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Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Getting Serious About Shootouts

Perhaps the most significant difference between pre- and post-lockout NHL action is the shootout, the crowd-pleasing finish to an otherwise tied game that allows one team to skate off in victory, and the other to still take home a point in the standings for their night's work. We've seen some incredible highlights come out of the shootout, like Brian Rolston's slapshot, Pavel Datsyuk's incredible deke, or perhaps the ultimate highlight-reel play, Marek Malik's between-the-legs dazzler. As much as many in the sports media criticize the NHL for perceived marketing failures, the adoption of the shootout has provided a great opportunity for hockey to sneak into the highlight packages on nightly sports shows across the country.

Besides sheer entertainment value, however, the shootout has turned into one of the most significant factors in the race for the playoffs. Last year, for example, if you took away the points in the standings from shootout victories, Toronto rather than Tampa Bay would have snagged the final playoff spot in the East, and Philadelphia, not New Jersey, would have won the Atlantic division. Out in the West, the Edmonton Oilers would never have made their run to the Stanley Cup Finals, as Vancouver would have instead captured the 8th seed. Just think, if the Canucks actually won a series or even two last spring, would they have undergone the massive changes that have them positioned to win the Northwest this time around? As arbitrary as some people seem to think the shootout is, the bottom line is that when precious points are on the line, that means jobs, even careers, can hang in the balance. As such, they certainly merit a greater degree of focus.

Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of the shootout is the prominence given to relatively unknown players, and the lack of success experienced by a host of well-known scorers. Take for example the league's leading scorer, Sid Crosby; how is he faring in shootouts? How about dead last in the NHL, with 0 goals on 6 attempts this year! Last season's bottom-dwellers from an individual perspective include Joe Sakic, Marian Gaborik, Sergei Fedorov, and Martin St. Louis. Clearly, scoring in the shootout is a much different endeavor than during regular gameplay. So the question becomes, what sort of trends can we identify relative to the shootout, and how might it impact the stretch drive heading into the playoffs?

First off, let's look at some of the baseline numbers. Covering both last season and this, shooters score about 33% of the time, they miss the net on 13% of shots, and goalies make a save otherwise. The percentage splits have stayed much the same as they were last year:

SO Shot Results By Season
Season	Goal	Miss	Save
2005-06	33.9%	13.7%	52.5%
2006-07	32.6%	13.3%	54.1%
Total	33.3%	13.5%	53.1%

Since most shooters only get a handful of shootout opportunities during a season (only ten players had ten attempts or more all last year), it's hard to make any definitive judgements on the broad majority of NHL shooters in terms of ability - they just haven't had the chance to prove themselves. So for the purposes of this discussion, we'll focus on those player with at least 10 SO attempts here in the post-lockout era:

Top 10 SO Shooters by Pct
Player	SO Goals	Shots	Pct
Slava Kozlov, ATL	12	15	80.0%
Jussi Jokinen, DAL	15	21	71.4%
Paul Kariya, NSH	8	12	66.7%
Miroslav Satan, NYI	10	16	62.5%
Mikko Koivu, MIN	11	18	61.1%
Petr Sykora, EDM	6	10	60.0%
Sergei Zubov, DAL	11	19	57.9%
Viktor Kozlov, NYI	10	18	55.6%
Jason Williams, DET	6	11	54.5%
Daniel Briere, BUF	7	13	53.8%

Note: Covers 2005-6 and current season combined, minimum 10 attempts.

A few items jump out from this leaderboard. First off, you have a surprise in the presence of a defenseman in Sergei Zubov. Granted, he has always been an elite offensive blueliner, but common wisdom would suggest that your best finishers would be up front. The other prominent characteristic here is the high proportion of European players - so let's take a look at how shooters fare, based on their country of origin:

SO Shooting Pct by Country
Country	Goals	Shots	Pct
Finland	49	95	51.6%
Slovakia	34	79	43.0%

Russia6816341.7%USA5013736.5%Canada15651830.1%Czech4414929.5%Sweden2910228.4%

Now, one could make an argument that perhaps the Canadians are getting a bad rap here, due to the high number of shots taken compared to the other countries - one could say that only the top scorers come from Europe to play in the NHL, and that since Canadians make up the bulk of the league, especially in "depth" players, that this muddies their overall totals. If we were looking at overall shooting percentage I might buy into that, but since we're talking about shootouts, which generally only involve a few players from each team, coaches can certainly pick the players they believe can score, and not have to fill spots with 3rd or 4th line players. It's interesting to see the Finns performing so well in this area, as the quick & dirty appraisal you usually hear about Finnish players is that they are disciplined, defensive-minded players (think Esa Tikanen and Jere Lehtinen rather than Teemu Selanne).

I'll follow up with more shootout analysis in the days ahead, starting with a look from the goaltending perspective. Until then, I'll leave you with one more table for your amusement & edification:

Worst SO Shooting Pct
Player	Goals	Shots	Pct
Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL	1	13	7.7%
Jarome Iginla, CGY	1	10	10.0%
Sidney Crosby, PIT	2	12	16.7%
Jaromir Jagr, NYR	2	11	18.2%
Nathan Horton, FLA	2	11	18.2%
Alexei Yashin, NYI	2	10	20.0%
Radim Vrbata, CHI	2	10	20.0%
Joe Sakic, COL	3	13	23.1%
Patrice Bergeron, BOS	4	16	25.0%
Patrik Elias, NJD	3	12	25.0%

Note: Covers 2005-6 and current season combined, minimum 10 attempts.

Labels: offense, shootouts, statistics

Monday, January 29, 2007

It's a good ole hockey meme...

This got started yesterday by Jes Golbez. Here's my take...

If I Were a Hockey Player:

Team: Detroit Red Wings
Uniform Number: 35
Position: Right Wing
Nickname: Good question - my name doesn't lend itself to the "ie" effect, as in Dougie, Stevie, etc.
Dream Linemates: Brendan Shanahan on LW, Joe Sakic at C.
Rounding out the PP: Nick Lidstrom and Zdeno Chara (it would be hilarious just to stand on the ice next to him).
Job: Forechecking (duh!), and working the crease for rebounds & tips.
Signature Move: Quick shots of the faceoff in the offensive zone.
Strengths: Hustle, passing, defensive anticipation.
Weaknessess: Shooting, skating.
Injury Problems? A 20-pound growth that's congealed around my midsection since my college days. Leading medical researchers call it a "spare tire", or "lovehandles".
Equipment: Tattered and well-worn padding, a clunky Cooper helmet, and an old-school Torspo stick with plenty of "heft". All the better for the jousting in front of the net...
Nemesis: Whichever young punk is trying to win my spot on that dream line.
Scandal Involvement: Rabble-rousing within the NHLPA to get them to realize they're a billion-dollar organization, not just a bunch of dumb jocks needing a guy in a suit.
Who I'd face in the Stanley Cup Finals: Philadelphia Flyers - there's just something satisfying about watching Bobby Clarke fail.
What I'd do with the Stanley Cup after our victory: Fill it up with coney sauce, fire up the grill, and serve!
Would the media love me or hate me? Hate me - I'd go crazy if I had to answer their largely inane questions one day after another...

Labels: meme

Back in my day, we didn't call 'em "Bloggers..."

It looks like there was another round of discussions lately on the issue of press-style access that bloggers should or should not receive from the NHL. This brought to mind my experience from the mid- to late-1990's, writing for the long lost website In the Crease, where I used to write regular columns, mostly covering the Red Wings. Back then we didn't have the handy word "Blog" to use, so instead we had awkward terms like "internet magazine", or "webzine", etc. It was great fun, however, as most things were in the early days of the internet; with the thrill of seeing your stuff mocked up professionally, and receiving feedback from readers all over the world.

Then I remembered the Internet Archive Wayback Machine, a handy way of peeking back through the curtain of time to see websites as they used to be. Sure enough, In the Crease is in there, and in one of the oldest issues they have captured there, is a piece I wrote after getting my first press pass to an NHL game. This wasn't just any old game, however, it was March 26, 1997, when the Colorado Avalanche came to Detroit to face the Red Wings, in Claude Lemiuex's first visit to Hockeytown after the infamous Kris Draper hit. That was one of the greatest games I've ever seen, and while the writing's not very sharp in my piece (there was no editing, just submit and post), it was fun to find it still out there in the Ether. I thought it had been lost in the sands of time!

