Souray	MTL	11.28	25	+13.72
Chris Drury	BUF	23.25	36	+12.75
Teemu Selanne	ANA	35.75	48	+12.25
Kristian Huselius	CGY	18.94	31	+12.06
Jason Pominville	BUF	21.20	33	+11.80
Jason Staal	PIT	16.43	28	+11.57
Nathan Horton	FLA	19.75	31	+11.25

And the coldest of the cold?

Coldest Goal Scorers 2006-7 Regular Season
PLAYER	TEAM	EXP	ACT	DIFF
Jaromir Jagr	NYR	42.63	30	-12.63
Scott Gomez	NJD	25.32	13	-12.32
Matt Cullen	NYR	27.19	16	-11.19
Vaclav Prospal	TAM	23.65	14	-9.65
Jeff Carter	PHI	22.74	14	-8.74
Bobby Holik	ATL	18.52	10	-8.52
Corey Perry	ANA	24.14	16	-8.14
Henrik Sedin	VAN	17.96	10	-7.96
Marek Svatos	COL	22.39	15	-7.39
Alexei Zherdev	CBJ	17.07	10	-7.05

So now, some of the qualifications. The data quality problems that exist appear to indicate that games in Madison Square Garden, for example, have shots recorded with much higher shot quality than in other rinks (what the MSG scorer records as a 25 footer may have been 30, etc.). That causes Jagr and Cullen to appear much worse in these standings than is truly likely (as their Expected Goals are inflated), and the effect is probably on the order of 15-20% of their total Expected Goals value, which would move them out of this top 10 list although still leave them underperforming.

On the other extreme, Tampa Bay's scoring led to a low Expected Goals value, so Vinny Prospal looks even worse when taking that factor into account, probably adding a couple more goals that he should have scored. That similar effect makes Vincent Lacavalier's results look a little less "hot", and the same would apply to Buffalo's Chris Drury and Jason Pominville, whose Expected Goals figures would be revised upwards by about 10% based on Ryder's analysis. By and large, however, the players on this list had either "lucky" or "unlucky" seasons, and it is entirely possible that their fate may change dramatically next year. Few shooters consistently over- or under-perform against expectations, giving hope to some fans, and perhaps instilling caution in others.

Labels: offense, shot quality

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Updating the Balsilliemeter

Back when the sale of the Predators was first announced, I introduced the Balsilliemeter, a highly technical and scientifically advanced gauge to monitor the level of goodwill that a Nashville Predators fan should feel towards the prospective new owner. At that point, Balsillie began with a 4.5 rating on a scale of 1 to 10, based on the buzz that surrounded the possibility of a New Economy billionaire joining the NHL, and initial statements that GM David Poile would have a budget restrained only by the salary cap when it came to assembling a winner.

Needless to say, quite a bit has changed since then, and the Balsilliemeter has steadily declined over time, standing currently at 1.5. His intention to move the team out of Nashville as quickly as possible couldn't be any more plain, and his bull-headed tactics may end up costing him the deal. The Old Boys Club doesn't like to be pushed around, and Balsillie seems unwilling to slow things down to the pace that they would prefer.

Maybe he can land an expansion franchise and eventually be a credit to the NHL, but from the perspective of a Nashville Predators fan, you don't want to see Mr. Blackberry taking over the helm.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Friday, June 22, 2007

I like it, I love it...

Two huge developments broke just within the last few hours:

#1: Boots DelBiaggio, who had been in the bidding for the Predators (and would presumably have them relocate to Kansas City) indicated that he's no longer interested in pursuing the team.
#2: Current owner Craig Leipold has informed the NHL that his deal with Jim Balsillie is OFF. That's right, Mr. Blackberry is NOT getting his hands on the Nashville Predators.

That's right, Hamiltonians, emphasize that "maybe".*

I wonder if the local money that's been building will enter into a minority ownership agreement with Leipold at this point. If so, that would make two eerily prescient posts for me in one week, so I guess the next step would be to head to a casino...

Now, I do feel sorry for the hockey fans in Hamilton, who have gotten jilted once again - frankly, southern Ontario would seem to be an ideal expansion market (in my mind, after Hartford and Vegas).

But, I don't feel sorry for the many people who trolled the Predators message boards and other internet forums blasting Nashville as a lost cause. Hockey is on the rise here in Music City, and now the focus can shift towards getting excited about the coming season (granted, there is still the 14,000 mark to be achieved, so work remains).

After all, if the 14,000 mark isn't hit, and the team can break the lease, there's nothing to prevent the team leaving town at that time. At least now, we don't have to worry about a billionaire coming in and weaseling his way out of a legitimate lease. Instead, the burden is on the fan base in Nashville to prove it deserves to be an NHL city. I have every confidence that it will rise to the challenge.

UPDATE: The announcement posted at the Predators website sounds much less definitive than the report from TSN:

“We did send the NHL a letter today requesting that it not do any further due diligence on Jim Balsillie’s offer for the Nashville Predators until we reach a binding agreement. If Jim is interested in reaching a binding agreement, we are prepared to move forward.”

So who knows exactly what this means - is Leipold throwing extra conditions into the agreement? Is Balsillie holding off on certain points? We'll have to wait and see...

*Image shamelessly ripped from a comment made by Ben underneath a post over at Mirtle's blog.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Allow me to pat myself on the back...

Nashville Predators GM David Poile seems to be following my plans perfectly so far. On Tuesday I wrote that in order to assemble the best squad possible for the league minimum salary of roughly $33 million, he'd need to concentrate on re-signing his role players for minimal sums and trade Tomas Vokoun and his $5.3 million salary in order to clear up room to either retain Paul Kariya or add another difference-maker up front via free agency.

