Moved

Friday, December 29, 2006

Where's my Glowing Puck?

In case you've been wondering about that Fox Sports logo on the sidebar, I'm happy to announce that selected posts from this blog will now be featured at Fox Sports NHL, alongside the work of Spector and Mike Chen. All articles will still be posted here first, but hopefully this will provide another gateway to bring more hockey fans into what is a burgeoning online community of blogs. Thanks to all of you for your visits, comments, and constructive criticism, and have a Happy New Year...

"We Don't Need No Stinkin' Assists..."

After having recently looked at the NHL's leading assist makers, in an attempt to weed out those players loading up on 2nd Assists, I thought I'd take a look at the opposite end of the scoring formula. How often are Unassisted Goals scored, and which players get the most and least unassisted tallies? On an individual level, that could help us see who can create (and capitalize on) their own offensive chances, while on a team level, it might give us some insight into offensive style. For instance, a low-scoring team with a high proportion of "Solo Goals" might have goal-scoring talent on the roster, but not enough playmaking ability to set them up more often.

Somewhat surprisingly, when we look back at the 2005-06 season, only 4.8% of non-empty net, non-penalty shot goals were scored without an assist. In terms of overall results, Eric Staal of the Carolina Hurricanes led the league with 6 such markers:

**Unassisted Goal Leaders 2005-06**
Player	Total Goals	Unassisted	Portion
Eric Staal, CAR	43	6	13.9%
Antii Laaksonen, COL	16	5	31.3%
Mike Fisher, OTT	22	5	22.7%
Brian Gionta, NJD	47	5	10.6%
Alexander Ovechkin, WSH	52	5	9.6%
Brian Rolston, MIN	32	4	12.5%

At the opposite end of that spectrum, we find that out of the top 25 goal scorers from last year, there were four players who scored zero unassisted goals: Ottawa's Dany Heatley, Anaheim's Andy McDonald, Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby, and Edmonton's Ryan Smyth.

And now for the team-by-team results...

**Unassisted Goals By Team 2005-06**
Team	Total Goals	Unassisted	Portion
Washington Capitals	227	21	9.25%
Ottawa Senators	306	21	6.86%
Philadelphia Flyers	251	18	7.17%
Detroit Red Wings	291	16	5.50%
New York Rangers	237	15	6.33%
Carolina Hurricanes	271	14	5.17%
Atlanta Thrashers	265	13	4.91%
Nashville Predators	248	13	5.24%
Colorado Avalanche	271	13	4.80%
San Jose Sharks	258	12	4.65%
Columbus Blue Jackets	211	12	5.69%
Chicago Blackhawks	207	12	5.80%
Florida Panthers	224	12	5.36%
Anaheim Ducks	240	11	4.58%
Toronto Maple Leafs	250	11	4.40%
Minnesota Wild	214	11	5.14%
Dallas Stars	249	11	4.42%
New Jersey Devils	228	11	4.82%
Boston Bruins	223	11	4.93%
Calgary Flames	208	11	5.29%
Vancouver Canucks	240	9	3.75%
Montreal Canadiens	237	9	3.80%
New York Islanders	216	9	4.17%
Pittsburgh Penguins	242	9	3.72%
Buffalo Sabres	263	8	3.04%
Edmonton Oilers	241	8	3.32%
St. Louis Blues	189	8	4.23%
Tampa Bay Lightning	237	8	3.38%
Phoenix Coyotes	235	7	2.98%
Los Angeles Kings	236	4	1.69%

The real outliers here are Washington, which scored a much higher portion of their goals unassisted than any other team in the league, while on the bottom end you have Phoenix and L.A., which were the only two teams scoring less than 3% of their goals unassisted.

As for this year, we have three players so far with 3 Solo Goals each: Atlanta's Marian Hossa, Toronto's Mats Sundin, and (what is it about this family?) Pittsburgh's other rookie sensation, Jordan Staal.

And as to our team-by-team numbers, the Capitals are again leading the way...

**Unassisted Goals By Team 2006-07 (as of 12/28)**
Team	Total Goals	Unassisted	Portion
Washington Capitals	109	10	9.17%
Buffalo Sabres	133	10	7.52%
Atlanta Thrashers	117	10	8.55%
Toronto Maple Leafs	118	9	7.63%
Detroit Red Wings	101	8	7.92%
Colorado Avalanche	116	8	6.90%
Anaheim Ducks	132	7	5.30%
Pittsburgh Penguins	111	7	6.31%
Chicago Blackhawks	84	6	7.14%
Calgary Flames	95	5	5.26%
Tampa Bay Lightning	113	5	4.42%
Ottawa Senators	119	5	4.20%
New York Rangers	107	5	4.67%
Florida Panthers	106	5	4.72%
Minnesota Wild	94	5	5.32%
Columbus Blue Jackets	90	4	4.44%
New York Islanders	103	4	3.88%
Boston Bruins	101	3	2.97%
Nashville Predators	119	3	2.52%
Carolina Hurricanes	115	3	2.61%
San Jose Sharks	107	3	2.80%
Edmonton Oilers	96	3	3.13%
Philadelphia Flyers	82	3	3.66%
Montreal Canadiens	104	3	2.88%
Los Angeles Kings	100	2	2.00%
St. Louis Blues	80	2	2.50%
Dallas Stars	98	1	1.02%
Phoenix Coyotes	84	1	1.19%
New Jersey Devils	91	1	1.10%
Vancouver Canucks	88	1	1.14%

Across the league this year, 4.6% of non-empty net, non-penalty shot goals are solo efforts, quote close to last year's 4.8% figure. As to major moves by various teams, the Philadelphia Flyers are on a pace to score only about a third as many solo goals as last season, whereas the Buffalo Sabres have already exceeded last year's total and should score more than 20 by season's end (but then again, what kind of goals aren't they scoring these days?).

So if your favorite team's playmaker gets injured this year, take a look above and see what propects there are for players to create their own offensive chances. In some cases, there may be enough offensive skill around to make up for the loss...

Labels: assists, offense, statistics

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Crease Crashing with Alan Ryder

Yesterday, Alan Ryder (of Hockey Analytics fame) posted an insightful piece over at the Globe and Mail about "Crease Crashers", those players and teams that take shots within 10 feet of the net. The basic idea is that close-in shots have a much higher likelihood of scoring, so teams able to generate those kinds of chances should score more as a result. He gathered his data from the 2005-06 play-by-play files, and presented player and team breakdowns.

I thought I'd dig a little deeper into the question, and update it with this year's numbers so far as well. First off, I was relieved to run my own analysis and find that I came up with very close to the same percentages as Alan did (I exclude Empty Net goals, of which Minnesota had one from 9 feet last year). By bringing in the additional measure of Shot Quality, we might get a further clue as to why the teams at the top of this list scored at nearly twice the rate of those at the bottom.

As a quick guide, if you take all shots from 10 feet or less and break them down by shot type (wrist, slap, etc.), we arrive at overall shooting percentage numbers across the league last season:

Backhand .167
Slap .219
Snap .250
Tip-In .278
Wrap-Around .058
Wrist .248

If some teams attempt more Wrap-Arounds, for example, it's likely that their shooting percentage will be lower as a result, since only 5.8% of those shots went in last year. The table below shows the results from last season's shots from 10 feet or less, excluding Empty Nets. I've added the Average Shot Quality, and a "Diff" column, showing how much a team's shooting percentage differs from the Shot Quality value. At the bottom, I've included Standard Deviation figures for each column.

A few things jump out when I first put this together. First of all, it's surprising how closely grouped together the values in the Avg SQ column are. Outside of Tampa Bay, the low-end outlier at .171, the rest of the league runs from .195 to .227, whereas shooting percentages range from .146 to .271. It would appear that the major difference-maker when it comes to shooting percentage in this case comes down to execution, "touch", or whatever moniker you want to ascribe to teams that score in certain situations, and those that don't.

Updating these figures for the season so far gives us the following table (including a Shots/Game column, to cover Games Played disparities):

Again, note how the deviation for Average SQ is much smaller than that for Shooting Percentage, or "Diff". One interesting point in Alan's column addresses shot totals:

Teams have offensive styles, reflecting both the make-up of the team and the effects of coaching. The Flyers (272 shots) and Rangers (264), each with three players on this list, and the Avalanche (249) were the most penetrating offenses of last season. I am willing to bet that Philadelphia does not lead this list this season.

