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On the Forecheck: December 2005 - NHL Stats, Analysis, and Opinion

Thursday, December 15, 2005

First no "D" in Pittsburgh, now no "O"

It's open season on NHL coaches, and Eddie Olczyk is our first victim, having been shown the door Thursday by the Pittsburgh Penguins. Everybody who looked at their roster at the start of the year saw a potential offensive juggernaut with huge holes on defense, and unfortunately for Eddie O, the "potential" offense didn't materialize. The Penguins languish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference in Goals For, and with Mario Lemieux's continuing medical issues, it's doubtful that things are going to change quickly on that end. The best they can hope for is that Michel Therrien can introduce some discipline and defensive intensity so the team can at least compete on a regular basis.

The bottom line, however, is that the players bailed on Olczyk, and that's not a good sign. For a team with that much talent and experience to give up on a coach, either the coach was truly awful, or there are some malcontents in the locker room. Check back a month or two from now and we should have a better idea as to which is the case.

Speaking of coaches, take a look at this laugher of a column over at ESPN by Scott Burnside, in which he breathlessy writes, "Coach [Wayne] Gretzky has followed the same other-worldly career arc that defined him as a player." Wow, so Gretzky the Coach (16-13-2, 9th in the Western Conference) is following the same path as Gretzky the Player? Methinks Burnside has been sitting out in the desert staring at the sun for too long. The Coyotes are a mediocre team today, just as they have been for the last several years. If they earn home-ice advantage in the playoffs, and/or make some noise in the spring, then maybe it's time to get excited about Coach Gretzky. Until then, he's just another former player trying his luck behind the bench.

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

No "Y" in this Olympics

Today it's been reported that Steve Yzerman has removed himself from the Canadian Olympic roster. Unsatisfied with his production this season, he felt obligated to free up his spot for a more deserving player. I'm sure this will only add to speculation that he'll retire soon, perhaps even during the season. It's too bad that he won't get the send-off that an Olympics or All-Star Game appearance could provide - although that is probably the last thing that the Captain would want anyway.

Monday, December 05, 2005

Avoid the 'Roids

A true tempest-in-a-teapot erupted over the weekend when Dick Pound (stop that snickering) of the World Anti-Doping Agency told the London (Ontario) Free Press that "you wouldn't be far wrong if you said a third" of NHL players were using performance-enhancing drugs. Given the recent steroid scandals surrounding Major League Baseball, this was an incendiary remark to toss out there without any proof or substantiation, and the NHL is trying to put dampen the flames.

The problem, however, is that the message from NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman has sounded basically defensive so far - a demand that Pound document his claims. The venerable Don Cherry thinks it's time to call in the lawyers, which I'm sure will solve the whole mess, right?

What would be more encouraging would be to hear Bettman get out in front of the issue and talk about what the NHL is doing to control the use of performance enhancers in hockey, instead of merely reacting and claiming innocence - we've seen that already from the likes of Rafael Palmeiro, and similar sound bites just aren't that credible anymore.

Is there a steroid problem in hockey? That's doubtful - muscle mass just doesn't play the same role in hockey as it does in mashing home runs, but there are other performance-enhancers out there besides steroids. Amphetamines have long been rumored to be prevalent not just in hockey but other sports, as a way to keep players "up" during the course of a long, hard season (of which the NHL's is the longest, and arguably the hardest). Baseball is starting to take a harder stance on "greenies", but what about the NHL? Who knows? I checked NHL.com and found the press release covering drug testing, and while it sounds good (20 games suspension for 1st offense, 60 for 2nd, premanent for 3rd) the question remains, what is on the list of banned substances, and what is not? Is Pound going to come out with further information that disrupts what has been so far a very successful NHL season?

Whatever the case, the control of this issue is entirely in Dick Pound's hands (hehehe... I mean it, stop snickering) and Bettman is just along for the ride. That's not a situation that the commissioner wants to be in for very long.

Saturday, December 03, 2005

Is this Baseball???

Correct me if I'm wrong, but when all the aspects of the "new NHL" were being discussed, the only schedule impact that I remember was the increased emphasis on divisional rivalries. Now, you hear about teams playing opponents from the other conference for the first time this year - take a look at the expanded standings over at ESPN and you'll see that we've entered the equivalent of Major League Baseball's Interleague Play.

