Moved

Friday, March 30, 2007

"Two minutes by yourself, and you feel shame, you know.."

Take a hike over to the Globe & Mail and read Alan Ryder's latest article on the cost of penalties... it's well worth Two Minutes.

Labels: penalty, statistics

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Predzone forums shut down?

Does anyone out there know what has happened to the Predzone forums? I was just checking in, and can't get past the (disabled) login screen, which bears the message, "You can thank the Tennessean for this."

Any clues?

UPDATE 3/30/2007: It looks like the website is back up, no word on what happened, however.
UPDATE 4/2/2007: Check the Predzone Podcast for the story of what happened last week. I'm not quite sure what to make of the whole mess, but hopefully it doesn't set the "internet sites with press access" issue back here in Nashville. Mike paints a picture of being disrespected by the Tennessean as well as the Predators organization, but in doing so throws around a good deal of mud himself.

Labels: nashville predators

Good seeds and Bad seeds...

Now is the time of year when we start to see articles describing how winning the President's Trophy really isn't that big a deal, and that teams like Buffalo, Nashville, Detroit and Anaheim are better off taking things easy and making sure they're ready for the playoffs. After all, as quoted from this morning's Tennessean, "only six Presidents' Trophy winners have gone on to win the Stanley Cup in the 20 years the league has given out the award."

Wow, that sounds horrible! All that hard effort over 82 games, and chances are the President's Trophy winner won't even win the Cup!

Think for a minute, however, and you realize that 6 out of 20 really isn't that bad - 30%, in fact. When you consider that the Stanley Cup Playoff is a 16-team tournament, saying that one team in particular has a 30% shot at winning makes them a pretty strong favorite.

I went back through the 1994-2006 playoffs to see how well teams of different seeds have done in the playoffs. Before 1994 you had two rounds of divisional playoffs before the conference final, so you really didn't have 1-8 seeding on each side as you do in today's NHL. Over that time, the President's Trophy winner has won, on average, 2.33 playoff series per season. Comparatively, the top seed in the opposite conference and both #2 seeds averaged only 1.08 series victories. Below is the complete table showing average series victories per seed:

Seed	Avg. Series Wins
Pres. Trophy	2.33
#1 Opp.	1.08
#2	1.08
#3	1.29
#4	1.25
#5	0.29
#6	0.67
#7	0.83
#8	0.38

There are some interesting fluctuations in there - for starters, the fact that the worst performing seed is the 5th spot (out of 24 #5 seeds over the last 12 seasons, they've been eliminated in the first round 20 times!). My guess there is that often the #4 seed is a better team than #3 or possibly #2, since division winners automatically get the higher slots, and thus the #5 is facing tougher opposition. The other particularly odd bit is how the #1 Opp. seed (top seed in the opposite conference from the President's Trophy winner) and the #2 seeds both fare worse than the #3 and #4 seeds. Your guess is as good as mine as to why that is the case. Regardless, the dominance of President's Trophy winners is clear.

Even just during the twelve years I'm looking at here, the President's Trophy winner won the Stanley Cup four times (33%), followed by #2 seeds with three (12.5%). That's not very close, considering there are two #2 seeds each year, and only one President's Trophy team. The #1 seed from the opposite conference has won once (2004's Tampa Bay Lightning), and two #3 seeds have won (Detroit in 1997 and 1998). New Jersey is the only team to win from the #4 and #5 seeds, in 2000 and 1995 respectively.

Perhaps a team that fights hard to the finish and wins the President's Trophy has the momentum and mindset to achieve great things in the postseason, and teams that let up may not find it so easy to "flip the switch" and start winning again. Regardless, it seems here that compiling the best regular season record might be worth something after all. Shocking, ain't it?

Labels: NHL Standings, stanley cup, statistics

Go For the Predz-idents Trophy

Today's Tennessean has a boilerplate article about how winning the President's Trophy isn't a big deal, and that "only six Presidents' Trophy winners have gone on to win the Stanley Cup in the 20 years the league has given out the award." Setting aside the notion that it's a bad idea for teams to poo-poo the importance of the regular season (shall I just save my ticket-purchasing money for the playoffs?), earning home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs is indeed worth something.

There are sixteen teams in each playoff run, and if regular season standings really don't mean anything, then each team has a 6.25% chance of winning the Cup. If 6 President's Trophy winners have won in 20 years, however, that suggests a 30% chance for the best regular season team.

I don't know about you, but a 30% shot sounds better than 6.25% any day.

Labels: nashville predators, presidents trophy, stanley cup

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Hooray for PythagenPuck

Back in November, around the quarter-mark of the NHL regular season, I wrote a piece looking at Expected Winning Percentages for each team, based on their Goals For/Goals Against ratio, using the PythagenPuck method as outlined in Alan Ryder's "Win Probabilities" article over at Hockey Analytics. Since we're approaching the end of the campaign, I thought it worth revisiting the two assertions I made back in November - that the Ottawa Senators were capable of getting back into the playoff race, and that the Boston Bruins were in danger of a freefall to the bottom of the standings.

Just to review, the basic idea behind win probability models like PythagenPuck is that over the course of a season, the Goals For and Goals Against numbers can be used to derive a team's winning percentage, within a a surprisingly narrow margin of error. For instance, if you only had GF/GA information, you could make a very good stab at projecting what the standings would look like. The wildcard that remains outside PythagenPuck's reach is the Shootout - we don't have a good way to predict how often teams will go to a shootout, nor how well they'll do once they get there. Keep that in mind, as I've removed SO Win points from the analysis below.

The left-hand side of this table shows what the data looked like in November - looking at Ottawa as an example, it said that based on Goals For and Against, Ottawa's winning percentage would be expected to be .550, but in fact they stood at only .389 at the time (and media outlets were rife with "fire the coach!" and "break up the team!" articles). In Boston, the Bruins were clinging around playoff contention with a .469 winning percentage, while their GF/GA ratio would have predicted a .349 mark. Those gaps between Expected and Actual figures were the largest from a positive and negative perspective, and my suggestion at the time was that those gaps would close, and given the choice between GF/GA and Winning Percentage, I expected both team's Actual Winning Percentage to make the move. Sure enough, as we see in the right side of the table, the Senators have soared back over .500 and into solid playoff position in the East (although, to be noted, their GF/GA has improved as well), and the Bruins have tailed off. Their Gap value is still the highest in the league, but it has shrunk by roughly 25% from the November mark.

It was nice to see that PythagenPuck was that useful back in November, but I wanted to try and get a handle on just how useful it was, so I decided to run some correlation numbers. Comparing the Actual Winning Percentage in November to the Actual results since then, I came up with a value of 0.483, a pretty strong correlation. This makes sense, as most teams doing well (or poorly) early on will continue doing so, albeit with some significant exceptions. Then I ran the figures comparing Expected Win Percentage from November, to the Expected Win Percentage since that time, and came up with an even stronger number: 0.603. In other words, by taking our snapshot at the quarter-pole of the season, a team's Goals For/Against numbers were more likely to hold true for the rest of the year than their Winning Percentage. Then lastly I ran the numbers comparing the Expected Win Percentage from November, against the Actual Winning Percentages since that time. That number came in at 0.594, another strong figure, and significantly stronger than the Actual/Actual correlation of 0.483.

That's an interesting result, because what it basically says is that to get an idea of where teams will finish in the standings, you were better off looking at the GF and GA columns in the paper than actual Win/Loss results that time! While I happened to pick the quarter-pole to run that analysis, I'm curious to run a time-series of such correlations to see at what point the GF/GA data gives us a comfortably acceptable picture of a team's ability. Is that mark 10 games, 20 games, 30 games? I don't know quite yet, but the answer could help determine whether teams that made major moves after early disappointments like Philadelphia, Columbus and Chicago really had enough information to act on, or whether other teams like St. Louis should perhaps have acted earlier if they hoped to actually turn this season's fortunes around.

Labels: NHL Standings, ottawa senators, statistics

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

The Need for Speed

Hurry (and I do mean hurry) over to A Theory of Ice, for a wonderfully written piece "On Speed." Here's a snippet:

‘Hockey sense’ is actually a bit of a spooky phenomenon, like ESP, and indeed the players who have it give the eerie impression that they see the future. They are where they need to be, simply and unfailingly, even before the rest of the team realizes that someone needs to be there. They pass to the place where there teammate is going to be in a few moments, not to where he is. And a fast enough mind can, sometimes, compensate for a slow body, because a quick enough read of the play can see the game geometrically and position accordingly, rather than trying to chase it down. Forwards, maybe, can afford to have bodies faster than their minds, but a good defenseman and especially a good goalie is defined more by the ability to think faster than the opposition, rather than move faster.

Sounds like a perfect description of Larry Murphy to me...

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Where are my tickets, Mr. Holland?

While working on a piece about the 10th anniversary of the great Colorado/Detroit game at Joe Louis Arena, I caught myself reflecting on some of the great games I've had the fortune of seeing in Detroit during the 1990's, through a variety of means. Then another thing came to mind - when I'm in attendance, the Red Wings win. I'm on a huge personal winning streak here, so perhaps the Red Wings front office would want to bolster their chances during the upcoming playoffs and make sure I'm in the house for those critical games? I can make myself available...

June 4, 1995: Detroit takes Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals from Chicago, 3-2 (although the Hawks put one of the goalpost as the final horn sounds). Wow, has it been that long since the Blackhawks achieved anything? Ticket courtesy of a college buddy who had a spare.

October 13, 1995: The Wings pummel the Edmonton Oilers in their home opener, 9-0. After the painful Finals sweep against New Jersey the previous summer, there was a great deal of talk that Steve Yzerman was going to be traded for (gasp!) Alexei Yashin. During the pregame intros, Yzerman gets his usual thunderous ovation, while coach & GM Scotty Bowman is booed mercilessly. How times change... (ticket from a coworker)

January 17, 1996: Steve Yzerman scores his 500th goal against Patrick Roy as the Red Wings beat the Avalanche. My department at work won a company contest, and we got treated to dinner in Greektown and tickets to the game.

February 19th, 1997: The Red Wings beat Calgary in Yzerman's 1000th career NHL game (scored tickets from a different coworker).

March 26, 1997 (Avs/Red Wings): More about that in the next post (press pass via In The Crease). Wings won 6-5 in overtime.