Actually, Philadelphia stands a respectable 2nd in shots within 10 feet per game, at 2.86. At least that's one part of their game that's working well...

Another angle to look at is how these numbers have changed from last season to now, on a team-by-team view. This is where we see in detail where some teams have made major changes. The Tampa Bay Lightning, for example, are getting to the net much more often than last year, but the quality of those shots is still quite low (2nd lowest in the NHL). The former effect is much more significant than the latter, so on the whole, Tampa's offense is enjoying some success in that area.

The Washington Capitals have made a huge leap in the "Touch" column, going from worst to first, largely due to the contributions of the Alexanders (Semin is 5-for-10, and Ovechkin is shooting at 35% from short range). We'll see how much these numbers come back to the mean over the rest of the season, but clearly the Caps are banging home a lot more close-in opportunities this year. As hot as Washington has been, the Phoenix Coyotes and Vancouver Canucks have gotten cold. In Vancouver's case, the quality of their shots has decreased as well, a significant contributor to their 28th-place ranking offensively.

I would think the conclusion from all this is that at least from short range, shot type doesn't make as much of a difference, and that a team's fortunes can change quickly from one year to the next. Again, we'll want to see how the rest of the year shakes out before getting too declarative about any lessons learned here, but in the meantime, it provides fodder for the "why our offense is sucking wind" conversations...

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Holding Myself Accountable

Since we're not just getting ready to flip the calendar over to 2007, but we're also approaching the midpoint of the NHL Regular Season, I thought I'd check in on some of my pre-season predictions to publicly bolster or humiliate myself (probably some of both, I imagine). So here we go...

MISCELLANEOUS PREDICTIONS
First Coach To Be Fired (Trent Yawney): Ken Hitchcock and Gerard Gallant beat him to the street, but he didn't even make it into December, so I'll give myself partial credit on that one.

Most Improved Team (St. Louis Blues): Whoops! The Blues were at the bottom of the heap last year, and they're 2nd worst in the NHL right now, with a winning percentage of .375. The most improved teams this year are the freakishly mighty Anaheim Ducks (who went from .598 to .795 WP), and the suddenly mediocre Pittsburgh Penguins (.354 to .514).

Most Disappointing Team (Tampa Bay Lightning): Disappointing can be a relative term, based on expectations, but, two seasons after winning the Stanley Cup, the Lightning are indeed sinking below .500, and out of playoff contention. I'll give myself credit on this one, although I'm sure many would dub the Philadelphia Flyers as the biggest bomb of 2006-07.

Most Improved Player (Alex Tanguay): Whoops, again. Or maybe I was misquoted when I said, "40 goals and 50 assists." I really meant 14 goals, not 40, right? Currently, the most improved players in terms of Points Per Game are Daniel Cleary (.71 vs. .19 last year) and Martin Havlat (went from 0.89 to 1.41).

Comeback Player (Sergei Fedorov): Fedorov's production is indeed up from last season, and we'll have to see how his working relationship with Ken Hitchcock pans out. With 25 points in 30 games, he's approaching the point-per-game pace, and his shooting percentage is back up to 13.8 (slightly above his career mark of 12.4), up from 8.5 last year. I'll give myself a thumbs-up on this one, although you have to note the outstanding season that Alexei Yashin's having as well on Long Island.

"Don't Come Back" Player (Jeremy Roenick): Looks like I nailed that one, folks.

REGULAR SEASON AWARDS

Presidents' Trophy (Carolina Hurricanes): Yikes! The Hurricanes are 11th in the league, and Anaheim is lapping the field. It looks like I'll miss that one.

Art Ross Trophy (Jaromir Jagr): Jagr is certainly in the scoring race mix, in second place behind Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby.

Calder Memorial Trophy (Evgeni Malkin): Malkin's having a sensational rookie season, and would probably be considered the favorite at this point, although L.A.'s Anze Kopitar is tied for the rookie scoring lead with Malkin at 33 points. We've got a long ways to go in this race, however, and dark horses like Jordan Staal and Alexander Radulov may make some noise.

Frank J. Selke Trophy (Kris Draper): Draper's offensive production has dropped back down to his typical 5-15 goal level, so I doubt he'll be strongly considered for the Selke. It usually seems to be the reward for a lock-down defensive forward who pots 20-30 goals to boot.

Hart Memorial Trophy (Chris Pronger): He's the stud defenseman on the best team in the league, and he's putting up better offensive totals than teammate Scott Niedermayer. That sure sounds like an MVP to me - I feel good about this one.

Jack Adams Award (Jim Playfair): Calgary has been a bit of a disappointment so far, so this pick is clearly going to be a miss. There are probably 5 or 6 good candidates here, including Ted Nolan, Barry Trotz, Randy Carlyle, and Guy Carbonneau.

James Norris Memorial Trophy (Chris Pronger): No problem with that pick so far...

Maurice Richard Trophy (Jaromir Jagr): I recently broke down the contenders for the goal-scoring title, and Jagr is still a contender, but Alexander Ovechkin, Marian Hossa, Brendan Shanahan and Martin St. Louis are setting a frenetic pace. At this point, I'm starting to doubt my chances.

Vezina Trophy (Tomas Vokoun): Vokoun's hand injury has pretty much eliminated him from any chance at the Vezina, so this will be a miss. Who knows, if he fails to come back, maybe his backup Chris Mason might get a shot (2nd in the NHL in Save Percentage).

William M. Jennings Trophy (Dominik Hasek & Chris Osgood): The tandem award for fewest goals against seems a good bet for the Red Wings duo (2.11 GA/G), with San Jose in 2nd at 2.19.

DIVISION WINNERS

Atlantic (New York Rangers): The Rangers currently sit 3rd behind New Jersey and the New York Islanders and with a subpar defense, I don't like their chances so much right now. Whoops...

Northeast (Ottawa Senators): First in the Northeast? I meant last, right? Double whoops...

Southeast (Carolina Hurricanes): The Hurricanes sit in 2nd behind the Atlanta Thrashers, but boast a 5-game winning streak and seem to be firing on all cylinders. It'll go down to the wire.

Central (Nashville Predators): The Predators have maintained a modest gap over Detroit for a while now, and have taken advantage of tremendous depth to pile up the points despite injuries to Tomas Vokoun and Jason Arnott, among others. This seems like a solid pick.

Northwest (Calgary Flames): At the time of this writing, all five teams in the Northwest are within 1 point in the standings! I give myself no better than a 20% chance of being correct on this one. Based on Expected Win % (using GF/GA ratio), one would say that Colorado and Calgary should pull away from the field, but that's just not happening yet.

Pacific (Anaheim Ducks): Despite quality opposition in San Jose and Dallas, the Ducks should wrap this up easily.

BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER
So what's the final tally? All in all, I count 22 predictions above. On 10 of them, I seriously doubt I'm going to be correct at season's end. Another 8 I'd say are solid picks with a good chance of being right, and the other 4 are in that middling area (like the Art Ross or Calder picks). 8 for 22 is .363, right? If this were baseball, I'd be an All-Star...

Cheer up, it's the holidays...

Why is it that various media outlets continue trying to put their own spin on the "what's wrong with the NHL" story? Our latest example comes from The Hockey News, in a piece by Jay Greenburg entitled, "Excitement Level On The Decline."

Take the opening sentence:

Attendance is down and yet still up from before the lockout, leaving it arguable whether buildings in New Jersey and Florida are half-full or half empty.

It's no surprise that attendance is down from last season, particularly if you compare the first half of 2005-06 to the first half of this year. Coming out of the lockout, there were legions of fans starved to see the on-ice product, particularly in light of the massive rule changes. This year is more indicative of business as usual, so the fact that the league is above pre-lockout levels is a positive. Toss in the projection that overall revenues are increasing despite a 1% decrease in attendance, and I'd say that paying fans have come back to the game. Yes, there are certain trouble spots that need to turn things around, but the league as a whole seems healthy.