Anyways, on the issue of press access - the Red Wings treated me like a professional, so I acted like one. I dressed "business casual", brought a laptop (no internet access back then, so it was a glorified portable typewriter), and tried not to let my jaw hit the floor when legends like Mark Howe or Slava Fetisov walked by. In the locker room after the game, I generally stayed on the fringes of the big media scrums, staying out of the way of the newspaper guys working on deadline, and so only managed to get a couple questions in, preferring instead to soak in the atmosphere and learn how the whole situation worked.

Towards the end, I hung around as one reporter wrapped up his questions for Patrick Roy, who was getting out of his gear and was ready to hit the showers. I finally worked up enough nerve to ask, "Patrick, since you're known for wearing those extra-large jerseys, did that hamper you at all during the fight with Vernon?" I didn't want to ask some lame "how do you feel" question, and I think the Hall of Famer appreciated the angle. He cracked a bit of a smile, and said, "actually, yeah" as he headed off.

When it comes to today's bloggers, the issues are still the same. The NHL needs to give priority to the pros, but where accomodations exist, making room for bloggers only makes mutual sense. It helps grow the fanbase in a "grassroots" fashion, and I would think a sound principle for most teams to use would be to perhaps have two classifications for such press requests; a "quasi-professional" relationship with more prominent bloggers like Kukla, McErlain, and others with proven track records and steady readership, and a secondary level where they bring in a wider selection of bloggers for one or two special events a year. For the fans, it provides another way to get closer to the team, and for the teams, it's the ultimate cheap-date PR opportunity. Perhaps I need to put in a call to the Predators...

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Thank Goodness for "Revert to Classic"

Wow, what a nightmare - just spent the last couple hours wrestling with "new Blogger's" layout functionality, trying to migrate this blog into their new tool. At least I was able to find the "Revert to Classic" button, and bring things back to status quo. It may not be sexy, but at least I didn't lose everything. For a while, it looked like I was going to have to rework every blogroll, sidebar item, etc. Blech.

Someday I'll try improving the visual aspects of this site, but not this way...

Pardon the Dust

I don't know why I decided to do this tonight, but I'm upgrading to "new Blogger's" templates, which basically wiped out a lot of my original formatting, blogroll, etc. Please be patient while the remodeling continues...

Setting aside the numbers for a moment...

I wanted to point out a wonderful, well-written meditation on the nature of violence in hockey over at Theory of Ice, making the point that hockey's tough guys weren't always that way...

Labels: commentary

Friday, January 26, 2007

Those Especially Special Teams

There I was, idly clicking my way around the hockey blogosphere, when, like the Bat Signal cast against the cloudy skies of Gotham, I spied a call for help. At the end of a post covering the All-Star Game and how perhaps it might be improved, Ritch from American Hockey Fan had a question...

Why not have the best Powerplay in the league face off against the best PK? Who would that be, I wonder? San Jose vs. Montreal, maybe? Perhaps the Forechecker will come to my aid again.

Fear not, good netizen - I'm always in need of topical inspiration, so let's take a look...

The NHL stat in this area merely covers percentage of opportunities converted. On that front, San Jose has the top power play (25.8%), and Vancouver the top penalty kill (88.4%). There, we have our answer, right? If we did, this would be an awfully short piece, that's for sure.

A great source of special teams statistics can be found over at mc79hockey.com, where you can find a breakdown of teams on a 60-minute basis (note: mc79hockey's stats are currently updated through Game 472, which is a few weeks old). In other words, given 60 minutes of power play time, it shows how many shots and goals are being racked up (for and against) by the various teams. Looking at power play numbers as an example, if you take Goals For/60 Minutes, and subtract Goals Against/60 Minutes (due to shorthanded goals allowed), you get a Goal Differential/60 Minutes. This gets us past the two major flaws in the NHL's basic power play figures, which only reflect percentage of opportunities converted. First, due to penalties being called at different times, you can have a PP lasting only a few seconds, but it counts in the NHL figure just as if it was a full five-minute major. Therefore, normalizing the power play output against a standard time period gives a better picture of actual production. Secondly, there is no consideration for a sloppy power play that gives up shorthanded goals, or an opportunistic PK that scores some of their own. I took the liberty of updating the Goal Differential/60 Minutes figure, which is indicated in the table below:

Team	PP Goals For	PP Goals Against	PP Time	PP Diff/ 60 Min
San Jose Sharks	63	2	391:54	9.34
Montreal Canadiens	51	3	347:04	8.30
Anaheim Ducks	55	1	407:24	7.95
New York Rangers	44	1	407:23	6.33
Florida Panthers	41	3	360:23	6.33
Toronto Maple Leafs	50	5	431:11	6.26
Dallas Stars	47	4	429:43	6.00
Pittsburgh Penguins	53	7	462:12	5.97
Boston Bruins	45	8	372:29	5.96
Colorado Avalanche	44	6	391:19	5.83
Nashville Predators	45	2	444:30	5.80
Los Angeles Kings	47	4	444:35	5.80
Washington Capitals	45	5	430:23	5.58
Tampa Bay Lightning	47	7	436:29	5.50
Detroit Red Wings	42	5	404:20	5.49
Vancouver Canucks	45	6	431:35	5.42
New York Islanders	35	4	344:47	5.39
New Jersey Devils	42	7	390:12	5.38
Carolina Hurricanes	46	5	471:08	5.22
Edmonton Oilers	38	3	418:18	5.02
Columbus Blue Jackets	45	6	466:22	5.02
Ottawa Senators	45	10	422:37	4.97
Atlanta Thrashers	42	7	437:54	4.80
Minnesota Wild	41	7	427:18	4.77
Calgary Flames	36	4	413:47	4.64
Buffalo Sabres	42	7	457:26	4.59
St. Louis Blues	31	3	373:55	4.49
Phoenix Coyotes	38	8	415:45	4.33
Philadelphia Flyers	33	7	390:19	4.00
Chicago Blackhawks	23	3	395:59	3.03

Indeed, San Jose is way out in front with the man advantage, followed by Montreal, Anaheim, and then the bulk of the NHL grouped in a range from just under 5.00 to 6.33 Goals per 60 Minutes. You really see the Goal Differential factor come into play towards the bottom of these standings, where a team like Edmonton jumps several places compared to their typical NHL Power Play ranking, because the other teams around them give up so many more shorthanded goals. Similarly, those young Pittsburgh Penguins have given up seven shorthanded scores against, which drops them behind four other teams with fewer PP Goals For.

On the PK side, we see Montreal on top (1st in PK, 2nd in PP, no wonder they're doing so well), followed by Minnesota and Vancouver as the only teams with a Goal Differential/60 Minutes better than -4.00. According to the typical Penalty Killing percentage, the Canadiens would only be third, but on the strength of 10* shorthanded goals, they, along with the Wild (with 8 SH goals) pull ahead of the Canucks, who only have two such scores.