Step One: Jerred Smithson retained for $1 million over 2 years, CHECK
Step Two: Qualifying offers made to an assortment of Restricted Free Agents, CHECK
Step Three: Tomas Vokoun traded to Florida for draft picks, CHECK

You're completely relaxed, Mr. Poile, now listen closely...

Now let's focus on the remaining steps:

Step Four: Make an offer to Paul Kariya for somewhere close to what he made last year ($4.5 million)
Step Five: Hire a stats-savvy blogger as a consultant to the team for future endeavors such as this. I think you can find one here.
Step Six: Add a veteran stay-at-home type on the blue line for dependability purposes sometime next month. Over the next week I'll post my assessments of the available talent, so wait for your instructions until that time.

What I find interesting is that I can't find much discussion about trading Vokoun before my piece on Tuesday. I don't pretend to have any kind of "inside scoop", I'm just making commentary here, and it's just interesting how quickly this came to pass.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators, trades

Thursday, June 21, 2007

The Great One sounds off on the Predators

In their never-ending series of articles trying to make the Nashville Predators' relocation to Hamilton seem like a done deal, today's Globe & Mail has an article citing an interview with Wayne Gretzky, in which he lauds the support for hockey in Hamilton and tells the fans in Nashville, "that's business, that's life."

Coach Gretzky

You'd look like this too after two straight years in the Pacific Division basement.

Well, you have to give them some credit. If there's anybody in the league who's an expert on disastrous hockey failures in the southern US, it's gotta be Coach Gretzky.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Saruman didn't have to worry about free agency

The one guy you have to feel for over the next few weeks is Nashville Predators GM David Poile. After rolling the dice on Peter Forsberg and seeing his team falter in the first round against San Jose, he's been given immediate orders to slash the payroll by current owner Craig Leipold, and faces an uncertain future if the sale of the team goes through, which often carries with it a thorough changeover in the front office.

His immediate focus, then, is to assemble the best team he can while taking roughly $7 million off last year's payroll figure of nearly $40 million. Oh, and he has to overcome the obstacle of signing players who might be concerned about where they'll be playing in future years. When Saruman got his orders to build an army "worthy of Mordor", he certainly didn't have to deal with austerity budgets and hesitant free agents. He just started ripping trees down and cranked out the troops. Unfortunately for Mr. Poile, no such options are available at this time...

So... how are those backward crossovers coming along?

So then, what to do? Yesterday's trade that sent Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell to Philadelphia for a first-round pick was a good start. Poile knew he wasn't going to keep those players (especially given the enormous, 6-year deals they received), so at least he got a high draft pick back in his hands. From there, he has to look at what he currently has in terms of player contracts for 2007-8:

Centers: Jason Arnott, David Legwand, Rich Peverly
Left Wing: Martin Erat
Right Wing: Steve Sullivan, J.P. Dumont, Alexander Radulov, Jordin Tootoo
Defence: Marek Zidlicky, Dan Hamhuis, Ryan Suter, Shea Weber
Goal: Tomas Vokoun, Chris Mason

That represents a current total of $28.8 million, and that's before even attempting to re-sign any restricted or unrestricted free agents like Paul Kariya, Greg Zanon, etc. The good news, at least, is that this is still the core of a very good NHL team. All of the above with the exception of Peverly and Tootoo would be considered above-average NHL players. The bad news, of course, is that there are about six spots to fill for a typical nightly lineup, and Poile needs to do it without creeping much above the CBA-dictated salary minimum of $33 million (per Spector).

Here's the plan, then - first and foremost, he'll have to trade Tomas Vokoun. As depressing as that might sound to Nashville fans, the Predators currently enjoy an embarassment of riches in goaltending, and Vokoun's $5.3 million salary this year is a luxury that Poile just can't afford any more. And if any team boasts a #2 that is ready to step up as a big-time starter, it's Nashville. Chris Mason's standout performance last season (when he finished second in save percentage behind Nicklas Backstrom) should make this pill a little easier to swallow.

So who might be in the market for a goaltender like Vokoun? Phoenix, for starters, but as shown with the Philly deal, I think Poile would rather send talent out of the Western Conference. That leaves Toronto as another likely spot, with the Preds possibly interested in a young center like Matt Stajan, or a defenseman like Hal Gill, along with a draft pick. Remember, this isn't about getting equal value in talent - it's about maximizing what Poile can get for the assets he's got, and the salary limitations he's under.

The other high-price player on the team that might warrant moving would be Marek Zidlicky, whose $3.2 million price tag looks mighty hefty after the significant dip his offensive production took last season. There are plenty of affordable options on the market this summer for veteran blueliners, so this might be an attractive way to shave $2 million off the payroll.

Among the current Predators that Poile has the opportunity to re-sign prior to free agency, the good news there is that many of these players should be able to be retained for modest figures, like Vernon Fiddler, Jerred Smithson (see update below), Scott Nichol, and Greg Zanon. If he could bring those four players back from something around $3.5 million total, and reduce the goaltending payroll by $3 million+ by moving Vokoun, he might actually leave himself room to pitch Paul Kariya an offer somewhere close to his current salary ($4.5 million) in order to stick with the team one more year. What is becoming apparent is that we certainly won't see Kariya and Vokoun together in Nashville this upcoming season. For one to stay, the other would certainly have to go.

