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On the Forecheck: August 2005 - NHL Stats, Analysis, and Opinion

Thursday, August 25, 2005

Heatley's Gamble

When I went out of town for a week on business, I figured that the big player moves were over and done with. Then, lo and behold, I come back to find Marian Hossa with a new deal, then subsequently traded to Atlanta for Dany Heatley, who is apparently looking for a fresh start after the Dan Snyder tragedy of two years ago. At first bluff, this might appear to be a heartwarming case of NHL general managers finding a way to help a troubled young man and benefit their franchises as well with a win-win deal. Upon closer inspection, however, the story appears more disturbing.

Take a look over at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, for example (free registration required), and you'll find a story by Jeff Schulz that outlines a disturbing trend in Heatley's behavior over the last year or so - hiring and firing agents, spending as little time in Atlanta as possible despite the support offered by the team and community, and finally a trade demand away from a young team on the rise that seemed positioned for greater things under his leadership.

In Ottawa, of course, the perspective is quite different. Heatley is thrilled to be playing in a town that cares about hockey, and the chance to play for a Stanley Cup contender. That optimism sounds incredibly shallow, however. Nobody asks for a trade just to play in a hockey-first sports town, and 24 year-olds typically don't demand trades to championship-caliber teams, especially when they are with a talented young squad that just picked up a proven veteran winner like Bobby Holik.

Something more serious appears to be at work here, and that is hardly surprising. An incident like the one that killed Dan Snyder and seriously injured Heatley leaves lasting psychological scars, that manifest themselves in various ways and at various times. Recall the sad story of Sheldon Kennedy, a talented young forward whose career was constantly thwarted by alcoholism in the wake of earlier sexual molestation at the hands of a junior coach. A fatal car crash isn't the same as sexual abuse, but the lasting psychological effects can be similar - alienation & instability can arise unexpectedly (I'm no psychologist, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night). In short, I wonder whether the move to Ottawa will actually help Heatley in the long run. We can only hope for the best, but only time will tell.

Looking purely at the competitive aspects of the trade, you'd have to think that the Thrashers scored a major coup - they acquire a proven MVP candidate entering the prime of his career, along with a dependable veteran defenseman, for a talented but troubled young talent who seems just as likely to realize his potential as to face further struggles that will make NHL hockey look like a walk in the park. While everyone wishes the best for Heatley, we certainly haven't heard the last of this story. Look ahead to January 2nd, when the Senators head to Atlanta and Dany returns to the city and team that did everything it could to extend forgiveness, yet saw him ask for the first ticket out of town in response.

Thursday, August 18, 2005

The NHL heads Outdoors

Apparantly, ESPN doesn't believe in a national TV market for the NHL, and based on past experience, perhaps they're right. Hockey has always relied more on strong local markets, rather than a national presence, to build its fanbase and that is likely to continue in the years ahead. The league will have enough of a job to win back local fans, let alone worry about a wider audience.

For most fans, the move of national games to the Outdoor Life Network won't be a big deal - local games aren't affected, and most of the small ESPN audience has access to OLN as well. Where hockey fans might well win is if OLN invests in the NHL, as Comcast builds a potential rival to ESPN in the sports TV market. That could mean special events (more outdoor games?), new on-air talent (bring on Don Cherry!), or a host of other changes to help grow hockey in the US (just not the glowing puck, please).

The most interesting thing to watch for in the coming weeks is who OLN brings in to handle the on-air duties. ESPN had improved their hockey telecasts remarkably over the past few years, and hopefully we won't go back to square one over at OLN.

Tuesday, August 16, 2005

Hawks, Rangers develop "mad skillz"

In a bold, innovative move, the Chicago Blackhawks have added Olympic champion speedskater Dan Jansen to their coaching staff, in a bid to improve the team's collective skating skills. In related news, the New York Rangers have added an Olympic champion to their staff as well.

LeClair goes to the Pens

The Pittsburgh Penguins seem to be making a serious push not just towards respectability, but may have an eye towards pushing Philadelphia, Ottawa and Tampa Bay in the Eastern Conference with their additional pickup Monday of John LeClair. The three-time 50 goal scorer may be well past his prime, but even as a niche power play specialist, he can add significantly to the Pittsburgh offense, at was is likely to be a rock-bottom cost. Remember that LeClair was bought out of his prior contract by the Flyers, so he's already got $4.5 million in his pocket before even signing with Pittsburgh.

What this means is that the Penguins can boast two dangerous scoring lines, which prevents opposing defenses from simply focusing on Mario Lemieux or Ziggy Palffy in order to shut Pittsburgh down. Over the course of a long season, that depth could prove enough to lift the Penguins back into the playoffs, perhaps even earning home ice in the first round.