Frankly, I wonder if some of these critics who harp on attendance figures expect the numbers to grow by leaps and bounds every year. Considering that almost 2/3rds of the league is playing to over 90% capacity for their home games, it's not like there's a huge amount of room to grow that that number. The three best candidates to improve their situation would appear to be...

1) the Nashville Predators, which, once football season is over, will have the undivided attention of local fans and will be vying for their first Central Division title,
2) the New York Islanders, who aren't just surging on the ice under Ted Nolan, but are perhaps working harder than any team in the league right now to win back fans, and
3) the Chicago Blackhawks, who are off to a promising start under new coach Denis Savard, and have a huge fan base to draw from. In a city of 9.4 million, it shouldn't take too much to fill the United Center more often. Then again, they do have Bill Wirtz at the helm, so perhaps I'm being optimistic here.

But back to Greenburg's column, which appears determined to paint a picture of a failing league that's headed back to the defensive, clutch-and-grab days of the 1990's:

Since the NHL does not keep decibel levels, all we have to go on are goals, which are what people most cheer. There were 6.05 scored per game in the first 296 contests this season, down .23 from the first quarter of 2005-06, when the final regular season average was 6.05, up almost one per game from the pre-lockout season.

So goal scoring is equal to last season's overall total? Boo-hoo! He seems upset that the pace from the first quarter of last season hasn't been equaled, but again, coming out of the lockout with numerous rule changes, those initial months don't make a good basis for comparison. Besides, if you think about what Greenburg wrote there, it suggests that scoring is actually on its way up:

If the rate from the first quarter of last year was 6.28 (6.05 + 0.23), and the overall figure for 2005-06 was 6.05, that means that for the last three quarters of that season, scoring was around 5.97. So if you look at this year so far (6.05) compared to that figure, it appears that scoring is increasing. You had an early breakout of goal-scoring as teams tried out new strategies, then as defensive schemes adjusted, those numbers dipped. This season, they appear to be up again, slightly. Certainly, we don't see a host of 2-1, 1-0 trapping affairs like we had in the past. Did Greenburg even notice last week's thriller in Edmonton, with the Avalanche winning a 7-6, "last goal wins" scoring fest over the Oilers?

Speaking of the Oilers, I don't quite understand this assertion:

The horse got out of the barn when the league grew from 21 to 30 teams, putting more franchises into survival mode, diminishing the chances of spectacular accidents like the 1980s Edmonton Oilers. Now, the cap has closed the door on a team with a lot of horses ever getting back in.

I would submit that the pre-salary cap days were more conducive to "putting more franchises into survival mode," as teams like Calgary and Edmonton cried poor and bemoaned any chance of prolonged success. As to assembling a team like those 80's Oilers, yes, you won't see those teams stick together for 10 years anymore, but that's a fact of modern professional sports more than any particular NHL issue. And it's not like the pendulum has swung completely to the mercenary world where the roster changes over wholesale year after year. Look at the current Detroit Red Wings, for example, and you can still find 5 players from their 1997 Stanley Cup roster, 25% of the nightly lineup.

I just wish we could go a couple weeks without another screed from the mainstream media about how lousy the NHL is. If you can't see the difference between today's NHL and the pre-lockout action, perhaps you shouldn't be writing about it.

Monday, December 25, 2006

Olde Tyme Defensive Hockey

You've gotta love this picture from David Guralnik of the Detroit News from the recent Red Wings/Wild game. The caption reads,

Minnesota's Stephane Veileux lost his stick under the Red Wings bench during the game on December 22. He had a little trouble retrieving it and starting swinging, which landed him in the penalty box.

And yes, that's future Hall of Fame pest Chris Chelios whose foot is on Veileux's stick.

Friday, December 22, 2006

Catching Up With PythagenPuck

As we approach the end of the year, I thought I'd look back at a previous post, and examine to what extent any (or all) of the predictions made are actually bearing fruit. Back in November, I looked at Expected Win % as a function of Goals For and Goals Against, comparing each team's actual winning percentage against what the PythagenPuck formula would predict. Typically, if you've got the team-by-team Goals For and Against numbers across an entire season, PythagenPuck calculates a winning percentage that is within 2-3% of actual results. As a simple example, if you have a team that's getting outscored on average, but is over .500 (by winning close games and losing by blowouts), it's a good bet that if that scoring trend holds, the win/loss record will sink below .500 over time.

The numbers from last month (when teams had played 16-21 games) basically indicated that the disappointing Ottawa Senators were due for a rebound, as they were the runaway underperformers in the NHL, whereas Boston, Nashville, and New Jersey stood out as being overperformers. In other words, they were winning more games than you'd expect, based on their Goals For/Against ratio. The table below reflects those figures along with updated numbers as of the games of 12/21, with teams having played 32-37 games each, roughly twice as many as from the initial analysis.

The "Nov. Exp/Act Gap" shows the difference between the actual winning percentage, and that predicted by PythagenPuck, with the underperforming Ottawa Senators shaded pink, and the overachievers shaded green. And remember, I've removed points from Shootout Wins from these numbers. You can count on anywhere from 0-10 points from SO Wins in any given season, but I'll be damned if I can figure out how to predict it.

Looking at the Current side of the table, we have updated information. The 3 teams shaded green in each column are those whose numbers have improved the most since the November article, whereas the 3 teams with steepest declines are shaded pink. So here's a few observations:

Current Expected Win %: The big leap here has been made by the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have improved their Goals For and Goals Against by about a third of a goal per game each since Gerard Gallant was let go as coach. The Boston Bruins and New York Islanders have also made huge improvements as well. On the downside, the Dallas Stars have cooled off considerably, going from .672 to .579. This has almost entirely been due to a defense that started off with a ridiculously low 1.8 Goals Against/Game, which has now crept above 2.2 (still outstanding, but not freakishly so). Minnesota and Atlanta have seen offensive dropoffs, leading to their lowered results here.

Current Actual Win %: Again, the biggest jump is by Columbus, as expected by their improvement in GF/GA. Look at the Ottawa Senators, though. Their Win % has jumped from .389 to .472, even though their GF/GA ratio has worsened slightly! That's because the Gap between Expected and Actual has closed from -.161 to -.048, which is a much more normal figure. They've been playing decently all along, and now "the breaks" are rewarding those efforts. Granted, they're not a 100-point team, but at least they have a shot to make the playoffs. The biggest fall has been by the Toronto Maple Leafs, caused mostly by a Goals Against figure that has jumped about 10% (3.34 vs. 3.05 in November).

Current Exp/Act Gap: As noted before, the faraway winner here is the Senators, who were horribly snakebit early, and are now only modestly so. Losing Jason Spezza to injury won't help in the short term, but again, at least they're in the playoff mix. The other major upside move was made by Vancouver. Yup, that's right, Canucks fans, you should consider yourselves incredibly lucky to have a 17-17-1 team!

Another note about that Current Exp/Act Gap column is that the teams at the top are currently underperforming, while those at the bottom are overperforming. So the Avalanche, Wild, and Senators should expect their fortunes to improve if they keep up their GF/GA pace, while the Capitals, Canucks, and Bruins will likely revert closer to their Expected Win % unless things radically change. Note, in particular, how the Bruins are in the process of coming back to the pack. In November, their Gap was 0.119, while today it has closed to 0.082.

Going back to the predictions from that November piece, I'd say the Senators prediction has largely come to pass. Despite slightly worse numbers for Goals For and Against, their actual winning percentage shot up by 83 points. As to the teams that were overachieving at that time, the New Jersey Devils, Boston Bruins, and Nashville Predators have significantly improved their GF/GA ratio, which has brought their Expected Win % up closer to their actual numbers. It's interesting to note that of these 4 "extreme" teams from November, three of them posted the biggest "gap shrinkage", meaning that those outlying cases are indeed trending back towards the PythagenPuck prediction.

I'll check back again on this closer to the three-quarter point of the season, and if I had to make a call today, I'd take a stab and say that Calgary and Colorado should start to pull away from the pack in the Northwest, Anaheim should continue stretching out their lead in the Western Conference, and Washington will start to fade from playoff contention. The cracks in their defense are becoming ever more apparent, and are probably to severe for Olie Kolzig to carry this team all the way into the top eight in the East.