Games 3 & 4, 1997 Stanley Cup Finals: Landing these tickets is a story worth telling - back then, when corporations were just making their push onto the World Wide Web, Duracell Batteries posted a contest on their website to win tickets to Games 3 & 4 of the Cup Finals that season. They included a little Java-based game on their web page, with a shooter trying to beat a computer goalie, and whoever posted the best score over the course of a month would win the prize (tickets to both games for two, airfare, hotel, and $500 spending cash). While checking this out from work, I found the game challenging, and the top scores at the time were somewhere around 80-100 points. At the time I was a computer programmer, and I found (through total luck) that when I had my terminal emulator running (my programming session on the main computer), it slowed the Duracell game to a crawl, making it a cinch to rack up a score ten times higher than what anyone else could do. The creator of the game emailed me to see how I did it, but honored the results and I won the prize. Since I won this a few months before the playoffs started, there was no way to know where Game 3 & 4 would be, so my (future) wife and I mused about possible destinations (New York, Miami, Denver, etc.). When it turned out that those games would be in Detroit, and I lived just 40 minutes down the road in Ann Arbor, the generous Duracell folks swapped the airfare and hotel for an extra $1000 cash, which actually helped me pay school bills and graduate from Michigan the next summer. See, web surfing at work can be productive! Needless to say, the Wings won both games, and I got to see Stevie Y raise the Cup in Detroit for the first time in 42 years.

Games 1 & 2, 1998 Stanley Cup Finals: Game 1 was a 2-1 Detroit win, and Game 2 was probably the greatest game I've ever seen, as the Red Wings came back twice from two-goal deficits to defeat the Caps 5-4 in overtime and set the stage for a sweep in Washington (press pass via In The Crease).

March 30, 2006: After living in Indiana from 1998-2005, I move to Nashville for a new job and am invited to a suite for a Red Wings/Predators clash. Sporting my #2 Fetisov jersey, I enjoy a 4-2 win by the Detroiters.

See, the streak is still alive, Mr. Holland! 10-0 in your last ten games when I'm in the building. The important thing to remember is that I didn't have to pay a dime for any of these games, and if you want to avoid another first-round playoff exit, I recommend you foot the bill this time around as well.

Labels: detroit red wings

Set the Wayback Machine for 1997...

There will be numerous posts, no doubt, celebrating the 10th anniversary of perhaps the greatest regular-season NHL game in recent memory, the duel between the Colorado Avalanche and Detroit Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena that featured Darren McCarty's pummeling of Claude Lemieux, among other epic battles. Rather than comment on the game from today's perspective, I thought I'd provide a contemporary look, as in those early days of the World Wide Web I was a columnist for a hockey website called In The Crease (now only found in the Internet Archives), and due to the hard work of our NHL editor, we had worked up enough credibility in those days that I got my first press pass to cover this highly anticipated matchup (and to think how slowly the issue of press access for bloggers has come along since then). By that point I had been writing columns online about the Red Wings for a couple years, having joined ITC after participating in innumerable newsgroup threads, and answering an ad looking for amateur hockey columnists. ITC embodied the "by the fan, for the fan" ethic that permeates today's blogosphere, and scoring a press pass was something that had never even occured to me -but when the phone call came, I jumped at the opportunity.

Here, then, is the piece I wrote that night from press row (sitting next to Phil Myre, then a pro scout with Ottawa) - much of it during the action, on a laptop borrowed from work for the night. Some of the writing is pretty hackneyed, but instead of taking further time to edit it, I wanted to let the emotions of the night come through and sent it in for posting right away. I hope you enjoy it...

From In The Crease #18, as stored online at the Internet Archive:

Claude

Hockeytown was in a fervor as the Avalanche rolled in on the 26th, marking the first time that the infamous Claude Lemieux played in Detroit since "The Hit" on Kris Draper in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. A local sports talk radio station had been promoting "Screw Lemieux Month", somewhat to the dismay of the Red Wings organization, and fans all over were anticipating a delicious dose of justice to be dished out by the likes of Joey Kocur, Brendan Shanahan, or Darren McCarty. Signs such as "Clobber Claude", "Are You Ready To Rumble?", and another with a gravestone already made up for "Superpest" dotted the arena.

The warm-ups before the game were thankfully without incident, unlike the times that Lemieux has fired things up by shooting a final puck into the opponents net' before heading off the ice. McCarty added to his fan base as he stuck around for a few extra moments to toss some pucks to a grateful group just across the glass, but other than that things seemed quiet. Perhaps, a little too quiet...

"LET SLIP THE DOGS OF WAR..."

Down Goes ROY... DOWN GOES ROY!!!

Sure enough, that pre-game lull was much like the momentary calm you get right before the big storm that brings down the trees and knocks your power out for a week (as Detroiters have been all-too familiar with lately). Despite the fact that Kocur was scratched from the game, the fans demanded vengeance, and when Lemieux stepped on the ice he was welcomed with a shower of boos. Another interesting lineup change by Scotty Bowman had Sergei Fedorov starting on defense alongside Larry Murphy. Fedorov had played a handful of games from the blue line last season, and Bowman looked to #91 to spark the offensive transition.

Lemieux's first shift lasted roughly 10 seconds, just long enough for the fans to recognize him out there and get the chants going. The Red Wings sound man, ever topical, played "Somebody's Gonna Hurt Someone". Fedorov got the crowd out of their seats with a dashing end to end rush on an early power play, but failed to score on a wrister from the low right slot - clearly Patrick Roy was up for this game. Valeri Kamensky drew first blood with a goal straight off a face-off less than four minutes in, but frankly nobody at Joe Louis Arena seemed to notice. Somehow, the score of the game just wasn't very important at the time. Early fights involving Jamie Pushor and Kirk Maltby got the crowd excited, despite less than glowing results, particularly for Pushor in his match with Avalanche tough-guy Brent Severyn. After some great pressure by the Wings in the Avalanche zone, however, Shanny brought the crowd to its feet with a thundering hit on Lemieux in the corner, and kept on the Colorado arch-villain all the way up the ice. The crowd smelled blood.

They got it at 18:22 of the first period, when Darren McCarty cemented his place in Red Wings history by getting his mitts on Lemieux and pummeling him in front of the Red Wings bench. Igor Larionov started it all by wrestling Peter Forsberg down to the ice, and players started to pair off. McCarty came right up to Lemieux and started throwing haymakers, and Patrick Roy darted out of his crease to join the fray, but Shanahan literally flew in to take him out, then squared off with defenseman Adam Foote. Lemieux turtled as only "The Fraud" can, but McCarty got in a few good left hands as the main event shifted to center ice, where 5'7" Mike Vernon tangled with 6'0" Patrick Roy, and did his best Joey Kocur imitation before hauling the much larger Roy down to the ice. I've rarely heard the Joe Louis Arena crowd any louder than when McCarty skated off, to a roaring chorus of approval from the Detroit faithful. Lemieux, on the other hand, hobbled to the dressing room bloodied and battered, but would return to the game, unlike Kris Draper who of course spent weeks in the hospital last spring. Colorado recieved a four-minute power play out of the whole mess, but fifteen seconds after the ensuing face-off the Avalanche struck back, as Adam Deadmarsh went after Vladimir Konstantinov. The Russian defenseman is every bit as effective an agitator as Lemieux, but unlike his counterpart he stood up to the challenge well despite losing the fight. This left the teams with four skaters per side for the duration of the first period, which ended with a 1-0 Avalanche lead, but left the Red Wings franchise stronger and prouder than they have been in years.

The second period started off with Foote and Shanahan renewing acquaintances, with Shanny getting the best of the affair. Clearly the intermission hadn't calmed the nerves of either squad. During the break, one NHL team official overheard Avalanche GM Pierre LaCroix calling NHL Vice-President of Operations Brian Burke, complaining that McCarty should have been given a game misconduct for jumping Lemieux. It was surprising that McCarty only got a double-roughing penalty for his part in the fracas, but final word on the incident will certainly come from the league office. Meanwhile the hockey game managed to continue. Fedorov tied the game at 1 with a stick-side wrister after a long break through center ice, taking advantage of the open space resulting from the 4-on-4. Kamensky scored a few moments later to put the 'Lanche on top once again, and after that the Wings got stuck with killing another penalty, this time after a scrap between Martin Lapointe and Mike Keane. Lapointe paid the team back for taking the penalty at 3:08 of the 2nd, finishing off a 2-on-1 with Slava Kozlov by beating Roy from down low and tying the game at 2-2. It actually looked like a free-wheeling, up-and-down game for a few moments, but then a double-bill got underway, with Tomas Holmstrom matching up with Keane (and fighting gamely from his back despite getting hammered), and Aaron Ward taking on Brent Severyn, with Ward and Severyn receiving game misconducts in addition to the fighting majors. After having called 18 penalties in the first period, the refs had decided that the teams should start concentrating on the hockey.

The defending champs pulled ahead once more, this time on a nifty deke from Rene Corbet at the end of a 2-on-1 that Fedorov misplayed badly. Deadmarsh hadn't had enough when he fought Konstantinov evidently, as he dropped the gloves with Darren McCarty, but "Mac" handled himself well and dispatched Deadmarsh with a quick and effective series of blows. Yet again, the Wings ended up on the short end of things when the penalties were sorted out, but the penalty killers did their job, holding the Avalanche to one goal on seven opportunities on the night. Pushor erased the memory of his earlier fight when he took on 6'6" Uwe Krupp and earned a hard-fought draw. Pushor has had some rough outings this year, but you have to admire the young guy's work ethic and willingness to step in against anybody. Deadmarsh, a Red Wing killer all season, put Colorado up by 2 goals at the end of a sloppy play that dislodged the net, and resulted from a clearing attempt by Vernon bouncing off of his own defenseman who was tangled up with Deadmarsh. Colorado had assumed a 4-2 advantage, and throughout the arena the frustration was starting to grow. Nick Lidstrom brought the Wings back within a goal with a blast from high in the face-off circle off a face-off that beat Roy cleanly, making it 4-3 to end the second. Once again, Detroit ended the period losing on the scoreboard, but they withstood every challenge the 'Lanche threw at them. All that was left was to close the deal.