Team	PK Goals Against	PK Goals For	PK Time	Goal Diff/ 60 Min
Montreal Canadiens	35	10	444:26	-3.38
Minnesota Wild	31	8	386:43	-3.57
Vancouver Canucks	32	2	466:25	-3.86
Edmonton Oilers	30	3	399:29	-4.06
Nashville Predators	35	7	413:03	-4.07
New Jersey Devils	22	1	287:06	-4.39
Anaheim Ducks	36	3	425:16	-4.66
Philadelphia Flyers	39	6	417:57	-4.74
Carolina Hurricanes	40	6	429:17	-4.75
Chicago Blackhawks	45	7	459:30	-4.96
Ottawa Senators	39	6	392:08	-5.05
Detroit Red Wings	46	8	429:13	-5.31
Florida Panthers	46	4	472:36	-5.33
San Jose Sharks	33	3	330:14	-5.45
New York Rangers	44	5	425:14	-5.50
St. Louis Blues	46	4	450:33	-5.59
Calgary Flames	50	11	416:00	-5.63
Columbus Blue Jackets	46	4	447:11	-5.64
Washington Capitals	47	8	413:09	-5.66
Dallas Stars	42	2	417:36	-5.75
Pittsburgh Penguins	51	8	413:57	-6.23
Boston Bruins	47	5	394:24	-6.39
Buffalo Sabres	46	2	403:04	-6.55
Atlanta Thrashers	54	6	438:03	-6.57
Colorado Avalanche	44	3	368:36	-6.67
New York Islanders	54	2	454:10	-6.87
Phoenix Coyotes	56	3	446:57	-7.11
Toronto Maple Leafs	58	3	447:39	-7.37
Tampa Bay Lightning	47	6	316:28	-7.77
Los Angeles Kings	60	4	412:17	-8.15

So, Ritch, in your dream matchup of top power play vs. top penalty kill, I'd indeed recommend pitting San Jose against Montreal. A possible extension of this analysis could look into the Shot Quality produced during these situations, to help separate the performance of the goaltender from that of the forwards and defense. For example, even though the Nashville Predators are fifth in this PK Ranking, I'd suspect much of the credit should go to Tomas Vokoun and Chris Mason, who have been spectacular all season long. On the opposite end of that scale, we may find that there are skaters on teams at the bottom of these rankings that are giving up relatively few scoring opportunities, but goaltending (hello, L.A.) is letting them down - and a savvy GM might want to look for that kind of player to help complement a team that hopes to make a run in the playoffs this spring.

*remember, I tend not to count empty-net scores in my analysis.

Labels: defense, montreal canadiens, offense, penalty, power play, san jose sharks

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Taking In The All Star Game

Since, as the old saying goes, "opinions are like blogs, everybody's got one", here's my thoughts after catching tonight's NHL All-Star Game from Dallas:

The Rail-Cam is a great idea, but it needs further refinement. Perhaps if they would run it back and forth along a wire suspended higher in the air than the top of the glass, it would not only provide a better viewing angle (most shots are too tight), but the camera itself wouldn't get in the way as much during wider shots.
The live commentary from Dallas Stars goaltender Marty Turco throughout the third period was some of the best TV hockey I've seen in a long, long time.
The on-air interviews need to provide more opportunity for the players to show their personality and have some fun. Good example - Christine Simpson presenting Alex Ovechkin with a jumbo-size bag of potato chips, in a nod to his recent TV commercial, and Alex mugging like he was going to chow down right there on the bench. Bad example - one of the ice reporters for Versus asking Ovechkin a long, rambling question during the Skills Competition that left the neophyte English speaker confused and stumbling.
Rick Nash looks downright scary when he gets position on a defender and drives to the net. His size and reach are real difference-makers.
The overall action seemed to move along at a good pace, particularly later in the game.
Philippe Boucher's intermission interview made a great point about the importance of family to NHL players, who recognize the sacrifices made by parents or siblings.
(Edit 1/25/07) I forgot to mention initially that I thought the new jerseys looked great. As far as appearance, the only major difference I saw was that they're utilizing the side of the jersey as part of the design, where previously only the front and back were thought of.

All in all, it was a good night for hockey. And you know, maybe holding it during the week ain't such a bad thing after all.

Labels: All-Star, commentary

Top Goal Scorers: Are they Hot or Not?

Today's tidbit comes courtesy of a fleeting inspiration while compiling some other Shot Quality data. I thought I'd take a snapshot of the Top 50 Goal Scorers at the current time, and list what their Expected Goals figure shows, based on the quantity and quality of the shots they're taking. I've provided that list below, along with a "Hot or Not" factor which is merely Actual Goals/Expected, so starting with Martin St. Louis, he's scored 20% more goals than you'd expect from basic Shot Quality analysis*. The intention is simply to point out which players are the hottest right now (shaded pink), and which are actually underscoring (shaded blue) their predicted value. Now granted, since I'm looking at the Top 50 scorers, someone who is excessively "cold" wouldn't even show up on this list. Some of the players who fell into that category include Detroit's Tomas Holmstrom (13 goals vs. 18.61 expected) and Anaheim's Andy McDonald (12 goals vs. 17.67 expected).

Player	Actual Goals	Exp. Goals	Hot Or Not
Martin St. Louis, TAM	30	25.05	1.20
Teemu Selanne, ANA	30	23.07	1.30
Marian Hossa, ATL	28	27.64	1.01
Dany Heatley, OTT	28	23.96	1.17
Vincent Lecavalier, TAM	28	19.02	1.47
Alexander Ovechkin, WSH	27	29.49	0.92
Alexander Semin, WSH	27	13.33	2.03
Sidney Crosby, PIT	24	15.25	1.57
Jason Blake, NYI	23	19.45	1.18
Evgeni Malkin, PIT	23	17.30	1.33
Brian Rolston, MIN	23	16.63	1.38
Chris Drury, BUF	23	15.83	1.45
Martin Straka, NYR	23	15.44	1.49
Ryan Smyth, EDM	23	13.85	1.66
Olli Jokinen, FLA	22	23.49	0.94
Brendan Shanahan, NYR	22	22.06	1.00
Thomas Vanek, BUF	22	19.83	1.11
Simon Gagne, PHI	22	18.91	1.16
Glen Murray, BOS	22	17.68	1.24
Patrick Marleau, SJS	22	17.62	1.25
Justin Williams, CAR	22	17.61	1.25
Alexander Frolov, LAK	22	16.59	1.33
Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL	21	21.37	0.98
Eric Staal, CAR	21	19.88	1.06
Brian Gionta, NJD	21	19.32	1.09
Jarome Iginla, CGY	21	15.43	1.36
Maxim Afinogenov, BUF	21	12.88	1.63
Bill Guerin, STL	20	16.39	1.22
Jason Pominville, BUF	20	14.20	1.41
Erik Cole, CAR	20	13.67	1.46
Henrik Zetterberg, DET	19	19.85	0.96
Damon Langkow, CGY	19	18.38	1.03
Joe Sakic, COL	19	15.15	1.25
Darcy Tucker, TOR	19	13.02	1.46
Jason Spezza, OTT	19	10.76	1.77
Ryan Getzlaf, ANA	19	10.69	1.78
Jaromir Jagr, NYR	18	24.29	0.74
Mike Cammalleri, LAK	18	20.10	0.90
Mats Sundin, TOR	18	16.79	1.07
Daniel Briere, BUF	18	16.45	1.09
Ray Whitney, CAR	18	16.23	1.11
Chris Kunitz, ANA	18	15.37	1.17
Chris Clark, WSH	18	12.62	1.43
Daniel Sedin, VAN	17	18.58	0.91
Zach Parise, NJD	17	17.71	0.96
Brad Richards, TAM	17	16.36	1.04
Marc Savard, BOS	17	13.59	1.25
Dan Cleary, DET	17	12.08	1.41
Kristian Huselius, CGY	17	9.67	1.76
Petr Sykora, EDM	17	9.40	1.81

Note: Empty-net Goals not included.

Check out the Alexander twins in Washington, Ovechkin and Semin. Ovie's performing right around where you'd expect based on Shot Quality, but Semin's racking up twice as many goals as anticipated. If you conjecture that as the rest of the season plays out, scorers will tend to produce numbers relatively close to their Expected Goals value, then you'd look for 2nd-half swings from the extremes highlighted above. Will Jaromir Jagr get on a hot streak and start capitalizing on more of his opportunities? He stands 4th overall in Expected Goals, but lies well back in the pack in terms of actual results. Whether Jagr heats up or Semin cools off, expect to see a wide-open horse race for the Rocket Richard Trophy as we head down the backstretch of this NHL season.

*By "basic", I mean that I haven't made any adjustment for considering the strength of opposition for the players in question. Some of these guys might face better goaltending within their divisional games, for example.

