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On the Forecheck: May 2007 - NHL Stats, Analysis, and Opinion

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

NHLPA spying details come out

Details are coming out behind the NHLPA leadership's email spying scandal, which has resulted in the dismissal of executive director Ted Saskin. Over the course of fifteen months, NHLPA email accounts, outside email accounts, and other private information were accessed by Saskin and senior business director Ken Kim in an effort to monitor a group of player reps and NHLPA employees who had questioned the circumstances of Saskin's hiring in the wake of the 2004-5 NHL lockout.

Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of this report isn't just the length of time and deliberate intent by Saskin and Kim, but apparently the cooperation in their activities by some who should know better. I'll get to that in a minute, but first, a few of the major details as outlined over at sportsbusinessjournal.com (heads-up from Kukla's Korner):

Saskin and Kim began monitoring e-mails in September 2005, soon after Saskin was appointed executive director and Trent Klatt, then an executive board member, began asking questions about Saskin’s hiring. Saskin and Kim’s efforts extended into January 2007, and 45 NHL players’ and 21 NHLPA employees’ e-mails were accessed.

Kim would routinely print out e-mails, place them in a manila envelope and put the envelopes on Saskin’s desk in the NHLPA’s Toronto headquarters, sources said. “Sometimes he would bring it directly to Ted’s house,” one source said.

Saskin and Kim not only read messages sent over players’ and employees’ NHLPA.com accounts but also accessed the personal, nonunion account of Klatt.

Saskin and Kim gained access not only to personal e-mails but also to records of how players voted on the collective-bargaining agreement that ended the 2004-05 NHL lockout, getting the information through the NHLPA’s IT department.

“In the report, Ken Kim talked about when the Hewlett-Packard scandal came out, they stopped,” a source said. “They were worried about it.” But a few months later they started accessing the e-mails again, after Saskin learned that a group of players, led by Chelios, was trying to get signatures on a resolution to investigate Saskin’s hiring, as well as Bob Goodenow’s firing and the negotiation of the CBA.

There are so many bombshells here it's hard to tell where to start - obviously monitoring the player reps email activities within their NHLPA accounts is suspect, but accessing Trent Klatt's outside, personal email clearly crosses the line. Note also how Saskin and Kim were aware of the snooping scandal that brought down Hewlett-Packard chairwoman Patricia Dunn - they halted their activities for a while, but resumed when the heat started rising again.

What interests me here is how the NHLPA's IT group seems to have helped this "Big Brother" program along. According to the report Kim used Klatt's NHLPA password to access the outside personal account - presumably Kim got that password through shoddy security policies, or someone in IT provided it to him (unless of course it was "pass", in which case, shame on you Trent Klatt). Then there's the point about providing the details of what was supposedly a "secret ballot" to end the 2004-5 lockout and ratify the new CBA. It would appear that there's at least one bad apple within the NHLPA IT department...

When not blogging here as the Forechecker, my mild-mannered alter ego works in IT. I sure as heck know I'm not going to look favorably on any resumes coming across my desk that list network security for the NHLPA as working experience!

Ultimately, the NHLPA will get the leadership it demands and deserves - instead of merely turning to the next guy in line when Bob Goodenow resigned, they should have engaged in a professional search for a qualified, able executive. The only good to come out of all this is for the players to learn this lesson, and apply it usefully in the weeks and months ahead as they search for a new executive director.

Then again, if the attached story is true, I say bring in the toughest SOB you can and bring some new ownership to the Windy City:

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Monday, May 28, 2007

The Final Battle Begins...

After each playoff round I've provided summaries for how well the predictive tool I'm using is performing, but in order to get my Stanley Cup prediction out here in time for the puck to drop in Game One, I'm going to save my conference final summary for later. Suffice it to say I had picked Buffalo in what was basically a pick 'em type of series (one that the Senators surprisingly dominated), and the Red Wings to skate past the Ducks in seven, so obviously both of those went awry. Overall in these playoffs I'm 9-5 in picking series winners (or as Earl Sleek enjoys pointing out, 9-2 when the Ducks aren't involved).