FIGHT TO THE FINISH

Things didn't exactly start off well in the third period. The earlier fight may have taken something out of Vernon, as he was beaten easily on a low wrister by Kamensky to complete the hat trick, and suddenly the Wings were in a two-goal hole again. The fact that Lemieux got an assist on the play only added to the sting felt by the home crowd, which grew eerily silent at a time when they should have instead been supporting their team. Detroit went on the power play at 6:26 of the third, and got several good shots at Roy, but the Colorado goaltender was at his best and seemed on top of everything. Shortly after the power play expired, however, Fedorov launched a blast from the blue line on a foiled Colorado clearing attempt, and Martin Lapointe swiped the rebound into an open net from Roy's stick side to bring the fans back to life. With 11:33 to go, the Wings had crawled back to within one. While announcer Bud Lynch was still calling the goal, Shanahan snuck from behind the Colorado net and tucked a backhander behind Roy's left skate to tie the game at 5-5. Said Shanahan after the game, "I was just trying to pass it in front... I actually saw the fans behind the net pointing at the puck, and then I looked up and saw the red light go on." Hockeytown was rocking once again...

The decibel levels climbed. The chant of "let's go Red Wings... let's go Red Wings..." rang for the rafters for the first time all evening. Suddenly the night wasn't about revenge or fights, but simple victory that hung in the balance between two proud hockey clubs. Lemieux came down and blasted a shot from the right slot, but Vernon stood his ground. Shanahan fired back off a Larionov setup, but Roy turned that aside. The two opponents who had traded punches at center ice so long ago now challenged each other from opposite ends of the rink, making one big save after another. Despite some dangerous opportunities in the final minutes by Detroit, the game headed to overtime.

The game was capped off, of course, by the man who did it all that night - Darren McCarty. A beautiful break down the ice ended with a perfect pass from Shanahan landing on McCarty's stick as he came down the slot and fired a shot past a helpless Patrick Roy. The Detroit bench emptied and joined the crowd in celebrating a great come -from-behind victory over the team that knocked the Wings out last year. All in all, it was a true hero's night for McCarty - he made good with the fans before the game, beat the snot out of the bad guy, and scored the game winner in overtime. While the league office will have something to say about the flagrant knee that he delivered to Claude Lemieux's head in front of the Detroit bench, McCarty earned himself a place in the hearts of many a Red Wings fan with his gargantuan effort.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

The areas for debate surrounding this whole rivalry are rich and varied, but I'll try to touch on a few key points to consider. Many people decry this sort of game as bringing out the worst aspects of hockey, promoting violence in an already too-violent world. To this I would say that Lemieux had crossed the boundaries of respect and honest, straight-up competition that binds all professional hockey players together. Ice hockey, particularly at this elite level, is the fastest contact sport around, and opportunities to cause serious bodily injury to another player occur on virtually every shift. Only mutual respect for each other and the game itself keeps down the number of heinous injuries such as Draper's, despite whatever penalties are handed down by the NHL. McCarty acted to punish Lemieux for a dirty shot against his teammate, and did so by coming right after him, and staying in his face until the job was done - no hit and run here. After the game I asked Kris Draper about getting Lemieux back via a face-to-face confrontation, as opposed to a high stick, or shot from behind. His response was quite different from the taunting and boasting that Lemieux engaged in last year:

"I didn't want to see anything bad happen to any of the guys out there. I wouldn't wish what happened to me upon anybody... It was old-time hockey out there, a fair fight. That was the fortunate thing."

Scotty Bowman raised the issue that if Lemieux had apologized initially for "The Hit", maybe things would not have gotten so extreme, and there is some reason to believe he may be right. In the first game between these two clubs this year Martin Lapointe rode Alexei Gusarov awkwardly into the boards, and Gusarov ended up leaving on a stretcher. Lapointe expressed sincere regret about the hit, said he "felt sick" after watching it on tape, and wished Gusarov a speedy recovery. Colorado GM Pierre LaCroix was apoplectic in his calls for Lapointe to be suspended after the game, but the issue died down within a few days. Had Lemieux shown any such similar concern for a fallen foe, this whole episode might have been avoided. It should be noted that when Draper went to the hospital last spring, two Colorado players, Chris Simon and Warren Rychel, inquired after his well being, and Rychel even called Draper's parents to apprise them of his condition. Neither of those players are with the Avalanche this season.

So how does this game impact the two teams as they head down the stretch to the playoffs? For the Red Wings, they exorcised a pesky demon and regained some of the confidence and swagger that they'll need should these two teams meet in the Western Conference final again. For the Avalanche, who have coasted through most of this season high above the other teams in the standings, this may have served as a whiff of smelling salts, arousing their passion and pride in a way that most regular season contests cannot. What tantalizes most, perhaps, is that between all the fights a tremendous hockey game was played, and in less than a year now we've seen a captivating new rivalry take flight in the NHL.

Labels: colorado avalanche, detroit red wings

Thursday, March 22, 2007

A Swede Addition

I'm surprised I didn't already have this one in my blogroll, but be sure to check out Ingmar Bergman Shoots... and Scores! The most recent post is a great online interview with an anonymous Swedish NHL player, that gets well past the usual cliched pablum that athletes generally have to feed the mainstream media. Check it out, as it's about the most casual and open interview you'll see with an athlete these days. Some highlights:

The NHL Player: Shitty hotelroom. I hate it when the toilet is two centimetres higher than the standard. I get uncomfortable not being able to get the bottom of my feet firmly on the floor.

(When I read this I laughed so hard I'm thinking this guy needs his own talkshow on HBO.)

The NHL Player: To all the readers: If you want to marry someone you've put on a pedestal, remember I pick my nose, use the toilet and fart just like the rest of you.

That puts a new spin on those "just like you" commercials the NHL's been running this season, doesn't it?

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Is Sid the Best Playmaker in the NHL?

My recent piece looking at 1st vs. 2nd Assists and the possible impact on Hart Trophy consideration generated a deluge of emails, most expressing outrage over the mere suggestion that anyone other than Sidney Crosby should be awarded the MVP this season. In particular, there was a great deal of anti-Ovechkin rhetoric, including comments like "the last time he ever passed a puck was probably at the dinner table", and others making the point that players with lots of 1st Assists (goal-scorers like Ovechkin) tend to be shooters creating only rebound opportunities rather than actually setting up their teammates.

Today's table tries to answer that question with hard facts. How often do players get assists because of shots taken*?

This year, out of 6,336 goals scored, 1,105 involved an assist due to either a shot that was saved, or a missed shot that was then turned into a goal, roughly one per game. Among the current Top 30 NHL scoring leaders, Teemu Selanne leads the way with 10 such "Shot Assists", representing almost a quarter of his assist total. Crosby's nemesis, Alex Ovechkin, comes in 2nd with 8, as does Colorado winger Andrew Brunette.

On the opposite end of that scale we have Alex Tanguay, Marc Savard, and Sidney Crosby leading the way with the fewest Shot Assists - all gathering less than 4% of their helpers this way, and for Tanguay, he has none at all so far this season!

Let's take a look at the assertion made by some that players with lots of 1st Assists tend to get them from teammates banging in rebounds. For well known snipers like Selanne and Ovechkin, that would certainly seem to hold true, as they both have relatively high 1st Assist percentages (although still a minority), whereas puck distributors like Crosby and Savard have low numbers. But there are a few noteworthy exceptions; take Alex Tanguay, for example, who has the highest 1st Assist percentage on this list (73.1%), without a single one coming after a shot. While he may not score 30 goals as many Calgary fans expected this year, he's certainly doing a good job fanning the Flames (lame pun definitely intended).

What this measure gives us is a quantitative descripter of "playmakers" vs. "scorers". The next question is, which one is more valuable? Certainly, the playmakers embody that tireless sports cliche, "making their teammates better" by getting them the puck in prime scoring situations. Don't forget, however, that shooting and creating rebound opportunities can be a very good thing, as shots off of rebounds are much more likely to score. To me, the interesting point in this table is the difference in style that is shown within positions, such as Crosby/Savard (playmaking centers) vs. Lecavalier/Briere (scoring centers), or on the wing where you have a stark contrast between Tanguay and Brunette. This kind of stuff can provide fodder for countless line-combination discussions, such as "is a scoring winger like Brunette or Ovechkin best served by having a crease-banging winger on the opposite side to go after rebounds?"

So there you go, Crosby fans - affirmation of Sid the Kid's playmaking abilities to go along with his Hart Trophy candidacy. I know if they gave the award out based on "fan reaction to perceived slights", he'd probably win in a landslide!

*Here's the criteria I used: I combed through the play-by-play files, looking for goals that were immediately preceded by a shot (or missed shot), and that shooter got an assist on the goal. There are some minor problems with this data - for example, I found an instance where one player shot the puck, a goal was scored a second later, and he didn't get an assist (even though two other teammates did), and we miss out on assists where a Blocked Shot is involved. If Player A shoots the puck and it's blocked by an opponent (Player B), but then a teammate picks up the rebound and scores, Player A will get an assist, but the play-by-play file won't tell us that Player A shot the puck first - only that Player B made a block that preceded the goal. By and large, however, this should capture the vast majority of situations where a player picks up an assist due to a shot, rather than a passing play. It's also possible that a player takes a shot, picks up his own rebound, and then passes to another teammate for a goal - that would get counted in this analysis as a ShotAssist. All in all, however, these situations account for a small minority, and these numbers are good enough to help us delineate the different kinds of assist makers. In addition, there a few cases where the official scoring for a goal changed after the fact, causing a mismatch between the "A" column and the sum of the "1st Asst" and "2nd Asst" columns. Those are noted by having the "A" column shaded pink, and for each player involved, their totals are off by one assist.

Technorati Tags: Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin

Labels: offense, sidney crosby, statistics

He's Not In Motown Anymore

Apparently New York Ranger Brendan Shanahan's post-concussion recovery is going well - this from the New York Post (link courtesy of Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press):

March 20, 2007 -- LINDSAY Lohan continued her New York party over the
weekend. On Saturday night, she and her pals, deejay Samantha Ronson
and p.r. powerhouse Lisette Sand-Freeman, hit the Beatrice Inn before
going to The Box at 1 a.m. - where Lohan got up on the stage and sang
while doing a "stripper dance" to thunderous applause. She got off easy
- after her, New York Ranger Brendan Shanahan was blindfolded and
ball-gagged as trannies danced around him.

I wonder if one of them has a Rangers jersey with "Tran-ahan" on the
back...

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

What Would Patrick Do?

Following up on the issue of whether the Nashville Predators should have congratulated Mike Modano for becoming the all-time American-born goal scoring leader in NHL history, I thought a specific instance of how such situations should be handled would help clarify things.