Not that this is entirely a bad thing, but it was surprising to find out. I wonder if Las Vegas offers a parlay on total combined win/loss between the conferences. The smart money would presumably be on the quicker Western Conference, but what do I know?

Friday, December 02, 2005

Round the first turn, heading for the back stretch...

As we've hit the quarter pole of the NHL regular season, it's time to reflect on how the "new NHL" is doing, as well as some of the major developments so far. In a nutshell, the game's great, the refs and players are still trying to find balance in terms of penalty calls, and the NHL made a huge mistake in going with OLN for their US television coverage.

Alright, alright - there's more detail than that:

The biggest news lately is the blockbuster deal that sent Joe Thornton on his way to San Jose for a trio of capable players. There's an interesting pair of articles over at NHL.com summarizing the deal. In short, Phil Coffey plays the idiotic "he who gets the best player wins the trade" card, and John McGourty makes the more salient observation that Boston management clearly favors speed over size, given the possibility of trading Sergei Samsonov instead.

The Ottawa Senators are off to an amazing start, but they'll still have plenty to prove come playoff time. Think 1996 Detroit Red Wings, at this point (62-win regular season, playoff loss to Colorado). Another similarity between the two teams is that currently, the Senators boast 5 of the top 6 spots in the Plus/Minus standings. Care to guess who accomplished that same feat for the '96 Wings? (answer below)

Next to death and taxes, one of the certainties of life was seeing the St. Louis Blues in the playoffs. Even if you're not a Blues fan, it's sad to see how far that franchise has fallen, and how quickly.

Before the start of the season, the common wisdom was that previous big-spending teams would be constrained by the salary cap and it was time for the meek to inherit the NHL. Tell that the Rangers and Red Wings, who both lead their respective divisions.

For all the hype that surrounds top draft picks, it's good to know that sometimes things actually work out. So far, Sid Crosby looks like the real deal, and the previous #1, Alex Ovechkin, looks as good if not better (given his supporting cast). Toss in the likes of Jason Spezza, Eric Staal, and Dany Heatley and it looks like we might well be entering a new era of NHL stars.

Following up on that point, Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press wonders if the Steve Yzerman era might end soon for the Red Wings. Let's hope at least that Yzerman contributes strongly in Turino before he calls it a career.

But at least the Sergei Fedorov "era" has begun in Columbus, right? Right? How long does anyone think this will last? I'm guessing that Fedorov will be traded later this season to a contender that needs help at center. He won't be motivated to play for a bottom-feeding expansion club (that isn't in California), and could fetch the Blue Jackets some value in a trade.

TRIVIA ANSWER: It was the Russian Five (Sergei Fedorov, Igor Larionov, Slava Kozlov, Slava Fetisov and Vladimir Konstantinov) who took 5 out of the top 6 spots in the 1995-96 Plus/Minus rankings. While I know this to be true, I haven't been able to find a link to post to substantiate it. Anyone care to verify? At Slam! Sports you can pull up final stats for that year, but they don't have the +/- leaders broken out.

Settling down in Predators Country...

The family is moved, the boxes are unpacked and the pictures are hung on the walls, so things have finally settled down to the point where I can focus on real priorities, like writing about hockey again! Just when I started to get this blog rolling I had a great job opportunity come up that involved relocating to Nashville, Tennessee, home of the up-and-coming Predators.

Seemingly tailor-made for the "new" NHL, the Preds have been a streaky team so far. Eight wins to start the year were followed by five losses, then five more consecutive victories. Hidden within those streaks were a number of overtime and shootout decisions, however, so the highs and lows are somewhat exaggerated here. Nashville should place a comfortable second in the Central Division behind the Red Wings and cause some serious noise come playoff time. This is a team that has made steady, incremental progress over the last few years, and is adding just enough star power (in Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan in particular) to be a dangerous opponent on any given night. The true test will be in seeing how all the young talent on this roster develops over the course of the season.

However it works out, I'm pretty lucky to have landed in an NHL city which has a team on the rise and is just starting to catch the sports fans' attention around here. In Tennessee, college football is #1 and #1a, but with the Volunteers' disappointing season and no bowl game to look forward to, along with the dismal performance of the NFL's Tennessee Titans, the sports spotlight locally should shift a few months earlier over to the Predators. I'm sure they're ready to load up the bandwagon with as many fair-weather fans as they can get, since (as we all know) once you get a fan into the building to see an NHL game, they'll see it from a whole new perspective and will likely come back for more.