While the mainstream US media is basically ignoring this championship series, any hockey fan should be looking forward to it - we have two very strong squads that were among the dominant teams in their conference throughout the season. The Ducks got off to a roaring start before a bizarre injury stretch brought them back to the pack, and the Senators got off to a horrible October in the win/loss column despite playing solid hockey, although eventually the bounces went their way and the wins started piling up. Both teams have dispatched other strong contendors along the way in these playoffs, with the Senators getting past Pittsburgh, New Jersey and Buffalo to make the SCF, whereas the Ducks pushed through against some of the toughest defensive teams in the league in Minnesota, Vancouver, and Detroit. Whether you enjoy great goaltending, superstar forwards, or unselfish team play, there is something here in this series for just about any hockey fan. It's too bad the MSM can't figure out how to tell that story.

So let's get right down to it and see what my analysis says about this Stanley Cup Final:

How the Ducks can score: The Ducks generate a high number of shots from the key 10-19 foot range, and making good on those chances will be pivotal to their success against Ottawa. They tend not to generate many goals directly from mid- to long-range shots, and Ray Emery is apparently handling those threats well already (note the Sht % Factor from 30 feet out).



How the Senators can score: The Senators offense is a bit more diverse than Anaheim's, as evidenced by the higher Expected Goals figures across almost all ranges. While Ducks goaltending has been superb during this playoff, it will be tested constantly by a team that fires effectively whether from in close or further out. The biggest warning sign for Anaheim is the high number of shots yielded in the 10-19 foot range, combined with Ottawa's superior shooting percentage in that range. In practical terms that means the Ducks need to avoid senseless penalties that put dangerous snipers out there for Ottawa in prime scoring position.



Summary: The Senators come out of a fairly healthy favorite here, with a 2.64 Expected Goals Per Game figure compared to 1.97 for the Ducks. That's one of the larger predicted gaps seen across this entire postseason, and is the largest gap predicted since the opening round.

Outside The Numbers: Both teams here are relatively healthy (nobody's completely staffed and fresh at this time of year), so recent performance should be a decent indicator for how these teams are doing. Other than the Ducks ability to outperform these expectations so far, there's nothing obvious to throw things in one direction or the other.

Prediction: I'll stick with what the numbers are telling me, and take Ottawa in 6 games.

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Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals are excluded.


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Friday, May 25, 2007

Introducing the Balsilliemeter

With the emotional rush of the past couple days having passed, it's time to take a bit of a sober view towards the future of hockey here in Nashville. While our good friends north of the border are already in full-gloat over the prospect of luring the Predators to southern Ontario, I'd like to put aside the speculation and consider how Jim Balsillie might actually work out as an NHL owner, particularly in respect to the fans in Nashville.

On the one hand, he seems to be exactly the kind of owner the NHL would desire - young, loaded with cash generated as a captain of modern industry, a recreational hockey player who has long wanted to own a team, Balsillie has the potential to help move the league forward in a manner completely opposite to the dead weight that is Chicago Blackhawks owner Bill Wirtz.

On the other hand, Balsillie clearly desires to move a team to either Hamilton or the Kitchener-Waterloo region, as was the case with his aborted takeover of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Given Craig Leipold's declared financial losses over the years, it's easy to conclude that the only reason Balsillie is paying $220 million for an unprofitable team is for the opportunity to move it to a community that's willing to pay any price to see pro hockey. Add in the tremendous appreciation in the Canadian dollar over the last 5 years, and those hockey-mad fans actually have some genuine purchasing power to throw around these days.

Those points, of course, lead some to think that Balsillie is likely to pull a Major League job on Nashville, putting an inferior product on the ice in order to kill attendance and trigger the buyout option in the stadium lease that allows him to skip town in the summer of 2008 for a mere $18 million. The timing of this announcment, just as the marketing push for season tickets was kicking off, appears particularly ill-timed.

In order to help those fans in Nashville who don't quite know what to make of the situation, and provide some insight from other concerned fans around the league who hate to see teams moved (thanks to the many kind emails and comments which have come in the past two days), I'm introducing the Balsilliemeter as a regular feature on this blog. Through my advanced and highly scientific modeling techniques, I've come up with a highly accurate barometer to reflect the attitude of the typical Nashville Predators fan towards their soon-to-be owner.