Labels: offense, shot quality

Team By Team Generated Chances

Extending our review yesterday of the top players in the league at generating offensive chances through forced turnovers (Hits & Takeaways), let's take a look at the team-by-team numbers:

Team	Hits	Takeaways	Total
Montreal Canadiens	69	144	213
Ottawa Senators	99	100	199
Carolina Hurricanes	95	90	185
New York Islanders	98	81	179
Dallas Stars	94	82	176
Washington Capitals	75	88	163
Toronto Maple Leafs	97	60	157
New York Rangers	92	65	157
Edmonton Oilers	60	96	156
Florida Panthers	90	65	155
Atlanta Thrashers	73	73	146
New Jersey Devils	59	83	142
Buffalo Sabres	63	77	140
Anaheim Ducks	70	68	138
Los Angeles Kings	74	64	138
Philadelphia Flyers	60	74	134
Minnesota Wild	58	72	130
Detroit Red Wings	64	66	130
Columbus Blue Jackets	64	58	122
Vancouver Canucks	64	55	119
Nashville Predators	50	68	118
San Jose Sharks	78	39	117
St. Louis Blues	52	64	116
Phoenix Coyotes	67	49	116
Boston Bruins	61	53	114
Calgary Flames	47	61	108
Tampa Bay Lightning	35	72	107
Colorado Avalanche	27	77	104
Pittsburgh Penguins	61	39	100
Chicago Blackhawks	49	40	89

Comparing to last year's figures, we see a few interesting items. Most of the top teams from last year remain at the top of this list (Montreal, Ottawa, the Islanders, etc.) and the same holds true at the bottom as well (Pittsburgh, Chicago, Tampa Bay). The most extreme moves upwards have been made by Florida (28th to 10th), Carolina (20th to 3rd), and Buffalo (26th to 13th). Those teams plummeting downwards include Calgary (5th to 26th), Colorado (8th to 28th), and Philadelphia (6th to 16th).

Labels: hits, offense, takeaways

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Shoot It Like You Stole It

One of the more interesting angles I looked at for the 2005-6 NHL season dealt with Takeaways and Hits that lead to immediate offensive chances. This helped shine some light on those players whose hard work actually provides benefit for their team, as opposed to a more general look at the basic leaderboard for those stats. So who's out there doing the yoeman's work to pave the way for the scorers?

The selection used here reflects Hits and Takeaways that result in an offensive chance (shot, goal, missed shot, or blocked shot against) within the next 10 seconds, for the current season up through the All-Star break.

Top 15 in Offensive Chances Generated From Hits
Chris Neil, OTT	20
Craig Adams, CAR	17
Antii Miettinen, DAL	17
Matt Cooke, VAN	16
Alexander Ovechkin, WSH	14
Erik Cole, CAR	14
Shane Doan, PHX	14
Trent Hunter, NYI	13
Ryan Hollweg, NYR	13
Blair Betts, NYR	13
Mike Fisher, OTT	13
Jeff O'Neill, TOR	12
Patrick Rissmiller, SJS	12
Chad Kilger, TOR	12
Sean Hill, NYI	11
Patrick Eaves, OTT	11
Jordin Tootoo, NSH	11

The usual cast of spear-carriers fills the list here, along with a few elite scorers who aren't afraid to get their noses dirty...

Top 15 in Offensive Chances Generated From Takeaways
Tomas Plekanec, MTL	17
Alexander Perezhogin, MTL	15
Tyler Arnason, COL	14
Alexander Semin, WSH	14
Marian Hossa, ATL	14
Pavel Datsyuk, DET	14
Andrei Markov, MTL	13
Martin St. Louis, TAM	13
Justin Williams, CAR	13
Alexander Ovechkin, WSH	12
Sheldon Souray, MTL	12
Eric Belanger, CAR	12
Dany Heatley, OTT	12
Simon Gagne, PHI	12
Saku Koivu, MTL	12

Methinks either the official scorer in Montreal has a itchy trigger finger on the Takeaway button, or kleptomania is taught as a core piece of their hockey scheme.

Top 15 in Offensive Chances Generated From Hits & Takeaways
Alexander Ovechkin, WSH	26
Chris Neil, OTT	24
Marian Hossa, ATL	23
Patrick Eaves, OTT	22
Mike Fisher, OTT	22
Erik Cole, CAR	20
Antii Miettinen, DAL	20
Shane Doan, PHX	20
Trent Hunter, NYI	19
Tomas Plekanec, MTL	19
Matt Cooke, VAN	19
Fernando Pisani, EDM	17
Craig Adams, CAR	17
Martin St. Louis, TAM	17
Blair Betts, NYR	17
Jarret Stoll, EDM	17
Eric Staal, CAR	17

Comparing against last year's leaders, we find many of the same players among our current rankings, in particular Alex Ovechkin, Trent Hunter, Chris Neil, and Marian Hossa. Probably the biggest name to drop off this list is Brendan Morrow from the Dallas Stars, who posted 35 such chances, tied for second-best in the NHL. When he was promoted to team captain during the offseason, his style of play was singled-out as an example for the rest of the team to follow. This year, however, with only 8 such chances generated, he's on track to produce less than half as many as he did all last season.

Labels: hits, offense, takeaways

Monday, January 22, 2007

Mopping Up The Central

Last Friday I touched on the leaders in the NHL Central Division, Nashville and Detroit, but now let's catch up with the rest of the pack. Again, we're looking at trend lines reflecting Actual (red) vs. Expected (blue) Goals on the offensive and defensive side. In general I've tried to keep the preceding graphs relatively free of "visual commentary", but since each of these teams have changed their head coaches already this year, I've put indicators in reflecting those milestones. So let's meet our contestants...

ST. LOUIS BLUES: The Blues have been on fire since Andy Murray took the helm, going 12-4-4 in eighteen games. Looking at the Expected Goals For trendline doesn't seem to indicate any huge change in offensive approach, but the steady increase in Actual Goals For seems to say that something is indeed in the works in terms of shot execution. We'll know the answer to that shortly after the All-Star break, in terms of whether that hot streak of recent days (16 goals in 3 games) continues.

Take a look at the graph below, and you ask youself, what the heck did Murray tell those Blues goaltenders when he came on board? While the overall trend in Expected Goals Against has remained north of the 3.0 "mark of mediocrity", Actual Goals Against has plummeted, due in part to three shutouts this month, including a recent 1-0 effort in San Jose. They're going to need that strength in net if the Blues even want to think about challenging for the final Western Conference playoff spot this coming spring.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: In terms of quantity and quality of shots taken (Expected Goals), the Blue Jackets have been steady underperformers, lingering mostly around the 2.5 goals per game level. Worse yet, goal production early on failed even to live up to those underwhelming standards, as Actual Goals For was mired around 2.0 throughout November. Perhaps there was some short-term increase in focus that led to scorers actually capitalizing on more of their opportunities after Ken Hitchcock was hire, as Actual Goals perked up for a few weeks, but since the new year things seem to be headed back to normal in Columbus (that would mean, "awful").

Defensively, the Blue Jackets' skaters have actually done a fairly good job over the course of the year, holding steady between 2.5 and 3.0 Expected Goals Against per game. The goaltending appeared ready to shoulder its share of the burden as well, but right about where that red line bottoms out in mid-December, Pascal Leclaire injured his knee and in the meantime Fredrik Norrena and Ty Conklin haven't gotten the job done.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: While injuries have played a significant role in Chicago's offensive woes this season, it does appear that new head coach Denis Savard is breathing life into the Blackhawk attack. From a nadir of 2.0 Expected Goals per game when he was hired, Savard now has his charges generating quality opportunities on a nightly basis. If actual results come back close to expectations, Chicago could put up a fight against most teams going forward.

But while everyone has focused on what impact Savard would have on the Chicago offense, the encouraging part of his tenure might well be found at the other end of the rink. For most of the season goaltending has been keeping the Hawks somewhat competitive (note how throughout November and December, Actual goals came in well under Expected), and team defense has generally been subpar. About four weeks ago, however, the trend in Expected Goals Against crossed below 3.0 per game, and has stayed in that territory ever since. Is responsible team defense perhaps on the way in the Windy City? Even if it is, it may be too late to save this season. Befitting the fortunes of a last-place team, the goaltending apparently blew a gasket over New Years Eve. Recent results (8-3 home loss to Nashville Jan. 5, 6-3 loss at Detroit Jan. 13, 5-4 home loss to Columbus Jan. 16, and 6-3 loss at Nashville Jan. 20) indicate that the wheels may well be ready to fall off the proverbial wagon.