Friday, August 12, 2005

Over the Mountain

Watch out! There's something rolling down the mountains in Denver, threatening to leave wreckage in its wake that will take years to rebuild. Yup, its the Colorado Avalanche, and their freefall through the Western Conference standings this year will make fans everywhere want to take cover.

Granted, Colorado is one of the teams that the new CBA was meant to restrain - the Avalanche have usually boasted a star-studded lineup skillfully assembled by GM Pierre Lacroix. In the wake of this month's free agency losses, however, the 'Lanche will have a tough time living up to their own lofty expectations. Peter Forsberg's departure was perhaps inevitable, if they were to keep Sakic, Blake, and the dynamic duo that represents the core of Colorado's future - Milan Hejduk and Alex Tanguay. The problem is that those top four players consume $20 million against Colorado's salary cap, a concentration only exceeded by the Toronto Maple Leafs. But even that figure for Toronto includes Owen Nolan's salary, which is disputed between the player and team.

The end result is that the Avalanche could have depth problems unless they are able to snag some quality players on the cheap out of the remaining free agents out there. They did it once when they snagged Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne, so I wouldn't rule the possibility out. But as it stands, Patrice Brisebois is no replacement for Adam Foote, neither on the ice or in that locker room - and that's not a slam on Brisebois, but Foote has been a strong presence on that team since their days in Quebec. And an aging Pierre Turgeon is certainly no replacement for Forsberg. In addition, the salary cap will make the trading-deadline shopping spree a thing of the past; no longer will teams load up with All-Star talent for a playoff run, since buyers and sellers have a cap to consider.

In reality, the toughest thing in store for the Avalanche is an improved Northwest division. Vancouver and Calgary will naturally be tough, but Edmonton also has made some nice improvements, making this a true four-team race (shhh... the Minnesota Wild are still sleeping). It will be a major accomplishment for Colorado to simply secure home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs, let alone contend for the top spot in the West. Given the heights at which the Avalanche have typically played for the last ten years, that's a new reality that fans will have to get used to.

Thursday, August 11, 2005

Putting a big E in "Leafs"

The Toronto Maple Leafs finally opened up the checkbook and signed Eric Lindros to a one-year deal. This is a great pickup for the Leafs, especially if the $1.55 million base salary reported in the article is true. For such a small risk (heck, Darcy Tucker makes more than that), the upside is tremendous. With the earlier signing of Jason Allison, that gives the Leafs quite possibly the best 1-2-3 center combination in the NHL behind Mats Sundin.

Something's rising from the ashes, and it isn't Phoenix...

Heading over to the Western Conference, our review of the offseason winners and losers comes up with one of the winners: the Chicago Blackhawks.

Wait a minute, did I actually just write that?

It's been a decade since the Jeremy Roenick-led Hawks challenged for Western Conference supremacy, and while they're still a long ways from doing that, the moves they've made over the last two weeks should help put Chicago back into the playoffs, and represent true progress under new general manager Dave Tallon.

After making unsuccessful offers to Mike Modano and Peter Forsberg, the Hawks struck gold in the Nikolai Khabibulin sweepstakes. The Bulin Wall still ranks as one of the top goalies in the game, and immediately gives Chicago a chance to win every time he starts. In front of Khabibulin, the Hawks added depth and versatility on the blueline by adding Adrian Aucoin and Jaroslav Spacek via free agency. Granted, they did let Bryan Berard walk away, but on the whole Spacek and Aucoin add talent to what was otherwise an unremarkable group of defensemen.

Up front, the Hawks are still looking for that All-Star caliber center, but still have $10 million under the cap to pursue a player like Eric Lindros or Anson Carter. The most significant addition they have made on the wing is Martin Lapointe, a veteran and Stanley Cup champion who understands the little things that make the difference between winning and losing. That experience is sorely needed, to complement a core of relatively young forwards. They boast four returning 20-goal scorers (assuming they re-sign Tyler Arneson), of which the eldest is 30 year-old Eric Daze (the other 3 are no older than 26).

Overall, the Hawks have taken a big step forward this month. They've brought in enough talent to legitimately compete for the playoffs, and are positioned well under the salary cap to acquire the remaining pieces they need, such as a top-line center and more depth on defense. Putting the team in position to play meaningful hockey games is the best thing that a GM can do for young talent, rather than have them toil in the basement in a never-ending rebuilding effort. Look for Chicago to make some noise this upcoming season, and watch out for how they develop going forward.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Beautiful Losers

The other day I noted the Pittsburgh Penguins as having a successful offseason. Now, in order to balance out the yin & yang of NHL team assesments, here comes our first loser - the Philadelphia Flyers.

*gasp* But what about the big names, you say? Forsberg, Hatcher and Rathje all make for sensational headlines and will sell a lot of jerseys, but if you look at this team compared to the one which fell just short in the conference finals against Tampa Bay, you don't see much improvement. It's like a guy in a rowboat with just one oar - there may be a lot of splashing, but not much movement in a particular direction.