We're starting Mr. Balsillie's rating here at around 4.5 on a scale of 0 (OMG, are those moving trucks?) to 10 (he cuts a duet with Dolly Parton and greets people with "How y'all are, eh?"). The raw starting point was a middling 5.0, with a slight tick downward based on the lack of substantive comment from Balsillie regarding the upcoming purchase. If he was sold on keeping the team in Nashville, he'd certainly have something positive to say to prospective season ticket purchasers. The Balsilliemeter will be added to the sidebar for a quick and easy read on the anxiety level here in Predators country.

I'll keep a watch on activity in the weeks and months ahead, in terms of business dealings, team management, and of course the handling of free agency in a few week's time. In the short term, the key to keeping the team in Nashville is bumping the per-game paid attendance up above 14,000, which is less than 200 higher than last year's final figure. One season ticket holder I talked to yesterday said he felt like he'd been punched in the gut, but is going to maintain his commitment and try and bring more folks out to the rink this season. I know I'm going to try and do my part as well. Put simply, the 14,000 mark is easily obtainable next season - let's see just how hard Mr. Balsillie tries to make that happen.

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Thursday, May 24, 2007

I turn my back for just a few days...

Well, I'm back at the helm after a few days at a conference in Las Vegas, but don't even know where to begin. Obviously I need to recap my picks from the conference finals (both duds) and look ahead to the Stanley Cup Finals, but when I flipped the radio on during my drive to work and heard about the impending sale of the Nashville Predators to Jim Balsillie, well, that was quite a kick in the nuts. This guy has no intention of keeping the team in Nashville, and money to burn through buyout fees or costly lawsuits to get his way.

This just underscores how disappointing the Preds first-round playoff exit was. A couple more home games, and they would have surpassed the 14,000 average paid attendance mark, and kept the lease buyout option off the table. Now, we're left with a deathwatch as a new owner takes the reins, undoubtedly makes some personnel changes that leave a diminished product on the ice, and loads up the moving trucks next summer for whatever market he can claim north of the border. Regardless of what the Canadian experts say, the hockey fan base is significant and growing here in Middle Tennessee, and today marks the beginning of a long, sad struggle. I was excited when I moved here 1.5 years ago to come back to a city with an NHL team, and I'm not at all happy about the prospect of losing that so quickly.

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Sunday, May 20, 2007

Heading off the grid

Mrs. Forechecker & I are getting out of town for a few days (Vegas, baby!), so don't expect any updates until later in the week.

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Buffalo fans, before you do it...

My heart goes out to those rabid Buffalo Sabres fans whose hearts have been broken yet again - the President's Trophy was a nice prize, but all of you expected another couple weeks of hockey. Now, I'm sure many Sabres fans are going through a range of emotions in reaction to Daniel Alfredsson's OT winner that lifted the Senators into their first modern Stanley Cup Final, but before you take that ultimate step, please watch this:

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Friday, May 18, 2007

Welcome to the Sommet Center

There's encouraging news out of Nashville this morning, as the Sommet Group has agreed to a long-term arena naming rights deal with the Nashville Predators. The erstwhile Gaylord Entertainment Center/Nashville Arena will now be called the "Sommet Center".


This spring, the Sommet Group participated as a title sponsor of the Predators (brief) playoff run, and this commitment should help the Predators build their long term base in the Music City. All along, owner Craig Liepold has discussed the need to build stronger ties in the business community, and this deal represents two significant steps forward in that regard. First, he's landed a local firm for the naming rights (the Sommet Group is based in nearby Franklin), as opposed to a large national firm that's just looking for a billboard to put their name on.

Secondly, however, the Sommet Group represents a good partner for the Predators - they are in the business of outsourcing back-office processes (i.e. Human Resources, Payroll, IT), and as such, have ties to a vast number of small- to mid-size businesses, the types of companies that might be good candidates to buy a few tickets each here or there, but are very difficult to market to. It's one thing to lobby a big firm like Nissan to buy some season tickets, but going door-to-door to the gazillion smaller firms is laborious and unprofitable. Now, the Predators can hook up with the Sommet Group to offer promotions and incentives through their network and hopefully build a stronger corporate support base.