Labels: Central, chicago blackhawks, columbus blue jackets, defense, offense, shot quality, st. louis blues, trend

Friday, January 19, 2007

Runnin' Away With The Central

Continuing our tour through the various NHL divisions, it's time to focus on the Central Division, which for the last several years has served as Detroit's personal happy place (five straight 1st-place finishes), but this year is in danger of going Country, as the Nashville Predators currently stand at the top of the overall NHL standings, with the Red Wings four points back. Both teams have flown under the hockey world's radar in light of Buffalo and Anaheim's hot starts, but are legitimate President's Trophy contenders. The rest of the division has generally played the role of the Washington Generals for Detroit and Nashville over the last couple years, but after recent coaching changes, there is at least hope for competitive balance to return to what was once the close-knit Norris Division of old. Unfortunately I don't have time today to post graphs for all five teams in the division, so I'll focus on Nashville & Detroit for now.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS: Over the course of the season so far, the Predators have generally boasted an Actual Goals per Game trend that tracks well above the Expected value, based on the quantity and quality of shots taken. That would appear to indicate that Nashville's team shooting is among the best in the league. Based on shot type and distance, and average opposing goaltending, they would be expected to have 129 goals at this point, but instead have 163 (3rd in the NHL). This phenomenon appears to be broad-based as well, as out of the seven players with at least ten goals, only one (J.P. Dumont) isn't significantly outperforming his Expected Goals value. As a team they've been ridiculously hot of late, but those sage predictions of offensive depth appear to be bearing fruit.

Defensively, we have a picture that "backup" netminder Chris Mason needs to take into his next contract negotiation. Note how the Actual Goals Against per game line consistently glides along more than 0.5 goals per game lower than Expected Goals Against. When starter Tomas Vokoun went down with a hand injury in late November, he was among the league leaders in the various goaltending categories, but then Chris Mason stepped in and didn't miss a beat, posting a .931 save percentage in 30 games. No other team in the league has this kind of depth to take into the playoffs, period. In terms of impact, that half-goal per game difference makes the difference between Nashville being the 7th-best team in Goals Against, and being down at 19th spot alongside the Rangers and Blues.

DETROIT RED WINGS: This is one of the least interesting graphs we'll see in terms of striking swings or gaps in direction or another, but that is precisely what makes it so remarkable. The Red Wings haven't been shut out all year, and haven't had a one-goal game in the last two months. They've climbed about 0.5 goals per game since October/November, but it's been much more of a gradual process (which appears sustainable) than some spike due to a fortunate streak in the schedule.

At their own end of the rink, the results have been much the same. The skaters have kept Expected Goals Against right around 2.5 per game (outstanding), and the goaltending has been average to moderately above average most of the time. Apprently, part of the secret to keeping your 42 year-old goaltenders fresh is to make sure they face the fewest shots in the league...

Labels: Central, defense, detroit red wings, nashville predators, offense, shot quality, trend

Thursday, January 18, 2007

It Takes Two

Sonny and Cher. Hulk Hogan and Mr. T. Simon Cowell and Paula Abdul. History is abundant with ground-breaking partners that together wrought far greater achievements than either could have dreamed of on their own. In the NHL, such pairings can carry a team through long stretches by carrying the offensive burden on their combined shoulders. During the 1990's, we saw unstoppable combos such as Mario Lemieux/Jaromir Jagr from the Penguins, Teemu Selanne/Paul Kariya with the erstwhile "Mighty" Ducks, and of course Adam Oates/Brett Hull from the St. Louis Blues. But who are today's most dynamic duos?

My guideline here is to look for players providing the first assist on each others' goals. For example, our top pair, Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier of the Tampa Bay Lightning, have eighteen such scores. St. Louis has talled 12 goals where Lecavalier has recorded the first assist, while St. Louis has repaid the favor to Lecavalier six times.

Top First-Assist Combos As Of Jan. 17
Combo	Goals	Scoring Split
St.Louis/Lecavalier, TAM	18	12/6
Straka/Nylander, NYR	17	12/5
Zubrus/Ovechkin, WSH	17	10/7
Hossa/Koslov, ATL	17	9/8
Langkow/Iginla, CGY	16	10/6
Pominville/Briere, BUF	14	11/3
Heatley/Spezza, OTT	14	9/5
D. Sedin/H. Sedin, VAN	14	9/5
Blake/Yashin, NYI	14	9/5
Selanne/McDonald, ANA	13	10/3
Kunitz/Selanne, ANA	13	9/4
Jokinen/Horton, FLA	13	8/5
Gionta/Gomez, NJD	13	7/6

The remarkable thing that jumps out right away is that "Selanne + Any Warm Body" makes a pretty good pairing. Those are the basic results, but I thought I'd add another twist to this scenario. Let's see to what extent these first-assist relationships account for the various pairs' overall output. Taking the Lightning again as an example, Lecavalier and St. Louis have combined for 58 goals, of which 18 have involved one providing the first assist for the other:

Top First-Assist Combos, Sorted By Fraction of Total Scoring
Combo	1st Assists	Total Goals	Fraction
D. Sedin/H. Sedin, VAN	14	22	.636
Gionta/Gomez, NJD	13	28	.464
Straka/Nylander, NYR	17	39	.436
Pominville/Briere, BUF	14	36	.389
Blake/Yashin, NYI	14	36	.389
Zubrus/Ovechkin, WSH	17	44	.386
Langkow/Iginla, CGY	16	42	.381
Hossa/Koslov, ATL	17	46	.370
Jokinen/Horton, FLA	13	37	.351
Selanne/McDonald, ANA	13	41	.317
St.Louis/Lecavalier, TAM	18	58	.310
Heatley/Spezza, OTT	14	47	.298
Kunitz/Selanne, ANA	13	47	.277

This is where I think we see the difference between paired players who merely have lots of success on the ice and happen to be in the same place at the same time, and those who truly rely on each other for goal scoring. In particular, the Sedin twins' results are eye-popping. They only have 22 combined goals, but almost two-thirds involve one twin directly providing the play for the other to score! Perhaps one lesson out of this is that if opposing teams can lock up one of the players who rank highly on this list, it might fare badly for their partner as well, as they may be particularly reliant on each other to make the overall offense flow.

Labels: assists, offense

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Assessing the Southeast

The Southeast Division is home to the last two Stanley Cup champions (I know it's true, but it still seems wierd to write that), but this season we've seen a new power emerge in the Atlanta Thrashers. While Atlanta chases down their first division title and/or playoff berth, and Carolina has steadily lingered a few points back, the only real movement of late has seen the Tampa Bay Lightning pull ahead of the Washington Capitals for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The other model of consistency has been the Florida Panthers, slinking around the division basement due in part to a league-low five road victories.

But underneath their positions in the standings, how have the overall offenses and defenses in the Southeast fared so far this year? Let's break them down team-by-team, focusing on the rolling 10-game averages for Actual (in red) and Expected Goals (in blue), both For and Against. As a guideline, NHL teams on the whole are averaging 2.97 goals per game, so in the graphs below, like for variation from that 3.00 level as an indication of your best and worst performers. Again, "Expected Goals" is a measure of Shots multiplied by the average Shot Quality, and reflect the number of goals for or against, given perfectly average goaltending.

ATLANTA THRASHERS: When I looked at the Thrashers' offensive output last week, there was hope that a spell of cold shooting might be coming to a close, but that hasn't been the case, and even worse, the trend in Expected Goals (in blue) is still heading downwards, now dipping below the 3.00 mark. Uh oh...

Defensively, the Expected Goals trend has been creeping up around 3.50 goals against per game, which would rank them well below the league average in goals against, but goaltending has apparently made a big difference for the last two months; notice how the red Actual Goals line has persistently stayed below expectations since late November. That's what has kept the Thrashers playing .500 hockey recently; if the offense doesn't recover or the goaltending cools off, Atlanta may well give up that first place position before too long.

