Moved

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Blogs, blogs, everywhere...

From a piece over at Jerseys and Hockey Love, I've made a few additions to the blogroll, bolstering New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders coverage. Check out 2 Man Advantage, The Drive For Five, and The View From Section 317...

It's Good To Be Home

Thanks to emailer Chris for another article inspiration:

I was telling my friend that hockey is one of the few [the only?] sports where the rules state that the home team gets an advantage -- line changes and face-offs. Since the home team gets to put their stick down last for a faceoff, does the home ice advantage help, hurt, or make no difference to the "good face off" men?

Besides hockey, certainly baseball rules give the home team an advantage by batting last, but outside of that, you're right, most sports do try and stay neutral in terms of home & visitor play. To answer Chris's question, I used the Game Summary files from the 2005-06 season, as well as the first 730 games of this season (give or take a couple games) to determine overall faceoff win percentages for the home and visiting team, broken down by location on the ice:

**FO Win% 2005-06**
	Vis	Home
Offensive	49.29%	52.41%
Defensive	47.59%	50.71%
Neutral	49.95%	50.05%
Total	49.00%	51.00%

**FO Win%, Current Season**
	Vis	Home
Offensive	47.73%	52.08%
Defensive	47.92%	52.27%
Neutral	48.77%	51.23%
Total	48.19%	51.81%

Interestingly, we do see a slight dominance by the home team here, that persists from one season to the next. Given an average of roughly 60 faceoffs per game, this translates into a couple extra draws per game being won by the home team. So, Chris, indeed, it seems like the home team does enjoy a benefit in the faceoff circle.

Before we get too excited, however, it should be noted that faceoffs don't seem to be hugely important through most of the game. Javageek over at Hockey Numbers demonstrated that "quick goals" (occuring within 8 seconds of a faceoff) are pretty rare, and I'd tend to agree with that analysis, as at least for a short while after a faceoff, players on the defensive side should be in good position (they haven't had time to make mistakes yet). What I really need to do is revive some of my prior FO work to look at actual shooting percentage versus what Shot Quality would predict. For example, Javageek notes that shooting percentage in the 8-second window is about half the norm, but if most of those shots are 50- to 60-foot slappers, that's not really out of line. I'll see if I can dig into that issue and provide an update in the next couple days...

Labels: faceoffs

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Assessing the Prey in the West

So much for the thinking that the salary cap would prohibit teams from making trades during the season, eh? Yet again, NHL general managers have thrilled fans across the continent today with their Bacchanalian festival of talent-swapping that, for roughly half the league, provides a fresh optimism for the stretch drive not unlike when teams break training camp at the start of the season. Obviously, the volume of analysis and coverage is immense, and there are many spots along the blogroll at right where you can get in-depth, comprehensive breakdowns for all the trades (for starters, consult Spector, Mirtle, Kukla, and just click your way around). For the moment, I thought I'd take a look at things from the perspective of the Nashville Predators, and how the deadline deals affect their standing vis-a-vis their rivals in the Western Conference...

DETROIT: While the acquisition of Todd Bertuzzi raised the most eyebrows, the Jason Williams-for-Kyle Calder trade is what should really help the Red Wings. Williams never took the next step forward that Detroit has been looking for, so in that respect, there is very little downside to the deal. Calder can generate the hard-work goals that the Wings have failed to produce in the last few playoff seasons, and if they can nurse Bertuzzi along to have him ready to contribute within the next few weeks, the Red Wings may well present the most dangerous offense in the West. Just imagine if Bertuzzi could create room on the ice for Datsyuk and Zetterberg like he did for Marcus Naslund and Brendan Morrison in years past! This added toughness up front could pose a challenge for a youthful Nashville blueline corps in the playoffs. Perhaps the best bet for the Predators in that kind of matchup is to play a puck-possession, keepaway type of game much like Detroit used to do to more physical teams in the late '90s.

ANAHEIM: You have to admire Ducks GM Brian Burke for saying that the rent-a-player prices were too high (just as most GM's said just before going ahead and making a deal), and actually sticking to his guns and not making a major acquisition. Something smells a bit fowl, er, foul in Anaheim, however (rimshot, please!) and there's reason to believe that this regular-season powerhouse might be ripe for an early playoff exit. Exhibit A? Their lofty place in the standings is due in large part to 10 OT/SO losses, and without those bonus points, the Ducks would be looking up at both Dallas and San Jose in the Pacific division. Exhibit B? Their style of play will have to change in the playoffs, wherein fighting is kept to a bare minimum. They won't be so quick to intimidate opponents physically if that means giving up lots of power play opportunities, and that's where the Peter Forsberg acquisition is so critical for Nashville. The Predators power-play has been mediocre all season, and unless that changes, opponents won't be shy about roughing them up.

DALLAS: This is the team that perhaps did the best job in the West of setting themselves up for a long playoff run. Starting with the top team defense in the Western Conference, they added a talented winger up front to add a little scoring punch in Ladislav Nagy, then plucked Mattias Norstrom out of Los Angeles, the ideal "veteran defensive blueliner" that teams always covet heading into the playoffs. Whoever faces the Stars will have a tough time avoiding a steady stream of 2-1, 1-0 games that tend to frustrate gifted offensive lineups like Anaheim, Detroit and Nashville.

SAN JOSE: Much like Dallas, they added a scoring winger in Bill Guerin and defensive depth in Craig Rivet. The question with the Sharks is that since they're not as tight defensively as Dallas, will they have the enough offense to carry them through? The key will be to maintain their special teams performance, which has been top-notch all season. For Preds fans, the encouraging news there is that Nashville does a pretty decent job avoiding the penalty kill by staying out of the box.