If all this were to happen, local fans would still have plenty to be excited about for the upcoming season - you'd still have a deep set of forwards, plenty of young talent on the blue line, and a starting goaltender in net that had fans buzzing over his performance last winter. Emotions are running high these days in Nashville (and Hamilton), with each side either despairing or gloating about this team folding up shop and heading north sooner or later. In the meantime, all David Poile can do is work with the situation at hand, and for Predators fans, they should feel fortunate to have a steady hand at the helm during these stressful times.

UPDATE: The Tennessean reports that Jerred Smithson has re-signed with the Predators for two years, averaging $500K per season, up from $450K last year.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Set the Wayback Machine to January...

In light of the recent news that a local group is mobilizing to form a bid for the Nashville Predators in the event that Jim Balsillie's attempt fails (the letter of intent has a current expiration date of June 30), I was reminded of the scene just a few short months ago, when current owner Craig Leipold made an effort to sell minority ownership in the team to local business interests. When that didn't pan out, Leipold came out in May with the announcement that was selling the whole thing to Balsillie, and was clearly frustrated at not being able to make things work here in Music City.

Is it too late to close the door on that possibility, however? I think not.

Things have changed dramatically over the last few weeks, and I wonder if the stage might be set for just such a transaction now. If the local group is indeed able to muster around $100 million, perhaps a way forward would be to have that group work with Leipold on a shared ownership proposal, that would let Leipold cash in and recover his year-to-year financial losses, while taking advantage of the business support he asked for in January (but is now growing) to help establish long-term support for the team. Exact figures would have to be haggled out by the parties involved, but something like a 49% ownership stake for $100 million (leaving Leipold as the majority owner), or 33% for $60 million could restore Leipold and give the team a stronger foundation to compete from.

This isn't just about dollar signs and season tickets coming to Leipold's rescue, however. There would have to be some agreed-upon changes in the marketing side of things before local investors would make their commitment. When I moved here two years ago I was struck by both the lack of a strong advertising presence, and the difficulty in finding Preds games on TV. The billboards that were around town had a variety of players in what can only be described as passport-photo style poses, with phrases like "I live for speed", or "I live for the save." *YAWN* I'm surprised the Preds didn't get blamed for motorists falling asleep at the wheel looking at those things.

Anyways, the point is that for local owners to step in and help, they'll want some assurances that the off-ice business will change, and their input will be essential for that to succeed. This guy, for example, gets it. There is still opportunity to build a winning and profitable NHL franchise in Nashville, if the right parties can be brought together to make it happen.

Labels: commentary, economics, nashville predators

Monday, June 18, 2007

Nashville's Poile starts trimming

TSN is reporting that the Nashville Predators have traded the rights to captain Kimmo Timonen and winger Scott Hartnell, both upcoming free agents, to the Philadelphia Flyers for a first-round pick (the one they sent to Philly for renting Peter Forsberg this spring).

With the ownership picture still cloudy, GM David Poile apparently knew he wouldn't be able to re-sign either of these players, considered by most to be two of the most attractive free agents on the market. Instead, Poile gets a 1st-round draft pick back, and the Flyers lock up two quality players (both agreed to six-year deals worth a combined $10.5 million/year with Philly).

While of course, the initial reaction is that this is a sign of a "Major League"-style dismantling of the club in order to break the lease and move the team out of town, it is worth considering the possiblity that this is a case of Poile getting something out of a situation he wasn't going to successfully work through anyway. At this point, the Predators can cope with the loss of Timonen on the blue line, but at the age of 25, Hartnell is seen as a difference-making power forward just coming into his own in the NHL.

The question going forward, of course, is how Poile will fare with the rest of Nashville's free agent prospects (most notably Paul Kariya), and what he can pick up on the open market next month, given what is assuredly a paltry payroll figure by current owner Craig Leipold. Even if the Balsillie deal falls through, Leipold wants to get rid of the team, and a tried-and-true tactic for doing so is to dump high-dollar players.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators, philadelphia flyers, trades

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Send in the economists!

One of the frustrating aspects of this whole scenario with Jim Balsillie buying the Nashville Predators is that fundamentally this is a business story, and when sports columnists get involved, they quickly wade out of their depth and start spinning nonsense as if it were informed analysis.

Perhaps the most egregious example of that is the oft-repeated saying that by offering a purchase price far in excess of what Forbes magazine stated for the value of the team ($134 million almost a year ago), Balsillie must have some super-savvy motivation for doing so, specifically that by overspending for the Preds he somehow instantly inflates the franchise valuation for all the other owners in the league.

Having majored in Economics at Michigan, there is a specific term we scholars use for that line of reasoning:

Bu!!$hit

NHL franchises aren't commodities that can be freely substituted for one another. Each is a unique business, subject to local market conditions, an arena lease, a cost structure (based largely on current player contracts), etc. Balsillie paying $X for the Predators doesn't have any direct impact on the value of the Chicago Blackhawks, for example. In Nashville you have a unique collection of circumstances that make this team a juicier prospect than the guys on the sports desk realize.

This morning, the Tennessean posted an informative piece by a noted sports economist (John Vrooman of Vanderbilt University), delineating some of the reasons why the Preds may well be worth what Balsillie is offering - the major factors being the sweetheart lease (one of the most favorable in the NHL), and the option value of relocating to another market. If an owner were to move the Preds, that opportunity would be vastly greater than getting a simple expansion team. Rather than starting from scratch, you get to bring in one of the best young teams in the NHL (sound familiar, Quebec Nordiques/Colorado Avalanche fans).