CAROLINA HURRICANES: The defending Stanley Cup champs have had a rough time lighting the lamp over the last two months, as their Actual Goals have trailed behind expecations by about 0.5 goals per game since early December. I'd be interested to hear from Hurricanes fans what factors might be at work here - elite opposing goaltenders, warped sticks, too much barbecue in the pregame meal...?

In their own end of the ice, the Hurricanes started off the season playing fairly poor defense, as seen where both the Actual and Expected Goals Against lines start around the 3.5 level in early November. Over time, however, things have settled down around the 3.0 midrange, with Actuals and Expectations tracking closely together. Hardly outstanding, but probably enough to keep them close on Atlanta's heels.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: Following a hot streak in early November (when the Actual Goals average topped four goals per game), the Lightning have generally stayed above average in terms of offensive production, but a lingering New Years hangover has seen them slip markedly over the last two weeks. Opposition goaltending doesn't appear to be a big factor here, as Actual and Expected Goals are both heading downwards.

Defensively, the Lightning skaters have been outstanding for most of the season, as the blue Expected Goals Against line has typically remained below 3.00, even creeping under the 2.5 mark for most of December. Goaltending has let them down, however, as a steady gap relative to Actual Goals Against has kept their overall defensive numbers below average. Lately that gap has closed, and the goalies will have to continue holding up their end of the bargain if the Lightning are going to return to the playoffs.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS: The basic picture here is one of a slightly above-average offense that had a nice hot streak in early December, but has come back to earth since then. While the Caps have some promising young talent up front, they just don't have the depth to outscore teams on a consistent basis.

One of the great feel-good stories in the first half of the season has been the play of veteran goaltender Olaf Kolzig, who basically held the team together through the first two October and November. Note how the Expected Goals Against ranged precariously between 3.5 and 4.0 per game, but Olie the Goalie kept actual performance about half a goal per game under that level, encouraging Caps fans that their young squad might make the playoffs this year, or even contend for the division title. Over the last six weeks, we've seen the Expected value come down somewhat (still subpar, but not horrible), but the goaltending isn't outperforming like it was earlier in the year, and unless that turns around, the Caps are headed for another early start on summer vacation...

FLORIDA PANTHERS: It seems like the Panthers are the perennial "next up-and-comer" franchise that experts predict great things from, but until mid-December, the only place these kitties were performing was in the litter box. Both Actual and Expected Goals For were stuck around 2.5 for weeks, as the team languished near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Starting with a 6-3 victory over the Bruins on December 16th, however, the Florida offense has roared to life, including a couple 7-goal efforts against Washington (last Saturday) and Toronto (on Dec. 19th). Veteran forwards Jozef Stumpel and Gary Roberts are mixing well with youngsters like Nathan Horton to complement team captain Olli Jokinen, who at age 28 is hitting his prime.

In their own end, however, Florida sure does miss Roberto Luongo, who was dealt to Vancouver during the offseason. Ed Belfour and Alexander Auld are doing a serviceable job (notice how close the Actual and Expected Goals Against trends have been), but Luongo's previous years in south Florida were among the best in the league in terms of outperforming expectations. As far as the skaters are concerned, the Panthers have slowly but steadily improved on defense over the course of the year. Despite their current 14th place standing in the East, only seven points are keeping them out of a playoff spot, and with 35 games left to play, that offense might just give the Panthers a chance at playing meaningful hockey this April. Will the experts finally be right this year, and see the Panthers make good on all that potential? Call me crazy, but just as I found last week when I looked at the Northwest division, I'm finding the most positive trends associated with the current last place team (since that article, the Wild have pulled ahead of Colorado and Edmonton, and are only one point out of first).

Labels: atlanta thrashers, carolina hurricanes, defense, florida panthers, offense, southeast, tampa bay lightning, trend, washington capitals

Monday, January 15, 2007

A hoe-down in Pred Town

Last week I got to attend the Western Conference #1 vs. #2 showdown (Anaheim/Nashville), but little did I know I'd end up on Google Video!

And no, I wasn't Fan of The Game, merely the guy in the Swedish national team jersey lurking in the background...

Labels: nashville predators

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Deeper into the Northwest

Due to popular demand (OK, one email someone sent me), I thought I'd expand on my recent article covering the Atlanta and New Jersey offensive trends, and go through all 30 NHL teams, covering both offense and defense in terms of generating (and preventing) shots, measured by quantity and quality. By using Shots For, Shots Against, and Shot Quality to come up with Expected Goals For and Against, we are effectively isolating team play from the effects of stellar or subpar goaltending. Where there's a significantly wide and persistent gap between those two values, we start to consider whether it's the goalie's fault (in a defensive slide), or a run against a series of superior opposing goalies (for an offensive drought), etc.

Today we'll begin with the Northwest Division, that morass of mediocrity that currently shows all five teams within a mere four points in the standings. Will things stay this close over the next few months, or will a team or two start to take the lead? What I'll do here is merely lay out the trends, and leave it up to you to provide comments as to what may have provided the trigger for some of the key turning points we'll see along the way. I'm not close enough to all these teams to know which lines got juggled when, who missed certain games due to injury, etc. For clarity's sake, the red lines represent actual goals (solid line is the 10-game moving average), and blue lines show Expected Goals (Shots * Average Shot Quality).

VANCOUVER CANUCKS: The story in B.C. seems to be that the Canucks weren't finishing their scoring opportunities early on, as their Actual Goals underperformed relative to Expected Goals by upwards of a full goal per game for weeks. What we have since then is really a mixed bag offensively, as the Expected Goals has taken a dip, residing now around 2.75 goals per game, but the Actual Goals have exceeded that figure, in part due to an outstanding effort in a 6-2 drubbing of the Edmonton Oilers on December 30th, when Jussi Markkanen yielded 6 goals on 25 shots (the gap noted in the picture shows the difference between actual and expected goals on that night).

Defensively, the picture looks much more consistent. Both Expected and Actual Goals against have mostly hovered between the 2.5 and 3.0 goals per game marks, with no discernable trend either up or down there.

CALGARY FLAMES: The Flames offense has been one of the more consistent, if not spectacular, groups in the league. The Expected Goals average never seems to top 3 goals per game, casting doubt on any offensive surge unless something significant changes, either in personnel or tactics:

On the defensive side, the Flames really locked things down during November and December, at first through outstanding goaltending (note the gap between the blue and red lines), then later through solid team D, as the Expected Goals Against line hung at or below 2.5 goals per game for about a month. Taking both of these charts together, we see a team giving up and scoring about the same amount of goals, so there's nothing here to indicate the Flames are about to heat up.

EDMONTON OILERS: Now this is an interesting chart. Notice how in mid-November, the Expected Goals heads into the toilet (troughing below the 2 goals-per-game level), before picking back up around the new year. During that time, however, the Actual Goals actually held up, bouyed by a couple strong efforts against St. Louis and Chicago (noted in the chart). Were the Oilers catching a fortunate streak against lousy goaltending during that time, or did they focus more in light of Ryan Smyth's injury? Speak up, Oilers fans...

Now defensively, the picture below looks troubling. The blue line tells us that the skaters are doing an excellent job of limiting scoring opportunities, holding at or just below the 2.5 goals per game figure. Over the last couple weeks, however, we've seen the Actual Goals Against take off, topping 4 per game recently. Have the wheels come off of Dwayne Roloson's bandwagon?

COLORADO AVALANCHE:

On the attack, Colorado's Expected Goals trend has declined slowly from elite (4.0 goals per game in early November) to average (around 3.0 now), leaving little optimism for a sudden revival anytime soon. During the last two weeks of November, Actual Goals were especially hard to come by, and while those blue and red trend lines are running close together now, the steady slope downwards cries out for some kind of action from team management.

On defense, the Avalanche have been a model of consistency, lingering mostly in the 2.5-3.0 goals against per game pace all season, with actual results closely conforming to expectations. That sort of reliability could help them avoid prolonged slumps over the next couple months, and keep them contending for the division lead.