VANCOUVER: They've been on a nice run lately, but I don't see the Canucks as a major threat. If you look at the Goals For/Goals Against ratio and their Conference win/loss record, there's not much there to suggest their Western counterparts should be concerned. While the playoff debut of goaltender Roberto Luongo is eagerly anticipated, the rest of the team is average at best, and the acquisition of Bryan Smolinski won't change that overnight. Looking at a potential matchup with the Predators, I just don't see the Canucks keeping pace with a steady offensive opponent over the course of a seven-game series.

MINNESOTA: They don't seem to be quite the "gritty little team that can't score" like they have been in years past, but they did just go pick up Dominic Moore, who is, well, a gritty little forward who can't score. Apparently, Wild management is playing the safe road towards building a long-term contender rather than bolster their chances this season. Given the gap between the Northwest and their Central and Pacific opponents, that's probably a wise move.

CALGARY: Aside from adding David Hale for blueline depth, the major moves in Calgary came in earlier weeks, with the acquisitions of Craig Conroy, Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau. Personally, I wonder if making those deals sooner will benefit the Flames in terms of having more time to build familiarity within the team. The results haven't shown so far, as Calgary is a mere 4-4-2 in their last 10 games, but if that chemistry does manifest, watch out - this team could be a real menace come playoff time.

To sum it up from a Nashville perspective, I'd say the Preds ability to win the Central division is key to their playoff hopes. If they win, they are looking at a likely 1st-round matchup with Vancouver or Minnesota, which should be a very winnable series. If not, it's a 4/5 slot versus Dallas or San Jose, neither of which are pleasant prospects.

Labels: calgary flames, dallas stars, detroit red wings, minnesota wild, nashville predators, san jose sharks, trades, vancouver canucks

Monday, February 26, 2007

Is the NHL blazing a trail for other sports leagues?

Google announced today a partnership with the National Basketball Association to provide a new "NBA Channel" on YouTube, featuring game highlights and videos featuring NBA players. The new arrangement isn't as extensive as that between Google and the National Hockey League, which provides full games for online viewing, but marks a significant new addition to YouTube's partnership-driven content.

For once, perhaps we'll hear about the NBA taking marketing tips from the NHL, instead of the other way around? Hey, it's a start!

Labels: commentary

Did I Miss Anything?

Well, I'm back at the helm after a week of vacation, spent mostly without any internet access or hockey viewing (the Little Forecheckers got their first taste of Disney World). I wanted to get a few quick thoughts out here before getting back to a regular posting schedule:

1. I love what Atlanta's doing on the trade front. Many bloggers (Paul Kukla and Tom Benjamin, for example) decry the "rent-a-player" aspect of the NHL, but I think it only hightens the excitement of the final portion of the season, and gives bottom-dwelling teams a chance to get a jump on building towards next season.

2. Here's to hoping we see an Ottawa-Buffalo matchup in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

3. Does anybody really want to win the Northwest division? The way I see it, a 3rd seed in the West means a likely matchup with either Dallas or San Jose. The 7th position, on the other hand, presents a matchup with Anaheim, which has cooled off after its torrid start. Take away the overtime loss "bonus points", and they'd be behind both the Sharks and Stars in the Pacific standings.

4. Oh my, the NHL is looking at distributing the Center Ice TV package over broadband? I might take a serious look at that. I've been a loyal DirecTV customer for almost 10 years, but they're new DVR's are a horrible replacement for the Tivo units that were previously available. Without the hook of Center Ice, I'd be tempted to ditch the dish and go with a cheaper cable alternative.

5. Everyone's got a solution to the problem of selling the NHL in the US, and the first item on most people's list is to get the NHL back on ESPN. You know what? I don't think that would help all that much. Another option to consider would be to tie into the two Superstations, WGN and TBS, to get Chicago Blackhawks and Atlanta Thrashers games televised. Of course, getting the Blackhawks to do anything to build fan interest may require the other owners to send Bill Wirtz for a waterboarding session, but hey, whatever it takes, right?

Labels: commentary

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Off The Grid

Pardon the lack of posts the last few days, Mrs. Forechecker and I took the kids to Florida for a week, and unexpectedly had no internet access! Look for updates starting Monday...

Saturday, February 17, 2007

The Hardest Hit of All

It seems like the most dangerous hits in hockey are those when neither player sees it coming. Just a few minutes ago, Mike Knuble and Brendan Shanahan collided nastily during the 3rd period of today's Rangers/Flyers tilt. Knuble was down for a while and had to be helped off the ice, while Shanny lay motionless for several minutes, and was taken off on a stretcher. He seemed alert and responsive, and was moving his limbs, so hopefully his trip to the hospital is more precautionary than anything else, but that was a scary situation.

Update: During the intermission of the Senators/Thrashers game, word came that Shanahan is alert and seems to be OK at the hospital.

Friday, February 16, 2007

How Much Is That Scorer In The Window?

As we consider possible player moves leading up to the trade deadline, I thought I'd take a look at how some of these prospective pickups have performed against likely playoff opponents. In other words, given a slate of veteran forwards who have been cited in various trade rumors, how many points per game are they racking up against top teams, as opposed to the rest of the league? Such results might provide some insight that makes them more or less attractive to the "buyers" who hope to contend for a Cup this spring.