So three cheers for the Sommet Center (and by the way, it's pronounced so-may)!

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Thursday, May 17, 2007

Blogroll notes

Thanks to a suggestion from loyal reader Rajeev, I've started looking around for some good hockey strategy and tactics sites to add to the blogroll, under the "Hockey Links" section roughly halfway down the sidebar. Today I've got two links debuting, with more to follow over the coming weeks:

HockeyPlayer.com is geared towards developing players, and boasts articles on topics like driving the offensive attack from behind the net, and the details of a left-wing lock. It can be a nice resource for those looking for some further information behind some of the common terms heard during NHL broadcasts.

The other site is one I definitely plan on digging into quite a bit - Lifetime Hockey is focused on the adult recreational player (being a 15-year beer leaguer, that's me), and has some nice articles on shooting, equipment selection, and an animated guide to the Basic Plays of Hockey.

As I find more sites of this kind I'll add them to the blogroll. If you have any suggestions, feel free to leave them in the comments.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Those wacky media types...

This has got to be one of the funniest things I've seen all season. Tonight, the Red Wings burst out with a huge 5-0 win in Anaheim to take a 2-1 series lead. Dominik Hasek turned aside 29 shots (some very dangerous) for the shutout, and Tomas Holmstrom scored twice and added an assist after a nasty double-team hit from behind that should bring at least one suspension from the NHL office. Nick Lidstrom played half the game spectacularly and added two assists, and multiple other players chipped in for a landslide Detroit victory.

But the three stars of the game, as chosen by the media?
1. Tomas Holmstrom, DET
2. Valterri Filppula (1goal, 1 assist), DET
3. Todd Marchant???, ANA

Let's see, Marchant was a -1, and posted no shots in 16:36 of ice time. Maybe the fact that he didn't take a penalty made him stand out relative to his teammates. How anybody can look at that game and give the 3rd star to any Duck, especially one who had no impact on the game, is an absolute joke.

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Monday, May 14, 2007

Quick Draw Artists

There's nothing like the pivotal moments late in an NHL game, where each rush up ice is met with hope and dread, depending on the rooting interest of the fans watching. Sometimes, the deciding strike comes swiftly after a faceoff win, and what I'd like to look at today is which players help produce or prevent such chances.

Buffalo's second goal in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals was a perfect example - a clean win in the offensive zone by Jason Pominville allowed Toni Lydman to pick up the puck and skate right in for a wrister that scored to tie the game. The winning goal in Game Two for the Senators also showed what can happen. Jason Spezza drew a puck right back to Joseph Corvo, whose quick shot put the Buffalo Sabres into an imposing 2-0 hole as the series heads to Ottawa. On average, a quick shot after the faceoff occured 10.2% of the time during the regular season (see criteria at bottom).



Check out Joe Corvo's double-OT winner from Game Two of the ECF

With goal-scoring on the decline during these playoffs, offensive opportunities come at a premium, and as the pressure mounts in the third period and overtime of these critical games, faceoffs take on even greater importance. So which players generated the most shots from offensive-zone draws, and which specialists allow the fewest when squaring off in their end of the ice? Let's take a look and the overall best and worst, with players still in the playoffs highlighted:


Top Shot Generators in the Offensive Zone:
Tomas Plekanec, Montreal - 18.4%
Brett McLean, Colorado - 18.2%
Kris Draper, Detroit - 18.2%
Ian Laperriere, Colorado - 17.9%
Jamaal Mayers, St. Louis - 17.7%
Mike Peca, Toronto - 17.5%
Dean McAmmond, Ottawa - 17.1%
Mark Mowers, Boston - 17.0%
Ryan Johnson, St. Louis 16.8%
Blair Betts, New York Rangers - 16.6%

Interestingly, Plekanec is a repeat winner in this category, which I would think a smart agent would bring up as he becomes a restricted free agent this summer. On the opposite end of this list we have those players generating the least such shots:


Bottom 10 Shot Generators in the Offensive Zone:
Joe Pavelski, San Jose - 3.5%

Slava Kozlov, Atlanta - 3.6%
Patrick Sharp, Chicago - 4.9%
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh - 4.9%
Brendan Shanahan, New York Rangers - 5.0%