Labels: NHL Standings, statistics

Thursday Night Fights: Predators/Sabres

After pasting the Predators 7-2 last night, many on the Buffalo Sabres are calling for a suspension for Predators forward Scott Nichol, who sucker-punched Jaroslev Spacek late in the 3rd period. Basically, Spacek used his stick to drive Nichol into the Sabres' goalpost, and Nichol popped right back up, came at Spacek from behind and punched him right in the jaw, setting off a fracas that resulted in Nichol drawing 2, 5, 10 and a game, and the Sabres finishing the game with a major power play, on which they scored twice.

If anyone can find a video link to post in here, I'd appreciate it (this story at TSN has a highlight clip), because there's one question that nags at me coming out of this incident: Why, after driving Nichol into the goalpost and hearing the play whistled dead, does Spacek just stand there looking down the ice? You'd think he'd keep an eye on Nichol, first to see if he was OK, second to see if he was going to come after him like he did. At the very least he should have expected a standoff and some face-washing from his opponent.

That said, of course Nichol deserves a suspension. He was angry, and let his emotions get the better of him for a couple moments. It happens to a lot of players, and they get a game (or five) suspension as a result. When the word comes down, he should sit down and not fight it.

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Season's Greetings

The posts will be few and far between through the weekend, but I've got a couple ideas in the pipeline for tomorrow. For now, I wanted to let the Little Forecheckers send along our hopes that all of you enjoy a safe and happy holiday season:

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Random late-night thoughts

No in-depth stats tonight, just a few scattered thoughts after having watched the Ducks wallop the Stars 4-1:

1. What a traffic jam in the Northwest, where only 2 points separate the 5 teams, and only Calgary would even qualify as a playoff team in the East at this point. It may not be the best division in the NHL, but it sure will be fun to watch down the stretch...

2. Where did all this talk of expanding the goal net come from? Hockey fans don't need more goals, they need more up-and-down action, which is what the post-lockout NHL is delivering. I'd say keep things as they are for a couple more years before making any more big changes. The only minor change I'd recommend is to take another swipe at reducing goaltending equipment, but that's probably a pretty minor effect.

3. James Mirtle points us over to an automated tool for voting Rory Fitzpatrick into the All-Star Game. While I think the campaign is great, this aspect is troubling. It could turn the whole vote into a mess (it should be easily copyable for other candidates), and the NHL would likely be able to solve this to a large extent by limiting votes to one-per-day, requiring some kind of verification. Besides, this just erodes the whole "grassroots internet movement" angle that made it so fun.

4. Nashville now owns the best home ice record in the league (9-1-3), the 4th best offense in Goals Per Game, a talented (albeit young) defense, and is getting great goaltending, even while Tomas Vokoun has been on the shelf. All this adds up to loads of pressure on Barry Trotz to take this team deep into the playoffs this spring.

5. How dominant is Anaheim thus far? Check out the rankings in Goal Differential (Goals For/Game minus Goals Against/Game), and see that the Ducks' +1.31 mark is a far stretch ahead of 2nd place San Jose at +0.88. Also interesting to note is that while all the individual scoring leaders appear to be in the East, 5 of the Top 6 teams in Goal Differential are in the West...

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Don't miss out on Missed Shots

Following up on this morning's post regarding top shooters and how often they actually put shots on net, here's a table showing this year's results so far. Again, I've taken the Top 30 players by Shooting Percentage, brought in their Missed Shot totals, and calculated a Total Shooting Percentage for each. The original ranking is in the leftmost column, the new Total rankings are towards the right, and the final column shows the portion of a player's shots that miss, and thus aren't counted in the regular stat. Players with green shading moved up through the rankings based on the new measure, and put a higher proportion of their shots on goal.

What jumps out looking at these numbers is the performance of Mike Comrie of the Phoenix Coyotes - only 4 Missed Shots in 18 games, along with a conventional shooting percentage of 18.2%! He's not getting a ton of chances, but it appears he's certainly making the most of them.

On the downside, check out Chicago's Jeffrey Hamilton, and Boston's P.J. Axelsson. Over a third of their shots are high & wide, contrary to their conventional shooting percentage which sits in the coveted 19-20% range. One difference between this year's numbers and last season's is that many of the top snipers are missing the net more than 30% of the time, including Martin Straka and Thomas Vanek. Granted, we're not quite halfway through the year, so this may change over time.

As to what causes some of these players to miss the net more than others, that would take more of a detailed, scouting-type analysis. For instance, some may be trying to pick hard-to-hit areas of the net, while others may be putting all they've got into brutal slapshots that either bore a hole through a goalie's glove or sail wide. So how's your favorite sniper faring this year?

A Look at Total Shooting Percentage

It seems that any time you try and discuss the most effective shooters in the NHL, people gravitate to how "hard" or "heavy" the shot is, at the expense of other considerations, like how quickly shots are released or how accurate they are. Booming slapshots are more impressive to most than a quick wrister, so the trend is somewhat understandable.

Today's piece focuses on bringing in Missed Shots into the overall shooting percentage statistic. Normally, Shooting Percentage is defined as Goals divided by Shots on Goal. But what about shots that miss the net by three feet? Those aren't counted in the usual Shooting Percentage, so I've brought each players Missed Shots total and included that in a "Total Shots" column, which then yields "Total Shooting %" as well. Our data comes from the stats available at NHL.com - pulling together summary stats for the top 830 players ranked by shots on goal (this takes us down to guys with only 1 shot on goal all year, so I'm confident it covers over 99% of the data), linked to the RTSS stats that are also available. I do have one bone to pick with the guys at
NHL.com, as when you start pulling down page after page of stats, they switch the ordering of columns from one page to the next, apparently in an attempt to throw up an obstacle to mass access to the data. It doesn't work, as it takes about 10 minutes of work in Excel or Open Office to fix the columns. I've sent an email to their web team to see if that can be rectified, and will post whatever response I get here.

In total, besides the 73,744 "conventional" shots on goal, 7,442 Goals and an overall Shooting Percentage of 10.09%, there were an additional 29,725 Missed Shots. With our new figure of 103,469 Total Shots, that means 28.7% of those missed the net entirely, and 7.2% scored.
The table below shows the Top 30 players from last season, ranked by Total Shooting Percentage. The Rank column along the left reflects the conventional Shooting Percentage rank, and those players shaded green or pink moved significantly up or down in the standings once we bring Missed Shots into the equation. Also on the far right, we see the overall portion of shots that miss the net, with highest values in pink and lowest in green. So who are the standouts, both positive and negative?

First off, note that the Top 11 in conventional shooting percentage all fared well in the Total Shooting % stat. League leader Alex Tanguay still came out at the top of the list, since only 21.9% of his shots missed the net. In particular, Pierre Turgeon of the Colorado Avalanche missed only 16.8% of the time, well below the rest of this group. On the wild side, the "hit or miss" gang appears to be Toronto's Matt Stajan and Chad Kilger, and Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk, who shot wide or high over a third of the time.

One often-cited piece of conventional hockey wisdom is that guys with big, booming slapshots may miss the net quite a bit, but make up the difference with a shot that is more likely to score when it is on target. I didn't find anything to help support that theory (no correlation between Missed Shot levels and Shooting Percentage), and drilling down into further detail (i.e. comparing slapshots, to wristers, etc.) isn't possible because when the NHL records a Missed Shot, we don't know the shot type or distance involved.

I'll follow up later today with a similar table from this season so far...

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Desist with the assists...

Over at the Globe on Hockey blog, James Mirtle posited the natural question as to whether Sid Crosby is now the NHL's best player, given his showcase 6-point performance against Philadelphia the other night, and his ascension to the top of the NHL scoring race.

Not to poo-poo what Sid the Kid has accomplished so far this year, but I thought I'd slice up one section of the scoring race, and present the results. To what extent it helps answer Mirtle's question I leave as an exercise for the reader.