For this exercise, I'm focusing on the Western Conference. I took a sample of six forwards from teams currently out of the playoffs, who are going to be unrestricted free agents after the season. I then went through their current statistics, and game-by-game logs, to determine their points-per-game production against each of the current Western Conference playoff teams, leaving the remainder in an "Other" category, representing what they've done against the dogs of the West, and the Eastern Conference overall. Within each player's row, I've shaded their most favorable matchup in green, and their least productive in pink. From the inquiring GM's perspective, they might focus on the columns, and see which players perform particularly well against likely playoff opponents.

I kept this within the West, due to the scarcity of interconference play; it's hard to say anything meaningful about a player/opponent pairing when they only play once a year.

(click to enlarge)

Granted, teams won't be able to predict 1st-round matchups until we're closer to the playoffs, but one likely pairing will be Detroit and San Jose, presuming that Nashville and Anaheim win their respective divisions. If I'm Detroit GM Ken Holland, this table might suggest that Bill Guerin is more attractive than Keith Tkachuk, given their relative performance against the Sharks. If you're eyeing a series against the Ducks, the opposite holds true - power forwards like Tkachuk and Ryan Smyth have been more successful than the speedy Guerin. For a team looking to tangle with the Canucks, Smyth and Smolinski appear snakebit, and if preparing to face the Red Wings, none of these guys looks promising.

If I have a chance, I'll post a similar table for selected Eastern Conference players tomorrow. Until then, take a look and feel free to offer constructive criticisms in the comments!

Labels: anaheim ducks, calgary flames, detroit red wings, minnesota wild, nashville predators, offense, san jose sharks, trades, vancouver canucks

Catching up with the Leafs

Leading up to Saturday's celebration at Air Canada Centre, Joe Pelletier has put together a comprehensive look at the Leafs 1967 Stanley Cup Championship squad, including bios of every player on the team.

Be warned - if you surf around the Legends of Hockey network of sites at work, don't blame me if you get fired for losing hours of "productive" time. It's all too easy to click your way through hockey history, one player at a time...

Labels: stanley cup, toronto maple leafs

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Just call him "Bubba" Forsberg...

The news is buzzing around that Nashville has won the Peter Forsberg sweepstakes, offering up a healthy package including Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent, a first round pick and a third round pick in exchange for only a few guaranteed months of Forsberg's services.

While the price is steep in terms of future value (Parent is a solid prospect on the blueline), the Predators aren't giving up a part of their current active roster, and get to hold on prized rookie Alexander Radulov, who lit up the scoreboard during his first weeks in the league, but has cooled off over the last two months. As Spector notes, the Predators were able to offer up elements that they won't miss, while providing Philadelphia pieces that they desperately need. That's the hallmark of savvy dealmaking, and the Nashville front office should be commended on their work.

On the ice, the Preds presumably hope Forsberg can boost a lackluster power play, and it will be interesting to see how the even-strength lines shake out. One player whose role I would think change will be David Legwand, who is enjoying a breakout season, but would slip behind Forsberg and Jason Arnott on the centerman's depth chart. (Question to Avalanche fans - when Paul Kariya had his lousy year in Colorado, did he play much with Forsberg?)

The one thought that keeps rattling around in the back of my brain is that perhaps the Preds aren't done dealing yet. After all, we're still a ways off from the trading deadline. This week Nashville GM David Poile has added two everyday players in Forsberg and Vitaly Vishnevski, and would seem to still have some extra depth that might be worth something on the trade market, should they look to add an elite two-way defenseman, or scoring winger. Vishnevski, after all, adds a nice physical component, but he's not a top-4 kind of blueliner for the Preds, and on the wing, they may want a veteran like Bill Guerin instead of relying on the rookie Radulov for quality minutes during the playoffs.

The other interesting thing to watch will be how the Nashville sports scene reacts. My wife just called me from her cell phone, telling me the news she heard on the radio, and her reaction was, "we've got to get down there to see a game soon." Folks, that's a first since we moved here 18 months ago, so perhaps there's hope!

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

A Fresh Look at Top Wrist Shots

Last fall, when I first took a look at breaking down shooting performance by shot type, I made a grave error by not taking Shot Quality into account. When, for example, I listed the top Wrist Shooters in the league last season, Alex Tanguay rose to the top of the heap, largely because he took the majority of his shots from in close to the net. Today, I thought I'd revise those standings to reflect who actually scores more than expected, as well as provide a look at this year's leaders. After all, with all this shopping going on prior to the trade deadline, do GM's really want to pick up a guy who's not capitalizing on his opportunities?

The tables below show the number of wrist shots taken, the Expected Goals (given average opposing goaltending, based on the distance of those shots), the Actual Goals, and the Difference between Actual and Expected. Our leader from last season, Marian Gaborik, scored 8.5 goals more than you'd expect, for example, given the number of wrist shots he took, and the distance he took them from.

**Top Wrist Shooters, 2005-06**
Shooter	Shots	Exp. Goals	Act. Goals	Diff
Marian GABORIK, MIN	99	10.5	19	8.5
Alexander OVECHKIN, WSH	194	20.3	28	7.7
Ilya KOVALCHUK, ATL	90	8.1	15	6.9
Eric STAAL, CAR	82	9.8	16	6.2
Alex TANGUAY, CGY	72	9.8	16	6.2
Joe NIEUWENDYK, FLA	58	6.0	12	6.0
Ruslan FEDOTENKO, TBL	74	9.1	15	5.9
Mike FISHER, OTT	81	8.1	14	5.9
Jonathan CHEECHOO, S.J	120	16.4	22	5.6
Pavel DATSYUK, DET	47	4.7	10	5.3

And on the opposite end of things, who took lots of wrist shots but failed to score last year?