Patrick Marleau, San Jose - 5.5%
Teemu Selanne, Anaheim - 5.5%
Todd Marchant, Anaheim - 5.7%
Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay - 6.0%
Jarome Iginla, Calgary - 6.2%

See how many big offensive names show up here? Perhaps they are thinking of different options when taking offensive-zone draws than simply winning it back to the D for a clean shot. On the defensive side of the ice, our best and worst performers in terms of preventing opposition shots are as follows:

Top 10 Shot Preventers in the Defensive Zone:
Michael Zigomanis, Phoenix - 3.6%
Patrick Sharp, Chicago - 5.4%
Brooks Laich, Washington - 5.4%
Patrick Marleau, San Jose - 5.6%
Tim Taylor, Tampa Bay - 5.6%
Marcel Goc, San Jose - 6.0%
Brian Sutherby, Washington - 6.2%
Jamie Lundmark, Los Angeles - 6.3%
Jim Slater, Atlanta - 6.5%
Scott Nichol, Nashville - 6.8%

Sharp and Marleau don't seem to either generate many shots, or give up many in their end. Apparently tying things up and not allowing a quick play to develop is part of their faceoff strategy.


Bottom 10 Shot Preventers in the Defensive Zone:
Michael Nylander, New York Rangers - 21.9%
John Pohl, Toronto - 18.3%
Travis Zajac, New Jersey - 17.3%
Petr Cajanek, St. Louis - 16.9%
Robert Lang, Detroit - 16.2%
Jason Arnott, Nashville - 15.9%
Viktor Kozlov, New York Islanders - 15.6%
Eric Staal, Carolina - 15.5%
Keith Tkachuk, Atlanta - 15.0%
Matt Stajan, Toronto - 15.0%

If it's late in the game, you sure don't want to see these guys lining up for a faceoff in your own end!


The criteria used are as follows: 43,852 non-neutral zone faceoffs from the 2006-7 Regular Season were broken down according to the participants, and analyzed as to whether a Shot, Goal, Blocked Shot or Missed Shot took place within 5 seconds, without any other intervening events. Eligible players had a minimum of 100 draws in the offensive or defensive zone, respectively.

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Thursday, May 10, 2007

So who plays Claude Lemieux and Kris Draper?

Looking at these Eastern Conference Finals as an interested outsider, I'm left wondering if we're seeing the genesis of the greatest NHL rivalry since the Red Wings/Avalanche glory days of the 1990's. The recipe breaks down as follows:

1. You've got a playoff rematch, featuring teams with loads of young talent and great expectations.
2. There's bad blood aplenty, after the Chris Neil hit on Chris Drury, and the subsequent brawl.
3. Each team has a veteran coach who's not shy about using their public forum to badger the other team.
4. Rabid hockey fans in each city who want the Stanley Cup, but for the next two weeks only want to see their team defeat their hated rival.
5. The games themselves are a joy to watch, with plenty of up-and-down action, hitting, individual skill and tremendous goaltending.

If only the NHL could get this on as many TV sets as possible - this series looks to be a classic.

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Red Wings vs. Ducks, WCF Preview

The battle for the Clarence Campbell Bowl has come down to the top two seeds in the West, Detroit and Anaheim. I've cranked out the numbers, so let's see who will make it to the Stanley Cup Finals...

How the Red Wings can score: The story with Detroit, as always, is a reliable shooting advantage - the projection is for them to outshoot the Ducks by roughly seven shots per game. Unlike many other matchups, however, these extra shots are coming from close range, medium range, and long range; they're not just taking harmless tosses at the net and hoping for the best. They'll need every shot they get, as J.S. Giguere has been his usual solid self during these playoffs, with a .952 save percentage entering the series, alongside his net-mate Ilja Bryzgalov's .929 mark.

How the Ducks can score: The projections here show that Anaheim's shooting percentage from various ranges is very close to Detroit's, and unless that changes, overcoming the gap in total number of shots would seem to be a daunting task. Note the "Sht % Factor" row in Anaheim's chart, and you'll see that Dominik Hasek has been clamping down on close and midrange shots to a slightly greater degree than even Anaheim's goaltending. Combine that with the limited number of shots that Detroit's allowing (see the "Shots Factor" row), and the Ducks will clearly need to maximize the opportunities that do come their way.