Below I've divided up the assist totals between "first" and "second" assists. The feeling among some is that 1st Assists are more directly linked to the creation of a goal, and that 2nd Assists are more often than not "cheapies" that are unrelated to the creation of an offensive chance. Actually, I recall a goal back in the 1990's where Bob Errey cut in front of the net just as Steve Yzerman let off a shot. Errey jumped in front of the goalie, and the puck caromed off his cup and into the net, so I guess even goals can be gifts as well.

Anyways, what I've presented below is a breakdown of the Top 30 Assist leaders, with breakouts of their 1st vs. 2nd, as well as the percentage that are 1st Assists. The "Mod Pts" column shows what the point standings would look like if 2nd Assists weren't counted. Anyone care to comment back with when 2nd Assists did start getting recorded?

Under this "Old Time Hockey" scoring, Teemu Selanne of the Anaheim Ducks would actually leap into the #1 spot, just ahead of Atlanta's Marian Hossa. Crosby is still within another Flyers game of catching them, only 3 points back.

As always, click to enlarge, and discuss amongst yourselves...

Long as in... short

Thanks, TSN, now I have to clean off my monitor, after reading the intro to this article about the latest Phoenix Coyotes debacle, and spewing my drink as a result:

"Jeremy Roenick's decision to walk out on the Phoenix Coyotes
Tuesday night could have long term ramifications for his career in
Arizona."

Who said anything about Jeremy Roenick having any kind of "long term" career left in him? JR's been one of the great stars of the NHL for the last 15 years or so, but coming out of the lockout he didn't do anything for the Kings last year, and clearly is a step behind the modern game.

If I was in his shoes and got scratched, I'd head out and get a nice dinner, too - why settle for lousy, overpriced arena food?

It's (long past) time for JR to transition into being a TV analyst, which is probably something he could do rather well. He's also been a "good quote", and the NHL is desperately in need of entertaining, insightful (not to mention American) talent to help sell the game in the U.S.

As Off Wing Opinion highlights today, youth hockey in the U.S. is in dire straits. Perhaps JR would also make a good spokesman for those efforts.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Which teams are tickling the twine?

Nothing's more frustrating for a hockey fan than to see their team get a great opportunity, only to see them plug the puck squarely into the opposing goalie's chest. By continuing our use of the Shot Quality concept, we can look at what kinds of chances various NHL teams are creating, and how often they are scoring on them.

Granted, the ability of a player to get a good shot off can be determined by the quality of a pass he receives, just as much as the strength and accuracy of his shot. By looking at this measure on a team-by-team basis, we put those factors into the same basket. Another issue which clouds this analysis somewhat is the unbalanced schedule. Getting to play Phoenix and Los Angeles all the time is going to work in the favor of teams like Anaheim, San Jose, and Dallas. That said, here's a slightly more detailed look at team offensive performance than you'll typically see looking only at Shots For and Goals For...

First off, the columns:

Shots For/G: Basic stat right off of NHL.com, as of last Sunday night.

Average SQ: The average percentage that those shots would have scored, based on overall percentages from last season. Again, as an example, wrist shots from 10 feet or less scored 24.79% of the time, so similar shots this season receive that value. Take all of a team's shots this season, broken down by range and shot type (wrist, slap, etc.), and this represents the average value.

Shoot %: Basic stat, Goals For/Shots For.

Shooter Diff: The difference between actual Shoot % and Average SQ. Positive values here indicate teams that score more goals than you'd expect given the type of shots they're taking (the snipers).

Expected GF/G: This is simply Average SQ times Shots For/G. Given average shooting, this would be a team's Goals For/Game.

Actual GF/G: Basic stat right off of NHL.com

Shooter Diff: The difference between actual and expected GF/G, differing from the earlier Shooter Diff column due to the number of shots taken.

Following my convention, the top performers in each column are shaded green, the laggards are shaded pink.

Looking around at some of the extreme performers, the Chicago Blackhawks make for an interesting case. Near the bottom in Shots For and Shot Quality, their Expected Goals For is worst in the league, tied with Edmonton. Superior sniping, however, brings them up close to a middle-of-the-pack Actual Goals For. Adding Peter Bondra might help, but perhaps there is some talent there that new coach Denis Savard can work with, after all...

The hottest shooters in the league apparently reside in Buffalo (surprise, surprise), where actual Shooting Percentage is 3.63% above their Shot Quality, yielding them a full goal-per-game over what average shooting would provide. Whether that margin can be maintained over the course of the next several months will be key to their keeping up the torrid pace they set in the early weeks of the season.

Other standouts include the (truly mighty) Anaheim Ducks; they are 4th in Shots For, 2nd in Shot Quality, and with a shooting percentage that is basically average, that lands them the 2nd-most Goals For/Game in the league. This is a seat-of-the-pants hunch, but I would suggest that Anaheim's offensive performance is likely to be more durable than Buffalo's. The Sabres' hot shooting is so far above the rest of the league (their Shooter Diff in Goals/Game is more than twice that of 2nd-place Nashville), it looks like a hot streak that is bound to cool off. Again, just a hunch, but I'll check back on this in a couple months.

The recent offensive drought in Toronto may well be due to Shot Quality more than anything else. While 2nd in the league in Shots For, their Shot Quality is 6th-worst at 9.25%, and with subpar shooting, they're left with a middling 3.00 Goals/Game.

The goals seem especially hard to come by in Vancouver, where Shooting Percentage is a league-low 6.93%, 2.5% below what their Shot Quality would dictate. Instead of boasting an average offense (2.95 Expected Goals/Game vs. 2.92 Average), they're worst in the NHL at 2.17 Goals/Game. I'll leave it to Canucks fans to discuss which of the departures of Todd Bertuzzi, Ed Jovanovski or Anson Carter had more to do with this.

As always, take a look at your favorite team's results, and ponder what they might need from Santa this holiday season. A wicked sniper? A playmaking center? Just remember, even jolly old Santa has to abide by the salary cap....

Click to Enlarge

Monday, December 11, 2006

In defense of Defense

So who are the best defensive teams in the NHL this year? A quick look at the Goals Allowed standings is a decent place to start, but if we dig into the details of shots given up by each team (both quantity and quality), we get a better picture of which teams are truly locking down their opponents, and which ones are getting bailed out by stellar goaltending. The folks over at Hockey Analytics first looked into this area back in 2004, and I'm taking a look at the 2006-7 NHL Regular Season to date here.

First, a quick guide through the columns, then we'll get to the analysis:

Team: A bunch of guys who get paid a king's ransom to play the greatest game on earth. If you actually needed to read this, I'm guessing your Googling has gone pretty far awry...

Shots Against/G: Shots Against Per Game, straight off of NHL.com as of Sunday night.

SQ Allowed: This is the average Shot Quality allowed on each shot by a given team. I'm using my values which probably vary slightly from what the Hockey Analytics folks would use, but the difference should be negligible. As an example, a wrist shot from within 10 feet of the net has a SQ of 24.79%, as that percentage of those shots scored overall during the 2005-6 season. The higher this number, the more dangerous are the shots that a team is giving up.

Shoot % Allowed: This is the shooting percentage against a given team.

Goalie Diff: This shows the difference in opponents' shooting percentage and Shot Quality Allowed. Where those numbers are negative, that suggests the goaltenders are stopping more shots than you'd expect from an average NHL performance.

Expected GA/G: This is simply Shots Against/Game times SQ Allowed, which gives us the Goals Against you'd see from average NHL goaltending.

Actual GA/G: Goals Against Per Game, straight off of NHL.com.

Goalie Diff: This "Goalie Diff" column shows the difference in goals allowed between actual and an average NHL goaltending performance. This varies from the earlier "Goalie Diff" column based on the number of shots that a team allows.

The top 3 teams in each column are shaded green, while the worst 3 are shaded pink.

So what do the numbers tell us here?

On the team defensive front, we usually look at Shots Against as a reliable guide, and it's a generally useful stat. By adding in Shot Quality, however, we see a team like the Montreal Canadiens, who give up the 2nd-most shots per game (33.7), but have the 3rd-best SQ Allowed. The Canadiens just aren't allowing as many shots from prime scoring locations, and with the benefit of standout goaltending as well, their Goals Against is a reasonable 2.66, slightly below the league average of 2.88! At the other end of that scale, we see that some teams may give up relatively few shots, but those shots are particularly dangerous (like Carolina and the New York Rangers). The true standouts in this two-pronged view of team defense are to be found in the Expected GA/Game column, where teams like the Calgary Flames jump from merely average in Shots Against to 5th-best, based on the quality of the shots they're giving up.