**Worst Wrist Shooters, 2005-06**
Shooter	Shots	Exp. Goals	Act. Goals	Diff
Michal NYLANDER, NYR	91	13.9	7	-6.9
Tyler ARNASON, CHI/OTT	65	7.6	1	-6.6
Bill GUERIN, STL	69	8.5	3	-5.5
Jaroslav BALASTIK, CBJ	69	6.1	1	-5.1
Dominic MOORE, NYR	58	6.9	2	-4.9
Evgeni ARTYUKHIN, TBL	43	4.9	0	-4.9
John MADDEN, NJD	87	8.8	4	-4.8
Mike RICHARDS, PHI	74	7.7	3	-4.7
Milan HEJDUK, COL	146	17.6	13	-4.6
Alyn MCCAULEY, SJS	54	6.5	2	-4.5

Turning our attention to this year, let's see who's lighting the lamp...

**Top Wrist Shooters, Current Season**
Shooter	Actual Goals	Exp. Goals	Diff
Jordan STAAL, PIT	17	7.38	9.6
Joe SAKIC, COL	17	9.15	7.9
Chris CLARK, WSH	15	7.31	7.7
Mats SUNDIN, TOR	13	5.85	7.2
Sidney CROSBY, PIT	17	10.57	6.4
Kristian HUSELIUS, CGY	10	4.10	5.9
Glen MURRAY, BOS	11	5.16	5.8
Alexander OVECHKIN, WSH	20	14.28	5.7
Jozef STUMPEL, FLA	8	2.79	5.2
Daniel BRIERE, BUF	12	6.79	5.2

Those are some big-time names leading this list, from the rookie phenom Staal to accomplished veterans like Sakic and Sundin. The only carryovers from last year's list are Alex Ovechkin and the Staal parents (for Eric last year, and Jordan this season). One interesting name towards the bottom is that of Jozef Stumpel, currently serving out a sentence with the Florida Panthers. A recent shoulder injury notwithstanding, his ability to play center or wing could present an attractive option to teams looking for offensive depth heading into the playoffs.

Lastly, let's take a look at those shooters who perhaps would be better off passing the puck:

**Worst Wrist Shooters, Current Season**
Shooter	Actual Goals	Exp. Goals	Diff
Jaromir JAGR, NYR	10	16.47	-6.5
Mike RICHARDS, PHI	0	5.46	-5.5
Eric PERRIN, TBL	1	6.18	-5.2
Vaclav PROSPAL, TBL	4	9.18	-5.2
Henrik SEDIN, VAN	3	7.77	-4.8
Dustin BROWN, LAK	3	7.61	-4.6
Milan HEJDUK, COL	9	13.52	-4.5
Chris NEIL, OTT	2	6.40	-4.4
Dominic MOORE, PIT	1	5.07	-4.1
Nikolai ZHERDEV, CBJ	1	4.78	-3.8

Interestingly, Dominic Moore and Milan Hejduk are repeat offenders in this category. With Moore, this fact is even more disturbing when you consider that he went from the Rangers to the Penguins, so at least he's got new personnel to work with.

Labels: offense, shot quality, statistics

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Taking One For The Team

Found on Kukla's Korner, there's an article by Michael Farber over at SI.com discussing the prevalence of blocked shots. Great shot-blocking is definitely an underappreciated art form, and while there are some nice anecdotes in Farber's piece, I was left wondering - other than his impressions, do we really have any evidence that shot-blocking is on the rise?

I took a look through the play-by-play files for this year (up through Sunday night) and last, and found that at indeed, we've seen about a 5% increase in blocked shots per game since last season:

Year	EV	PP	SH	Total
2005-06	18.47	0.67	6.80	25.94
2006-07	20.48	0.58	6.11	27.17

Blocked Shots per game (both teams), broken down by situation.

Interestingly, we've seen a decline in the number of Shorthanded blocks, and a significant jump in the number at Even Strength. I'll have to dig through the pre-lockout files to see if a longer-term trend is in the works...

Labels: blocked shots, defense

Give it a rest, Al

Al Strachan's latest piece over at FoxSports.com is getting the folks on the Nashville Predators message boards all riled up, and I thought about writing a point-by-point rebuttal of Strachan's criticisms of the Predators, mostly focusing on the overstatements, inaccuracies, and Strachan's tabloid-like coverage of the NHL going back through the decades. Then I remembered a saying that my wife's grandmother (a fountain of countless "Southernisms") once laid on us;

"Just remember, you can't out-puke a buzzard."

'nuff said.

Technorati Tags: nashville predators

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Monday, February 12, 2007

Power Play Specialists: Who's Hot, Who's Not?

It seems like everywhere you look in the NHL standings, there are close races as we head into the final quarter of the regular season. Four of the six divisions boast especially close dogfights for the lead, including the tightly packed Northwest which features a three-way logjam between Vancouver, Calgary, and Minnesota. When it comes to the President's Trophy for first overall, we have four teams (Buffalo, Nashville, Detroit and Anaheim) within a handful of points, and in the Eastern Conference, only eight points separate the 4th through 11th teams in the standings. With this breadth and ferocity of competition, consistency becomes essential to picking up those precious points on a night-in, night-out basis. And when it comes to offensive consistency, the requirement in today's whistle-happy NHL is having a productive power play.