MINNESOTA WILD: There may be reason for hope in Minnesota, as the offense is producing as well as they have all year (right around the NHL average), and the trend appears headed in the right direction. Actual results are closely tracking expectations, so the recent surge appears to be the product of solid team effort, rather than just loading up goals in a fluke blowout or two.
And on defense, the final graph in this piece provides probably the strongest case for a potential leader to come out of this tightly-bunched division. Team defense is yielding a stingy 2.5 Expected Goals against per game, and with Actual Goals closely in step at this point, it looks like the goaltending is holding up its end of the bargain as well (certainly in early November it did, when Actual Goals were well below Expected). An average offense, combined with outstanding defense, can pile up plenty of points over the course of the long NHL season. Just looking at these trends, I'd place my bets on the Wild to charge out to the Northwest division lead over the next few weeks...

Labels: calgary flames, colorado avalanche, defense, edmonton oilers, minnesota wild, northwest, offense, shot quality, trend, vancouver canucks

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Follow That Trend!

Having recently examined the hot and cold individual shooters in the NHL, it's time to look at some team-wide performances, focusing on the leaders in the Atlantic and Southeast divisions.

Early in the season, the Atlanta Thrashers were one of the feel-good stories of the NHL. Still searching for their first playoff appearance, they charged out of the gate and by early December, after their first 29 games, looked ready to run away with the Southeast division. The offense was averaging 3.48 goals per game, but a little over a month later, they've failed to maintain that momentum, playing .500 hockey since then and averaging only 2.38 goals per game. Fortunately for the Thrashers, the competition chasing them is flailing around the .500 mark as well, but does this offensive swoon mean that another regular season will end in disappointment? Perhaps not...

The graph below shows the overall offensive trend for the Thrashers so far this year. The red dotted line shows (non-empty net) goals scored in each game, with the solid line showing a 10-game moving average. The corresponding blue lines represent the Expected Goals, which is simply Shots Per Game multiplied by the average Shot Quality (put simply, closer, more dangerous shots merit higher Shot Quality). What we see here is that starting on December 7th, after a 8-0 stomping by the Tampa Bay Lightning, a wide gap grows between the Expected Goals per game and the Actual figures, which has closed to almost nothing recently. What that means is that the Trashers have suffered a spell of either poor shooting on their part (stuffing close-in shots into the goaltender, for example), or hot goaltending on the opposite end. In terms of generating a decent number of quality scoring opportunities, however, they've been pretty consistent; a moderate long-term drop in Expected Goals from around 3.5 to 3.0, but nowhere near as severe as the Actual Goals.

There are four noteworthy games in here worth pointing out. The data points marked "Giguere", "DiPietro" and "Miller" all represent 1-goal or shutout efforts against opponents that rank among the leaders in save percentage. The "Wild" note is interesting not so much because the Thrashers only scored one goal, but that the Expected Goals value for that game was only 1.34, the second-lowest figure all year for Atlanta. In other words, they just got shut down, only generating 15 shots total.

What we see towards the right edge of this graph is that the gap between actual values and expectations has closed to a neglible amount, so perhaps fortunes are turning, and the Atlanta offense is coming back to normal. While that in itself is good news, "expectations" have crept down close to 3.00 goals per game, and with a defense giving up roughly the same amount, that means the Thrashers are looking at playing .550 hockey going forward*, which may not be enough to hold off the Carolina Hurricanes.

While analysis like this can reveal a team experiencing a hot or cold phase, it can also provide validation for certain trends as well. Take for example, the New Jersey Devils. Back in late November, they were in the midst of a four-way Atlantic horserace that saw the Islanders, Rangers, Devils and Penguins seperated by a mere three points in the standings. Since then, however, New Jersey has stretched to a six-point lead over the Rangers with two games in hand, due largely to an offense that squeezed out 2.32 goals per game early on, but has clipped along at 3.10 since then.

Note the graph here, where we see the Expected and Actual lines pretty much walking along in lockstep, but with a distinct upwards path since a November 25th 2-0 loss at the hands of the San Jose Sharks. The Expected Goals per game has basically gone from 2 to 3, closely matching the performance noted in the paragraph above. Maybe there was something special in the Thanksgiving team meal in New Jersey, but regardless, there has been a steady improvement in their offensive play over the last six weeks which bodes well for their chances to pull away from the rest of the Atlantic pack. Even with an average offense, that league leading defense will win them plenty of games.

*Why .550 and not .500, do you ask? Because of overtime losses which still earn a team 1 point in the standings. Typically, a team that scores and gives up an equal amount of goals will end up around a .550 winning percentage, rather than .500.

Labels: atlanta thrashers, new jersey devils, offense, trend

Preds Chomp Ducks in OT

It was a heckuva game last night in Nashville, as the Predators edged the Ducks 5-4 in OT, with Steve Sullivan scoring the winner off a nice feed from Kimmo Timonen. The only downside really was the lackluster attendance - 11,821, lowest of the season so far.

For a casual fan, this one had everything. Two top teams, a couple spirited fights (including the 5'9" Jordan Tootoo in a nice effort against 6'2" Shane O'Brien), and plenty of offense. Every time the Preds started to pull away, the Ducks hung in there. Ex-Duck Paul Kariya opened the scoring off a wonderful crossing pass from Martin Erat, but only seconds later, Chris Kunitz evened things up for Anaheim after a breakaway pass that reminded me of too many college days spent playing Sega Genesis NHL. Despite opening up a two-goal lead by the end of the first, the league-leading Ducks came back to even the score at 4-4 towards the end of the 2nd, setting up a hard-fought 3rd that got the crowd's attention.

While there were too many empty seats, the fans that were there kept up their end of the bargain, particularly "Cell Block 303", the 100% jam-packed section in the upper bowl that leads the way for the rest of the crowd. Throughout the 3rd period, every chance, every hit, every big save brought roars and jeers as the action flowed back and forth. The winning goal, which saw Timonen take a pass as he came in down the right side, carry the puck behind the net on his backhand and feed it into the slot for a wide-open Sullivan, capped things off and sent the throng home happy (and hopefully telling thier friends today what a great time they had).

I'm convinced that hockey can work long-term here in Nashville, but only if the bandwagon gets rolling. Now that football season is over here in Middle Tennessee, there's no excuse for the local media to ignore this championship-contender anymore (local sports radio seems preoccupied with college football 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, followed by the NFL). We'll see how things go over the next couple months, and whether excitement starts to build as the Preds aim for their first Central Division title, and the #1 seed in the West.

Labels: anaheim ducks, nashville predators

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Offensively Lame Ducks?

I just wanted to pass along a quick thought-provoker before heading down to the GEC for tonight's Ducks/Predators game. Just examining the offensive side of the game, it appears that Anaheim is going through a slow yet persistent offensive slide, whereas the nature of the Nashville offense is changing.

Here's a snapshot of what the Ducks have been up to. The blue lines represent shots per game (dotted indicates the trend), and the red ones represent average Shot Quality. Anaheim's overall shot totals are pretty stable, but the SQ trend line is sharply negative. With .100 being a league-wide average, they've gone from the penthouse to the outhouse, including five straight subpar offensive showings. Besides the injuries in goal and on the blue line, that's a worrysome trend for Randy Carlyle and crew.

As to Nashville, they've seen Shots Per Game decline slightly over the course of time, but an increase in average Shot Quality helps neutralize that effect. Their overall offense isn't surging or declining, but rather they seem to be taking slightly fewer, albeit more dangerous, shots.

Sorry for the rushed nature of this post, gotta head out the door. Come back in the days ahead for more thorough analysis of particular teams which may go shopping ahead of the trade deadline...

Labels: anaheim ducks, offense, shot quality, trend

Battle of the Best in the West

Woohoo! I've scored access to a suite for tonight's Anaheim Ducks/Nashville Predators tilt at the GEC. Injuries dominate the story here, as Tomas Vokoun is expected to return to action for Nashville, while Anaheim misses J.S. Giguere and Chris Pronger, among others. Although struggling some lately, the Ducks did top Detroit 4-2 at home on Sunday, and having also won 5 of their last 6 against the Preds, Anaheim should be confident coming in.