Summary: Toss these two teams together, and you get a gap of 0.40 Goals Per Game in favor of Detroit (2.08 - 1.68).

Outside The Numbers: There are two major factors at play here - the most obvious being the recent injury knocking Red Wings defenseman Mathieu Schneider out of the playoffs. Presumably that's going to impact Detroit's performance at both ends of the ice. The other factor is that Anaheim has outperformed these predictions in each of the first two rounds - against Minnesota in the first, my offensive assessment was on the mark, but their defense shut down the Wild more than expected, and against Vancouver in the conference semifinal, they outscored projections, and clamped down on the Canucks offense at the same time. Whether that's due to their numbers being hampered by that unusual stretch when Giguere, Pronger, and Beauchemin were injured at the same time and they went into a temporary tailspin, or whether the Ducks' playing style just adapts better to playoff hockey, I'm not sure. But I'm likely to give them more credit here than this gap would normally indicate.



Prediction: Even with Schneider out, Detroit's blueline out-Norris's Anaheim's with seven trophies to two. I think Chelios plays a solid series picking up some marginal playing time, the goaltenders at both ends play very well, but Detroit's power play makes the difference. Red Wings in 7 games.
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Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals are excluded.

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Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Sabres vs. Senators, ECF Preview

The Buffalo vs. Ottawa pairing for the Eastern Conference Finals should result in a spectacular display of "new NHL" hockey, pitting two talented, offensively-oriented teams in a battle for the Prince of Wales Trophy. My predictive method of matching offense against defense and focusing on recent performance has proven pretty useful so far - so what does it say about this series?

How the Sabres can score: Buffalo appears to be all about the execution - their shooting percentage from the prime scoring ranges (10-19 and 20-29 feet) is the best among the four remaining teams, and that ability to hit your spot under pressure (recall Chris Drury's 0:07 game-tying goal against the Rangers) will be critical to the Sabre's success in this series. They'll need that composure to beat Ray Emery in goal, who has been outstanding for Ottawa so far in the playoffs.

How the Senators can score: Ottawa can be expected to pop off about four more shots per game than Buffalo, but almost all of that gap comes from 40 feet out, which shouldn't have much effect on goal-scoring. Their execution from close range is quite good, although not up to Buffalo's levels.


Summary: This one is ridiculously close - when I first ran these numbers, I had to recheck them, as the Expected Goals Per Game figures came within 0.0001 of each other (Ottawa's 2.6677 to Buffalo's 2.6676). Basically, the extra shots that Ottawa will take from long range are counterbalanced by Buffalo's superior shooting from in close. However you look at it, it's an evenly matched battle.

Outside The Numbers: The intensity level in this series should be incredible - both teams have something to prove in terms of playoff achievement, and oh yeah, there's that nasty little Chris Neil/Chris Drury incident of a few months ago to raise tempers as well.

Prediction: Home ice advantage is likely to play a factor here, so I'm going with Buffalo in 7 games.

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Table Key:
Shots For = average of shots per game by that team, from the range specified.
Shots Factor = a factor representing how many shots the opposing defense yields in that range (1.24 = 24% more than average, 0.89 = 11% less than average).
Exp. Shots = "Shots For" times "Shots Factor", how many shots are expected to occur within each range.
Sht % = The fraction of shots from within that range result in goals.
Sht % Factor = a measure reflecting how the opposing goaltender handles shots from a given range (0.74 = 26% fewer goals than average, 1.53 = 53% more than average)
Exp. Sht % = "Sht %" times "Sht % Factor", the expected shooting percentage for this matchup.
Exp. Goals = "Exp. Shots" times "Exp. Sht %", the number of goals per game expected from each range.
Values indicative of significantly higher goal-scoring are shaded green, values for lower goal-scoring shaded pink.
All figures represent exponential moving averages, giving greater weight to recent performance. Empty-net goals are excluded.