So which of the NHL's "designated hitters" are banging home the goals with the man advantage, and which ones are coming up short? Let's focus our Shot Quality tool on the power play, and see which shooters are scoring more (or less) often than would be predicted based on the distance and type of shots being taken.

Shot Quality is simply a measurement representing the portion of similar shots which result in goals (for 11-20 foot wrist shots, for example, that figure is roughly 0.18). Summing up each individual shooter's total Shot Quality values gives us an Expected Goals figure, which we can compare against actual results as a measurement of how well they're executing. Let's first take a look at those shooters who are getting the job done...

**Top 10 Hot Power Play Shooters**
Player	Actual PP Goals	Expected PP Goals	Difference
Sheldon Souray, MTL	14	3.7	10.3
Chris Drury, BUF	14	5.7	8.3
Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL	14	6.6	7.4
Alexander Semin, WSH	13	5.7	7.3
Phillipe Boucher, DAL	10	3.0	7.0
Evgeni Malkin, PIT	13	6.5	6.5
Jason Arnott, NSH	11	4.8	6.2
Teemu Selanne, ANA	17	11.0	6.0
Darcy Tucker, TOR	13	7.2	5.8
Brian Rolston, MIN	11	5.4	5.6

We've got quite a diverse group of hot shooters here - two defensemen enjoying career years in Souray and Boucher, big-time snipers like Kovalchuk and Selanne, and sensational young talents like Semin and Malkin. They also come from a variety of teams up and down the typical power play rankings, which reflect percentage of opportunities converted. And now let's take a look at those players who are shooting, but not scoring...

**Top 10 Coldest Power Play Shooters**
Player	Actual PP Goals	Expected PP Goals	Difference
Jaromir Jagr, NYR	4	8.6	-4.6
Henrik Sedin, VAN	1	5.4	-4.4
Alexei Yashin, NYI	2	5.5	-3.5
Brad Boyes, BOS	0	3.5	-3.5
Mark Parrish, MIN	4	7.1	-3.1
Matt Cullen, NYR	0	2.9	-2.9
Corey Perry, ANA	2	4.7	-2.7
Ryan Craig, TBL	4	6.7	-2.7
Vaclav Prospal, TBL	1	3.6	-2.6
Eric Lindros, DAL	1	3.3	-2.3

The New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning might want to reshuffle their power play units, given the underperformance shown by Jagr, Cullen, Craig and Prospal. One thing to note about measurement against Shot Quality is that individual results might well be related as much to the setup work done by linemates as to whether or not the shooter is hitting his spots well. A proven star like Jagr might warrant trying out another centerman, while a younger player like Craig might see his PP time cut back. As games become increasingly important down the stretch, the last thing a coach can do is stick by his guns and simply wait for unproductive players to turn things around.

Technorati Tags: offense, power play, shot quality

Labels: offense, power play, shot quality

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Followup on modified NHL standings

Rather than duplicate work that's already been done, I wanted to point over to The Ice Block, where they reviewed the 2005-6 final standings, based on the change under discussion, whereby 3 points rather than 2 would be awarded for a victory in regulation.

Again, the point may not be that past or present standings would change significantly, but rather how coaches might or might not change their philosophy going forward in the 3rd period of close games. Perhaps the better option (and I can't recall where I've seen in, hence the lack of a link) is the idea of not awarding a point to teams that lose in overtime, taking away the safety blanket that teams are holding onto so tightly.

Labels: NHL Standings

The End of an Era

You can say this about Eric Belanger - for his entire Nashville Predators career, the team held 1st place overall in the NHL. No wonder the Atlanta Thrashers offered up physical defenseman Vitali Vishnevsky in trade!

In what could be called a Tennessee two-step, Predators GM David Poile has taken a disgruntled misfit (Josef Vasicek) who wasn't playing much anyway into an asset (Vishnevsky) that should help address a lack of physical play on the blue line. His offensive shortcomings are acceptable, given the other talent available on the Nashville bench, as Vishnevsky can be given spot duty to help guys like Kimmo Timonen focus on their game.

If this marks the end of Nashville's dealings leading up the trade deadline, it shows a remarkable confidence by Predators management in their roster. Perhaps the best thing that can be said about these trades is that they're very low-risk, and shouldn't disrupt team chemistry significantly. Whether that confidence is justified will ultimately be measured by how far the Preds go in the postseason this spring...

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

Friday, February 09, 2007

A Cry For Help

Are there any suggestions out there as to how best to present data tables in Blogger? Up until now, I've generally been hand-coding the HTML data in Notepad, which is tedious and prone to error (two typos noted in my shootout goaltending article, ugh). The other option I've tried is copying the data in Excel, pasting into an email, and submitting via Blogger Mobile. The problem there is that if I want to resize anything afterwards, the HTML is so cluttered that the task is nearly impossible. Instead of the width being defined at the top of the table, that attribute appears in every data cell! All I want to do is take my data from Excel, and plop it into a clean HTML table that I can format as needed, and pull into Blogger.

Help me, o internet brainiacs - is there a better way???

Labels: hockey blogs

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Your New NHL Standings

Thanks to Chris for emailing me an article suggestion this time - in light of this morning's story (courtesy of Off Wing Opinion) that the NHL is considering a revision to the points system (awarding 3 points for a regulation time victory, and only 2 for a SO or OT win). While constant tinkering with the rules is something I find annoying, and the addition of another column to the NHL standings would make them even messier than they already are, this may not be such a bad idea. Far too often in the third period, teams which are tied have little incentive to try and win the game, at the risk of giving up a late goal and walking away with zero points. Too many coaches consider it better to play conservatively and wait for overtime, where chances can be taken more freely. I'm not blaming the coaches here - their job is to earn points in the standings, and given the current setup, boring 3rd periods can be the result of proper risk/reward analysis.