We're approaching the 10th anniversary of perhaps the most intense and spectacular regular-season games in NHL history, the March 26, 1997 brawl-fest between the Colorado Avalanche and Detroit Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena (more on that next week). Lost amidst the the furor of Darren McCarty vs. Claude Lemieux (among other battles) was an underreported gesture by Colorado goaltender Patrick Roy at the end of the game. McCarty scored the game winner in overtime, and as his teammates celebrated and headed off the ice, Roy fired the puck down to Red Wings goalie Mike Vernon, with whom Roy had fought just two periods earlier. This was in recognition of the fact that the game marked Vernon's 300th career victory, a hallmark achievement in a goaltender's NHL career.

Was Roy angry and disappointed at losing the game? Absolutely. But he knew that Vernon had reached a noteworthy milestone, and Roy made sure that Vernon got the game puck to mark the occasion. It was the professional thing to do, and Roy didn't let the emotions of the moment get in the way.

That's exactly how the Nashville Predators should have handled Mike Modano's achievement Saturday night, plain and simple.

Tootoo takes the fall, Predators drop the ball

It's quite fashionable to bash the Nashville Predators this season, and last weekend's game against Dallas only added more voices to the chorus seemingly bent on running the Preds out of town, or as some would prefer, out of the league entirely. Since we now know that Jordin Tootoo will sit for five games for knocking out Stephane Robidas, I thought I'd toss my $0.02 in on the evening's activities:

1. Obviously (to most, but not all), the initial hit by Tootoo on Modano was clean, hard hockey. Mike Modano had just played the puck, Tootoo didn't leave his feet, end of story.

2. Robidas sees the hit and turns to charge at Tootoo - he comes at him with his stick in both hands, ready to come in and blast away. Under those circumstances, I don't see Tootoo's response as a "sucker punch", as many have called it*. If Robidas hadn't gotten the concussion from that hard fall, I doubt it would have resulted in a suspension (which is a problem of subjective decision-making in the league office). Who knows what would have happened if Tootoo hadn't turned around, Robidas would likely have drilled him into the boards.

3. Modano's stick swing from behind on Tootoo seemed to be one of those where a guy starts to do something, then stops halfway through. No harm, no foul - maybe they could have called him for a high stick (as they do when even accidental stick contact is made to the head), but that's about it.

4. The Nashville Predators did indeed "fail the game" (to use Dallas President Jim Lites' words) by not recognizing Modano's goal-scoring milestone during Saturday's game. Yes, it was a competitive game against a conference foe the Preds are likely to see in the playoffs. But the NHL is supposed to be about the highest level of professional hockey, not mere city vs. city bloodsport. The classy move would have been to recognize Modano's new status as the leading American-born goal scorer in NHL history, and for the fans to have given him a polite ovation. Especially in a town where the Preds are trying so hard to build a hockey fan base, the misstep here is troubling. If the Predators want to be treated like a top-notch NHL franchise, they need to act like one, and showing the proper respect for hallmark achievements like Modano's should be expected.

Just keep your calendars marked for March 31st, when Tootoo's suspension is over and the Dallas Stars return to Nashville for what could be a 1st-round playoff preview.

*Update: In an interview on Nashville radio Tuesday afternoon, former Star (and current Dallas radio host) Craig Ludwig said he didn't see it as a sucker punch, either.

Technorati Tags: Nashville Predators, Dallas Stars, Jordin Tootoo

Labels: commentary, dallas stars, nashville predators

Saturday, March 17, 2007

We've Got Mail!

Yeah, it's a lame topic for a post, but I'm out of town for the weekend, and got boatloads of email related to my recent article on first vs. second assists and the Hart Trophy that got posted over at FoxSports.com - apparently any gainsaying of Sidney Crosby's achievements brings the fans out in droves! Here are some of the highlights...

I like the argument as to whether or not the second assist is more or less valuable then the first, however, a major stat that gets overlooked in determining the Hart winner is the +/- rating. Do me a favor and add that factor to the computation and see if Mr. Ovechkin and his -19 rating is really worth Hart Trophy mentioning!

Sincerely, a relocated Penguin and Sid”the kid” FAN.

-Matthew

You're right, bringing +/- into the argument certainly doesn't help
Ovechkin, although we always have to remember the limitations of that
stat (namely the influence of your teammates on your numbers).

The comparison of first assists to second assists is a joke becuase in Ovechkins case the last time he ever passed a puck was probably at the dinner table. You also must look at the fact that first assists are counted on rebounds which is the only way Ovechkin will ever get an assist. If they took that away as an assist I would say your comparison has some kind of merit.

- Jeff

Ah, but creating a shot on goal that leads to a rebound opportunity is just as valuable as a pretty pass to set up a one-timer, is it not? I wasn't looking for who's the best playmaker, just trying to add a dimension to how we look at offensive production.

Say what you want to about how "great" Ovechkin is but he's a minus 19. That's awful! Crosby is a lot better than him. Jordan Staal is better, heck he is plus 20 something. That's as important of a stat as primary vs. secondary assists.

-Steve

Hmm... good point. Hey, whattaya know - Dany Heatley and Marian Hossa have even better ratings than Crosby's... +/- can indeed help illuminate things, but it's somewhat "fuzzy" as well, given the impact of who's on the ice for and against your team at any given time.

Bull.... You are digging pretty deep to discredit Sid "The Kid" - although you recovered some credibility when you stated how you earned your points. Don't forget the key plays that open the ice for the scorers and result in the goals usually happen well ahead of the puck going into the net. Do not belittle Sidney's contribution to his team and the game!!

-Just South of 60

Well said, but keep in mind, I'm not saying the first vs. second
assist decides my MVP consideration, it just adds another aspect to
the analysis. I feel quite comfortable stating that in general, first
assists are worth more than seconds..

Obviously being a Penguins fan I hold a ‘little’ bit of bias towards Crosby, but when Ovechkin’s team has 60 points & Crosby’s has 88 points the debate stops there. Without Ovechkin the Caps very possibly could still have that many points, but the Pens in no way, shape, or form would be remotely close to 88. There isn’t a person on the planet that could argue that one in favor of Ovechkin. I do think Alex is a very good player, but Syd’s gonna be the man for years leading the way. You could make the statement all the way back to ‘The Great One’, though he’d still be way ahead of the pack in points, he’d have many many less.

-Eric

Just remember the Hart is for an individual, not a team. I'm sure many Pens fans pulled for Mario for a Hart trophy even though his team had some rough seasons. That said, I don't think the first vs. second assist analysis necessarily concludes that Crosby's not the best player in the league, just that the gap isn't as wide as the normal scoring standings would indicate.

Like a costumed Trekkie outside a movie theater, you need to get a life. You have way too much time on your hands. Then again, why am [I] spending time responding?

-Joe

The thing is, with wireless internet these days, I can be the costumed Trekkie outside the movie theater, and write these articles at the same time! Ain't life grand?

Keep those emails coming, folks - interaction is what makes this whole thing worthwhile.

Technorati Tags: Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin

Labels: mailbag

Friday, March 16, 2007

Revenge of the Nerd

It looks like Mike Chen's blog is back up, after a somewhat nasty hacking incident. Get over there quick, there's a poll!

Thursday, March 15, 2007

They've got a long ways to go, and a short time to get there...

Mirtle made an interesting point the other day about this week's Predators/Red Wings home-and-home series involving a long way to travel (~530 miles) for games on consecutive nights. So I thought to myself, which of the back-to-back matchups have had the most distance between them this year? Estimated distances are from Google Maps directions, which is based on driving distance, but this is good enough for blog work...

On December 29th & 30th, the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues (not even division rivals!), travelled 850 miles and lost an hour along the way, since the first game was in Denver (Mountain time) and the second in St. Louis (Central).

On February 27th & 28th, we had another non-divisional pairing between Ottawa and Carolina, separated by about 830 miles.

On October 16th & 17th, the Edmonton Oilers played at Vancouver then played the Canucks the next night back home (~700 miles).

On December 22nd & 23rd, the Red Wings first hosted the Minnesota Wild, then headed ~690 miles up to Minneapolis for Round 2.

On December 26th & 27th, the Calgary Flames hosted the Canucks, then headed about 600 miles to Vancouver for the rematch.

Those are some horrendous road trips - one would hope the NHL schedule makers try to minimize these events as much as possible, especially considering how some teams (i.e. Northwest division) already travel much more than others (Atlantic).

Maybe these two could drive the Canucks' team bus:

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Deja Vu All Over Again: Predators/Red Wings

It's time for the 2nd half of the Central Division showdown between Detroit and Nashville. Dominik Hasek and Chris Mason face of in goal tonight, replacing the goalies from the night before.

No Erat. No Forsberg. No Sullivan.
No Cleary. No Zetterberg. No Markov.

No crying, OK? Let's just play...

Early 1st: Lots of empty seats in the lower bowl at JLA tonight. At best it's 75% full (of course, those seats are 100% paid for, so don't cry for Little Ceasar).

16:58 1st: Darryl Bootland just can't wait to get his hands on Jordin Tootoo (get a room, you two!), and takes a penalty. Tootoo keeps his gloves on and gives the Preds an early power play opportunity.

16:00 1st: Perhaps the best scoring chance so far as the Wings gain possession in the Preds zone, and set up a shorthanded slapper for Nick Lidstrom from about 20 feet, which Mason stops.

14:20 1st: Another Detroit penalty called as Mathieu Schneider gets tagged for interference, on a mystifying call. Jarred Smithson checked Schneider off the puck and Schneider bumped him as Smithson passed it away. Nothing wrong with checking a player who's just played the puck. Even Terry Crisp, color man for the Predators telecast, thinks Schneider got jobbed.

12:45 1st: Nashville has trouble getting the PP set up, giving the puck away in their own zone before finally getting a decent cross-crease chance for Paul Kariya which Hasek stuffs.

10:32 1st: J.P. Dumont makes a nifty outside-in deke on Nick Lidstrom and gets in close for a shot on Hasek, which results in a mad scrum in front of the Detroit net digging for the loose puck. If the Preds are going to win tonight, they need 2nd-tier scorers like Dumont to keep generating chances like this.

9:23 1st: Detroit now gets its first PP chance of the game, following an interference call to Jason Arnott. Nashville is pressed into using some different personnel (i.e. Tootoo) on the PK due to all their injuries.

7:23 1st: Nashville kills of the penalty without incident, and Legwand nearly connects on a long bomb of a pass to Kariya, who would have been in all alone.

5:10 1st: After allowing Detroit's D to dictate the pace of the game, Nashville gets its best scoring chance of the period as Tootoo sends Darcy Hordichuk in on goal with a nifty pass. Much as in the 2nd and 3rd periods last night, in 5-on-5 action the Red Wings seem to have the puck most of the time, with Nashville getting only the occasional dangerous chance.