Switching over our view to goaltending, you have to feel for blueliners on the Los Angeles Kings. Their SQ Allowed is a very respectable 9.21% (4th-best), but opponents are shooting a league-best 12.11% against them. Dan Cloutier has been particularly disastrous so far (.865 save percentage), while Mathieu Garon has been middling at best. The silver lining here is that perhaps if they could improve the situation in net, things could turn dramatically for the club. The rest of the pieces are in place for a stingy Goals-Against, but the goaltending is letting them down.

Similar goaltending quagmires abound in Philadelphia and Phoenix, but that's hardly news (Dead Horse, meet Mr. Stick). Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Toronto also are allowing a full percentage point higher shooting percentage than should be expected, so at least for the Maple Leafs, they have more than just a recent lack of offense to blame for their woes. If you look at the Lightning, you'll see they boast a wonderful Shots Against/Game figure (26.5, 3rd best), but shoddy work in net puts them in the middle of the pack in Goals Against. It makes one wonder how the locker room morale will hold up in such a situation - will the team continue to battle in front of their lackluster backstop, or vent frustration over seeing their hard work go to waste when another weak shot goes in?

On the positive front, the biggest stories are in Anaheim, San Jose, and Nashville, where goaltending is shaving nearly a half goal per game off of what would otherwise be expected. Top defensive teams like Detroit and Dallas (1st and 2nd in Shots Allowed) benefit from above-average goaltending as well, pushing their GA/Game down near the 2.00 mark.

So take a look at your favorite team's results, and ponder where the room for improvement lies on the defensive end. Are they giving up lots of shots? Are they dangerous shots? Is the goalie holding up his end of the bargain? Every team's got a hole somewhere...

Click to Enlarge

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Rocket Richard Trophy Contenders: Quick & Dirty

Over the last few days I've broken down the NHL's leading goal-scorers, in an attempt to see who will contend for the Rocket Richard Trophy this season. For clarity's sake, I thought I'd gather the results here so you can get an overall picture. As a reminder, this list is drawn from the Top 24 on the goal-scoring list as of last Sunday night.

The Favorite
Marian Hossa, Atlanta Thrashers

Prime Contenders
Ilya Kovalchuk, Atlanta Thrashers
Brendan Shanahan & Jaromir Jagr, New York Rangers
Simon Gagne, Philadelphia Flyers
Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals

Dark Horse
Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay Lightning

Second-Tier Contenders
Teemu Selanne, Anaheim Ducks
Eric Staal, Carolina Hurricanes
Dany Heatley, Ottawa Senators

Unlikely To Contend
Chris Kunitz, Anaheim Ducks
Glen Murray, Boston Bruins
Chris Drury, Buffalo Sabres
Brian Rolston, Minnesota Wild

Expected To Fade
Thomas Vanek, Buffalo Sabres
Alexander Frolov, Los Angeles Kings
Darcy Tucker, Toronto Maple Leafs

Out Of The Running
Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames
Ryan Smyth, Edmonton Oilers
Jason Blake, New York Islanders
Martin Straka, New York Rangers
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins
Patrick Marleau, San Jose Sharks
Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning

The chart below shows some of the information used in this analysis (Shots Pace, Time on Ice, etc.). Click to enlarge...

Our Final Richard Trophy Contestants...

And now, our review of the early-season goal scoring leaders concludes with our final seven contenders for the Rocket Richard Trophy, tied with 13 goals apiece (as of last Sunday night, from whence all these stats are taken). I'll follow up after this with another post summarizing the results, so you can come back months later and see whether this holds any water or not...

Jaromir Jagr, New York Rangers: Yeah, like this guy ever led the league in anything! Jagr's shoulder trouble is the only forseeable obstacle to his contending for the goal-scoring lead this year. He's got enough talent around him to get the puck, and he's on pace once again to post somewhere around 350 shots. His shooting percentage has typically been in the 12-15% range over the last five years (sometimes even higher before that), and his average Shot Quality of 12.48% would indicate that he'll probably end up in the same range this season. He gets 6:30 of power play time per game, good for third-best among our contenders, and will constantly be pushed by Brendan Shanahan as they climb further into the career scoring stratosphere. Prognosis: Prime Contender

Teemu Selanne, Anaheim Ducks: The Finnish Flash came back from the lockout last year looking more like his late-90's self, sniping his way to 40 goals. This year, the potent Anaheim power play helps his cause even more. He already has 10 PP goals, as opposed to 18 in all of last year. His Shot Quality of 13.71% ranks 13th among players with 50+ shots, so he's getting those dangerous opportunities which should help his shooting percentage stay somewhere in the 12-17% range. The only thing holding him back from serious contending for the title is that he doesn't get as many shots as some of the other elite scorers. He hasn't topped the 300-shot mark since his ridiculous rookie season in Winnipeg (76 goals on 387 shots), and is on track for around 275 this year. Prognosis: Second-Tier Contender

Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning: A regular member of the 30-goal club at the age of 26, Lecavalier may well be entering his prime years as an NHL scorer. There's not much to his performance this year, however, that would make one think he's ready to jump to the 50-goal plateau that has usually been required of a Richard Trophy winner. He's tracking for just over 300 shots (just like last year), along with a 12-13% shooting percentage that is in line with his results over the last 5 years. Given his Shot Quality so far of 10.73%, that shooting percentage probably won't budge much higher, so for Lecavalier, a 40-goal season would make for a nice step forward. Prognosis: Not In The Running

Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames: The only active two-time winner of the Richard Trophy, Iginla bears the burden of playing within an anemic offense. Among our contenders, only Simon Gagne's Flyers boast a more sluggish assault. While his opportunities for success would appear similar to last year (total shots right around 300, one less shift/game on the PK, one more at even strength), his shooting percentage of 14.6% is slightly more positive, so he's currently cashing in more often. His overall Shot Quality so far comes in at 11.22%, so I wouldn't expect that to go any higher, unless something drastic happens in Calgary, like a personnel or strategic change. Prognosis: Not In The Running

Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins: What to make of a dynamic rookie with no prior North American experience? Well, the early weeks have been exciting, and the Penguins certainly seem committed to giving Malkin every chance to produce. He's on a pace to fire over 250 shots, and gets 6:38 on the power play each game (second only to Ilya Kovalchuk among Richard Trophy contenders). His early shooting percentage of 17.6% seems a tad on the fortunate side, however, given his average Shot Quality of 11.59. He's taking above-average shots, but not as regularly dangerous as Martin St. Louis, Chris Kunitz, or Martin Straka, who all boast SQ above 14%. Unless Malkin proves out to be a truly outstanding sniper, I'd expect that shooting percentage to come back down a bit, and for him to finish somewhere around the 35-goal mark. Not bad for a rookie, but no chance at leading the league. Prognosis: Not In The Running

Brian Rolston, Minnesota Wild: Wild seems a perfect word to describe Rolston's shooting - he's firing often (on track for 375 shots), but his shooting percentage is the lowest among the goal-scoring leaders at 10.9%. And before you say that perhaps that means he could get hot, and a boost up to 12-14% would give him a real chance at pouring in more goals, I'd caution that his Shot Quality so far this year stands at only 8.08, easily the lowest of this group. You have to also wonder what the effect will be once Marian Gaborik comes back from injury. Will Rolston still get those opportunities, or will he benefit from the additional scoring threat? It's hard to say, but overall I don't see much upside to Rolston's chances here. Prognosis: Unlikely To Contend

Glen Murray, Boston Bruins: Murray has been scoring goals in bunches ever since coming over to Boston from L.A., and he has a chance to make this his best season yet. He's getting a little less ice time than last season, but the reduction has largely been on the penalty kill, which should allow him to focus more energy on the offensive end of things. His current pace for 285 shots would mark the 2nd-highest total of his career (vs. 331 when he scored 44 goals in 2002-3), and his shooting percentage currently stands at 14.9%, which is somewhat higher than his SQ of 9.97, but not absurdly so. I don't have his SQ ratings for recent seasons, where his shooting percentage has ranged from 12.3-16.5%, so his current rate doesn't strike me as out of line. Unless he starts firing an extra shot per game, however, I only see him challenging that 44-goal personal high, not having a shot at the Richard Trophy. Prognosis: Unlikely To Contend

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Get Out The Vote...