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Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Round Two Review For The West

With Detroit and Anaheim pushing their way into the Western Conference Final, it's time to recap the predictions made here a couple weeks back, to see how well they performed:

Detroit/San Jose: I picked Detroit (albeit in 7 games), based on an expected advantage of 6-7 shots per game, and strong goaltending from Dominik Hasek. That's pretty close to how things actually turned out, as the Red Wings outshot the Sharks by 7.7 shots per contest and Hasek (despite an exciting trip or two behind the net) generally outplayed Nabokov.


All the highlights from Detroit's series clinching win Monday night.

Anaheim/Vancouver: This was my lone miss of the second round, as I had called for a Canucks victory, since the Ducks weren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard as of late and faced the outstanding Roberto Luongo in net. While Luongo held up his end of the bargain, the Vancouver defense (ravaged by injury) gave up too many shots, particularly close-range shots, to consistently keep the Ducks down. Although the actual per-game numbers look quite high compared to expectations, remember that due to overtimes, the teams played about 20% more minutes than you'd usually have across five games, so that accounts for a good portion of the difference. The real deciding factor in this series, however, is the shooting percentages for Vancouver - did their collective sticks go cold, or did J.S. Giguerre deserve as much credit as is heaped on Luongo? I guess we'll see based on how Giguerre handles the Red Wings in the conference finals...



Here's how the Ducks finished off Vancouver in Game Five.



So far, this method has resulted in a 9-3 predictive record (6-2 in the 1st round, 3-1 in the second). Check back tomorrow for the Conference Final predictions...

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Monday, May 07, 2007

Eastern Conference Finals are set...

Now that Buffalo and Ottawa have made it to the Eastern Conference Finals, I wanted to check in how my predictive modeling performed compared to actual results. Obviously, it wasn't too far off the mark, as I did pick both the Sabres and Senators to make it through.

Just to recap, the basic idea behind this model is that I try to map out each team's offense against the opposing defense, projecting shots/game from various distances, shooting percentages, and thereby goals per game. The two key concepts are, first, an interaction between one team's offense and the other's defense (both in terms of shots allowed and goaltending), and secondly, trying to reflect recent performance by the use of exponential moving averages to represent the per-game values*.

Bufallo/New York: I was hardly alone in picking the Sabres here, as they were the top team in the regular season, although the Rangers did put up a good fight, and if they had successfully handled the final minute of Game Five, who knows what might have happened as a result. The story here appears to be one of Buffalo getting too many good scoring opportunities for Henrik Lundqvist to stop - from medium and close range, shot totals for Buffalo were well above expectations, and while New York held the overall shooting edge, as expected that numerical advantage was mostly due to outside shots, which are less dangerous.


Here's a look at Jochen Hecht's series-clinching goal for Buffalo.


New Jersey/Ottawa: I called this one in six games for the Senators, based on an impression from the numbers that goaltending was not going to be a significant edge for New Jersey (as most assumed), and a likely advantage for Ottawa in terms of both overall shot totals, as well as shots from within 29 feet. Pretty much all of that played to form, and while the level of goal-scoring was higher than predicted, the expected gap between the teams (0.47 goals per game in favor of Ottawa) was right on the money. One interesting point to be seen here is that while the Senators generated lots of close-in shots, they scored only 0.4 goals per game from the 10-19 foot range, which is far-and-away the most common scoring area. Instead, they consistently scored from all over the place.



Here's how the Sens got it done in Game Five.

So far, I'd say this method of modeling playoff matchups is working fairly well - while the exact numbers are often off the mark, the differences between teams are showing up quite clearly, and seem to be useful in predicting which team is likely to win. I'll take a look at the Anaheim/Minnesota matchup tomorrow (that's one that didn't work out as expected), and Detroit/San Jose whenever that finishes up. Since the Eastern Conference Finals won't start until Thursday (updated), I'll wait to do a preview for a couple more days.

*As always, I exclude empty-net goals from this analysis, so take that into account. Basically, empty-net goals have a negligible impact on the outcome of a game, since the team that scores one is already winning with little time left.

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Friday, May 04, 2007

Trotz hangs on in Nashville

It looks like Nashville Predators GM David Poile has exercised his option to keep the current coaching staff in place, despite a disappointing first-round playoff exit:



All in all, this is in keeping with the steady, long-term thinking that has led to incremental progress in each of the Predators' seasons under Poile and Trotz. The mandate for next season should be quite clear - playoff success, and a Central Division title. There will no doubt be significant roster changes for next year, but Trotz has shown an ability to build a competitive team with middling talent before - and he still has plenty of talent to work with, whether or not star free agents like Paul Kariya and Kimmo Timonen move on.