1:54 1st: Alexander Radulov gets the Predators on the board with a tremendous individual effort. He picks up the puck around the red line and charges into the Detroit zone, keeping a step ahead of Lilja and putting a glove side wrister past Hasek for a 1-0 lead. Perhaps the questions the Nashville coaching staff have about the rookie's ability to play in big games are getting answered...

1:07 1st: Pavel Datsyuk sets up Valtteri Filppula for the Wings best shot of the period, and Mason deflects it stick side. The period ends 1-0, with Detroit carrying much of the play, but highlight-type efforts by Dumont and Radulov have the Predators in the lead.

19:12 2nd: Vernon Fiddler gets a close-in attempt off a nice steal and feed from J.P. Dumont. Nicklas Kronwall for Detroit then plows Fiddler over the top of his goaltender, drawing a few complaints from the home crowd who want their aged goalie protected.

18:47 2nd: Kirk Maltby sparks a spirited scrum along the boards after Smithson and Kris Draper have words, but no blows are thrown and offsetting penalties to Maltby and Fiddler are handed out.

18:44 2nd: Datsyuk wins an offensive zone faceoff cleanly back to Lidstrom, who blasts a slapper past Mason to tie the game at 1-1. There might have been a bit of a screen on the shot, but it was a laser low to the glove side, and as Mason came over to follow the play, he didn't have a chance.

17:50 2nd: Paul Kariya takes the puck from the Nashville blue line and streaks through into the Red Wings zone, barely a step ahead of Schneider for Detroit, who takes his him down trying to prevent the breakaway. Kariya goes down right into the goalpost and is slow to get back on his feet, but heads off under his own power. For a moment, Predators fans see their season pretty much flash before their eyes. Schneider gets the tripping call and the Preds get their third power play of the game... and frankly Detroit's lucky it wasn't called for a penalty shot.

13:19 2nd: Kariya (back in the game after his crash) almost gets another breakaway chance but Hasek comes way out to play the puck away. Shortly afterward, J.P. Dumont and Tomas Holmstrom collide unintenionally near center-ice, and both head off to their benches huffing and puffing. Those unanticipated collissions are often the most dangerous.

11:10 2nd: A nice long pass by Kronwall sets up a couple shots for Detroit, and Dumont then heads back into the Red Wing end to set up a shot by Ramzi Abid. This is a rare example of up-and-down play within the game. Most of the action has been pretty choppy.

10:08 2nd: The Red Wings are really working the Hail Mary, as Lidstrom connects with Mikael Samuelsson on a formerly two-line pass.

9:48 2nd: Nashville works hard on the cycle and gets a goal from Jason Arnott to take a 2-1 lead. Radulov and Dumont do most of the dirty work, and as Dumont feeds Kimmo Timonen off to the side of the net, the puck bounces off of Arnott and into the net behind Hasek. There's some review to determine whether Arnott used his glove to direct the puck in, but the goal stands. Radulov doesn't get an assist on the play, but he definitely helped make it happen.

8:40 2nd: The Red Wings get to work on their own cycling play, where Kyle Calder really shines as he keeps the puck away from the Nashville D while looking for an open man.

4:31 2nd: Much more back-and forth play between the two teams, and the line of Kariya/Legwand/Tootoo generates some good shots for Nashville. Hasek's on his game, however, keeping the Detroit deficit at one.

3:37 2nd: The on-puck strength of Robert Lang and Kyle Calder pays off in the form of a Jiri Hudler goal to tie the game at 2-2. Lang and Calder draw all the attention from the Nashville defense, while Hudler finds an open spot to take a rebound and put it through Mason's 5-hole. This is the line that posted a +3 apiece in last night's game.

2:46 2nd: Lilja staples Tootoo's head into the glass with his elbow, putting the Predators on another power play.

End 2nd: Detroit kills of the penalty, setting up what should be an exciting third period...

17:40 3rd: After a brief tangle, Tootoo bangs Datsyuk, which sends the Detroit forward sprawling along the ice trying to draw a call. The refs could have called both (holding the stick on Datsyuk and rough on Tootoo) or neither, and choose to hold their whistles.

14:19 3rd: The Calder/Lang/Hudler line strikes again for Detroit, this time as Lang carries the puck in and Calder fills the high slot, Hudler sneaks in behind the Nashville D to receive the pass and put a top corner, short-side wrister past Mason to put the Red Wings up 3-2.

12:20 3rd: J.P. Dumont gets another good opportunity with a 10-foot wrister that Hasek turns aside. The Predators don't want to let Detroit win this one in regulation, letting them take the Central Division lead with a game in hand, so look for the Predators to pull out all the stops down the stretch.

10:00 3rd: The Wings are starting to control the play once again, setting up a couple good shots and stopping Nashville rushes before they get rolling. The Detroit fans finally wake up with "Let's Go Red Wings" chants, and Hudler clanks one of the post, narrowly missing his Hat Trick.

8:10 3rd: Word comes in that Valtteri Filppula has suffered a dreaded "lower body injury" and won't return for the rest of the night... my money's on an ingrown toenail.

6:15 3rd: Nashville gets a chance to tie as Robert Lang gets a hooking call as the "offensively challenged" Greg Zanon charged down the slot.

Late 3rd: The Predators work hard for some shots in the final minutes, but Hasek turns them aside and the rebounds are promptly sent down the ice by Detroit defensemen. Kirk Maltby fires home an empty netter with 36.9 seconds left (taking care to cross center-ice to avoid a possible icing), and seals a 4-2 victory for the Red Wings.

My 3 stars:
1. Jiri Hudler (2G)
2. Nick Lidstrom (1G)
3. Robert Lang (2A)

The Skinny: Nashville's defense just couldn't handle the Calder/Lang/Hudler line all night, and despite some strong individual efforts by Kariya, Radulov and Dumont, the Predators had trouble generating consistent offense. For now, the Wings take command in the Central Division, as they head on the road to take on the Canucks and Flames. The Predators come home to play Dallas Saturday night (already a sold-out game) before heading out themselves to take on a Northwest swing through Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton.

Labels: detroit red wings, nashville predators

More Wings/Predators Action Tonight

With any luck I'll attempt another liveblogging tonight, of the Wings/Predators rematch at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. First, a few thoughts and updates from last night's game:

1. Martin Erat is going to be out for 4 weeks due to a sprained knee suffered during a collision with teammate Jason Arnott last night. That's a tough blow to a Nashville offense already missing Peter Forsberg and Steve Sullivan.

2. Marek Zidlicky came in at a dreadful -5 rating for the night (prompting a lively discussion on the Preds message board), whereas the Red Wing line of Kyle Calder/Robert Lang/Jiri Hudler came in at +3 each (as did defenseman Chris Chelios).

3. I can't recall when it occured, but there was an amusing moment when Chelios got the puck in his own end, and with plenty of space around him, stood there and craned his neck to look up at the scoreboard to see how much time was remaining. A pretty ballsy move by the aged veteran...

Check back later this evening for more Central division action...

Labels: Central, detroit red wings, nashville predators

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators Liveblog

OK, here we go - the 1st half of a home-and-home that just might settle things in what has been a very tight Central Division this season. With only a dozen games left in the season, the Red Wings are three points back with a game in hand, so two regulation victories by either team this week would open up a relatively sizeable gap at this late stage. For Nashville, a lively sellout crowd is expected, but one question will be how heavy the Red Wings support is. Traditionally, there have been a huge number of Detroit fans in the house for these games.

Tonight's starting goalies: Chris Osgood for Detroit, and Tomas Vokoun for Nashville, same as in their matchup last week. Peter Forsberg is still out of the lineup for the Predators.

18:21 1st: The Predators get the first good chance with J.P. Dumont feeding Jason Arnott down close, but they fail to convert. After Kyle Calder storms down the right wing and pings a shot off the post, he picks up the rebound, carries it around behind the net, and takes a backhanded wrap-around attempt that Vokoun kicks out. Robert Lang picks up the loose puck in the low slot and puts it home to put Detroit up 1-0, his 18th of the year (assists to Kyle Calder and Jiri Hudler). Will this be the winning goal in Kukla's challenge today?

NOTE: Calder was a real handful for Nashville the last time these two teams played.

14:38 1st: Jordin Tootoo gets the crowd buzzing with a big hit on Mathieu Schneider. Just 30 seconds later, Schneider retaliates with a hit as the play comes out of the Nashville end, and takes an interference penalty for Detroit. Nashville goes on the power play, and Tootoo's done his job.

12:58 1st: The Nashville power play doesn't do much in the first minute, but coming out of their own end David Legwand carries the puck over to the boards as he crosses into the Detroit zone, drawing three defenders. Alexander Radulov is left wide open to accept the pass coming down the middle, and he has plenty of time to pick his spot with a wrist shot that beats Osgood to the stick side and ties the score at 1-1 (assists to David Legwand and Kimmo Timonen). For a rookie whose scoring pace dropped off after the New Year, that kind of goal can be a confidence-builder.

11:45 1st: Tootoo's agitation pays off again, as Chris Chelios steps up to try and level #22 for Nashville, and yields a 2-on-1 to the Predators as a result, with Ramzi Abid getting a dangerous scoring chance that Osgood deflects to the corner. Brett Lebda goes to the box for hooking during the odd man rush and Nashville goes on the power play again...

9:38 1st: Detroit kills off the penalty, and looks dangerous to score on the PK to boot.

7:56 1st: Nashville gets their third consecutive power play, this time when Osgood transgresses against the Mighty Trapezoid. Too bad Mike Keenan and Scotty Bowman aren't coaching these days, I'm sure they'd have some innovative techniques for counseling goalies in that area of the game.

2:12 1st: Darryl Bootland for Detroit levels Ryan Suter along the boards, much as Tootoo did earlier to Schneider. Both teams start to pick up the physical intensity, as Marek Zidlicky rides Nick Lidstrom roughly into the boards behind the net...

In the final minute of the 1st Nashville gets a couple good rebound opportunities, including a dangerous attempt by Radulov. As we head into intermission tied at one goal apiece, there have been good chances at both ends (more for Nashville given the three power plays), and the aggressive hitting will hopefully set a tone for the rest of the night.

18:25 2nd: Detroit finally gets their first power play, as Darcy Hordichuk gets whistled for a careless high stick to the head of Chris Chelios. They immediately get good possession in the Nashville zone and set up an open slapper for Pavel Datsyuk, which Vokoun turns aside.