Arguably their best player from last season signed with Pittsburgh during the summer of 2004, veteran scorers John LeClair and Tony Amonte were bought out, and Jeremy Roenick was unceremoniously dumped in LA in order to clear cap space. Backup goaltender Sean Burke signed on with the Lightening, putting the team's future on the young shoulders of Robert Esche, who remains unsigned as a restricted free agent.

Bottom line, the Flyers have replaced one set of All-Star caliber players with another set, but in reality the new blood has just as many questions as the old. Can the new defensemen (each 6'5" and 230 lbs.) keep up in what is expected to be a faster-paced, up-and-down type of game? Will Forsberg stay healthy and motivated? What about longtime Flyers defenseman Eric Desjardins? His offensive production has steadily declined since 2001, and at age 36, that trend should only continue.

Not all is gloom and doom in Philly, of course. Michal Handzus and Simon Gagne are two forwards in their prime that any team would like to have, and Keith Primeau can hopefully springboard off his first truly productive playoff run to lead the Flyers with confidence.

What you'll see in most other NHL coverage, however, is a focus on the fresh talent walking in the door, rather than a comparison with what has left. On balance, I don't see Philadelphia as a markedly better team. If anything, their defense will be slower, the talent at forward less deep, and unless they land a quality backup, the goaltending will be a question mark. There will plenty of excitement in Philly as the season gets started, but I suspect that by the Olympic break fans will regret these signings, because in the salary cap era, the fix won't be as easy as just loading up at the trading deadline for a Cup run.

Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Pass the Remote, eh?

It appears that a cable TV deal is getting closer for the NHL. Comcast has supposedly submitted a bid that has national games broadcast on the Outdoor Life Network, which recently gained attention for its coverage of the Tour de France. ESPN has the right to match the deal, but either way, it looks like there will be a cable deal in place for the upcoming season.

Who knows, if OLN gets the business perhaps it will attempt more "special event" outdoor games, like the Heritage Classic game of November 22, 2003 when Edmonton faced Montreal in Edmonton's Commonwealth Stadium. That game drew an NHL-record crowd of 57,167. Can you imagine how many people might attend a Wings/Blackhawks game at Michigan Stadium, or a Rangers/Devils game at Giants Stadium, or a Coyotes/Sharks game at... err... never mind...

Monday, August 08, 2005

Mario On The March

Just as the movie industry has been surprised by the unexpected hit March of the Penguins, hockey fans might be surprised at the march of the Pittsburgh Penguins this coming season. The new CBA has allowed many small market teams to pick up top-drawer talent, but the Penguins seem to have a plan in place to compete right away in the "new" NHL.

The headline grabber, of course, was when they lucked out and landed Sidney Crosby with the top pick in the draft, but since then their free agency pickups point to a desire to surround Crosby with high-powered offensive talent, which will not only help the rookie's development, but should put some fannies in the seats, which Pittsburgh sorely needs after its awful 2003-4 campaign. The first step in launching the offense is get the puck moving out of your own zone, and few do it better than Sergei Gonchar, who was Pittsburgh's first big acquisition this month. Over the weekend, they also added Ziggy Palffy, who is a legitimate scoring title threat. Combine that with a Mario Lemiuex who has had plenty of time to heal, and you've got the makings of a league-leading power play. Perhaps there is no greater sign of Lemieux's optimism for the team is his retention of majority ownership in the Penguins, when it was expected that he and his group would sell out majority rights to an outside investor.

One addition which snuck under the radar, however, is Mark Recchi, who returned to the Pens by signing a multi-year contract in July of 2004, after the last regular season and before the lockout. So that means Pittsburgh has added Crosby, Palffy, Gonchar and Recchi to the squad. There is still much to be done before Pittsburgh challenges for Eastern Conference supremacy, but at the very least the Penguins will put a competitive, entertaining team on the ice this season.

Thursday, August 04, 2005

Sleeping Beauties

While we're all hung up on the volume and quality of players changing teams these days, it's also interesting to consider those teams that haven't made significant changes this week - like Toronto, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Phoenix, and Washington. One strategy at work could be to lie low during the initial signing period, then drive hard bargains on the remaining players available, leaving cap room open for making deals during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, there will be many teams for whom things don't work out, and they'll be looking to dump salaries and position themselves for the next offseason.

As they say, sometimes the best deal a GM makes is the one that he doesn't make at all...

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Blue Line Specials Going Fast

The big names are starting to move, as Tuesday night the Blues traded Chris Pronger to the Edmonton Oilers for a package headlined by defenseman Eric Brewer. With Tony Amonte and Darren McCarty signing up with the Calgary Flames, could we see a rejuvenation of the Battle of Alberta? One big name that didn't move is Markus Naslund, who signed a new 3-year deal to stay in Vancouver. It seems like the western Canada teams are loading up so far, with Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa yet to announce major acquisitions.