This of course, explains why Balsillie is tying his purchase agreement to the relocation request with the NHL's Board of Governors. Part of the value he's paying for is in the right to relocate the team, and if he can't get that, the price he's willing to pay will drop somewhat.

This drama is sure to drag out for several more weeks and months, and while we wait to see what happens, be sure to question some of the "facts" of the case being tossed around within the sports pages. It's too bad the guys at CNBC like Darren Rovell haven't dug into this story yet...

Labels: commentary, economics, nashville predators

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Your morning Preds update

The news is coming fast & furious this morning on the Predators front, so here's your quick recap:

Jim Balsillie has rapidly escalated his relocation efforts by launching a season-ticket drive in Hamilton, alongside his agreement to move the team to Copps Coliseum in the event of Nashville's lease expiring. This has gone far beyond the mere setup of a contingency plan, and by launching this drive now, Balsillie clearly aims to undermine the effort in Nashville to support the team.

As Damien Cox notes, Balsillie's tactics are becoming increasingly more aggressive, and are basically setting up a legal battle with the NHL to assert his will to buy the team and move it wherever he likes. This ill-will has already bumped Balsillie off the NHL Board of Governors agenda for June 20, meaning the sale is extremely unlikely to close before the end of June.

Meanwhile, in Nashville, the prospect of this issue lingering into July and beyond has implications for the Predators' options in the free agent market. While there have numerous stories that GM David Poile is flying blind without a clear budget directive, the Nashville media needs to press harder on this point. Current owner Craig Leipold hasn't gone bankrupt, and should have a "business as usual" number for Poile to work with in the event that Balsillie's sale doesn't go through (which appears more likely by the day). With ticket price increases heading into the fall, and a groundswell in support from the community in an effort to save the team, there's no reason he should have to gut the roster at this point.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

My Letter To Gary

Dear Mr. Bettman,

When the announcement was made a few weeks ago that Jim Balsillie had entered into an agreement to purchase the Nashville Predators, speculation immediately began that a relocation to South Ontario would come in short order, and many hockey fans in the Nashville area jumped to the conclusion that we'd see a "Major League" scenario, whereby the new owner would deliberately undermine local support of the team so as to trigger the escape clause in the team's arena lease. As for myself, I decided to give Mr. Balsillie the benefit of the doubt - surely as a lifelong hockey fan and player, he wouldn't do such a thing after acquiring one of the best young teams in the game, with the Stanley Cup potentially within reach.

I've waited and watched over recent weeks, and was initially encouraged by Balsillie's promise to field a competitive team, giving GM David Poile an ample budget to put together the best team possible. His legal representative Richard Rodier assured any and all questioners that their courtship of the Copps Coliseum in Hamilton was merely a contingency plan, just in case the lease terminated prematurely. Frankly, I agree that such precautions are justified, as the question of whether Nashville hits the 14,000 paid attendance mark might not be answered until late next spring, leaving only a few months to relocate the team for 2008-9, so lining up Copps as a fallback now is entirely reasonable.

Today's news, however, makes abundantly clear that Mr. Balsillie is doing much more than arranging contingencies, and is instead actively working towards the relocation of the franchise. As reported on TSN.ca this evening, effective tomorrow he'll be accepting season-ticket deposits in Hamilton before he even owns an NHL team, let alone one that is available or approved to relocate. Is this the sort of owner you want in the NHL?

Mr. Bettman, this is clearly a case where "actions speak louder than words." Mr. Balsillie has said all the right things about honoring the Predators' lease with the city of Nashville and giving things an honest shot, but this latest development couldn't make it any clearer that he has absolutely no intention of keeping the team here, period. The local business community in Nashville has launched an effort to increase season ticket sales (found at www.ourteamnashville.com) without any input or comment from Mr. Balsillie, who states readily that the franchise is still Craig Leipold's, so he's not in the position to offer comment. Yet somehow he's in a position to start taking deposits in Hamilton for a team he doesn't own, and isn't free to move at this time? That's simply absurd.

As demonstrated in the recent rumors regarding expansion to Las Vegas and Kansas City, there are a number of interested, well-heeled parties that would love to join the ranks of NHL ownership. Admitting Mr. Balsillie into those ranks would only grant license to the most callous and deceitful practices of big-time sports ownership, and potentially undermine other NHL owners who wish to negotiate with their host cities for new arenas. Why would a city enter a long-term deal with an NHL owner if they have reason to fear that they'll act in the manner Mr. Balsillie is now?

I hope you and the Board of Governors take your time and do a thorough review of what Mr. Balsillie is proposing in terms of his purchase agreement and relocation request - and at the same time, remember that no matter what he and his representatives are saying, it's their actions that belie their real purpose.

Sincerely,
Dirk Hoag, aka The Forechecker
http://forechecker.blogspot.com

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

The NY Islanders roll out the welcome mat for bloggers

The NHL continues to be out in front of other pro sports leagues when it comes to dealing with new media. As seen over at Kukla's Korner, the New York Islanders have announced a "Blog Box", which appears to be a segregated version of the press box for selected bloggers to have the opportunity to cover Islanders games and practices:

From the Islanders' press release:

We're setting up a BLOG BOX in the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum – sort of like a press box, but away from the scribes and broadcasters because we know you want to cheer, shout, have a pretzel and enjoy the game experience on your own terms.
We will provide you with a media pass for a few games next season and a seat in the NYI BLOG BOX. You will also receive your own set of Game Notes when you enter the Coliseum Press Gate. All you have to do is bring your note pad and/or voice recorder and cheer as loudly as you want. After the game you attend, we will set up an area where you can toss a few questions at a coach or players, based on your requests and their availability.
The NYI BLOG BOX will be your open forum. From start to finish, you'll be in control. All we ask is for the chosen bloggers to act respectfully in the restricted media areas and keep all critiques in good taste.
Perhaps best of all, your Islanders blog will generate tons of hits because it will be highlighted and linked on newyorkislanders.com, one of the most popular websites in the National Hockey League.