16:25 2nd: Nashville kills of the penalty, but shortly thereafter Kyle Calder can't connect with a dribbling puck in front of a wide-open net that would have given Detroit the lead.

15:30 2nd: Kris Draper heads behind the Nashville net but sneaks a centering pass into the slot where Kirk Maltby snaps it up high for a 2-1 Detroit lead (assists to Kris Draper and Valtteri Filppula). The Nashville defense got caught watching Draper carry the puck, and left Maltby all alone.

13:50 2nd: After a deflected shot goes into the stands, Tootoo and Bootland get into a tussle down in the corner that sends both of them to the box (with an additional minor to Tootoo), and gets the crowd buzzing again. The linesmen jump in right away, apparently not wanting things to escalate tonight. Frankly the Preds needed something like that to get them going, as Detroit has carried the play thus far in the period. For now, however, Detroit gets its second power play chance.

11:50 2nd: Nashville smoothly kills the penalty off, and the physical play picks up once again, as Shea Weber gets rough with Filppula along the boards.

9:47 2nd: Osgood looks shaky as he gives up a juicy rebound off a long Radulov shot, but he then shuts down another good chance for Radulov off a feed from Suter out of the corner. There isn't much margin for error in a game like this, however, so look for the Predators to keep working the traffic in front of the Detroit net.

6:51 2nd: Nashville gets their first PP chance of the period, as Maltby goes to the box for slashing. The Preds go with Erat-Arnott-Kariya up front, with Timonen and Weber on defense.

4:51 2nd: Detroit kills of the penalty, and starts taking control again as Datsyuk carries in dangerously but the Wings fail to score. Detroit is playing a great road game, keeping the Preds bottled up for most of this period. Nashville then picks up a too-many-men penalty, which gives the Red Wings the man advantage...

2:40 2nd: The Wings are setting up good chances on the PP, first a close-in stuff attempt by Tomas Holmstrom, then a wrister from 20 feet or so by Datsyuk that he fired wide.

The Predators get a couple shots in the final minute, but overall, the Red Wings dictated the pace in the 2nd period, keeping the heat off a less-than-impressive Chris Osgood. After being outshot 13-4 in the 1st period, Detroit outshot Nashville 15-5 in the 2nd. Osgood's tentativeness in goal is what gives Nashville its best chance to come back heading into the 3rd...

19:10 3rd: Datsyuk makes his presence known with a nifty move down low that resulted in a backhanded shot when everyone else in the arena thought he was taking the puck behind the net.

18:36 3rd: Jiri Hudler puts the Wings ahead 3-1 on a quick shot off a feed from Kyle Calder. Calder picked the puck up as it came around the boards, easily shouldering off a Nashville checker before feeding a soft pass to Hudler. Once again, Calder's strength on the puck makes the Predators pay.

16:43 3rd: A couple catfish hit the ice. With the home team down by two goals, I'm not sure whether folks are trying to get the Predators motivated, or they're ditching their seafood before heading for the parking lot...

16:09 3rd: Datsyuk comes flying in with a dangerous chance, and a couple rebound opportunities follow for Detroit, before the Preds get things covered. The fans get riled up after some pushing & shoving, but the Red Wings continue to dominate play.

15:59 3rd: Nashville draws a holding call on Hudler, but before the whistle blows, Paul Kariya gets in behind the Detroit defense and tries a short-side wrister, but Osgood makes the pad save to maintain the two-goal lead.

14:53 3rd: The Preds get their best shot yet, drawing another call on Detroit to establish about a minute of 5-on-3 power play time, as Chris Chelios goes off for holding the stick. Just eight seconds in, Martin Erat puts in a rebound shot to pull Nashville within a goal at 3-2 (assists to Jason Arnott and Paul Kariya). Since the oldest penalty expires for Detroit, that still leaves Nashville with 1:52 of PP time to tie things up.

11:27 3rd: Detroit kills off the rest of the PP, but Nashville maintains possession in the offensive zone and draws another penalty, this time on Nicklas Kronwall for holding Ramzi Abid behind the Detroit net.

10:47 3rd: Osgood makes perhaps his best stop of the night, shutting down Jason Arnott from about two feet outside the crease. Arnott is visibly frustrated, rolling his eyes after the save.

7:36 3rd: Arnott awkwardly runs over teammate Erat as they cross into the Detroit zone (offsides), and Erat has to be helped off the ice by two players. He heads right back down the tunnel...

6:00 3rd: Audible chants of "Let's Go Predators" are heard, but Detroit slows the pace down to where they like it, casually dumping the puck into the Nashville end and preventing the Predators from building up any steam through center ice.

4:33 3rd: The Preds get one more power play, after a goaltender interference call against Detroit. Nashville fails to set things up, and Detroit kills the penalty off without any significant shots given up.

2:02 3rd: Kyle Calder puts a fork in this one, putting Detroit up 4-2 late in the period. Calder had Hudler heading to the net, and his centering attempt actually deflected off a Nashville defenseman's skate, beating Vokoun short-side (Vokoun was starting to come over to play the pass).

1:21 3rd: Filppula takes advantage of a terrible Nashville giveaway (J.P. Dumont skated right by the puck, expecting a teammate to take it) and goes in all alone on Vokoun, beating him to the glove side for a 5-2 Red Wings advantage. The crowd has gone dead quiet...

The final score is 5-2 Detroit. The win pulls Detroit within 1 point of Nashville in the standings, making tomorrow night's matchup even more important! See you then...

My 3 Stars:
1) Kyle Calder (1G, 2A) played a tough offensive game all night long, working hard and producing results.
2) Valtteri Filppula (1G 1A).
3) Alexander Radulov (1G)

Technorati Tags: Detroit Red Wings, Nashville Predators

Labels: detroit red wings, nashville predators

Battle for the Central - tonight

Come back later on for a liveblogging* of tonight's pivotal matchup between the Red Wings and Predators for Central division supremacy, the first half of a home-and-home that concludes in Detroit tomorrow night. Will either team take charge, or will we be left with overtime results that don't settle anything? Stay tuned...

*liveblogging in my case means getting the kids to bed not too long into the first period, and catching up via Tivo.

Technorati Tags: Detroit Red Wings, Nashville Predators

Labels: detroit red wings, nashville predators

You've gotta have Hart

As the 2006-7 NHL Regular Season heads into its final weeks, it's time to consider the contenders for some of the major awards. In order to add ammunition to your own barstool-style arguments over the Hart Trophy for league MVP, I thought I'd provide some statistical fodder for the debates to come.

One topic that occasionally comes up in these sorts of discussions is the relative worth of 1st vs. 2nd assists. While everyone can come up with examples of goals where the 2nd assist involved more effort or skill than the 1st assist (i.e. a great pass that sets up a shot that's stopped, but then someone taps in the rebound), the general agreement is that 1st assists are generally "worth more" than 2nd assists, with the tricky question being, "how much so?" I won't get into that issue today, but rather want to take our NHL scoring leaders and see how they're doing in terms of 1st vs. 2nd assists.

The table below takes the current Top 30 NHL scorers based on conventional scoring, and splits out their assists between 1st and 2nd, using details from the Play by Play files. I've also shown the percentage of overall assists which are "1st Assists", as well as a Modified Points column that shows what individual scoring would be if only goals and 1st assists were counted, as was the case decades ago, when helmets were a rarity and the term "CBA" meant somebody just had their ABC's backwards.*

Viewed through this perspective, Sidney Crosby's dominance is somewhat diminished. Four of the five 40-goal scorers (Lecavalier, Heatley, Ovechkin and Hossa) pass ahead of the youngster in the modified standings, with perhaps the most notable jump made by Alex Ovechkin, based on the fact that nearly three-quarters of his assists are of the more substantial variety. The biggest fall on this list is by Joe Sakic, who collects the highest proportion of 2nd Assists. While Crosby's overall point lead in the conventional standings is basically due to the level of 2nd Assists he's generated, it's not like he hasn't put up stellar numbers overall. His 41 1st Assists are second-most in the league behind Joe Thornton.

Granted, this covers only one aspect of the MVP debate, and there are also off-ice considerations that will likely come into play, given the precarious state of the Pittsburgh franchise through much of the season. Devoted Penguins fans have been faced with the threat of losing Crosby and his wunderkind teammates like Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal to relocation, and instead they're relishing a happy ending not just to that story, but also the team's first playoff berth in years. Combine that with the endless stream of Gretzky comparisons, and the hockey writers might find the "Crosby saving the Pens and winning the Hart while a teenager" story too hard to resist.

What this picture shows, however, is that maybe the offensive leadership in the NHL is more even than it would normally appear given the standard statistics.

*Just to be clear, I don't think 2nd assists are worthless, just that providing this level of detail adds a new dimension to the scoring debate. Heck, without 2nd assists, this stay-at-home beer league blueliner wouldn't have many points at all...

Technorati Tags: hart trophy, mvp, sidney crosby

Labels: offense, statistics

Saturday, March 10, 2007

The Saturday morning constitutional

This morning I thought I'd take a stroll through the blogroll and pass along some highlights:

JavaGeek over at Hockey Numbers has a team-by-team breakdown of on-ice pairings, detailing how much time each player is spending on the ice with his teammates, and a rating for positive or negative performance. Great stuff...

The Ice Block shows us a positive portrait of a retired NHL player in the popular Adam Graves. See, they're not all stick-swinging louts...

Speaking of Chris Simon, Hockey Dirt poses the question of whether a reported concussion sustained during the initial hit by Ryan Hollweg might provide a partial explanation for this week's incident.

Odd Man Rush makes a case for Colorado's Paul Stastny for the Calder Trophy as NHL rookie of the year. Most of the early noise has been for Pittsburgh's dynamic diaper-dandy duo of Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal, but Stastny's steady production has slowly but surely brought him to prominence.

Sidearm Delivery boasts a gallery of hockey jerseys horrors. Whose idea was it to put a cow (with steaming pile behind him) on a hockey uniform?

Steph at No Pun Intended shares some on-ice singing by various NHL players. I don't think we'll see any of them doing the pre-game anthem anytime soon...

Mike Chen looks for the positive NHL possibilities resulting from the Chris Simon controversy. Just as Oscar Wilde wrote, "there is only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about."

Joe Pelletier over at Legends of Hockey brings us up to date on Joe Juneau, rocket scientist.

The pic over at Battle of New York is sad and desperate. How can the fans in Pittsburgh possibly blame Mario Lemieux if that franchise moves? If it wasn't for #66, the Pens would have probably left town a decade ago.