Another top defenseman with a new address will be Sergei Gonchar, who landed a 5-year deal to join the Mario & Sidney show in Pittsburgh. This is one of those daring deals that could backfire on the Pens, if Gonchar's $5 million salary causes cap issues down the road. Most of the contracts signed in recent days have been for two, perhaps three years, but in this case the Pens may have needed to offer a longer deal just to attract top-notch talent. Gonchar's a great pickup for Pittsburgh, though, as they need puck-moving defensemen to get the offense rolling and foster Crosby's development.

The Islanders also filled Adrian Aucoin's spot by signing Alexei Zhitnik to a four-year sentence, err, contract, to play on Long Island.

While the main focus during these days is on the famous names moving back and forth, stay tuned for a series of division-by-division reviews next week.

Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Clarke Loads Up

The Flyers have apparently landed Derian Hatcher, Chris Therien and Mike Rathje, in signings to be announced today. Apparantly, Bobby Clarke went with the Super-Size Blue Line Combo - but the question here will be, is Clarke zigging while the rest of the NHL zags? After major rule changes that are meant to increase north-south play and open up the game, does it make sense to load up on big, physical (read: slow footed) defensemen? Hatcher is a treat to watch, to be sure, but could become more of a liability as teams stretch the neutral zone with two-line passes to streaking wingers.

If I'm a Flyers fan, I don't feel too good about this. Clarke could be holding on to his Broad Street Bullies memories a bit too much here.

Attention, blue line shoppers...

After a lackluster Day One of the free agency period, things have started heating up today. The Chicago Blackhawks made a fine pickup by signing Adrian Aucoin to a four-year contract, and the Columbus Blue Jackets made an even bigger splash by landing Adam Foote with a three-year deal. Both are solid top-line defensemen, but Foote has the added leadership experience with two Stanley Cup rings from Colorado. This is also a huge loss for the Avalanche, for whom Foote provided physical toughness that is otherwise lacking within that lineup.

Check back later today, as the Flyers have called a press conference to announce "several signings". What, are they bringing in the Hansen Brothers? I don't know how tin foil expenses count against the salary cap...

Monday, August 01, 2005

Panthers are first out of the gate...

ESPN is reporting that the Florida Panthers have signed aged forwards Joe Nieuwendyk and Gary Roberts to 2-year, $2.25 million contracts, kicking off the free agency extravaganza. This won't get anybody too excited, I hope, but it does help to set the bar for other signings to come. Two veteran, reasonably effective players hiring on for right around the $1 million mark should send a strong signal to other available players that big paydays are a thing of the past (that means you, Martin Lapointe).

As a result of this deal, you have to like the experience that Florida is bringing in to work with their promising young talent, while Toronto is retooling around younger players like Jeff O'Neill. The Panthers hope that Roberts and Nieuwendyk don't just score a few goals, but help their core talent develop into solid NHL players able to carry the team forward in future years.

Gentleman, start your checkbooks!

Like a pack of teeny-boppers huddled outside a record store waiting for the latest boy-band CD, NHL general managers breathlessly await the Monday noon starting gun for the most wide-open free agent market in the history of professional sports. There is just one problem here, though. The GM's are breathless not in anticipation of all the deals they hope to make, but instead are petrified at the thought of making a bad move, which in the new salary cap era, means a hamstrung team for years on end. The penalty for making a rotten deal just got much, much worse, so I would expect most GM's to tread very cautiously in the coming days.

That, of course, leads open an opportunity for a daring executive who strikes quickly and gets the pieces he wants right away. Most teams have as much as half of a roster to fill via free agency, which means that a team can be overhauled virtually overnight. Will the new rules, and their implied shift back towards up-and-down, firewagon hockey result in wholesale changes for certain teams? For instance, could we finally see an implementation of the Swedish "torpedo" system that was toyed with in recent years by Scotty Bowman? One of the main reasons he gave for not using it in the NHL was the two-line offsides pass rule, which has now been scrapped.

Either way, the next few weeks will be a hot-stove leaguer's dream, considering the depth of talent available at every position. Cup-winning goalies, former MVP's, 50-goal scorers, elite young talent and scrappy defensemen are all available. Too bad the NHL didn't hook up eBay on this one - it could have made for a good promotion and some fun commercials. I could just see Bobby Clarke throwing his PC out the window after getting outbid at the last second on some knuckle-dragging, slack-jawed goon.

Dudes are SO hung over...

In a move that endeared him to slackers everywhere, NHL commish Gary Bettman hit the snooze alarm on the free agency signing period, moving the start from 12 a.m. Monday morning to noon. Obviously everybody had such a rockin' time in Ottawa over the weekend that an early bedtime with milk & cookies was deemed necessary.