Hmm... any chance of the Predators adopting such an enlightened policy? I'd certainly be interested. Anyways, we'll keep an eye on our Long Island colleagues this fall to see how this works out.

I like the idea of putting the bloggers in a separate area from the ink-stained wretches. Back in my "In the Crease" days I got to cover Games 1 & 2 of the 1998 Stanley Cup Finals from press row at Joe Louis Arena, and the fan in me had to be somewhat repressed during what may have been the single greatest game I've ever seen. In Game 2, the Red Wings twice came back from two-goal deficits to defeat the Washington Capitals 5-4 in overtime on a Kris Draper goal. That was also the game in which Esa Tikanen deked Chris Osgood out of the Detroit net but sent his backhander wide of the goal, which kept the Red Wings in the game. It was a tremendous night, but I had to keep my enthusiasm bottled up as part of the press corps.

Labels: commentary, hockey blogs, nashville predators, new york islanders

Data Quality Alert! Data Quality Alert!

There's a new piece over at Hockey Analytics which I heartily recommend to those interested in furthering the use of statistics related to NHL hockey. Alan Ryder pioneered the investigation of Shot Quality, which attempts to measure the characteristics of shots (distance, type, situation) to provide a more finely detailed view of offensive and defensive performance. I use a slightly simplified version of Alan's SQ techniques in my analysis here quite often, so when the article entitled "Product Recall Notice for Shot Quality" was posted, it definitely caught my eye. While it is obvious to anyone who has read through the NHL's play-by-play files that data quality problems exist, the presumption has been that these errors are basically random and cancel each other out over the course of 70,000+ shots in an NHL season.

By looking at arena-by-arena details, however, Alan has raised some pretty serious issues with the data, basically demonstrating that scorers in different venues seem to have systematic biases in how shots are recorded. Games played at Madison Square Garden, for example, consistenly have the most dangerous shots recorded in the logs, whereas scorers in Buffalo and Tampa tend towards the opposite view. The implications are that first of all, we always need to keep in mind the limitations of the data that the NHL presents to us, and secondly, look into possible means of correcting for such biases (by using something like the "park effect" that baseball stats junkies use). I guess I've got one more thing added to my summer to-do list...

Back in March I did something similar along the lines of the Giveaway/Takeaway stats, as well as how frequenty different scorers record Missed Shots vs. Saves. In my Give/Take and Missed Shot pieces, for example, I looked at how teams performed at home, how they performed on the road, and how visitors performed in their building, in order to isolate the effect of the official scorer. It was interesting to see that games in Chicago feature an absurdly low number of Giveaways and Takeaways by either team, while in Montreal or Edmonton the per-game figures are five times higher or more!

The potential for statistical analysis to extend our understanding of professional hockey remains largely untapped, but the quality of the data being recorded is a critical obstacle that needs to be overcome if we're to make the best progress we can. I'm not quite sure how best to pursue this issue with the NHL, but I'm open to suggestions.

Labels: shot quality, statistics

The Suggestion Box is Open...

Heading into the summer months, I would like to get your input as to the things you'd like to see more or less of here at On the Forecheck. I've got some plans for what's coming up, but I'd really enjoy getting the

My own personal list of to-do's for the site include:

Unrestricted Free Agency analysis - who are the best bargains and most overpriced UFA's
Recapping the playoff prediction tool I used this spring, and seeing how it might be improved
An analysis on how, in statistical terms, playoff hockey differs from the regular season
A look at how differing pre-NHL action (major junior vs. NCAA vs. Europe) translates into NHL success
Constant updates and thoughts on the ownership situation here in Nashville
A cosmetic redesign of the site, to enhance the navigation within and provide better access to past posts

So please provide your thoughts in the comments, and let me know where you'd like to see this research vessel headed.

Give me the right direction, and I'll boldly go where no hockey blog has gone before (pic included for my 5 year-old son who has gotten hooked on Star Trek lately).

Labels: hockey blogs

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

You think you're tough enough to handle EA's NHL 08?

We all know how tough hockey players are. Aaron Ward, for example, kept himself in the 2006 Stanley Cup Finals despite a concussion, knowing that heading to the dressing room would have meant sitting out the next game as well on doctor's orders. Then there's the legendary Bob Baun, who scored an overtime winner in the 1964 Stanley Cup Finals on a broken foot. Hockey players have a team-first ethic that stands out among professional athletes for the dedication that's demonstrated on a continuing basis.

Now it's time for this hockey blogger to rise to just such a challenge. It's been announced that Eric Staal has been named the cover boy for Electronic Art's NHL '08 video game. And yes, despite a recent diagnosis of osteoarthritis in my left index finger, I plan on numbing it up and hitting the digital ice...

Last year's Ovechkin cover:

And now, for 2008:

Labels: video games

Friday, June 08, 2007

The Mouth of Balsillie speaks to Nashville

Jim Balsillie's legal representative, Richard Rodier, discussed the impending sale of the Nashville Predators on 104.5's Sports Zone today.

Don't be fooled, he sounds a lot smoother on the radio...