So what would the standings look like if there were an extra point at stake during regulation? With that much more reward available, we'd certainly see some different behavior in various games, but just looking at this season so far, here's how the New And Improved NHL Standings would shape up (New Pts = 3*Reg W + 2*OT W + 1*OT L):

Somewhat surprisingly, we really don't see too much change in today's standings as a result of awarding the additional point for a regulation win. San Jose, which was the last team in the NHL team to even go to the shootout this season, leaps ahead of Anaheim in the Pacific division, and Edmonton jumps ahead of Minnesota into the 8th playoff spot, but outside of that, we don't see any wholesale reordering of the divisions or conferences. What this analysis leaves out, obviously, is how the 3rd period of different games would have played out with the additional point on the line. Personally, I think it's an idea worth looking at further. We'll see what happens in the months ahead...

Labels: NHL Standings

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

The Nature of Identity

One thing that struck me in all the furor lately regarding NHL access for bloggers is the issue of identity - many seem to think less of bloggers like Eklund who try to remain anonymous. So I wanted to throw that question out to my readers; does my semi-anonymity* help or hurt the credibility of this blog?

Now, I don't treat my identity as a state secret, and readily share my contact information where needed; for example, with the Fox Sports folks. If the opportunity for NHL access came up, I'd certainly deal openly with them. I maintain a semi-anonymity here for a couple reasons:

1) I don't feel any particular need to see my name in pixels from coast-to-coast, and
2) Frankly, I think "The Forechecker" is a little more memorable than my meatspace ID.

So whattaya think? Should I go ahead and be more open, to establish credibility, or does it not really matter, since I don't claim to have any particular access or information not available to the general public? I'd be interested to get your thoughts...

*And by semi-anonymity, I mean that with a click or two from this page you could easily find my name. The question is whether I need to include it on the front page as well.

Labels: commentary, hockey blogs

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

A few of my favorite things...

After listing this blog at #9 in the Legends of Hockey Blog Power Rankings, Joe asked me to post a similar article, citing my personal must-reads from around the web. I think it's a great idea for all to share those thoughts on occasion, so here goes. One thing to mention straight off is that I enjoy all the sites listed on the blogroll here, and try to visit them weekly at least. Blogs that don't provide much value, or have obtrusive pop-up ads or other internet annoyances don't make it onto the blogroll in the first place. So let's take a look at my daily reads:

Kukla's Korner: The hub of my internet hockey solar system, Paul provides the quick & dirty news from around the web. I'm a longtime user over at Slashdot, the primeval techie website, and Kukla's Korner provides a similar service to the world of hockey - a survey of what's going on, whether in the blogosphere, or the mainstream media outlets.

Mirtle: James Mirtle's blog provides well-written insights from all over the hockeyverse, whether related to journalism, personal profiles, or analysis covering a variety of teams. His "Top Blogs/Full list" links provide a great jumping-off point for anyone looking to find good reading material, although it looks like they haven't been updated for a couple months.

Off Wing Opinion: Don't let the Caps-specific focus scare you, Eric McErlain and the gang offer some of the best & brightest features out there, and are good at getting conversation going between blogs, which is when things really heat up.

American Hockey Fan: Damn I wish I could write funny. These folks do a great job of that, however, making you wish you could join up with them for a beer and a wall full of games on Center Ice. The recent addition of Jen, the American Hockey Fan trainee, has brought us the funniest line I've seen all season. This from watching a game with Boston fan Ritch, while Jen is learning to love the Sabres:

"I have to admit, it was more than a little heartbreaking to
see the Bruins do such a sexy little dance for Ritch before blueballing him in
the second and third periods..."

Behind the Jersey: She's taking Econ 101 at Michigan (and I was an Econ major there), so she's already got two things working for her in my book. Besides that, however, Christy puts some serious effort into providing quality pieces covering the Red Wings, and the state of the league in general, particularly around the issue of fighting. I get the feeling that we're watching a professional career in the making over at BtJ.

Battle of Alberta: They're sarcastic, embittered, and gloriously provincial. One of the greatest things about being a fan of any sport is fostering a heated rivalry, and the folks at BoA really keep those fires burning.

Theory of Ice: Another blogger who makes me feel like a high-school English flunkie when I read her posts. ToI provides the leisurely paced mental exercises that you'd never see in a mainstream media outlet, and thus provides a perfect example of how blogging brings fresh perspectives to the world of hockey fandom.

Technorati Tags: hockey blogs

Labels: hockey blogs

Monday, February 05, 2007

Putting Goalies on the Spot

Last week I dug into the offensive end of NHL shootouts, so now we need to give the goaltenders their due. As we consider goaltender success during the shootout, a significant aspect to contend with is the quantity of Missed Shots (roughly one out of eight shootout attempts misses the net entirely). Within the table below, I'm including them in a "Stop Pct.", since by definition, Missed Shots aren't included in a goaltender's regular save percentage. When it comes to the shootout, however, I'm inclined to give the netminder some credit for forcing the shooter into an untenable option. So let's get to the results, including the 2005-06 season, and this year up through the games of February 4:

**Top 10 SO Goalies by Stop Pct.**
Goaltender	SO Attempts	SO Goals	Saves	Missed	Stop Pct.
Marc Denis, TBL	32	5	24	3	.844
Kari Lehtonen, ATL	39	7	28	4	.821
Henrik Lundqvist, NYR	63	12	40	11	.810
Rick DiPietro, NYI	67	16	48	3	.761
Tim Thomas, BOS	54	13	39	2	.759
Pascal LeClaire, CBJ	33	8	20	5	.758
Manny Fernandez, MIN	51	13	29	9	.745
Ryan Miller, BUF	43	11	25	7	.744
Marty Turco, DAL	55	15	29	11	.727
Mathieu Garon, LAK	29	8	19	2	.724

Note: Minimum 25 SO attempts faced.
EDIT: Corrected Ryan Miller's missed shots figure to 7, rather than 11 (typo). Thanks to Tim for the heads-up email.