While many local fans wanted Trotz's head for this latest playoff stumble, in reality, there are very few tenable options out there in the coaching ranks if a change was made. While Terry Crisp (who provides color commentary on Preds broadcasts) would be a popular choice, it's been a long age since he stepped behind an NHL bench, and there's little indication that he'd like to do so again...

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Saving Little Johnny Edmonton

When it comes to the economic costs and benefits of subsidizing new arenas for essentially private operations run by billionaires, for a bunch of millionaires, the common tax-paying citizen gets bombarded with data that is incomplete at best, dishonest at worst, and almost always skewed towards one conlusion or the other.

Perhaps the best summation of the issue I've seen yet is to be found at Black Dog Hates Skunks*, regarding the proposal for a new downtown stadium for the Edmonton Oilers. It's also the funniest read you'll have all week...

*Found via Battle of Alberta

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Entering the Arena

Many thanks to Leafer over at the NHL Arena, for featuring an interview with me in their blog section this morning. Just be warned, if I get enough of my morning coffee, it might be a dangerous read for you...

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Thursday, May 03, 2007

Who said the refs are blind?

Normally I wouldn't stray into NBA waters within this forum, but there's been quite a controversy this week regarding a study that alleges a trend where white referees call fouls at a greater rate on black players than on white players. The clamoring across sports radio has been loud and (predictably) ill-informed, and the fact that the NBA came out with their own study refuting the claims only serves to muddy the waters further. I wanted to point out a couple of points here that I heard several times, in an effort to stem the tide of statistical ignorance.




1. Yesterday on Dan Patrick's ESPN show Charles Barkley chimed in with the stunning insight that there are more black players than white in the NBA, so of course there will be more fouls called on them. This argument in particular I heard repeated on two different local sports radio talk shows as well, so it's worth stating - the researchers looked at the rate at which fouls were called in terms of minutes played, so the overall level of different players has been corrected for. According to the Times article linked to above, they also tried to correct for the position of the player, veteran/All Star status, home/road tendencies, etc.

2. Most commentators aren't getting that the level of incremental fouls given is incredibly small. I really don't think it's worth getting worked up about. From the study:

"Across all of these specifications, we find that black players
receive around 0.12- 0.21 more fouls per 48 minutes played (relative to
white players) when the number of white referees officiating a game
increases from zero to three (an increase of 2½-4½%)."

So, if you've got a team with five black players against five white players for the entire 48 minutes of a game, and an all-white officiating crew, these findings would indicate that the black team would expect 1 incremental foul call per game than if they had all-black officials. I'm sorry, but that's a pretty darn small effect, and if anything, seems to be a vindication of the NBA's diverse culture working together.

After all, the real lesson here is that subtle preferences can underlie what seem to objective decisions made every day, and that applies not just to the NBA, but to just about every facet of modern life. From the final paragraph of the study:

"Thus, while the external validity of these results remains an
open question, they are at least suggestive that implicit biases may play an
important role in shaping our evaluation of others, particularly in split-second
high-pressure decisions. That is, while these results may be of interest to
those intrigued by the sporting context, we emphasize them instead as
potentially suggestive of similar forces operating in a range of other contexts
involving rapid subjective assessments."

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Tuesday, May 01, 2007

In the course of 82 games, something's gotta go wrong

Here they are... the wild... the wacky... the first installment of NHL bloopers from the News Room. Ah, there's nothing like groin shots and pratfalls to put a smile on your face!

Prepping the Rangers for Game Four

It's not reasonable to expect that the Rangers have much hope of topping the President's Trophy-winning Buffalo Sabres tonight, let alone in the course of their seven-game series. Perhaps then, coach Tom Renney had better make sure that he's ultimately unreasonable in his pregame speech tonight...

(more goofing around with News Room feeds)

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Sid Crosby Nominated for Hart Trophy

This is a test of how the News Room feed fits into the blog layout...

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