Go ahead and take a few clicks around the blogosphere, and enjoy the weekend...

Friday, March 09, 2007

NHL setting the pace once again

Sure, everybody has their pet complaint about the NHL, whether it be insufficient suspensions for violent acts, marketing failures, possible franchise moves, etc. But let's give credit to the league when it is due. An article in today's IOL out of South Africa notes that FIFA, the international governing body for soccer, is looking at NHL-style video review for goal validation. The plan is to have something in place for the 2007 Club World Cup in Tokyo.

While sometimes the review process can longer than some would like, you have to admit that video review usually gets things right and has been a positive addition to the sport, and now, is being recognized for that success.

Technorati Tags: FIFA, World Cup

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Viva Las Vegas? Viva Las Whalers!

Following Mirtle's lead once again, bizjournals.com came out last month with a comparison of which US sports markets were overextended, based on total personal income compared to the requirements of current professional sports teams located there. For example, the Tampa/St. Petersburg/Clearwater, Florida area was judged to be the most overextended, since the combined personal income of $75.6 billion supports an NFL, NHL, and MLB team. Compare that to a city like Seattle, which has three teams as well (NFL, MLB, and NBA), but boasts a total personal income of $156.6 billion*.

The neat part is that bizjournals posted a spreadsheet with some of the details. So let's tour some of the numbers, remembering that this refers only to income levels vs. the requirements to support a local team, based on ticket prices and other factors. The income levels to support various teams were as follows:

Major League Baseball, $89.2 billion
National Basketball Association, $38.4 billion
National Hockey League, $35.7 billion
National Football League, $33.0 billion
Major League Soccer, $16.1 billion

It's interesting how the NHL and NBA come in so closely together. It's high time for the NHL to realize that in its efforts to grow the sport nationally, the NBA is its direct competitor for the American sports-entertainment dollar. They play at the same time of year, with an 82-game schedule, in the same class of arena (i.e., not a football or baseball venue).

With all the talk about the Pittsburgh Penguins potentially moving, Mirtle was quick to note that Kansas City, usually cited as the favored destination for the Pens, came in as the 5th-most overextended sports market (even worse, they're the most overextended market that doesn't already have an NHL team).

Allow me to note this again, just to be clear. From a standpoint of available personal income within various metropolitan markets, Kansas City might well be the worst place in the U.S. to put an NHL team right now.

But don't get excited, Pens fans, because the price of sports has gotten so high in recent years that you'll probably have trouble holding on to all three of the Pirates, Steelers, and Penguins. And since the first two already have spanking new venues, it makes the cost of keeping the Pens that much more burdensome.

As to those markets which were most attractive to expansion, Las Vegas came in 4th, but I'm surprised Mirtle didn't note the city in 3rd, Hartford, Connecticut! The difference between the two is quite large. Las Vegas showed an available income figure of $56.2 billion, vs. Hartford's $77.8 billion. When you also consider the fact that a proven hockey fan base already exists in that area, perhaps the Pens should morph into whales...

Among NHL cities that would be considered overextended, Tampa, Phoenix and Denver were the top 3, followed by Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Buffalo and Minneapolis. For those interested in Nashville's plight, their market pretty much balanced out the requirements of an NFL and NHL team - clearly the money is here to support the Predators, but the corporate community needs to get energized about hockey. It remains to be seen whether a dramatic playoff run can get that momentum started in the Music City.

*Income figures taken from 2003. For more, see bizjournals.com.

Labels: economics

Is T.O.'s publicist available?

Fresh off of Mirtle's blog, it appears the NHL is looking for a new Public Relations Manager. So brush up those resumes and send them in! What's the worst that could happen?

Frankly, Mr. Bettman, just call off the search and go with Alanah...

Labels: commentary

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Give & Take

Following up on our look at the extent to which personal judgement might affect the compilation of the NHL's Extended Statistics, I bring you today a look at Giveaways and Takeaways. In a nutshell, the numbers seem to show once again that the level of Giveaways and Takeaways per game is primarily dependent on the site of the game, not the teams involved. Compared to the Missed Shot, Gives and Takes don't have much of a direct role relative to other hockey stats, in the sense that whether or not an official scorer calls something a Giveaway or a Takeaway doesn't impact the value of key stats such as Shots, Goals, Assists, or Saves. Nevertheless, if the NHL is going to publish statistics, it has an interest in ensuring valid data is being put out there, and what I'm seeing is a hodge-podge of data that defies logical explanation.

Within the following tables, the Road column shows a teams average events per game while on the road, Home shows the number for home games, and Visitors shows the value for other teams playing in their building. Let's start with Giveaways first...

So what is it about those Oilers fans that cause Edmonton to give the puck away three times as often on home ice? And gosh, is the ice so bad in Dallas that the puck hops away from players who can't control it? Jumping down to the bottom of this list, it seems like teams hardly give it up at all in Columbus or Chicago. When you look at how teams perform on the road (when they play in front of a myriad of official scorers), the numbers fall into a pretty tight range, with all but a few between 7 and 9 Giveaways per game. When you isolate the action down to a single official scorer, however (in the case of the Home and Visitors columns), the numbers go all over the place. The Visitors column helps isolate the official scorer's tendency even more, because we're basically seeing how they perform relative to a wide variety of teams (albeit facing a common opponent). The bottom line is that there is clearly some major differences in opinion as to what consitutues a Giveaway between scorers for the teams at the top and bottom of this table.

And now, the Takeaways...

Again, we have a similar story. At home, the Canadiens and Avalanche (and their visiting opponents) are borderline kleptomaniacs, but on the road, they fall right into line with the average value of 6.2 Takes per Game. Similarly, Takeaways are almost unheard of in Buffalo, Chicago and Pittsburgh. Buffalo and Pittsburgh are especially obvious problems when you see that their Road totals are two of the three best in the league, so the consensus opinion would seem to indicate they swipe the puck more than most.

It's truly unfortunate that we see such wide disparity in these numbers, based on the location of the game (and hence the official scorer involved). Some level of individual judgement is naturally expected, but the levels seen here too troubling to be ignored, and the NHL would be wise to address this, either by drafting and rolling out some standards (much like they do with refereeing) or by abolishing these stats altogether. In the past, I've done some pieces that I thought were pretty interesting, and while I knew the data to somewhat open to interpretation, the insight gleaned from relative values could still be useful. This look at things makes me doubt whether much use, if any, could be made out of using Giveaways and Takeaways at all, however. Unless anyone has some good suggestions, I think I'll hold off from using these stats in any future analysis...

Labels: statistics

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Predators/Red Wings in Motown

7:58 1st: After killing off a Nashville power play, Detroit starts to take control of the action, culminating in a blast from Niklas Lidstrom that stings Predators defenseman Greg Zanon before going into the stands. Zanon doesn't look so spry as he heads to the bench. It's all in a day's work for the stay-at-home blueliner, who heads into the game leading the Preds with 142 blocked shots.

7:11 1st: Another wide-open rebound chance blown by Detroit, as Kyle Calder sends one wide. The Red Wings can't afford to let too many of those opportunities slip by.

4:52 1st (1-1): The Predators tie things up on the power play. For about a minute, Nashville had trouble setting up a decent play, but a long-distance shot by Paul Kariya turned into a tap-in opportunity for Martin Erat. Red Wing Chris Chelios was outnumbered in front of the net as Jason Arnott was there as well.

2:08 1st: Things start to heat up physically, as Shea Weber checks and throws down Kyle Calder behind the Nashville net, bringing a rise out of the Hockeytown crowd. A few minutes earlier, Jiri Hudler checked Dan Hamhuis awkwardly into the boards, so we'll see if this continues into the 2nd period. Lots of empty seats are visible in the lower bowl, but of course in Detroit those are bought and paid for. Perhaps they need more seat fillers?

The first period ends 1-1, with Detroit getting more of the quality scoring opportunities, and the emotions high on both sides.

Early 2nd: Word comes in that Scott Nichol is out of the game with a broken thumb, leaving Nashville with 11 forwards.

14:49 2nd (2-1 NSH): After some good up-and-down action, J.P. Dumont makes a harmless dump into the corner to Osgood's left, but Jerred Smithson hustles in to feed the puck back to a trailing Jason Arnott who one-times it from the faceoff dot past Ozzy for a 2-1 Nashville lead. The Predators TV duo mistakenly rave about Dumont's hard forechecking work on the play, but it was clearly Smithson getting the 1st assist.

Mid 2nd: He may not be scoring like he did earlier in the season, but rookie Alexander Radulov is contributing well in other areas, applying pressure on the forecheck. As noted in the recent Sports Illustrated piece, Nashville needs to find out how well Radulov responds to pressure situations, leading into the playoffs this spring.

7:42 2nd: Tomas Vokoun looks very sharp, shutting down a great chance by Nicklas Lidstrom, who snuck down from the left point to take a crossing pass from Pavel Datsyuk. Vokoun had to cross from left to right to stuff the opportunity.

7:30 2nd (2-2): Whoops, sorry to jinx you, Tomas. The Red Wings tie things up on the power play, as Robert Lang picks up the rebound off a Niklas Kronwall point shot to tie the game at 2.

7:05 2nd (3-2 DET): Mathieu Schneider jumps up into the play out of the Detroit end, takes a Robert Lang pass at center ice, and carries the puck all the way down between the circles before sending a nice wrister to the far-side top corner to put the Red Wings ahead. It's Schneider's 200th career goal, and he couldn't have asked for a nicer play.

5:17 2nd: A mad scramble in front of the Nashville net with Kyle Calder creating havoc down low, and the Predators defense struggling to handle him. One of the notable scratches for tonight is Vitaly Vishnevski, who was acquired to add "grit" to the mix for Nashville.

2:59 2nd: With Detroit on the power play again, Nashville just doesn't look good in front of Vokoun. Johan Franzen sets up just outside the crease for a good 5 seconds before a Predators defenseman lamely tugs him from behind. In net, Vokoun is reduced to shifting left and right, trying to get a clear view. Considering that uber-screener Tomas Holmstrom isn't even playing tonight, that doesn't bode well for Nashville.

The 2nd period ends with the momentum clearly in Detroit's favor. They capitalized on a couple opportunities to take the lead, and in the final minute, Kirk Maltby starts agitating, apparently in an attempt to draw a penalty from Nashville.

Early 3rd: Another Predator goes down to injury, as Marek Zidlicky succumbs to the dreaded "upper body injury". That could mean anything from a tummy ache to a brain tumor as far as I can tell...