Just as in the offensive analysis, we see a somewhat unexpected bunch of names here. None of the current Top 10 leaders in Save Percentage show up in this leaderboard.

And just as we broke down our shooters by nationality, let's take a look at the goaltending:

**Stop Pct. by Country**
Goaltender	SO Attempts	SO Goals	Saves	Missed	Stop Pct.
Sweden	116	21	73	22	.819
Switzerland	61	18	31	12	.705
USA	279	84	165	30	.699
Canada	832	277	439	116	.667
Russia	44	16	24	4	.636
Czech Rep.	62	23	29	10	.629
South Africa	58	22	27	9	.621
Finland	186	74	90	22	.602
Slovakia	30	15	11	4	.500

Note: Minimum 25 SO attempts faced.

If you recall from last week's look at the shooters, the Finns were well out ahead of the rest of the pack. In goal, however, it's an entirely different story (and I'd bet they're not too happy about seeing the Swedes way up at the top). Perhaps the reason those Finnish shooters are performing so well is that they've got so much confidence after competing against lousy Finnish goaltenders? Hey, it's a theory...

Now here's where things get real interesting. Much as in baseball, where managers often pinch-hit to obtain the proper lefty/righty matchup between batter and pitcher, a detailed analysis here may suggest that NHL coaches should take just such a consideration when selecting snipers for the shootout. The table below shows shootout results based on the handedness of the shooter, versus the catching hand of the goaltender. Among goaltenders, about 90% of this action involves left-handed catching gloves, and among shooters, lefties make up about two-thirds. What the numbers suggest here is that coaches should, in general, select players who shoot with the same hand that the opposing goalie catches with. Against left-handed catchers, lefty shooters have a 9.1% better shooting percentage (37.3 - 28.2), and against right-handed catchers, right-handed shooters boast a 7.8% edge (32.8 - 25.0). Unless you've got one of the elite SO artists like Slava Kozlov, Jussi Jokinen, Paul Kariya, or a handful of others, NHL coaches would be wise to take advantage of this aspect of the matchup issue. As always, feel free to print out these results, and take them with you to the rink so you can yell them to the coach during crunch time. I'm sure he'll thank you!

**Lefty/Righty SO Matchup Matrix**
Matchup	SO Attempts	SO Goals	Shoot Pct.
L Shoot/L Goalie	971	362	37.3%
L Shoot/R Goalie	108	27	25.0%
R Shoot/L Goalie	577	163	28.2%
R Shoot/R Goalie	58	19	32.8%

Last, but not least... well, actually last and least, we present our list of the worst goaltending performers in the shootout. When you see these guys in the opposing net, feel free to chalk up that extra point in the standings:

**Bottom 10 SO Goalies by Stop Pct.**
Goaltender	SO Attempts	SO Goals	Saves	Missed	Stop Pct.
Peter Budaj, COL	30	15	11	4	.500
Mikka Kiprusoff, CGY	33	16	11	6	.515
Dwayne Roloson, EDM	32	15	12	5	.531
Curtis Sanford, STL	27	12	13	2	.556
Marc-Andre Fleury, PIT	25	11	14	0	.560
Alexander Auld, FLA	30	13	13	4	.567
Dominik Hasek, DET	27	11	10	6	.593
Ed Belfour, FLA	34	13	19	2	.618
Olaf Kolzig, WSH	58	22	27	9	.621
Nikolai Khabibulin, CHI	37	13	20	4	.649

Note: Minimum 25 SO attempts faced.
EDIT: Yikes! Another typo! Hasek faced 27 attempts, not 10 as originally posted. Thanks to Ian for holding my toes to the fire...

Labels: defense, goaltending, shootouts

A nice way to start the week

Since my daughter gave me a case of the Strep Throat that she suffered from last week, I'm settling in for a day of rest around the house (the bright side being I can get some stuff done here). What a pleasant surprise, then, to fire up the laptop and find a nice email from Joe Pelletier over at the amazing Legends of Hockey network of sites (if you haven't visited there before, prepare to lose an hour or two on a trip through hockey history). Anyways, Joe has assembled his Blog Power Rankings, and this humble web-tome came in at #9. Many thanks to Joe for his kind words, and watch out, NHLDigest.com, I'm gunning for you...

Technorati Tags: hockey blogs

Labels: hockey blogs

Sunday, February 04, 2007

When in doubt, fight it out...

This comes to us from Kukla this morning: a vote over at Canada.com on the All-Time greatest fighters in NHL history. For the record, here's how I voted in the first round, where 32 knuckle-dusters square off :

Bob Probert over Ted Lindsay,
Jack Carlson over Clark Gillies,
Dave Schultz over John Kordic,
Tony Twist over Wendel Clarke,
Chris Nilan over Georges Laraque,
Tiger Williams over Tie Domi,
Donald Brashear over Chris Simon,
Dave Semenko over Cam Neely,
Dave Brown over Dave Manson,
Terry O'Reilly over Stu Grimson,
Rob Ray over John Ferguson,
Gordie Howe over Curt Fraser,
Joe Kocur over Orland Kurtenbach,
Troy Crowder over Stan Jonathan,
Gino Odjick over Zdeno Chara,
Marty McSorley over John Wensink.