When asked why Balsillie is purchasing the Preds, the answer was, "this is a tremendous team with a tremendous front office", focusing solely on the on-ice product, and not a word about the local market. One thing that was notable was Rodier's well-informed discussion of the Predators deep stock of talent, both at the NHL and minor-league level. When it comes to the on-ice aspects of this deal, you could hear the enthusiasm coming through around acquiring such a talented, young team. According to Rodier, Balsillie's silence up to this point is due to the constraints of a Non-Disclosure Agreement as part of the sale. As initially stated, it sounded like the Predators had requested that silence of Balsillie, but when pressed on the topic, Rodier characterized it more along the lines of usual procedure since Balsillie isn't the actual owner of the team yet.

The motivation for buying the Preds was constantly put in terms of the quality of the team and the front office that puts it together, and about the opportunity to win the Stanley Cup. When asked about relocation, Rodier quoted the well-worn dictums that before the team can move, the lease has to expire/lapse and the NHL Board of Governors needs to approve the move.

Rodier was hopeful that they could complete the transaction by the end of the month, in time for free agency, and was adamant (quite properly) that all decisions up until that happens remain with current owner Craig Leipold. While many fans would want some assurance that GM David Poile can spend some cash in the even that the sale doesn't close until sometime later on, Leipold would be foolish to take on that burden prior turning the keys over.

The bottom line, of course, is that there would be no reason for Rodier to twist his moustache and wring his hands while cackling, "yes, we're going to take your Predators to Hamilton and there's nothing you can do about it!" Rodier said all the right things as the representative of a prospective franchise owner, without making any strong commitments to the city.

As it stands, the burden is on the Nashville community to get out and support this team and prove it deserves NHL hockey. The nature of the arena lease means that there's not much margin for error in that regard, as opposed to teams like Chicago and St. Louis which have seen attendance plummet, but are in no danger of being moved. That makes the "Our Team" movement all the more critical.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Nashville stands up for "Our Team"

A diverse group of leaders in the Nashville community (the Our Team coalition) held a press conference this afternoon at the Sommet Center, emphasizing their support for NHL hockey and their commitment in raising attendance to keep the team here permanently. Since the May 24th announcement of the Predators' sale to Jim Balsillie, numerous initiatives have already gotten underway to mobilize support for the team. Their stated goal is to increase season ticket sales by 3,000, through a number of committees that are targeting various segments of the greater Nashville area. It's encouraging to see that their goal isn't just to squeak above the minimum level to maintain the arena lease, but are instead aiming to achieve a level that can consistently support a profitable NHL operation.

The group is led by prominent Music City businessman Ron Samuels, who was involved in the effort to bring both the Predators and the NFL's Titans to Nashville in the first place.

The team leadership, as presented on the Our Team website:

Business outreach, chaired by Rob McCabe of Pinnacle Financial Partners
Major corporations, chaired by Mike Edwards of First Tennessee
Small and medium sized businesses, chaired by Michael Carter of Athena Day Spa
Downtown businesses, chaired by Jack Cawthon of Jack’s BBQ
Hospitality/tourism industry, chaired by Jon Crisp from the Hilton Hotels and Ruble Sanderson
Grassroots, chaired by Mike Coyne of Smith Seckman & Reid, and Rick Regen
Communications and research, chaired by Brian Whitfield of the Sommet Group
Sponsors, chaired by Mark Ezell of Purity Dairies

Mike Coyne, a former Vanderbilt baseball player, through his individual efforts has already resulted in 28 season ticket sales, as recently highlighted in the Tennessean. Brian Whitfield leads the Sommet Group, which came on board as title sponsor of the Predators playoff run this year, and recently purchased naming rights to the Nashville Arena as well. All in all, this seems to be a deep and well-connected group that's going to work.

The local business community has consistently been pointed out as the major factor in what is seen as a disappointing level of support for hockey here in Nashville. Individual fans support the team quite strongly, but most of those tickets are sold in the more affordable, upper-bowl seats. When other cities boast corporate season ticket holders that write the check whether or not anyone actually fills the seats, it makes for a solid financial foundation to an NHL franchise. Since the NFL's Titans came to Nashville shortly after the Predators run began, that business support has declined, and this effort is designed to rekindle that excitement and ensure that NHL hockey remains a vital part of the Nashville sports & business scene.

Ron Samuels noted that the Our Team group hasn't spoken with Jim Balsillie yet, given the pending nature of the team sale, but that they are moving forward immediately, with the goal of selling half of the 3,000 tickets by the middle of July. So before all those Hamiltonians start envisioning the Predators skating in Copps Coliseum, they should know that Nashville's not going to let this team go without a good fight...

Labels: nashville predators

Balsillie's attorney to appear on Nashville radio today

Richard Rodier, the attorney representing Jim Balsillie will make an appearance on Nashville radio this afternoon, to hopefully shed some light on the prospects for NHL hockey here in Middle Tennessee. He'll be on 104.5's Sports Zone at 5:05 Central time (streaming broadcast available via the link). There will also be a press conference at 3:30 (also carried on 104.5) featuring a local group of business leaders expressing their support of the team.

To say the least, mixed signals are in the air. While there have been plenty of assertions from Rodier and NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman that as long as there's a lease in place, the Predators are staying in Nashville, the activity around setting up a lease in Hamilton*, combined with renewed governmental interest in the NHL's franchise relocation policy seems to indicate that there's much more going on than Balsillie merely lining up options in the event that the opt-out clause becomes available after next season. Here's a particularly chilling quote from the Hamilton Spectator:

The word around city hall is Balsillie told Mayor Fred Eisenberger he believes he has a 50/50 chance of bringing the team to Copps, despite expected vetoes from NHL brass and compensation claims from the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres for violating their territorial rights.