17:20 3rd: The line of Jordin Tootoo-Vernon Fiddler-Alexander Radulov has a nice shift, creating a couple good chances. With all the big names not playing tonight, it's interesting to see which depth players make an impact.

13:00 3rd: The Predators kill of a Detroit power play nicely, keeping their hopes alive as time slips away.

8:18 3rd (3-3): As Martin Erat carries the puck down the right boards, Mathieu Schneider cuts off his scoring chance and Erat continues behind the net, dropping the puck off at the left point. A wrist shot from Greg Zanon hits Osgood in the right shoulder, pops up, over, and into the net behind to tie the game at 3. Both Alexander Radulov and David Legwand were in front screening Osgood, and suddenly we've got a tied game. What are the chances we'll head for overtime? Judging by the results lately, pretty good.

5:52 3rd: The Predators are buzzing, as they get a 3-on-1 crossing the blue line into the Red Wings end, but Jarred Smithson holds onto the puck too long and fires a wrister that Osgood blocks easily.

3:35 3rd: More good chances for Nashville, as Martin Erat creates a rebound chance first for Radulov and then later Legwand. Erat has been able to carry the puck around the offensive zone nearly at will all game, holding off the Detroit D while looking for open teammates or a good shooting lane.

late 3rd: Some great chances for both teams in the final minute of regulation. Another hustle play (this time it really was J.P. Dumont) into the corner yields a couple shots, on the ensuing Detroit rush Datsyuk sets up Franzen nicely in the slot, but Vokoun denies him. We're headed for overtime...

4:10 OT: Dan Hamhuis takes the initiative, protecting the puck with his body as he carries it behind the Detroit net, and feathers a soft centering pass that goes through several skates before action heads back up ice.

3:25 OT: The defense for Nashville is getting all the good chances, with Shea Weber working hard to create a shot while fighting off Brett Lebda all the way.

1:22 OT: The Red Wings almost catch Nashville on a change, but the pass for Johan Franzen skips off his stick.

OT finishes with one last flourish for Detroit, with Nicklas Lidstrom getting a shot from about 35 feet. Vokoun deflects it, and we're headed for a shootout...

DET - Pavel Datsyuk: He comes straight down the middle, and puts a quick backhander by Vokoun's stick side. DET 1-0

NSH - Alexander Radulov: The rookie comes down the middle much like Datsyuk, but goes to the forehand and Osgood makes the leg pad save. DET 1-0

DET - Jiri Hudler: Hudler takes a forehand shot from about 10 feet out, with Vokoun making a routine toe save. DET 1-0

NSH - Paul Kariya: One of the top shootout snipers in the NHL, Kariya approaches from the right side, and lifts a shot high to the short side over Osgood's glove to tie things up. 1-1

DET - Valteri Filppula: The speedy youngster dekes once to the backhand before attempting a forehand tuck, but Vokoun barely gets the toe on it, and recovers to stop the puck before it crosses the goal line. 1-1

NSH - J.P. Dumont: Dumont swings wide to the right and tries a similar shot as Kariya's, but Osgood makes the glove save.

DET - Johan Franzen: Franzen comes in slowly from the right side, and after a forehand/backhand deke, gets Vokoun down and puts a forehand shot high to take the lead 2-1. Nashville must score to keep it alive.

NSH - Martin Erat: An approach down the middle results in a wrister covered easily by Osgood. Detroit wins the shootout in four rounds, 2-1.

Overall, a well played game that leaves plenty of questions for the matchups to follow, once more of the regulars return to action.

My 3 Stars:

Martin Erat, Nashville: The most dangerous forward all night long.
Mathieu Schneider, Detroit: His quickness helped contain Nashville defensively, and created the Wings third goal.
Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit: He wasn't consistently a force, but his early goal put the Nashville defense on notice that it was going to be a long night.

Technorati Tags: detroit red wings, nashville predators

Labels: detroit red wings, nashville predators

A new one for the blogroll...

Over at Kukla's Korner, Paul has put out the call for hockey website suggestions, and from the swelling list I've found a new addition for the blogroll: From Behind the Mask, an informed and amusing Sharks blog...

Labels: san jose sharks

Monday, March 05, 2007

A Shot is a Shot is a Shot, right?

When it comes to using the extended NHL statistics (hits, giveaways, takeaways, etc.) the question of reliability naturally comes into play. These incidents are recorded by scorers in each NHL arena, and individual interpretation is likely to yield varying results. Some allege that official scorers awards lots of Hits to the home team, or skew shot totals by the determination of a Missed Shot (if the shot would have gone wide, but the home team goalie blocked it anyway, they might call it a Shot and a Save for the goalie, boosting his stats, rather than a Missed Shot). For many people, this possibility of poor data quality turns them away from putting much value on these statistics, but the question I have today is, how much of a factor is this "judgement" aspect? Do we indeed see teams out there with inordinate results compared to the rest of the league? Let's take a look...

The data here comes from the Event Summaries from the 2005-6 and current seasons (2,199 games), from which I've noted the location of the game, the teams involved, and the game totals for the various extended stats (Hits, Takeaways, Giveaways, Blocked Shots, Missed Shots, and Shots). For today, I'll focus on Missed Shots.

The graphic below shows the fraction of Total Shots that are scored as Missed. For instance, if a team had 10 Missed Shots in a game, and had 25 Shots otherwise (they were either Goals or Saves), this number would be 10/35, or 0.286 (which is close to the league average of 0.285 since the lockout). The columns show the results for each team when they are on the Road, when they are at Home, and what Visitors do in their arena. The extreme values are shaded green or pink, accordingly. At the bottom, I've noted the Standard Deviation for each column.

By the looks of this table, it would be good to be a goalie in Chicago or Boston - a low fraction of Missed Shots translates into extra Saves for the goaltenders, since this judgement only comes into play, by definition, when the puck doesn't go in the net. Do we really think the game is played so differently in those two rinks that players put more shots on net there than anywhere else? It's interesting to note here that the most extreme teams at each end of the scale are Chicago and St. Louis, both similarly poor teams in the Central division, playing similar schedules. Yet in St. Louis, you see almost twice as many Missed Shots per game than in the Windy City.

Since they play in the same division, the Blues and Blackhawks play each other eight times a season, giving us a chance to compare how the two teams perform across multiple games in each other's arena. When the two teams play in St. Louis, their combined Miss ratio is 0.336, but when they play in Chicago, that drops to 0.188. I can't imagine the style of play varies that much when the same two teams play with only the venue changing, so at least at the very top and bottom of this list, it would appear that personal interpretation is playing a large role. Who knows, maybe things really aren't that bad in Los Angeles and St. Louis, where perhaps the goaltenders are getting shorted the odd save here or there.

The following table shows us how the numbers can vary, based on how those "Shot vs. Missed Shot" calls are made in a typical game wherein the goalie gives up three goals, and faces 35 "total" shots:

GA	Shots	Missed	Save Pct.	Miss Pct.
3	23	12	0.885	0.343
3	24	11	0.889	0.314
3	25	10	0.893	0.286
3	26	9	0.897	0.257
3	27	8	0.900	0.229
3	28	7	0.903	0.200

The impact from some of these variances could be quite significant. If a scorekeeper gave one extra Save per game to the home goaltender through "judgement" (a drop of about 0.030 in these values), that could translate directly into the Save Percentages, enough to knock guys like Nikolai Khabibulin and Tim Thomas from respectable positions in the goaltending stats down to the sub-.900 level, where no netminder wants to linger. Clearly, there is more riding on the Missed Shot than we might have thought before!

Perhaps the most interesting aspect in the team-by-team table lies at the bottom, where the standard deviation is noted. By looking at this data from different angles, we see that it doesn't matter so much who the Road team is, compared to the location of the game in question. The fact that the standard deviation for the Home and Visitors columns are three times that of the Road tells us that when it comes to Missed Shots, the biggest variable isn't who's playing on the ice, but rather who's working the numbers upstairs.

Labels: statistics

Saturday, March 03, 2007

Damn, Cam...

Everybody is in an uproar over the latest suspension-drawing cheap shot, that of New Jersey's Cam Janssen on Toronto's Tomas Kaberle. Janssen drew a 3-game sitdown from the league office, which is well deserved given the lateness of the hit, and the proximity to the boards.

The thing that gets me about all this, however, is the chorus labelling the latest of a series of head-shots that are putting players' careers in danger, if not their lives.

I've seen the replay again and again, and don't really see it as Janssen going head-hunting. It was definitely a late hit, no argument about that, but you had a combination of Kaberle skating backwards near the boards, which left him no leverage to withstand the shot, and in the final moment as Janssen comes in Kaberle ducks his head about a foot (check out the link earlier in this paragraph, and focus on the final few seconds). The resulting impact sends Kaberle careening gruesomely into the boards, and thank goodness he was released from the hospital after evaluation.

It was a late hit, a dirty hit, no question about it, but I just don't see it as an intentional head-shot.

NOTE: The YouTube link was found on Raking Leafs. Someday I'll figure out how to find and embed YouTube videos into my posts...

Technorati Tags: Cam Janssen

Labels: commentary, new jersey devils, toronto maple leafs

Moved

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Friday, March 30, 2007

"Two minutes by yourself, and you feel shame, you know.."

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Predzone forums shut down?

Good seeds and Bad seeds...

Go For the Predz-idents Trophy

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Hooray for PythagenPuck

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

The Need for Speed

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Where are my tickets, Mr. Holland?

Set the Wayback Machine for 1997...

Thursday, March 22, 2007

A Swede Addition

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Is Sid the Best Playmaker in the NHL?

He's Not In Motown Anymore

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

What Would Patrick Do?

Tootoo takes the fall, Predators drop the ball

Saturday, March 17, 2007

We've Got Mail!

Friday, March 16, 2007

Revenge of the Nerd

Thursday, March 15, 2007

They've got a long ways to go, and a short time to get there...

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Deja Vu All Over Again: Predators/Red Wings

More Wings/Predators Action Tonight

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators Liveblog

Battle for the Central - tonight

You've gotta have Hart

Saturday, March 10, 2007

The Saturday morning constitutional

Friday, March 09, 2007

NHL setting the pace once again

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Viva Las Vegas? Viva Las Whalers!

Is T.O.'s publicist available?

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Give & Take

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Predators/Red Wings in Motown

A new one for the blogroll...

Monday, March 05, 2007

A Shot is a Shot is a Shot, right?

Saturday, March 03, 2007

Damn, Cam...