And of course, I have detailed statistical analysis behind each of these picks that makes them beyond all reasonable doubt.

NOT! Just head over there and have some fun...

Labels: hockey fights

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Will the Predators Strike Again?

One thing I'm going to try and do more of as we head towards the playoffs is to publish a few more conventional posts related to the Nashville Predators. While I'm a Red Wings fan by birthright, I've always been impressed with the methodical patience and progress of the Predators organization over the years, and having lived in the Nashville area for about 18 months now, I've come to the conclusion that the Predators might just be hockey's best kept secret. OK, maybe not a total secret, as they get an occasional piece that notes their success this year. But what's happened over the last ten years in the Music City is flat-out remarkable.

Consider, for example, the management - since the summer of 1997, the Predators have had only one GM (David Poile) and one coach (Barry Trotz). How many franchises across all the major professional sports can boast such stability? And no, we're not talking about Matt Millen-style stability, where an owner hangs on to a front-office hire for no discernable reason. The Predators have had a specific philosophy guiding their personnel decisions and coaching from the start (develop from within and hustle, hustle, hustle), and it yielded slow, steady improvement year over year. With the advent of a totally different labor market in light of the new CBA, they've adjusted that philosophy by adding the stars (like Jason Arnott and Paul Kariya) that can lead a deep roster of diverse role players into the NHL's elite territory.

The current lineup certainly seems worthy of Stanley Cup contention - the forwards boast unparalleled depth, the defense helps launch the attack and is punching in some goals of their own, and the goaltending has been spectacular all season long, whether it's been Tomas Vokoun or Chris Mason in net. Now that the proverbial window has opened on Nashville's championship chances, however, what pieces might they look to add in anticipation of an intense playoff run?

To me, the obvious hole appears to be the lack of a physical, veteran presence on the blue line. With all that youth and offensive production, I just have visions of critical misplays while trying to hold a late lead that can doom a team's playoff hopes. So who's out there that might fit the bill? One prominent name featured in many trade rumors is Brad Stuart over in Boston. I've never been a big fan of Stuart, though, as he seems to be one of those guys about whom we hear that dominance is "just around the corner". One thing working in his favor is price. Stuart's impending free agency means that budget-wary teams like Nashville could take a chance on him, and if it doesn't work out, just let him walk away over the summer.

On the opposite end of the salary scale would be Philadelphia's Derian Hatcher. Now, before you spit your drink all over the computer screen at this laughable suggestion, here me out: Hatcher is still big, beefy, and has been the captain of a Cup-winning team. His glacial speed is a liability, but for the role I'm envisioning (PK duty mostly), that weakness is minimized. And for those who laugh at Hatcher's horrifying plus/minus figure this year (he's on pace for a -34), I'd point out that plus/minus is largely dependent on team play, which has been downright gruesome in Philly this year. Surround Hatcher with speedy, disciplined players and he could thrive (recall how Larry Murphy changed from goat to hero after being traded from Toronto to Detroit in the late 90's). Now, the unavoidable problem with Derian Hatcher is his contract. He's still got two more seasons at $3.5 million coming to him, which would presumably put him out of reach.

Spector mentions that the Canucks might be shopping Sami Salo, who, like Brad Stuart, is also going to be a free agent this summer. Salo, at age 32, certainly has the experience and proven performance that could help the Preds, but he's no banger, that's for sure.

Which brings us perhaps to the best option available - although, it also represents the biggest gamble. The L.A. Kings have been caught in a tailspin for months now, and dealing away veteran defender Rob Blake might be possible. The Preds would have to pay a price to get him, for sure, and his 2007-8 $6 million salary would be a tough pill for Nashville to swallow, considering that they have two major free agents of their own to sign over the summer (Paul Kariya and Kimmo Timonen). If they could find a way to make all the numbers fit under the cap, however, Blake would make an ideal addition. He's huge, physical, talented, and at the stage of his career where the chances for another Stanley Cup championship are getting fewer and farther between.

Over the last two years, we've seen Nashville management add top players where appropriate to put the team in the position to contend. Now that they've got their chance at greatness, will they pull the trigger on another such deal, or will they stand pat, confident in their cards they've been dealt?

Labels: commentary, nashville predators

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Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Blogs, blogs, everywhere...

It's Good To Be Home

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Assessing the Prey in the West

Monday, February 26, 2007

Is the NHL blazing a trail for other sports leagues?

Did I Miss Anything?

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Off The Grid

Saturday, February 17, 2007

The Hardest Hit of All

Friday, February 16, 2007

How Much Is That Scorer In The Window?

Catching up with the Leafs

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Just call him "Bubba" Forsberg...

A Fresh Look at Top Wrist Shots

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Taking One For The Team

Give it a rest, Al

Monday, February 12, 2007

Power Play Specialists: Who's Hot, Who's Not?

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Followup on modified NHL standings

The End of an Era

Friday, February 09, 2007

A Cry For Help

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Your New NHL Standings

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

The Nature of Identity

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

A few of my favorite things...

Monday, February 05, 2007

Putting Goalies on the Spot

A nice way to start the week

Sunday, February 04, 2007

When in doubt, fight it out...

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Will the Predators Strike Again?