I don't expect much to get cleared up during this afternoon's interview, but this will be Nashville's first chance to get some basic questions answered. In particular, George Plaster and the gang need to press on this issue of Copps Colesium and the related facilities that Balsillie is taking such an interest in. If this Spectator article is even half-correct, Balsillie appears to prepping Hamilton for NHL hockey, and if that's the case, we're in for a heck of a fight here in Nashville...

*Found via this morning's Kukla's Korner

Labels: nashville predators

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Balsillie to open the wallet in Nashville

Hot of the presses of the Tennessean comes a report that soon-to-be Nashville Predators owner Jim Balsillie "wants to take a run at the Stanley Cup in the coming season and that Balsillie plans to give general manager David Poile the payroll to do so."

This comes shortly after this morning's paper featured an article by beat writer John Glennon portraying the front office as basically adrift heading into the July free agency period, since Poile wasn't sure how much of a payroll he could plan on when resigning current Preds or shopping around for difference-makers. The sale of the team is hoped to conclude by the end of this month, but things are never certain in such matters, and the lack of clear direction was becoming a distraction to Poile and his team.

The following quote from Balsillie's attorney Richard Rodier is about as direct a statement as you'll ever hear:

"We want to give David Poile a very generous budget to build the team however he wants, having regard only to the league salary cap and not to any budget restraints imposed by ownership,’’ Rodier said. "This is about winning, buying a team that has a shot at winning the Cup in our view.’’

This is heartening news for Nashville Predators fans, who have basically waited through several days of silence from Balsillie's camp since the deal with Craig Leipold was announced. Expect the Balsilliemeter to be updated accordingly later today.

If this is indeed true, and Balsillie makes a serious run at keeping this team competitive, I would expect local support to easily surpass the 14,000 average paid attendance figure and keep the team here for at least several more years.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Slingin' pucks to make a few bucks

Once again, the NHL seems to be pushing ahead in the business of digital media much more boldly than its professional peers. This morning's LA Times has an opinion piece heaping praise on the NHL's new partnership with Sling Media, the folks behind the Slingbox you hear hyped so much by Jim Rome. The basic idea is that you'll be able to have NHL games sent from your TV to your internet connection (say while you're travling, or *gasp* at work), and be able to select clips for upload and distribution to friends through Sling Media's website. I could definitely see doing this while visiting the in-laws in Indiana, and certainly anyone who travels much would be able to catch their team's games while on the road.

Understand, the savvy part about moves like this isn't so much about buckets of money that are going to pile up in the NHL coffers. The fact of the matter is that with enough effort, the young tech-savvy generation can do much of this stuff already. The NHL is merely riding that wave, building business relationships and a fan-friendly reputation along the way.

Labels: commentary, economics

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Coming soon to a city near you... NHL Hockey!

The fate of the Nashville Predators might well be impacted by two new developments which have been reported today.

First, Canada's Competition Bureau is looking into the legality of the NHL's franchise relocation policy, which sets up the 50-mile zone-of-control around current teams, and presents a huge cost barrier to Jim Balsillie's presumed desire to move the Predators to Hamilton, which would require a costly payout to the Toronto Maple Leafs for taking up residence in their backyward (the fee for the Ducks to do the same to the L.A. Kings was $50 million a decade ago, so you can imagine what 10 years and the world's hottest hockey market would do to that figure).

Secondly, the word "expansion" is spreading like wildfire, with the current speculation being that Las Vegas and Kansas City might be added to the NHL as expansion cities very soon, with Jerry Bruckheimer called the front-runner for ownership in Sin City. All I know is, they should have one whale of a time naming that team. The Las Vegas Craps? The Nevada Blackjacks? Beats the heck outta me...

So what does this mean for the Preds chances of remaining in Nashville? The bottom line for the next year or so remains hitting the 14,000 average paid attendance figure, which would close the loophole for voiding the current lease at the Sommet Center. The investigation into NHL relocation policy seems to be about giving Balsillie options, which any prudent businessman wants to have. Opening up Hamilton as a possible relocation site brings another bidder to the auction when Balsillie lays out a long-term plan for the team. As regards expansion, I'd be surprised to see the NHL give up on Nashville at a time when they're looking to move into an oasis in the desert like Vegas, or an already-crowded sports town that has lost NHL hockey once already in Kansas City.

For all the ridicule the NHL is getting over abysmal nation-wide TV ratings, the bread-and-butter part of the business, gate receipts, seems to be doing quite well. Attendance has been strong, the salary cap appears primed to jump by as much as 5% next year based on increased league revenue, and the San Jose Sharks (among others including Nashville) are raising ticket prices for next year. The new CBA appears to be working well for the players and owners alike. That's bringing plenty of interested groups to the party, hoping to get in on a piece of the action.

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Back to the Bad Old Days?

After basking in the glow of the high-octane "New NHL" for a couple seasons, the grousing has begun once again, declaring that defense is regaining the upper hand, and another set of adjustments needs to be made to the NHL rulebook to keep fans entertained. James Mirtle recently posted a piece claiming that removing the two-line offside pass has somehow been a "contributing factor in the decline in scoring", and there was some discussion recently about expanding the size of nets to produce more goals. Others want to see 4-on-4 play become the standard, just as it is in regular season overtime. But is it really true that we've already returned to the "clutch & grab" 1990's? While there seems to be a cottage industry of commentators putting forth their list of ways to improve the on-ice NHL product, all too often those suggestions are made based on subjective assumptions about how the game is playing out, rather than the cold hard facts.