The crew over at On Frozen Blog are hosting an interesting exercise this month - they want your vote on an All-Time lineup:

Imagine yourself as coach of a team tied late in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. There’s one minute left. At your disposal for the game’s final shift you have any five skaters from the NHL’s past or present. In their prime. Of course you’ll need a premiere backstopper as well. Use any criteria of your choosing, but the bottom line is: you’re trying to punch one home with one final push and earn Lord Stanley’s glory.

For the record, I went with Bobby Hull/Wayne Gretzky/Gordie Howe up front, Bobby Orr and Nicklas Lidstrom on D, and Dominik Hasek in net. Get over there and leave your vote in the comments...

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Keep Putting the Biscuit in the Basket...

Continuing our review of the NHL's leading goal scorers and their prospects for winning the Rocket Richard Trophy, it's time to look at our next five contestants...

Martin Straka, New York Rangers: Playing in the shadow of Jaromir Jagr and Brendan Shanahan can either be a curse or a blessing (depending on a player's ego), but for Straka, he seems to like it just fine. 15 goals at this point gives him a good chance to exceed his personal high of 35 goals in 1998-9, but challenging for the league lead is probably not in the cards. While his average Shot Quality is an outstanding 14.07% (9th best among the 150 players with at least 50 shots), his shooting percentage is a lofty 22.06%, a rate that is unlikely to continue for the next 5 months. While he gets plenty of even-strength and power play time to load up on offensive chances, he's clearly not the #1 option in this offense and is unlikely to exceed the 200-shot plateau by much, if any. The only way I see Straka contending for the Rocket Richard Trophy is for Jagr and/or Shanahan to get injured, requiring the Rangers to commit themselves to force-feeding Straka the puck. Prognosis: Not In The Running

Patrick Marleau, San Jose Sharks: Is this the year that Patrick Marleau breaks out big-time, exceeding his heretofore respectable goal-scoring totals to challenge the NHL's mightiest snipers? In a word, no. Don't get me wrong, he's a nice centerman who's just entering his prime years, but that 22.95% shooting percentage just screams "hot streak". His shot totals and ice time are down significantly from last year (he's getting 2 minutes less per game on the power play), so I'm guessing he'll end up somewhere in the low 30's again this season. Prognosis: Not In The Running

Jason Blake, New York Islanders: The surging Islanders are one of the NHL's pleasant surprises so far, and Blake's hot start has helped carry them to the top of the Atlantic Division. Here's another case of a hot shooter likely to cool off, however. At 33 years old, with a career-best shooting percentage of 9.88%, are we supposed to believe that his current rate of 17.5% will hold up? I don't think so. He does have the benefit of getting lots of shots, especially during the next few weeks while Alexei Yashin recovers from injury, and he's getting 1:23 more power play time per game than he received last year, so he's likely to crack the 30-goal mark for the first time this season. Getting to 40 would be a huge accomplishment, and who knows, perhaps a 20-year contract from the guys upstairs. Prognosis: Not In The Running

Simon Gagne, Philadelphia Flyers: Having scored 47 goals last year in 72 games, this 26 year-old certainly has the skill to compete with the best, and there is no secret to the formula which drives his production. He gets loads of shots (334 last year, on pace for 331 now), boasts a 12.84% shooting percentage that suggests he's scoring at a sustainable clip, and has seen a change in the makeup of his ice time, taking away a shift per game on the penalty kill, and getting an extra shift at even strength. Obviously, a healthy Peter Forsberg would help his cause greatly. Expect Gagne to climb through the rankings as hotter shooters cool off. Prognosis: Prime Contender

Chris Kunitz, Anaheim Ducks: With very little history to go on, one would be tempted to toss Kunitz's candidacy aside as another example of an overly hot shooter, like Chris Kontos back in 1992-3 with Tampa Bay (I wish I could find something online to back this up, but I remember him lighting up the league in the first couple months, then tailing off). However, Kunitz has a few intriguing aspects that might lead one to believe he's the real deal. His average Shot Quality comes in at 14.41%, 5th best among players with at least 50 shots, so while his current 21.21% shooting percentage might fall back, it probably won't be by much. He's also getting 4:26 on the power play each game, up from 2:04 last year, and with room for growth if Anaheim decides to reward his performance with more PP time. While I'm not ready to put him up there with the elite goal-scorers just yet, a 35-40 goal effort seems quite attainable this year, likely ensuring that his days of bouncing between the NHL and AHL are over. Prognosis: Unlikely To Contend

More Super-Sniper Analysis

Here's the second installment of our look at Maurice Richard Trophy contenders, presenting the seven players tied with 16 goals apiece:

Dany Heatley, Ottawa Senators: Heatley is already close to the pace he set last year while scoring 50 goals, so we know he's capable of putting up elite numbers over the long, 82-game haul. In fact, his numbers so far are almost a duplicate of 2005-6: total shots tracking towards 285 (vs. 300 last year), ice time per game at 20:32 vs. 21:09 last year, and roughly 5.5 minutes per game on the power play. The only real difference is that he's seeing virtually no penalty-killing time, and has picked up an additional minute per game of even-strength action. His shooting percentage stands at 17.02%, right in line with last year (16.67%), and not markedly different from his career mark of 15.68%. To Heatley's credit, he's keeping up the production in light of Ottawa's overall offensive decline. They're down to 3.52 goals per game from 3.80 last season, and unless that turns around, that drag could make the difference between 45 and 55 goals this year, more than enough to rob him of a chance at the prize. Prognosis: Steady, Second-Tier Contender

Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay Lightning: Having topped the 30-goal mark for the last three seasons, St. Louis seems poised to take another step forward this season. Like Marian Hossa, this seems to be mostly due to an increase in shots taken. St. Louis is headed for a 276-shot campaign, well above his career-high from last year of 221. His shooting percentage of 17.58% appears to be quite sustainable, given recent marks of 17.92% in 2003-4 and 16.42% the year before. His Shot Quality comes in at 14.57%, so he's taking very good shots to begin with. For example, roughly a third of shots are wristers between 11-20 feet, which, on average, go in 18% of the time (17.24% for him). This speaks volumes for his speed and offensive sense - he's not just piling up bucket loads of shots, he's consistently getting truly dangerous opportunities. The only real cause for concern is St. Louis' tremendous ice time. He's logging 24:39 per game this year, roughly a 4-shift-per-game increase from the previous two seasons which leads all forwards by more than a minute (Rod Brind'Amour is next at 23:34). You have to wonder how he'll hold up over the next several months. Prognosis: Dark Horse

Alexander Frolov, Los Angeles Kings: Cursed by the Pacific time zone starting times that keep him off most hockey writers' TV screens, Frolov hasn't gotten nearly enough credit for his strong start this season. Another player who's firing more shots on the net, Frolov is headed for a 235-shot season which would easily surpass his previous high of 174. His current shooting percentage of 19.28% has him among the early goal-scoring leaders, but that doesn't seem likely to last given his average Shot Quality of 12.72%. I'd expect that shooting percentage to come down closer to 15% over the course of the 82-game schedule, which still translates into a 30-35 goal season which represents genuine progress for Frolov and the L.A. Kings in general. Prognosis: Expected To Fade

Eric Staal, Carolina Hurricanes: Staal established himself as a premier NHL center last year racking up 45 goals and 100 points, and appears able to duplicate that performance this season. His ice time this year is comparable to last, year, except for a shift less on the penalty kill per game, and a shift more on the power play. That translates to a shooting pace slightly ahead of last season (on track for 319 vs. 279), along with a shooting percentage of 14.68%. His Shot Quality is basically average (10.07%), and there are some aspects of that overachieving Shooting Percentage that don't appear sustainable. For instance, he's currently 5-for-5 on Tip-In's. That's either a short-term statistical fluke (entirely likely) or a foible of the process by which the NHL records those plays (also entirely likely). I would expect a slight retraction in that shooting percentage, and a 40-45 goal season that makes plenty of Hurricanes fans happy, but leaves him well short of individual awards. Prognosis: Second-Tier Contender