Frankly, I think this game just means a lot more to the Predators at this point. Despite an admirable record, Nashville is merely .500 against the top 10 teams in the NHL, suggesting that they're still earning a place among the elite of the league, and the pressure on this team to succeed is mounting. With the NFL season finally over here in the Music City, the Predators have their best chance yet at capturing the hearts and minds of sports fans in Middle Tennessee. Much has been written about disappointing attendance figures in certain NHL markets, and Nashville is usually cited as a city that probably doesn't deserve an NHL team. Yes, they did have to threaten a TV blackout during the playoffs last year in a desperate attempt to sell the building out, and the numbers so far this year have been less than spectacular. However, this is really the first season that local fans have had reason to believe in a legitimate contender, rather than a "little engine that could"-type of team that merely hopes to make the playoffs.

In order to make good on that potential, however, the Predators need to win the Central Division, and make a strong showing in the playoffs. There's no better way for this team to start building momentum than to beat the Ducks tonight, and make a run at Western Conference supremacy over the next couple weeks.

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Lone Gunmen, the epilogue

Following up on my recent piece on Unassisted Goals, Brian from New York City wrote,

Just an idea about the no assist goals in the NHL...it seems to me that many of them tend to be short-handed goals, as many of the leaders seem to be leading short-handed goal scorers. Wonder if you could breakdown that percentage?

Why certainly, Brian, thanks for pointing out an angle of that story that I probably should have covered in the initial piece. At an overall level, the non-empty net, non-penalty shots goals broke down as follows:

Basically, Solo Goals are indeed a much bigger slice of overall shorthanded goals than they are of even strength goals, but even strength still accounts for almost 75% of all unassisted scores. Thanks for the question, Brian!

Labels: assists, offense, statistics

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Who's Hot? Who's Not?

When discussing the hottest shooters in the NHL, your initial reaction is to check the shooting percentage rankings, and rattle off your favorites near the top of that list. Some favor the hard shooters with 100-mph slappers, or those with wickedly quick wrist shots, but invariably, the shooting percentage stat provides the jumping off point for any such conversation.

What we miss, however, in this kind of review is the difference between a defenseman who typically takes long-distance slapshots, and power forwards who tend to get more tip-ins, and other close-range scoring opportunities. The tool we use to take this into consideration is Shot Quality, which assigns a value to each shot based on its distance and shot type (wrist, slap, tip-in, etc.). Last season, for example, 9.88% of shots scored, but if you looked only at wrist shots from 11-20 feet, those scored at a 18% clip, and slapshots from 41-50 feet scored 5.3% of the time. Therefore, if you had a player who took nothing but close-in shots, you'd naturally expect them to have a higher shooting percentage than a defenseman winding up from the point. By definition, a perfectly average NHL shooter would expect to have a Shooting Percentage equal to their average Shot Quality.

The tables below list the hottest and coldest shooters in the NHL so far this year, by breaking down their actual performance, and comparing that to the average Shot Quality. The result is a "Shooting Factor", which states the relationship between those two values. A Shooting Factor of 2.00, for example, reflects a player whose Shooting Percentage is twice that of their average Shot Quality. A factor of 0.50 shows a player only scoring half as often as Shot Quality would predict. So who's lighting up the lamp, and who's just plunking pucks off the goalie? Let's take a look...

Top 10 Hot-Shooting Forwards
Player	Team	Shots	Goals	Sht %	Avg SQ	Shooting Factor
Alexander Radulov	NSH	40	11	.275	.102	2.71
Tuomo Ruutu	CHI	45	10	.222	.100	2.23
Petr Sykora	EDM	95	15	.158	.075	2.12
Jarret Stoll	EDM	78	11	.141	.067	2.10
Jeff Hamilton	CHI	58	10	.172	.087	1.99
Matt Pettinger	WSH	54	10	.185	.098	1.89
Curtis Brown	SJS	37	6	.162	.086	1.88
Kristian Huselius	CGY	57	12	.211	.116	1.82
Maxim Afinogenov	BUF	91	18	.198	.109	1.81
Jason Spezza	OTT	86	19	.221	.125	1.77

Nashville's rookie on the rise, Alexander Radulov, is far ahead of the pack here, trailed by two players each from Edmonton and Chicago. Radulov began the season in the AHL and only recently earned a full-time job with the Predators, so expect his shot totals to accumulate quickly in the weeks ahead. Whether he can keep up the torrid scoring pace is another question, however.

Top 10 Hot-Shooting Defensemen
Player	Team	Shots	Goals	Sht %	Avg SQ	Shooting Factor
Philippe Boucher	DAL	106	12	.113	.044	2.55
Sheldon Souray	MTL	109	12	.110	.044	2.48
Brad Stuart	BOS	44	6	.136	.056	2.45
Hal Gill	TOR	39	3	.077	.032	2.37
Lubomir Visnovsky	LAK	95	11	.116	.056	2.07
Brian Campbell	BUF	43	5	.116	.058	2.01
Nicklas Lidstrom	DET	87	9	.103	.053	1.95
Sergei Zubov	DAL	82	7	.085	.045	1.88
Sami Salo	VAN	68	6	.088	.048	1.85
Filip Kuba	TAM	57	6	.105	.058	1.83

You may ask why, given our wonderful Shot Quality tool, I'd keep the forwards and defensemen in different tables. Basically, the goal scoring is so low among blueliners that a lucky bounce or two at this stage (not quite halfway through the season) can still wildly skew the numbers. For instance, I'd hesitate to call Hal Gill a super-hot shooter when he only has 3 goals. If just one of those was due to such a lucky bounce and not Gill's ability, his Shooting Factor would drop to around 1.6 and he wouldn't be on this list. But in the interim, we do see a number of recognizable snipers like Nick Lidstrom and Sergei Zubov represented, along with Philippe Boucher, who is enjoying a career season here in his 14th year.

Now that we've looked at who's lighting the lamp, how about those shooters who are hitting nothing but goaltenders? Let's dig our way down to the bottom of the barrell...

Bottom 5 Cold-Shooting Forwards
Player	Team	Shots	Goals	Sht %	Avg SQ	Shooting Factor
Alex Burrows	VAN	40	0	.000	.105	0.00
Mike Richards	PHI	69	1	.014	.118	0.12
Ian Laperriere	COL	62	1	.016	.128	0.13
Josh Green	VAN	52	1	.019	.122	0.16
Dallas Drake	STL	43	1	.023	.113	0.21

No wonder Vancouver has had such struggles offensively, with 2 forwards on the leader board here.

Bottom 7 Cold-Shooting Defensemen
Player	Team	Shots	Goals	Sht %	Avg SQ	Shooting Factor
Martin Skoula	MIN	40	0	.000	.034	0.00
Paul Martin	NJD	36	0	.000	.039	0.00
Stephane Robidas	DAL	52	0	.000	.042	0.00
Duncan Keith	CHI	54	0	.000	.050	0.00
Scott Hannan	SJS	41	0	.000	.053	0.00
Kevin Dallman	LAK	40	0	.000	.068	0.00
Joni Pitkanen	PHI	67	0	.000	.074	0.00

Seven defenseman are included above, as they are tied with perfect shutouts so far this year. That Dallas blue line seems like a real hit-or-miss bunch, with Zubov and Boucher among the leaders, and Robidas shooting blanks. If you had to pick a particularly cold shooter here, it has to be Joni Pitkanen, who not only has the most shots among our goal-less wonders, but has the highest average Shot Quality as well, meaning he's taking, on average, the most dangerous shots amongst them.

Note: The numbers here reflect non-empty net shots, taken from the top 400 NHL players ranked by shots taken.

Monday, January 01, 2007

Why not rock, paper, scissors?

There's another in-depth piece posted over at Hockey Analytics covering the shootout, and its impact on the 2005-06 season at both a team and individual level. If you're still hungover from last night, you may want to wait a day before digging in, lest you pull a lobe or something...

The most interesting part, to me, is where Alan notes certain players whose contribution to team success was mostly due to their shootout results, rather than production during "normal" play during the first 65 minutes of game time. I would think those guys might have a false sense of security in their standing in the NHL. Give 'em a month or two without such shootout results, and GM's might look for more reliable players. There may be a few teams in the league that can carry a shootout specialist on the roster, but especially in the salary cap era, that comes at a cost somewhere else...