Sure enough, if you look only at goals for per game, it looks like the league has taken a dip. But Mirtle was on the right track back in March when he opined that fewer penalty calls were the likely culprit in the scoring decline. The table below outlines average goals-for per game across various situations, broken down by season:

The basic story here is that 5-4 and 5-3 scoring is down, but all three of the major scoring situations (5-5, 5-4, 5-3) are still well above pre-lockout levels, and the 5-5 figure is actually up about 5% over last season. While I don't have ready access to power-play time per game, I do have the numbers for the average number of power play opportunities per team across the last five years:

Remember how people were complaining during the 2005-6 season about the endless parade to the penalty box, and how all those power plays were disrupting the flow of the game? Sure enough, as players adjusted to the new era, we saw far fewer PP chances per game this year (a decline of about 17%), but that 4.85 figure still tops anything from 2002-2004. Combine this information with the previous table, and what you get is that 5-on-5 play is leading to more goals being scored, despite making up a smaller portion of the typical NHL game - the adjustments are indeed working! The only reason that fact didn't jump out last year was because of the abnormally high level of penalties taking away much of that 5-on-5 ice time.

Basically, as players have adapted to the new rules, they are avoiding some penalty calls, but still can't get away with what they could in years past. The meat of the game, the 5-on-5 action, is indeed resulting in greater goal-scoring. So don't worry about tweaking the rule book for now, just sit back and enjoy.

All data from NHL.com team-by-team statistics.

Labels: commentary, offense, statistics, trend

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Stanley Cup Finals: A few thoughts

One intermission appearance by Don Cherry won't do anything to build a nation-wide American TV audience for hockey. Versus and NBC need to figure out a way to get Cherry on a more regular basis, like a "Coach's Corner" on their Monday night game, for example.
While it's common practice to describe Ottawa as the skating team and Anaheim as the more physical squad, the bottom line is that you can't lay the body on the puck carrier as often as Anaheim does without skating your butt off in hot pursuit. The tempo at which the Ducks play can be very impressive.
No, Daniel Alfredsson didn't kick that puck in during Game Three. He was in the midst of making a hockey stop with a defenseman all over him, leaving little room to make such a play.
I don't agree with those who think kicking the puck in should be legal - can you imagine the chaos on a goal-mouth scramble? You'd have defensemen going down to block, and forwards kicking those skate blades around... sounds like a sure-fire recipe for another Clint Malarchuk episode.
It's hard to believe Chris Pronger only got a one-game suspension for the elbow he delivered to Dean McAmmond's head, only a couple weeks after a similar suspension for his hit on Tomas Holmstrom. Surely there should be some sort of graduation in penalty - if you get suspended for a game early in the playoffs and repeat the offense, tack an extra game on to the second suspension at least. The current "make it up as we go along" style of punishment doesn't leave anybody happy.
It's good to see the NHLPA leadership acting in a deliberate, professional manner and are talking to all the right people about how they should go about recruiting a new executive director.
As has been noted by many others, Ottawa's handling of the national anthems has been simply amazing. They give genuine, gracious applause to the Star Spangled Banner, and belt out O Canada with simple, straightforward enthusiasm. I have never seen the likes of this on U.S. soil, period.
You have to give credit where it's due - the in-game crew working the games on NBC is top-notch, better than any group put together by ESPN or Fox in years past. The intermissions don't work as well, however, because Bill Clement simply isn't the studio-host type who can orchestrate a lively discussion, and frame questions in the right manner for ex-jocks like Brett Hull and Ray Ferraro to respond. His analysis as a color man is usually quite good, but for some reason Versus and NBC keep pounding that square peg into a round hole.
One of my favorite moments from Game Three was when Ottawa's Jason Spezza had to wear the #44 of teammate Patrick Eaves for a short while, since his own #19 was torn by Sammy Pahlsson. Stuff like that happens all the time to us beer-leaguers, but I've never seen that before at the NHL level. Next thing you know, Daniel Alfredsson is going to show up in Anaheim for Game Five with two strips of tape on his back for #11...
Along those same lines, you have to feel for Eaves in that spot. Everybody has their role on a given team, but "Clothes Hanger" won't exactly ring the cash register at contract time.

Please pardon the lack of posts in recent days - work's quite busy, but the pace will pick up again shortly.

Labels: commentary, stanley cup

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Friday, June 29, 2007

Free Agency Mania Starts Sunday

Canadian Baloney, starring James Mirtle

Thursday, June 28, 2007

Moose leads 2007 class into Hall of Fame

Balls Out, Bags In?

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Hottest and Coldest Shooters

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Updating the Balsilliemeter

Friday, June 22, 2007

I like it, I love it...

Allow me to pat myself on the back...

Thursday, June 21, 2007

The Great One sounds off on the Predators

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Saruman didn't have to worry about free agency

Set the Wayback Machine to January...

Monday, June 18, 2007

Nashville's Poile starts trimming

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Send in the economists!

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Your morning Preds update

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

My Letter To Gary

The NY Islanders roll out the welcome mat for bloggers

Data Quality Alert! Data Quality Alert!

The Suggestion Box is Open...

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

You think you're tough enough to handle EA's NHL 08?

Friday, June 08, 2007

The Mouth of Balsillie speaks to Nashville

Nashville stands up for "Our Team"

Balsillie's attorney to appear on Nashville radio today

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Balsillie to open the wallet in Nashville

Slingin' pucks to make a few bucks

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Coming soon to a city near you... NHL Hockey!

Back to the Bad Old Days?

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Stanley Cup Finals: A few thoughts