Chris Drury, Buffalo Sabres: Drury seems to fall into the same category as Alexander Frolov and Thomas Vanek, hot shooters that don't appear likely to keep up the production all season long. Drury's current shooting percentage of 20.78% ranks 12th among NHL forwards, but his Shot Quality of 12.63% isn't anywhere near as spectacular. That tells me he's having some fortunate short-term success, and even an outstanding 17% shooting percentage (like he had last year) would take about 7 goals off his season total. If he keeps going at that clip, and gets off around 240 shots, he'll have a shot at his first 40-goal season. That's a great step forward for a guy who's basically seen as a "second line center", but making the next jump to actually leading the league in goal scoring is another matter entirely. Prognosis: Unlikely To Contend

Darcy Tucker, Toronto Maple Leafs: Power Play production has been the story so far for Tucker, who is currently tied for the league lead with 11 PP goals alongside Marian Hossa. Partial credit there has to go to Leafs defensemen Tomas Kaberle and Bryan McCabe, who are respectively 3rd and 4th in blueliner scoring. Tucker's shooting percentage of 20% is another that seems unsustainable over the long haul, given his average Shot Quality of 11.65%. A step back down toward the 15% mark, coupled with his current shooting pace for 234 shots, would yield a very respectable 35-goal total that represents a great accomplishment building off his career-best 28 goals from last year. A Rocket Richard Trophy is out of the question, however. Prognosis: Expected To Fade

Ryan Smyth, Edmonton Oilers: Unfortunately for Captain Canada, a broken thumb has landed him on injured reserve and basically wiped out any chance he had in this category. He seems to be another sniper off to an abnormally hot start, as his ice time and shot totals are basically in line with recent years (he's actually getting a minute per game less this year), but his shooting percentage is 21.62%, almost double his average Shot Quality of 11.66%. We could have reasonably expected his goal-scoring to cool off anyway, but with the double whammy of missing games due to injury, then trying to come back with an injured thumb, just getting back to 30 goals should be considered a major milestone. Prognosis: Out Of The Running

Monday, December 04, 2006

Handicapping the Rocket Richard Trophy

Now that we're getting into the middle portion of the NHL Regular Season, it's time to take a look at the league's leading goal-scorers, and assess their chances of keeping up the pace in the battle for the Maurice Richard Trophy. All too often, we've seen players come charging out of the gate with monster numbers in October and November, only to fade in the winter as teams settle into their routines and learn how best to shut down thier opponents. For today, I'm including the current top 5 players in goal scoring, and will follow up over the course of the week with the rest of the top 24 (down to a seven-way tie at 13 goals). When I refer to Shot Quality here, I'm using my version of the stat (slightly cruder than Alan Ryder's, but good enough for our purposes here) as detailed here*.

Marian Hossa, Atlanta Thrashers: Hossa quietly leads a diverse attack that's tearing up the Southeast along with Slava Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk, and Kovalchuk's presence on this list bodes well for them both keeping the production up. His current shooting percentage of 15.87% isn't out-of-this-world (he notched a 19.65% clip in 2002-3), so it's not like he's on a particularly hot streak. The major factor working in Hossa's favor is the number of shots he's taking. So far, he's on a pace for 369 shots, which would mark a personal high, over last year's 341. Hossa typically plays 80+ games a season, so his durability is unquestioned. This is an elite player with great supporting linemates and a team that expects him to lead the charge - he gets over 21 minutes of ice time per game, with 6 of it on the power play (where half his goals are coming). The stars seem aligned for him to have an MVP-type season. Prognosis: The Favorite

Brendan Shanahan, New York Rangers: Shanny has taken Broadway by storm early on, scoring goals, blocking shots, and providing the vocal leadership that fans adore. As opposed to last season in Detroit, Shanahan is getting 4.5 more minutes of ice time per game in New York. As you'd expect, part of that is extra power play time (6:05/game this year, 4:05/game last), but surprisingly, the bulk of it is on the penalty kill, where he's logging 2:49 nightly in shorthanded duty. In the interest of preserving him for the playoffs (where his production has disappointed the last three years), I imagine that workload will be reduced, but the scoring opportunities should still be there at even strength and on the power play. He's taking almost 5 shots a game this year (up from 3.5 last), and although his overall Shot Quality is merely 9.17%, his shooting percentage is an admirable 15.15%. This confirms the notion that Shanny is one of the league's better shooters. He's able to score more goals than you'd expect, given the shot type and distance. For example, a wrist shot between 11-20 feet typically scores 18% of the time, but Shanahan's rate is double that. Prognosis: Prime Contender

Thomas Vanek, Buffalo Sabres: This second-year sensation is lighting up the scoreboard, all while getting less playing time than the other contenders here (16:42/game, 2nd lowest among the top 24 goal scorers). Power play time is also relatively scarce for Vanek, as he gets less than four minutes of it per game - again, 2nd lowest among the top 24. What jumps off the page with Vanek is his shooting percentage of 20.99%, a huge jump over last year's 12.25%. His Shot Quality is a respectable 13.08%, so he's taking decent shots, but you just get the feeling here that a fall back to earth is in order for the young winger - over the course of the season, I'd expect that shooting percentage to come down closer to his Shot Quality. There's nothing wrong with taking 240 shots, shooting at a 15% clip, and racking up 36 goals in only your second NHL season. I just don't see this current level of sniping continuing all year. Prognosis: Expected To Fade

Ilya Kovalchuk, Atlanta Thrashers: While everyone obsesses over the hot rookies and second-year players in the NHL (the Post-Lockout Generation?), King Kovalchuk is back at the top of his game. Getting almost 8 minutes on the power play per game with the likes of Hossa and the unselfish and gifted Slava Kozlov (where, like Hossa, roughly 50% of his goals are coming), Kovalchuk has as good a chance as any at taking the Rocket Richard Trophy home for a second time. He's durable, takes a ton of shots, and is scoring at a reasonable pace (13.82% Shooting Percentage with a Shot Quality of 10.53%). His ice time is trending pretty similarly to last season, when he fell just 4 goals short of the prize, so you can bet he'll be in the running again this spring. Prognosis: Prime Contender

Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals: The best news for Ovechkin's chances is that he didn't get suspended for his recent hit on Daniel Briere - with this competition, any missed time is hard to make up. Ovechkin's advantage in this race is his prodigious shooting; he led the league last year with 425 shots, and is on pace to fire 419 this year. His Shot Quality is 12.29% and his Shooting Percentage 12.78% (very close to last year's numbers), so across the board, he's scoring at an average rate, but just taking more shots than anyone else. There's no particular reason to believe he won't continue at his current pace, and in fact he could get hot - so far this season, his snap shots just aren't going in (2 for 40), while the rest of his breakdowns are either average, or in line with what he did last year (his wrist shot continues to outperform). Prognosis: Prime Contender

*Basically I don't get into rebound opportunities, and look at shots grouped by ranges (1-10 feet, 11-20, etc.) rather than getting more granular. The end result is an estimate of how dangerous the shots are that a player is taking. Since, on average, about 10% of NHL shots go in, a player with a Shot Quality of 12% is taking higher-than-average quality shots, and a player with SQ of 8% is taking poorer shots. A large part of that can be due to position, since defensemen are expected to take lots of long slappers, so keep that in mind.

Edit: Thanks to Logan for pointing out corrections to my Hossa/Kozlov/Kovalchuk line comments.

Friday, December 01, 2006

Well, whattaya know?

I just wanted to draw your attention to a wonderful piece over at The Checking Line by Peter Tessier, in which he tries to determine just how much hockey fans really "know" about what it takes to succeed at the NHL level. While it shouldn't get in the way of good old fashioned barstool hockey sophistry, it's a useful reminder that there's so much more to fixing the problems of a team than merely giving the hot rookie more ice time or trading for a better goaltender.